al-brooks-course
30B - Trader’s Equation and Probability
Raw transcript and slide notes for 30B - Trader’s Equation and Probability.
Overview
- Slides: 24
- Transcript segments: 553
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the second of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and Probability.
ZH: 这是数学期望和概率的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: Traders often hear about risk/reward ratios.
ZH: 交易者经常听到盈亏比这个词
00:17 - 00:20
EN: Two variables when you take a trade, risk and reward.
ZH: 当你在做交易的时候，有两个变量——风险和利润
00:20 - 00:22
EN: There’s an equally important variable
ZH: 还有一个同样重要的变量
00:22 - 00:25
EN: that you never hear about, and that’s probability.
ZH: 但你很少听到，那就是概率
Slide 002
Time: 00:26
Bilingual Transcript
00:30 - 00:36
EN: You have to consider all three variables
ZH: 在进行交易时，你必须考虑所有3个变量—— 概率、风险和利润
00:32 - 00:36
EN: whenever you’re taking a trade – probability, risk, and reward.
ZH: 在进行交易时，你必须考虑所有3个变量—— 概率、风险和利润
00:39 - 00:42
EN: If you want, you can think of them as simply two variables:
ZH: 你也可以将它们简单地看作两个变量——
00:42 - 00:45
EN: probability, and then the risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 概率，盈亏比
00:49 - 00:51
EN: If a trader sees this breakout with this big tail
ZH: 当交易者看到这个大阳线突破的上影线很长，
00:51 - 00:55
EN: and then a second attempt to go up and another reversal down here,
ZH: 第2次尝试上涨，然后再次反转下跌
00:55 - 00:57
EN: he might sell below the low of this bar
ZH: 他可能会在这根K线的低点下方卖出
00:57 - 01:01
EN: and put a stop either above the high of this bar or up here.
ZH: 然后把止损放在这根K线的高点上方，或更高的位置
01:02 - 01:05
EN: The result was a big bear trend.
ZH: 结果市场走出了一个大下降趋势
01:05 - 01:10
EN: Whether he had his stop here or here, the risk was small compared to the reward.
ZH: 无论他的止损设置在这里还是那里， 相对于利润而言，风险都很小
01:10 - 01:14
EN: He ended up taking a trade that had a very good risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 最终，这是一笔盈亏比非常好的交易
01:14 - 01:17
EN: However, selling right here, the probability
ZH: 然而，在这里卖出做空，
01:17 - 01:20
EN: that you’re going to get a swing down is small.
ZH: 赚到一个下跌波段的概率并不高
01:20 - 01:22
EN: More likely you’re going to go sideways.
ZH: 更有可能的是横盘震荡
01:22 - 01:25
EN: Low probability, very big risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 胜率低，但是盈亏比非常好
01:28 - 01:32
EN: If a trader prefers higher probability, he’ll wait for the bear breakout
ZH: 如果交易者想要更高的胜率，他会等待大阴线跌破，
01:32 - 01:37
EN: and the follow-through bar – this bar closing below the low of the past 30 bars.
ZH: 并且有跟随K线——这根K线的收盘低于过去30根K线的低点
01:37 - 01:41
EN: The probability is high that the market’s going to fall
ZH: 市场继续下跌的概率很高，至少跌到MM目标位——
01:40 - 01:46
EN: for at least a Measured Move, from the open of this bear breakout
ZH: 市场继续下跌的概率很高，至少跌到MM目标位—— 从这根阴线的开盘价，到这根阴线的收盘价， 往下翻一倍，在这里到达
01:43 - 01:46
EN: to the close of the bear breakout, which is done here.
ZH: 从这根阴线的开盘价，到这根阴线的收盘价， 往下翻一倍，在这里到达
01:46 - 01:49
EN: 60% chance or more that we’re falling down here.
ZH: 60%或更高的概率，会跌到这里
01:50 - 01:53
EN: Yet if you sell here, you’re getting a high probability trade,
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，这笔交易的胜率很高，
01:53 - 01:55
EN: but your stop is still here or here,
ZH: 但是止损仍然在这里或这里
01:56 - 02:00
EN: so the risk is much greater than for a trader who sold here.
ZH: 所以风险相比在这里做空的交易者要大得多
02:00 - 02:04
EN: This trader had great risk/reward and lower probability;
ZH: 这个交易者有很好的盈亏比，但是胜率较低
02:04 - 02:08
EN: this trader has worse risk – his stop is further away
ZH: 这个交易者冒的风险较大——他的止损更远
02:08 - 02:10
EN: - but a higher probability of making money.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率更高
02:10 - 02:13
EN: You could also sell below this Double Top bear flag
ZH: 你也可以在这个双顶熊旗下方卖出
02:13 - 02:16
EN: - a Low 1, Low 2, Double Top, this high and this high.
ZH: ——低1、低2，这个高点和这个高点形成双顶
02:16 - 02:21
EN: That is also a high probability trade for making money,
ZH: 这也是一笔可以赚钱的高胜率机会
02:21 - 02:24
EN: but again, the stop is up here, and that’s the tradeoff.
ZH: 但同样，止损在这里，这就是代价
02:24 - 02:30
EN: You either get a high probability of making money
ZH: 要么拥有高胜率——通常伴随着较差的盈亏比
02:27 - 02:30
EN: - it’s always accompanied with bad risk/reward
ZH: 要么拥有高胜率——通常伴随着较差的盈亏比
02:30 - 02:37
EN: - or you have a trade with excellent risk/reward
ZH: 或者有非常好的盈亏比——通常胜率比较低
02:34 - 02:37
EN: that’s always accompanied by bad probability.
ZH: 或者有非常好的盈亏比——通常胜率比较低
Slide 003
Time: 02:40
Bilingual Transcript
02:43 - 02:45
EN: For every trade, there’s always one institution buying
ZH: 任何一笔交易，总是（至少）有一个机构在买入
02:45 - 02:47
EN: and another institution selling,
ZH: 另一个机构在卖出
02:47 - 02:50
EN: and there has to be a reason for both of them to take the trade.
ZH: 他们双方都有充分的理由进行交易
02:52 - 02:54
EN: In general, it’s a tradeoff.
ZH: 总的来说，这就是（概率和盈亏比之间的）权衡
02:54 - 02:58
EN: One trader gets better probability and worse risk/reward;
ZH: 一个机构有较高的胜率和较差的盈亏比
02:58 - 03:02
EN: the other institution gets worse probability, but better risk/reward.
ZH: 另一个机构的胜率较低，但盈亏比更好
03:03 - 03:07
EN: Both are acceptable if you manage the trade correctly.
ZH: 如果你正确地管理交易，两者都是可以接受的
03:08 - 03:10
EN: Should you buy or sell?
ZH: 你应该做多还是做空？
03:10 - 03:13
EN: You choose the variable that’s more important to you.
ZH: 你需要选择对你而言更重要的变量
03:13 - 03:16
EN: Some traders always try to take high probability trades
ZH: 一些交易者总是尝试做高胜率的交易
03:16 - 03:17
EN: because they like to win a lot.
ZH: 因为他们享受经常胜利的感觉
03:18 - 03:21
EN: However, that always means smaller risk/reward.
ZH: 然而，这总是意味着盈亏比 比较小
03:21 - 03:24
EN: In general, the risk is greater, the reward is less.
ZH: 总体来说，风险更大，利润更小
03:25 - 03:28
EN: Other traders really focus on big reward.
ZH: 其它的交易者非常关注大赚的机会
03:28 - 03:32
EN: They like to get very big winners; however, when they do that,
ZH: 他们喜欢一次赚很多钱； 然而，当他们这样做时
03:32 - 03:34
EN: it’s always accompanied by lower probability.
ZH: 总是伴随着比较低的胜率
Slide 004
Time: 03:38
Bilingual Transcript
03:40 - 03:44
EN: I want to make a point about risk/reward and probability,
ZH: 我想说明关于盈亏比和概率的一件事，
03:44 - 03:47
EN: and I’ll use lottery tickets as an example.
