al-brooks-course
44C - Trading Tight Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 44C - Trading Tight Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 17
- Transcript segments: 542
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易窄下降通道的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:15
EN: If a channel is not particularly tight,
ZH: 如果通道不是特别窄
00:15 - 00:19
EN: sometimes bulls will buy and scale in lower.
ZH: 有的多头会用限价单买入，并在更低的价格加仓
00:19 - 00:23
EN: I think it’s very important to pay attention to whether
ZH: 观察多头是否能赚钱非常重要
00:22 - 00:23
EN: or not the bulls can make money.
ZH: 观察多头是否能赚钱非常重要
00:23 - 00:27
EN: If it’s difficult for the bulls to make money, you should not be buying.
ZH: 如果多头很难赚钱，那就不应该买入
00:27 - 00:28
EN: You should only sell.
ZH: 只应该做空
Slide 002
Time: 00:30
Bilingual Transcript
00:32 - 00:36
EN: The market broke out, a series of bear bars, and then it pulls back.
ZH: 连续的阴线，向下跌破，然后反弹
00:36 - 00:41
EN: As soon as you pull back, then the market is in a channel phase.
ZH: 一旦反弹，市场就进入了通道阶段
00:41 - 00:43
EN: So a spike, pullback, and then a channel.
ZH: 所以是急速下跌、反弹、然后通道
00:43 - 00:49
EN: Even though this is very, very tight here and it’s a breakout
ZH: 这里，非常非常窄的下降通道，而且在更高的时间周期上是突破
00:47 - 00:54
EN: on a higher timeframe chart, on this chart I would call it
ZH: 这里，非常非常窄的下降通道，而且在更高的时间周期上是突破 在这张图上，它也处于一个大的窄下降通道里面
00:50 - 00:54
EN: a very Tight Bear Channel within a larger Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 在这张图上，它也处于一个大的窄下降通道里面
01:00 - 01:06
EN: What’s happening here is that every new low, bears are taking partial profits,
ZH: 这里发生的情况是，每次创新低的时候， 都有空头在止盈部分仓位
01:06 - 01:10
EN: taking partial profits, taking partial profits, and that’s causing pullbacks.
ZH: 止盈一部分，止盈一部分，从而造成了反弹
01:11 - 01:16
EN: And inexperienced bulls are buying above all of these bars
ZH: 一些没有经验的多头会在这些阳线上方买入，不断亏钱
01:14 - 01:16
EN: and losing money constantly.
ZH: 一些没有经验的多头会在这些阳线上方买入，不断亏钱
01:16 - 01:20
EN: They’re buying because the risk is small, and beginners only think about risk.
ZH: 他们买入是因为风险看起来很小——新手只考虑风险
01:20 - 01:22
EN: They don’t think about probability.
ZH: 他们不考虑概率
01:22 - 01:26
EN: When the pullbacks only last a bar or two and do not go up very far,
ZH: 当反弹只持续一两根K线且涨幅不大时
01:26 - 01:30
EN: it’s virtually impossible to make money, and therefore traders should only sell.
ZH: 做多几乎不可能赚钱，所以只能做空
01:31 - 01:34
EN: Once the bears start to see little pullbacks,
ZH: 空头看到反弹很小
01:34 - 01:38
EN: they begin to sell pullbacks and take profits at new lows,
ZH: 他们会在反弹时卖出，然后在跌到新低的时候止盈
01:38 - 01:41
EN: and the result is you keep getting small pullbacks.
ZH: 结果就导致不断的出现小反弹
01:41 - 01:45
EN: You have inexperienced bulls buying below bars hoping for a reversal,
ZH: 新手交易者在K线下方用限价单买入，希望能反转
01:45 - 01:46
EN: and they keep getting trapped.
ZH: 结果一直被套牢
01:46 - 01:50
EN: Or they’ll buy above a bull bar betting on a reversal,
ZH: 或者他们在阳线上方买入，押注反转，一直被套牢
01:49 - 01:50
EN: and they keep getting trapped.
ZH: 或者他们在阳线上方买入，押注反转，一直被套牢
01:50 - 01:54
EN: Not enough buyers following them, and the market continues down.
ZH: 除了他们以外，没有足够多的买盘，市场不断下跌
02:02 - 02:07
EN: Most bulls, most experienced bulls, are unwilling to buy these reversals
ZH: 大多数多头，大多数有经验的多头，不愿意在这里抄底
02:07 - 02:11
EN: because they know the pullbacks are only lasting a bar or two
ZH: 因为他们知道反弹只持续一两根K线
02:11 - 02:13
EN: and do not go up high enough to make money.
ZH: 涨幅太小，赚不到钱
02:14 - 02:20
EN: Nobody’s holding onto longs for swings up, and nobody’s buying more higher.
ZH: 没有多头会坚定持有做上涨波段， 更没有人在上涨时盈利加仓
02:20 - 02:25
EN: Therefore, these buys are all terrible, and in fact, if anything,
ZH: 因此这些做多入场点都是非常糟糕的， 如果一定要交易的话，
02:25 - 02:29
EN: you should be looking to sell exactly where you see buy setups.
ZH: 你应该在这些所谓的买点卖出做空
02:29 - 02:31
EN: The pullbacks are too small.
ZH: 反弹太小
02:31 - 02:36
EN: A Small Pullback Bear Trend, a very Tight Channel – you should only sell.
ZH: 反弹很小的下降趋势，非常窄的通道，只能做空
02:38 - 02:42
EN: When a channel is tight, every reversal is probably going to be minor.
ZH: 这么窄的通道，每次上涨都只是小反转
02:43 - 02:46
EN: Until you get a very strong minor reversal,
ZH: 在看到非常强势的小反转之前
02:46 - 02:49
EN: you have to bet that every reversal is going to be minor.
ZH: 只能押注每次上涨都是小反转
02:49 - 02:53
EN: Even the first strong reversal probably is minor
ZH: 第1次上涨即使非常强势，它也是小反转
02:53 - 02:56
EN: and the bulls will need a Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 多头需要一个大反转的结构——
02:56 - 02:59
EN: a test back down to the low, and then a reversal up from there.
ZH: 跌回到前期低点附近，然后从那里开始形成大的反转
03:00 - 03:02
EN: This is a minor reversal.
ZH: 这只是小反转
03:02 - 03:05
EN: Every one of these reversals is minor.
ZH: 这些都只是小反转
03:05 - 03:07
EN: This is a very strong minor reversal.
ZH: 这是一个非常强的小反转
03:07 - 03:09
EN: When you finally get a strong minor reversal,
ZH: 首先要看到像这样强势的小反转
03:09 - 03:12
EN: then the bulls will start looking for a swing up.
ZH: 多头才会开始押注上涨波段的机会
Slide 003
Time: 03:15
Bilingual Transcript
03:20 - 03:24
EN: Every bear trend is constantly forming Wedge Bottoms.
ZH: 下降趋势总是在不断地形成楔形底
03:24 - 03:27
EN: Every bull trend is constantly forming Wedge Tops.
ZH: 上涨趋势总是在不断地形成楔形顶
03:27 - 03:32
EN: A Wedge Bottom does not mean that the reversal will be major.
ZH: 楔形底并不代表会有大反转
03:32 - 03:35
EN: When the Wedge is this small and the channel is this tight,
ZH: 当楔形结构很小，而且通道这么窄的时候
03:35 - 03:40
EN: it’s a minor reversal, and it’ll lead to lower prices.
ZH: 它只会是小反转，然后继续下跌
03:40 - 03:43
EN: Every new low, you can keep redrawing Wedges.
ZH: 每次创新低之后，都可以画出新的楔形底
03:43 - 03:45
EN: So one, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
03:45 - 03:46
EN: You break to a new low.
ZH: 跌到新低
03:46 - 03:48
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
03:48 - 03:49
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 无所谓
03:49 - 03:53
EN: When the channel is tight, Wedges are not reversals.
ZH: 窄通道里面不数3推楔形
03:53 - 03:57
EN: They’ll lead to bear flags and not bull trends.
ZH: 它们后面最多是反弹（熊旗），而不是上涨趋势
03:59 - 04:03
EN: On a smaller timeframe chart – this is a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 在更小的时间周期上——这是5分钟图
04:03 - 04:06
EN: but on a smaller timeframe chart, you can look at this and say,
ZH: 在更小的时间周期上，你会发现：
04:06 - 04:16
EN: “Ah, it’s a Wedge Bottom, and we’re getting a bear breakout
ZH: “啊，这是一个楔形底，加速向下跌破了” 75%的时候跌破失败，会涨回到通道的上沿，也就是这里
04:09 - 04:16
EN: below the Wedge Bottom.” 75% chance you’ll get a reversal up
ZH: “啊，这是一个楔形底，加速向下跌破了” 75%的时候跌破失败，会涨回到通道的上沿，也就是这里
04:13 - 04:16
EN: to the top of the channel, right here.
ZH: “啊，这是一个楔形底，加速向下跌破了” 75%的时候跌破失败，会涨回到通道的上沿，也就是这里
04:16 - 04:18
EN: You might be able to trade it on a 1-minute chart.
ZH: 也许在1分钟的图上能做多剥头皮
04:18 - 04:22
EN: I would recommend against it when the 5-minute channel is this strong.
ZH: 但我并不推荐这样做，因为5分钟的趋势太强了
04:22 - 04:29
EN: However, on the 5-minute chart, remember, the target from the reversal up
ZH: 不过我希望你们可以记住，加速突破通道失败之后， 反转上涨的第一个目标是测试通道的上沿
04:26 - 04:29
EN: from the bottom of the channel is a test of the top of the channel.
