al-brooks-course
40D - Entering Late in Trends
Raw transcript and slide notes for 40D - Entering Late in Trends.
Overview
- Slides: 14
- Transcript segments: 328
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 这是在趋势后期入场的第4节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I’m going to continue a little bit what I talked about in the final slides
ZH: 我会沿着上节课最后的案例继续讲解——
00:18 - 00:28
EN: of the last video about disappointed bears – bears who sell closes
ZH: 下降趋势中卖收盘的空头，在看到令人失望的K线， 比如入场之后立刻看到一根阳线
00:23 - 00:28
EN: and then they get a bar that disappoints them,
ZH: 下降趋势中卖收盘的空头，在看到令人失望的K线， 比如入场之后立刻看到一根阳线
00:26 - 00:28
EN: like a bull reversal bar right after they enter.
ZH: 下降趋势中卖收盘的空头，在看到令人失望的K线， 比如入场之后立刻看到一根阳线
00:30 - 00:39
EN: And then I talk about how they get trapped by those disappointment bars
ZH: 然后我会讲解，这些失望的、被套牢的空头， 在下降趋势的末尾是如何放弃的
00:35 - 00:39
EN: at the end of a bear trend and how they then give up.
ZH: 然后我会讲解，这些失望的、被套牢的空头， 在下降趋势的末尾是如何放弃的
00:39 - 00:42
EN: They exit, and that creates a Give-up Bar
ZH: 他们离场，形成了放弃K线——
00:42 - 00:45
EN: - a bull trend bar, which represents the final bears giving up.
ZH: 一根大阳线，代表最后的空头也都放弃了
Slide 002
Time: 00:47
Bilingual Transcript
00:49 - 00:53
EN: We have a spike and pullback and channel bull trend
ZH: 急速、回调、上涨通道
00:53 - 00:56
EN: - so spike, Wedge – and we have a selloff.
ZH: ——急速上涨，楔形顶——反转下跌
00:56 - 00:57
EN: A weak selloff.
ZH: 较弱的抛售
00:57 - 00:59
EN: It looks like a bear leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 看起来像是震荡区间中的下跌波段
00:59 - 01:02
EN: and therefore we’ll probably go higher.
ZH: 因此更大的概率是恢复上涨
01:02 - 01:03
EN: Instead, we got this.
ZH: 然而，出现了这个
01:03 - 01:04
EN: We have a bear breakout.
ZH: 向下跌破
01:05 - 01:12
EN: Once you have 2 consecutive big bear bars like this breaking below
ZH: 这里原本应该有一些支撑， 但是这样两根连续的大阴线跌破，市场瞬间处于单边下跌
01:09 - 01:12
EN: what should have been support, the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 这里原本应该有一些支撑， 但是这样两根连续的大阴线跌破，市场瞬间处于单边下跌
01:12 - 01:17
EN: The odds are we’re going lower – probably for some Measured Move down.
ZH: 所以大概率会继续下跌——大概率跌到某个MM目标位
01:17 - 01:22
EN: Now we have a third consecutive decent bear bar closing below its midpoint.
ZH: 现在有第3根连续的强势阴线，收在一半以下
01:22 - 01:26
EN: 60% chance the market will fall for a Measured Move down,
ZH: 市场有60%的概率会下跌到MM目标位
01:26 - 01:30
EN: maybe based upon the open of the first bar to the close of the final bar.
ZH: 比如从第一根K线的开盘价，到最后一根K线的收盘价， 往下翻一倍
01:31 - 01:37
EN: So 60% chance it will get down here before it gets back up here
ZH: 有60%的概率，会先下跌到那里，而不是先上涨打掉空头的止损
01:36 - 01:37
EN: where the bears have their stops.
ZH: 有60%的概率，会先下跌到那里，而不是先上涨打掉空头的止损
01:38 - 01:41
EN: This is a Sell The Close market by the second close.
ZH: 自从第2根阴线收盘的那一刻， 市场就进入了卖收盘的下降趋势
01:41 - 01:44
EN: By this second close, the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 从这里开始，市场就进入单边下跌了
01:44 - 01:47
EN: 60% chance we’ll fall for a Measured Move.
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到MM目标位
01:47 - 01:49
EN: 40% chance we will not.
ZH: 40%的概率不会
01:50 - 01:54
EN: The bears who sell for any reason – for example, if they sell this close
ZH: 不管空头在哪里卖出——比如，如果在它的收盘卖出
01:54 - 01:59
EN: - 40% chance it’s going to get here before it falls for a Measured Move down.
ZH: ——40%的概率，会上涨打掉止损，而不是先跌到MM目标位
02:02 - 02:03
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 看这根K线
02:03 - 02:08
EN: We have a bar with a big tail on the bottom, but it does not have a bull close.
ZH: 下影线很长，但最后并没有收成阳线
02:08 - 02:13
EN: Some bears will sell that close as well, betting that the reversal will be minor
ZH: 一些空头也会在它的收盘卖出，押注这只是一次小反弹
02:13 - 02:17
EN: (a bear flag) and that the bear trend will continue down.
ZH: （只是熊旗），并且下降趋势会继续
02:17 - 02:21
EN: They don’t sell every close, but bears looking to sell look
ZH: 并不是说让你每根K线的收盘都去卖出， 但在下降趋势中
02:21 - 02:25
EN: to sell closes as a very good way to sell in a bear trend.
ZH: 卖收盘是一个很好的入场方式
02:26 - 02:29
EN: Some bears sell every close and they just keep adding to their position.
ZH: 一些空头会在每根K线的收盘都卖出，不断加大自己的仓位
02:29 - 02:33
EN: Most traders sell once, maybe add on one more time.
ZH: 大多数交易者都只是卖出一次，最多再加仓一次
02:33 - 02:39
EN: Traders who did not sell here or here might finally decide
ZH: 在这里或这里，没有入场做空的交易者， 可能最终决定在它的收盘卖出，
02:38 - 02:45
EN: to sell the close here, confident there’s a 60% chance
ZH: 在这里或这里，没有入场做空的交易者， 可能最终决定在它的收盘卖出， 相信有60%的概率不会上涨打掉止损， 而是会继续下跌
02:41 - 02:45
EN: we’re going lower before it gets up to their stop level.
