al-brooks-course
48A - Trading the Open
Raw transcript and slide notes for 48A - Trading the Open.
Overview
- Slides: 20
- Transcript segments: 701
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the first of six videos on trading the open.
ZH: 接下来的6节课，我们来讲早盘
Slide 001
Time: 00:10
Bilingual Transcript
00:12 - 00:15
EN: Many traders think of the day as having three parts.
ZH: 很多交易者把一天分成3个部分
00:16 - 00:21
EN: They’re particularly interested in trading the open – the first hour or two
ZH: 他们尤其对早盘的行情最感兴趣——头一两个小时
00:21 - 00:24
EN: - because that is usually the easiest time to make money.
ZH: 因为那通常是最容易赚钱的时间
00:25 - 00:30
EN: Also, starting around 11:30 or so, 11:00, the final hour or two
ZH: 另外，从11:00左右开始，最后的一两个小时 （注：加州时间11点，纽约时间14点）
00:30 - 00:34
EN: is another great opportunity to make money as well.
ZH: 是另一个赚钱的好机会
00:34 - 00:38
EN: The market often has a trend up or down into the end of the day.
ZH: 市场经常会在收盘前形成一个上涨或下跌的趋势
00:39 - 00:44
EN: The middle session of the day often is sideways and in a Trading Range,
ZH: 而中午的时段通常是在横盘震荡
00:44 - 00:47
EN: and traders tend to be more cautious.
ZH: 交易者往往会比较谨慎
00:48 - 00:51
EN: Because the open of the day is the single best time of the day
ZH: 因为早盘是一天中寻找波段交易机会的最好时间
00:51 - 00:56
EN: to find swing trades, I want to talk about opening reversals.
ZH: 所以我想讲一讲早盘反转
00:56 - 01:00
EN: These are setups on the open that often lead to swing trades.
ZH: 这些早盘的机会经常能形成波段
Slide 002
Time: 01:01
Bilingual Transcript
01:04 - 01:06
EN: For example, we clearly have a swing on the open here
ZH: 例如，显然这一天的早盘有一个波段
01:06 - 01:08
EN: and a swing at the end of the day here.
ZH: 尾盘在这里也有一个波段
01:09 - 01:11
EN: We have a swing up here.
ZH: 这一天的尾盘是上涨波段
01:11 - 01:12
EN: Early Trading Range here.
ZH: 早盘是震荡区间
01:12 - 01:15
EN: The middle of this day was a bear channel.
ZH: 向下跌破，盘中是下降通道
01:16 - 01:20
EN: Here we have a swing on the open and a swing up at the close,
ZH: 这一天的早盘是下跌波段，尾盘上涨
01:20 - 01:23
EN: and most of the day, the middle of the day, was a Trading Range.
ZH: 盘中的大部分时间都在震荡区间里
01:23 - 01:28
EN: Sometimes the middle of the day is only an hour or two.
ZH: 有时盘中的震荡只有一两个小时， 大部分时候是两三个小时
01:26 - 01:28
EN: Usually it’s more like 2 or 3 hours.
ZH: 有时盘中的震荡只有一两个小时， 大部分时候是两三个小时
01:28 - 01:32
EN: A lot of times the market will go one way and then the other way,
ZH: 很多时候，市场先朝一个方向运行，然后反转
01:32 - 01:34
EN: and then back the first way.
ZH: 最后恢复最初的趋势
01:34 - 01:38
EN: So here we have a bear trend, Trading Range, trend resumption.
ZH: 比如，早盘是下降趋势，然后震荡，最后恢复下跌
01:38 - 01:42
EN: Here we have a bull trend, a bear trend, and then trend resumption up.
ZH: 这一天先上涨，然后下跌，最后恢复上涨
01:43 - 01:45
EN: Most days are not that obvious,
ZH: 大部分交易日的行情不是那么明显
01:45 - 01:49
EN: or at least not that obvious when you’re trading them.
ZH: 或者说，至少在你交易的时候不是那么明显
01:49 - 01:52
EN: They become obvious when you print the chart out at the end of the day,
ZH: 在收盘之后回顾K线图，行情才变得明显
01:52 - 01:57
EN: but when you’re trading it real-time,
ZH: 但当你在实时交易的时候，往往很难判断到底发生了什么
01:54 - 01:57
EN: sometimes it’s very difficult to understand what’s going on.
ZH: 但当你在实时交易的时候，往往很难判断到底发生了什么
02:01 - 02:07
EN: A lot of traders focus on trading in the open of the day,
ZH: 很多交易者专注于早盘的交易——头一两个小时， 以及尾盘的交易
02:05 - 02:07
EN: first hour or two, and the end of the day.
ZH: 很多交易者专注于早盘的交易——头一两个小时， 以及尾盘的交易
02:07 - 02:15
EN: What that leaves is the middle of the day, which is less clearly defined
ZH: 这样就导致了当中两三个小时的行情不那么清晰， 比较少出现大的波段
02:12 - 02:15
EN: and less often has big swings.
ZH: 这样就导致了当中两三个小时的行情不那么清晰， 比较少出现大的波段
02:19 - 02:23
EN: Easier to make money in the first or last hour or two every day
ZH: 每天早盘和尾盘的一两个小时更容易赚钱
02:26 - 02:31
EN: because it’s the most common time to have breakouts with follow-through
ZH: 因为在这些时间里，突破和跟随最为常见
02:31 - 02:33
EN: - in other words, swing trades.
ZH: ——也就是波段交易的机会
02:36 - 02:39
EN: I don’t think volume is particularly important.
ZH: 我认为成交量并不是特别重要
02:40 - 02:43
EN: It used to be, 20 years ago, 30 years ago,
ZH: 以前很重要——20、30年前
02:43 - 02:47
EN: when the Emini first started 18 years ago, in the early years of the Emini.
ZH: 1997年，E-mini股指期货刚开始的时候，成交量也许有用 （注：更早以前是很大的S&P期货合约，门槛很高，只有大资金交易）
02:47 - 02:52
EN: But nowadays, at times when you see very small volume, it’s irrelevant.
ZH: 但现在，如果你发现（突破时的）成交量比较小，其实是无所谓的
02:52 - 02:57
EN: Volume is not an indicator of whether or not the market has the ability to trend.
ZH: 成交量不再是判断市场是否有能力形成趋势的指标
02:57 - 03:02
EN: I’ve seen days where the market goes hours in a very Tight Trading Range
ZH: 我见过很多交易日，市场在很窄的区间里运行了几个小时
03:02 - 03:06
EN: with very little volume and then breaks out and goes a long way,
ZH: 成交量非常小，然后突破并形成很大的趋势
03:06 - 03:08
EN: and sometimes the breakout has big volume;
ZH: 有时突破的成交量很大
03:08 - 03:10
EN: other times the breakout has very little volume.
ZH: 有时突破的成交量很小
03:10 - 03:12
EN: I don’t care what the volume is.
ZH: 我不在乎成交量是多少
03:12 - 03:15
EN: I just care about whether or not the market is breaking out.
ZH: 我只关心市场是否正在突破
03:15 - 03:18
EN: If I see this, I don’t care what the volume is.
ZH: 看到这样的价格行为，我就卖出做空，不在乎成交量大不大
03:17 - 03:18
EN: I’m selling.
ZH: 看到这样的价格行为，我就卖出做空，不在乎成交量大不大
03:18 - 03:21
EN: If I see this, I don’t care what the volume is.
ZH: 看到这个，我就买入做多，不在乎成交量大不大
03:20 - 03:21
EN: I’m buying.
ZH: 看到这个，我就买入做多，不在乎成交量大不大
03:24 - 03:27
EN: Because the volume is greater in the beginning of the day
ZH: 因为早盘和尾盘的成交量比较大
03:27 - 03:32
EN: - and especially right before 1:00 Pacific Time; those 10 minutes before 1:00,
ZH: 尤其是收盘之前——收盘前的10分钟 （注：收盘时间为美东时间16点，美西时间13点）
03:33 - 03:38
EN: the volume is very, very big – it means traders
ZH: 此时的成交量非常非常大——因为交易者和机构在更激烈地交易
03:35 - 03:38
EN: and institutions are trading more intensely.
ZH: 此时的成交量非常非常大——因为交易者和机构在更激烈地交易
03:38 - 03:43
EN: I guess it slightly increases the chances
ZH: 这略微增加了出现持续的上涨或下跌波段的概率
03:40 - 03:43
EN: that you’ll get a sustained move up or down.
ZH: 这略微增加了出现持续的上涨或下跌波段的概率
03:44 - 03:48
EN: But I never look at the volume to decide
ZH: 但我从来不根据成交量来决定它是否是一个好的交易机会
03:46 - 03:48
EN: whether or not it’s good enough to trade.
ZH: 但我从来不根据成交量来决定它是否是一个好的交易机会
03:48 - 03:50
EN: I just look at the trends.
ZH: 我只看趋势
03:50 - 03:52
EN: If there are trends, I’m looking to trade.
ZH: 如果有趋势，我就会交易
03:58 - 04:00
EN: Traders like this, they like that.
ZH: 交易者喜欢这种、这种行情
04:01 - 04:04
EN: A lot of times they don’t trade when it’s like this.
ZH: 遇到这种窄区间，他们就不交易了
04:04 - 04:08
EN: Traders become much more interested when the market is moving,
ZH: 市场有波动的时候，人们更有兴趣交易
04:08 - 04:13
EN: and it’s more likely to move in the first hour or two and the final hour or two.
ZH: 而早盘和尾盘的一两个小时通常波动会更大一些
04:17 - 04:21
EN: In the middle of the day, a lot of times the transitions are not all that clear,
ZH: 在盘中的时候，行情往往不那么清晰
04:21 - 04:25
EN: and a lot of times the market goes sideways in a series
ZH: 很多时候市场就一直横盘，有很多两段式的上涨或下跌， 其中还可以细分
04:23 - 04:25
EN: of two-legged moves and a lot of them subdivide.
ZH: 很多时候市场就一直横盘，有很多两段式的上涨或下跌， 其中还可以细分
04:25 - 04:27
EN: So, Leg 1, pullback, two.
ZH: 比如，大的第1段，回调，第2段
04:27 - 04:30
EN: Leg 2 subdivided into one, pullback, two.
ZH: 其中第2段细分成1，回调，2
04:30 - 04:33
EN: Leg 1, pullback, and then two.
ZH: 第1段，反弹，第2段
04:34 - 04:36
EN: Leg 2 subdivided, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 第2段细分成1，反弹，2
04:37 - 04:39
EN: Transitions often not clear.
ZH: 过渡的信号不够明确
04:40 - 04:43
EN: Lots of reversals, lots of sideways price action, overlapping bars.
ZH: 一直来回反转，很多横盘的价格行为，K线都重叠在一起
04:43 - 04:45
EN: A lot of prominent tails.
ZH: 上下影线很长
04:46 - 04:49
EN: A lot of traders trade less in the middle of the day.
ZH: 很多交易者不喜欢在中间的时段交易
04:49 - 04:52
EN: They prefer trading when the market is having good swings,
ZH: 他们更喜欢在有波段的时候交易
04:52 - 04:55
EN: and good swings are more common early and late.
ZH: 而好的波段在早盘和尾盘更为常见
04:59 - 05:04
EN: Because the day often has three parts, there are often two or more transitions,
ZH: 因为一天通常有3个部分， 所以通常至少有两个市场周期变化的信号
05:04 - 05:12
EN: and traders like to trade the transitions because they like to be selling
ZH: 交易者很关注这些信号，因为他们想要在下跌波段中尽早卖出做空 （以赚到更多利润）
05:08 - 05:12
EN: as early as possible on a swing down (more profit potential)
ZH: 交易者很关注这些信号，因为他们想要在下跌波段中尽早卖出做空 （以赚到更多利润）
05:12 - 05:15
EN: and they like to be buying on a swing up (more profit potential).
ZH: 他们也想要在上涨波段中尽早买入（以赚到更多利润）
05:19 - 05:22
EN: If you’re looking for three parts to the day
ZH: 如果你把一天分成3个部分
05:22 - 05:26
EN: and the day is not clearly unfolding in three parts, does not matter.
ZH: 但你发现今天并没有明显的3个部分，不要紧
05:26 - 05:28
EN: You trade what’s in front of you.
ZH: 根据眼前的行情交易就可以了
Slide 003
Time: 05:30
Bilingual Transcript
05:34 - 05:37
EN: A strong trend day often begins right on the open.
ZH: 强趋势日的趋势经常从开盘就开始了
05:37 - 05:40
EN: Not necessarily.
ZH: 并不绝对，有时候是开盘后一两个小时开始
05:38 - 05:40
EN: Sometimes it’ll begin after an hour or two.