ZH: 不过我希望你们可以记住，加速突破通道失败之后， 反转上涨的第一个目标是测试通道的上沿
04:30 - 04:33
EN: If you’re buying on a stop above the high of this bull reversal bar,
ZH: 如果在这个反转阳线的上方用突破单买入
04:33 - 04:35
EN: you’re already at the target.
ZH: 你已经在目标位了
04:35 - 04:42
EN: Realistically, it’s probably not going to go much above your entry price,
ZH: 所以买入之后不会涨很多，更有可能会亏钱
04:40 - 04:42
EN: and therefore you’re probably going to lose money.
ZH: 所以买入之后不会涨很多，更有可能会亏钱
04:50 - 04:53
EN: In addition, whenever the market is in a strong bear trend,
ZH: 而且，只要市场处于强下降趋势
04:53 - 04:55
EN: you should not be buying at all.
ZH: 就根本不应该买入
04:55 - 05:02
EN: Some bulls will start buying with limit orders
ZH: 在看到大幅的反弹之后，一些多头会开始用限价单买入
04:58 - 05:02
EN: when you start getting pretty good size minor reversals.
ZH: 在看到大幅的反弹之后，一些多头会开始用限价单买入
05:02 - 05:07
EN: However, you should never be buying with a stop order
ZH: 在窄下降通道中，你绝对不应该用突破单买入
05:05 - 05:13
EN: when the market is in a Tight Channel because the market is only going
ZH: 在窄下降通道中，你绝对不应该用突破单买入 因为反弹最多只持续一两根K线，涨幅太小，赚不到钱
05:08 - 05:13
EN: to reverse up for a bar, maybe 2 bars, and not high enough up to make money.
ZH: 因为反弹最多只持续一两根K线，涨幅太小，赚不到钱
05:14 - 05:17
EN: Remember, it’s a small pullback channel.
ZH: 要知道，这是一个很窄的下降通道
05:17 - 05:18
EN: Pullbacks are small.
ZH: 反弹非常小
05:18 - 05:21
EN: If you’re buying with a stop, you’re buying reasonably far,
ZH: 如果你用突破单买入，就相当于是买在高位——
05:21 - 05:26
EN: relatively far above the low, and odds are it’s not going to go much higher.
ZH: 买在通道的上沿，几乎不会再有什么上涨了
Slide 004
Time: 05:30
Bilingual Transcript
05:35 - 05:38
EN: Every breakout becomes a channel,
ZH: 突破都会变成通道
05:38 - 05:41
EN: and every channel eventually becomes a Trading Range.
ZH: 通道最终都会变成震荡区间
05:41 - 05:48
EN: And sometimes when a market starts to enter a Trading Range
ZH: 有时当窄下降通道中出现震荡区间的时候， 多头会在跌到新低的时候买入
05:45 - 05:48
EN: in a very Tight Bear Channel, bulls will start to buy new lows
ZH: 有时当窄下降通道中出现震荡区间的时候， 多头会在跌到新低的时候买入
05:48 - 05:54
EN: and start to scale in because when you start to get bigger pullbacks
ZH: 并在更低的价格加仓，因为如果反弹开始变大、变得更频繁
05:52 - 05:58
EN: and more frequent pullbacks, the odds are the market
ZH: 并在更低的价格加仓，因为如果反弹开始变大、变得更频繁 那么市场大概率很快就会进入震荡区间
05:56 - 05:58
EN: will soon begin enter a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么市场大概率很快就会进入震荡区间
05:58 - 06:03
EN: And if it’s in a Trading Range, bulls can begin to make money
ZH: 如果确实是震荡区间的话，多头逢低买入并加仓，是可以赚到钱的
06:01 - 06:03
EN: by buying lows and scaling in lower.
ZH: 如果确实是震荡区间的话，多头逢低买入并加仓，是可以赚到钱的
06:05 - 06:09
EN: For example, we have a Double Bottom, 2 bull bars here,
ZH: 比如这里，有一个双底，这里有两根阳线
06:09 - 06:12
EN: 2 bull bars here, and we have a Micro Double Bottom here.
ZH: 左边也有两根阳线，而且有一个小双底
06:12 - 06:14
EN: We went up, we went up again.
ZH: 上涨、下跌，再次上涨
06:14 - 06:16
EN: We’re starting to get some two-sided trading.
ZH: 开始看到一些双向交易
06:16 - 06:19
EN: Some bulls will place limit orders to buy at the prior low
ZH: 一些多头会在前期低点挂限价买单
06:19 - 06:23
EN: and scale in more lower, and then use a wide stop.
ZH: 并在更低的价格加仓，使用较宽的初始止损
06:23 - 06:27
EN: Maybe a stop based upon a Measured Move down from this,
ZH: 比如放在这个小区间的MM目标位下方
06:27 - 06:28
EN: maybe a little bit more than that.
ZH: 或者放得更宽一些
06:32 - 06:36
EN: For example, the bars here are maybe 4 points tall.
ZH: 例如，假设这些K线的平均高度是4个点
06:36 - 06:37
EN: Reasonably big bars.
ZH: 相对比较大（注：对于当时2000点不到的指数而言）
06:37 - 06:43
EN: Instead of adding on 1 point below this low, a bull might buy more 2 points
ZH: 多头不会在下方1个点就急着加仓， 而是从2个点的地方开始加仓，
06:42 - 06:47
EN: below and then more again 4 points below and use a wide stop.
ZH: 多头不会在下方1个点就急着加仓， 而是从2个点的地方开始加仓， 然后4个点再次加仓，使用宽止损
06:56 - 07:04
EN: Normally you might risk 4 or 5 points, but when the bars are big like this
ZH: 通常需要承担四五个点的风险， 但当K线这么大、波动这么大的时候，风险可能会翻倍
07:00 - 07:04
EN: and the range is big like this, you have to risk maybe double that,
ZH: 通常需要承担四五个点的风险， 但当K线这么大、波动这么大的时候，风险可能会翻倍
07:04 - 07:09
EN: and instead of scaling in 1 point below or 2 points below with the bars big
ZH: 如果平时是每隔1个点就加仓，现在波动翻倍了
07:09 - 07:13
EN: and the range big, you maybe scale in 2 and 4 points below.
ZH: 所以要改成每隔2个点加仓
07:15 - 07:18
EN: Some bull will buy two or three times this way.
ZH: 一些多头会用这种方式加仓两到三次
07:19 - 07:21
EN: Would they buy five or ten times this way?
ZH: 他们会以这种方式加仓5次、10次吗？
07:21 - 07:22
EN: No.
ZH: 不会
07:23 - 07:25
EN: And if you’re going to have to scale in five times,
ZH: 如果需要加仓五次
07:25 - 07:29
EN: you have to assume that you’re buying in a strong bear trend,
ZH: 那么说明你在一个很强的下降趋势中买入
07:29 - 07:32
EN: not in a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 而不是在一个即将变成震荡区间的下跌波段中买入
07:32 - 07:35
EN: You have to assume that you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 你必须假设这样做会亏钱
07:36 - 07:40
EN: So let’s say you bought here and then scaled in a couple times
ZH: 假设你在这里买入，然后加仓两三次
07:40 - 07:42
EN: and used a stop 10 points down.
ZH: 把初始止损放在10个点外面
07:42 - 07:44
EN: How does the math work out?
ZH: 数学期望是多少？
07:49 - 07:51
EN: Are you going to let this stop be hit?
ZH: 你会让这个止损被打到吗？
07:51 - 07:55
EN: No, you’re only going to be using the stop as a catastrophic stop.
ZH: 不能打到，这只是一个防止意外的保护性止损
07:55 - 08:00
EN: You’re buying because you believe the market is going to go into a Trading Range
ZH: 你买入做多，是因为你相信市场即将进入震荡区间
08:00 - 08:03
EN: and that new lows are going to come back above breakout points.
ZH: 在创新低之后，会反弹到突破点的上方
08:03 - 08:06
EN: We broke to a new low, went above the breakout point.
ZH: 之前跌破创新低，然后反弹超过了突破点
08:06 - 08:07
EN: Broke to a new low.
ZH: 再次跌破创新低
08:07 - 08:12
EN: You’re betting that this breakout eventually will come back
ZH: 你押注最终会反弹到突破点的上方
08:11 - 08:12
EN: above this breakout point.
ZH: 你押注最终会反弹到突破点的上方
08:12 - 08:15
EN: But you know it could fall a number of bars first.
ZH: 但你知道可能会先下跌几根K线
08:15 - 08:17
EN: You’re going to use a wide stop.
ZH: 所以用比较宽的初始止损
08:18 - 08:20
EN: Again, you’re not planning on letting that stop be hit.
ZH: 再次强调，你并不打算让那个止损真的被碰到
08:20 - 08:25
EN: However, it’s a catastrophic stop, just in case the market keeps going down
ZH: 它的作用是防止意外，以防市场突然崩盘
08:25 - 08:28
EN: or in case you lose electricity or in case something happens,
ZH: 或者以防断电、以防一些突发事件，
08:28 - 08:31
EN: and you have to run out and handle a family emergency.
ZH: 那时你必须离开，去处理紧急情况
08:31 - 08:35
EN: You want to have some stop there to avoid a catastrophe,
ZH: 所以需要设置止损，防止灾难性的大亏
08:35 - 08:37
EN: in case the market just kept selling off all day.
ZH: 以防市场就这样下跌一整天
08:41 - 08:45
EN: These scale-in bulls know it’s in a bear trend; however,
ZH: 这些加仓的多头知道这是一个下降趋势；
08:45 - 08:50
EN: they’re hoping that this is a sign that the market is transitioning
ZH: 然而，他们认为市场正在过渡到震荡区间——确实如此
08:48 - 08:50
EN: into a Trading Range, and it did.