ZH: 相信有60%的概率不会上涨打掉止损， 而是会继续下跌
02:51 - 02:55
EN: A lot of bears, when they see a big tail like this, they stop selling.
ZH: 当看到这么长的下影线时，很多空头会暂停卖出
02:55 - 02:59
EN: They know we’ll get a minor reversal and they’ll be able to sell higher.
ZH: 他们认为会有一定的反弹，所以他们可以在更高的价格卖出
03:04 - 03:09
EN: However, some bears will aggressively sell the close all the way down,
ZH: 然而，一些空头会在下跌过程中非常激进地卖收盘
03:09 - 03:11
EN: including the close of this reversal bar,
ZH: 包括这根反转十字星的收盘
03:11 - 03:19
EN: knowing that it does not have a bull body and the odds are
ZH: 因为它没有收成阳线，而且就算有反弹，大概率也只是小反转
03:15 - 03:19
EN: if it does start to reverse, the reversal will be minor
ZH: 因为它没有收成阳线，而且就算有反弹，大概率也只是小反转
03:19 - 03:20
EN: and the bear trend will continue.
ZH: 然后下降趋势会继续
03:21 - 03:25
EN: You can only do that if you can manage your trades correctly
ZH: 这样做的前提是，你要能够正确地管理交易——
03:25 - 03:29
EN: and if you can scale in and use the appropriate stops.
ZH: 可以逢高加仓，并且设置正确的止损
Slide 003
Time: 03:30
Bilingual Transcript
03:31 - 03:36
EN: It sounds easy, but it’s not, and this is for advanced traders only.
ZH: 听起来很容易，但实际上并不容易， 只有高手交易者可以这么做
03:38 - 03:43
EN: What do you do if you sold that close and now we have a second reversal bar?
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出了，现在出现了第2根反转K线， 应该怎么办？
03:43 - 03:48
EN: Yes, there’s not a bull body, but it still has a very big tail on the bottom.
ZH: 尽管它也不是阳线，但又有很长的下影线
03:48 - 03:51
EN: That tells you that the market went down and people bought.
ZH: 市场下跌，有很多人买入
03:51 - 03:54
EN: It went down again and traders bought again.
ZH: 再次尝试下跌，又被买起来了
03:55 - 03:59
EN: Bulls bought betting on a Higher Low compared to the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: 多头买入，押注之前上涨趋势的低点不会被跌破
03:59 - 04:04
EN: and a lot of bears bought because they were disappointed by the follow-through
ZH: 很多空头也在买入回补，因为他们对跟随感到失望
04:04 - 04:09
EN: and they’re trying to get out breakeven or with a small profit,
ZH: 取决于他们的入场位置， 空头想要在不亏损，或者略微盈利的时候离场
04:07 - 04:09
EN: depending on where they sold.
ZH: 取决于他们的入场位置， 空头想要在不亏损，或者略微盈利的时候离场
04:15 - 04:20
EN: A lot of the bears who sold this close know there’s a big tail on the bottom
ZH: 很多在这个收盘价卖出的空头看到了这么长的下影线
04:20 - 04:24
EN: and that the market might soon begin to transition into a Trading Range,
ZH: 认为市场可能即将转变成震荡区间
04:24 - 04:28
EN: and therefore a lot of them are looking to scalp – maybe for 2 points.
ZH: 因此很多人都只想做一笔剥头皮交易——比如赚两个点
04:28 - 04:33
EN: So they might sell this close and place a limit order
ZH: 例如，在它的收盘卖出， 然后在下方2个点的地方挂止盈的限价买单
04:31 - 04:38
EN: to buy back 2 points lower, and they’re willing to scale in higher
ZH: 例如，在它的收盘卖出， 然后在下方2个点的地方挂止盈的限价买单 如果价格没有达到目标，他们也愿意逢高加仓
04:35 - 04:38
EN: if it does not get down to their target.
ZH: 如果价格没有达到目标，他们也愿意逢高加仓
04:45 - 04:48
EN: This is 2 points below that close.
ZH: 下方2个点的距离在这里
04:48 - 04:53
EN: If a bear sold that close, he puts a limit order 2 points down,
ZH: 如果一个空头在它的收盘卖出， 然后在下方2个点挂限价买单，
04:53 - 04:55
EN: which is right at the low of this bar.
ZH: 正好就在这根K线的最低点
04:55 - 04:57
EN: And look at the low of this bar.
ZH: 仔细看后面一根K线的下影线
04:57 - 05:00
EN: It did not get down to the low of that bar,
ZH: 正好没有跌到前一根K线的最低点
05:00 - 05:05
EN: and therefore it missed filling the limit order by 1 tick.
ZH: 差1个tick让空头的限价买单成交
05:05 - 05:08
EN: It fell 8 ticks from that close.
ZH: 它下跌了8 ticks
05:08 - 05:11
EN: Most of the bears have their limit orders 8 ticks down,
ZH: 空头的限价单也挂在下方8 ticks
05:11 - 05:13
EN: and those orders are not filled.
ZH: 但那些订单无法确保成交
05:13 - 05:20
EN: 95% of the time it has to go 9 ticks for you to exit
ZH: 95%的时候，需要下跌9 ticks， 才能让8 ticks的限价单成交
05:18 - 05:20
EN: with 8 ticks on a limit order.
ZH: 95%的时候，需要下跌9 ticks， 才能让8 ticks的限价单成交
05:26 - 05:30
EN: The market reversed up pretty quickly without filling those orders.
ZH: 市场迅速反转上涨，那些订单没有能够成交
05:30 - 05:34
EN: If you’re a bear scalper who sold this close and looked for a 2 points profit
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出做空，想做一笔两个点的剥头皮交易
05:34 - 05:37
EN: and it hit your limit order, did not fill you,
ZH: 市场刚好碰到了你的限价买单，却没有能够成交
05:37 - 05:40
EN: and now is back to your entry price, what are you going to do?
