al-brooks-course
43D - Trading Tight Bull Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 43D - Trading Tight Bull Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 23
- Transcript segments: 674
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading in Tight Bull Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易窄上涨通道的最后一节课（共4节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: The first thing I want to talk about is how to buy
ZH: 首先我想讲的是在窄上涨通道中如何买入
00:16 - 00:18
EN: when you have a Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 首先我想讲的是在窄上涨通道中如何买入
00:19 - 00:22
EN: Next I want to talk about management – where do you put your stops
ZH: 接下来我会讲如何管理——止损放在哪里
00:22 - 00:25
EN: and when do you take profits? And finally, it’s important to realize
ZH: 还有什么时候止盈？ 最后，关键是要意识到
00:25 - 00:30
EN: that all Tight Channels eventually evolve into Trading Ranges.
ZH: 所有的窄通道最终都会演变成震荡区间
Slide 002
Time: 00:31
Bilingual Transcript
00:37 - 00:39
EN: The channel here is fairly tight.
ZH: 这里的通道非常窄
00:39 - 00:41
EN: The pullbacks are only a bar.
ZH: 回调只有1根K线
00:41 - 00:44
EN: Here we didn’t even pull back below the low of the prior bar,
ZH: 这里甚至没有跌破前1根K线的低点
00:44 - 00:47
EN: and here we got a brief pullback.
ZH: 这里也是很短暂的回调，幅度很小
00:46 - 00:47
EN: Not very deep.
ZH: 这里也是很短暂的回调，幅度很小
00:47 - 00:49
EN: The channel is tight.
ZH: 通道很窄
00:49 - 00:54
EN: On a higher timeframe chart it’s a breakout, and you trade it like a breakout,
ZH: 在更高时间周期的K线图上，它就是一次突破， 可以像交易突破一样去交易它
00:54 - 00:59
EN: which means you should focus on buying
ZH: 也就是说你应该专注于买入做多，而不要考虑做空
00:56 - 00:59
EN: instead of looking to trade in both directions.
ZH: 也就是说你应该专注于买入做多，而不要考虑做空
01:00 - 01:03
EN: At this point we have a breakout and then a follow-through
ZH: 这里突破了，而且有跟随
01:03 - 01:07
EN: and then another follow-through bar, and we tried to reverse back down
ZH: 然后是连续第3根阳线，尝试反转下跌
01:07 - 01:10
EN: but we found support at the top of the Trading Range.
ZH: 但是回测区间上沿，获得了支撑
01:10 - 01:14
EN: We do not yet know if it’s going to be a Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 此时还不知道它是不是窄上涨通道
01:14 - 01:19
EN: but the breakout’s strong enough so that the odds are traders
ZH: 但突破足够强势，所以很大的概率至少会有第2段上涨
01:17 - 01:19
EN: will get at least a second leg up.
ZH: 但突破足够强势，所以很大的概率至少会有第2段上涨
01:20 - 01:25
EN: Here, here, here, at this point we have 7 bars with Higher Lows,
ZH: 这里，这里，这里，连续7根K线的低点抬高
01:25 - 01:30
EN: 6 or 7 bars with Higher Lows, and it is an early Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这是窄上涨通道的初期阶段
01:30 - 01:34
EN: If you buy for any reason after this initial rally,
ZH: 如果你在突破之后的某个地方买入了，
01:34 - 01:38
EN: your initial stop is going to be below the most recent strong breakout.
ZH: 你的初始止损就在最近一次强势突破的起涨点下方
01:38 - 01:40
EN: Once you get another breakout, you can use a tighter stop
ZH: 一旦有新的突破，你就可以抬高止损
01:40 - 01:43
EN: below the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 移动到最近一个重要低点的下方
01:43 - 01:49
EN: (A major Higher Low is a Higher Low
ZH: （如果后面强势突破创新高，那么它就是重要的低点）
01:45 - 01:49
EN: where you have a strong breakout, usually to a new high.)
ZH: （如果后面强势突破创新高，那么它就是重要的低点）
01:53 - 01:55
EN: Let’s say you’re planning on buying this close.
ZH: 假设你计划在它的收盘买入
01:56 - 02:00
EN: The first thing you have to look at is where a logical stop would be,
ZH: 首先要明确合理的止损在哪里
02:00 - 02:02
EN: and it would be below the bottom of the breakout
ZH: 它应该在突破的起涨点下方
02:02 - 02:04
EN: - maybe below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 或者在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
02:05 - 02:11
EN: Once you’re confident that the market is going to have
ZH: 只要你认为市场至少会有第2段上涨， 就可以直接市价买入
02:07 - 02:11
EN: at least a second leg higher, it’s reasonable to go ahead
ZH: 只要你认为市场至少会有第2段上涨， 就可以直接市价买入
02:10 - 02:11
EN: and just buy at the market.
ZH: 只要你认为市场至少会有第2段上涨， 就可以直接市价买入
02:11 - 02:14
EN: As soon as you see this bar close, you hit “Buy the Market”
ZH: 这根K线一收盘，你就点击“市价买入”
02:14 - 02:17
EN: and you’ll get filled on the open of the next bar.
ZH: 你的订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
02:17 - 02:25
EN: Or you can place a buy the market order a second
ZH: 或者你可以在K线收盘前一两秒买入， 然后依赖合理的止损
02:20 - 02:25
EN: or two before the bar closes and simply rely on your stop.
ZH: 或者你可以在K线收盘前一两秒买入， 然后依赖合理的止损
02:25 - 02:30
EN: At this point there’s a high probability that you’ll get some kind
ZH: 此时有很高的概率，市场会涨到某个MM目标位， 比如基于突破的高度——
02:28 - 02:30
EN: of a Measured Move up based upon the height of this breakout
ZH: 此时有很高的概率，市场会涨到某个MM目标位， 比如基于突破的高度——
02:30 - 02:36
EN: - maybe from the open of the first bar to the close of the second bar,
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘价，到第2根K线的收盘价， 往上翻一倍，大约在这里
02:34 - 02:36
EN: which would be somewhere up here.
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘价，到第2根K线的收盘价， 往上翻一倍，大约在这里
02:41 - 02:44
EN: Once the market starts channeling up – here we have a Micro Channel.
ZH: 市场开始进入上涨通道——这里是一个微通道
02:45 - 02:51
EN: Micro Channel means the low of a bar is above or at the low of the prior bar,
ZH: 微通道的意思是每一根K线的低点，都高于等于前一根K线的低点
02:51 - 02:57
EN: and at this point we have 4, 5, 6, 7 bars where every low is either at
ZH: 此时，已经有4、5、6、7根K线， 每根K线的低点都在抬高
02:55 - 02:57
EN: or above the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 此时，已经有4、5、6、7根K线， 每根K线的低点都在抬高
02:57 - 02:59
EN: That’s a sign of a strong bull.
ZH: 这是多头强势的信号
02:59 - 03:04
EN: It’s a Tight Channel, and on a higher timeframe chart it is a breakout.
ZH: 这个窄通道在更高的时间周期上就是一次突破
03:05 - 03:08
EN: And therefore you can trade it exactly like you would a breakout.
ZH: 因此你可以像交易突破一样交易它
03:08 - 03:10
EN: Buy for any reason.
ZH: 用任何方式买入
03:15 - 03:19
EN: There’s one thing that’s different between a Tight Channel and a breakout.
ZH: 窄通道和突破之间存在一个区别
03:19 - 03:22
EN: Even though it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 尽管它在更高的时间周期就是突破
03:22 - 03:26
EN: in general it’s better to buy reversal attempts.
ZH: 但通常来说，在反转下跌时买入会更好
03:26 - 03:28
EN: You buy when the market is trying to go down,
ZH: 你可以在市场下跌时买入
03:28 - 03:32
EN: so you buy with limit orders below this bar, or now we have a pullback
ZH: 比如在这根K线的下方挂限价买单， 或者在回调之后
03:32 - 03:36
EN: and you can buy a reversal up rather than buying above this high.
ZH: 在恢复上涨时买入，而不是在这个高点上方买入
Slide 003
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:45 - 03:48
EN: At this point you know there’s going to be a second leg up,
ZH: 这个时候，你知道会有第2段上涨
03:48 - 03:50
EN: and then at this point and then through here,
ZH: 然后到了这里、这里，
03:50 - 03:52
EN: you know you have a Tight Bull Channel
ZH: 你知道市场处于窄上涨通道
03:52 - 03:54
EN: and you’re probably going quite a bit higher.
ZH: 大概率还能再涨一些
03:55 - 04:02
EN: You know it’s going higher; therefore, that means you have
ZH: 如果你认为它会上涨，说明你心中的确定性至少有60%
03:59 - 04:02
EN: at least a 60% confidence that it’s going higher
ZH: 如果你认为它会上涨，说明你心中的确定性至少有60%
04:02 - 04:04
EN: - yet it never really feels like 60%.
ZH: ——当然，实际上感觉不到有60%那么自信 （注：因为总是害怕失败）
04:04 - 04:09
EN: But as a trader, 60% certainty is as good as it gets,
ZH: 但对于交易者而言，60%的概率已经很好了
04:09 - 04:12
EN: and therefore you have to figure out how to buy.
ZH: 因此你必须学习如何买入
04:14 - 04:21
EN: An obvious choice is just buy at the market, or buy the close
ZH: 最直接的方法就是市价买入， 或者在K线收盘的时候买入——早几秒晚几秒都可以
04:18 - 04:21
EN: or right around the close, right before or right after the bar closes.
ZH: 最直接的方法就是市价买入， 或者在K线收盘的时候买入——早几秒晚几秒都可以
04:21 - 04:23
EN: You can buy the breakout close.
ZH: 可以在突破大阳线的收盘买入
04:23 - 04:29
EN: Better yet, higher probability to buy the close
ZH: 更高胜率的做法是，在跟随阳线的收盘买入
04:26 - 04:29
EN: of a follow-through bull bar or the bar after that.
ZH: 更高胜率的做法是，在跟随阳线的收盘买入
04:33 - 04:36
EN: The bears are trying to reverse the trade,
ZH: 空头尝试反转趋势
04:36 - 04:43
EN: but the odds even after this big bear bar are that we’ll get
ZH: 就算在这个大阴线出现之后，仍然大概率会有小的第2段上涨， 因此你可以在阴线的收盘买入
04:40 - 04:43
EN: at least a small second leg up, and therefore you can buy the bear close,
ZH: 就算在这个大阴线出现之后，仍然大概率会有小的第2段上涨， 因此你可以在阴线的收盘买入
04:43 - 04:46
EN: betting that it will not totally reverse the breakout.
ZH: 押注突破不会被完全反转
04:47 - 04:51
EN: We have 3 consecutive bull bars here, a bad sell signal bar
ZH: 连续3根阳线，以及糟糕的做空信号K
04:51 - 04:53
EN: - this is a bull inside bar.
ZH: ——它是一个多头孕线
04:54 - 04:59
EN: That lowers the probability that this will be a successful failed breakout
ZH: 所以这不太可能是一次失败的突破， 不太可能是下降趋势的开始
04:58 - 04:59
EN: and the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 所以这不太可能是一次失败的突破， 不太可能是下降趋势的开始
04:59 - 05:08
EN: It’s more likely a 50% pullback of this rally and a test of the breakout point
ZH: 这更有可能只是50%回调，回测突破点—— 这些高点和这个十字星的高点
05:04 - 05:08
EN: - these highs and the high of this doji bar.
ZH: 这更有可能只是50%回调，回测突破点—— 这些高点和这个十字星的高点
05:11 - 05:15
EN: If you cannot decide what to do and you see it starting to reverse up,
ZH: 如果你无法决定该怎么做，但是看到市场开始恢复上涨
05:15 - 05:19
EN: you simply buy the market, and that is a very easy way to trade.