ZH: 然而，他们认为市场正在过渡到震荡区间——确实如此
08:50 - 08:52
EN: It did become a Trading Range.
ZH: 确实变成震荡区间了
08:52 - 08:54
EN: It took a lot of bars before it became clear,
ZH: 很多根K线之后，才看出它是震荡区间
08:54 - 08:59
EN: but some bulls will take a buy here, buy more 2 points lower, 4 points lower,
ZH: 但一些多头会在这里挂单买入，在下方2个点、4个点加仓
08:59 - 09:02
EN: and then place a limit order to get out at their original entry.
ZH: 然后把限价卖单挂在初始的入场价格
09:02 - 09:04
EN: They get out breakeven on their first trade,
ZH: 涨回来以后，初始仓位打平
09:04 - 09:09
EN: 2 points profit on their second, and then 4 points profit on their third.
ZH: 第1次加仓的部分赚两个点，第2次加仓的部分赚4个点，
Slide 005
Time: 09:15
Bilingual Transcript
09:18 - 09:24
EN: These bulls who bought at this low, 2 points lower
ZH: 他们最初在这个低点买入，在下方2个点、4个点加仓， 最终一共赚了6个点
09:21 - 09:24
EN: and 4 points lower, ended up with a total of 6 points profit.
ZH: 他们最初在这个低点买入，在下方2个点、4个点加仓， 最终一共赚了6个点
09:33 - 09:36
EN: On the other hand, if their stop was hit and let’s say
ZH: 然而，如果止损真的被打到
09:36 - 09:41
EN: they bought more two more times – so let’s say they bought a first entry,
ZH: 假设他们又加仓了一次（总共买了4次）——第1次
09:41 - 09:43
EN: a second entry, a third entry, a fourth entry
ZH: 第2次，第3次，第4次
09:43 - 09:48
EN: - and then their stop was hit, they would lose a total of 28 points.
ZH: 然后被一起止损，总的亏损是28个点
Slide 006
Time: 09:50
Bilingual Transcript
09:54 - 10:00
EN: That means these scale-in bulls, the bulls who were buying
ZH: 也就是说，那些逢低买入并每隔两个点就加仓的多头， 冒着最多亏损28个点的风险
09:57 - 10:00
EN: and scaling in lower, were risking 28 points.
ZH: 也就是说，那些逢低买入并每隔两个点就加仓的多头， 冒着最多亏损28个点的风险
10:00 - 10:04
EN: It turns out in this particular case they made 6 points,
ZH: 在这段行情里最终赚了6个点
10:04 - 10:06
EN: but they were risking 28 points.
ZH: 但他们冒着28个点的风险
10:06 - 10:08
EN: And how can the math possibly work out for that?
ZH: 从数学的角度，这怎么可能说得过去？
10:12 - 10:16
EN: You need a positive Trader’s Equation to take a trade.
ZH: 想要赚钱，需要数学期望为正
10:16 - 10:19
EN: Scaling in increases your probability, which is good,
ZH: 加仓增加了胜率，这是好的
10:19 - 10:21
EN: but it also increases your risk.
ZH: 但它也让风险大幅增加了
10:27 - 10:35
EN: However, you probably need a probability of 80% or more to risk 28 points
ZH: 如果冒着28个点的风险，只赚6个点， 就需要超过90%的胜率
10:32 - 10:35
EN: and end up making only 6 points on the trade.
ZH: 如果冒着28个点的风险，只赚6个点， 就需要超过90%的胜率
10:39 - 10:46
EN: You pay for a great probability trade with bad risk/reward,
ZH: 为了提高胜率，把盈亏比变得非常糟糕——利润小，或者风险大
10:42 - 10:46
EN: which usually means the reward is small and/or the risk is big.
ZH: 为了提高胜率，把盈亏比变得非常糟糕——利润小，或者风险大
10:46 - 10:49
EN: In this particular case, you get both.
ZH: 而这里是利润小，而且风险大
10:49 - 10:54
EN: You have a small reward relative to your risk, and the risk is relatively large.
ZH: 相对来说，利润非常小，风险非常大
11:01 - 11:02
EN: Now, how can it work out?
ZH: 真的可以这样做吗？
11:02 - 11:05
EN: Well, if you’re using that wide stop,
ZH: 如果你设置了10个点的宽止损
11:05 - 11:09
EN: most of your losses are going to be less than 28 points.
ZH: 绝大部分亏损是小于28个点的
11:09 - 11:13
EN: Sometimes you’ll take the buy at that low and it will immediately go up,
ZH: 有时你的限价买单成交之后，市场立刻上涨
11:13 - 11:15
EN: and you’ll make 2 points immediately.
ZH: 很快就能赚到两个点（不需要加仓）
11:16 - 11:19
EN: Many of your winners are going to be more than 2 points.
ZH: 其中很多盈利是大于两个点的
11:19 - 11:24
EN: You might decide to hold on and maybe make 4 points or 6 points.
ZH: 如果你决定继续持有，最后也许能赚4个点、6个点
11:25 - 11:34
EN: Also, if the market’s going down, a lot of times you will not scale in
ZH: 此外，如果继续下跌，当你认为市场明显是单边下跌的时候， 你根本就不会加仓，而是直接提前止损
11:30 - 11:34
EN: if you think the market is clearly Always In Short or strongly short.
ZH: 此外，如果继续下跌，当你认为市场明显是单边下跌的时候， 你根本就不会加仓，而是直接提前止损
11:34 - 11:38
EN: For example, if you have 3 strong bear bars closing on their lows,
ZH: 例如，如果有连续3根强势的阴线收在最低
11:38 - 11:42
EN: the odds are the market’s going lower and you will not take the second buy,
ZH: 市场大概率会继续下跌，所以你就不会加仓
11:42 - 11:46
EN: and you might in fact exit the first buy with a 2 point loss.
ZH: 你会直接止损，亏两个点离场
Slide 007
Time: 11:50
Bilingual Transcript
11:57 - 12:02
EN: This is a very Tight Bear Channel, but if it’s a very Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 这个下降通道非常窄，如果它很宽的话
12:02 - 12:07
EN: a skilled trader can win 90% of the time in a situation like this,
ZH: 一个剥头皮的高手在宽通道中可以拥有90%的胜率
12:07 - 12:10
EN: and his average win might be considerably bigger.
ZH: 而且平均的利润要远大于两个点
12:10 - 12:12
EN: It might be 8 points, 6 points.
ZH: 他可能赚得到6个点、8个点
12:12 - 12:13
EN: Let’s say it’s 8 points.
ZH: 假设是8个点
12:13 - 12:16
EN: If he takes 10 trades and he wins 9 times,
ZH: 如果他做了10笔交易，其中9笔盈利
12:16 - 12:19
EN: that would be a 72 point total profit.
ZH: 最终总的利润是72个点
12:19 - 12:30
EN: If he gets one loss – remember, I’m talking about winning 90% of the time
ZH: 在亏损的那一笔交易中，就算他真的亏了28个点， 也仍然远小于72个点的利润
12:24 - 12:30
EN: in a Broad Channel – his one loss of 28 points is far less
ZH: 在亏损的那一笔交易中，就算他真的亏了28个点， 也仍然远小于72个点的利润
12:28 - 12:30
EN: than his gain of 72 points.
ZH: 在亏损的那一笔交易中，就算他真的亏了28个点， 也仍然远小于72个点的利润
12:35 - 12:37
EN: In a Tight Channel, that’s not the case.
ZH: 在窄通道中并不能这样做
12:37 - 12:42
EN: In a Broad Channel it’s much easier to scale into longs and make money.
ZH: 在宽下降通道中，多头通过加仓的方式更容易赚到钱
12:43 - 12:44
EN: It’s much, much easier.
ZH: 比窄下降通道容易得多
12:44 - 12:47
EN: The probability of making money is much greater,
ZH: 赚钱的概率要更大
12:47 - 12:50
EN: the rewards are bigger, and the risk is smaller.
ZH: 而且利润更大、风险更小
12:50 - 12:55
EN: In a Tight Channel, traders often enter, and they quickly get disappointed,
ZH: 在窄下降通道中，多头入场之后，往往很快就感到失望
12:55 - 12:57
EN: and then they exit around breakeven.
ZH: 然后大约打平离场
12:59 - 13:04
EN: For example, let’s say you bought this low and the channel is very, very tight.
ZH: 例如，假设你在前期低点挂单买入，下降通道非常窄
13:04 - 13:06
EN: You bought more here, you bought more here, and you’re thinking,
ZH: 你在这里加仓，继续加仓，然后你心想：
13:06 - 13:11
EN: “Gosh, this is worse than I thought,” and you decide that instead of trying
ZH: “我靠，没想到空头这么强” 于是你放弃了原本的计划——
13:11 - 13:14
EN: to get out breakeven on your first entry and with a profit on your second
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
13:14 - 13:20
EN: and third entry, you’ll find your average entry price
ZH: 而是会想要在总的平均成本价格打平离场
13:17 - 13:20
EN: and just try to get out at your average entry price,
ZH: 而是会想要在总的平均成本价格打平离场
13:20 - 13:24
EN: and you’ll be exiting to avoid a loss rather than to make a profit.
ZH: 你觉得能不亏损就谢天谢地了，不再期待这笔交易能赚钱
13:29 - 13:35
EN: The average win, scaling in in a Tight Channel, might only be 2 to 4 points.
ZH: 在窄通道中加仓的平均收益可能只有2~4个点
13:41 - 13:49
EN: In this particular case, even if you win 90% of the time, 80% of the time,
ZH: 在这种行情下，就算胜率有80%，90%， 也几乎赚不到钱，所以不值得这么做
13:46 - 13:49
EN: you’re barely making enough money to make it worthwhile.