ZH: 然后很快涨回到了你的入场价，此时该怎么办？
05:41 - 05:44
EN: If you’re a scalper, you’ll probably buy back your short
ZH: 如果是剥头皮交易者，应该要买入回补 （注：剥头皮无法接受利润回撤，先离场，然后等待下一个机会）
05:44 - 05:47
EN: either on the way up or right around your entry price.
ZH: 要么在上涨时市价买入，要么在入场价附近离场
05:49 - 05:51
EN: Why did the market do this?
ZH: 为什么市场会这么做？
05:51 - 05:54
EN: Because too many bears do not believe in the bear trend.
ZH: 因为有太多的空头对下降趋势丧失了信心
05:55 - 05:57
EN: The market sold off, went up.
ZH: 下跌，涨回来
05:58 - 05:59
EN: The bears started scalping.
ZH: 空头开始剥头皮（注：而不是继续坚定持有做波段交易）
05:59 - 06:01
EN: It went down again, it went up.
ZH: 下跌，又涨回来
06:01 - 06:03
EN: Bears are scalping.
ZH: 空头在剥头皮
06:03 - 06:06
EN: Instead of holding for a swing trade, they’re taking quick profits,
ZH: 他们没有坚定持有做波段交易，而是赚快钱离场
06:06 - 06:08
EN: and the bulls are buying as well.
ZH: 同时，多头也在买入
Slide 004
Time: 06:10
Bilingual Transcript
06:12 - 06:15
EN: Now what do you do, if you did not exit your short?
ZH: 如果你做空了，还没有离场，现在该怎么办？
06:15 - 06:17
EN: Think about this for a second.
ZH: 稍微思考一下这个情况
06:20 - 06:22
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 有一个小双底
06:22 - 06:24
EN: Disappointed bears who were hoping
ZH: 想要剥头皮赚2个点的空头感到失望 （注：差一点点就可以成交止盈，但没有）
06:24 - 06:27
EN: to make a 2 point scalp probably are giving up.
ZH: 他们开始放弃
06:34 - 06:39
EN: Some of the bears who sold this close and then they see this second doji bar,
ZH: 一些空头在这里卖出做空，然后看到了第2个反转的十字星
06:39 - 06:46
EN: instead of trying for a 2 points profit,
ZH: 此时他们甚至不再追求2个点的利润， 而是把限价买单抬高到1个点的位置
06:42 - 06:46
EN: they’ll raise their limit order to 1 point below their entry price.
ZH: 此时他们甚至不再追求2个点的利润， 而是把限价买单抬高到1个点的位置
06:46 - 06:51
EN: They sold here; they were disappointed that they did not get filled here.
ZH: 他们在这里卖出；对2个点的限价买单没有成交而感到失望
06:51 - 06:56
EN: They’ll then raise their profit target to 1 point below their entry.
ZH: 于是把利润目标缩小到1个点(即4个ticks)的距离
06:56 - 06:57
EN: And look at the low of this bar.
ZH: 看这根K线的最低点
06:57 - 07:03
EN: It fell exactly 4 ticks from their entry, and therefore they did not get filled.
ZH: 正好距离他们的入场价4个ticks， 因此绝大部分限价买单又没有成交（注：好惨啊）
07:03 - 07:07
EN: Just like they did not get filled for 2 points profit here,
ZH: 之前差一点点就可以赚到2个点
07:07 - 07:10
EN: they did not get filled for 1 point profit here.
ZH: 这里又差一点点，没能赚到1个点
07:10 - 07:15
EN: It had to fall 5 ticks from that close where they sold; it only fell 4 ticks.
ZH: 比如下跌5 ticks才能确保成交，但市场只下跌了4 ticks
07:16 - 07:19
EN: Again, it hit their limit order and reversed up.
ZH: 又一次，刚好碰到限价买单，就反转上涨
07:24 - 07:30
EN: A lot of those bears then would finally give up and try to get out breakeven,
ZH: 那些空头最终放弃了盈利的目标， 觉得能够不亏钱离场就满足了
07:28 - 07:30
EN: and give up trying to make a profit.
ZH: 那些空头最终放弃了盈利的目标， 觉得能够不亏钱离场就满足了
07:34 - 07:40
EN: What’s going on now? Well, we’re rallying for about 8 bars with small pullbacks.
ZH: 现在呢？反弹了8根K线，途中的回调都很小
Slide 005
Time: 07:35
Bilingual Transcript
07:40 - 07:42
EN: A 1 tick pullback here.
ZH: 低于前1根K线的低点，但只有1个tick
07:42 - 07:45
EN: The market looks like it’s beginning to reverse this selloff.
ZH: 看起来市场正在反转上涨
07:49 - 07:50
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 仔细看这里
07:51 - 07:54
EN: This low fell 1 tick below this close.
ZH: 它在那个收盘价的下方1个tick
07:54 - 07:59
EN: Some of the bears held short through this, and instead of trying
ZH: 一些空头仍然在继续持有，
07:59 - 08:05
EN: for a 2 point profit or for a 1 point profit, now after they see this bull bar,
ZH: 但他们不再尝试赚1个点或两个点； 在看到这根阳线之后，
08:05 - 08:09
EN: if they did not already get out, they’re trying to get out breakeven.
ZH: 还没有离场的空头，现在的目标是不亏钱
08:09 - 08:13
EN: And it had to fall 1 tick below their entry price – they sold here,
ZH: 必须多跌1个tick(限价买单)才能成交—— 他们在这里卖出，
08:13 - 08:17
EN: and this low went 1 tick below their entry price and reversed up.
ZH: 这里下跌了1个tick，然后反转上涨
08:18 - 08:23
EN: That tells you that a lot of the bears
ZH: 这说明很多之前还没放弃的空头， 最终在这里打平离场了
08:20 - 08:23
EN: who did not get out earlier are finally getting out.
ZH: 这说明很多之前还没放弃的空头， 最终在这里打平离场了
08:23 - 08:26
EN: It fell 1 tick below their entry price.