ZH: 并不绝对，有时候是开盘后一两个小时开始
05:41 - 05:46
EN: But a strong trend day typically early on begins trading in one direction
ZH: 但一个大趋势日，通常在早盘就朝着一个方向移动
05:46 - 05:49
EN: without ever trading much in the opposite direction.
ZH: 几乎看不到任何反转
05:49 - 05:52
EN: Here’s a strong bull trend and here’s a strong bear trend.
ZH: 比如这个上涨趋势日，还有这个下降趋势日
05:52 - 05:54
EN: Both are right from the open.
ZH: 都是一开盘就进入了趋势
05:54 - 05:59
EN: Therefore, traders want to sell early here and swing if possible,
ZH: 因此，交易者希望在这里尽早做空、尽量持有做波段
05:59 - 06:02
EN: and buy early here and swing if possible.
ZH: 在这里尽早做多、尽量持有做波段
06:06 - 06:08
EN: How often do you see days that look like this or that?
ZH: 这样的交易日出现的频率是多少？
06:08 - 06:09
EN: Not often.
ZH: 不常见
06:09 - 06:15
EN: Maybe 2 or 3 days a month, so about 10% of the time
ZH: 也许每个月有两三天， 也就是大约10%的时候会出现非常非常强势的趋势日
06:13 - 06:15
EN: you get very, very strong trend days.
ZH: 也许每个月有两三天， 也就是大约10%的时候会出现非常非常强势的趋势日
06:15 - 06:19
EN: Most days are not strongly trending one way or the other.
ZH: 大多数交易日并不是一味地上涨或下跌
06:20 - 06:23
EN: A lot of times you’ll get a strong trend for the first couple of hours
ZH: 很多时候早盘的几个小时有强势的趋势，
06:23 - 06:26
EN: and then the market goes mostly sideways for the rest of the day.
ZH: 然后市场一直横盘震荡到收盘
06:29 - 06:34
EN: Most days, 90% of the days, the price action will change.
ZH: 大多数交易日——90%的交易日，价格行为会发生变化
06:34 - 06:43
EN: Instead of staying in a strong trend up or down, it’ll either enter a Trading Range
ZH: 不会一味地强势上涨或下跌，而是会进入震荡区间， 或者进入相反的趋势——也就是反转
06:39 - 06:43
EN: or it’ll begin to trade in the opposite direction.
ZH: 不会一味地强势上涨或下跌，而是会进入震荡区间， 或者进入相反的趋势——也就是反转
06:42 - 06:43
EN: It’ll have a reversal.
ZH: 不会一味地强势上涨或下跌，而是会进入震荡区间， 或者进入相反的趋势——也就是反转
06:45 - 06:48
EN: We traded down, we traded up, we traded sideways.
ZH: 下跌，上涨，横盘
06:51 - 06:54
EN: There are only three things that the market can do:
ZH: 市场只能做3件事：
06:57 - 07:02
EN: it can break out and form a bear trend or a bull trend;
ZH: 强势突破进入上涨或下跌的趋势；
07:05 - 07:12
EN: it can channel – we have a channel up here – or it can be in a Trading Range.
ZH: 在通道中运行——这里是一个上涨通道； 还有就是震荡区间
07:12 - 07:14
EN: Here we have a bear breakout that failed.
ZH: 开盘向下跌破，失败了
07:14 - 07:16
EN: We have a bull breakout with a second leg up.
ZH: 反转上涨，有第2段上涨
07:16 - 07:17
EN: It became a bull channel.
ZH: 变成了上涨通道
07:17 - 07:20
EN: So, you either have a breakout down or up
ZH: 所以，要么是向上或向下的突破，
07:20 - 07:24
EN: or a channel down or up or a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么是上涨或下跌的通道，要么是震荡区间
07:24 - 07:29
EN: Those are the only three things that the market can do,
ZH: 市场只会做这3件事，你根据不同的方法去交易它们
07:27 - 07:29
EN: and you trade each of them differently.
ZH: 市场只会做这3件事，你根据不同的方法去交易它们
07:33 - 07:38
EN: 90% of days do not trend relentlessly one way or the other.
ZH: 90%的交易日不会无情地一味上涨或下跌
07:39 - 07:43
EN: That means 90% of the days have at least two types of price action
ZH: 也就是说，90%的交易日至少有两种价格行为
07:43 - 07:46
EN: - either a breakout, a channel, or a Trading Range.
ZH: ——要么是突破，要么是通道，要么是震荡区间
07:47 - 07:51
EN: Traders are constantly looking for a transition from one type to the other.
ZH: 交易者不断地寻找市场周期变换的信号
07:57 - 08:04
EN: When the market changes from a breakout to a channel or from a channel
ZH: 当市场从突破变成通道，或从通道变成震荡区间， 或从震荡区间变成突破
08:00 - 08:04
EN: to a Trading Range or from a Trading Range to a breakout,
ZH: 当市场从突破变成通道，或从通道变成震荡区间， 或从震荡区间变成突破
08:04 - 08:06
EN: traders have to change how they’re trading
ZH: 交易者必须相应地调整交易策略
08:06 - 08:09
EN: because that’s how they maximize their profit potential.
ZH: 那样才能实现利润最大化
08:09 - 08:12
EN: They have to trade what the market is currently doing,
ZH: 必须根据市场当下的行为来交易
08:12 - 08:14
EN: not what it was doing a few bars ago.
ZH: 而不是前几根K线之前的行为 （注：偶尔，1根K线可以改变很多事情）
Slide 004
Time: 08:20
Bilingual Transcript
08:21 - 08:25
EN: I mentioned that most days do not clearly have three parts to the day.
ZH: 刚才提到，有些交易日其实并没有明确的分成3个部分
08:25 - 08:29
EN: A lot of times when you print them out at the end of the day,
ZH: 大部分交易日，在收盘之后回顾当天整体的行情， 你会发现有3个部分
08:27 - 08:29
EN: you’ll see the three parts.
ZH: 大部分交易日，在收盘之后回顾当天整体的行情， 你会发现有3个部分
08:29 - 08:30
EN: But this is how traders think.
ZH: 这是很多交易者的思维方式
08:30 - 08:34
EN: They look for a trade on the open, they look for a trade at the end of the day,
ZH: 他们在早盘和尾盘寻找（波段）交易机会
08:34 - 08:37
EN: and then they trade the middle of the day however it appears to be.
ZH: 盘中的时候根据当下的价格行为交易
08:37 - 08:40
EN: A Trading Range, they’ll trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，就按照震荡的方式做
08:40 - 08:42
EN: A trend, they’ll trade it like a trend.
ZH: 如果是趋势，就按照趋势来交易
08:47 - 08:50
EN: Most days are not strong trends.
ZH: 大部分交易日不是强趋势日
08:50 - 08:56
EN: Most change their character, and they have some combination
ZH: 日内的价格行为都会发生变化， 是突破、通道和震荡区间的组合
08:54 - 08:56
EN: of breakout, channel, and Trading Range.
ZH: 日内的价格行为都会发生变化， 是突破、通道和震荡区间的组合
09:01 - 09:05
EN: When there are three parts to the day, they do not divide evenly.
ZH: 如果某个交易日确实分成了3个部分，它们也不是平均分配的
09:05 - 09:07
EN: 81 bars in the day.
ZH: 日内一共有81根5分钟K线 （注：美东时间9:30到16:15，16点以后的15分钟其实不太重要）
09:07 - 09:12
EN: It’s not as if a third of them, 27 of them, are the first part
ZH: 并不是说前面三分之一，即前面27根K线，就是早盘
09:12 - 09:16
EN: and 27 more are the middle part and 27 more are the third part.
ZH: 然后盘中27根K线，尾盘27根K线
09:16 - 09:20
EN: Sometimes one or more of the three parts can be very small.
ZH: 有时三个部分的其中一个或多个可以非常小
09:20 - 09:22
EN: Sometimes one or more can be very big.
ZH: 有时一个部分可以非常大
09:24 - 09:31
EN: For example, here the middle third of the day is not the middle third
ZH: 例如，这一天的盘中部分，在K线数量上并不是正好三分之一
09:29 - 09:31
EN: in terms of the number of bars.
ZH: 例如，这一天的盘中部分，在K线数量上并不是正好三分之一
09:31 - 09:36
EN: We were in a Trading Range and then it transitioned
ZH: 早盘是震荡区间，然后变成下降通道，尾盘向上突破
09:34 - 09:36
EN: into a bear channel and then a bull breakout.
ZH: 早盘是震荡区间，然后变成下降通道，尾盘向上突破
09:36 - 09:39
EN: Mostly a breakout.
ZH: 几乎和突破一样——非常窄的上涨通道
09:37 - 09:39
EN: Very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 几乎和突破一样——非常窄的上涨通道
09:39 - 09:45
EN: The second of the three types of trading lasted a lot longer
ZH: 盘中部分持续的时间比早盘和尾盘更长
09:43 - 09:45
EN: than the first or third.
ZH: 盘中部分持续的时间比早盘和尾盘更长
09:51 - 09:55
EN: I’m always paying attention to whether or not I think the market’s in a breakout,
ZH: 我总是关注市场周期：是否处于突破阶段，
09:55 - 09:59
EN: or a channel, or a Trading Range because I trade the three of them differently,
ZH: 还是通道阶段，还是震荡阶段， 因为我需要按照不同的方式去交易它们
09:59 - 10:03
EN: and it’s good to recognize each of the three as early as possible.
ZH: 尽早识别出这三种市场周期是很有帮助的
10:06 - 10:08
EN: Some days have only one type of trading.
ZH: 有的交易日只有一种市场周期
10:08 - 10:11
EN: When that happens, if there’s only going to be one type,
ZH: 如果发生那种情况——只有一种市场周期
10:11 - 10:13
EN: it’s most commonly a Trading Range.
ZH: 最常见的就是震荡区间
10:14 - 10:18
EN: You’ll virtually never see a breakout that lasts all day.
ZH: 你几乎不会看到持续一整天的突破 （注：指连续的大阳线、大阴线持续一整天）
10:18 - 10:21
EN: It’ll usually transition at least into a Tight Channel.
ZH: 至少会进入窄通道
10:21 - 10:26
EN: Channels can last all day, Broad Channels or Tight Channels,
ZH: 通道可以持续一整天，宽通道或窄通道
10:26 - 10:29
EN: but Trading Range days commonly last all day.
ZH: 而震荡区间经常可以持续一整天
10:33 - 10:35
EN: Some days have lots of transitions.
ZH: 有的交易日市场周期不断地变化
10:35 - 10:39
EN: Instead of just three parts, they can have five parts, six parts.
ZH: 不是只有3个部分，而是有5个、6个部分
10:39 - 10:44
EN: For example, Trading Range, Tight Channel, bull channel, bear channel,
ZH: 例如，震荡区间，窄通道，上涨通道，下降通道
10:44 - 10:47
EN: bear channel here, bull channel here, breakout here.
ZH: 下降通道，上涨通道，突破
10:47 - 10:50
EN: You simply trade what’s in front of you.
ZH: 只需根据眼前的价格行为交易
10:54 - 10:59
EN: It’s very often that the past few bars look one way, like a breakout,
ZH: 你经常会发现，过去几根K线看起来像是某种行情，比如突破
10:59 - 11:05
EN: and once you see more bars you discover that they’re part of something bigger,
ZH: 但几根K线之后，你发现它们原来属于更大结构中的一部分， 比如属于震荡区间或通道（注：这句话非常重要）
11:03 - 11:05
EN: like a Trading Range or a channel.
ZH: 但几根K线之后，你发现它们原来属于更大结构中的一部分， 比如属于震荡区间或通道（注：这句话非常重要）
11:07 - 11:11
EN: We have a very Tight Bear Channel, but it became a leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 早盘是非常窄的下降通道，但它变成了震荡区间中的一段下跌
11:11 - 11:14
EN: We have a very Tight Trading Range within a bigger Trading Range
ZH: 这个窄震荡区间的外面有一个更大的区间
11:14 - 11:16
EN: and within a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 或者说属于这个宽下降通道的一部分
11:16 - 11:19
EN: Strong bear breakout, very deep pullback.
ZH: 强势的空头突破，非常大福的反弹
11:19 - 11:22
EN: It’s a Trading Range and it’s a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 所以它是震荡区间、是宽下降通道
Slide 005
Time: 11:25
Bilingual Transcript
11:26 - 11:28
EN: Is the open just the first bar?
ZH: 早盘指的是第1根K线吗？
11:28 - 11:29
EN: Is it the first hour?