ZH: 我以彩票为例来讲
03:52 - 03:57
EN: A trader never gambles because the casino or the state sets the rules,
ZH: 一个交易者不会参与赌博，因为赌场制定了游戏的规则，
03:57 - 04:02
EN: and the rules are designed to guarantee
ZH: 这些规则保证了赌场具有优势，可以赚钱 （注：如轮盘赌，或老虎机等）
03:59 - 04:02
EN: that the casino or the state will make money.
ZH: 这些规则保证了赌场具有优势，可以赚钱 （注：如轮盘赌，或老虎机等）
04:02 - 04:06
EN: Even if an occasional gambler gets rich, that is not trading.
ZH: 即使偶尔有赌徒发财，那也不是交易
04:11 - 04:15
EN: However, I want to use gambling – in this case, a lottery
ZH: 然而，我想用赌博——以彩票为例，
04:15 - 04:21
EN: - to illustrate the tradeoff that exists between risk/reward and probability.
ZH: 来说明盈亏比和概率之间的权衡
04:25 - 04:30
EN: When trading, you have two rational people trading with one another.
ZH: 在交易时，有两个理性的人彼此交易
04:30 - 04:35
EN: If one side has great risk/reward, the other side has great probability.
ZH: 如果一方有很好的盈亏比，另一方则有很好的概率
04:37 - 04:41
EN: There has to be a reason for both sides to take the trade,
ZH: 必须存在一个让双方交易的原因
04:41 - 04:46
EN: and they can be profitable taking either side
ZH: 双方都有赚钱的机会，无论选择哪一种—— 盈亏比的优势，或概率的优势
04:44 - 04:46
EN: - great risk/reward or great probability.
ZH: 双方都有赚钱的机会，无论选择哪一种—— 盈亏比的优势，或概率的优势
Slide 005
Time: 04:50
Bilingual Transcript
04:53 - 04:56
EN: Now, let me go back to the example of a lottery.
ZH: 在，让我们回到彩票的例子
04:56 - 04:58
EN: Let’s say you buy a ticket for a dollar.
ZH: 假设你花一美元买了一张彩票
04:58 - 05:01
EN: Therefore, the most you can lose is one dollar.
ZH: 因此，你最多损失一美元
05:01 - 05:04
EN: Your risk is very small relative to your reward.
ZH: 相对于潜在的回报而言，你的风险非常小
05:04 - 05:10
EN: In this particular case, you could win $750 million, so tremendous risk/reward.
ZH: 在这个案例中，你可能中7.5亿美元的大奖，所以盈亏比极高
05:11 - 05:16
EN: However, whenever you have excellent risk/reward, you always have low probability.
ZH: 然而，每当你有极好的盈亏比时，胜率总是很低
05:21 - 05:23
EN: That means you’ll lose most of the time.
ZH: 也就是说，大多数时候会输
05:23 - 05:25
EN: The odds are overwhelming that you’ll lose.
ZH: 你输钱的概率非常大
05:26 - 05:27
EN: There can be no perfect trades.
ZH: 不可能存在完美的交易
05:27 - 05:31
EN: If you have great risk/reward, you cannot have very good probability
ZH: 如果你有很好的盈亏比，你就不可能有很高的胜率
05:31 - 05:34
EN: because no one would take the other side of the trade.
ZH: 因为没有人会愿意做你的对手盘
05:34 - 05:38
EN: If you have great risk/reward, very little risk, tremendous reward,
ZH: 如果你有很好的盈亏比，风险很小，利润巨大
05:38 - 05:40
EN: and a high probability of winning,
ZH: 并且有很高的胜率
05:40 - 05:42
EN: who’s going to take the other side of the trade?
ZH: 谁愿意做你的对手盘呢？
05:42 - 05:46
EN: They’ll have big risk, they’ll have very little reward,
ZH: 他们将面临很大的风险，很小的利润，
05:46 - 05:48
EN: and very little probability.
ZH: 而且胜率还很低
05:48 - 05:50
EN: Nobody’s going to take that other side of the trade,
ZH: 没有人会愿意做你的对手盘
05:51 - 05:53
EN: and therefore a perfect trade can never exist.
ZH: 因此，永远不存在完美的交易
05:54 - 05:58
EN: If you have great reward, that always means that the probability is low,
ZH: 如果利润很大，这总是意味着概率很低
05:58 - 06:00
EN: and that means that you’ll lose most of the time.
ZH: 也就是说你大多数时候会输钱
06:03 - 06:08
EN: In this particular case, in the case of a lottery, if you have great risk/reward,
ZH: 比如这个彩票的例子，如果你有很好的盈亏比——
06:08 - 06:11
EN: you have very little risk and you have tremendous reward.
ZH: 风险很小，但利润巨大
06:11 - 06:16
EN: The ticket seller, the person selling – you buy the ticket, they sell the ticket
ZH: 那么卖彩票的人——你买彩票，州政府卖彩票—— （注：Powerball，即强力球等彩票，都是州政府运营的）
06:16 - 06:20
EN: - the state, they have a very high probability of making money.
ZH: 卖彩票的州政府有很高的概率可以赚钱
06:20 - 06:21
EN: But they’re not making much money.
ZH: 但他们不会赚太多钱
06:21 - 06:25
EN: They’re only making a dollar and they’re risking $750 million.
ZH: 他们只赚你1美元，但是冒了7.5亿美元的风险 （注：当然了，不止一个人买彩票，而且并不是每一期都有人中奖）
06:25 - 06:29
EN: So their risk/reward is horrible, but their probability is very, very high.
ZH: 所以他们的盈亏比很糟糕，但他们的胜率非常非常高
06:36 - 06:40
EN: Now, in a lottery or in any kind of casino gambling,
ZH: 现在，在彩票或任何形式的赌场中
06:40 - 06:43
EN: the state has a 100% probability of making money.
ZH: 州政府的赚钱概率是100%
06:43 - 06:44
EN: How does it do that?
ZH: 它们是如何做到的呢？
06:45 - 06:56
EN: In the case of a lottery, the prize money is always going to be
ZH: 比如彩票，奖金是总销售额的40%左右， 所以如果州政府卖出了100万美元的彩票
06:49 - 06:56
EN: about 40% of the total ticket sales, and therefore if the state
ZH: 比如彩票，奖金是总销售额的40%左右， 所以如果州政府卖出了100万美元的彩票
06:54 - 06:56
EN: sells a million dollars in tickets,
ZH: 比如彩票，奖金是总销售额的40%左右， 所以如果州政府卖出了100万美元的彩票
06:56 - 06:59
EN: they’re only going to give away $400,000 in prize money.
ZH: 它们只会发出40万美元的奖金 （注：赚钱还是政府最厉害）
06:59 - 07:03
EN: If they are giving away $750 million in prize money,
ZH: 如果他们发放7.5亿美元的奖金，
07:03 - 07:07
EN: that means they’re selling about two billion dollars’ worth of tickets.
ZH: 这意味着他们卖出了大约20亿美元的彩票
07:07 - 07:12
EN: So they’re setting it up so that they have a 100% probability of making money.
ZH: 所以他们设置了规则，保证他们有100%的赚钱概率
07:12 - 07:13
EN: That is not trading.
ZH: 这不是交易
07:13 - 07:14
EN: Again, that’s gambling.
ZH: 再次强调，这是赌博
07:19 - 07:24
EN: Again, when you’re trading – not gambling, not buying lottery tickets
ZH: 当你在交易时——不是赌博，不是买彩票——
Slide 006
Time: 07:20
Bilingual Transcript
07:24 - 07:28
EN: - when you’re trading, whenever you take a trade with great risk/reward,
ZH: 而是在交易时，每当你拥有很好的盈亏比的时候，
07:28 - 07:30
EN: you’re probably going to lose on any one trade.
ZH: 任何一笔交易都有可能会亏钱
07:34 - 07:36
EN: That is a swing trade.
ZH: 那就是波段交易
07:36 - 07:40
EN: A swing trade is a trade where the reward is greater than the risk
ZH: 波段交易是一种利润大于风险的交易
07:40 - 07:45
EN: and the probability is, in general, about 40%, sometimes 50%.