ZH: 这里比它们的入场价低1个tick （注：所以挂在入场价的限价买单能够确保成交）
08:26 - 08:28
EN: The market allowed them to get out.
ZH: 这些空头最终得以离场
08:32 - 08:39
EN: The bears who did not take the opportunities to get out
ZH: 一些空头错过了这个打平离场的机会， 现在他们要寻求一个脱身之术
08:35 - 08:39
EN: breakeven now are starting to look for reasons to get out.
ZH: 一些空头错过了这个打平离场的机会， 现在他们要寻求一个脱身之术
08:40 - 08:44
EN: Now the bears who are still remaining will get out with a loss.
ZH: 他们只能在亏损的情况下离场了
08:44 - 08:48
EN: For example, they might buy with a limit order below the low of this bull bar,
ZH: 例如，他们可能会在这个阳线的低点挂限价买单
08:48 - 08:53
EN: betting that it’s a low probability sell and there probably are buyers below.
ZH: 因为这不是一个好的做空入场点， 下方大概率有更多买盘
08:53 - 08:56
EN: Some of those buyers are bears buying back their shorts,
ZH: 其中一些买盘来自于回补的空头
08:56 - 08:59
EN: trying to minimize their loss.
ZH: 他们想要以最小的亏损离场
09:04 - 09:09
EN: Not all of those bears exited, and there are always some trapped bears
ZH: 不是所有的空头都离场了， 总会有一些在下降趋势末尾被套牢的人
Slide 006
Time: 09:05
Bilingual Transcript
09:08 - 09:11
EN: at the end of a bear trend, and I want to talk about them right now.
ZH: 不是所有的空头都离场了， 总会有一些在下降趋势末尾被套牢的人 现在我就想讲一讲这部分交易者
Slide 007
Time: 09:13
Bilingual Transcript
09:19 - 09:25
EN: The bulls knew that the bars were big enough so that the bears
ZH: 因为这些K线足够大，所以多头知道， 在这个收盘价做空的空头想要追求2个点的利润
09:22 - 09:25
EN: who sold that close were hoping for a 2 point profit,
ZH: 因为这些K线足够大，所以多头知道， 在这个收盘价做空的空头想要追求2个点的利润
09:26 - 09:29
EN: and then once they were unable to get their 2 point profit,
ZH: 一旦他们发现赚不到2个点
09:29 - 09:32
EN: they’d try for a 1 point profit, and once they were unable
ZH: 他们会退而求其次，尝试赚1个点
09:32 - 09:35
EN: to get their 1 point profit, they would try to get out breakeven.
ZH: 如果连1个点都赚不到，那么空头的目标就会变成打平离场
09:41 - 09:44
EN: If you’re a bull and you know that, you know the bears are going
ZH: 如果你是多头，并且你知道这些事情，
09:44 - 09:48
EN: to try to buy 8 ticks below this bar, and then if not filled,
ZH: 你知道空头尝试在下方8 ticks止盈，没有成交
09:48 - 09:51
EN: they’ll try to buy 4 ticks below that close.
ZH: 然后空头会尝试在下方4 ticks止盈
09:52 - 09:58
EN: Those bulls are placing limit orders a tick or two
ZH: 于是那些多头会在空头尝试止盈的价格上方1到2个ticks挂限价买单
09:55 - 09:58
EN: above where the bears are trying to exit with a profit
ZH: 于是那些多头会在空头尝试止盈的价格上方1到2个ticks挂限价买单
09:58 - 10:02
EN: - trying to keep the bears from making their profit and forcing the bears
ZH: ——让价格跌不下去，阻止空头止盈
10:02 - 10:08
EN: to buy back their shorts at a higher price, which could lead to a reversal.
ZH: 迫使空头在更高的价格买入回补，就有机会制造反转
10:11 - 10:14
EN: Some of these bulls who bought either here
ZH: 一些多头在这里或这里买入
10:14 - 10:17
EN: or here will put their stop right below the Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 他们把止损放在小双底的下方
10:17 - 10:18
EN: Small risk.
ZH: 风险很小
10:18 - 10:22
EN: Usually when your risk is small, the probability of success is small as well.
ZH: 通常如果风险很小，那么成功的概率也很小
10:23 - 10:26
EN: At this point the market’s still Always In Short,
ZH: 此时市场仍然处于单边下跌
10:26 - 10:28
EN: and it’s still Always In Short here,
ZH: 在这根K线也是
10:28 - 10:30
EN: so the probability is that we’re going lower.
ZH: 所以更大的概率会继续下跌
10:30 - 10:34
EN: However, the risk is small enough and the reward is big enough
ZH: 然而，风险足够小，利润足够大
10:34 - 10:39
EN: so that it’s still mathematically okay for the bulls to take these buys.
ZH: 所以数学上，多头这样做仍然是合理的
10:39 - 10:44
EN: They lose most of the time, but the reward is two or three times greater
ZH: 他们大多数时候会亏损，但利润至少是风险的两到三倍
10:44 - 10:47
EN: than their risk, and that makes the Trader’s Equation positive.
ZH: 是的数学期望为正
10:59 - 11:08
EN: For example, the bulls who bought here, they knew the bears needed the market
ZH: 例如，在这里买入的多头， 他们知道空头需要下跌5 ticks才能赚到1个点(4 ticks)
11:03 - 11:08
EN: to fall 5 ticks to make a 1 point profit had they sold this close.
ZH: 例如，在这里买入的多头， 他们知道空头需要下跌5 ticks才能赚到1个点(4 ticks)
11:09 - 11:14
EN: Therefore, the bulls placed a limit order to buy 2, 3,
ZH: 因此，多头把限价单挂在那个收盘价下方2、3、4个ticks的地方
11:13 - 11:18
EN: or 4 ticks below that close, hoping that enough other bulls
ZH: 因此，多头把限价单挂在那个收盘价下方2、3、4个ticks的地方 如果有足够多的多头在买入，就可以让空头被套牢
11:16 - 11:18
EN: would buy as well, trapping the bears.