ZH: 还是第1个小时？
11:29 - 11:31
EN: Is it the first two hours?
ZH: 还是前两个小时？
11:31 - 11:33
EN: It differs on every day.
ZH: 其实每一天都不同
11:36 - 11:40
EN: You’re looking for the time before there is a swing.
ZH: 在形成波段之前，开盘通常会先震荡一会儿
11:40 - 11:42
EN: That is the opening range.
ZH: 我称之为开盘区间
11:42 - 11:44
EN: Some days there is no opening range.
ZH: 有的交易日没有开盘区间
11:44 - 11:46
EN: It just simply rallies on the open.
ZH: 一开盘就直接上涨
11:46 - 11:48
EN: You could call this whole thing the opening range,
ZH: 所以这不是开盘区间
11:48 - 11:51
EN: but I would call this more a trend from the open bull trend.
ZH: 而是一开盘就形成的上涨趋势
11:54 - 11:57
EN: To me, this is not an opening range type day.
ZH: 这不是开盘先震荡，然后选择方向突破的交易日
11:57 - 12:02
EN: It’s a trend from the open bull trend and a Parabolic Wedge
ZH: 而是一开盘就形成的上涨趋势，然后抛物线楔形反转， 当天的最高点很早就出现了
12:00 - 12:02
EN: that reversed and formed an early high of the day.
ZH: 而是一开盘就形成的上涨趋势，然后抛物线楔形反转， 当天的最高点很早就出现了
12:05 - 12:08
EN: Here, the opening range may’ve been right here.
ZH: 这一天有一个小的开盘区间
12:08 - 12:11
EN: Maybe you’ll say it’s the first 10 or 15 bars right here.
ZH: 前十几根K线，确定了早盘的震荡范围
12:13 - 12:18
EN: Here, a limit order open, a Trading Range open for a couple of hours.
ZH: 这一天，早盘是限价单市场，震荡区间持续了两个小时
12:19 - 12:22
EN: The bulls bought the reversal up, they sold the reversal down.
ZH: （注：这么窄的区间几乎不可能持续一整天，所以一定有突破的波段机会） 在反转上涨时买入，反转下跌时卖出
12:24 - 12:28
EN: Here on the open, the market simply went sideways for several hours.
ZH: 这一天的开盘，市场横盘震荡了几个小时
12:29 - 12:34
EN: Traders looked to trade reversals, buying failed breakouts below the bottom,
ZH: 交易者寻找反转的交易机会： 跌破下沿失败后做多，低点抬高做多
12:33 - 12:37
EN: buying Higher Lows, selling Double Tops and reversals down.
ZH: 交易者寻找反转的交易机会： 跌破下沿失败后做多，低点抬高做多 双顶做空，反转下跌做空
12:41 - 12:45
EN: Here we have a gap up and a Double Bottom – this low and this low.
ZH: 这一天跳空高开，然后形成双底——这个低点和这个低点
12:46 - 12:49
EN: The bulls got a small rally, but it did not last long.
ZH: 多头制造了上涨波段，但没有持续很久
12:49 - 12:52
EN: But to me this would be the opening range on this day.
ZH: 在我看来，这就是开盘区间的范围
12:55 - 12:58
EN: Is the opening range just this first cluster of bars,
ZH: 这天开盘区间的范围，就这几根K线吗？
12:58 - 13:00
EN: or is it all the way down here?
ZH: 还是一直到这里？
13:00 - 13:06
EN: I would call this the opening range and this a swing down
ZH: 我认为这是开盘区间，然后向下跌破形成下降趋势， 但其实没有特别严格的规定
13:03 - 13:06
EN: from the opening range, but it does not matter.
ZH: 我认为这是开盘区间，然后向下跌破形成下降趋势， 但其实没有特别严格的规定
13:06 - 13:08
EN: Same with all of these.
ZH: 这些交易日也是一样
13:08 - 13:11
EN: No opening range, small opening range.
ZH: 没有开盘区间，开盘区间很小
13:11 - 13:13
EN: Here’s the first trade of the day.
ZH: 这是当天的第一个波段
13:14 - 13:21
EN: Once the first swing up or down ends, then traders conclude
ZH: 一旦第一个上涨或下跌的波段结束， 交易者就认为一天的早盘结束了
13:19 - 13:21
EN: that that first third of the day has ended.
ZH: 一旦第一个上涨或下跌的波段结束， 交易者就认为一天的早盘结束了
13:28 - 13:33
EN: Here we have an opening range, a Trading Range, and it continued all day.
ZH: 这一天的开盘是震荡区间，然后一直持续了很久
13:33 - 13:37
EN: This is the opening range, and then the day became a Trading Range day.
ZH: 这是开盘区间的范围，然后价格一直在这个范围内横盘
13:42 - 13:47
EN: On a day like this, you’re not really clear when the open actually ended.
ZH: 遇到这种情况，你很难判断早盘到底什么时候结束
13:48 - 13:49
EN: Did it end here?
ZH: 在这里结束了吗？
13:49 - 13:50
EN: Did it end here?
ZH: 在这里结束了吗？
13:50 - 13:54
EN: I don’t think it matters because the market’s in an early Trading Range
ZH: 这并不是关键，因为开盘有震荡区间的特征
13:54 - 13:59
EN: and it continued in a Trading Range, and traders will keep trading it
ZH: 并且价格持续震荡，所以交易者就按照震荡区间来交易
13:57 - 14:02
EN: as if it’s in a Trading Range until there’s a clear
ZH: 并且价格持续震荡，所以交易者就按照震荡区间来交易 直到价格向上或向下强势突破
14:00 - 14:02
EN: and strong breakout one way or the other.
ZH: 直到价格向上或向下强势突破
14:07 - 14:12
EN: Most days have at least a small early Trading Range
ZH: 大部分交易日在开盘之后，至少有一个小的震荡区间， 然后再形成上涨或下跌的波段
14:10 - 14:12
EN: before there’s a swing up or down.
ZH: 大部分交易日在开盘之后，至少有一个小的震荡区间， 然后再形成上涨或下跌的波段
14:12 - 14:14
EN: This is unusual.
ZH: 这种情况很少见
14:14 - 14:19
EN: Maybe 20% of the days, the first bar is the low or high of the day
ZH: 只有不到20%的交易日，在第1根K线就形成了当天的最高或最低点
14:19 - 14:21
EN: - a trend from the open bull trend.
ZH: ——比如一开盘就进入上涨趋势
14:30 - 14:32
EN: Next, I want to talk about opening reversals.
ZH: 接下来，我想讲一讲早盘反转
Slide 006
Time: 14:30
Bilingual Transcript
14:33 - 14:38
EN: In the first hour or two, sometimes in the very first minute of the day,
ZH: 在早盘的头一两个小时经常会有波段，有时甚至从第1分钟就开始了
14:37 - 14:43
EN: the market begins a swing trade, and there are setups that often tell traders
ZH: 在早盘的头一两个小时经常会有波段，有时甚至从第1分钟就开始了 交易者可以从一些固定的结构和信号中发现波段交易的机会
14:42 - 14:43
EN: that a swing trade is about to begin.
ZH: 交易者可以从一些固定的结构和信号中发现波段交易的机会
Slide 007
Time: 14:45
Bilingual Transcript
14:48 - 14:52
EN: Most days on the open have some kind of breakout before too long.
ZH: 大多数交易日在开盘后不久都会尝试突破
14:52 - 14:54
EN: Sometimes it’s right on the open.
ZH: 有时一开盘就突破了
14:54 - 14:57
EN: I’m going to talk about those on this particular slide.
ZH: 在这页课件中我会详细讲解这一点
14:57 - 15:03
EN: As you can see, we have a gap above the moving average
ZH: 这一天，大幅跳空高开，价格在均线之上，强势上涨了3根K线 （注：本课程中，如果没有特别标注，则均线指EMA20）
15:01 - 15:03
EN: and we rallied strongly for 3 bars.
ZH: 这一天，大幅跳空高开，价格在均线之上，强势上涨了3根K线 （注：本课程中，如果没有特别标注，则均线指EMA20）
15:03 - 15:13
EN: No matter how strong a breakout on the open is, there’s an 80% chance
ZH: 无论开盘时的突破有多强势， 80%的概率至少会有小反转——即相反方向的小波段
15:08 - 15:13
EN: that there will be at least a minor reversal – in other words,
ZH: 无论开盘时的突破有多强势， 80%的概率至少会有小反转——即相反方向的小波段
15:11 - 15:20
EN: a leg in the opposite direction – and a 50% chance there’ll be a major reversal
ZH: 无论开盘时的突破有多强势， 80%的概率至少会有小反转——即相反方向的小波段 50%的概率会有大反转——即相反方向的趋势
15:17 - 15:20
EN: - in other words, a trend in the opposite direction,
ZH: 50%的概率会有大反转——即相反方向的趋势
15:20 - 15:22
EN: 20 bars or so, a couple hours or so.
ZH: 持续20根K线、两个小时左右
15:24 - 15:26
EN: Here we have 3 consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
ZH: 这里有连续3根阳线收在高位
15:26 - 15:28
EN: We have a Micro Double Top here.
ZH: 然后形成了一个小双顶
15:28 - 15:29
EN: Good for the bears.
ZH: 这是空头想看见的
15:29 - 15:31
EN: We have a bear body here.
ZH: 而且有一根阴线
15:31 - 15:36
EN: The market sold off for about 10 bars, but then the bull trend resumed.
ZH: 市场下跌了大约10根K线，但最终上涨趋势恢复
15:36 - 15:43
EN: If we sell off for about 10 bars, even though it’s a couple legs,
ZH: 尽管有两三段下跌，但持续时间只有10根K线或更少， 所以它仍然只是小反转
15:40 - 15:43
EN: 10 bars or less, I would call that a minor reversal.
ZH: 尽管有两三段下跌，但持续时间只有10根K线或更少， 所以它仍然只是小反转
15:43 - 15:45
EN: In this case it was a bull flag.
ZH: 或者说它是上涨趋势中的牛旗
15:45 - 15:51
EN: It formed a Double Bottom with the earlier low at support, the Moving Average.
ZH: 它在均线获得了支撑，并且和开盘的低点形成了双底
15:51 - 15:54
EN: That is a minor reversal down.
ZH: 这段下跌是小反转
15:54 - 15:56
EN: Double Bottom bull flag after a big gap up.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开之后的双底牛旗
15:56 - 16:00
EN: Traders will look to buy above bull bars closing near their highs,
ZH: 如果有阳线收在高位，多头会在它的上方买入， 坚定持有做波段交易
15:59 - 16:00
EN: hoping for a swing up.
ZH: 如果有阳线收在高位，多头会在它的上方买入， 坚定持有做波段交易
16:00 - 16:06
EN: Remember, a swing up typically lasts at least 20 bars, maybe a couple hours,
ZH: 一个上涨波段通常持续至少20根K线，也就是两个小时，
16:06 - 16:11
EN: and has at least two or more legs, and this subdivided into several small legs.
ZH: 并且至少有两段上涨，其中还能细分成更小的几段上涨
16:14 - 16:18
EN: When the market is going down – here we have a strong selloff on the open;
ZH: 如果市场下跌——这一天开盘之后，市场剧烈抛售
16:18 - 16:21
EN: we have 6 consecutive bear bars, several closing on their lows
ZH: 连续6根阴线，其中有几根收在最低
16:21 - 16:30
EN: - no matter how strong the selloff is, there’s an 80% chance
ZH: 无论下跌有多么强势，80%的概率至少会有小的反弹， 持续至少5根K线
16:26 - 16:30
EN: that there will be at least a minor reversal up lasting at least 5 bars.
ZH: 无论下跌有多么强势，80%的概率至少会有小的反弹， 持续至少5根K线
16:30 - 16:32
EN: Typically 5 to 10 bars.
ZH: 通常是5到10根K线
16:32 - 16:34
EN: Here it was mostly sideways.
ZH: 这里主要是横盘
16:36 - 16:40
EN: There were three or more legs up – bull bar, bear bar, so first leg, bull bar,
ZH: 这里至少有3段反弹——阳线，阴线，这是第1段；
16:40 - 16:43
EN: bear bar, second leg, third leg, fourth leg
ZH: 阳线，阴线，第2段；第3段；第4段
16:43 - 16:46
EN: - and then the bears got a bar closing near its low.
ZH: 然后空头制造了一根收在最低的阴线
16:46 - 16:49
EN: So it was a Wedge bear flag, a minor reversal up,
ZH: 所以它是楔形熊旗，只是小反弹
16:50 - 16:54
EN: a pause in what ended up being a bear trend.