ZH: 直接市价买入，这是最简单直接的做法
05:19 - 05:22
EN: You know where the stop is; you just buy the market.
ZH: 你已经知道止损应该放在哪里，所以市价买入即可
05:22 - 05:24
EN: You don’t know that it’s going all the way up here,
ZH: 你不知道市场会不会一直涨到这里，
05:24 - 05:29
EN: but you know that there’s a high probability, better than 60%, it’s going up.
ZH: 但你知道至少有60%的概率，市场会继续上涨
Slide 004
Time: 05:35
Bilingual Transcript
05:39 - 05:45
EN: Beginners naturally are afraid to buy
ZH: 上涨趋势下跌的时候，新手往往不敢买入，这很正常
05:42 - 05:45
EN: when the market is falling in a bull trend, and that’s reasonable.
ZH: 上涨趋势下跌的时候，新手往往不敢买入，这很正常
05:45 - 05:50
EN: But the math is still good to take the buy if you rely on your stop.
ZH: 但要知道，买入并依赖止损，在数学上是有优势的
05:54 - 05:58
EN: Buying pullbacks is always a good strategy whenever you’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 在上涨趋势中，买回调永远都是一个好的策略
05:59 - 06:05
EN: Also, betting that bear reversals will fail
ZH: 此外，押注空头反转会失败、会变成牛旗， 也是一个好的策略
06:02 - 06:05
EN: and become bull flags is also a good strategy.
ZH: 此外，押注空头反转会失败、会变成牛旗， 也是一个好的策略
06:09 - 06:13
EN: Here, for the bears, they’re hoping that the breakout will fail.
ZH: 对于空头来说，他们希望突破会失败
06:14 - 06:22
EN: However, the odds of it failing after 3 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 然而，连续3根阳线，而且做空信号K是阳线， 突破失败的概率就很小了
06:17 - 06:22
EN: and with this being a bull bar for the sell signal bar are small,
ZH: 然而，连续3根阳线，而且做空信号K是阳线， 突破失败的概率就很小了
06:22 - 06:25
EN: and therefore probably buyers below the low of this bar,
ZH: 所以在它的下方，很可能有非常多的买盘
06:25 - 06:28
EN: and you can place a limit order to buy at the low of that bar.
ZH: 因此你可以在它的低点挂限价买单
06:28 - 06:30
EN: You get filled here, and stop down here.
ZH: 你在这里成交买入，止损在这里
06:34 - 06:39
EN: You could also buy a 1 or 2 point pullback below a strong close.
ZH: 也可以在强势阳线收盘价的下方一两个点挂限价买单
06:39 - 06:41
EN: Strong close here, strong close there.
ZH: 强势收盘，强势收盘
06:41 - 06:44
EN: Just place a limit order to buy 1 or 2 points down.
ZH: 在下方一两个点的地方挂限价买单
06:48 - 06:54
EN: Then you have a strong bear bar, but the bears need more
ZH: 接着出现了一根大阴线，但空头需要跟随才能制造反转
06:52 - 06:54
EN: than 1 bar to create a reversal.
ZH: 接着出现了一根大阴线，但空头需要跟随才能制造反转
06:54 - 07:02
EN: This is more likely a test of the breakout point, than it is the start
ZH: 这更有可能是对突破点的测试，而不是下降趋势的开始， 所以你可以直接买大阴线的收盘
06:59 - 07:02
EN: of a bear trend, and therefore, again, you could simply buy the close.
ZH: 这更有可能是对突破点的测试，而不是下降趋势的开始， 所以你可以直接买大阴线的收盘
07:02 - 07:06
EN: As soon as you see the bar close, you just hit “Buy the Market.”
ZH: K线一收盘，你就点击“市价买入”
07:06 - 07:08
EN: Again, stop down here.
ZH: 同样，止损也是在这里
Slide 005
Time: 07:10
Bilingual Transcript
07:15 - 07:22
EN: Because it’s a channel, it’s not likely to have
ZH: 因为这是一个通道，所以不太可能出现连续10根阳线的情况
07:19 - 07:22
EN: 5 or 10 consecutive bull bars without any bear bars.
ZH: 因为这是一个通道，所以不太可能出现连续10根阳线的情况
07:22 - 07:23
EN: You’re going to get pullbacks.
ZH: 一定会有回调
07:29 - 07:32
EN: And that means there’ll be many opportunities to buy below the high.
ZH: 也就是说有很多逢低买入的机会
07:32 - 07:38
EN: For example, buy below a bull bar, betting that it’s a terrible sell signal bar
ZH: 例如，在阳线下方挂单买入，因为它不是好的做空信号K线
07:38 - 07:40
EN: and that the market’s going higher.
ZH: 押注市场会继续上涨
07:44 - 07:49
EN: Again, as I said, you could buy lower, and in fact, you could scale in lower.
ZH: 这也包括在更低的价格加仓买入
07:49 - 07:53
EN: Wherever your first entry is, you could buy more 1 or 2 points down,
ZH: 无论初始入场点在哪里，你可以在下方1~2个点再次买入
07:53 - 07:57
EN: assuming you’re trading a small enough position size so that you can scale in.
ZH: 初始仓位足够小，就有可以加仓的空间
08:01 - 08:04
EN: Pullback testing support, the top of the Trading Range.
ZH: 回调测试支撑——震荡区间的上沿
08:04 - 08:07
EN: It’s also about a 50% pullback.
ZH: 同时也是50%回调
08:07 - 08:10
EN: You could buy with a limit order at that high or just above this high,
ZH: 你可以把限价买单挂在这个高点， 或者挂在它上方1个tick
08:10 - 08:15
EN: or a limit order at a 50% pullback, which is also around the same price.
ZH: 或者挂在50%回调——就在这个位置
08:15 - 08:18
EN: Here’s the start of the breakout, here’s the top of the breakout.
ZH: 从突破的起点，到突破的最高点
08:18 - 08:20
EN: This is around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这里是50%回调
08:24 - 08:26
EN: We have a bull bar after the bear bar,
ZH: 大阴线之后是一根阳线
08:26 - 08:31
EN: so that is a bad bear reversal attempt, and it’s also a bull flag.
ZH: 所以空头的反转没有得到跟随，更有可能是牛旗
08:31 - 08:38
EN: We pulled back for 3 bars and we have a bull bar,
ZH: 回调之后，有一根阳线，它是做多信号K， 回测支撑之后恢复上涨
08:34 - 08:38
EN: a buy signal bar, reversing up from a test of support.
ZH: 回调之后，有一根阳线，它是做多信号K， 回测支撑之后恢复上涨
08:38 - 08:40
EN: You can buy with a stop just above the high of this bull bar
ZH: 你可以在它的高点上方挂突破买单
08:40 - 08:42
EN: and you get filled right here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
08:47 - 08:51
EN: The market has been above the Moving Average all day to this point.
ZH: 今天到目前为止，价格始终都在均线的上方
08:51 - 08:54
EN: That is maybe 50 or 60 bars above the Moving Average.
ZH: 可能已经有50~60根K线了
08:54 - 08:57
EN: Traders have been willing to buy above the average price.
ZH: 交易者一直愿意以高于平均价的价格的买入
08:57 - 09:01
EN: So what’s going to happen when it finally gets down to the average price?
ZH: 那么当市场回到平均价格时，会发生什么？
09:01 - 09:08
EN: They’re going to buy, and therefore traders will place a limit order
ZH: 多头当然也愿意买入，所以他们会在均线或均线上方1个tick 挂限价买单
09:04 - 09:08
EN: to buy either at the Moving Average or 1 tick above the Moving Average,
ZH: 多头当然也愿意买入，所以他们会在均线或均线上方1个tick 挂限价买单
09:08 - 09:10
EN: and they can get filled right around here.
ZH: 他们的买单会在这里成交
09:18 - 09:23
EN: You can buy a breakout at the prior high – so for example,
ZH: 你可以在突破前期高点时买入——例如，
09:23 - 09:26
EN: you can place a stop order to buy at this high.
ZH: 你可以在这个高点上方挂突破买单
09:27 - 09:30
EN: You get filled just above that high.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
09:30 - 09:37
EN: However, bulls, when there are channels,
ZH: 然而在通道里，多头倾向于在创新高的时候止盈
09:33 - 09:37
EN: tend to take profits when the market gets to a prior high.
ZH: 然而在通道里，多头倾向于在创新高的时候止盈
09:37 - 09:40
EN: Therefore, the bulls who bought for any reason down here
ZH: 因此，之前在下方买入的多头，
09:41 - 09:43
EN: would take partial or full profits here.
ZH: 会在这里止盈部分或全部仓位
09:43 - 09:46
EN: Since this is Always In Long and early in a trend,
ZH: 由于现在处于单边上涨，而且还是趋势的早期
09:46 - 09:49
EN: I think bulls will take at most only partial profits.
ZH: 我认为更多人只是止盈一部分
09:49 - 09:54
EN: You can see the tail on the top of this bar and the bear bar that followed,
ZH: 可以看到这根K线的上影线，以及随后的阴线
09:54 - 09:56
EN: and that is a sign that bulls took profits.
ZH: 这说明多头在卖出止盈
09:57 - 10:00
EN: You also have limit order bears selling at this high,
ZH: 同时也有限价单空头在这个高点卖出
10:00 - 10:04
EN: hoping that this is going to become a Trading Range and not a bull trend.
ZH: 空头希望市场会进入震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
10:04 - 10:07
EN: However, when the market did not continue down,
ZH: 然而，市场没有进一步下跌，
10:07 - 10:09
EN: the bears had to buy back their shorts.
ZH: 空头不得不买入回补
10:09 - 10:11
EN: We have a bull ii.
ZH: 有一个多头ii的结构
10:11 - 10:14
EN: We have a bull inside bar, and this bar is an inside bar.
ZH: 最里面是一根多头孕线，这根阴线也是孕线
10:14 - 10:15
EN: So it’s an ii.
ZH: 所以是ii
10:15 - 10:16
EN: Second bar has a bull body.
ZH: 第2根孕线是阳线
10:16 - 10:18
EN: It’s a bull ii.
ZH: 所以称之为多头ii
10:18 - 10:22
EN: The bears who did sell at that high will buy back their shorts
ZH: 之前用限价卖单做空的空头，会在这个多头ii的上方买入回补
10:22 - 10:29
EN: above this bull ii, and the bulls who took partial profits,
ZH: 而之前止盈减仓的多头，会在这根K线上方再次买入
10:26 - 10:29
EN: a lot of them will buy more above this bar,
ZH: 而之前止盈减仓的多头，会在这根K线上方再次买入
10:29 - 10:31
EN: betting that we’re starting a second leg up.
ZH: 押注这是第2段上涨的开始
Slide 006
Time: 10:35
Bilingual Transcript
10:39 - 10:42
EN: It’s a channel getting reversal attempts repeatedly,
ZH: 这个通道里面有很多反转的尝试
10:42 - 10:46
EN: but it’s also a bull trend, and therefore you can buy at any time,
ZH: 但毕竟是上涨趋势，因此你可以随时买入
10:46 - 10:50
EN: including on a stop at a breakout above a prior high.
ZH: 包括前前期高点上方挂突破买单
10:50 - 10:54
EN: However, as I said, when the market is channeling,
ZH: 但是像刚才所说的那样，如果市场处于通道阶段
10:54 - 10:56
EN: it’s usually better to buy pullbacks.
ZH: 最好在回调时逢低买入
10:56 - 10:59
EN: And if you prefer stop entries, you could look for any kind of a pullback
ZH: 如果你更喜欢用突破单入场，那么你可以在回调之后，
10:59 - 11:03
EN: and place a stop to buy above the high of a bull bar and get filled here.