ZH: 如果有足够多的多头在买入，就可以让空头被套牢
11:18 - 11:21
EN: The bears would then not get their 1 point profit
ZH: 空头赚不到1个点的剥头皮利润
11:21 - 11:23
EN: and they would have to buy back higher.
ZH: 于是不得不在更高的价格买入回补
11:24 - 11:29
EN: The bulls who did buy here probably would put their stop
ZH: 那些在这里买入的多头把止损放在小双底的下方
11:27 - 11:29
EN: below the Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 那些在这里买入的多头把止损放在小双底的下方
11:30 - 11:35
EN: These bulls are betting on a Tight Trading Range
ZH: 他们押注市场进入震荡区间，而不是恢复下降趋势
11:33 - 11:35
EN: rather than a continued bear trend.
ZH: 他们押注市场进入震荡区间，而不是恢复下降趋势
11:35 - 11:38
EN: They know the reversal is probably minor
ZH: 多头知道大概率只是小反转
11:38 - 11:41
EN: and the best they’ll probably get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们能得到的最好结果可能也就是震荡区间而已
11:41 - 11:48
EN: However, they know also sometimes a minor reversal leads
ZH: 然而，偶尔小反转会逐渐发展成大反转，变成上涨趋势
11:45 - 11:48
EN: into a major reversal, into a bull trend.
ZH: 然而，偶尔小反转会逐渐发展成大反转，变成上涨趋势
Slide 008
Time: 11:50
Bilingual Transcript
11:50 - 11:54
EN: Usually if you’re buying in a bear trend, you’re scalping,
ZH: 通常，如果你在下降趋势中买入做多，你是在做剥头皮
11:54 - 11:59
EN: expecting a Trading Range, expecting the bear trend to end
ZH: 你预期的是下降趋势结束，变成震荡区间
11:57 - 11:59
EN: and evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 你预期的是下降趋势结束，变成震荡区间
12:04 - 12:06
EN: This is what the bulls see.
ZH: 多头看到了这些信息
12:06 - 12:11
EN: They see that the market fell for about a Measured Move
ZH: 他们看到市场下跌到了MM目标位—— 把这个失败的牛旗的高度往下翻一倍
12:09 - 12:11
EN: based upon the height of this potential bull flag.
ZH: 他们看到市场下跌到了MM目标位—— 把这个失败的牛旗的高度往下翻一倍
12:11 - 12:13
EN: It’s a Higher Low.
ZH: 低点抬高（注：高于左边的起涨点）
12:13 - 12:17
EN: It’s turning up above the bottom of the bull breakout,
ZH: 没有跌破起涨点，就开始反转上涨
12:17 - 12:18
EN: and we have a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 而且这里还有小双底
12:18 - 12:21
EN: All good for the bulls.
ZH: 这些都对多头有利
12:24 - 12:29
EN: Final bears, most of the final bears will be exiting here with a small loss.
ZH: 最后的空头，大多数会在这里小亏离场
12:29 - 12:34
EN: They know that we’re probably going to begin to enter a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们知道市场大概率会进入震荡区间
12:34 - 12:38
EN: Less likely a major reversal, but probably at least a Trading Range,
ZH: 不一定有大反转，但大概率至少是震荡区间
12:38 - 12:43
EN: and a lot of the bears will get out
ZH: 于是很多空头离场，使多头得到了反转趋势的机会
12:40 - 12:43
EN: and give the bulls an opportunity to reverse the market.
ZH: 于是很多空头离场，使多头得到了反转趋势的机会
12:43 - 12:48
EN: If after 5 or 10 bars the bulls are unable to reverse the market,
ZH: 如果在5~10根K线后，多头无法反转市场
12:48 - 12:51
EN: the bears will sell again for trend resumption down.
ZH: 空头会再次做空，尝试恢复下降趋势
Slide 009
Time: 12:55
Bilingual Transcript
13:01 - 13:07
EN: Some bulls will buy betting that we have a Higher Low
ZH: 一些多头买入做多，押注低点抬高， 而且在MM目标位形成了小双底
13:05 - 13:07
EN: at a Measured Move target and a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 一些多头买入做多，押注低点抬高， 而且在MM目标位形成了小双底
13:08 - 13:10
EN: They’ll buy on a stop, betting on a swing up
ZH: 他们会用突破买单入场，押注上涨波段
13:10 - 13:13
EN: at least to the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 至少涨到抛售高潮的起跌点
13:14 - 13:16
EN: In general when you have a Sell Climax like this,
ZH: 通常来说，当出现这样的抛售高潮时
13:16 - 13:23
EN: you have a 40% chance that the market will get to the top
ZH: 有40%的概率，市场会先涨到它的起跌点， 而不是先下跌到更下方的MM目标位
13:20 - 13:23
EN: of the Sell Climax before falling for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 有40%的概率，市场会先涨到它的起跌点， 而不是先下跌到更下方的MM目标位
13:23 - 13:26
EN: The bears take the higher probability bet that we’re going down
ZH: 空头选择更高的胜率——押注跌到MM目标位
13:26 - 13:33
EN: for the Measured Move; the bulls take the lower probability bet,
ZH: 多头选择更好的盈亏比——押注会反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点
13:30 - 13:33
EN: betting that we’ll go up to the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 多头选择更好的盈亏比——押注会反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点
13:40 - 13:46
EN: Bears are starting to give up, and the result is every little small pullback,
ZH: 空头开始放弃，每次有一些回调，就有空头逢低买入回补
13:44 - 13:46
EN: the bears are buying back their shorts.
ZH: 空头开始放弃，每次有一些回调，就有空头逢低买入回补
13:46 - 13:51
EN: And these are any of the bears who sold, anywhere in here or anywhere up here.
ZH: 对于所有的空头，不管在这里，这里，还是这里卖出的
13:51 - 13:53
EN: They’re sensing that the market is having
ZH: 他们察觉到市场反转的概率在不断增加，
13:53 - 13:59
EN: an increased probability of a reversal, and therefore any small reversal down,
ZH: 因此每次小幅的下跌都是买入机会，可以亏更少的钱离场
13:59 - 14:07
EN: the bears are selling, trying to minimize their losses or,
ZH: ——对于在高位做空的空头而言， 则是可以略微多赚一点钱离场
14:04 - 14:07
EN: if they bought higher, trying to maximize their profits.