ZH: 通常，胜率约为40%，偶尔有50%
07:46 - 07:50
EN: You only take a swing trade if you structure it in a way
ZH: 只有正确地构建一笔波段交易，
07:50 - 07:56
EN: so that you’ll get an occasional big reward
ZH: 才能做到偶尔大赚， 利润足够大，足以弥补胜率的劣势
07:52 - 07:56
EN: that is big enough to offset the frequent small losses.
ZH: 才能做到偶尔大赚， 利润足够大，足以弥补胜率的劣势
08:01 - 08:04
EN: If you’re taking a high probability trade – in other words,
ZH: 如果你做高胜率交易——换句话说，
08:04 - 08:07
EN: a very big chance that you’re going to make money
ZH: 你赚钱的概率非常高
08:07 - 08:11
EN: - your risk is always going to be high relative to your reward.
ZH: 那么相对于你的利润而言，风险就会比较大
08:12 - 08:16
EN: For example, you might be risking $100 to make $5.
ZH: 例如，你可能冒着100美元的风险来赚5美元
08:16 - 08:18
EN: This is scalping.
ZH: 这就是剥头皮交易
08:18 - 08:23
EN: A scalping situation is a trade that has a high probability of making money,
ZH: 剥头皮交易是指具有高胜率的交易
08:23 - 08:26
EN: but the reward is small relative to your risk.
ZH: 但相对于风险而言，回报较小
08:26 - 08:28
EN: A swing trade is the opposite.
ZH: 波段交易则相反
08:28 - 08:32
EN: You have a low probability – a relatively low probability
ZH: 胜率相对较低
08:32 - 08:35
EN: - but your reward is greater than your risk.
ZH: 但利润（远）大于风险
08:41 - 08:44
EN: Most traders have a better chance of making money if they swing trade.
ZH: 对大部分交易者而言，做波段交易更有可能盈利
08:44 - 08:48
EN: That means going for a reward that is at least twice the risk.
ZH: 这意味着追求至少两倍于风险的利润
08:49 - 08:53
EN: Usually you’ll achieve at least that goal 40% of the time.
ZH: 通常情况下，你在40%时候可以至少达到这个目标
08:53 - 08:58
EN: 60% of the time you’ll have small wins and small losses that offset one another.
ZH: 剩下60%的时候，你会小赚、小亏，相互抵消
Slide 007
Time: 09:00
Bilingual Transcript
09:03 - 09:07
EN: When traders start out, they work really hard to save enough money to trade.
ZH: 当交易者刚开始时，他们非常努力地攒足够的钱来进行交易
09:08 - 09:12
EN: The one variable that they consider far beyond any other is risk.
ZH: 他们考虑的最重要的一个变量就是风险
09:12 - 09:14
EN: They don’t want to lose money.
ZH: 他们不想亏钱
09:14 - 09:16
EN: They’re afraid that if they lose money,
ZH: 他们害怕，如果亏钱的话，
09:16 - 09:18
EN: they’ll lose their account and they’ll lose their dream.
ZH: 就会失去他们的账户和梦想
09:18 - 09:21
EN: It’ll be the death of their dream, so it’s the equivalent of dying.
ZH: 梦想破灭了，人就会绝望，等同于死亡
09:22 - 09:26
EN: And when traders begin trading, they tend to focus only on risk,
ZH: 所以当新手开始交易时，他们往往只关注风险
09:26 - 09:30
EN: and they often totally ignore probability – which is unfortunate,
ZH: 而且不幸的是，他们往往完全忽视了概率
09:30 - 09:34
EN: because you need to pay attention to all three variables
ZH: 如果你想盈利的话，你需要关注所有三个变量
09:33 - 09:34
EN: if you’re going to trade profitably.
ZH: 如果你想盈利的话，你需要关注所有三个变量
09:40 - 09:45
EN: Beginners are always looking for the lowest risk trades, and they lose money,
ZH: 但新手总是在寻找最低风险的交易，并且不断亏钱，
09:45 - 09:51
EN: and it’s because they don’t understand
ZH: 因为他们不理解低风险意味着低概率
09:47 - 09:51
EN: that a low risk trade means low probability.
ZH: 因为他们不理解低风险意味着低概率
09:51 - 09:53
EN: That means you’re going to lose most of the time.
ZH: 意味着大多数时候会亏钱
09:54 - 09:58
EN: And then if you add to it poor management because of inexperience,
ZH: 加上由于缺乏经验，管理能力也很糟糕
09:58 - 10:03
EN: your losses are going to be bigger
ZH: 每次的亏损都会更大，而且亏钱的概率还会更高
10:00 - 10:03
EN: and you’re going to lose even a higher percentage of the time.
ZH: 每次的亏损都会更大，而且亏钱的概率还会更高
10:06 - 10:10
EN: It doesn’t matter whether you take a trade with a great risk/reward
ZH: 无论你是做高盈亏比、低胜率的交易，
10:10 - 10:16
EN: and lower probability or a trade with a higher probability
ZH: 还是做高胜率、低盈亏的交易 只要你正确地管理这笔交易，两者都是可行的
10:13 - 10:16
EN: and worse risk/reward, if you manage the trade properly.
ZH: 只要你正确地管理这笔交易，两者都是可行的
10:17 - 10:19
EN: Both are reasonable ways to trade.
ZH: 两者都是合理的交易方式
10:19 - 10:22
EN: Both have positive Trader’s Equations.
ZH: 它们的数学期望都是正的
Slide 008
Time: 10:25
Bilingual Transcript
10:29 - 10:33
EN: Some traders don’t worry too much about picking exact tops and bottoms.
ZH: 一些交易者并不在意精确地抄底、摸顶
10:35 - 10:39
EN: A lot of them will wait for a pullback or a breakout
ZH: 他们中的很多人会耐心等待回调或突破，
10:39 - 10:41
EN: because then the probability of making money is higher.
ZH: 因为这样赚钱的概率更高
10:45 - 10:50
EN: They’ll sell the breakout or they’ll sell the bear flag,
ZH: 他们会在突破时做空，或者在熊旗做空—— 突破之后的反弹
10:48 - 10:50
EN: the pullback from that breakout.
ZH: 他们会在突破时做空，或者在熊旗做空—— 突破之后的反弹
10:53 - 10:58
EN: These traders are comfortable having a stop far away, either here or here,
ZH: 这些交易者愿意把止损放在较远的位置，放在这里或这里
10:58 - 11:01
EN: because they know the probability is high that they’ll make money.
ZH: 因为他们知道自己赚钱的概率很高
11:02 - 11:06
EN: That bigger risk is the price they pay to get the high probability of a profit.
ZH: 高胜率的代价就是需要承担更大的风险
11:11 - 11:16
EN: Experienced traders will sometimes take lower risk, lower probability trades;
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员有时会做低风险、低胜率的交易；
11:16 - 11:21
EN: other times they’ll take higher probability, bigger risk trades
ZH: 其它时候他们做高胜率、同时风险也更大的交易
11:21 - 11:24
EN: - whichever one they feel like gives them the better edge.
ZH: ——哪个更有优势，他们就选哪个
11:27 - 11:31
EN: For example, if a trader has to leave soon and they cannot stay
ZH: 例如，如果一个交易者很快就要离开，
11:31 - 11:35
EN: to watch the trade all day, they need a high probability trade.
ZH: 不能一整天盯盘交易，他们就需要高胜率的交易策略
11:35 - 11:40
EN: They need a quick profit, a small profit.
ZH: 他们需要赚快钱，所以是赚小钱、小的盈利
11:37 - 11:40
EN: A small profit means a small reward.
ZH: 他们需要赚快钱，所以是赚小钱、小的盈利
11:40 - 11:41
EN: It’s a scalp.
ZH: 那就是剥头皮
11:41 - 11:46
EN: That means if they’re going to take the trade, they’re expecting
ZH: 也就是说，如果他们要交易的话，他们期望有一个较高的胜率
11:45 - 11:46
EN: to win a high percentage of the time.
ZH: 也就是说，如果他们要交易的话，他们期望有一个较高的胜率
Slide 009
Time: 11:50
Bilingual Transcript
11:54 - 11:58
EN: The best way to improve a risk/reward ratio is to swing trade.