ZH: 在阳线的高点上方挂突破买单，然后在这里成交
11:03 - 11:11
EN: A pullback, even though it’s an ii and it did not go
ZH: 回调——它是ii，并没有跌破前一根K线的最低点， 所以你可以在这根多头孕线的上方挂突破买单
11:07 - 11:11
EN: below the low of the prior bar, you can buy on a stop
ZH: 回调——它是ii，并没有跌破前一根K线的最低点， 所以你可以在这根多头孕线的上方挂突破买单
11:09 - 11:11
EN: above the high of this bull inside bar.
ZH: 回调——它是ii，并没有跌破前一根K线的最低点， 所以你可以在这根多头孕线的上方挂突破买单
11:11 - 11:13
EN: Or here, or here.
ZH: 或者这里、这里
11:16 - 11:22
EN: You can also buy any strong bull close – here, here, here, here, here, here.
ZH: 你也可以在强势阳线的收盘买入—— 这里，这里，这里，这里，这里，这里
11:22 - 11:29
EN: However, buying bull closes at new highs,
ZH: 当市场已经上涨了超过20根K线以后， 再在创新高的时候去追涨
11:25 - 11:29
EN: especially after the market has rallied for 20 or more bars,
ZH: 当市场已经上涨了超过20根K线以后， 再在创新高的时候去追涨
11:29 - 11:35
EN: becomes risky because the chance of a deeper pullback becomes greater.
ZH: 风险就变大了，因为更有可能出现深度回调
11:36 - 11:43
EN: Later in a bull trend, it becomes even more important
ZH: 越是到了趋势的后期，越不能在强势突破时买入， 而是应该买回调
11:39 - 11:43
EN: to not buy the strong breakouts and instead buy pullbacks,
ZH: 越是到了趋势的后期，越不能在强势突破时买入， 而是应该买回调
11:43 - 11:47
EN: because every bull channel eventually evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为每个上涨通道最终都会演变成震荡区间
11:52 - 11:53
EN: Let’s say you bought this high.
ZH: 假设你正好买在这个高点
11:54 - 11:58
EN: The stop is always going to be below the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 止损总是应该放在最近一个重要低点的下方
11:58 - 12:01
EN: This is probably a minor Higher Low.
ZH: 它是一个比较次要的低点
12:01 - 12:03
EN: We went to a new high, but it was only a 1 bar breakout,
ZH: 尽管创了新高，但只有1根突破K线
12:03 - 12:05
EN: and the bar’s not all that big.
ZH: 且它的体积也不大
12:05 - 12:08
EN: I think this is a more major Higher Low.
ZH: 我认为这个低点更加重要
12:08 - 12:11
EN: So if you bought for any reason through here,
ZH: 如果你在这里的某个地方买入了
12:11 - 12:13
EN: by the time the market gets up here,
ZH: 等市场涨到这里的时候
12:13 - 12:16
EN: this is where the stop goes, below this low.
ZH: 止损可以移动上来，到这个低点的下方
12:20 - 12:24
EN: If you did buy this close, the high close of the entire bull trend,
ZH: 如果你正好在它的收盘买入—— 它是整个上涨趋势中最高的收盘价
12:24 - 12:35
EN: and you relied on your stop, and you saw the market sell off
ZH: 你依赖合理的止损，接下来的回调持续了10来根K线， 你可以在阳线上方加仓买入更多——比如这里
12:28 - 12:35
EN: for the next 10 bars or so, you can place an order to buy more
ZH: 你依赖合理的止损，接下来的回调持续了10来根K线， 你可以在阳线上方加仓买入更多——比如这里
12:32 - 12:35
EN: above a bull bar – like for example, here.
ZH: 你依赖合理的止损，接下来的回调持续了10来根K线， 你可以在阳线上方加仓买入更多——比如这里
12:35 - 12:40
EN: Can you buy above this bar? When I’m scaling in in a situation like this
ZH: 可以在这根K线上方买入吗？如果我遇到这种情况：
12:40 - 12:43
EN: where I bought the high close and I’m looking to buy more above a bull bar,
ZH: 一开始买在高位，然后想在阳线上方加仓的话
12:43 - 12:50
EN: I prefer the second order to be at least 2 or 3 points below the first
ZH: 我希望加仓的位置至少距离初始入场价格2~3个点
12:50 - 12:52
EN: - two to three times the size of a minimum scalp.
ZH: 也就是剥头皮最小目标的2~3倍
12:52 - 12:57
EN: In the Emini, a minimum scalp is 1 point, and therefore if I’m going to add on,
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
12:57 - 13:00
EN: I prefer to add on 2 or 3 points below.
ZH: 那么加仓就要隔开2~3个点的距离
13:00 - 13:03
EN: So I would not buy above this bull bar.
ZH: 因此我不会在这个阳线上方买入
13:03 - 13:07
EN: However, buying above this bull bar makes sense – again, relying on that stop.
ZH: 然而，在这个阳线上方买入是合理的——仍然依赖下方的止损
13:07 - 13:10
EN: And again, you only do it if you’re trading small enough
ZH: 反复强调，如果想要加仓，你的仓位就必须非常小
13:10 - 13:14
EN: so that your risk is no bigger than on any other trade.
ZH: 保证这笔交易冒的风险不会大于平时其他交易
13:18 - 13:20
EN: Let’s say you’re a bull who bought here.
ZH: 假设你在这里买入了
13:20 - 13:21
EN: Then you bought more here.
ZH: 然后你在这里加仓
13:21 - 13:25
EN: Are you happy with what you see here? Of course not.
ZH: 你对这段下跌满意吗？当然不满意
13:25 - 13:26
EN: You’re disappointed.
ZH: 你会感到失望
13:26 - 13:29
EN: We have over here, 6 or 7 bars without a bull bar,
ZH: 这里连续六七根K线里没有阳线
13:29 - 13:31
EN: and the bars are starting to get small.
ZH: 而且K线的体积开始变小
13:31 - 13:32
EN: We’re starting to go sideways.
ZH: 市场开始横盘了
13:32 - 13:37
EN: So you’re going to conclude that it’s no longer a strong bull trend.
ZH: 所以你会认为，市场不再处于强上涨趋势
13:37 - 13:39
EN: It might simply be a Trading Range.
ZH: 可能已经进入震荡区间
13:39 - 13:46
EN: You bought here on the assumption that it was going to be
ZH: 你在这里追涨，前提是上涨通道会继续延续， 但是它并没有
13:42 - 13:46
EN: a continuation of the bull channel, and it’s not.
ZH: 你在这里追涨，前提是上涨通道会继续延续， 但是它并没有
13:46 - 13:47
EN: We’re starting to go sideways.
ZH: 市场开始横盘
13:51 - 13:54
EN: And because it’s no longer a strong bull trend,
ZH: 因为它不再属于强上涨趋势
13:54 - 13:58
EN: you’ll probably want to get out around your original entry.
ZH: 所以多头打算在初始入场价格附近离场
13:58 - 14:02
EN: So a lot of the bulls will switch to Trading Range mode at this point.
ZH: 他们会切换到震荡区间的交易模式
14:02 - 14:05
EN: They’ll look to get out of their trade around here.
ZH: 他们想要在这里附近离场
14:05 - 14:10
EN: They get out breakeven on this buy, and then they have a profit here.
ZH: 初始仓位差不多打平，加仓的部分赚钱
14:10 - 14:14
EN: Remember, you’re buying here, hopefully about 2 points below there,
ZH: 你在这里加仓，距离初始仓位大约两个点
14:14 - 14:16
EN: so you get a 2-point profit here.
ZH: 所以这笔交易你赚了两个点
14:16 - 14:18
EN: And then you just wait to see what happens next.
ZH: 接下来你需要等待、观察
14:23 - 14:27
EN: The bears see this and they know the bulls are disappointed,
ZH: 空头看到这里，他们也知道多头对趋势感到失望
14:27 - 14:30
EN: and they know the market’s transitioning into a Trading Range,
ZH: 他们也知道市场正在过渡到震荡区间
14:30 - 14:33
EN: and they know the bulls will try to get out around the high close.
ZH: 且多头会尝试在前期最高的收盘价附近离场
14:34 - 14:41
EN: And because of that, bears will start selling for scalps right around
ZH: 因此，空头会在多头离场的地方卖出做空—— 就在那个最高收盘价附近——做一笔剥头皮交易
14:38 - 14:41
EN: where the bulls will give up, which is at that high close.
ZH: 因此，空头会在多头离场的地方卖出做空—— 就在那个最高收盘价附近——做一笔剥头皮交易
Slide 007
Time: 14:45
Bilingual Transcript
14:53 - 14:55
EN: In general, whenever the market is in a channel,
ZH: 通常来说，如果市场处于上涨通道
14:55 - 15:04
EN: especially when the channel is tight, any time the market pulls back a third
ZH: 尤其是窄通道，每当市场的回调幅度达到三分之一到一半， 多头就会开始买入
15:00 - 15:04
EN: to a half of the prior bull leg, the bulls will start to buy.
ZH: 尤其是窄通道，每当市场的回调幅度达到三分之一到一半， 多头就会开始买入
15:04 - 15:07
EN: We rallied, and this is pulling back about a third of this leg up.
ZH: 上涨，回调幅度大约是左边涨幅的三分之一
15:07 - 15:10
EN: We rallied, this is pulling back about half.
ZH: 上涨，然后回调了一半左右
15:11 - 15:14
EN: When the pullbacks are small, like they are here,
ZH: 如果回调幅度很小，比如这里，
15:14 - 15:16
EN: really difficult for the bears to make money.
ZH: 空头就很难赚到钱
15:16 - 15:22
EN: If they sell this high for a scalp, do they make money over here? Probably not.
ZH: 如果他们在这个高点挂单卖出做剥头皮， 能赚到钱吗？大概率赚不到什么钱
15:22 - 15:23
EN: The market’s resuming up.
ZH: 市场恢复上涨
15:24 - 15:31
EN: Whenever you look at a chart and you think about it from the perspective
ZH: 每当你从限价单空头的角度去观察市场—— 空头在前期高点挂单做空
15:27 - 15:31
EN: of limit order bears – bears selling with limit orders at the prior high
ZH: 每当你从限价单空头的角度去观察市场—— 空头在前期高点挂单做空
15:31 - 15:34
EN: - and you see that it’s very difficult for the bears to make money,
ZH: 你会发现，空头很难赚到钱
15:34 - 15:37
EN: that means the market is going to go higher.
ZH: 这就说明市场还会上涨
15:37 - 15:39
EN: Therefore, you should be looking to buy,
ZH: 因此，你应该寻找买入机会
15:39 - 15:43
EN: and you should especially be looking to buy every reversal down,
ZH: 尤其应该在每次反转下跌时买入
15:43 - 15:47
EN: believing that it’s likely the bears will get trapped,
ZH: 押注空头会被套牢
15:47 - 15:51
EN: the reversal down will be minor, which means it’ll become either a bull flag
ZH: 押注这只是小反转，会变成牛旗或震荡区间
15:51 - 15:55
EN: or a Trading Range, and the odds of it leading to a trend reversal are small.
ZH: 不太可能反转上涨趋势
15:56 - 16:00
EN: Even here, became a Trading Range and the bulls were able to avoid a loss.
ZH: 即使在这里变成了震荡区间，多头也能避免亏损
16:02 - 16:08
EN: The odds that the first reversal down is going to turn
ZH: 第1次下跌就反转进入下降趋势的概率非常小
16:06 - 16:08
EN: into a bear trend are small.
ZH: 第1次下跌就反转进入下降趋势的概率非常小
16:08 - 16:12
EN: Usually the market has to sell off for 10 or more bars
ZH: 通常市场需要下跌至少10根K线
16:12 - 16:15
EN: and then resume up and fail around the prior high.