ZH: 在这种行情下，就算胜率有80%，90%， 也几乎赚不到钱，所以不值得这么做
13:49 - 13:55
EN: Even great traders will rarely buy below bars
ZH: 在窄下降通道里，再厉害的交易者也很难用这种方法赚钱
13:53 - 13:55
EN: and scale in when the channel is tight.
ZH: 在窄下降通道里，再厉害的交易者也很难用这种方法赚钱
13:55 - 13:58
EN: That’s the exact opposite of what you should be doing.
ZH: 这和你应该做的事情恰恰相反
13:58 - 14:02
EN: You should be selling above bars, betting that the reversals will fail.
ZH: 你应该在K线上方挂限价卖单，押注反转会失败
14:02 - 14:14
EN: However, if you are able to do it and use an appropriate stop and scale in,
ZH: 然而，想要做多的话，你必须要设置正确的止损、正确地加仓， 并且保证总的风险完全在承受范围之内
14:08 - 14:14
EN: and the risk is not greater than a size
ZH: 然而，想要做多的话，你必须要设置正确的止损、正确地加仓， 并且保证总的风险完全在承受范围之内
14:11 - 14:14
EN: that you can comfortably lose, then you can do it.
ZH: 然而，想要做多的话，你必须要设置正确的止损、正确地加仓， 并且保证总的风险完全在承受范围之内
14:14 - 14:18
EN: Theoretically it’s possible; in the real world, it’s a bad idea.
ZH: 理论上也许可行，但实际上是很糟糕的做法
14:18 - 14:21
EN: You have to do it perfectly just to make a little amount of money,
ZH: 即使做到完美，也只能赚一点点钱
14:21 - 14:24
EN: and if you do it anything less than perfect, you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 但凡有一点不完美，就会亏很多钱
14:24 - 14:26
EN: So it’s a bad strategy.
ZH: 所以这是一个糟糕的策略
14:26 - 14:30
EN: So do not buy lows when you see a Tight Channel.
ZH: 因此，当你看到窄下降通道时，不要抄底
Slide 008
Time: 14:35
Bilingual Transcript
14:35 - 14:41
EN: I always pay attention in a bear trend to whether
ZH: 在下降趋势中，我总是观察多头能不能赚钱
14:39 - 14:41
EN: or not the bulls can make money.
ZH: 在下降趋势中，我总是观察多头能不能赚钱
14:41 - 14:52
EN: If they can make money, then the bear trend is probably transitioning
ZH: 如果多头能赚钱，那么下降趋势可能正在转变成震荡区间， 那个时候我才会开始低买、高卖、剥头皮
14:44 - 14:52
EN: into a Trading Range, and then I will start to look to buy low,
ZH: 如果多头能赚钱，那么下降趋势可能正在转变成震荡区间， 那个时候我才会开始低买、高卖、剥头皮
14:48 - 14:52
EN: sell high, and scalp, in addition to selling.
ZH: 如果多头能赚钱，那么下降趋势可能正在转变成震荡区间， 那个时候我才会开始低买、高卖、剥头皮
14:52 - 14:55
EN: Obviously if it’s still in a bear trend, I want to be selling.
ZH: 当然，如果市场仍然处于下降趋势，我会做空
14:55 - 14:59
EN: But I can also add buying as well.
ZH: 但同时也可以做多剥头皮
Slide 009
Time: 15:00
Bilingual Transcript
15:03 - 15:08
EN: If a bull bought this low and scaled in lower, his stop is going to get hit.
ZH: 如果有人在这个低点挂单买入，并且在下方加仓， 他的止损会被打到，会亏钱
15:07 - 15:08
EN: He lost money.
ZH: 如果有人在这个低点挂单买入，并且在下方加仓， 他的止损会被打到，会亏钱
15:08 - 15:12
EN: If he buys any of these lows and scales in, he’s probably going to lose money.
ZH: 如果他在这些低点买入并加仓，大概率也是亏钱的
15:13 - 15:16
EN: If he bought this low, he’d get filled here.
ZH: 如果他在这个低点挂单买入，订单会在这里成交
15:16 - 15:17
EN: He was able to make a scalp.
ZH: 他能赚到一笔剥头皮的利润
15:17 - 15:21
EN: Some of the bulls would therefore buy additional lows.
ZH: 于是一些多头会继续在前一个低点挂限价买单
15:21 - 15:23
EN: With 2 or 3 big bear bars, I would not do it.
ZH: 如果左边有两三根大阴线，我就不会这么做
15:23 - 15:27
EN: But if a bull did it and he used a wide enough stop, he would avoid a loss
ZH: 但假设一个多头这么做了，他使用了足够宽的止损，
15:27 - 15:30
EN: and he probably could make money, at least in theory.
ZH: 他能够避免亏损，甚至能赚钱，至少理论上是这样
15:30 - 15:35
EN: This is a strong enough minor reversal – it went back above the breakout point
ZH: 这里的反弹幅度足够大，回到了突破点的上方
15:35 - 15:38
EN: - to make bulls start buying prior lows.
ZH: 于是多头开始在前期低点挂限价买单
15:38 - 15:40
EN: They’ll buy this low for a scalp up.
ZH: 他们会在这个低点挂单买入，做剥头皮交易
15:40 - 15:42
EN: They’ll buy this low for a scalp up.
ZH: 在这个低点挂单买入，做剥头皮交易
15:49 - 15:51
EN: A bear breakout, but the bars are not all that big,
ZH: 向下跌破，但阴线的体积并不大
15:51 - 15:54
EN: and after the bear breakout we got a bull bar,
ZH: 而且跌破之后是一根阳线
15:54 - 15:56
EN: and then we have a second bull bar here closing on its high.
ZH: 这里又有一根阳线，它收在最高
15:57 - 16:00
EN: We’re getting tails below bars and we’re getting reversals.
ZH: K线底部开始出现下影线，开始反转上涨
16:00 - 16:02
EN: Bear breakout, reversal.
ZH: 空头突破，反转
16:02 - 16:03
EN: Bear breakout, reversal.
ZH: 空头突破，反转
16:03 - 16:05
EN: So two-sided trading.
ZH: 此时做多做空都可以
16:05 - 16:07
EN: The breakouts are getting weaker
ZH: 突破变得越来越弱
16:07 - 16:10
EN: - a sign that the market might be transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是市场正在转变为震荡区间的信号
16:18 - 16:24
EN: I would say this is not easy for the bulls to make money,
ZH: 我认为，在这里逢低买入，对多头而言赚钱还是有难度的
16:22 - 16:24
EN: buying here, buying here, buying here.
ZH: 我认为，在这里逢低买入，对多头而言赚钱还是有难度的
16:24 - 16:26
EN: However, if I did not buy – which I would not
ZH: 我不会在这种行情中做多
16:27 - 16:29
EN: - and then I see the bulls ultimately did make money,
ZH: ——但我发现，限价单多头最终确实能赚到钱了
16:29 - 16:31
EN: and that’s the second time they made money
ZH: 这是他们第2次赚钱了
16:31 - 16:34
EN: - they made money buying this low as well – then I would start thinking
ZH: 之前在这个低点挂单买入也赚钱了； 然后我会开始考虑
16:34 - 16:44
EN: that the market is probably transitioning from a Tight Bear Channel
ZH: 市场很可能正在从下降通道演变为震荡区间， 所以除了做空以外，在前期低点挂单做多也是可以的
16:38 - 16:44
EN: into a Trading Range, and in addition to taking shorts,
ZH: 市场很可能正在从下降通道演变为震荡区间， 所以除了做空以外，在前期低点挂单做多也是可以的
16:42 - 16:44
EN: I’ll start looking to buy at prior lows.
ZH: 市场很可能正在从下降通道演变为震荡区间， 所以除了做空以外，在前期低点挂单做多也是可以的
16:46 - 16:49
EN: The bulls know the market’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 多头知道市场仍然处于单边下跌
16:49 - 16:51
EN: All the way through here, it’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 一直到这里，仍然是下降趋势
16:52 - 16:56
EN: But the bulls are now starting to make money, and that’s a sign
ZH: 但多头现在开始赚钱了，这是一个信号
16:56 - 16:58
EN: that the market is transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 表明市场正在往震荡区间过渡
Slide 010
Time: 17:05
Bilingual Transcript
17:05 - 17:07
EN: Bear channel, very tight.
ZH: 下降通道，非常窄
17:08 - 17:11
EN: Now if you buy this low, maybe you’d make a little scalp.
ZH: 如果你在这个低点挂单买入，也许能做一笔小的剥头皮
17:11 - 17:14
EN: If you buy this low, looks like you’d be trapped.
ZH: 如果在这个低点挂单买入，看起来会被套牢
17:14 - 17:16
EN: There’s a gap between this high and that low.
ZH: 这个高点和那个低点之间有缺口
17:17 - 17:19
EN: Buy this low, maybe you’d make a little bit of money.
ZH: 在这个低点挂单买入，也许能赚一点钱
17:19 - 17:21
EN: Buy this low, you’re trapped.
ZH: 在这个低点挂单买入，会被套牢
17:21 - 17:27
EN: Very difficult for bulls to make money,
ZH: 对多头来说，就算用宽止损并加仓，也很难赚到钱
17:23 - 17:27
EN: even scaling in low and using wide stops.
ZH: 对多头来说，就算用宽止损并加仓，也很难赚到钱
17:27 - 17:29
EN: And whenever you look at the market
ZH: 当你看盘的时候
17:29 - 17:32
EN: - let’s say you just turned on the screen right here.