ZH: 提高盈亏比最好的方法是做波段交易
11:58 - 12:00
EN: Go for a very big reward.
ZH: 追求非常大的利润
12:01 - 12:06
EN: For example, sell, and you stay short until the market either reverses
ZH: 例如，卖出做空，然后你坚定持有，直到市场反转上涨
12:06 - 12:08
EN: or until the end of the session.
ZH: 或者直到收盘
12:11 - 12:15
EN: Let’s say a trader sells below this low and uses a very tight stop
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这个低点下方卖出， 并且使用非常窄的止损
12:15 - 12:19
EN: just above the high of that bar, so they get short right here below that bar.
ZH: 止损就放在那根K线的高点上方， 他们在那根K线下方开仓做空
12:19 - 12:24
EN: If he’s a scalper, he might get out with one times his Initial Risk.
ZH: 如果他是一个剥头皮交易者， 他可能会在初始风险一倍的位置离场
12:25 - 12:27
EN: His Initial Risk was above the high of the sell signal bar.
ZH: 他的初始风险在做空信号K线的高点上方
12:27 - 12:30
EN: He entered here, and this is one times his risk.
ZH: 他在这里入场，这是他风险的一倍距离
12:34 - 12:40
EN: A swing trader, on the other hand, will stay with the trade
ZH: 然而，一个波段交易者会继续持有，直到下降趋势不再成立为止
12:38 - 12:40
EN: until the trade is no longer valid.
ZH: 然而，一个波段交易者会继续持有，直到下降趋势不再成立为止
12:40 - 12:44
EN: Here, three pushes down – one, two, three – a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 这里，3次向下推动——1，2，3——抛物线楔形
12:44 - 12:46
EN: We have a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 有一根阳线收在最高
12:46 - 12:48
EN: Maybe we’ll get a minor reversal.
ZH: 也许会有一些小反弹
12:48 - 12:52
EN: This is a reasonable place to exit, but look at the size of the reward.
ZH: 这是一个合理的离场位置； 看看利润的大小——
12:52 - 12:56
EN: Entering here and exiting here, risking to here or here,
ZH: 在这里入场，在这里离场； 而风险只有这一点，或这一点
12:56 - 13:00
EN: so excellent risk/reward ratio, but low probability.
ZH: 盈亏比是极好的，但（拿到那么大波段的）概率低
13:00 - 13:02
EN: 40% chance he’s going to get the swing down.
ZH: 40%的概率他可以赚到这个下跌的波段
13:02 - 13:05
EN: 60% chance he’s not going to get the swing down.
ZH: 60%的概率不会有这么好的波段
13:05 - 13:10
EN: Either the market will go up and hit his stop or it’ll simply go sideways.
ZH: 要么市场上涨并打掉他的止损，要么市场只是横盘震荡
13:13 - 13:19
EN: The huge reward relative to risk more than offsets
ZH: 然而偶尔能赚到巨大的利润，轻松弥补了胜率的不足
13:17 - 13:19
EN: the low probability of a very big profit.
ZH: 然而偶尔能赚到巨大的利润，轻松弥补了胜率的不足
13:19 - 13:21
EN: It’s reasonable to sell there.
ZH: 所以在这里做空是合理的
13:25 - 13:30
EN: There’s another way to improve the Trader’s Equation, and that’s by scaling in
ZH: 还有另一种提高数学期望的方法，那就是加仓——
13:30 - 13:33
EN: - adding to a position, even if it’s a losing position.
ZH: 增加自己的仓位，及时是浮亏的仓位
13:34 - 13:36
EN: Beginners should not do that.
ZH: 新手交易者不应该加仓 （注：因为加仓增加了决策的复杂性，更容易犯错）
Slide 010
Time: 13:40
Bilingual Transcript
13:43 - 13:46
EN: Scaling into a trade increases the probability of making money,
ZH: 加仓增加了赚钱的概率，
13:47 - 13:50
EN: but you pay for that with a worse risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 但代价是盈亏比变得更差
13:51 - 13:55
EN: You’re increasing your risk, and you’re usually reducing your reward as well.
ZH: 增加了风险，而且同时减少了回报
13:57 - 13:58
EN: For example, we have a bear trend,
ZH: 比如这个下降趋势
13:58 - 14:02
EN: but we have three pushes down – one, two, three.
ZH: 有3次向下推动——1，2，3
14:02 - 14:04
EN: It’s a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 这是一个抛物线楔形
14:04 - 14:07
EN: Consecutive Sell Climaxes, and there’s a bull bar.
ZH: 连续的抛售高潮，然后出现了阳线
14:07 - 14:09
EN: Consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 连续两根阳线
14:09 - 14:11
EN: This is not a high probability sell.
ZH: 这并不是一个高胜率的做空机会
14:12 - 14:17
EN: However, the reversal up is probably only going to be minor
ZH: 然而，上涨大概率只是小反弹； 大概率还会跌回来测试这个低点
14:15 - 14:17
EN: and we’ll probably test back down.
ZH: 然而，上涨大概率只是小反弹； 大概率还会跌回来测试这个低点
14:17 - 14:20
EN: When you have a very Tight Bear Channel, the first reversal up is minor
ZH: 当下降通道非常窄的时候，第1次上涨反转是小反弹
14:20 - 14:23
EN: and you’re usually going to test back down.
ZH: 通常会跌回来再次测试这个低点
14:23 - 14:26
EN: The bears sell here, hoping it’ll continue down,
ZH: 空头在这里卖出，希望市场继续下跌
14:26 - 14:29
EN: but confident that the first reversal up will not go far.
ZH: 确信第1次上涨幅度不会很大
14:29 - 14:33
EN: They can sell more and then get out around their original entry price.
ZH: 所以他们可以逢高卖出更多，然后在初始入场价格附近离场
14:33 - 14:38
EN: Breakeven on their first short, and then with a profit on their second short.
ZH: 他们的第一笔空单打平，加仓的部分赚钱
14:42 - 14:45
EN: Sell more maybe below here, a Low 2 or a Low 3.
ZH: 在这里下方卖出更多，低2或低3
14:45 - 14:49
EN: Low 1, Low 2, maybe this is a Low 2 and this is a Low 3.
ZH: 低1，低2，也许这是低2，这是低3
14:49 - 14:52
EN: It’s still below the top of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 价格仍然低于抛售高潮的起跌点
14:52 - 14:54
EN: it’s still below the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 它仍然低于下跌波段的起跌点
14:54 - 14:57
EN: Chances are the market’s going to test down to this area.
ZH: 市场很可能会再次测试这个区域
15:00 - 15:03
EN: Maybe a stop at the top of that most recent bear leg.
ZH: 止损放在这个下跌波段的起跌点上方
15:06 - 15:11
EN: He gets out when the market comes down
ZH: 当市场下跌到那根K线的低点—— 他的初始入场价格时，他就平仓
15:07 - 15:11
EN: to his original entry price at the low of that bar.
ZH: 当市场下跌到那根K线的低点—— 他的初始入场价格时，他就平仓
15:11 - 15:13
EN: He sold just a little bit below that bar,
ZH: 他之前在那根K线的低点下方卖出做空
15:13 - 15:16
EN: he might get out at the low of that bar and take a tiny loss,
ZH: 他的第一笔仓位，可能会在那根K线的低点平仓，亏1个tick；
15:16 - 15:19
EN: or he’ll get out just below the low of that bar and get out breakeven
ZH: 或者在那根K线下方平仓，正好打平；
15:19 - 15:23
EN: on his first entry, and he gets out with a profit on his second entry.
ZH: 然后加仓做空的部分盈利
15:23 - 15:28
EN: He increased the probability of making money by adding to his position,
ZH: 通过增加仓位，他提高了赚钱的概率，
15:28 - 15:30
EN: but he’s also increasing his risk.
ZH: 但同时也增加了风险
15:30 - 15:32
EN: Instead of risking from here to here,
ZH: 他的风险不只是这里到这里
15:32 - 15:36
EN: he’s additionally now risking from here to there as well.