ZH: ——对于在高位做空的空头而言， 则是可以略微多赚一点钱离场
Slide 010
Time: 14:10
Bilingual Transcript
14:12 - 14:16
EN: When the market’s in a strong bear breakout, bears are selling for any reason.
ZH: 强势向下跌破的时候，空头通过各种方法卖出做空
14:16 - 14:19
EN: A popular way to trade it is to sell closes.
ZH: 一种常见的做法就是卖收盘
14:20 - 14:26
EN: However, at some point you end up selling the final bear close in the bear trend
ZH: 然而，在某个时刻， 空头不幸在下降趋势中最后一根阴线的收盘卖出
14:26 - 14:30
EN: and the market reverses, and those bears will give up.
ZH: 然后趋势反转，那些空头会放弃
Slide 011
Time: 14:31
Bilingual Transcript
14:36 - 14:41
EN: The bears who did not get out for any of those reasons
ZH: 一些空头没有像刚才所说的那样提前离场， 但他们肯定要设置止损
14:39 - 14:41
EN: that I talked about earlier have to have a stop.
ZH: 一些空头没有像刚才所说的那样提前离场， 但他们肯定要设置止损
14:41 - 14:45
EN: One logical location for a stop is the top of the Sell Climax
ZH: 一个合理的止损位置是抛售高潮的起跌点，
14:45 - 14:48
EN: or the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 或者整个下跌波段的起跌点
14:54 - 14:58
EN: Some bears will scale in around that stop level,
ZH: 一些空头会在止损位置附近加仓 （注：比如棕色框框）
14:58 - 15:02
EN: betting that the market will fall enough so they can get out breakeven.
ZH: 押注市场会有足够的回调，让他们可以打平离场
15:03 - 15:05
EN: Let’s say a bear sold this close.
ZH: 假设空头在它的收盘卖出做空
15:05 - 15:11
EN: He might sell more below a bear bar here, or he might sell more 2, 3,
ZH: 然后他在这根阴线下方加仓， 或者在上方2、3、4个点的地方加仓，
15:10 - 15:18
EN: 4 points higher, hoping that the market will pull back far enough
ZH: 然后他在这根阴线下方加仓， 或者在上方2、3、4个点的地方加仓， 希望会有足够大的回调， 让他能在两个入场价格的中间打平离场
15:14 - 15:18
EN: so that he can exit breakeven between his two entry prices.
ZH: 希望会有足够大的回调， 让他能在两个入场价格的中间打平离场
15:18 - 15:23
EN: If he sold here, or if he sold here or here, his average price would be here.
ZH: 如果他初始在这里做空，然后在这里或这里加仓， 他的平均成本在这里
15:23 - 15:26
EN: He’s hoping for a pullback down far enough
ZH: 他希望有足够大的回调
15:26 - 15:30
EN: to exit breakeven on the trade, avoid a loss.
ZH: 让他能够打平离场、避免亏损
15:32 - 15:37
EN: As long as the market keeps making Lower Highs, it’s still in a bear trend.
ZH: 只要重要的高点仍然在降低，那么市场就仍然处于下降趋势
15:37 - 15:43
EN: However, if it breaks above a major Lower High, like here or here,
ZH: 然而，如果重要的高点被突破，比如这里或这里
15:43 - 15:46
EN: then the premise of a bear channel is no longer valid.
ZH: 那么下降通道的前提就不再成立
15:46 - 15:50
EN: The market then is either in a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 市场要么处于震荡区间，要么处于上涨趋势
15:50 - 15:53
EN: If bears sold on the premise that it’s a bear trend
ZH: 做空的前提是：市场处于下降趋势
15:53 - 15:57
EN: and now there’s evidence it is not, they’ll buy back their shorts.
ZH: 如果有证据表明不再是下降趋势，那么空头就需要离场
15:57 - 15:58
EN: They’ll give up.
ZH: 他们会放弃
16:03 - 16:07
EN: The bears who held on here or other bears who sold here,
ZH: 那些仍然持有的空头，在这里、这里卖出的空头
16:07 - 16:14
EN: or if they added to their position up here, are hoping for a Double Top
ZH: 或者那些逢高加仓的空头，希望这个高点 能够和它，或者它，形成双顶
16:11 - 16:14
EN: with the top of the Sell Climax or with this Lower High.
ZH: 或者那些逢高加仓的空头，希望这个高点 能够和它，或者它，形成双顶
16:15 - 16:18
EN: Their stop is not far above, and what does that tell you?
ZH: 此时他们的止损距离很近，这说明什么？
16:18 - 16:26
EN: If they sell here and their stop is just a little bit above
ZH: 如果他在这里卖出，止损就在上方一点点距离， 他们的风险非常小 （注：两条黑线都是合理的止损选择）
16:22 - 16:26
EN: at those black lines – either of those black lines – their risk is very small.
ZH: 如果他在这里卖出，止损就在上方一点点距离， 他们的风险非常小 （注：两条黑线都是合理的止损选择）
16:27 - 16:30
EN: Any time you take a trade where the risk is very small,
ZH: 每当一笔交易的风险很小
16:30 - 16:32
EN: you’re probably going to lose.
ZH: 亏损的概率就比较大
16:33 - 16:40
EN: If you have a fantastic risk/reward ratio – which is what you get
ZH: 如果盈亏比非常好——比如这里，风险非常小—— 那么大多数时候会被止损
16:36 - 16:40
EN: with a very small risk – chances are you’re going to lose.
ZH: 如果盈亏比非常好——比如这里，风险非常小—— 那么大多数时候会被止损
16:41 - 16:43
EN: If you have a great risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 如果盈亏比非常好
16:43 - 16:47
EN: then you have to have terrible probability, low probability,
ZH: 那么胜率就很糟糕
16:47 - 16:51
EN: because otherwise you’d have a perfect trade, and perfect trades cannot exist.