ZH: ——假设这个时候你刚刚打开电脑
17:32 - 17:36
EN: First thing you look at, you say, “Well, it’s a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 你的第一反应是：“嗯，下降通道非常窄，我只想做空”
17:35 - 17:42
EN: I only want to sell.” You might say, “Well, maybe I can buy,
ZH: 你的第一反应是：“嗯，下降通道非常窄，我只想做空” 你也可能会想：“也许做多也可以， 不过让我先看一下，多头能不能轻松地赚钱”
17:39 - 17:42
EN: but let me first see if it’s easy for bulls to make money,”
ZH: 你也可能会想：“也许做多也可以， 不过让我先看一下，多头能不能轻松地赚钱”
17:42 - 17:44
EN: and you start seeing gaps.
ZH: 然后你看到有很多缺口
17:44 - 17:47
EN: The pullbacks are only 1 bar, 1 bar, 1 bar.
ZH: 每次反弹只有1根K线，1根K线，1根K线
17:47 - 17:53
EN: Very difficult for bulls to make money, and because it’s difficult
ZH: 对多头来说，做多很难赚到钱，所以你不应该考虑买入
17:50 - 17:53
EN: for bulls to make money, you should not try to buy.
ZH: 对多头来说，做多很难赚到钱，所以你不应该考虑买入
17:53 - 17:54
EN: You should only be selling.
ZH: 只做空，不做多
17:54 - 17:57
EN: Especially, you should sell every attempt to reverse up,
ZH: 你尤其应该在每次反弹的时候卖出做空
17:57 - 17:59
EN: betting that they’ll fail.
ZH: 押注反转都会失败
18:04 - 18:09
EN: Here, if a bull bought this low, it turns out he could make a 1 point profit,
ZH: 如果一个多头在这个低点挂单买入，最终可以赚到1个点
18:09 - 18:12
EN: and maybe he’d have to risk a few points to be safe,
ZH: 但需要承担好几个点的风险
18:13 - 18:16
EN: but he did theoretically make money buying at that low.
ZH: 理论上在那个低点挂单买入确实能赚到钱
18:20 - 18:28
EN: Let’s say a bull therefore buys at this low right here and scales in lower.
ZH: 如果一个多头因此在这个低点挂单买入， 并且在下方1个点、2个点加仓
18:26 - 18:28
EN: 1 point lower, 2 points lower.
ZH: 如果一个多头因此在这个低点挂单买入， 并且在下方1个点、2个点加仓
18:33 - 18:36
EN: It had to go above the breakout point, his original entry,
ZH: 反弹必须超过突破点——即他的初始入场点
18:36 - 18:41
EN: for him to get out breakeven on his first trade
ZH: 这样他才能做到初始仓位打平、两次加仓的部分赚钱
18:39 - 18:41
EN: and with a profit on his second and third entry.
ZH: 这样他才能做到初始仓位打平、两次加仓的部分赚钱
18:41 - 18:42
EN: But look what it did.
ZH: 然而仔细看这里的价格行为
18:42 - 18:47
EN: It reached his entry price at that low and did not go above it,
ZH: 刚好碰到了他的初始入场价格，但没有能多涨1个tick
18:47 - 18:50
EN: and therefore he could not get out breakeven on this trade.
ZH: 所以他的限价卖单大概率无法顺利成交
18:50 - 18:53
EN: And if it starts to turn down, he’ll get out,
ZH: 在市场恢复下跌的时候，他需要止损离场
18:53 - 18:57
EN: like maybe below the low of this bar – which is a loss on this entry,
ZH: 比如在这根K线的低点下方——初始仓位亏损
18:57 - 19:00
EN: a profit on this entry, breakeven on this entry.
ZH: 第1次加仓打平，第2次加仓小赚，
19:00 - 19:03
EN: He’d get out basically breakeven on the trade.
ZH: 总体来说是一笔打平的交易
19:03 - 19:10
EN: However, he did not make money, and that is a warning to anyone looking to buy.
ZH: 这样做没有赚到钱，这对于所有想要做多的人来说是一个警告：别买！
19:08 - 19:10
EN: Stop buying.
ZH: 这样做没有赚到钱，这对于所有想要做多的人来说是一个警告：别买！
19:10 - 19:12
EN: Bulls are getting trapped and not making money.
ZH: 多头被套牢了，没有赚钱
19:13 - 19:17
EN: If the market is over here and I turn on my screen for the first time
ZH: 如果我打开电脑的时候，市场正好走到这里
19:17 - 19:25
EN: and I look at it, one of the first things I’m going to look at is whether
ZH: 我要关注的第一件事，就是限价单多头是否能通过加仓的方式赚钱
19:21 - 19:25
EN: or not the limit order bulls are making money scaling in below prior bars.
ZH: 我要关注的第一件事，就是限价单多头是否能通过加仓的方式赚钱
19:25 - 19:29
EN: And when I see that they’re trapped, I know the market is probably going lower,
ZH: 如果我看到他们被套牢了，那么我就知道大概率还会继续下跌
19:30 - 19:32
EN: so I’m only looking to sell.
ZH: 所以我只考虑做空
19:38 - 19:42
EN: In actual fact, theoretically if a person did buy
ZH: 事实上，如果一个多头在这个低点挂单买入， 他的订单会在这里成交
19:40 - 19:42
EN: at this low, they get filled here.
ZH: 事实上，如果一个多头在这个低点挂单买入， 他的订单会在这里成交
19:42 - 19:47
EN: Buy more 1 point lower, buy more 1 point lower, he would’ve had a 1 point loss.
ZH: 在下方1个点、2个点加仓，如果最后在这根阳线下方离场的话
19:47 - 19:55
EN: If he got out here below this bull bar, he would’ve had a 1 point loss
ZH: 他的初始仓位亏1个点，第1次加仓的部分亏2个ticks， 第2次加仓的部分赚1个点
19:51 - 19:55
EN: on his first entry, a 2 tick loss on his second, and a 1 point profit
ZH: 他的初始仓位亏1个点，第1次加仓的部分亏2个ticks， 第2次加仓的部分赚1个点
19:55 - 20:01
EN: on his third, and his total for the three entries would be a 2 tick loss.
ZH: 所以3次买入总共亏损了2个ticks（注：以及手续费）
20:10 - 20:14
EN: If you’re thinking about buying and you start looking at the screen over here
ZH: 如果你在考虑买入，但是看看这里和这里的行情
20:14 - 20:20
EN: or over here, you look back at things like this and you say,
ZH: 你会感叹：“兄弟啊，多头想要赚钱也太难了吧！”
20:17 - 20:20
EN: “Boy, it’s really difficult for the bulls to make money!”
ZH: 你会感叹：“兄弟啊，多头想要赚钱也太难了吧！”
20:20 - 20:23
EN: You have to conclude that the bears are very strong,
ZH: 所以你必须判断出空头非常强壮
20:23 - 20:26
EN: and you should stop trying to buy.
ZH: 不要再想着做多了
20:26 - 20:29
EN: If it’s too difficult for the bulls to make money
ZH: 如果对多头来说赚钱太难
20:29 - 20:33
EN: - you can see these bulls only made 1 point, these bulls lost money,
ZH: ——可以看到，这里多头只赚了1个点，而这里多头亏钱
20:33 - 20:37
EN: we’re getting gaps, we have a gap here – do not buy.
ZH: 空头制造了缺口，这里有缺口——那就不要买入
20:44 - 20:47
EN: As a bear, the market’s clearly in a bear trend.
ZH: 做空不香吗？市场显然处于下降趋势中
20:47 - 20:47
EN: I’m a bear.
ZH: 我是空头
20:47 - 20:49
EN: I’m looking to sell.
ZH: 我要做空
20:49 - 20:53
EN: I also want to pay attention to whether or not the bulls can make money,
ZH: 我时刻关注多头是否能赚钱
20:53 - 20:56
EN: and if I see the bulls having a very difficult time to make money
ZH: 如果我发现多头很难赚钱
20:56 - 21:00
EN: and if I see them losing money, that makes me more eager to sell.
ZH: 如果我看到多头在亏钱，就会更积极地做空
21:00 - 21:04
EN: So if I’m flat, I have to get short, and I’ll sell for any reason.
ZH: 假设目前我没有仓位，我一定会入场做空， 不管是做波段还是剥头皮
21:04 - 21:08
EN: The odds are if the bulls cannot make money, we’re going lower.
ZH: 既然多头赚不到钱，说明继续下跌的概率很大
21:08 - 21:10
EN: Probably quite a bit lower.
ZH: 至少会再跌一些
Slide 011
Time: 21:15
Bilingual Transcript
21:18 - 21:23
EN: The bulls at this point saw how hard it was for the bulls earlier to make money,
ZH: 此时，多头发现买入根本赚不到钱
21:23 - 21:27
EN: and therefore they become unwilling to buy, and the result
ZH: 于是他们不愿意再尝试了，
21:27 - 21:31
EN: is the reversals are very small and we have to go down a lot more
ZH: 就导致没有什么反弹，市场必须下跌非常多
21:31 - 21:35
EN: before the bulls will find a price low enough that they’ll buy.
ZH: 最终才会有人开始愿意买入
21:43 - 21:48
EN: With fewer bulls willing to buy, the chance of a bear breakout becomes higher.
ZH: 由于愿意买入的多头越来越少，向下跌破的可能性就变高了
21:48 - 21:53
EN: Again, a bull buying at this low, scaling in lower, barely made money.
ZH: 同样，如果多头在这个低点挂单买入，并且在下方加仓， 很难赚到钱
21:53 - 21:56
EN: He made a 1 point scalp on his second entry, breakeven on his first.
ZH: 加仓的部分赚1个点，初始仓位打平
21:56 - 21:58
EN: We only got a 2 bar pullback.