ZH: 还额外增加了这里到那里的风险
15:37 - 15:42
EN: So he increased his risk to get the higher probability of making money.
ZH: 所以他通过增加风险的方式来提高赚钱的概率
15:42 - 15:46
EN: Again, only experienced traders should do this kind of a thing.
ZH: 再次强调，新手交易者不要这样做
Slide 011
Time: 15:49
Bilingual Transcript
15:53 - 15:57
EN: We have a bear trend, a bull breakout, and a Higher Low,
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破，低点抬高
15:57 - 15:58
EN: and now we have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 现在有一个双底
15:58 - 16:02
EN: If you want, you can call it a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 你也可以说它是双底，低点抬高的大反转
16:02 - 16:10
EN: You can call it a Double Bottom bull flag – so bull breakout,
ZH: 你可以说它是双底牛旗——多头突破， 回调之后形成双底，可能会形成上涨趋势
16:05 - 16:10
EN: a pullback, and then now a Double Bottom and possibly a bull trend.
ZH: 你可以说它是双底牛旗——多头突破， 回调之后形成双底，可能会形成上涨趋势
16:10 - 16:12
EN: In any case, we have a bull buy signal bar.
ZH: 无论如何，这是一个做多信号K线
16:12 - 16:15
EN: Traders will buy above that buy signal bar,
ZH: 交易者会在它的上方买入做多
16:15 - 16:18
EN: and some of them will put a stop just below the Double Bottom.
ZH: 其中一些人会把止损就放在双底的下方
16:18 - 16:23
EN: Very small risk, and that immediately tells you the probability is low.
ZH: 风险非常小，这立刻告诉你：概率很低
16:25 - 16:28
EN: If you take this buy, you’re probably going to lose money.
ZH: 如果你这样做，大部分时候会亏钱
16:28 - 16:30
EN: It’s probably going to fall below the low of that bar.
ZH: 大部分时候价格会跌破那根K线的低点
16:30 - 16:34
EN: Whenever the risk is small, chances are you’re going to lose.
ZH: 每当风险很小的时候，你大概率会亏损
16:36 - 16:38
EN: Stop just below the Double Bottom.
ZH: 止损就放在双底的下方
16:38 - 16:41
EN: Buying in the middle of a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 在窄震荡区间的中间买入
16:41 - 16:44
EN: Most attempts to break out of a Tight Trading Range fail
ZH: 窄震荡区间中大部分突破的尝试都会失败——
16:44 - 16:48
EN: - attempts to the down side or attempts to the up side.
ZH: 不管是向上还是向下突破的尝试
16:51 - 16:55
EN: A trader, on the other hand, might prefer a high probability trade,
ZH: 然而，另一个交易者，更喜欢高胜率的交易
16:56 - 16:58
EN: and here we have a very big bull breakout bar
ZH: 这里有一根非常强壮的大阳线突破
16:58 - 17:01
EN: and a second consecutive big bull breakout bar.
ZH: 连续第2根大阳线突破
17:02 - 17:05
EN: There’s a 60% chance after a strong breakout like this
ZH: 在这么强势的突破之后，有60%的概率，
17:05 - 17:08
EN: that the market’s going to rally for at least a Measured Move up
ZH: 市场至少会涨到MM目标位——
17:08 - 17:12
EN: based upon the open of the breakout to the close of the last bar of the breakout.
ZH: 从第1根大阳线的开盘，到第2根大阳线的收盘，往上翻一倍
17:13 - 17:15
EN: 60% chance we’re going up here.
ZH: 至少60%的概率会涨到那里
17:15 - 17:19
EN: High probability, but the stop is still down here.
ZH: 胜率很高，但止损仍然在这里（双底的下方）
17:20 - 17:22
EN: This trader put his stop here.
ZH: 之前那个交易者把止损设置在这里
17:23 - 17:27
EN: The trader who bought that close, his stop is here as well.
ZH: 而在这个大阳线收盘买入的人，他的止损也在这里
17:27 - 17:30
EN: He has a much higher probability of making money,
ZH: 他赚钱的概率更高，
17:30 - 17:35
EN: but he also has a much greater risk than the trader who took the initial buy.
ZH: 但他的风险也比最初买入的交易者大得多
17:39 - 17:44
EN: A Triangle, three pushes down – one, two, three, four, and a bull bar.
ZH: 三角形，3次向下推动——1，2，3，还有4，然后阳线
17:45 - 17:50
EN: It’s still a high probability that the traders will make money
ZH: 在那根阳线的上方买入，仍然是一个高胜率的买点
17:47 - 17:50
EN: if they take the buy above that bull bar.
ZH: 在那根阳线的上方买入，仍然是一个高胜率的买点
17:50 - 17:54
EN: The probability here is not as high as the probability here.
ZH: 在这里买入的胜率没有在那里买入高
17:54 - 17:58
EN: Slightly lower probability, but still close to 60%
ZH: 胜率会略低一点点，但仍然接近60%的概率，
17:58 - 18:00
EN: that you’ll make a profit buying above that bull bar.
ZH: 在这根阳线上方买入可以赚钱
18:02 - 18:04
EN: Buying the breakout, very high probability.
ZH: 突破买入，胜率非常高
18:04 - 18:07
EN: Buying the pullback, slightly higher probability.
ZH: 突破、回调买入，胜率略低一点点
18:07 - 18:10
EN: Buying the pullback here, slightly lower probability.
ZH: 在这个回调买入，胜率略低一点点
18:10 - 18:15
EN: Buying here, buying here, again, lower probability the higher up you go.
ZH: 在这里买入，在这里买入，越上涨，胜率越低
Slide 012
Time: 18:20
Bilingual Transcript
18:20 - 18:24
EN: We have a bull trend and a bear breakout and a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破，窄震荡区间
18:25 - 18:28
EN: In the Tight Trading Range, we have a Double Top Lower High
ZH: 在窄震荡区间里面有一个双顶，比前期的高点低
18:29 - 18:31
EN: and a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 并且出现了一根收在最低的阴线
18:31 - 18:33
EN: This is a reasonable short.
ZH: 这是一个合理的做空机会
18:33 - 18:37
EN: You sell below that bear bar for a Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 你在那个阴线下方卖出，押注高点降低的大反转,
18:37 - 18:39
EN: stop above that high.
ZH: 止损放在那个高点上方
18:39 - 18:45
EN: Very small risk, and that tells you immediately you’re probably going to lose money.
ZH: 风险非常小，这立刻告诉了你：大概率会亏钱
18:45 - 18:48
EN: 60% of the time, you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 60%的时间，你不会赚到钱
18:48 - 18:51
EN: 40% of the time, you’re going to get a swing,
ZH: 40%的时间，你会赚到一个波段
18:51 - 18:55
EN: but the swing is so big that it more than offsets the loss.
ZH: 但波段非常大，足以抵消多次小亏损
18:55 - 18:58
EN: It’s reasonable to take that low probability short.
ZH: 这个低胜率的做空机会是合理的
19:00 - 19:03
EN: Other traders prefer high probability trades.
ZH: 其他交易者更喜欢高胜率交易
19:03 - 19:05
EN: They’ll wait for the bear breakout.
ZH: 他们会等待空头突破
19:05 - 19:10
EN: We have consecutive big bear bars closing below the low of the past 50 bars.
ZH: 连续的大阴线，收盘低于过去50根K线的最低点
19:10 - 19:14
EN: High probability that we’re going to fall for at least a Measured Move down.
ZH: 很大的概率，至少会跌到MM目标位
19:14 - 19:16
EN: From the open of the bear breakout to the close of this bar,
ZH: 从这根阴线的开盘，到这根阴线的收盘（往下翻一倍）
19:16 - 19:20
EN: we’re going to fall for a Measured Move down 60% of the time.
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到这个MM目标位
19:20 - 19:24
EN: We’re getting a pullback, so increased uncertainty,
ZH: 有一些反弹，所以不确定性增加了
19:24 - 19:29
EN: but it’s still a fairly high probability short, either below this bar or that bar.