ZH: 然后恢复上涨，在前期高点附近再次反转下跌
16:15 - 16:19
EN: At that point the bears have a chance of a reasonable selloff,
ZH: 到了那个时候，空头才有机会制造大反转
16:19 - 16:23
EN: but until you get the selloff and the test of the prior high,
ZH: 所以需要看到第1段强势的下跌，然后回测前期高点附近
16:23 - 16:26
EN: the odds of this are small.
ZH: 否则很难制造大反转
16:27 - 16:31
EN: And therefore, bulls can buy for any reason until after they see this.
ZH: 直到大反转的结构出现之前，多头可以用任何方法买入
16:34 - 16:36
EN: Again, here’s a leg up.
ZH: 再讲一遍，这是上涨波段
16:36 - 16:43
EN: Bulls will be looking to buy any reversal down that retraces
ZH: 多头会在回调了三分之一到一半的时候开始买入，
16:40 - 16:43
EN: about a third of the rally to about half of the rally.
ZH: 多头会在回调了三分之一到一半的时候开始买入，
16:43 - 16:44
EN: This is a third.
ZH: 这里是三分之一
16:44 - 16:48
EN: This is 33% pullback, and here’s a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这里是33%回调，这里是50%回调
16:48 - 16:52
EN: It did not quite get there, but that’s the buy zone, between a third and a half.
ZH: 没有完全达到那里——这是一个买入区域。 在33%到50%之间
16:52 - 16:55
EN: That’s where bulls start looking to buy again.
ZH: 那是多头开始再次买入的地方
17:00 - 17:06
EN: You could buy with a limit order at a 33% retracement or at a 50% retracement.
ZH: 你可以把限价买单挂在33%或50%回调的地方
17:06 - 17:08
EN: Here, it never hit the 50% retracement.
ZH: 这里回调幅度没有到50%
17:08 - 17:11
EN: So if you tried to buy with a limit order, you would not be filled.
ZH: 如果你把限价买单挂在那里，就没有能够成交
17:11 - 17:14
EN: Instead, you could buy a High 2 bull flag
ZH: 但是你可以在高2牛旗买入——
17:14 - 17:17
EN: - High 1 above this bar, and now we have a High 2
ZH: 这根K线上方是高1，现在这里是高2
17:17 - 17:20
EN: and we have a bull body, so that’s even higher probability.
ZH: 信号K是阳线，所以胜率更高
17:24 - 17:28
EN: You can buy with a stop on that reversal back up above that buy signal bar.
ZH: 你可以在那个做多信号K线的上方挂突破买单
Slide 008
Time: 17:35
Bilingual Transcript
17:38 - 17:44
EN: Whenever a channel is tight, usually the pullbacks only last 1, 2,
ZH: 如果通道很窄，那么回调往往只持续1~3根K线， 然后上涨趋势就恢复了
17:42 - 17:44
EN: or 3 bars before the bull trend resumes.
ZH: 如果通道很窄，那么回调往往只持续1~3根K线， 然后上涨趋势就恢复了
17:44 - 17:45
EN: We have a 1 bar pullback.
ZH: 1根K线的回调
17:45 - 17:50
EN: We have a 1 bar pullback that does not even go below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 这里也是1根K线，甚至没能跌破前一根K线的低点
17:50 - 17:53
EN: We have a 2 bar pullback here.
ZH: 这里回调了两根K线，并继续发展
17:52 - 17:53
EN: It extended.
ZH: 这里回调了两根K线，并继续发展
17:53 - 17:56
EN: We have a third bar, third lower bar.
ZH: 出现了第3根更低的K线
17:56 - 18:00
EN: This bar is below there, this bar is below here, this bar is below here.
ZH: 它低于它，它低于它，它低于它
18:00 - 18:02
EN: It’s actually probably a 6 or 7 bar pullback,
ZH: 所以整个回调持续了六七根K线
18:02 - 18:06
EN: but only 3 of the bars went below prior lows.
ZH: 但其中只有3根K线跌破了前一根K线的低点
18:06 - 18:10
EN: We have another pullback here for a few bars, and we have a 1 bar pullback here.
ZH: 这里又回调了几根K线，然后这里回调了一根K线
18:11 - 18:14
EN: That is a Small Pullback Bull Trend,
ZH: 这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
18:14 - 18:16
EN: and it usually means the market is going higher.
ZH: 通常意味着会继续上涨
18:16 - 18:19
EN: And that’s a sign of a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这些也是通道很窄的证据
18:19 - 18:23
EN: If all the pullbacks are very brief like that,
ZH: 如果回调都这么简短
18:23 - 18:26
EN: that means the market is probably going higher.
ZH: 说明市场大概率还会上涨
18:30 - 18:35
EN: Because the pullbacks are 1 bar, 1 bar, bulls will buy at the low
ZH: 因为回调只有1根K线，1根K线， 因此多头会在前一根K线的低点挂限价卖单
18:34 - 18:41
EN: of the prior bar, believing that the pullback will only last 1 or 2 bars,
ZH: 因为回调只有1根K线，1根K线， 因此多头会在前一根K线的低点挂限价卖单 押注回调不会超过3根K线，也不会有大的跌幅
18:38 - 18:41
EN: maybe 3 bars, and certainly not fall very far.
ZH: 押注回调不会超过3根K线，也不会有大的跌幅
18:41 - 18:44
EN: You can buy with a limit order below the low of the prior bar,
ZH: 你可以把限价买单挂在前一根K线的低点下方
18:44 - 18:49
EN: especially if the bar has a bull body, like this, like that, like that.
ZH: 尤其是挂在阳线的下方，比如它、它、它
18:49 - 18:52
EN: Those are low probability sells, and therefore you can buy
ZH: 在他们下方用突破卖单做空的胜率非常低，
18:52 - 18:55
EN: at the low of those reversal attempts.
ZH: 所以你反过来，在这些地方买入
18:58 - 19:06
EN: Another thing you can do is if the pullback is likely only going to be 1, 2,
ZH: 还有一种方法是：既然回调大概率只持续1~3根K线， 如果不把限价买单挂在前一根K线的低点下方，
19:03 - 19:06
EN: or 3 bars, instead of buying below the low of the first bar,
ZH: 还有一种方法是：既然回调大概率只持续1~3根K线， 如果不把限价买单挂在前一根K线的低点下方，
19:06 - 19:11
EN: you can wait for a 1 bar pullback and then buy at the low of that bar.
ZH: 可以等待回调K线的出现，然后在它的低点挂限价买单
19:15 - 19:19
EN: You could also buy at the low of the second pullback bar.
ZH: 也可以把限价买单挂在第2根回调K线的低点
19:19 - 19:22
EN: This bar went below the low of that bar.
ZH: 它跌破了前一根K线的低点
19:22 - 19:23
EN: That’s a 1 bar pullback.
ZH: 是第1根回调K线
19:23 - 19:27
EN: This bar went below the low of this bar, so it’s a 2 bar pullback.
ZH: 它又跌破了前一个低点，所以是第2根回调K线
19:27 - 19:30
EN: You could place a limit order to buy at the low of that bar,
ZH: 你可以在它的低点挂限价买单
19:30 - 19:38
EN: and you get filled over here, betting that the pullback
ZH: 订单会在这里（粉色框框）成交， 这样做是在押注回调不超过3根K线
19:34 - 19:38
EN: will not last more than 1, 2, or 3 bars.
ZH: 订单会在这里（粉色框框）成交， 这样做是在押注回调不超过3根K线
19:40 - 19:45
EN: Again, even if you are buying in what turns out to be the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 即使你买在下降趋势的开始
19:45 - 19:53
EN: the market will be forgiving because the first attempt to get a reversal,
ZH: 市场很多时候是宽容的，因为第1次反转尝试大概率不会成功
19:49 - 19:53
EN: the first significant attempt, is probably not going to succeed
ZH: 市场很多时候是宽容的，因为第1次反转尝试大概率不会成功
19:53 - 19:57
EN: without the market first testing back up at the prior high.
ZH: 通常都需要先回测前期高点
19:57 - 20:00
EN: Even if you buy here and the market keeps going down,
ZH: 即使你在这里买入，然后市场继续下跌
20:00 - 20:05
EN: the odds are high that you’ll be able to get out at least breakeven,
ZH: 你仍然有很大的概率至少可以打平离场
20:05 - 20:07
EN: that the market will come back to your entry price
ZH: 市场会涨回到你的入场价格
20:07 - 20:09
EN: and you’ll be able to avoid a loss.
ZH: 让你能够避免亏损
20:13 - 20:17
EN: When you have several reasons to buy, if you take one of these buys
ZH: 如果你看到了好几个合理的买点，选择其中一个买入，
20:17 - 20:25
EN: and then you see another buy signal, another one, another one, another one,
ZH: 接着你会看到很多做多信号，这里，这里，这里，这里， 通常你不需要买入那么多次
20:21 - 20:25
EN: another one, in general you will not take the additional buys.
ZH: 接着你会看到很多做多信号，这里，这里，这里，这里， 通常你不需要买入那么多次
20:25 - 20:26
EN: You’ll take one.
ZH: 选择一个就够了
20:26 - 20:32
EN: Maybe you’ll take a second or third if you can get it one
ZH: 你也可以在下方，距离至少两三个点的地方加仓
20:30 - 20:32
EN: or two times the size of a scalp lower.
ZH: 你也可以在下方，距离至少两三个点的地方加仓
20:32 - 20:36
EN: So the minimum scalp in the Emini is 1 point, and if you buy there,
ZH: ES中剥头皮的最小目标是1个点， 如果你在这里买入
20:36 - 20:39
EN: maybe you’ll buy more 1 point lower or 2 points lower.
ZH: 可以在下方一两个点的地方加仓
20:39 - 20:44
EN: But you’re not going to be taking these entries
ZH: 如果这些买点之间的间隔不到1个点， 那就没有加仓的意义了
20:42 - 20:44
EN: if they’re all within a point or so of one another.
ZH: 如果这些买点之间的间隔不到1个点， 那就没有加仓的意义了
20:44 - 20:50
EN: Also, you’re not going to be taking them if it trades risk
ZH: 另外，如果加仓会让风险超出你的承受能力， 那就不应该这样做（注：买一次就够了）
20:48 - 20:50
EN: that’s greater than your acceptable risk.
ZH: 另外，如果加仓会让风险超出你的承受能力， 那就不应该这样做（注：买一次就够了）
20:50 - 20:53
EN: If you’re taking any of these buys, your stop is down here,
ZH: 不管你选择在哪里入场，止损都在这里
20:53 - 21:02
EN: and you do not want your position size to be bigger than what it should be
ZH: 为了控制风险，你不应该让仓位变得很大
20:58 - 21:02
EN: in order to keep your risk within a reasonable level.
ZH: 为了控制风险，你不应该让仓位变得很大
Slide 009
Time: 21:05
Bilingual Transcript
21:06 - 21:11
EN: At this point we have an 8 bar pullback in a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这里，窄下降通道回调，持续了8根K线
21:11 - 21:15
EN: That’s a good sign that the momentum is waning
ZH: 这充分表明动能正在减弱
21:15 - 21:18
EN: and the market’s probably beginning to transition into a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场很可能正在演变成震荡区间
21:23 - 21:27
EN: Therefore, if you bought assuming that this channel was going to continue up,
ZH: 如果之前你买入的前提是：上涨通道会继续发展
21:27 - 21:29
EN: and now you think it’s not.