ZH: 反弹只持续了两根K线
22:03 - 22:05
EN: Eventually the bulls stop buying.
ZH: 最终多头停止买入
22:06 - 22:09
EN: It’s repeatedly very difficult for them to make money,
ZH: 对他们来说，赚钱始终非常困难
22:09 - 22:11
EN: and if the bulls stop buying,
ZH: 如果多头不再买入
22:11 - 22:14
EN: you can quickly get a bear breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 那么很快就会出现大阴线，并且有跟随
22:14 - 22:21
EN: And once you get that, you’re probably going to get
ZH: 一旦这样向下跌破，就至少会有小的第2段下跌—— 比如1，反弹，2
22:16 - 22:21
EN: at least a small second leg down – maybe Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 一旦这样向下跌破，就至少会有小的第2段下跌—— 比如1，反弹，2
22:21 - 22:22
EN: Very Tight Channel.
ZH: 通道很窄
22:22 - 22:25
EN: More likely Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 更有可能是大的1，反弹，2段
22:25 - 22:27
EN: That’s the minimum goal.
ZH: 那是空头的最低目标
Slide 012
Time: 22:30
Bilingual Transcript
22:33 - 22:36
EN: Some bulls who bought here might hold, hoping for a test
ZH: 一些在这里买入的多头可能会继续持有，
22:36 - 22:38
EN: of this Lower High or that Lower High.
ZH: 希望市场能反弹测试这个或这个高点
22:38 - 22:41
EN: But if they did, look what happened.
ZH: 如果继续持有的话，会发生什么？
22:41 - 22:46
EN: We have a Low 1 – this bar fell below that bar’s low – and now we have a Low 2.
ZH: 这里是低1——这根K线跌破这根K线是低1； 现在是低2
22:46 - 22:51
EN: Not only a Low 2, but the sell signal bar is a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 不仅是低2，而且做空信号K是阴线收在最低
22:51 - 22:56
EN: Any bull who bought for any reason, if he sees a Low 2
ZH: 不管多头在哪里买入，当他看到窄下降通道中的低2，
22:55 - 23:02
EN: and a very Tight Bear Channel, and the sell signal bar is a bear bar
ZH: 不管多头在哪里买入，当他看到窄下降通道中的低2， 而且做空信号K是阴线收在最低，多头就会止损离场
22:59 - 23:02
EN: closing on its low, the bulls are going to sell.
ZH: 而且做空信号K是阴线收在最低，多头就会止损离场
23:03 - 23:06
EN: The bears see that as well, and they’re going to sell.
ZH: 同时，空头当然也会在它的下方卖出做空
23:06 - 23:08
EN: And with the bulls and bears selling,
ZH: 当多头和空头都在卖出时
23:08 - 23:11
EN: pretty good chance you’ll get a breakout and a profitable trade.
ZH: 有很大的概率会向下跌破，带来一笔盈利的波段
23:12 - 23:16
EN: That’s one of the reasons why Low 2 sell signals work so well,
ZH: 这就是为什么低2做空入场点这么好的原因之一
23:16 - 23:18
EN: especially in very strong bear trends.
ZH: 尤其是在非常强的下降趋势中
23:18 - 23:20
EN: The bulls give up.
ZH: 多头放弃了
23:20 - 23:23
EN: They’ll hold for one attempt to resume the bear trend,
ZH: 下降趋势第1次尝试恢复的时候，他们还能坚持一下
23:23 - 23:25
EN: but they will not hold for a second,
ZH: 但他们不会坚持第2次
23:25 - 23:28
EN: especially if there’s a strong bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 尤其如果有强势的阴线收在最低
23:36 - 23:40
EN: Why do we have this big bear bar closing on its low
ZH: 大阴线收在最低，而且有好的跟随，这是怎么形成的呢？
23:39 - 23:40
EN: and then a follow-through bar?
ZH: 大阴线收在最低，而且有好的跟随，这是怎么形成的呢？
23:40 - 23:47
EN: Because some bulls continue to hold, and they’re giving up.
ZH: 因为一些多头还没有离场，现在向下跌破，此时他们彻底放弃了
23:44 - 23:47
EN: This is the final bulls giving up on these bars.
ZH: 因为一些多头还没有离场，现在向下跌破，此时他们彻底放弃了
23:50 - 23:52
EN: You have a breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 大阴线跌破，有跟随阴线
23:52 - 23:53
EN: The bulls are giving up.
ZH: 多头正在放弃
23:53 - 23:57
EN: The bears will sell, betting that any reversal up will be minor
ZH: 空头会大量卖出，押注任何上涨都只是小反转
23:57 - 23:59
EN: and we’ll get at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段下跌
24:00 - 24:04
EN: The bulls are selling out of their longs on these closes,
ZH: 在阴线收盘的时候，多头会止损离场
24:04 - 24:07
EN: and the bears will sell those closes as well.
ZH: 空头也会在它们的收盘卖出做空
24:14 - 24:19
EN: Now, I said the odds were, we’d get a second leg down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 我说的第2段下跌是最低目标——1，反弹，2
24:19 - 24:22
EN: You might get three, four, five legs down,
ZH: 完全有可能会有第3、第4、第5段下跌
24:22 - 24:24
EN: but at a minimum you’re going to get a second leg down.
ZH: 但最低目标是第2段下跌
24:24 - 24:28
EN: And because of that, some bulls will look
ZH: 因此，一些多头想要在第2段下跌之后抄底
24:26 - 24:28
EN: to buy a reversal up from that second leg.
ZH: 因此，一些多头想要在第2段下跌之后抄底
24:34 - 24:36
EN: Now, what do these bulls do?
ZH: 这些多头会怎么做？
24:36 - 24:42
EN: Their thought is, okay,
ZH: 他们的想法是：之前多头在这个低点挂限价买单
24:38 - 24:42
EN: there were limit order bulls who bought below this low.
ZH: 他们的想法是：之前多头在这个低点挂限价买单
24:42 - 24:44
EN: I don’t have them indicated here.
ZH: （这里我没有把成交的框框画出来）
24:44 - 24:47
EN: They’re confident that eventually we’ll get back above this low,
ZH: 他们相信最终会反弹到这个低点上方
24:47 - 24:49
EN: even if we go down a long way.
ZH: 尽管先下跌了这么多
24:50 - 24:54
EN: Some of these bulls will buy more above a bull bar,
ZH: 其中一些多头会在一根阳线上方加仓
24:54 - 24:58
EN: betting that it’ll be the start of a reversal back above this breakout point
ZH: 押注会开始反弹，回到这个突破点上方
24:58 - 25:01
EN: and then they can get out breakeven on their first buy right here
ZH: 然后他们的初始仓位就可以打平
25:01 - 25:03
EN: and then with a profit on their lower buy.
ZH: 下方加仓的部分能够赚钱
25:04 - 25:05
EN: Here’s a bull bar.
ZH: 这里有一根阳线
25:05 - 25:07
EN: Are they going to buy above this bar?
ZH: 他们会在这根K线上方买入吗？
25:07 - 25:09
EN: No, because we just had a bear breakout,
ZH: 不会，因为左边是强势的空头突破
25:09 - 25:11
EN: and the odds are we’ll get a second leg down.
ZH: 至少会有第2段下跌
25:11 - 25:17
EN: After a second leg down, the bulls who bought at this low will buy
ZH: 在第2段下跌后，之前买入被套牢的多头会在阳线上方加仓
25:16 - 25:23
EN: above a bull bar and then try to get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 在第2段下跌后，之前买入被套牢的多头会在阳线上方加仓 希望能让初始仓位打平——确实成功了—— 然后加仓的部分可以赚到剥头皮的利润
25:20 - 25:23
EN: - which they were able to – and then with a scalper’s profit on their second.
ZH: 希望能让初始仓位打平——确实成功了—— 然后加仓的部分可以赚到剥头皮的利润
25:24 - 25:28
EN: Other bulls who did not take any of these buys know
ZH: 一些多头尽管之前没有买入
25:28 - 25:31
EN: that scale-in bulls will buy above this bull bar.
ZH: 但他们知道被套牢的多头会在这根阳线上方加仓
25:31 - 25:33
EN: Two legs down and a bull bar.
ZH: 因为已经有两段下跌，做多信号K是阳线
25:33 - 25:38
EN: And these bulls will also try to get out around that low, and guess what?
ZH: 于是他们也在这里买入，并且在前期低点止盈离场
25:38 - 25:44
EN: The bears know the bulls who bought here and scaled in lower are going to sell
ZH: 空头知道，那些在这里挂单买入并逢低加仓的多头， 会在价格反弹回来的时候离场，
25:44 - 25:52
EN: if it gets back there, and the bulls who only bought here
ZH: 之前没有买入，直接在这根阳线上方买入的多头，目标位也是这里
25:47 - 25:52
EN: and not earlier are going to try to get out at that low as well,
ZH: 之前没有买入，直接在这根阳线上方买入的多头，目标位也是这里
25:52 - 25:58
EN: and therefore the bears will sell here because they know the bulls are selling,
ZH: 所以空头会在这里挂限价卖单做空，至少做一笔剥头皮交易
25:56 - 25:58
EN: and the bears will try to scalp a short.
ZH: 所以空头会在这里挂限价卖单做空，至少做一笔剥头皮交易
Slide 013
Time: 26:05
Bilingual Transcript
26:07 - 26:11
EN: A bull reversal bar, bull bar.
ZH: 尽管是一根反转阳线，但不是好的买入机会
26:09 - 26:11
EN: Terrible for the bulls.
ZH: 尽管是一根反转阳线，但不是好的买入机会
26:11 - 26:12
EN: They’re losing money.