ZH: 但这仍然是一个高胜率的做空点， 无论是在这根K线下方，还是那根K线下方
19:29 - 19:33
EN: Again, whether you take the short here or here, the stop is still here.
ZH: 再次强调，无论你在这里，还是这里开仓做空， 止损都在这里
19:33 - 19:38
EN: So the risk is greater for these high probability shorts compared to this short,
ZH: 所以相对于在这里入场做空，这些高胜率的做空点风险更大
19:38 - 19:42
EN: but the probability of making money is greater as well.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率也更高
Slide 013
Time: 19:45
Bilingual Transcript
19:52 - 19:55
EN: I’ve met many traders over the years who win 90% of the time.
ZH: 这些年来，我见过很多交易者，他们有90%的胜率
19:56 - 20:00
EN: Without asking them, I automatically know that they are scalping.
ZH: 不需要问，我就知道他们在做剥头皮交易
20:01 - 20:05
EN: If you’re winning 90% of the time, you have to have a bad risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 如果你90%的时间都在赚钱，那么你的盈亏比一定很烂
20:05 - 20:07
EN: and that usually means a very small profit.
ZH: 这通常意味着利润非常小
20:07 - 20:09
EN: In other words, you’re scalping.
ZH: 因为你在做剥头皮交易
20:10 - 20:14
EN: You cannot get a great variable (90% probability)
ZH: 获得一个很好的变量（胜率高达90%）
20:14 - 20:17
EN: without giving something else – usually risk/reward.
ZH: 必须付出代价——通常是盈亏比
20:18 - 20:20
EN: And that means you’re always giving up risk/reward.
ZH: 所以你的盈亏比一定会变差
20:20 - 20:24
EN: Usually it means you’re taking a small risk and a small profit.
ZH: 这通常代表冒小风险、赚小钱
20:25 - 20:29
EN: I have a high probability of winning; you have a good risk/reward.
ZH: 我有很高的胜率；你有好的盈亏比
20:29 - 20:32
EN: That means you lose a little, and I make a little,
ZH: 所以（大部分时间）你亏一点点，我赚一点点
20:32 - 20:34
EN: but I have a high probability of success.
ZH: 但我有很高的成功率
20:37 - 20:39
EN: These are all examples of scalps.
ZH: 这些都是剥头皮交易的例子
20:39 - 20:41
EN: You buy here, you scalp out.
ZH: 你在这里买入，然后赚快钱离场
20:41 - 20:44
EN: Here we’ve got a small bull flag, you buy above the bull bar.
ZH: 这里有一个小的牛旗，你在阳线上方买入
20:44 - 20:48
EN: You bet against the reversal down, you buy that low, you buy the reversal up.
ZH: 你押注反转下跌会失败，所以在这个低点买入， 你在反转上涨时买入
20:48 - 20:52
EN: These are all high probability trades if you’re taking small profits.
ZH: 如果你赚了就走，这些都是高胜率交易
20:52 - 20:54
EN: Therefore, they’re all scalps.
ZH: 因此，它们都是剥头皮交易
20:58 - 21:03
EN: Selling here, three pushes up – one, two, three.
ZH: 在这里卖出，3次向上推动——1，2，3
21:03 - 21:04
EN: Small Wedge, bear bar.
ZH: 小楔形，阴线
21:04 - 21:06
EN: Probably going to turn into a Trading Range.
ZH: 可能会变成震荡区间
21:06 - 21:09
EN: High probability, small risk.
ZH: 高概率，小风险
21:09 - 21:11
EN: And then these are all scalps.
ZH: 然后这些也都是剥头皮交易
21:11 - 21:15
EN: Sell the close, sell the close, sell the Low 1, sell the Low 2, sell the breakout,
ZH: 在收盘做空，在收盘做空，低1做空，低2做空，跌破的时候做空
21:15 - 21:20
EN: sell the Double Top bear flag, sell the breakout below here,
ZH: 双顶熊旗做空，跌破的时候做空
21:20 - 21:22
EN: sell the close, sell the Low 1 short.
ZH: 在收盘做空，低1做空
21:22 - 21:25
EN: All the way down.
ZH: 一路下跌，很多剥头皮的做空机会
21:23 - 21:25
EN: Lots of scalps.
ZH: 一路下跌，很多剥头皮的做空机会
21:25 - 21:31
EN: High probability of success if you’re taking a small reward
ZH: 如果你赚小钱就走——也就是做剥头皮交易的话， 成功的概率很高
21:29 - 21:31
EN: - in other words, if you’re scalping.
ZH: 如果你赚小钱就走——也就是做剥头皮交易的话， 成功的概率很高
Slide 014
Time: 21:35
Bilingual Transcript
21:39 - 21:43
EN: Whenever you take any trade, you automatically know the risk and reward.
ZH: 在做任何交易的时候，一定要知道风险和利润分别是多少
21:43 - 21:47
EN: For example, if you’re buying, you should automatically, as soon as you enter,
ZH: 例如，如果你做多了，你应该自动在入场的时候，
21:47 - 21:50
EN: put in both a stop to sell if the market goes against you
ZH: 设置一个止损，以防市场下跌；
21:50 - 21:53
EN: and another order to take profits at a reasonable target.
ZH: 同时在一个合理的目标价格设置止盈
21:54 - 21:59
EN: That distance to the profit-taking order is your reward,
ZH: 到止盈订单的距离就是利润
21:59 - 22:01
EN: and the distance to your stop is the risk.
ZH: 到止损的距离是风险
22:01 - 22:04
EN: You always know the risk and reward with every trade.
ZH: 所以你一定知道每笔交易的风险和利润是多少
22:05 - 22:08
EN: However, you don’t always know probability.
ZH: 然而，你并不知道概率是多少
22:08 - 22:10
EN: In fact, you never know probability.
ZH: 事实上，你永远不知道（某一笔交易的）概率 （注：在大量交易的数据下，概率才具有意义）
22:10 - 22:14
EN: The risk is the number of ticks or pips to your protective stop.
ZH: 风险就是到保护性止损的距离
22:14 - 22:19
EN: The reward is the number of ticks or pips to your profit-taking limit order.
ZH: 利润就是到止盈限价单的距离
22:19 - 22:23
EN: The probability – very, very important, but it’s never clear,
ZH: 概率——非常非常重要，但它总是不那么清晰
22:23 - 22:27
EN: and most traders ignore it – which is too bad, because you need
ZH: 而且大多数交易者忽略了它——这很糟糕，
22:27 - 22:30
EN: to pay attention to it if you want to structure profitable trades.
ZH: 因为如果你想构建盈利的交易策略，就必须关注概率
22:34 - 22:37
EN: A reversal down, a pair of strong bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 反转下跌，连续两根大阴线收在最低
22:37 - 22:40
EN: You sell the close, a high probability short.
ZH: 你在它的收盘开仓做空，是一笔高胜率的交易
22:41 - 22:46
EN: Your stop is either above this Sell Climax or above the top of the bear leg,
ZH: 止损要么放在这个抛售高潮的上方， 要么放在整个下跌波段的起点上方
22:46 - 22:48
EN: so you know how much you’re risking.
ZH: 所以你知道你冒了多大的风险
22:51 - 22:58
EN: With a high probability trade, you know the probability
ZH: 在高胜率的交易中，利润至少要和风险相等
22:55 - 22:58
EN: is you’ll make at least a reward equal to your risk.
ZH: 在高胜率的交易中，利润至少要和风险相等
23:01 - 23:04
EN: You sell that close, stop here or here,
ZH: 你在它的收盘卖出，止损在这里或这里
23:05 - 23:09
EN: and the Measured Move down is here, and the reward is here.
ZH: MM目标位在这里，利润是这一段距离
23:09 - 23:12
EN: A reasonable place to take at least partial profits.
ZH: 在这里止盈至少一部分是合理的
23:12 - 23:14
EN: A high probability trade.
ZH: 一笔高胜率交易
23:14 - 23:19
EN: The reward is only equal to risk, so your risk/reward ratio is 1.
ZH: 利润仅仅是等于风险，所以盈亏比是1
23:19 - 23:24
EN: That’s a low risk/reward ratio, but it’s mathematically okay
ZH: 这个盈亏比较低，但是数学上是合理的，
23:24 - 23:27
EN: because the probability of making money is high.