ZH: 只是下降趋势中的一次暂停
16:54 - 16:57
EN: Again, no matter how strong a selloff there is,
ZH: 再讲一遍，不管开盘的下跌有多么强势
16:57 - 17:01
EN: 80% of the time you’re going to get a minor reversal up on the open.
ZH: 80%的时间至少会有一些小反弹
17:01 - 17:06
EN: Typically the first 90 minutes, usually after 5 or 6 bars.
ZH: 在早盘的前90分钟里，通常在五六根K线之后
17:11 - 17:14
EN: 50% of the time when there’s a strong move on the open,
ZH: 如果出现了强势的突破，
17:14 - 17:18
EN: you do not get simply a minor reversal; you get a major reversal, a swing.
ZH: 50%的概率并不仅仅有小反转，而是会有大反转——波段的机会
17:18 - 17:21
EN: So here we have 3 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 比如这一天，连续3根阳线
17:21 - 17:24
EN: and then the market fell in a Spike and Channel bear trend.
ZH: 然后市场进入急速变通道的下降趋势
17:24 - 17:27
EN: Spike, pullback, channel, Double Top bear flag, channel.
ZH: 急速下跌、反弹、进入通道；双顶熊旗，通道
17:27 - 17:29
EN: Three pushes here – one two, three.
ZH: 3次向下的推动——1，2，3
17:29 - 17:34
EN: But a swing down, lasting 20 bars, couple hours, having at least two legs.
ZH: 它是一个下跌波段，持续20根K线，两个小时，好几段下跌
17:35 - 17:39
EN: And that is despite having a very strong breakout on the open.
ZH: 尽管开盘时有非常强势的突破
17:39 - 17:43
EN: 50% of the time, no matter how strong the breakout is,
ZH: 但50%的时间，无论突破有多么强势
17:43 - 17:46
EN: you’re going to get a reversal into an opposite trend.
ZH: 市场会反转进入相反的趋势
17:46 - 17:49
EN: 80% of the time, no matter how strong the breakout is,
ZH: 80%的时间，无论突破有多强势
17:49 - 17:53
EN: you’ll get at least a minor reversal down, 5 or 10 bars.
ZH: 至少会有一些小反转，持续5或10根K线
17:54 - 17:59
EN: Here’s another example of a very strong opening down for the bears,
ZH: 这是另一个开盘就暴跌的案例
17:59 - 18:03
EN: yet 50% of the time you’re going to get a major reversal.
ZH: 但50%的时间会出现大反转
18:03 - 18:07
EN: After these 4 bear bars, the market trended up for the remainder of the day.
ZH: 开盘下跌了4根K线，然后剩下的时间全都在上涨
18:07 - 18:10
EN: Not a particularly strong bull trend; however,
ZH: 不是一个特别强的上涨趋势
18:10 - 18:14
EN: as strong as this selloff was, the bulls got a major reversal.
ZH: 不过，就算开盘的下跌那么强势，多头仍然制造了大反转
18:14 - 18:18
EN: A major reversal means a reversal from a bear trend to a bull trend.
ZH: 大反转的意思是，市场从下降趋势被反转，成为上涨趋势
18:18 - 18:22
EN: Here, a major reversal down from a bull trend to a bear trend.
ZH: 这一天，上涨趋势被反转，成为下降趋势
18:22 - 18:26
EN: A minor reversal is either a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 小反转要么是震荡区间，要么是旗形
18:26 - 18:28
EN: So strong bull trend.
ZH: 强上涨趋势
18:28 - 18:31
EN: We sold off and it became a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 下跌，形成双底牛旗
18:31 - 18:37
EN: Here, a strong selloff, we rallied for about 6 or 7 bars
ZH: 这里，开盘强势下跌，反弹了六七根K线——它变成了熊旗
18:35 - 18:37
EN: - it became a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 这里，开盘强势下跌，反弹了六七根K线——它变成了熊旗
18:39 - 18:41
EN: When you get the reversal,
ZH: 看到反转的机会时
18:41 - 18:43
EN: you look to buy above bull bars closing near their highs.
ZH: 多头在收在最高的阳线上方用突破单买入
18:43 - 18:49
EN: On this reversal down, you’re going to be looking
ZH: 在反转下跌时，空头等待收在最低的阴线， 然后在它们的下方用突破单卖出做空
18:46 - 18:49
EN: to sell below bear bars closing near their lows.
ZH: 在反转下跌时，空头等待收在最低的阴线， 然后在它们的下方用突破单卖出做空
18:53 - 18:56
EN: Sometimes you get a big gap down on the open.
ZH: 有时候会大幅跳空低开
Slide 008
Time: 18:55
Bilingual Transcript
18:56 - 18:57
EN: You can see the Moving Average.
ZH: 可以看到，均线是向下的
18:57 - 18:59
EN: The market gapped far below on all of these charts.
ZH: 这些都是大幅跳空低开的案例
19:00 - 19:03
EN: These are four things that you commonly see.
ZH: 这些是最常见的四种情况
19:03 - 19:11
EN: Remember, 80% of the time you’re going to get a minor reversal
ZH: 就算最终趋势恢复，但80%的时间至少会有小反转， 持续5到10根K线
19:06 - 19:11
EN: lasting 5 or 10 bars even if the day ends up trending.
ZH: 就算最终趋势恢复，但80%的时间至少会有小反转， 持续5到10根K线
19:12 - 19:14
EN: Here we have a big gap down, we sold off,
ZH: 这一天大幅跳空低开，并继续下跌
19:14 - 19:17
EN: and we rallied reasonably strongly – but look what happened.
ZH: 然后有较为强势的反弹——看看发生了什么
19:17 - 19:21
EN: We tested the prior high, the opening high, and we’re at the Moving Average.
ZH: 测试了前期的高点，开盘的高点，并且回归到了均线
19:21 - 19:24
EN: So it’s a slightly higher high Double Top.
ZH: 形成了高点略微抬高的双顶
19:24 - 19:25
EN: You’re in a bear trend.
ZH: 目前市场处于下降趋势
19:25 - 19:28
EN: We gapped down, so it’s a Double Top bear flag at the Moving Average.
ZH: 跳空低开，在均线形成了双顶熊旗
19:28 - 19:30
EN: A Micro Double Top – one and two.
ZH: 还有小双顶——1，2
19:30 - 19:31
EN: You can call it a Wedge.
ZH: 也可以说它是楔形顶
19:31 - 19:35
EN: Three pushes up – one, pause, two, pause, three.
ZH: 3次向上的推动——1，2，3
19:35 - 19:38
EN: Traders will sell below bear bars closing near their lows.
ZH: 空头看到阴线收在最低，会在它的下方卖出做空
19:46 - 19:48
EN: And this is something else that you can get.
ZH: 然后是另一种情况
19:48 - 19:51
EN: You can get three legs up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 可能有3段反弹——1，回调；2，回调；3
19:53 - 19:55
EN: A minor reversal became a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 小反弹形成了楔形熊旗
19:55 - 19:57
EN: Remember, we’re far below the Moving Average.
ZH: 由于价格远低于均线
19:57 - 20:00
EN: We have a big gap down, so we have a trend on the open.
ZH: 大幅跳空低开，所以这是下降趋势
20:00 - 20:09
EN: The gap down is a trend, and we have a pretty good minor reversal lasting
ZH: 跳空低开是下降趋势，然后有非常不错的反弹， 持续了十几根K线，但涨势在均线停滞了
20:05 - 20:09
EN: maybe 10 or 15 bars, yet it stalled at the Moving Average
ZH: 跳空低开是下降趋势，然后有非常不错的反弹， 持续了十几根K线，但涨势在均线停滞了
20:09 - 20:14
EN: and it became a Wedge bear flag leading to a swing down, 20 bars or so.
ZH: 然后变成了楔形熊旗，又继续下跌了大约20根K线
20:15 - 20:17
EN: When you have a big gap down,
ZH: 当市场大幅跳空低开的时候，
20:17 - 20:21
EN: you can get a Double Top or a Wedge Top and then a swing down.
ZH: 可能会反弹形成双顶或楔形顶，然后恢复下降趋势
20:23 - 20:25
EN: You sell below bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 看到阴线收在最低，用突破单卖出做空
20:26 - 20:33
EN: However, instead of a swing down, you can get a big gap down,
ZH: 然而，有时候大幅跳空低开，比如这一天和这一天
20:30 - 20:33
EN: big gap down, just like here and here.
ZH: 然而，有时候大幅跳空低开，比如这一天和这一天
20:33 - 20:36
EN: Instead of a trend down, the selloff failed.
ZH: 下降趋势没有继续，空头失败了
20:36 - 20:38
EN: It reversed up from a Double Bottom.
ZH: 而是形成双底之后反转上涨
20:38 - 20:40
EN: Here, a slightly lower low Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里是低点略微降低的双底
20:40 - 20:44
EN: Traders will buy above bull bars closing on or near their highs, here or here.
ZH: 多头看到有阳线收在高位，会买入做多，比如这里和这里
20:47 - 20:50
EN: Sell climax, and it became a Lower Low Double Bottom.
ZH: 抛售高潮，变成低点降低的双底
20:51 - 20:53
EN: Bulls will buy the reversal up.
ZH: 多头会在反转上涨时买入
20:56 - 21:04
EN: You can get a Double Top, you can get a Double Bottom.
ZH: 跳空低开之后，可能会出现双顶或双底， 也可能会出现楔形顶或楔形底
20:59 - 21:04
EN: You can get a Wedge Top, you can get a Wedge Bottom when you have a big gap down.
ZH: 跳空低开之后，可能会出现双顶或双底， 也可能会出现楔形顶或楔形底
21:04 - 21:10
EN: Here we have three reversals up – one, selloff,
ZH: 这里有3次反转上涨的尝试—— 1，下跌；2，下跌；现在是第3次反转上涨
21:08 - 21:10
EN: two, selloff, and now a third reversal up.
ZH: 这里有3次反转上涨的尝试—— 1，下跌；2，下跌；现在是第3次反转上涨
21:10 - 21:12
EN: Also a Micro Double Bottom – one, two.
ZH: 同时也有一个小双底——1，2
21:12 - 21:16
EN: Also a Wedge, nested Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 而且也是嵌套式楔形——1，2，3
21:16 - 21:18
EN: - inside of a bigger Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 嵌套在更大的楔形内部——1，2，3
21:18 - 21:21
EN: Bulls will buy above bull bars closing near their highs.
ZH: 多头会在强势阳线的上方买入做多
21:24 - 21:26
EN: That’s what you should be ready for.
ZH: 你要为这样的机会做好准备
21:26 - 21:30
EN: 80% of days will have something like this if you have a big gap down.
ZH: 大幅跳空低开的交易日里，80%的时候都是这几种情况
21:30 - 21:34
EN: You’ll have a Double Top or a Wedge Top and a resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 反弹形成双顶或楔形顶，然后恢复下降趋势
21:34 - 21:39
EN: or you’ll get a Double Bottom or a Wedge Bottom
ZH: 或者形成双底或楔形顶，然后反转进入上涨趋势
21:37 - 21:39
EN: and a reversal up into a bull trend.
ZH: 或者形成双底或楔形顶，然后反转进入上涨趋势
21:39 - 21:45
EN: Only 20% of the time do you get a strong trend on the open that lasts all day,
ZH: 只有20%的时间，开盘的强趋势能持续一整天
21:45 - 21:52
EN: so only 20% of the time you’ll get a selloff and it just keeps going down,
ZH: 只有20%的交易日，开盘下跌，并持续不断地下跌、下跌； 或者开盘上涨，然后持续不断地上涨、上涨
21:48 - 21:52
EN: down, down, or you’ll get a rally and it keeps going up, up, up.
ZH: 只有20%的交易日，开盘下跌，并持续不断地下跌、下跌； 或者开盘上涨，然后持续不断地上涨、上涨
21:53 - 22:01
EN: 80% of the days when you have a big gap, you’re going to get either a double top,
ZH: 大幅跳空的交易日，80%的时候会先形成双顶、双底， 或楔形顶、楔形底
21:58 - 22:01
EN: Double Bottom, a Wedge Top, or a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 大幅跳空的交易日，80%的时候会先形成双顶、双底， 或楔形顶、楔形底
22:01 - 22:03
EN: In fact, even when there’s no gap at all,
ZH: 事实上，就算没有任何跳空
22:03 - 22:07
EN: 80% of the time you’re going to get one of these four patterns.
ZH: 80%的交易日里，早盘也都是这4种模式
22:08 - 22:12
EN: The opposite’s true when you have a gap up.