ZH: 否则胜率和盈亏比都很好，这样完美的机会是不存在的
16:52 - 16:56
EN: There always has to be somebody willing to take the other side of your trade,
ZH: 每一笔交易都必须要有对手盘才能成交
16:56 - 16:59
EN: and if your trade has a very high probability of a big profit
ZH: 如果你这边的胜率又高、利润又大、
16:59 - 17:04
EN: with very little risk, it’s perfect, and nobody’s going to take the opposite.
ZH: 风险又小，那么这么完美的机会， 不会有人傻到去反向交易
17:04 - 17:15
EN: Therefore, if you’re selling here with very little risk,
ZH: 因此，如果你在这里做空，把止损放在黑线的上方， 风险非常小，但大概率止损会被打掉
17:08 - 17:15
EN: putting a stop just above either of those lines
ZH: 因此，如果你在这里做空，把止损放在黑线的上方， 风险非常小，但大概率止损会被打掉
17:11 - 17:15
EN: or at either of those lines, you’re probably going to lose.
ZH: 因此，如果你在这里做空，把止损放在黑线的上方， 风险非常小，但大概率止损会被打掉
17:15 - 17:18
EN: But the math is still acceptable to take the short.
ZH: 但数学上来说，在这里做空仍然是可以接受的
17:23 - 17:28
EN: Not only is the risk small, and that alone makes the probability small,
ZH: 这里做空胜率很低的原因，不止是因为风险小
17:29 - 17:31
EN: the bull channel is very tight.
ZH: 还因为上涨通道很窄
17:31 - 17:34
EN: We’re probably Always In Long, which means the probability
ZH: 市场大概率已经处于单边上涨
17:34 - 17:41
EN: is we’re going higher, and that Tight Channel further reduces the probability
ZH: 也就是说大概率还会继续上涨， 所以这个窄通道进一步降低了空头在这里做空的胜率
17:39 - 17:41
EN: of bears selling just below their stops.
ZH: 也就是说大概率还会继续上涨， 所以这个窄通道进一步降低了空头在这里做空的胜率
17:48 - 17:52
EN: What took place here? The market went above the two logical stop areas,
ZH: 接下来发生了什么？价格突破了这个合理的止损区域
17:52 - 17:57
EN: the top of the Sell Climax, the top of the bear leg, and the bears gave up.
ZH: 突破了抛售高潮和下跌波段的起跌点，于是空头放弃
17:57 - 18:03
EN: You also had bulls buying as well, knowing that now the bears
ZH: 同时有多头在不断买入， 他们知道空头下降趋势的前提已经不再成立
18:01 - 18:03
EN: no longer think of this as a bear trend.
ZH: 同时有多头在不断买入， 他们知道空头下降趋势的前提已经不再成立
18:03 - 18:06
EN: They think of it either as a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 此时市场要么是震荡区间，要么是上涨趋势
Slide 012
Time: 18:10
Bilingual Transcript
18:12 - 18:18
EN: Bulls buy on a stop at their stop level, or their higher stop level here.
ZH: 多头在空头止损的位置挂突破买单， 或者在那里挂突破买单
18:18 - 18:19
EN: They buy the breakout.
ZH: 他们要在突破时买入做多
18:19 - 18:21
EN: Some will simply buy at the market.
ZH: 一些人也会直接市价买入
18:21 - 18:23
EN: Some will buy the close of that bar.
ZH: 一些人会在那根K线的收盘买入
18:29 - 18:33
EN: Strong enough breakout, a breakout and a follow-through bar,
ZH: 突破足够强势，突破之后有跟随K线
18:33 - 18:35
EN: probably at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 大概率至少有小的第2段上涨
18:35 - 18:38
EN: And therefore the first reversal down is minor,
ZH: 因此第1次下跌只是小反转
18:38 - 18:41
EN: and bulls will buy at the low of that bar,
ZH: 多头会在那根K线的低点挂限价买单
18:41 - 18:44
EN: betting that there’ll be buyers below and that we’ll continue higher.
ZH: 押注下方有很多买盘，趋势会继续上涨
18:45 - 18:47
EN: They buy at the low of that bar and put a stop either
ZH: 他们在那根K线的低点挂单买入，
18:47 - 18:51
EN: below the bottom of the bull breakout or the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 把止损放在多头突破的起涨点， 或者上涨波段的起涨点下方
Slide 013
Time: 18:55
Bilingual Transcript
18:57 - 19:00
EN: Bears are hoping for a Trading Range.
ZH: 空头希望这是震荡区间
19:00 - 19:04
EN: Some bears who are not short here or who bought back their shorts
ZH: 一些没有入场的空头，或者提前离场的空头
19:04 - 19:07
EN: for any reason are betting that the market’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们押注市场处于震荡区间
19:07 - 19:09
EN: We went up, we went down.
ZH: 大涨、大跌
19:09 - 19:11
EN: We’ve been sideways for 50 or 60 bars.
ZH: 横盘了五六十根K线
19:12 - 19:15
EN: If it’s a Trading Range, traders will buy below bars.
ZH: 按照震荡区间去交易，一些人会在K线下方挂单买入
19:15 - 19:17
EN: They’ll buy below this bar and buy more lower,
ZH: 他们在这根K线下方买入，然后逢低加仓
19:17 - 19:20
EN: betting that it’ll get back above that low.
ZH: 押注价格会反弹回到那个低点的上方
19:20 - 19:22
EN: They can get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 然后他们的初始仓位可以打平离场
19:22 - 19:23
EN: and with a profit on their second entry.
ZH: 加仓的部分可以赚钱
19:24 - 19:26
EN: Bears will do the opposite.
ZH: 空头的做法正好相反
19:26 - 19:30
EN: They’ll sell above bars, betting that whatever breakout we get,
ZH: 他们会在K线上方卖出做空，押注就算向上突破，
19:30 - 19:35
EN: they can sell more higher and the market
ZH: 他们也可以在更高的位置加仓做空， 因为市场大概率会回调到这个突破点的下方
19:33 - 19:35
EN: will probably come back below their breakout point.