ZH: 多头一直在亏钱
26:12 - 26:16
EN: Really hard for bulls to make money even buying with limit orders.
ZH: 即使用限价单逢低买入，也很难赚到钱
26:16 - 26:18
EN: Eventually the bulls stop trying.
ZH: 最终多头不再尝试
26:18 - 26:22
EN: They know that when it’s that difficult to make money,
ZH: 他们知道，如果做多赚钱这么难，
26:22 - 26:26
EN: the market probably has to go lower before enough bulls will be willing to buy.
ZH: 说明市场必须下跌更多，直到有足够多的多头愿意买入
26:30 - 26:34
EN: As I said, to make money they often have to scale in repeatedly,
ZH: 就像之前所说的那样，如果多头必须要通过多次加仓才能赚钱
26:34 - 26:37
EN: and then the profit is small and the risk is big,
ZH: 而且利润很小、风险很大的话，
26:38 - 26:40
EN: and most bulls do not want to trade like that.
ZH: 大部分多头是不愿意这样做的
26:40 - 26:41
EN: That’s terrible math.
ZH: 数学期望太糟糕了
26:47 - 26:50
EN: You have to do it perfectly or you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 除非做到完美，否则就会亏钱
26:50 - 26:53
EN: Very few people are perfect all of the time,
ZH: 不可能一直完美发挥
26:53 - 26:55
EN: and therefore it’s a terrible strategy.
ZH: 所以这是一个糟糕的策略
26:55 - 26:58
EN: It’s a losing strategy even for really good traders,
ZH: 不管是多么厉害的交易员，这样做都会亏损的
26:58 - 27:01
EN: so that’s not how experts trade.
ZH: 所以专业的交易员不会这样做
27:01 - 27:03
EN: They do the opposite.
ZH: 他们反其道而行之——做空
27:02 - 27:03
EN: They’re selling.
ZH: 他们反其道而行之——做空
27:03 - 27:09
EN: Whenever they look at a chart and see that it’s very difficult
ZH: 当他们注意到多头很难赚钱，那些专业交易员就只考虑做空
27:06 - 27:09
EN: for bulls to make money, the experts are only looking to sell.
ZH: 当他们注意到多头很难赚钱，那些专业交易员就只考虑做空
Slide 014
Time: 27:15
Bilingual Transcript
27:16 - 27:19
EN: Let’s say you’re a bull and you bought for any reason.
ZH: 假设你是多头，出于某个原因买入了
27:19 - 27:20
EN: Let’s say you bought at this low.
ZH: 假设你在这个低点挂单买入
27:21 - 27:29
EN: You’re planning on getting out maybe after 2 or 3 consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 你的计划是：如果有连续两三根阴线的话就止损离场 尤其是跌到新低，有大阴线、有跟随
27:26 - 27:29
EN: especially a new low with a big bear bar and then a follow-through bar.
ZH: 你的计划是：如果有连续两三根阴线的话就止损离场 尤其是跌到新低，有大阴线、有跟随
27:30 - 27:37
EN: Well, one thing you could do is you could say, okay,
ZH: 其中一种选择是，看到空头突破，而且还有跟随， 你可以反手做空
27:33 - 27:37
EN: if I get that bear breakout and follow-through, I’m going to reverse to short.
ZH: 其中一种选择是，看到空头突破，而且还有跟随， 你可以反手做空
27:37 - 27:44
EN: So I buy at this low, get filled over here, and at this point I know that
ZH: 在这个低点挂限价买单，在这里成交； 到了这里，我知道我错了，于是反手做空
27:42 - 27:44
EN: I’m wrong and I’m going to reverse to short,
ZH: 在这个低点挂限价买单，在这里成交； 到了这里，我知道我错了，于是反手做空
27:44 - 27:52
EN: and it’ll fall at least the same distance,
ZH: 如果下跌相同的距离，我在这里止盈， 就能够把刚才的亏损赚回来
27:47 - 27:52
EN: and I’ll be able to get out and erase my loss.
ZH: 如果下跌相同的距离，我在这里止盈， 就能够把刚才的亏损赚回来
27:50 - 27:52
EN: I’ll make as much as what I lost.
ZH: 如果下跌相同的距离，我在这里止盈， 就能够把刚才的亏损赚回来
27:53 - 27:57
EN: It sounds good in theory, and it usually theoretically is possible to do.
ZH: 听起来不错，理论上是可行的
27:57 - 27:59
EN: What’s the one flaw?
ZH: 缺点是什么呢？
27:59 - 28:02
EN: Even experienced traders do not like to reverse.
ZH: 即使是很有经验的交易员，也不太喜欢立刻反向开仓
28:05 - 28:09
EN: It’s hard to quickly change your evaluation of the market.
ZH: 对市场的判断是很难快速改变的
28:10 - 28:12
EN: Emotions get in your way.
ZH: 情绪会阻止你这么做
28:12 - 28:16
EN: You don’t feel objective, and even experts rarely do it.
ZH: 会感觉不够客观，所以即使是专业交易员也很少这么做
28:16 - 28:20
EN: I sometimes do it, but I do not like to do it, and I rarely do it.
ZH: 我偶尔会反向开仓，但我并不喜欢这么做，所以很少
28:24 - 28:26
EN: Now, I’ll go back to what I’ve said countless times:
ZH: 现在，我要再讲一遍这句说了无数次的话：
28:26 - 28:29
EN: when a channel is tight, only look to sell.
ZH: 在窄下降通道中，只考虑做空
28:30 - 28:36
EN: Another reason for that is the buying strategies are losers,
ZH: 其中一个原因是，不管用什么方法做多都会亏钱，都是止损离场
28:34 - 28:36
EN: and you’re going to get out.
ZH: 其中一个原因是，不管用什么方法做多都会亏钱，都是止损离场
28:36 - 28:40
EN: Theoretically you could reverse to short and make up for the loss,
ZH: 理论上你可以反手做空并弥补亏损
28:40 - 28:42
EN: but you’re not going to do it often enough,
ZH: 但你无法经常这么做
28:42 - 28:45
EN: and the result is you’ll end up losing money.
ZH: 结果就是最终会亏钱
Slide 015
Time: 28:50
Bilingual Transcript
28:53 - 28:56
EN: We have a bear breakout and we have follow-through,
ZH: 空头突破，有好的跟随
28:56 - 28:58
EN: and now we’re channeling down.
ZH: 市场在通道中下跌
28:58 - 29:02
EN: This is a bear breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期，它就是一次突破
29:02 - 29:04
EN: The odds are high that we’re going lower,
ZH: 继续下跌的概率很高
29:05 - 29:07
EN: so you’re thinking about getting short.
ZH: 所以只考虑做空
29:07 - 29:11
EN: The first thing you always have to determine is where a reasonable stop is.
ZH: 第一件事就是确定合理的止损在哪里
29:14 - 29:15
EN: You have several choices.
ZH: 这里有几个选择
29:15 - 29:19
EN: So let’s say the market is right here and you’re thinking about getting short.
ZH: 假设目前在这里，你在考虑做空
29:19 - 29:21
EN: You know it’s a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 你知道这是一个非常窄的下降通道
29:21 - 29:24
EN: We’re probably going lower, and you’re going to go short.
ZH: 大概率会继续跌，所以你想做空
29:24 - 29:26
EN: Reasonable stops?
ZH: 止损放在哪里？
29:26 - 29:28
EN: Maybe above the top of the current bear leg,
ZH: 可以放在当前这个下跌波段的起跌点上方
29:28 - 29:30
EN: maybe above the top of the bear breakout,
ZH: 可以放在大阴线的起跌点上方
29:30 - 29:32
EN: maybe above the top of this bear trend.
ZH: 可以放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方
29:32 - 29:34
EN: This is a major Lower High.
ZH: 它是一个重要的高点
29:34 - 29:36
EN: All are reasonable.
ZH: 这些都是合理的
29:42 - 29:46
EN: If you sell here, you choose any of the reasonable stops.
ZH: 想在这里卖出做空，先从中选择一个止损位置
29:46 - 29:48
EN: You know what your risk is per contract,
ZH: 这样你就知道每手合约的风险是多少
29:48 - 29:51
EN: and that determines how many contracts you can hold.
ZH: 这决定了你应该交易几手合约（注：止损距离决定仓位）
29:53 - 29:54
EN: You have to sell.
ZH: 你必须做空
29:54 - 29:55
EN: You know it’s going lower.
ZH: 因为你知道它还会继续下跌
29:56 - 29:57
EN: You see the bulls are trapped.
ZH: 你看到多头被套牢了
29:57 - 29:59
EN: The bulls are not making money.
ZH: 多头无法赚钱
29:59 - 30:03
EN: You can argue that we keep getting bad follow-through after every bear bar
ZH: 尽管每根阴线后的跟随都很糟糕
30:03 - 30:09
EN: - which is true; bear bar, doji, bear bar, bull bar, bear bar,
ZH: ——确实如此：阴线，十字星；阴线，阳线； 阴线，反转阳线——但通道实在太窄了
30:06 - 30:09
EN: bull reversal bar – but the channel is very tight,
ZH: ——确实如此：阴线，十字星；阴线，阳线； 阴线，反转阳线——但通道实在太窄了
30:09 - 30:12
EN: and therefore the odds are the market’s going lower.
ZH: 大概率市场会继续下跌
30:12 - 30:13
EN: So you have to sell.
ZH: 所以你必须卖出
30:13 - 30:15
EN: What’s the easiest way to sell?
ZH: 最简单的入场方式是什么？
30:15 - 30:16
EN: Just sell at the market
ZH: 直接市价卖出
30:16 - 30:19
EN: and put your stop where you know it has to go.