ZH: 因为赚钱的概率很高
Slide 015
Time: 23:30
Bilingual Transcript
23:33 - 23:34
EN: Strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势的多头突破
23:34 - 23:36
EN: I always look to the left.
ZH: 我总是看左边的背景
23:36 - 23:41
EN: I want to make sure that the market is above prior highs.
ZH: 我想确认价格是否高于前期的高点
23:41 - 23:42
EN: That it might be a bull trend.
ZH: 那么它就可能是上涨趋势
23:43 - 23:46
EN: And if I get a strong reversal down, I look to the left as well.
ZH: 如果我看到强势的下跌反转，我也会看左边
23:47 - 23:48
EN: Big Buy Climax.
ZH: 大的抢购高潮
23:49 - 23:51
EN: It could fall below that low and still be in a bull trend.
ZH: 市场可能跌破这个低点但仍然处于上涨趋势
23:52 - 23:54
EN: If it falls below the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: 但如果它跌破整个上涨趋势的起点
23:54 - 23:56
EN: then it’s no longer in a bull trend.
ZH: 那么它就不再是上涨趋势
23:56 - 23:59
EN: It’s then either in a Trading Range or bear trend.
ZH: 要么是震荡区间，要么是下降趋势
23:59 - 24:02
EN: Whenever you have a strong breakout like this, high probability
ZH: 每当出现这样的强势突破，
24:02 - 24:10
EN: that you’re making money – but you do not yet know if it’s a bull leg
ZH: 你大概率可以赚钱——但此时你并不知道这段上涨 是属于震荡区间，还是属于上涨趋势
24:07 - 24:10
EN: in a Trading Range or a bull leg in a bull trend.
ZH: 你大概率可以赚钱——但此时你并不知道这段上涨 是属于震荡区间，还是属于上涨趋势
24:11 - 24:12
EN: Not great follow-through.
ZH: 没有特别好的跟随
24:12 - 24:15
EN: Might get a deep pullback, but as long as the pullback stays
ZH: 可能会有深度回调，但只要回调保持在
24:15 - 24:19
EN: above the bottom of the bull trend, it’s still possibly a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势的起涨点上方，就仍然可能是上涨趋势
24:20 - 24:25
EN: With this big of a reversal – big up, big down – it generates big confusion.
ZH: 这样的巨大反转——大涨，大跌——会产生大的困惑
24:25 - 24:27
EN: Probably the market’s now in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场现在很可能处于震荡区间
24:28 - 24:32
EN: However, as long as it stays above this low, it’s not in a bear trend.
ZH: 然而，只要保持在这个低点之上，就不是下降趋势
24:32 - 24:34
EN: It’s either in a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 要么处于震荡区间，要么是上涨趋势
24:38 - 24:41
EN: Strong reversal down and strong follow-through.
ZH: 强势的下跌反转，跟随的阴线也很强
24:41 - 24:43
EN: At this instant, the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 此时此刻，市场暂时处于单边下跌
24:44 - 24:46
EN: However, it’s still above this low.
ZH: 然而，它仍然高于这个低点
24:46 - 24:49
EN: It could simply be a deep pullback in a bull trend
ZH: 这可能只是上涨趋势中的一次深度回调
24:49 - 24:52
EN: or a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 或者是震荡区间内的下跌波段
24:54 - 24:56
EN: Some bears will sell that close.
ZH: 一些空头会在它的收盘卖出做空
24:56 - 25:01
EN: In general, I do not because it’s still around the low of the Buy Climax
ZH: 通常我不会这么做，因为它仍然在抢购高潮的低点附近
25:01 - 25:08
EN: and it’s still above this low, so that is not a high probability sell,
ZH: 尽管有连续的阴线，但仍然高于这个低点， 所以这不是一个高胜率的做空机会
25:06 - 25:08
EN: even though we have consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 尽管有连续的阴线，但仍然高于这个低点， 所以这不是一个高胜率的做空机会
25:08 - 25:09
EN: Look to the left.
ZH: 看左边
25:09 - 25:13
EN: We’re still possibly in a Trading Range or possibly in a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 仍然可能处于震荡区间或宽上涨通道
25:13 - 25:16
EN: with Higher Lows and maybe even Higher Highs.
ZH: 低点抬高，甚至高点也有可能抬高
25:18 - 25:26
EN: It’s Always In Short, but unless you get strongly
ZH: 尽管暂时是单边下跌，但除非强势跌破抢购高潮的起点， 否则仍然有可能是空头陷阱
25:22 - 25:26
EN: below the bottom of this Buy Climax, it might be simply a bear trap,
ZH: 尽管暂时是单边下跌，但除非强势跌破抢购高潮的起点， 否则仍然有可能是空头陷阱
25:26 - 25:31
EN: trapping traders into selling low in a bull channel or a Trading Range.
ZH: 诱骗交易者在上涨通道或震荡区间的底部卖出
25:33 - 25:40
EN: You cannot tell on this chart, but this low actually fell a tiny bit
ZH: 在这张K线图上可能看不清楚， 但这个低点实际上略微跌破了抢购高潮的起点
25:38 - 25:41
EN: below the bottom of this Buy Climax – and that’s common.
ZH: 在这张K线图上可能看不清楚， 但这个低点实际上略微跌破了抢购高潮的起点 这很常见
25:41 - 25:49
EN: If you have a Buy Climax and a reversal down, usually the market tries
ZH: 如果抢购高潮之后反转下跌， 通常市场会尝试至少略微跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
25:46 - 25:49
EN: to fall at least a little bit below the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 如果抢购高潮之后反转下跌， 通常市场会尝试至少略微跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
25:49 - 25:54
EN: and then it decides whether to form a Double Bottom with that Buy Climax
ZH: 然后市场再决定，是否在那里形成一个双底，恢复上涨
25:53 - 25:58
EN: and resume up, or break below it and fall for a Measured Move
ZH: 然后市场再决定，是否在那里形成一个双底，恢复上涨 还是向下跌破，跌到MM目标位—— 把抢购高潮的高度往下翻一倍
25:56 - 25:58
EN: based upon the height of that Buy Climax.
ZH: 还是向下跌破，跌到MM目标位—— 把抢购高潮的高度往下翻一倍
26:03 - 26:05
EN: For the bulls, it’s still a bull trend,
ZH: 对于多头来说，这仍然是上涨趋势，
26:06 - 26:09
EN: and it’s a Double Bottom with a Buy Climax low.
ZH: 并且它和抢购高潮的起点形成双底
26:09 - 26:11
EN: It’s also a Higher Low.
ZH: 它也是一个更高的低点
26:11 - 26:13
EN: It’s above this low and it’s above that low.
ZH: 它高于这个低点，也高于那个低点
26:14 - 26:19
EN: Yet whenever I see a reversal down this far in a bull trend,
ZH: 然而，每当我看到在上涨趋势中出现这么大的跌幅
26:19 - 26:22
EN: chances are it’s not going to be a strong bull trend.
ZH: 我就知道这不是一个很强的上涨趋势
26:22 - 26:26
EN: More likely it’s going to be big up, big down, big confusion,
ZH: 更有可能的是大涨、大跌、大的困惑
26:26 - 26:28
EN: and confusion usually means Trading Range.
ZH: 而困惑通常意味着震荡区间
26:34 - 26:36
EN: Bulls will buy the reversal up.
ZH: 多头会买入押注反转上涨
26:36 - 26:39
EN: You buy low, sell high, and you take quick profits.
ZH: 低买、高卖，赚快钱离场
26:39 - 26:41
EN: It’s reasonable to buy this low.
ZH: 在这个低点买入是合理的
26:41 - 26:45
EN: It’s a Double Bottom with that low, and it’s still
ZH: 它和那个低点形成了双底， 而且高于上涨趋势的起涨点
26:44 - 26:45
EN: above the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: 它和那个低点形成了双底， 而且高于上涨趋势的起涨点
26:45 - 26:48
EN: so it’s still a Higher Low and a possible bull channel.