ZH: 跳空高开的时候也是一样
Slide 009
Time: 22:09
Bilingual Transcript
22:12 - 22:19
EN: Bulls are looking for a Double Bottom or a Wedge Bottom and a resumption
ZH: 多头看到双底或楔形底，希望趋势能恢复上涨； 或者，如果认为会反转下跌，
22:16 - 22:19
EN: of the bull trend, or they’re looking for a reversal.
ZH: 多头看到双底或楔形底，希望趋势能恢复上涨； 或者，如果认为会反转下跌，
22:19 - 22:23
EN: They’re looking for a Double Top or a small Wedge Top.
ZH: 交易者就会等待形成双顶或楔形顶
22:25 - 22:27
EN: We have a big gap up.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开
22:27 - 22:29
EN: All four of these charts have a big gap up.
ZH: 这4张图都是跳空高开的案例
22:29 - 22:31
EN: You can see the Moving Average.
ZH: 价格都在均线上方
22:31 - 22:34
EN: Here we sold off for about 10 bars,
ZH: 这里下跌了大约10根K线
22:34 - 22:37
EN: and instead of a trend reversal down, we have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 但趋势没有反转下跌，而是形成了双底
22:37 - 22:40
EN: Bulls will buy above bull bars closing near their highs.
ZH: 多头会在收在高位的阳线上方买入
22:46 - 22:49
EN: Here, we reversed up, reversed up a second time.
ZH: 尝试上涨，第2次尝试上涨
22:49 - 22:50
EN: Now we’re at the Moving Average.
ZH: 现在回调到了均线
22:50 - 22:52
EN: We’re reversing up a third time.
ZH: 第3次尝试上涨
22:52 - 22:55
EN: So instead of a Double Bottom, the bulls have a Wedge Bottom,
ZH: 所以这一天不是双底，而是楔形底
22:55 - 22:59
EN: and again they will buy above a bull bar closing near its high.
ZH: 同样，多头在收在高位的阳线上方买入
22:59 - 23:00
EN: There are several opportunities.
ZH: 有很多个做多入场点（注：绿色框框标记）
23:00 - 23:06
EN: No one’s going to take all of those buys, but if you’re looking for a swing trade,
ZH: 不是让你在每个地方都买入加仓， 但对于波段交易来说，你至少应该抓住其中一个入场点
23:04 - 23:06
EN: you should take at least one of them.
ZH: 不是让你在每个地方都买入加仓， 但对于波段交易来说，你至少应该抓住其中一个入场点
23:07 - 23:13
EN: Big gap up.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开，双底； 大幅跳空高开，楔形底，上涨波段
23:09 - 23:13
EN: A double bottom, big gap up, Wedge Bottom, and a swing up.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开，双底； 大幅跳空高开，楔形底，上涨波段
23:14 - 23:16
EN: The two remaining charts are the opposite.
ZH: 另外两个案例则相反
23:16 - 23:20
EN: We have a big gap up and a Double Top and a swing down,
ZH: 大幅跳空高开之后，形成双顶和下跌波段
23:20 - 23:23
EN: and we have a big gap up and a Wedge Top and a swing down.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开之后，形成楔形顶和下跌波段
23:25 - 23:28
EN: Pretty good rally, testing the high.
ZH: 上涨，测试前期高点
23:28 - 23:31
EN: It’s a Double Top, slightly Lower High.
ZH: 形成双顶，高点略微降低
23:32 - 23:37
EN: Bears will look to sell below bear bars closing on
ZH: 看到有阴线收在最低或接近最低， 空头会在它的下方卖出做空，最终赚到了波段
23:35 - 23:37
EN: or near their lows, and they got a swing down.
ZH: 看到有阴线收在最低或接近最低， 空头会在它的下方卖出做空，最终赚到了波段
23:40 - 23:44
EN: In this particular case we have a bull bar and a doji, so a pause.
ZH: 在第4个案例中，阳线、十字星——是一次暂停
23:44 - 23:49
EN: So bull bar, a doji, and then a bull bar and a bear bar, the second leg up,
ZH: 阳线，十字星；阳线，阴线，这是第2段上涨
23:49 - 23:52
EN: and then a bull bar and another bear bar, so a third leg up.
ZH: 然后阳线、阴线，这是第3推
23:52 - 23:54
EN: A small Wedge.
ZH: 小楔形顶
23:54 - 23:58
EN: However, traders will look to sell below bear bars closing on their lows,
ZH: 空头会在收在最低的阴线下方卖出做空
23:58 - 24:01
EN: taking a chance that it might become the high of the day,
ZH: 押注这有可能就是今天的最高点
24:01 - 24:03
EN: and they got a swing down.
ZH: 成功赚到了下跌波段
24:05 - 24:11
EN: You’re looking for either a Double Bottom or a Wedge Bottom,
ZH: 跳空高开之后，要么等待双底或楔形底——小回调， 然后做多押注上涨趋势恢复；
24:08 - 24:17
EN: a minor reversal down and then a swing up, or you’re looking for a Double Top
ZH: 跳空高开之后，要么等待双底或楔形底——小回调， 然后做多押注上涨趋势恢复； 或者等待双顶或楔形顶，然后押注反转下跌
24:14 - 24:17
EN: or a Wedge Top and then a swing down.
ZH: 或者等待双顶或楔形顶，然后押注反转下跌
24:17 - 24:20
EN: 80% of the time you’ll get this on any open.
ZH: 80%交易日的开盘，都是类似的情况
24:20 - 24:25
EN: These are examples of the patterns when you have a big gap up,
ZH: 这些是大幅跳空高开的一些案例
24:25 - 24:31
EN: but 80% of the time on any open, you’re going to get at least a minor reversal
ZH: 但80%的时候，不管有没有跳空， 不论早盘第1个趋势看起来多么强势
24:30 - 24:37
EN: and 50% of the time you’re going to get a major reversal,
ZH: 但80%的时候，不管有没有跳空， 不论早盘第1个趋势看起来多么强势 80%的概率会有小反转，50%的概率会有大反转
24:34 - 24:37
EN: even if the initial move is very strong.
ZH: 80%的概率会有小反转，50%的概率会有大反转
24:39 - 24:41
EN: This is a very important slide.
ZH: 这页课件非常重要
Slide 010
Time: 24:40
Bilingual Transcript
24:42 - 24:44
EN: It’s a problem for traders starting out.
ZH: 是新手交易者会遇到的问题
24:45 - 24:50
EN: They’ll see a very strong breakout like this and they’ll conclude
ZH: 他们看到早盘这么强势的下跌，就觉得今天肯定是下降趋势日；
24:48 - 24:58
EN: that the day has to be a bear trend, or they’ll see a very strong rally on the open
ZH: 他们看到早盘这么强势的下跌，就觉得今天肯定是下降趋势日； 他们看到早盘这么强势的上涨，就觉得今天肯定是上涨趋势日， 但事实并非如此
24:53 - 24:58
EN: and they’ll conclude that the day is probably going
ZH: 他们看到早盘这么强势的上涨，就觉得今天肯定是上涨趋势日， 但事实并非如此
24:55 - 24:58
EN: to be a bull trend, and that is wrong.
ZH: 他们看到早盘这么强势的上涨，就觉得今天肯定是上涨趋势日， 但事实并非如此
24:58 - 25:02
EN: On the open, no matter how strong a selloff, no matter how strong a rally,
ZH: 在开盘时，无论下跌有多强势，无论上涨有多强势
25:02 - 25:06
EN: 50% chance it’s going to fail and reverse,
ZH: 50%的概率它会失败并反转
25:06 - 25:09
EN: and that takes a while to get used to, but that is the truth.
ZH: 这需要一段时间来习惯，但这是事实
25:09 - 25:13
EN: 50% of strong moves on the open reverse.
ZH: 开盘的强趋势50%的概率会反转
25:16 - 25:18
EN: So, don’t get fooled.
ZH: 所以不要被骗了
25:18 - 25:23
EN: If you see a strong selloff like this and then you get a bull bar closing
ZH: 如果在强势下跌时做空了， 然后看到有一根阳线收在一半以上，甚至收在最高——
25:22 - 25:26
EN: above its midpoint or on its high, it’s often an inside bar or a big reversal bar.
ZH: 如果在强势下跌时做空了， 然后看到有一根阳线收在一半以上，甚至收在最高—— 通常是一根孕线或大的反转阳线
25:27 - 25:30
EN: If you’re short, it’s better to get out of shorts.
ZH: 此时空头最好先离场再说
25:30 - 25:32
EN: If you want, you can often get long.
ZH: 此时往往可以做多
25:32 - 25:34
EN: The opposite’s true here.
ZH: 反过来也是一样
25:34 - 25:37
EN: If you see a strong rally on the open, within a few bars you get a bear bar
ZH: 在开盘看到强势的上涨，但几根K线之后，
25:37 - 25:41
EN: closing on or near its low, it’s reasonable to get out of your long,
ZH: 出现了阴线收在最低，此时多头先离场是合理的
25:41 - 25:44
EN: and then if you get another buy setup you can buy again.
ZH: 如果看到新的做多机会，再次买入即可
25:44 - 25:46
EN: Here, a High 2 bull flag – High 1, High 2.
ZH: 这里有一个高2牛旗——高1，高2
25:47 - 25:52
EN: Some traders will short, taking a chance that it will remain the high of the day.
ZH: 一些交易者会做空，押注这就是当天的最高点
25:52 - 25:56
EN: So, they’ll sell below that bear bar, put a stop above, and then just wait.
ZH: 他们会在那根阴线下方卖出做空，把止损放在上面，然后等待
25:56 - 25:58
EN: You can see the market tried to go up.
ZH: 市场尝试上涨
25:58 - 26:02
EN: It could not run the stops of the bears, and it reversed down.
ZH: 没有能够把空头的止损打掉，最终反转下跌
26:03 - 26:06
EN: Opening up and then a reversal down.
ZH: 开盘上涨，然后反转下跌
26:06 - 26:07
EN: Opening reversal.
ZH: 这就是早盘反转
26:13 - 26:18
EN: Strong selloff, and the market’s Always In Short yet it reversed up.
ZH: 剧烈的抛售，市场在单边下跌，但很快反转上涨
26:18 - 26:20
EN: It’s an opening reversal up.
ZH: 早盘的反转上涨
26:20 - 26:24
EN: I would call this an opening reversal up from the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 我认为价格在60分钟的EMA20获得了支撑并反转上涨 （注：下面这条均线是60分钟的EMA20）
26:24 - 26:27
EN: Even though it fell several points below the 60-minute Moving Average,
ZH: 尽管它往下多跌了几个点
26:27 - 26:31
EN: a lot of times that’s what happens
ZH: 在测试60分钟均线的时候，这种情况经常发生
26:29 - 26:31
EN: when you get a test of the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 在测试60分钟均线的时候，这种情况经常发生
26:31 - 26:37
EN: Sometimes the market will fall 5 or even 10 points below
ZH: 有时价格会多跌5~10个点，然后强势地反转上涨
26:35 - 26:37
EN: and then reverse up strongly.
ZH: 有时价格会多跌5~10个点，然后强势地反转上涨
26:37 - 26:42
EN: If you want, you can also call this
ZH: 也可以把它看作是第2次跌破昨天低点失败
26:39 - 26:42
EN: a second failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 也可以把它看作是第2次跌破昨天低点失败
26:42 - 26:46
EN: We don’t see yesterday’s low, but this is a gap down below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 这里我没有把昨天的最低点标记出来， 但今天跳空低开，低于昨天低点
26:46 - 26:47
EN: Tried to reverse up.
ZH: 第1次尝试反转上涨
26:47 - 26:51
EN: An even stronger breakout below yesterday’s low and it reversed up.
ZH: 更强势地跌破昨天低点，再次反转上涨
26:52 - 26:57
EN: This is an opening reversal up and this is a second opening reversal up.
ZH: 这是开盘的第1次反转上涨，这是第2次
26:57 - 27:01
EN: This is an opening reversal down, a reasonably strong rally to resistance.
ZH: 这是开盘的反转下跌，反弹到阻力位——
27:01 - 27:08
EN: The Moving Average in a bear trend and about a 50% pullback
ZH: 下降趋势中的均线；也大约是50%反弹—— 从昨天的收盘价，到今天早盘的最低点
27:05 - 27:08
EN: from yesterday’s close to today’s opening low.
ZH: 下降趋势中的均线；也大约是50%反弹—— 从昨天的收盘价，到今天早盘的最低点
27:11 - 27:15
EN: Opening reversal up, and it became the low of the day.
ZH: 早盘的反转上涨，于是它变成了当天的最低点
27:17 - 27:20
EN: Strong rally on the open above the Moving Average.
ZH: 开盘强势上涨，一直在均线上方
27:21 - 27:23
EN: However, it became the high of the day.