ZH: 但你现在认为不是这样了
21:29 - 21:37
EN: It’s going sideways, you’re disappointed and you’ll decide
ZH: 它在横盘，你感到失望，你认为不能再用趋势的方法去交易
21:33 - 21:37
EN: that this style of trading is no longer appropriate,
ZH: 它在横盘，你感到失望，你认为不能再用趋势的方法去交易
21:37 - 21:40
EN: and therefore you want to get out around breakeven.
ZH: 那么可以争取打平离场
21:40 - 21:44
EN: You’re buying in a way that’s appropriate for a bull channel,
ZH: 之前你按照上涨通道的模式去交易，
21:44 - 21:48
EN: but if it’s now a Trading Range, that’s not how you want to be trading it.
ZH: 但如果市场进入了震荡区间，你就不能再那样做了
21:48 - 21:51
EN: So you’ll get out of your trade around breakeven.
ZH: 你需要在回到入场价格附近的时候离场
Slide 010
Time: 21:55
Bilingual Transcript
21:56 - 22:01
EN: I’m going to talk a little bit now about stops and profit-taking.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲止损和止盈
Slide 011
Time: 22:02
Bilingual Transcript
22:10 - 22:13
EN: Let’s say you buy the close of the follow-through bar after this breakout.
ZH: 假设你在突破后的跟随K线的收盘买入
22:13 - 22:15
EN: You have a 2 bar breakout.
ZH: 两根突破的阳线
22:15 - 22:18
EN: An initial reasonable stop is below the bottom of the breakout
ZH: 一个合理的止损是在突破的起涨点下方
22:18 - 22:21
EN: - although you could also put it below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: ——尽管你也可以把止损放在最低点下方
22:22 - 22:26
EN: It doesn’t matter where you bought in here, anywhere in here;
ZH: 这里，不论你在哪里买入，
22:26 - 22:28
EN: this is where your stop goes.
ZH: 初始止损都应该放在这里
22:29 - 22:31
EN: And that’s true of any leg.
ZH: 任何一个波段都是这样
22:31 - 22:34
EN: It doesn’t matter where you buy in here.
ZH: 不管你在这里的哪个地方买入
22:34 - 22:39
EN: You’re using the same stop: here, below the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 止损的位置都是一样的：就在最近一个重要的低点下方
22:39 - 22:42
EN: Your entry price has nothing to do with the stop.
ZH: 止损和入场位置无关
22:43 - 22:49
EN: The location of the most recent major Higher Low is the only thing that matters.
ZH: 唯一的关键是：最近一个重要的低点在哪里
22:53 - 22:57
EN: Any time there’s a reasonably strong breakout, especially to a new high,
ZH: 每当有较为强势的突破，尤其是创新高的时候，
22:57 - 23:01
EN: you move your stop up to below the bottom of that breakout.
ZH: 你就可以把止损移动到突破的起涨点下方
23:01 - 23:03
EN: That’s trailing your stop up.
ZH: 这就是追踪止损
23:04 - 23:06
EN: Breakout, new high.
ZH: 突破，新高
23:06 - 23:08
EN: Reasonably strong breakout.
ZH: 相当强势的突破
23:08 - 23:11
EN: If you’re betting on a channel, it should not fall
ZH: 如果通道的前提成立，在创新高之后，
23:11 - 23:14
EN: below this low after breaking to a new high.
ZH: 这个低点就不应该被跌破
23:15 - 23:18
EN: Since you’re buying on the premise that it’s a channel,
ZH: 因为你入场的前提是：市场处于上涨通道
23:18 - 23:22
EN: if it goes below there then your premise is wrong, and you want to get out.
ZH: 如果真的跌破了，说明你的前提是错的，那么你应该离场
23:22 - 23:24
EN: So it’s appropriate to have your stop there.
ZH: 所以把止损放在这里是合理的
23:25 - 23:28
EN: Another breakout, not all that strong,
ZH: 新的突破，并不是特别强势
23:28 - 23:29
EN: but we have a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 但有一根阳线收在最高
23:29 - 23:31
EN: We have 3 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 有连续3根阳线
23:31 - 23:34
EN: Reasonable to put your stop below the bottom of that channel,
ZH: 把止损放在这个起涨点的下方是合理的
23:34 - 23:37
EN: below that bull bar, maybe below that bear bar.
ZH: 或者放在前一根阴线下方也可以
23:38 - 23:41
EN: Another breakout to a new high, decent bull bar.
ZH: 再次突破创新高，漂亮的阳线
23:41 - 23:46
EN: Reasonable to put your stop below the bottom of the leg up or below this low.
ZH: 把止损放在这个起涨点下方，或者这个低点下方，都是合理的
23:49 - 23:50
EN: Another breakout.
ZH: 再次突破
23:50 - 23:54
EN: Even though it’s only a 1 bar breakout, it’s a breakout to a new high.
ZH: 尽管只有一根突破K线，但突破了前期高点
23:54 - 23:58
EN: It’s also getting late in the trend, and you have to be thinking
ZH: 但趋势已经持续了很久，你必须要考虑到，
23:58 - 24:01
EN: that the market is not going to go up forever.
ZH: 市场不可能永远上涨
24:01 - 24:06
EN: We have consecutive breakouts – here, here, here, here, here, here.
ZH: 有连续的抢购高潮——这里，这里，这里，这里，这里，这里
24:06 - 24:09
EN: Usually that transitions into a Trading Range.
ZH: 通常会很快进入震荡区间
24:09 - 24:13
EN: And because of that, I think you have to be thinking
ZH: 正因如此，你需要尽早离场 （注：以免遇到深度回调，甚至大反转）
24:12 - 24:19
EN: that you want to get out quicker, and therefore it’s reasonable
ZH: 正因如此，你需要尽早离场 （注：以免遇到深度回调，甚至大反转） 所以在1根突破K线之后，把止损放在这里是可以的
24:16 - 24:19
EN: to put your stop here after simply a 1 bar breakout.
ZH: 所以在1根突破K线之后，把止损放在这里是可以的
24:19 - 24:23
EN: Also, this is the biggest bull bar in maybe 20 bars.
ZH: 还有，它可能是过去20根K线中体积最大的阳线
24:23 - 24:26
EN: Whenever you see the biggest bull bar after a trend
ZH: 如果趋势已经持续了超过20根K线，
24:26 - 24:31
EN: that’s gone on 20 or more bars, it’s more likely an exhaustive end
ZH: 此时你再看到最大的大阳线， 那么它更有可能让趋势衰竭
24:30 - 24:33
EN: of the trend than it is the start of a new leg up,
ZH: 此时你再看到最大的大阳线， 那么它更有可能让趋势衰竭 而不是让趋势变得更强劲
24:33 - 24:35
EN: and that’s another reason to put your stop here.
ZH: 这是把止损放在这里的另一个理由
24:35 - 24:38
EN: If it gets down here, you don’t want to be long
ZH: 如果跌到这里，你就不应该再持有了
24:38 - 24:42
EN: because your premise of a bull channel is no longer valid.
ZH: 因为上涨通道的前提已经不再成立
24:42 - 24:44
EN: It’s probably now in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场更有可能已经处于震荡区间
24:50 - 24:52
EN: Let’s say you’re buying for a scalp here
ZH: 假设你在这里买入做剥头皮
24:52 - 24:55
EN: or buying for a scalp here or here, for any reason.
ZH: 或在这里、这里买入做剥头皮， 不管出于什么原因
24:55 - 24:58
EN: You’re still going to be using the swing stop.
ZH: 你仍然需要使用波段交易的止损
24:58 - 24:59
EN: It’s usually the best choice.
ZH: 这通常是最好的选择
24:59 - 25:01
EN: It gives you higher probability,
ZH: 因为这能给你带来更高的胜率
25:01 - 25:04
EN: and it’s especially good if you’re able to scale in.
ZH: 尤其是你能够加仓的话
25:05 - 25:08
EN: So if a bull scalper bought let’s say here,
ZH: 如果一个剥头皮交易者在这里买入做多，
25:08 - 25:11
EN: it’s better to use this stop and not put a stop here.
ZH: 把止损发放在这里会更好，而不是放在这里
25:11 - 25:13
EN: So they buy above this bar and get filled here.
ZH: 他在这根K线上方挂突破买单，在这里成交
25:13 - 25:17
EN: Better to put a stop down here so they can buy more if it gets lower,
ZH: 最好把止损放在这个低点下方，这样就可以在下跌的时候加仓
25:17 - 25:22
EN: because you don’t want to be stopped out
ZH: 否则你的止损刚刚被打掉， 然后市场就立刻从高2牛旗开始恢复上涨
25:19 - 25:22
EN: and then have it reverse up again on a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 否则你的止损刚刚被打掉， 然后市场就立刻从高2牛旗开始恢复上涨
25:22 - 25:24
EN: High 1, High 2.
ZH: 高1，高2
25:24 - 25:26
EN: Or let’s say you buy above this bar.
ZH: 或者假设在这根K线上方买入
25:26 - 25:30
EN: I would put the stop down here because we might get one more little push down
ZH: 我会把止损放在这里，因为完全可能还有一段小的下跌
25:30 - 25:33
EN: below that low, and again, you don’t want to get stopped out
ZH: 刚好跌破这个低点； 你不想被轻易地止损离场
25:33 - 25:36
EN: at that point with a High 3, a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 然后立刻看到市场从楔形牛旗（高3牛旗）恢复上涨
Slide 012
Time: 25:40
Bilingual Transcript
25:43 - 25:47
EN: Pretty late in the bull trend to be buying highs, but we have a Trading Range
ZH: 这里属于是在上涨趋势的后期追涨， 但左边是一个震荡区间
25:47 - 25:49
EN: and now we’re breaking out and we have follow-through.
ZH: 现在突破了区间，而且还有好的跟随
25:49 - 25:53
EN: It’s okay to buy that close if you use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 所以可以在它的收盘买入，前提是设置好合理的止损
25:54 - 25:58
EN: Can you put the stop below the low of this one breakout bar?
ZH: 可以把止损放在这根突破K线的低点下方吗？
25:58 - 26:03
EN: You probably can because if your premise is right that this is the start
ZH: 也许可以，因为如果你的前提正确—— 如果这确实是新一段上涨的开始
26:03 - 26:06
EN: of a new leg up, it should not drop below the low of this bar.
ZH: 那么市场就不应该跌破这根K线的低点
26:06 - 26:09
EN: Also, we’re getting pretty late in the trend,
ZH: 此外，在趋势的后期
26:09 - 26:11
EN: and whenever you see a big bull bar late in a trend,
ZH: 每当你看到一根大阳线
26:11 - 26:14
EN: especially if it’s bigger than the prior 20 bars,
ZH: 尤其如果它比过去20根K线都要大的话
26:14 - 26:17
EN: there’s an increased risk that the trend will end soon.
ZH: 趋势即将衰竭的风险就变高了
26:17 - 26:21
EN: This is a strong enough breakout so that we’ll probably get a second leg up.
ZH: 这个突破足够强势，所以大概率会有第2段上涨
26:21 - 26:24
EN: This is a strong enough breakout for maybe more up.
ZH: 前面这个突破足够强势，大概率会有第2段上涨
26:24 - 26:29
EN: But you were expecting a second leg, and this is the second leg.
ZH: 你预期它会有第2段上涨，而这可能就是它的第2段
26:36 - 26:37
EN: You can buy this close.
ZH: 在它的收盘买入，不是不行
26:38 - 26:39
EN: I personally would not buy that close.
ZH: 但我个人不会那样做
26:39 - 26:42
EN: I would wait to see what we get.
ZH: 我会继续等待、观察
26:42 - 26:45
EN: In any case, let’s say you buy this close.
ZH: 总之，如果你在它的收盘买入了
26:45 - 26:47
EN: Either stop is reasonable.