ZH: 然后把止损放在正确的位置
30:19 - 30:21
EN: Any one of these three stops is reasonable.
ZH: 这三个止损的选择都是合理的
30:21 - 30:24
EN: If you choose a tighter stop, it’s going to get hit more often,
ZH: 如果选择窄止损，它会更频繁的被打掉
30:24 - 30:27
EN: but the loss will be less than if you use a wider stop.
ZH: 但每次的亏损会比宽止损小很多
30:27 - 30:32
EN: But all three choices are reasonable, so choosing any is okay.
ZH: 总之，这三个都是合理的止损，任选其一即可
30:32 - 30:40
EN: After 10 trades, if you take the tight stop, you’ll end up
ZH: 用窄止损做100笔交易， 最终的利润和用宽止损是差不多的
30:35 - 30:40
EN: with about the same profit and loss as a trader who used the wider stop.
ZH: 用窄止损做100笔交易， 最终的利润和用宽止损是差不多的
30:45 - 30:49
EN: Again, a Tight Bear Channel – they always look weak.
ZH: 再次强调，窄下降通道——看上去总是很弱
30:49 - 30:50
EN: They always look like they’re about to reverse.
ZH: 好像随时要被反转了一样
30:51 - 30:57
EN: But if it’s a Tight Channel, very small pullbacks,
ZH: 但如果通道很窄，反弹非常小、而且很短暂， 那你就只能顺势做空
30:54 - 30:57
EN: pullbacks only brief, you have to get short.
ZH: 但如果通道很窄，反弹非常小、而且很短暂， 那你就只能顺势做空
30:57 - 30:59
EN: It’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 它在更高的时间周期上就是突破
31:05 - 31:10
EN: What’s the difference between trading a Tight Bear Channel
ZH: 那么在交易窄下降通道的时候，和突破有什么区别呢？
31:08 - 31:10
EN: and trading a breakout?
ZH: 那么在交易窄下降通道的时候，和突破有什么区别呢？
31:11 - 31:13
EN: Well, one difference is if it’s a breakout,
ZH: 其中一个区别是，在突破阶段，
31:13 - 31:17
EN: it’s much easier to sell at any time, including at the low.
ZH: 在任何时候卖出做空都比较容易，哪怕是在很低的价格
31:17 - 31:21
EN: If it’s a channel, a lot of traders do not like to sell
ZH: 如果是通道，很多人就不喜欢在下沿卖出
31:21 - 31:23
EN: at the low and they prefer to sell pullbacks.
ZH: 他们更想要在反弹的时候卖出
31:23 - 31:26
EN: So they might be selling above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 比如在前期K线的高点上方挂限价卖单
Slide 016
Time: 31:30
Bilingual Transcript
31:35 - 31:38
EN: When the market’s doing this, you know it’s a bear trend.
ZH: 看到这样的价格行为，你知道这是一个下降趋势
31:38 - 31:40
EN: It’s a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 这是一个很窄的通道
31:40 - 31:45
EN: If you were to draw channel lines, you’d see that the channel is very tight.
ZH: 如果把通道线画出来，你会看到两条线几乎靠在一起
31:43 - 31:45
EN: The lines would be very close together.
ZH: 如果把通道线画出来，你会看到两条线几乎靠在一起
31:45 - 31:47
EN: So you know it’s going lower.
ZH: 所以你知道还会继续下跌
31:48 - 31:53
EN: For you to conclude that it’s going lower, you have to be at least 60% certain.
ZH: 能做出继续下跌的判断，说明你至少有60%确定
31:53 - 31:57
EN: It never feels like 60%, but you know it’s going lower.
ZH: 尽管好像永远都感觉不到60%那么自信，但你确实知道它会下跌
31:57 - 31:59
EN: That means you are 60%.
ZH: 所以你的潜意识里其实有60%的确定性
31:59 - 32:05
EN: As a trader, 60% probability is as good
ZH: 对于交易者而言，60%的概率已经是非常好的了， 所以你必须入场交易
32:02 - 32:05
EN: as it’s going to get, and you have to trade.
ZH: 对于交易者而言，60%的概率已经是非常好的了， 所以你必须入场交易
32:05 - 32:06
EN: You have to get short.
ZH: 必须做空
32:11 - 32:13
EN: And again, you could sell for any reason.
ZH: 你可以用任何方式开仓做空
32:13 - 32:23
EN: When I talk about selling closes, when I say “sell the close,”
ZH: 当我说“卖收盘”的时候，我的意思是在K线收盘的时候， 点击“市价卖出”，订单会在下一根K线开盘的时候成交
32:17 - 32:23
EN: what I mean is when the bar closes, you sell at the market
ZH: 当我说“卖收盘”的时候，我的意思是在K线收盘的时候， 点击“市价卖出”，订单会在下一根K线开盘的时候成交
32:20 - 32:23
EN: and you get filled at the start of the next bar.
ZH: 当我说“卖收盘”的时候，我的意思是在K线收盘的时候， 点击“市价卖出”，订单会在下一根K线开盘的时候成交
32:23 - 32:27
EN: Or you sell a second or two before this bar closes at the market,
ZH: 或者你在这根K线收盘前一两秒，点击市价卖出
32:27 - 32:30
EN: and you’ll get filled right around the close of this bar.
ZH: 那么订单就会在这根K线收盘前成交
32:30 - 32:34
EN: That’s the easiest way to get short in a very strong bear trend.
ZH: 这是在强下降趋势中最简单的入场方法
32:40 - 32:42
EN: Every reversal is minor.
ZH: 每次上涨都是小反转
32:42 - 32:49
EN: That means every reversal will become either a bear flag
ZH: 也就是说，每次上涨都会变成熊旗，然后继续下跌； 或者变成震荡区间，然后继续下跌
32:44 - 32:49
EN: and lead to lower prices or a Trading Range and lead to lower prices,
ZH: 也就是说，每次上涨都会变成熊旗，然后继续下跌； 或者变成震荡区间，然后继续下跌
32:49 - 32:53
EN: and therefore if you see a reversal, it’s going to fail,
ZH: 因此当你看到反弹的时候，你知道它会失败
32:53 - 32:59
EN: and you can sell a strong bull close, betting that the reversal up
ZH: 所以可以在强势阳线的收盘卖出，押注反转会失败
32:57 - 32:59
EN: is minor and that it will fail.
ZH: 所以可以在强势阳线的收盘卖出，押注反转会失败
33:02 - 33:05
EN: Again, if you cannot decide what to do, just sell at the market.
ZH: 如果无法决定该怎么做，就直接市价卖出
33:06 - 33:09
EN: Here, you can also sell on a stop below the low of a prior bar.
ZH: 这里，你也可以在前一根K线的低点下方用突破卖单做空
33:09 - 33:12
EN: We have a pullback.
ZH: 反弹之后，用突破单在前一根K线的下方卖出做空
33:10 - 33:12
EN: Sell on a stop right below its low.
ZH: 反弹之后，用突破单在前一根K线的下方卖出做空
33:14 - 33:17
EN: It doesn’t matter where you sold or for what reason you sold;
ZH: 不管你在哪里卖出、用什么方式卖出
33:17 - 33:20
EN: you just look to the left for a major Lower High
ZH: 只需要看左边，找到一个重要的高点
33:20 - 33:24
EN: or a significant top and you can use your stop there.
ZH: 或者一个明显的顶部，然后把止损放在那里
33:24 - 33:32
EN: If it’s a strong bear trend, it’s not going to go above this high
ZH: 如果强下降趋势的前提成立， 这个高点、那个高点或那个高点就不应该被突破，所以它们都是合理的选择
33:27 - 33:32
EN: or that high or that high, and therefore any of them is reasonable.
ZH: 如果强下降趋势的前提成立， 这个高点、那个高点或那个高点就不应该被突破，所以它们都是合理的选择
33:34 - 33:38
EN: I’m going to talk about more ways to get short in the next video.
ZH: 下节课我会讲解更多入场做空的方法
33:44 - 33:47
EN: I began by talking about scaling into longs in a bear channel.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了在窄下降通道中买入并加仓（是糟糕的做法）
Slide 017
Time: 33:45
Bilingual Transcript
33:47 - 33:50
EN: If the channel is tight, you should not be buying for any reason.
ZH: 如果下降通道很窄，那么不管有什么理由，都不应该买入
33:50 - 33:55
EN: Theoretically it’s often possible to make money scaling into longs
ZH: 即使理论上，多头可以通过亏损加仓的方法赚钱
33:55 - 33:59
EN: in a bear trend, but it’s a terrible idea, and experts do not do that.
ZH: 但实际上并不可行，因此专业交易员不会这么做
33:59 - 34:00
EN: They do the opposite.
ZH: 他们反其道而行之
34:00 - 34:03
EN: They’ll sell and maybe scale into shorts.
ZH: 他们会做空，然后盈利加仓
34:04 - 34:08
EN: Whenever I look at a chart and I’m thinking
ZH: 在我开仓交易之前，我总是先看左边的K线
34:06 - 34:08
EN: about placing a trade, I always look to the left.
ZH: 在我开仓交易之前，我总是先看左边的K线
34:09 - 34:12
EN: Have the bulls been making money pretty easily?
ZH: 多头能不能轻松地赚钱？
34:12 - 34:14
EN: And if it’s very difficult for the bulls to make money,
ZH: 如果多头赚钱非常困难
34:14 - 34:18
EN: that makes me very confident that I have to sell and only sell.
ZH: 我就会对做空充满信心——只做空，不做多
34:22 - 34:23
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
34:23 - 34:26
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
34:26 - 34:30
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易窄下降通道的第3节课，就先讲到这里