ZH: 然而，它成为了今天的最高点
27:23 - 27:25
EN: Bear bar right after the rally.
ZH: 有一根阴线收在低位
27:25 - 27:28
EN: It went sideways for a lot of bars and the bulls tried to resume,
ZH: 市场横盘了很久，多头尝试恢复上涨趋势
27:28 - 27:32
EN: but it remained the high of the day, and the reversal took place here.
ZH: 但始终无法突破这个高点，最终从这里开始反转下跌
27:32 - 27:39
EN: Big up, big down.
ZH: 大涨、大跌——没有上涨幅度那么大， 但足以让交易者认为这可能是一个双顶
27:34 - 27:39
EN: Not quite as big as the up, but big enough down to make traders think
ZH: 大涨、大跌——没有上涨幅度那么大， 但足以让交易者认为这可能是一个双顶
27:37 - 27:39
EN: that this might be a Double Top.
ZH: 大涨、大跌——没有上涨幅度那么大， 但足以让交易者认为这可能是一个双顶
27:39 - 27:43
EN: We might break below the neckline and fall for at least a Measured Move.
ZH: 有跌破颈线并至少继续跌到MM目标位的机会
27:47 - 27:48
EN: Opening reversal down.
ZH: 早盘的反转下跌
27:52 - 27:57
EN: Opening reversal, it’s an early reversal at support or resistance.
ZH: 早盘反转，往往发生在支撑位和阻力位
Slide 011
Time: 27:55
Bilingual Transcript
27:57 - 28:01
EN: If you get a strong selloff down to support and the market reverses up,
ZH: 如果开盘大跌到支撑位然后反转上涨，
28:01 - 28:05
EN: it often is the low of the day – like this, this, and this.
ZH: 那当天的最低点通常就已经出现了，比如这里、这里
28:06 - 28:10
EN: If you get a strong rally on the open and it reverses down,
ZH: 如果开盘强势上涨到阻力位然后反转下跌，
28:11 - 28:14
EN: that reversal down is an opening reversal down.
ZH: 那就是早盘反转下跌的机会
28:19 - 28:23
EN: The opening reversal often is some other pattern as well,
ZH: 早盘反转往往是有结构的
28:23 - 28:28
EN: like a Wedge rally here, Micro Double Top here.
ZH: 比如这里是楔形顶，这里有小双顶
28:29 - 28:32
EN: Sometimes it’s a Final Flag or a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 有时候是末端牛旗，或者低点降低的大反转
28:32 - 28:36
EN: Here, a Double Bottom, slightly Lower Low Double Bottom from yesterday.
ZH: 这一天是双底，低点略微降低——和昨天的低点形成双底
28:36 - 28:38
EN: Here we have a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 这里是一个双底牛旗
28:38 - 28:40
EN: The market’s rallying.
ZH: 市场之前在上涨
28:40 - 28:43
EN: We rallied – we pulled back sharply; the bears tried to get a reversal.
ZH: 开盘继续上涨，但大幅回调，空头尝试制造反转
28:43 - 28:46
EN: Instead, the bulls get a Double Bottom at the Moving Average
ZH: 然而，价格在均线获得支撑，形成双底
28:46 - 28:48
EN: and the market reverses up.
ZH: 然后市场恢复上涨趋势
28:52 - 28:54
EN: You can see the Moving Average.
ZH: 这是均线
28:54 - 28:57
EN: We gapped down from yesterday’s close, maybe below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 今天大幅跳空低开，甚至可能已经低于昨天的最低点
28:57 - 29:01
EN: and we reversed up strongly, again, and again a third time
ZH: 然后强势反弹，第2次，第3次
29:01 - 29:04
EN: - yet the market reversed down at the Moving Average.
ZH: ——市场在均线遇到了阻力并反转下跌
29:04 - 29:06
EN: Three reversals up, each failed.
ZH: 3次反弹，都失败了
29:06 - 29:07
EN: It’s a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 所以它是楔形熊旗——
29:07 - 29:12
EN: Bear flag because we’re below the Moving Average and below yesterday’s close.
ZH: 此时是下降趋势，均线是向下的，价格低于昨天的收盘价
29:12 - 29:14
EN: Then it became a Double Top as well,
ZH: 然后又形成了双顶
29:14 - 29:18
EN: but at this point it’s an opening reversal down, possible high of the day.
ZH: 由于开盘的反转下跌，它有可能就是今天的最高点
29:18 - 29:21
EN: Bears will sell and put a stop above the top of the Wedge.
ZH: 空头会入场做空，把止损放在楔形顶的上方
29:21 - 29:24
EN: This tested the stop, but never hit it.
ZH: 市场测试了前高，但没能打掉空头的止损
29:27 - 29:30
EN: We broke strongly above yesterday’s high and stalled.
ZH: 开盘大涨，刚突破了昨天的高点就停滞了
29:30 - 29:32
EN: We got a Micro Double Top and a reversal down.
ZH: 形成了小双顶，然后反转下跌
29:32 - 29:36
EN: An opening reversal down from the resistance at yesterday’s high.
ZH: 所以是遇到阻力位（昨天高点）之后的早盘反转下跌
29:38 - 29:43
EN: This is last week’s low, and this is a strong selloff trying
ZH: 绿线是上周的最低点，开盘大跌， 尝试跌破上周的最低点
29:41 - 29:43
EN: to break below last week’s low.
ZH: 绿线是上周的最低点，开盘大跌， 尝试跌破上周的最低点
29:43 - 29:44
EN: Last week was a sell signal bar,
ZH: 上周的周K线是一根做空信号K
29:44 - 29:47
EN: and the bears were hoping to get a weekly sell signal.
ZH: 空头希望周K线级别的做空信号被触发 （注：即跌破上周的最低点）
29:47 - 29:49
EN: Instead we had a very strong selloff
ZH: 然而，在这么强势的下跌之后，
29:49 - 29:52
EN: and then a very good bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 出现了一根很漂亮的阳线收在最高
29:52 - 29:55
EN: The bulls were buying, betting that the market would not trigger
ZH: 多头大量买入，不让周K线级别的做空信号被触发
29:55 - 30:00
EN: the weekly sell signal, and the bears were buying back their shorts
ZH: 空头在看到这么好的做多信号之后，也会买入回补
29:58 - 30:00
EN: once they saw this good-looking bull bar.
ZH: 空头在看到这么好的做多信号之后，也会买入回补
30:04 - 30:08
EN: We broke strongly below yesterday’s low, yet we reversed up
ZH: 开盘大跌，跌破了昨天的最低点，但很快反转上涨
30:08 - 30:11
EN: - an opening reversal up from below yesterday’s low.
ZH: ——在昨天低点获得支撑，反转上涨
30:14 - 30:18
EN: The market’s in a bull trend and we tried to rally on the open,
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势，开盘之后尝试延续趋势
30:18 - 30:20
EN: and then we reversed down strongly.
ZH: 但价格急剧反转下跌 （注：两根大阴线收在最低，很吓人）
30:20 - 30:23
EN: The bears were hoping this would be the high of the day; instead,
ZH: 空头希望这就是当天的最高点
30:23 - 30:28
EN: we reversed up strongly, and this is a Double Bottom
ZH: 然而，价格强势反转上涨，在均线获得支撑、形成双底
30:26 - 30:28
EN: at the Moving Average in a bull trend.
ZH: 然而，价格强势反转上涨，在均线获得支撑、形成双底
30:28 - 30:34
EN: So, a Double Bottom bull flag opening reversal up
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调到均线，形成双底牛旗，反转上涨
30:31 - 30:34
EN: after a selloff down to the Moving Average.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调到均线，形成双底牛旗，反转上涨
30:40 - 30:42
EN: When the market has an opening reversal,
ZH: 如果遇到早盘的反转行情
Slide 012
Time: 30:40
Bilingual Transcript
30:43 - 30:46
EN: the size of the initial wrong move is significant.
ZH: 最初错误趋势的幅度很重要
30:46 - 30:49
EN: It determines what will happen next.
ZH: 它决定了接下来会发生什么
30:53 - 31:00
EN: For example, here we have a selloff that is about 25% to 50%
ZH: 比如，这段下跌的幅度，是前一天振幅的25%到50% （注：振幅，指K线最高点和最低点之间的距离）
30:58 - 31:00
EN: of the size of the prior day’s range.
ZH: 比如，这段下跌的幅度，是前一天振幅的25%到50% （注：振幅，指K线最高点和最低点之间的距离）
31:00 - 31:05
EN: I don’t see the full size of the prior day’s range,
ZH: 这里没有把前一天的范围都展示出来， 但它不是一个特别大的下降趋势
31:03 - 31:05
EN: but it’s not a particularly big selloff.
ZH: 这里没有把前一天的范围都展示出来， 但它不是一个特别大的下降趋势
31:05 - 31:09
EN: When you get a reversal from a selloff that is not particularly big,
ZH: 如果最初的下跌幅度不是很大
31:09 - 31:13
EN: the day often can go and become a very big bull trend.
ZH: 那么在反转上涨之后，这一天经常可以走出很大的上涨趋势
31:13 - 31:15
EN: So, a selloff, reversal above the high,
ZH: 下跌，反转上涨超过起跌点
31:15 - 31:18
EN: and you can get a very big bull trend out of it.
ZH: 有机会形成很大的上涨趋势
31:21 - 31:26
EN: You can see it went up for about a Measured Move up
ZH: 可以看到，把这个高度往上翻一倍， 市场上涨到了MM目标位，甚至还不止
31:24 - 31:26
EN: based upon the initial selloff, maybe a little bit more.
ZH: 可以看到，把这个高度往上翻一倍， 市场上涨到了MM目标位，甚至还不止
31:28 - 31:32
EN: The rally after the reversal went far above the open.
ZH: 反转上涨后，价格远超开盘价
31:38 - 31:45
EN: Now that’s very different from an initial selloff
ZH: 如果开盘下跌的幅度是日K线平均振幅的50%到100%， 那么情况就不一样了
31:41 - 31:45
EN: that is between 50% and 100% of an average day’s range.
ZH: 如果开盘下跌的幅度是日K线平均振幅的50%到100%， 那么情况就不一样了
31:45 - 31:51
EN: This selloff is about the size of an average day’s range,
ZH: 这段下跌，尽管只有4根K线，已经达到了日K线平均振幅的大小
31:49 - 31:51
EN: even though the selloff was only in 4 bars.
ZH: 这段下跌，尽管只有4根K线，已经达到了日K线平均振幅的大小
31:52 - 31:56
EN: Whenever the initial selloff is big and then you get a reversal,
ZH: 如果最初的趋势这么大，然后反转——
31:56 - 32:00
EN: it doesn’t matter if it’s a reversal on the open
ZH: 不管反转发生在早盘还是晚些时候
31:57 - 32:00
EN: or if the reversal occurs later in the day.
ZH: 不管反转发生在早盘还是晚些时候
32:00 - 32:05
EN: The reversal usually leads to a Trading Range rather than a big bull trend.
ZH: 通常最多形成震荡区间，而不是更大的上涨趋势 （注：意思是，通常不会超过起跌点太多）
32:05 - 32:09
EN: Sometimes the market gets above the high, as it did here,
ZH: 有时价格会超过起跌点，就比如这一天
32:09 - 32:12
EN: but when it does it usually does not get much above the high.
ZH: 但通常不会超过太多
32:12 - 32:16
EN: A lot of times it’ll get near the high, not quite above it,
ZH: 很多时候只是涨回到起跌点附近，然后开始横盘， 而不会大幅突破它
32:14 - 32:16
EN: and then simply go sideways.
ZH: 很多时候只是涨回到起跌点附近，然后开始横盘， 而不会大幅突破它
32:16 - 32:20
EN: A big initial selloff, if you get a reversal,
ZH: 开盘暴跌，然后反转上涨的话
32:20 - 32:23
EN: usually results in a doji bar on the daily chart
ZH: 通常在日K线上会形成一个十字星 （注：下影线很长，开盘价和收盘价很接近）
32:23 - 32:27
EN: - a down move and an up move, but not a big trend above the high.
ZH: ——下跌，上涨，不会大幅突破起跌点
32:27 - 32:31
EN: It can rally all day – here it rallied for about 70 bars
ZH: 上涨可以持续很久——这一天上涨了大约70根K线
32:31 - 32:33
EN: - but only barely get above the open.
ZH: 但最终收盘只是略高于开盘价
32:34 - 32:36
EN: It simply retraced the 4 bar selloff.
ZH: 只是把这4根阴线的跌幅修复了而已
32:36 - 32:42
EN: It took 70 bars to retrace those 4 bars,
ZH: 用了70根K线，来修复4根大阴线的跌幅， 这就是当天所有的行情了
32:39 - 32:42
EN: but that’s all it did was retrace the 4 bars.