ZH: 这两个止损都是合理的
26:47 - 26:50
EN: A tighter stop, you’ll get stopped out more often,
ZH: 如果选择较窄的那个，被打掉的频率会更高
26:50 - 26:53
EN: but you’ll lose less when you do get stopped out.
ZH: 但每次的亏损会更小
26:53 - 26:58
EN: A wider stop, when you do lose, you’ll lose more than with this stop,
ZH: 如果选择较宽的那个，每次的亏损会更大
26:58 - 27:00
EN: but you’ll get stopped out less often.
ZH: 但被打掉的次数更少
27:00 - 27:05
EN: A wider stop has higher probability of making money, but the risk is greater.
ZH: 更宽的止损有更高的胜率，但风险更大
27:05 - 27:09
EN: Both stops are reasonable, and therefore you can use either one.
ZH: 两个止损都是合理的，因此你可以任选其一
27:09 - 27:13
EN: And if you take this trade 100 times using this stop
ZH: 如果你用窄止损做100笔交易，
27:13 - 27:18
EN: and 100 times again using this stop, your profit will be about the same.
ZH: 再用宽止损做100笔交易，最终的利润是差不多的
Slide 013
Time: 27:20
Bilingual Transcript
27:25 - 27:29
EN: Because it’s a bull trend – at least you believe it’s going to be a bull trend
ZH: 因为这是上涨趋势——至少你认为它是上涨趋势
27:29 - 27:32
EN: - it’s always reasonable to swing at least part of your trade.
ZH: 至少保留一部分仓位做波段交易，总是一个好的选择
27:32 - 27:34
EN: Most traders should be swinging all.
ZH: 大部分交易者应该只做波段交易
27:34 - 27:37
EN: So if they buy this close for example,
ZH: 例如，假设多头在它的收盘买入
27:37 - 27:40
EN: it’s better to be swinging most or all of your trade.
ZH: 用大部分、甚至全部头寸都用来做波段交易比较好 （注：不是让你满仓，头寸是指你已经持有的仓位）
27:46 - 27:56
EN: Again, because it’s an early trend, the probability of making a reward
ZH: 由于现在是趋势的初期，如果设置合理的止损， 有60%的概率能赚到至少等同于实际风险的利润
27:50 - 27:56
EN: at least equal to your Actual Risk is at least 60%
ZH: 由于现在是趋势的初期，如果设置合理的止损， 有60%的概率能赚到至少等同于实际风险的利润
27:54 - 27:56
EN: when you use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 由于现在是趋势的初期，如果设置合理的止损， 有60%的概率能赚到至少等同于实际风险的利润
28:01 - 28:06
EN: If you buy this close, your Initial Risk is 1 tick below the low of this bar.
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘买入， 初始风险是在这根K线的低点下方1个tick
28:11 - 28:13
EN: And once the market resumes up to this point,
ZH: 当市场恢复上涨，涨到这里的时候
28:13 - 28:19
EN: you now know that your Actual Risk was to 1 tick below the low of this bar.
ZH: 你现在已经知道你的实际风险了， 就在这根K线的低点下方1个tick
28:19 - 28:21
EN: You buy here, your Actual Risk was here.
ZH: 你在这里买入，你的实际风险是这么多
28:26 - 28:32
EN: 60% chance you’re going to have at least a profit of one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 60%的概率至少能赚到一倍实际风险
28:32 - 28:35
EN: That is an acceptable Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 数学期望是可以接受
28:35 - 28:37
EN: When you have a reasonably strong breakout,
ZH: 如果遇到相当强势的突破
28:37 - 28:41
EN: 60% chance the market’s going to go up for some kind of a Measured Move,
ZH: 有60%的概率会涨到某个MM目标位
28:41 - 28:50
EN: and therefore the minimum you need for a positive Trader’s Equation
ZH: 你只需要让利润等于风险， 就能获得正的数学期望
28:46 - 28:50
EN: is a profit that is only one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 你只需要让利润等于风险， 就能获得正的数学期望
28:52 - 28:56
EN: This is one times Actual Risk, and you can see what happened
ZH: 这里是一倍实际风险，可以看到， 当市场涨到那里时发生了什么
28:54 - 28:56
EN: when the market got there.
ZH: 这里是一倍实际风险，可以看到， 当市场涨到那里时发生了什么
28:56 - 28:58
EN: Some traders took profits.
ZH: 一些多头止盈了
28:58 - 28:59
EN: That’s what caused that.
ZH: 所以造成回调
28:59 - 29:02
EN: It’s a reasonable swing trade,
ZH: 这是一个合理的波段机会
29:02 - 29:06
EN: and it’s therefore reasonable to swing all of your position.
ZH: 所以保留全部头寸做波段交易是合理的
29:06 - 29:09
EN: You should certainly be swinging at least part of your position.
ZH: 至少应该保留一部分头寸在波段里面
29:11 - 29:14
EN: And look what happened when the market went to one times Initial Risk.
ZH: 看看市场在1倍初始风险的时候发生了什么
29:14 - 29:16
EN: You buy here.
ZH: 你在这里买入
29:16 - 29:18
EN: Initially your stop is below the low of this bar,
ZH: 初始止损在这根K线的低点下方
29:18 - 29:20
EN: and this is one times Initial Risk.
ZH: 这里就是1倍初始止损
29:20 - 29:22
EN: And you can see what happened.
ZH: 可以看到发生了什么
29:22 - 29:23
EN: More profit-taking.
ZH: 有更多人止盈
29:24 - 29:28
EN: So some computers are taking partial profits at one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 一些计算机会在1倍实际风险的地方止盈一部分
29:28 - 29:33
EN: If the Actual Risk is fairly small, instead they’ll use one times Initial Risk.
ZH: 如果实际风险太小，它们就会用1倍初始风险
29:33 - 29:36
EN: So other computers took profits up there.
ZH: 有很多电脑程序都在这里止盈
Slide 014
Time: 29:40
Bilingual Transcript
29:44 - 29:52
EN: The probability is high, and therefore taking profits
ZH: 因为胜率很高，所以在1倍实际风险， 或1倍初始风险的地方止盈一部分是合理的
29:47 - 29:52
EN: at one times Actual Risk or Initial Risk is reasonable.
ZH: 因为胜率很高，所以在1倍实际风险， 或1倍初始风险的地方止盈一部分是合理的
29:52 - 29:57
EN: Certainly taking profits at two times Actual or Initial Risk is reasonable.
ZH: 当然，在两倍实际风险或初始风险处止盈一部分也是合理的
29:57 - 30:00
EN: And swing trading the rest of your position makes sense.
ZH: 然后坚定持有剩下的头寸做波段交易
30:10 - 30:14
EN: Most traders should be swing trading at least half of their position.
ZH: 对大部分交易者而言，至少应该持有一半的头寸做波段
30:14 - 30:19
EN: When do you exit? Well, you exit when there are a couple decent reasons
ZH: 最终什么时候离场？如果有一些可靠的信号，
30:19 - 30:25
EN: for traders to assume the trend is ending
ZH: 让你认为趋势即将结束、即将过渡到震荡区间，
30:22 - 30:25
EN: and it might be transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 让你认为趋势即将结束、即将过渡到震荡区间，
30:26 - 30:30
EN: And then you can exit your position on a stop order on a reversal down
ZH: 当市场从阻力位反转下跌时，你可以用突破卖单离场
30:30 - 30:34
EN: from the resistance, or with a limit order right around the resistance.
ZH: 或者把限价卖单挂在阻力位附近
30:37 - 30:40
EN: Resistance – one times Actual Risk is always resistance.
ZH: 阻力——1倍实际风险往往是阻力
30:40 - 30:42
EN: Reasonable to take partial profits there.
ZH: 所以止盈一部分是合理的
30:42 - 30:45
EN: One times Initial Risk is also resistance.
ZH: 1倍初始风险也是阻力
30:45 - 30:52
EN: It’s resistance because some computers will be taking profits there,
ZH: 因为一些电脑程序会在那里止盈， 导致上涨趋势停滞，所以它们是阻力
30:49 - 30:52
EN: which means the market will probably stall there.
ZH: 因为一些电脑程序会在那里止盈， 导致上涨趋势停滞，所以它们是阻力
30:52 - 30:54
EN: Reasonable to take partial profits there.
ZH: 所以止盈一部分是合理的
30:59 - 31:02
EN: Every channel eventually ends.
ZH: 所有通道最终都会结束
Slide 015
Time: 31:00
Bilingual Transcript
31:02 - 31:08
EN: 25% of channels break out and become an even stronger trend,
ZH: 25%甚至更少的通道能加速突破，进入更强的趋势
31:07 - 31:08
EN: maybe less than that.
ZH: 25%甚至更少的通道能加速突破，进入更强的趋势
31:09 - 31:14
EN: 75% break to the down side and the bull channel becomes a Trading Range.
ZH: 75%的上涨通道会向下跌破，变成震荡区间
Slide 016
Time: 31:16
Bilingual Transcript
31:22 - 31:25
EN: Traders can trade it like a channel until it’s no longer a channel.
ZH: 在变成震荡区间之前，都可以按照通道的方法去交易
31:28 - 31:36
EN: Whenever a trend goes on 20 or more bars, traders should begin
ZH: 每当一个趋势持续超过20根K线的时候， 交易者就应该开始寻找通道变成震荡区间的信号了
31:32 - 31:36
EN: to look for signs that the channel might be evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 每当一个趋势持续超过20根K线的时候， 交易者就应该开始寻找通道变成震荡区间的信号了
31:36 - 31:39
EN: You can see there was an attempt to do that here.
ZH: 可以看到，这里有一个尝试
31:39 - 31:41
EN: We have a Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 楔形顶——1，2，3
31:41 - 31:44
EN: Then we have a couple legs sideways – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 然后有两段横盘——1，反弹，2
31:44 - 31:46
EN: This subdivided into one, pullback, two.
ZH: 这一段又可以细分成1，反弹，2
31:47 - 31:49
EN: However, the bull trend resumed.
ZH: 然而上涨趋势恢复了
31:53 - 31:58
EN: We have a rally here, and then an attempt to reverse.
ZH: 上涨波段，然后下跌回调
31:58 - 32:01
EN: But whenever you have a Tight Bull Channel like this,
ZH: 如果通道这么窄的话，
32:01 - 32:06
EN: the first reversal attempt probably is going to result
ZH: 第1次反转的尝试往往会变成震荡区间或牛旗
32:04 - 32:06
EN: in a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 第1次反转的尝试往往会变成震荡区间或牛旗
32:06 - 32:09
EN: However, you’ve got to be thinking about Measured Moves.
ZH: 你必须要考虑到MM目标位
32:09 - 32:11
EN: If this is the first leg up and we have a pullback,
ZH: 大的第1段上涨，回调
32:11 - 32:18
EN: and now the bull trend is resuming, there will always be some profit-taking
ZH: 现在上涨趋势恢复了，在第1段=第2段的MM目标位， 往往会有人卖出止盈
32:15 - 32:18
EN: at around a Leg 1, Leg 2 Measured Move up.
ZH: 现在上涨趋势恢复了，在第1段=第2段的MM目标位， 往往会有人卖出止盈
32:18 - 32:24
EN: First leg, and then the second leg started here, and that is a Measured Move up.
ZH: 第1段，然后第2段从这里开始，MM目标位在这里
32:29 - 32:31
EN: We have consecutive tops.
ZH: 有连续的顶部结构
32:31 - 32:33
EN: We have a Wedge Top here.
ZH: 这里是一个楔形顶
32:33 - 32:36
EN: Not likely to fall very far because the channel is tight.
ZH: 不会下跌太多，因为通道很窄
32:36 - 32:40
EN: The bull trend resumed, but now we have a second Wedge Top.