ZH: 他们也可以在更高的位置加仓做空， 因为市场大概率会回调到这个突破点的下方
19:35 - 19:41
EN: And therefore you will have bears selling at the location
ZH: 所以在一部分空头被打到止损离场的时候， 有另一部分空头开始入场做空
19:39 - 19:41
EN: where a lot of bears are exiting with stops.
ZH: 所以在一部分空头被打到止损离场的时候， 有另一部分空头开始入场做空
19:45 - 19:47
EN: Big bull breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，有跟随
19:47 - 19:51
EN: If you were a bear and you sold with a stop above this high
ZH: 如果你在这个、或那个高点上方用限价卖单做空了
19:51 - 19:55
EN: or above that high, you were probably disappointed by this follow-through.
ZH: 看到这么强势的跟随，你会感到失望
19:55 - 19:59
EN: And a lot of the bears who took that sell either will sell more higher
ZH: 很多在这里卖出的空头，要么会逢高加仓，
19:59 - 20:02
EN: and try to get out breakeven, in between their two entry prices,
ZH: 争取在两次入场中间的平均价格打平离场
20:02 - 20:06
EN: or they’ll simply give up – buy back their shorts for a loss,
ZH: 或者他们会直接放弃——买入回补，小亏离场
20:06 - 20:09
EN: and the result is a pair of bull breakout bars.
ZH: 所以形成了这两根大阳线
20:10 - 20:14
EN: This is the bears giving up, and it’s also aggressive bulls buying.
ZH: 空头在放弃，同时多头激进地买入
20:19 - 20:23
EN: Bears buy back their shorts on the first reversal down, at the low of that bar,
ZH: 空头在回调的时候买入回补，比如在那根K线的低点
20:23 - 20:28
EN: betting that it’s probably not going to be a failed bull breakout
ZH: 因为他们知道这大概率不是失败的突破
20:28 - 20:29
EN: and the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 不是下降趋势的开始
20:29 - 20:35
EN: It’s probably going to be a minor reversal, and this is strong enough
ZH: 它大概率只是一次小反转，因为突破足够强势， 所以至少会有小的第2段上涨
20:32 - 20:35
EN: so that we’ll get at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 它大概率只是一次小反转，因为突破足够强势， 所以至少会有小的第2段上涨
20:35 - 20:38
EN: Other bears would exit on a stop.
ZH: 一些空头会用突破买单离场
20:38 - 20:40
EN: We have a bull breakout and a pullback.
ZH: 多头突破，回调
20:40 - 20:42
EN: This is a High 1 buy signal bar.
ZH: 这是高1做多信号K线
20:42 - 20:45
EN: They might buy above the high of that bar.
ZH: 空头在它的高点上方买入回补
20:45 - 20:49
EN: Now we have a High 2, a small Double Bottom – High 1, pullback, High 2
ZH: 现在是高2，小双底——高1，回调，高2
20:49 - 20:51
EN: - and they might buy above the high of that bear bar
ZH: ——空头会在那根阴线的高点上方买入回补
20:51 - 20:56
EN: or the high of this bull bar to take a loss, exit with a loss.
ZH: 或者在这根阳线的上方买入回补，接受亏损
21:01 - 21:03
EN: You know the bulls are always buying.
ZH: 多头总是在买入
21:03 - 21:05
EN: Now we know the bears are buying as well.
ZH: 而现在空头也在买入
21:05 - 21:09
EN: If both the bulls and bears are buying, the odds are we’ll go
ZH: 如果多头和空头都在买入，那么大概率还会至少再上涨一些
21:09 - 21:12
EN: at least a little bit higher, possibly for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 可能会涨到MM目标位
21:14 - 21:17
EN: We twice tried to reverse down and could not get
ZH: 两次尝试反转下跌，但都没有能够回到突破点的下方
21:17 - 21:20
EN: below the breakout point and could not get below this high.
ZH: 没有跌到这个高点的下方
21:20 - 21:23
EN: Therefore, this might be a Measuring Gap for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 所以这可能是测量型缺口，上方有MM目标位
21:28 - 21:31
EN: I began by talking about disappointed bears.
ZH: 这节课的开始，我先讲了失望的空头——
Slide 014
Time: 21:30
Bilingual Transcript
21:31 - 21:33
EN: For example, if the market’s in a strong bear trend
ZH: 例如，如果市场处于强下降趋势
21:33 - 21:40
EN: and bears are selling closes, and then they get a bar
ZH: 空头在每根K线的收盘卖出， 然后他们看到一根令人失望的阳线，可能会导致反转
21:36 - 21:40
EN: that they think is disappointing and could lead to a reversal,
ZH: 空头在每根K线的收盘卖出， 然后他们看到一根令人失望的阳线，可能会导致反转
21:40 - 21:43
EN: they have to make decisions on how to trade.
ZH: 此时空头必须做出决定
21:44 - 21:47
EN: Bears can get trapped at the end of a bear trend,
ZH: 在下降趋势的后期，空头可能会被淘来
21:47 - 21:52
EN: and they have to make decisions on how to either reduce their losses
ZH: 此时他们必须决定如何减少亏损，或者争取小赚离场
21:50 - 21:52
EN: or try to get a small profit.
ZH: 此时他们必须决定如何减少亏损，或者争取小赚离场
21:53 - 21:58
EN: Eventually, traders who are selling closes in a strong bear trend give up.
ZH: 下降趋势后期，一些卖收盘的空头最终放弃
21:58 - 22:01
EN: They have to buy back their shorts because eventually every trend ends
ZH: 他们不得不买入回补，因为每个趋势最终都会结束、反转
22:01 - 22:06
EN: and it reverses, and traders need to know how to read when a trend is ending,
ZH: 交易者需要知道如何判断趋势即将结束
22:06 - 22:11
EN: and they also have to know how to give up and how to reduce their losses.
ZH: 他们需要知道何时需要放弃，以及如何减少亏损
22:15 - 22:16
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
22:16 - 22:18
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
22:18 - 22:23
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 在趋势后期入场的第4节课，就先讲到这里