ZH: 用了70根K线，来修复4根大阴线的跌幅， 这就是当天所有的行情了
32:46 - 32:48
EN: Initial selloff, very big
ZH: 最初的下降趋势，非常大
32:48 - 32:52
EN: - about the size of an average day’s range in just 4 bars.
ZH: 4根K线就达到了日K线的平均振幅
32:52 - 32:58
EN: When you get a reversal, the reversal usually has a hard time going much
ZH: 如果反转上涨，就算能突破起跌点，也不会突破太多
32:56 - 32:58
EN: above the high if it does go above the high at all.
ZH: 如果反转上涨，就算能突破起跌点，也不会突破太多
33:03 - 33:06
EN: This is true for all reversals.
ZH: 所有的日内反转都是这样
33:06 - 33:08
EN: These charts are examples of opening reversals.
ZH: 尽管这些是早盘反转的案例
33:08 - 33:12
EN: An early selloff and a reversal up, early selloff and a reversal up
ZH: 开盘下跌，反转上涨；开盘下跌，反转上涨
33:12 - 33:19
EN: - but it would not matter if the selloff lasted until the middle of the day
ZH: 如果抛售一直持续到中午，然后反转上涨，也是一样的
33:16 - 33:19
EN: and then you got the reversal in the middle of the day.
ZH: 如果抛售一直持续到中午，然后反转上涨，也是一样的
33:18 - 33:19
EN: The same thing.
ZH: 如果抛售一直持续到中午，然后反转上涨，也是一样的
33:19 - 33:24
EN: If the selloff is very big, the reversal often will retrace the entire selloff,
ZH: 下跌幅度非常大的话，也许会能把跌幅全部修复
33:24 - 33:26
EN: but not go for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 但很难继续上涨到MM目标位
33:26 - 33:30
EN: It usually has a hard time going much above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 通常很难大幅突破早盘的起跌点
33:34 - 33:39
EN: That was a bull reversal, and now I have bear reversals illustrating the same point.
ZH: 刚才是早盘反转上涨的案例， 现在来看反转下跌的案例，也是一样的
Slide 013
Time: 33:35
Bilingual Transcript
33:42 - 33:45
EN: Here, the rally is very small.
ZH: 这里，开盘的上涨幅度很小
33:45 - 33:48
EN: Probably less than 25% of an average day’s range.
ZH: 甚至还不到日K线平均振幅的25%
33:48 - 33:53
EN: Once you get a reversal, the reversal can lead to a very big trend day.
ZH: 一旦成功地反转下跌，可能会形成非常大的下降趋势日
33:55 - 33:59
EN: Very small rally, maybe 25% of an average day’s range.
ZH: 上涨幅度很小，只有日K线平均振幅的25%
33:59 - 34:04
EN: When you get a reversal, the reversal can be much bigger than that initial rally.
ZH: 如果反转下跌，跌幅可以远超最初的涨幅
34:05 - 34:08
EN: Here, it’s many times bigger, not simply a Measured Move down.
ZH: 这一天暴跌了非常多，远超MM目标位
34:08 - 34:12
EN: It’s maybe three, four, five times the height of the initial rally.
ZH: 是最初涨幅的5倍都不止
34:20 - 34:24
EN: This is a very big rally on the open, about the size of an average day’s range,
ZH: 而这一天开盘的涨幅非常大，已经达到了日K线的平均振幅
34:24 - 34:28
EN: and it occurred simply in the first 15, 20 bars or so.
ZH: 尽管此时才走了15~20根K线
34:28 - 34:32
EN: Whenever you have a very big rally on the open and you get a reversal,
ZH: 如果开盘的涨幅很大，然后反转下跌
34:32 - 34:36
EN: usually the market has a hard time falling much below the low of the day.
ZH: 通常很难跌破起涨点太多
34:36 - 34:45
EN: Rarely – I say rarely, maybe 20% of the time – it goes very far down
ZH: 很少很少，只有20%的时候，会大幅下跌到MM目标位甚至更多， 就像这个案例这样
34:42 - 34:45
EN: and falls for a Measured Move or more, and that was the case here.
ZH: 很少很少，只有20%的时候，会大幅下跌到MM目标位甚至更多， 就像这个案例这样
34:48 - 34:51
EN: A very big rally, and then we got a reversal.
ZH: 非常大的上涨趋势，然后反转下跌
34:51 - 34:57
EN: Usually the reversal will have a hard time falling
ZH: 通常不会大幅跌破早盘的起涨点
34:55 - 34:57
EN: much below the low of the rally.
ZH: 通常不会大幅跌破早盘的起涨点
34:57 - 35:05
EN: Sometimes, maybe one chance out of five, it’ll fall for a lot further
ZH: 偶尔，只有20%的时候，价格会继续下跌到MM目标位， 就像比如这一天的行情
35:02 - 35:05
EN: and go down for about a Measured Move, as it did here.
ZH: 偶尔，只有20%的时候，价格会继续下跌到MM目标位， 就像比如这一天的行情
35:12 - 35:17
EN: This is true whether or not the reversal occurs on the open
ZH: 不管反转是否发生在早盘，都是这样的
35:15 - 35:17
EN: or whether it occurs later in the day.
ZH: 不管反转是否发生在早盘，都是这样的
35:17 - 35:18
EN: This is on the open.
ZH: 这一天是早盘反转
35:18 - 35:20
EN: This is a little bit later in the day,
ZH: 这一天的反转更晚一些
35:20 - 35:24
EN: but it would not matter if the reversal topped out here and came down.
ZH: 但就算反转是从这里开始下跌的，也是一样
35:24 - 35:26
EN: The same logic holds.
ZH: 逻辑是不变的 （注：绝大多数交易日的振幅不会太大或太小）
35:26 - 35:29
EN: If the initial rally is very big, the selloff,
ZH: 如果最初的上涨幅度很大，
35:29 - 35:31
EN: it can last for the remainder of the day
ZH: 反转下跌确实可能持续一整天
35:31 - 35:35
EN: but usually does not go far below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 但通常不会大幅跌破起涨点
35:35 - 35:39
EN: This is the exception, where it does go very far below the bull trend.
ZH: 这是一个例外，价格远远跌破了起涨点
35:44 - 35:50
EN: At any given bar on the day, what’s the chance
ZH: 给定任何一根5分钟K线，此时有多大的概率， 当天的最高点或最低点已经出现了？
Slide 014
Time: 35:45
Bilingual Transcript
35:47 - 35:50
EN: that you’ve already seen the high or low of the day?
ZH: 给定任何一根5分钟K线，此时有多大的概率， 当天的最高点或最低点已经出现了？
35:50 - 35:51
EN: This is the Emini chart.
ZH: 这是标普股指期货
35:51 - 35:55
EN: It has 81 bars in the day session on a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 日内有81根5分钟K线 （注：只看常规时间，不算盘前盘后）
35:57 - 36:07
EN: At the close of the first bar, there’s a 20% chance
ZH: 在第1根K线收盘时，有20%的概率， 它就是当天的最高点或最低点
36:00 - 36:07
EN: that the first bar will remain the low of the day
ZH: 在第1根K线收盘时，有20%的概率， 它就是当天的最高点或最低点
36:04 - 36:07
EN: and a 20% chance that it is the high of the day.
ZH: 在第1根K线收盘时，有20%的概率， 它就是当天的最高点或最低点
36:07 - 36:11
EN: At this point, by the time the bar closes, you don’t know which it’ll be,
ZH: 在它收盘的时候，你不知道接下来会上涨还是下跌
36:11 - 36:14
EN: but there’s a 20% chance it’ll be the low and we’ll go up,
ZH: 但有20%的概率，它就是今天的最低点，接下来会上涨
36:14 - 36:16
EN: or the high and we’ll go down.
ZH: 或它是最高点，接下来会下跌
36:20 - 36:24
EN: By the end of the seventh bar, there’s a 50% chance
ZH: 在第7根K线收盘后，有50%的概率
36:24 - 36:29
EN: that the market has either already made the high or already has made the low.
ZH: 当天的最高点或最低点其中一个已经出现了
36:34 - 36:37
EN: By the end of the twelfth bar, the end of the first hour,
ZH: 在第12根K线收盘后，也就是开盘后1个小时，
36:37 - 36:43
EN: there’s a 70% chance that either this will remain the low
ZH: 有70%的概率，要么它是今天的最低点， 要么它是今天的最高点
36:41 - 36:43
EN: or this will remain the high.
ZH: 有70%的概率，要么它是今天的最低点， 要么它是今天的最高点
Slide 015
Time: 36:45
Bilingual Transcript
36:48 - 36:52
EN: Bar 18, hour and a half into the day.
ZH: 在第18根K线，也就是开盘后1个半小时
36:53 - 36:57
EN: You can test this yourself, what I’m about to say, but it’s true.
ZH: 你可以自己去回测数据
36:57 - 37:05
EN: By the close of Bar 18, there’s a 90% chance
ZH: 在第18根K线收盘后，90%的概率， 当天的最低点或最高点其中一个已经出现了
37:02 - 37:05
EN: we’ve seen either the low or the high of the day.
ZH: 在第18根K线收盘后，90%的概率， 当天的最低点或最高点其中一个已经出现了
37:10 - 37:12
EN: There’s nothing magical about 18.
ZH: 18并不是什么神奇数字
37:12 - 37:15
EN: I could’ve picked Bar 15, and by Bar 15,
ZH: 我也可以选择15，在第15根K线收盘后，
37:15 - 37:18
EN: instead of 90%, maybe there’s an 80%.
ZH: 也许是80%的概率（最高或最低点已经出现一个）
37:18 - 37:23
EN: I could’ve picked Bar 30, and Bar 30, maybe 95% chance
ZH: 我也可以选择30，在第30根K线收盘后，
37:23 - 37:25
EN: that we’ve seen the high or low of the day.
ZH: 也许是95%的概率当天的最高或最低点已经出现
37:25 - 37:31
EN: I use Bar 18, and it’s a pretty reliable marker for the high or low of the day.
ZH: 我选择第18根K线，它能帮助我判断当天的最高或最低点是否已经出现
37:31 - 37:35
EN: 90% chance – and that’s important because if you break below the low,
ZH: 90%的概率——这很重要，因为如果向下跌破，
37:35 - 37:39
EN: then you know the market’s not going above the high, 90% certain,
ZH: 你就知道，90%的确定性市场不会突破早盘的最高点
37:39 - 37:43
EN: and therefore the day is either a bear trend or a Trading Range day.
ZH: 所以今天要么是下降趋势，要么是震荡区间
37:43 - 37:47
EN: If, on the other hand, it breaks above the high of the 18 bar range,
ZH: 然而，如果价格向上突破了前18根K线的范围
37:47 - 37:54
EN: first 18 bars, then the day is probably going to be a bull trend day
ZH: 那么今天要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间， 而且很大的概率不会跌到新低
37:51 - 37:54
EN: or Trading Range day, and it’s probably not going down to a new low.
ZH: 那么今天要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间， 而且很大的概率不会跌到新低
37:58 - 38:00
EN: Here’s Bar 80.
ZH: 这是第80根K线
38:00 - 38:02
EN: The 5-minute chart has 81 bars.
ZH: 一天一共只有81根5分钟K线
38:03 - 38:08
EN: What’s the chance that by the close of Bar 80,
ZH: 在第80根K线收盘后，当天最高或最低点已经出现的概率是多少？
38:05 - 38:08
EN: we’ve seen the high or low of the day?
ZH: 在第80根K线收盘后，当天最高或最低点已经出现的概率是多少？
38:08 - 38:17
EN: 99.9% chance by the close of this bar,
ZH: 在它收盘时，99.9%的概率，要么它是今天的最高点， 要么它是最低点
38:12 - 38:17
EN: either this will remain the high or this will remain the low.
ZH: 在它收盘时，99.9%的概率，要么它是今天的最高点， 要么它是最低点
38:17 - 38:19
EN: Is that useful information?
ZH: 但这个信息有用吗？
38:19 - 38:25
EN: Of course not, because you’re not going to be placing a trade based
ZH: 没有用，因为你没办法根据这个信息在最后1根K线做交易
38:22 - 38:25
EN: on that information for the last bar of the day.
ZH: 没有用，因为你没办法根据这个信息在最后1根K线做交易
Slide 016
Time: 38:28
Bilingual Transcript
38:32 - 38:36
EN: Traders are always looking for a swing trade early in the day.