ZH: 上涨趋势恢复，现在出现了第2个楔形顶
32:40 - 32:44
EN: Whenever there are consecutive tops, there’s a higher chance that the trend
ZH: 如果有连续的筑顶尝试，趋势就更有可能结束，
32:44 - 32:49
EN: will end and either become a Trading Range or reverse into an opposite trend.
ZH: 变成震荡区间，甚至反转成下降趋势
32:52 - 32:56
EN: Whenever you have a High 2 buy setup – here’s a High 1, High 2,
ZH: 每当你看到一个高2入场点——这里是高1、高2
32:56 - 33:01
EN: and then here’s a bigger High 2; this is a High 1, High 2,
ZH: 第1段里有一个更小的高2结构——高1，高2
33:01 - 33:03
EN: but it’s also a bigger High 1.
ZH: 也可以把它看作是大的高1
33:03 - 33:05
EN: So this is a High 1 and this is a High 2.
ZH: 所以这是高1，这是高2
33:05 - 33:10
EN: Whenever you have a High 2 that occurs 20 or more bars into a bull trend,
ZH: 如果上涨趋势已经持续了至少20根K线， 再看到高2牛旗的话
33:10 - 33:14
EN: there’s at least a 50% chance it’ll be the final bull flag,
ZH: 它有50%的概率就是末端牛旗
33:14 - 33:22
EN: and that means that you’ll get a leg up and then a pullback
ZH: 这意味着再次上涨之后，会回调进入震荡区间， 或者深度回调，变成大的震荡区间（即下跌波段）
33:18 - 33:22
EN: into a Trading Range or a deep pullback into a very big Trading Range.
ZH: 这意味着再次上涨之后，会回调进入震荡区间， 或者深度回调，变成大的震荡区间（即下跌波段）
Slide 017
Time: 33:25
Bilingual Transcript
33:32 - 33:33
EN: I mentioned this earlier.
ZH: 还有刚才提到的
33:33 - 33:38
EN: Whenever you have a relatively big bar – big compared to the past 20 bars
ZH: 如果有一根大阳线，大于过去20根K线
33:38 - 33:41
EN: - occurring 20 or more bars into a bull trend,
ZH: 而它出现在上涨趋势的后期
33:41 - 33:47
EN: it’s more likely to be an exhaustion move than a breakout
ZH: 那么它更有可能导致趋势衰竭， 而不是成为新的更强的趋势
33:45 - 33:47
EN: into an even stronger bull trend.
ZH: 那么它更有可能导致趋势衰竭， 而不是成为新的更强的趋势
33:47 - 33:51
EN: At the close of this bar, there’s a gap between its close
ZH: 在这根K线收盘后，它的收盘价和前一根K线的高点之间有一个缺口
33:50 - 33:51
EN: and the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 在这根K线收盘后，它的收盘价和前一根K线的高点之间有一个缺口
33:52 - 33:54
EN: Chances are that gap is going to close,
ZH: 很大的概率这个缺口会被补掉
33:54 - 33:58
EN: so that means chances are you’ll get a pullback
ZH: 也就是说，很大的概率回调会跌到这根K线的高点之下
33:56 - 33:58
EN: that falls below the high of this bar.
ZH: 也就是说，很大的概率回调会跌到这根K线的高点之下
33:58 - 34:05
EN: It’s especially likely if the bar following the breakout
ZH: 如果突破后的跟随K线很糟糕，有深度回调的概率就更高了
34:02 - 34:05
EN: is a bad follow-through bar for the bulls,
ZH: 如果突破后的跟随K线很糟糕，有深度回调的概率就更高了
34:05 - 34:07
EN: and here we have a reversal bar with a bear body.
ZH: 这里，跟随K线是一根反转的阴线
34:11 - 34:12
EN: We have a breakout.
ZH: 突破
34:13 - 34:16
EN: Probably going to get a second leg up, and we have a second leg up.
ZH: 大概率会有第2段上涨，也就是它
34:16 - 34:19
EN: We’re not necessarily going to get a third or fourth leg up,
ZH: 不一定会有第3段或第4段上涨
34:20 - 34:24
EN: and therefore the minimum goal after this breakout has been achieved.
ZH: 因此，突破后的最小目标已经达到了
34:24 - 34:26
EN: Another reason for traders to take profits.
ZH: 这是交易者止盈的另一个理由
34:31 - 34:35
EN: We have a breakout bar and bad follow-through.
ZH: 突破之后的跟随很糟糕
34:35 - 34:37
EN: Buy The Close bulls are disappointed.
ZH: 在收盘买入的多头对此感到失望
34:37 - 34:39
EN: We started to get a series of dojis.
ZH: 开始出现一系列的十字星
34:39 - 34:42
EN: That usually leads to some kind of a Trading Range.
ZH: 那通常会导致进入震荡区间
Slide 018
Time: 34:45
Bilingual Transcript
34:50 - 34:54
EN: I think it’s reasonable to take final profits below this bear bar
ZH: 我认为在这个阴线下方全部止盈离场是合理的
34:54 - 34:56
EN: because of all that I said – Leg 1, Leg 2,
ZH: 因为刚才所说的所有东西——第1段=第2段（的MM目标达到了）
34:56 - 35:00
EN: consecutive tops, Wedge, Wedge, possible Final Flag.
ZH: 连续的顶部——楔形顶、楔形顶； 潜在的末端牛旗
35:00 - 35:03
EN: Expect a second leg up after this – first leg, second leg,
ZH: 这个突破预期会有第2段上涨——第1段，第2段
35:03 - 35:06
EN: and the biggest bull bar late in a bull trend.
ZH: 以及它是上涨趋势后期最大的阳线
35:06 - 35:08
EN: Probably an exhaustion bar.
ZH: 大概率是衰竭K线
35:08 - 35:10
EN: Reasonable to take profits there.
ZH: 所以止盈是合理的
35:15 - 35:17
EN: We have a series of Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 有一系列的抢购高潮
35:17 - 35:21
EN: Every trend bar, every series of trend bars, is a climax.
ZH: 每根趋势K线，每一系列趋势K线，都是一次高潮
35:21 - 35:25
EN: This, this, this, a little bit here, here, here, here.
ZH: 这里，这里，这里，这里，这里，这里
35:25 - 35:28
EN: Usually evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 往往会演变为震荡区间
35:29 - 35:32
EN: Usually you’ll get 10 bars, two legs sideways to down.
ZH: 通常会横盘或下跌两段、10根K线
35:32 - 35:35
EN: Maybe Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 可能是第1段，反弹，第2段
35:35 - 35:38
EN: Tight Channel, so maybe Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 也可能是更大的第1段，反弹，第2段
Slide 019
Time: 35:40
Bilingual Transcript
35:48 - 35:49
EN: Big bear bar.
ZH: 大阴线
35:49 - 35:50
EN: Increasing bear bars.
ZH: 阴线体积越来越大
35:50 - 35:52
EN: We have a doji and now we have a bear body,
ZH: 一开始是十字星，然后是小阴线，
35:52 - 35:55
EN: a bigger bear body and a bigger bear body.
ZH: 然后阴线的体积一个比一个大
35:55 - 35:58
EN: This is a sign that the remaining bulls are giving up.
ZH: 这说明剩下的多头最终放弃了
35:58 - 36:02
EN: Some bulls, after this breakout, put their stop below here,
ZH: 在突破之后，一些多头把止损放在它的下方
36:02 - 36:04
EN: arguing it’s another major Higher Low.
ZH: 认为这是一个重要的低点
36:05 - 36:08
EN: However, I would not do that because at this point it’s a Trading Range,
ZH: 然而我不会这样做，因为此时市场处于震荡区间
36:08 - 36:13
EN: and I’m going to be selling out of longs on a reversal down after any rally.
ZH: 所以在上涨之后，如果开始反转下跌，我就会全部提前离场
36:13 - 36:15
EN: I’m not going to rely on a stop.
ZH: 而不是继续依赖保护性质询
36:15 - 36:21
EN: This is a trend stop, and at this point the market’s probably
ZH: 这是趋势中的止损方法， 但此时市场很可能已经进入震荡区间，不再是趋势了
36:19 - 36:21
EN: in a Trading Range and no longer in a trend.
ZH: 这是趋势中的止损方法， 但此时市场很可能已经进入震荡区间，不再是趋势了
36:22 - 36:25
EN: And you can see a lot of traders gave up,
ZH: 可以看到，很多多头放弃了
36:25 - 36:29
EN: and a lot of traders did in fact sell below this low.
ZH: 很多人确实把止损放在这个低点下方
36:29 - 36:31
EN: For me, I would sell below this bear bar.
ZH: 我个人会在这根阴线下方提前离场
36:36 - 36:39
EN: This is caused by the remaining bulls taking profits
ZH: 剩余的多头卖出离场，因此形成了这根大阴线
36:39 - 36:43
EN: and the bears seeing the market turning down,
ZH: 同时空头看到市场转向下跌
36:43 - 36:47
EN: and they know the bulls will give up, so the bears are selling as well.
ZH: 他们知道多头会放弃，所以空头也在大量卖出
36:52 - 36:54
EN: Big bear bar, a surprise bar.
ZH: 大阴线，空头的惊喜K线
36:54 - 36:57
EN: Surprisingly big bar, the biggest bear bar of the entire day.
ZH: 巨大无比，是当天最大的K线
36:57 - 36:59
EN: We know the bulls are giving up.
ZH: 显然多头正在放弃
37:00 - 37:02
EN: Probably we’ll get at least a second leg down,
ZH: 大概率至少会有第2段下跌
37:02 - 37:05
EN: and therefore it’s reasonable to sell that close,
ZH: 因此在它的收盘卖出是合理的
37:05 - 37:08
EN: expecting that any reversal up will form a Lower High
ZH: 预期任何形式的反弹，都不会超过前期高点
37:08 - 37:10
EN: and we’ll get a second leg down.
ZH: 然后会有第2段下跌
37:10 - 37:13
EN: We have 3 consecutive bear bars, each one getting stronger,
ZH: 连续3根阴线，越来越强壮
37:13 - 37:16
EN: all three closing at or near their lows.
ZH: 且都收盘在最低点附近
37:16 - 37:18
EN: Strong bear reversal.
ZH: 强势的空头反转
37:22 - 37:27
EN: The bulls are hoping this is a big High 2 buy – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 多头希望这是一个大的高2买入点——第1段，回调，第2段
37:27 - 37:30
EN: They have a bull body here, but this is so strong,
ZH: 这里有一根阳线（做多信号） 但空头太强势了，
37:30 - 37:34
EN: the odds are the reversal up will fail and we’ll get a second leg down,
ZH: 大概率反弹会失败，会有第2段下跌
37:34 - 37:38
EN: and therefore bears will sell at the high of the prior bar
ZH: 因此空头会在前一根K线的高点挂限价卖单
37:38 - 37:41
EN: - above this bar – especially since it has a bear body.
ZH: ——在这根K线上方——尤其因为它是阴线
37:41 - 37:46
EN: Stop up here, the top of the most recent major Lower High and a new bear trend.
ZH: 止损放在这里，最近一个重要的高点，也是下降趋势的起跌点
37:50 - 37:51
EN: We have three legs up.
ZH: 有3段反弹
37:51 - 37:55
EN: We have a bull bar here and then a bear bar, 2 bull bars and then a bear bar
ZH: 阳线，然后阴线；2根阳线，然后阴线
37:55 - 37:57
EN: and then a bull bar, so it’s three pushes up.
ZH: 然后这根阳线是第3推
37:57 - 37:58
EN: It’s a Wedge rally.
ZH: 3推楔形熊旗
37:58 - 38:02
EN: It’s a Double Top with the top of this Sell Climax high.
ZH: 和这根大阴线的起跌点形成了双顶
38:02 - 38:04
EN: It’s a test of the breakout point.