ZH: 交易者总是想在早盘的时候抓到波段交易
38:41 - 38:47
EN: Early in the day there’s a 90% chance
ZH: 在早盘，有90%的概率会有上涨或下跌的波段交易机会
38:43 - 38:47
EN: that you’re going to have a profitable swing trade up or down.
ZH: 在早盘，有90%的概率会有上涨或下跌的波段交易机会
38:47 - 38:53
EN: By the close of the first bar, you have a 20% chance
ZH: 在第1根K线收盘时，有20%的概率， 今天的最高或最低点其中一个已经出现了
38:51 - 38:53
EN: that you’ve already seen the high or low of the day,
ZH: 在第1根K线收盘时，有20%的概率， 今天的最高或最低点其中一个已经出现了
38:53 - 38:56
EN: or at least the high or low of the next several hours.
ZH: 或者接下来两个小时的最高或最低点已经出现了
38:59 - 39:01
EN: First bar of the day here.
ZH: 当天的第1根K线在这里
39:01 - 39:04
EN: Even though we sold off for 5 hours,
ZH: 尽管后来下跌了5个小时
39:04 - 39:06
EN: it remained the low of the day for the first 6 hours.
ZH: 直到最后半小时之前，它都是当天的最低点
39:10 - 39:11
EN: First bar here.
ZH: 第1根K线在这里
39:11 - 39:13
EN: Despite this reversal up,
ZH: 尽管这里有一点点上涨
39:13 - 39:16
EN: it remained the high of the day for the remainder of the day.
ZH: 在接下来的时间里，它就是当天的最高点
39:18 - 39:20
EN: First bar here, a bear reversal bar.
ZH: 第1根K线在这里，是一根反转阴线
39:20 - 39:23
EN: It remained the high for the next 40 bars.
ZH: 在接下来的40根K线里，它一直都是最高点
39:26 - 39:30
EN: This video, I’m going to focus on finding a swing trade on the open.
ZH: 这节课，我主要想讲早盘的波段交易机会
39:31 - 39:35
EN: By the open, I don’t necessarily mean the first bar; I mean the opening range.
ZH: 早盘，并不一定特指第1根K线，而是指开盘的区间范围
39:35 - 39:37
EN: Sometimes there is no opening range.
ZH: 有时不存在开盘区间
39:37 - 39:40
EN: Sometimes the market just rallies immediately from the first bar.
ZH: 有时从第1根K线开始就不断上涨
39:40 - 39:43
EN: More often it goes sideways for an hour or two.
ZH: 但更多时候，市场会先横盘一两个小时
39:43 - 39:46
EN: That hour or two is the open.
ZH: 那一两个小时就是早盘
39:46 - 39:50
EN: Traders will look for a swing trade during that opening range.
ZH: 交易者会在那个开盘范围里寻找波段交易的机会
39:53 - 39:55
EN: I’m going to be talking about swing trading here.
ZH: 今天主要讲波段交易
39:56 - 40:00
EN: If you want to find out information about scalping,
ZH: 在讲剥头皮的课程中，我具体讲了如何做剥头皮交易
39:58 - 40:00
EN: you can look at the videos on scalping.
ZH: 在讲剥头皮的课程中，我具体讲了如何做剥头皮交易
40:05 - 40:10
EN: There’s often a report that comes out 7:00 Pacific Time, and that’s Bar 7.
ZH: 在美西时间早上7点，经常会有新闻或数据，那就是第7根K线 （注：美东时间10点，6的收盘，7的开盘）
Slide 017
Time: 40:05
Bilingual Transcript
40:14 - 40:17
EN: By the close of that seventh bar of the day,
ZH: 在当天第7根K线收盘后
40:17 - 40:21
EN: there’s a 50% chance we’ve seen either the high or low of the day,
ZH: 有50%的概率，当天的最高或最低点已经出现了一个
40:21 - 40:24
EN: or certainly the high or low for the next several hours.
ZH: 或者说，至少接下来几个小时的最高或最低点已经出现了一个
40:26 - 40:29
EN: Bar 7, it became the high of the day.
ZH: 比如这天，第7根K线就是当天的最高点
40:33 - 40:37
EN: The first 90 minutes, there’s a 90% chance
ZH: 开盘后90分钟，有90%的概率
Slide 018
Time: 40:35
Bilingual Transcript
40:37 - 40:40
EN: that the high or low of the day has already formed.
ZH: 当天的最高或最低点其中一个已经出现了
40:40 - 40:43
EN: (I’ll talk more about this in a later video on trading the open.)
ZH: （在后续讲开盘交易的视频中会更详细地讲解这一点）
40:46 - 40:47
EN: Here’s the high of the day.
ZH: 它是当天的高点
40:50 - 40:51
EN: High of the day.
ZH: 当天的高点
40:52 - 40:53
EN: High of the day.
ZH: 当天的高点
40:53 - 40:56
EN: This is by the eighteenth bar, all of these.
ZH: 都在第18根K线之前出现
Slide 019
Time: 41:00
Bilingual Transcript
41:01 - 41:03
EN: When I talk about swing trading in the Emini,
ZH: 当我降到标普期货的波段交易时
41:03 - 41:08
EN: typically I’m talking about a profit of 4 points or more.
ZH: 通常我指的是至少4个点的利润（注：当时只有2000点； 2026年年初已经涨到了7000点，波段交易至少要15~20个点）
41:10 - 41:13
EN: There’s a 90% chance of a swing trade
ZH: 90%的概率，在开盘后的两个小时内，
41:13 - 41:16
EN: (a 4 point profit) beginning in the first 2 hours.
ZH: 有至少4个点的波段交易机会
41:18 - 41:21
EN: We have a swing up, couple swings down here.
ZH: 这一天是上涨波段，这几天是下跌波段
41:21 - 41:25
EN: Several swings down, all beginning within the first couple of hours.
ZH: 早盘的下跌波段，都形成于前两个小时
41:27 - 41:32
EN: There’s an 80% chance of a swing trade beginning in the last 2 hours as well.
ZH: 80%的交易日，在最后两个小时里也有波段的机会
41:34 - 41:37
EN: Everyone should be looking for swing trades of 4 points or more.
ZH: 每个交易者都应该寻找至少4个点的波段交易机会
41:37 - 41:40
EN: It’s the easiest way to get consistently profitable.
ZH: 这是最简单的能达到稳定盈利的方法
41:46 - 41:50
EN: There’s a 50% chance that you’ll get a swing trade
ZH: 50%的概率在盘中会出现波段交易的机会 （注：比如第40根K线附近的盘中大反转）
41:49 - 41:50
EN: beginning in the middle of the day.
ZH: 50%的概率在盘中会出现波段交易的机会 （注：比如第40根K线附近的盘中大反转）
41:50 - 41:52
EN: So here we had a quiet Trading Range day,
ZH: 比如这一天，早盘很平静地横盘
41:52 - 41:55
EN: and the second half of the day became a trend.
ZH: 从中午开始进入了趋势
41:56 - 42:01
EN: It’s very common to find swing trades in the middle of the day
ZH: 很多盘中的趋势，都是从早盘两个小时开始的
41:59 - 42:01
EN: that began in the first 2 hours.
ZH: 很多盘中的趋势，都是从早盘两个小时开始的
42:01 - 42:05
EN: Middle of the day we have a swing trade that began in the first 2 hours.
ZH: 这个盘中的下降趋势是从早盘开始的
42:08 - 42:14
EN: Because the market is either going to have a swing trade starting
ZH: 由于趋势往往从头两个小时，或略微晚一点的时间开始，
42:13 - 42:20
EN: in the first 2 hours or shortly afterwards, traders should work very hard
ZH: 由于趋势往往从头两个小时，或略微晚一点的时间开始， 所以交易者应该努力地在早盘寻找波段交易的机会
42:17 - 42:20
EN: to look for swing trade setups in the first 2 hours
ZH: 所以交易者应该努力地在早盘寻找波段交易的机会
42:20 - 42:24
EN: and in the last couple of hours of the day as well.
ZH: 也要在尾盘寻找波段机会
42:24 - 42:27
EN: You can see in this sample of charts, there were swing trades
ZH: 可以在这些案例中看到，
42:27 - 42:30
EN: that went into the end of the day on every chart.
ZH: 每天都有持续到收盘的波段
42:34 - 42:37
EN: I’ve had friends who only traded the first hour or two.
ZH: 我的一些朋友只交易早盘的两个小时
42:37 - 42:40
EN: I had one friend who only would trade the first hour every day.
ZH: 其中一个人，每天只交易开盘的第1个小时
42:41 - 42:44
EN: He was trading 100 T-Bond futures contracts.
ZH: 他交易100手国债期货合约
42:44 - 42:47
EN: He told me, “Al, I looked at my results,
ZH: 他告诉我：“阿尔，根据交易结果的统计， 我85%的利润都来自于开盘的第1个小时，
42:47 - 42:50
EN: and 85% of my profits came from the first hour.
42:50 - 42:53
EN: Therefore, I’m only going to trade the first hour.”
ZH: 所以我就只在这个时候交易。”
42:53 - 42:58
EN: Other trades trade only the beginning of the day and the end of the day,
ZH: 一些交易者只在早盘和尾盘交易
42:58 - 43:00
EN: with very little trading in the middle of the day
ZH: 盘中几乎没有任何操作
43:00 - 43:03
EN: because the middle of the day often is quiet.
ZH: 因为中午通常都没什么行情
43:03 - 43:06
EN: I had another friend who used to trade the first 2 hours
ZH: 我认识一个交易员，他早晨交易两个小时
43:06 - 43:09
EN: and then go out on errands for the middle 2 hours
ZH: 然后出门两三个小时
43:09 - 43:11
EN: and then come back and trade the final 2 hours.
ZH: 尾盘再回家交易量个小时
43:11 - 43:15
EN: He was a very successful and consistently profitable trader.
ZH: 他是一个稳定盈利的交易员，非常成功
43:15 - 43:18
EN: In fact, he and I traded together for years.
ZH: 我和他一起交易了很多年
43:18 - 43:21
EN: To be honest, I don’t remember a day when he lost money.
ZH: 说实话，我印象中他好像没有亏钱的交易日
43:26 - 43:31
EN: Trading Range is more likely going to consolidate the move of the first hour.
ZH: 震荡区间通常是在巩固第一个小时的走势
43:31 - 43:35
EN: It often has Tight Trading Ranges and lots of minor reversals.
ZH: 它通常很窄，不断地来回小反转
43:35 - 43:40
EN: Traders often end up entering with limit orders
ZH: 盘中遇到震荡区间，交易者只能用限价单去交易
43:38 - 43:40
EN: during that middle third of the day.
ZH: 盘中遇到震荡区间，交易者只能用限价单去交易
43:40 - 43:42
EN: Beginners should not be entering with limit orders,
ZH: 新手不应该使用限价单入场
43:42 - 43:47
EN: and therefore when the middle of the day looks like this or like this,
ZH: 因此，如果盘中遇到这样、或这样的行情时
43:47 - 43:50
EN: usually most traders should not be trading – like that, like this.
ZH: 大部分人不应该交易——还有这里，这里
43:58 - 44:00
EN: Traders tend to think of the day as having three parts.
ZH: 交易者倾向于把交易日分成三个部分
Slide 020
Time: 44:00
Bilingual Transcript
44:01 - 44:05
EN: They pay particular attention to what takes place in the first couple of hours
ZH: 他们尤其关注早盘的两个小时，
44:05 - 44:10
EN: because that is the time of the day
ZH: 因为那是一天中最容易出现波段交易机会的时间
44:07 - 44:10
EN: when they have the best opportunity for a swing trade.
ZH: 因为那是一天中最容易出现波段交易机会的时间
44:11 - 44:15
EN: Also, they focus again intensely in the final hour or two
ZH: 另外，他们也会在尾盘的一两个小时集中精力
44:15 - 44:18
EN: because there’s often a swing trade at the end of the day.
ZH: 因为尾盘也经常会有波段交易的机会
44:19 - 44:22
EN: The middle of the day often has swing trades as well,
ZH: 盘中有时也会有波段交易
44:22 - 44:24
EN: but traders tend to be more cautious
ZH: 但交易者往往更加谨慎
44:24 - 44:28
EN: and the market is more likely to be in a Trading Range.
ZH: 而且市场很有可能横盘震荡
44:29 - 44:34
EN: Because the open is so important, there are a number of setups that take place,
ZH: 因为早盘非常重要，会有很多机会
44:34 - 44:39
EN: especially opening reversals, and I discussed several of them today.
ZH: 这节课尤其讲解了早盘的反转机会
44:43 - 44:44
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
44:44 - 44:46
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
44:46 - 44:50
EN: This is the first of six videos on trading the open.
ZH: 早盘的第1节课，就先讲到这里