ZH: 也是对突破点的回测
38:04 - 38:06
EN: It’s around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 大约是50%反弹
38:06 - 38:09
EN: Even though it has a bull body, I think the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 尽管它是阳线，但现在市场已经处于下降趋势
38:09 - 38:12
EN: Reasonable to sell on a stop below the low of that bull bar
ZH: 所以在阳线下方挂突破卖单做空也是合理的
38:13 - 38:14
EN: and get filled right here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
38:14 - 38:18
EN: A Low 2 bear flag – Low 1, pullback, Low 2.
ZH: 也可以说它是低2熊旗——低1，反弹，低2
38:18 - 38:24
EN: I think of it more as a Wedge – up, down, up, down, and then up again.
ZH: 我会把它看作楔形熊旗—— 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌；然后第3次上涨
Slide 020
Time: 38:30
Bilingual Transcript
38:34 - 38:37
EN: We have a very Tight Bull Channel and then we have a break below the trend line.
ZH: 非常窄的上涨通道，然后跌破趋势线
38:37 - 38:39
EN: The channel is very, very tight.
ZH: 通道非常非常窄
38:39 - 38:42
EN: The reversal is probably going to be minor,
ZH: 所以大概率只是小反转
38:42 - 38:44
EN: become a bull flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 变成牛旗或震荡区间
38:46 - 38:53
EN: However, every time a tight bull trend has a correction
ZH: 每当窄上涨通道的回调跌破了趋势线， 就可以画一条新的趋势线
38:49 - 38:53
EN: that breaks below the trend line, you can draw a new line.
ZH: 每当窄上涨通道的回调跌破了趋势线， 就可以画一条新的趋势线
38:53 - 38:57
EN: You’ll see that the lines get less steep and the channel gets broader,
ZH: 可以看到，趋势线不再那么陡峭，通道变得更宽了
38:57 - 39:01
EN: and eventually the market transitions into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终市场过渡到震荡区间
39:01 - 39:03
EN: We can draw a new line.
ZH: 可以画一条新趋势线
39:03 - 39:05
EN: After this reversal up, we broke below it.
ZH: 在这次突破之后，又跌破了
39:07 - 39:08
EN: We resumed up.
ZH: 恢复上涨
39:08 - 39:10
EN: You can draw a new line.
ZH: 画一条新趋势线
39:10 - 39:13
EN: You can see the lines are getting less steep.
ZH: 趋势线越来越平缓
39:13 - 39:16
EN: The trend is becoming flatter, and it’s also becoming broader.
ZH: 趋势也变得更平坦，通道更宽了
39:16 - 39:18
EN: It was very tight right here.
ZH: 之前这里非常窄
39:18 - 39:21
EN: If I draw a line across the top of the channel,
ZH: 如果我在上沿也画一条线，
39:21 - 39:23
EN: you can see the trend is becoming broader.
ZH: 就可以看到通道变得越来越宽
39:25 - 39:27
EN: Another attempt to reverse up.
ZH: 又有新的低点
39:27 - 39:32
EN: You can draw another line, and you can see the trend is becoming less steep.
ZH: 再画一条趋势线，可以看到它们的斜率越来越小
39:32 - 39:34
EN: It’s becoming flatter and flatter and flatter,
ZH: 它变得越来越平缓
39:34 - 39:36
EN: and eventually it evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终它演变为震荡区间
39:37 - 39:39
EN: It’s a Trading Range at this point.
ZH: 此时市场处于一个大的区间
39:39 - 39:42
EN: This is probably going to be a bear leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 这大概率是震荡区间中的下跌波段
39:42 - 39:47
EN: and this entire collection of bars is probably going to end up
ZH: 今天的整个价格行为，会导致明天的行情继续震荡
39:45 - 39:47
EN: as a Trading Range the next day.
ZH: 今天的整个价格行为，会导致明天的行情继续震荡
39:47 - 39:50
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion, and the market probably
ZH: 大涨，大跌，造成大的困惑，
39:50 - 39:53
EN: will go sideways for the next 20 or 30 bars.
ZH: 在接下来的20~30根K线里，市场很可能会继续横盘震荡
39:56 - 40:00
EN: Very tight bull trend, and it evolved into a Trading Range.
ZH: 非常窄的上涨趋势，最终演变为震荡区间
40:00 - 40:03
EN: Once it’s in a Trading Range, BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 一旦进入震荡区间，就变成了突破模式
40:03 - 40:06
EN: 50% chance there’ll be a successful bull breakout,
ZH: 50%的概率会成功地向上突破
40:06 - 40:09
EN: 50% chance there’ll be a successful bear breakout.
ZH: 50%的概率会成功地向下跌破
40:09 - 40:13
EN: 50% chance the first breakout will fail and reverse.
ZH: 第1次突破有50%的概率会失败并反转
Slide 021
Time: 40:15
Bilingual Transcript
40:20 - 40:26
EN: Any time a trend lasts 20 or more bars, you should look for signs
ZH: 每当一个趋势持续超过20根K线， 你就应该寻找它可能会进入震荡区间的信号了
40:24 - 40:26
EN: that it might evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 每当一个趋势持续超过20根K线， 你就应该寻找它可能会进入震荡区间的信号了
40:26 - 40:31
EN: This channel is so tight, it was unlikely to be the end of the bull trend.
ZH: 这个通道非常窄，上涨趋势不太会直接结束
40:31 - 40:36
EN: But here we have a second Wedge Top – one, two, three – after this Wedge Top.
ZH: 但这里形成了第2个楔形顶——1，2，3； 之前已经有一个楔形顶了
40:36 - 40:40
EN: Higher probability that we would soon evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 即将进入震荡区间的概率就变得更高了
40:45 - 40:47
EN: Very strong bull trend.
ZH: 非常强的上涨趋势
40:47 - 40:48
EN: It’s a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
40:48 - 40:50
EN: We only have a 1 bar pullback.
ZH: 回调只持续1根K线
40:50 - 40:53
EN: This bar is a bear bar and doesn’t even pull back.
ZH: 而这根阴线甚至不属于严格的回调 （注：没有跌破前一根K线的低点）
40:53 - 40:56
EN: This is the first pullback in a very strong bull trend.
ZH: 它实际上是这个强上涨趋势的第一次回调
40:56 - 40:59
EN: The odds are it’ll become a pause in the bull trend,
ZH: 大概率会成为上涨趋势中的一个停顿
40:59 - 41:02
EN: a bull flag, and that we’ll get trend resumption up.
ZH: 一个牛旗，然后上涨趋势会恢复
41:09 - 41:15
EN: However, we’ve had the trend resumption up and now we’re starting
ZH: 然而，在趋势恢复之后，现在开始出现很多非常小的K线， 很多十字星、阴线
41:12 - 41:15
EN: to get a lot of very small bars, doji bars, bear bars,
ZH: 然而，在趋势恢复之后，现在开始出现很多非常小的K线， 很多十字星、阴线
41:15 - 41:18
EN: and this is probably the end of the bull trend.
ZH: 所以上涨趋势很可能即将结束
41:19 - 41:24
EN: The probability that we’re going higher
ZH: 在这10根K线出现之后，继续上涨的概率不再是60%了
41:21 - 41:24
EN: after you see about 10 bars is no longer 60%.
ZH: 在这10根K线出现之后，继续上涨的概率不再是60%了
41:24 - 41:30
EN: It becomes 50% once you start to get 10 or 20 bars
ZH: 窄震荡区间持续了10~20根K线之后， 继续上涨的概率降低到了50%
41:28 - 41:30
EN: in a very tight range like this.
ZH: 窄震荡区间持续了10~20根K线之后， 继续上涨的概率降低到了50%
41:30 - 41:35
EN: 50% chance you’re going higher, 50% chance you’re going lower.
ZH: 50%的概率上涨，50%的概率下跌
41:38 - 41:41
EN: Again, 50% chance the bull trend will resume.
ZH: 50%的概率上涨趋势会恢复
41:41 - 41:46
EN: 50% chance the bull trend will reverse into a bear trend.
ZH: 50%的概率会反转为下降趋势
Slide 022
Time: 41:50
Bilingual Transcript
41:57 - 41:58
EN: Very strong bull channel.
ZH: 非常强的上涨通道
41:59 - 42:01
EN: All channels eventually end.
ZH: 但所有的通道最终都会结束
42:01 - 42:05
EN: We have a spike up here, a pullback, and now we’re starting to channel up.
ZH: 极速上涨，回调，然后开始进入通道
42:05 - 42:10
EN: 75% chance whenever you have any channel, you’ll get a bear breakout
ZH: 不管是什么上涨通道，75%的概率会被向下跌破
42:10 - 42:12
EN: - a break below the bottom of the channel.
ZH: ——跌破上涨趋势线
42:12 - 42:16
EN: The breakout can be down, or it can simply be sideways.
ZH: 以下跌或横盘的方式，跌破趋势线
42:16 - 42:20
EN: 25% chance you’ll get a bull breakout above a bull trend
ZH: 25%的概率会加速向上突破
42:20 - 42:22
EN: and then an even stronger bull trend.
ZH: 然后变成更强的上涨趋势
42:27 - 42:31
EN: Here we had the bear breakout and the bull trend resumed
ZH: 这里，在空头反转之后，上涨趋势恢复
42:31 - 42:34
EN: and became a broader bull channel.
ZH: 不过变成了更宽的通道
42:34 - 42:37
EN: It was very tight here and became broader here.
ZH: 这里非常窄，然后在这里变得更宽
42:42 - 42:46
EN: I began with talking about many ways to buy in a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了在窄上涨通道中各种买入的方法
Slide 023
Time: 42:45
Bilingual Transcript
42:46 - 42:50
EN: Again, when the channel is tight you should only be looking to buy.
ZH: 反复强调，如果通道很窄，你应该只考虑做多
42:50 - 42:52
EN: It’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 因为在更高的时间周期上它就是一次突破
42:52 - 42:56
EN: And next I talked about where to put stops – if you’re buying in a bull trend,
ZH: 然后我讲了如何设置止损——如果你在上涨趋势中买入
42:56 - 43:00
EN: you should be putting your stop below the most recent major Higher Low
ZH: 你应该把止损放在最近一个重要的低点下方
43:00 - 43:02
EN: - and where to take profits.
ZH: ——还讲了如何止盈
43:02 - 43:07
EN: Your minimum goal is always one times Actual Risk if it’s a trend,
ZH: 在趋势中，最低目标是1倍实际风险
43:07 - 43:14
EN: because if it’s a trend, the probability of making your profit
ZH: 因为既然是趋势，先达到目标位而不是先打掉止损的概率至少是60%
43:11 - 43:14
EN: before hitting your stop is 60% or higher.
ZH: 因为既然是趋势，先达到目标位而不是先打掉止损的概率至少是60%
43:14 - 43:19
EN: If one times Actual Risk is too small, then go for one times Initial Risk.
ZH: 如果实际风险太小，那就选择1倍初始风险
43:20 - 43:24
EN: And if the trend is strong, try to swing at least half of your trade.
ZH: 如果趋势很强，至少应该持有一半的头寸做波段交易
43:24 - 43:26
EN: Do not scalp your entire position.
ZH: 不要剥头皮止盈全部头寸
43:26 - 43:30
EN: And finally, all channels, whether or not they’re tight,
ZH: 最后，所有的通道，不管是宽是窄，
43:30 - 43:32
EN: evolve into Trading Ranges.
ZH: 都会变成震荡区间
43:36 - 43:37
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
43:37 - 43:39
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
43:39 - 43:44
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading Tight Bull Channels.
ZH: 如何交易窄上涨通道的4节课，到这里就全部讲完了