ZH: 所以低点仍在抬高，可能是上涨通道
26:49 - 26:53
EN: More likely you’re buying low in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 更有可能的是，这是潜在的震荡区间的底部
Slide 016
Time: 27:00
Bilingual Transcript
27:00 - 27:02
EN: Bull trend and a pullback.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调
27:03 - 27:07
EN: As long as the pullback stays above a 50% retracement of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 只要回调保持在抢购高潮的50%回调之上
27:07 - 27:13
EN: the probability favors higher prices, but the risk is greater
ZH: 概率就偏向多头， 但风险更大
27:13 - 27:15
EN: because your stop is down here or down here.
ZH: 因为你的止损在这里或这里
27:16 - 27:20
EN: If the market falls below the midpoint, the probability for the bulls is less,
ZH: 如果市场跌破中点，多头的胜率变低了
27:20 - 27:23
EN: but so is the risk because you’re closer to the stop.
ZH: 但风险也较小，因为止损更近了
27:23 - 27:28
EN: So buying down here, you have less probability of a bull trend,
ZH: 所以在这里买入，赚到上涨波段的概率较小
27:28 - 27:29
EN: but you also have less risk.
ZH: 但风险也比较小
27:33 - 27:42
EN: Buying up here, the probability is good, better than 50/50,
ZH: 在这里买入，胜率不错，大于50%的概率可以赚钱， 但是止损很远
27:38 - 27:42
EN: that you’ll make money, but the risk is far away,
ZH: 在这里买入，胜率不错，大于50%的概率可以赚钱， 但是止损很远
27:42 - 27:45
EN: and the reward might not be all that great as well.
ZH: 而且上涨趋势中剩余的利润并不多了
27:45 - 27:48
EN: We have a weak rally.
ZH: 后续的上涨比较弱，可能涨不了多少了
27:46 - 27:48
EN: We’re probably not going to go much higher.
ZH: 后续的上涨比较弱，可能涨不了多少了
27:49 - 27:54
EN: Buying up here, stop down here, down here, not much reward.
ZH: 在这里买入，止损在这里，这里，而剩余的利润不多
27:54 - 27:57
EN: Bad risk/reward ratio, but high probability.
ZH: 盈亏比很差，但胜率很高
27:57 - 28:03
EN: So traders buying up here, good probability but bad risk/reward.
ZH: 所以在这里买入的交易者，胜率高，但是盈亏比很糟糕
28:05 - 28:12
EN: Once it dips a little bit below the midpoint, probability drops to about 50%
ZH: 一旦它略微跌破中点， 市场仍然处于上涨趋势的概率就下降到50%左右
28:10 - 28:14
EN: that the market is still in a bull trend, but the risk is less.
ZH: 一旦它略微跌破中点， 市场仍然处于上涨趋势的概率就下降到50%左右 但风险也变小了
28:14 - 28:18
EN: So if you buy here, you’re closer to the stop here or here.
ZH: 所以如果你在这里买入，离这里或这里的止损更近
28:18 - 28:21
EN: You’re getting better risk/reward, but lower probability.
ZH: 你获得了更好的盈亏比，但胜率降低
28:24 - 28:30
EN: If you’re buying in the bottom third, the probability
ZH: 如果你在底部的三分之一买入， 市场仍处于上涨趋势的可能性就比较小了
28:27 - 28:30
EN: is less that the market’s still in a bull trend.
ZH: 市场仍处于上涨趋势的可能性就比较小了
28:30 - 28:34
EN: Maybe it’s only a 40% chance that we’re going up to a new high,
ZH: 也许只有40%的概率能涨到新高
28:34 - 28:38
EN: but the risk is less as well because the stop is here.
ZH: 但风险也较小，因为止损在这里
28:38 - 28:42
EN: Whether you buy up here, here, or here, the stop is still here.
ZH: 无论你在这里，这里，还是这里买入，止损都在这里
28:43 - 28:46
EN: As the market falls, you’re getting closer to the stop.
ZH: 随着市场下跌，你离止损更近
28:46 - 28:50
EN: If you’re entering down here, if you’re buying down here, you have less risk,
ZH: 如果你在这里入场，如果你在这里买入，你的风险较小
28:51 - 28:55
EN: but after this much of a reversal down, retracing all of the bull trend,
ZH: 但在这么大的反转下跌后——把所有的涨幅都跌回去了
28:55 - 28:59
EN: you have less probability of the market making a new high.
ZH: 市场后续创新高的概率比较小
Slide 017
Time: 29:05
Bilingual Transcript
29:07 - 29:09
EN: This is the most important price for the bears.
ZH: 这是空头最重要的价格
29:09 - 29:11
EN: It’s the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 它是上涨趋势的起点
29:12 - 29:16
EN: The bears want to get below this low because if it gets below this low,
ZH: 空头想要跌破这个低点，因为如果跌破这个低点，
29:16 - 29:19
EN: the market’s no longer in a bull trend.
ZH: 市场就不再处于上涨趋势
29:19 - 29:22
EN: It’s then either in a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 而是处于震荡区间或下降趋势
29:22 - 29:24
EN: As long as it stays above this low,
ZH: 只要价格保持在这个低点上方
29:24 - 29:27
EN: it’s either in a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 就是上涨趋势或震荡区间
Slide 018
Time: 29:35
Bilingual Transcript
29:37 - 29:41
EN: When you’re getting a selloff like this down to the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 当你看到市场这样跌到抢购高潮的起点时
29:41 - 29:46
EN: you just don’t know if it’s simply a test of the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 你不知道这是否只是对抢购高潮起点的测试
29:46 - 29:49
EN: As I said, when you get a reversal down after a Buy Climax,
ZH: 就像之前所说，抢购高潮之后的反转下跌
29:49 - 29:53
EN: the market usually gets at least a little bit below the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 市场通常会至少略微跌破抢购高潮的起点
29:53 - 29:57
EN: and then you don’t know if there are a lot of dollars buying down here,
ZH: 然后你不知道是否有很多资金会在这里买入
29:57 - 29:59
EN: looking for a trend resumption up.
ZH: 押注趋势恢复上涨
30:00 - 30:06
EN: Is the market going to form a Higher Low and be in a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 不知道低点是否会抬高，进入宽上涨通道
30:06 - 30:09
EN: or is this an actual reversal
ZH: 还是说，这确实是反转，
30:09 - 30:12
EN: that will break below the bottom of the bull trend and become a bear trend?
ZH: 会跌破整个上涨趋势的起点，然后变成下降趋势
30:15 - 30:20
EN: Strong reversal up, 5 consecutive bull bars, 8 bars without a bear body.
ZH: 强势的反转上涨，连续5根阳线， 连续8根K线没有阴线
30:20 - 30:22
EN: We’re back to Always In Long.
ZH: 市场回到了单边上涨
30:23 - 30:25
EN: That makes a bear trend unlikely.
ZH: 所以不太可能是下降趋势了
30:25 - 30:29
EN: Now we’re probably either in a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 现在要么处于上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
30:35 - 30:39
EN: Any time I see a strong breakout, I always look to the left.
ZH: 每当我看到强势的突破，我总是看左边的背景
Slide 019
Time: 30:35
Bilingual Transcript
30:39 - 30:44
EN: Is the breakout above all of the bars, or just above some of the bars?
ZH: 突破是高于所有K线，还是只是高于某些K线？
30:44 - 30:52
EN: If it’s still below this high, this rally could simply be a second leg up
ZH: 如果它仍然低于这个高点，那么这段上涨可能只是 宽下降通道中的第2段陷阱——1，回调，2
30:49 - 30:52
EN: in a Broad Bear Channel – first leg, pullback, second leg
ZH: 宽下降通道中的第2段陷阱——1，回调，2
30:52 - 30:54
EN: - or a second leg up in a Trading Range.
ZH: 或者说是震荡区间中的第2段陷阱
30:55 - 30:59
EN: Even though the market is Always In Long, maybe by the close of this bar,
ZH: 也许在这根K线收盘的时候，市场已经暂时处于单边上涨，
30:59 - 31:02
EN: that does not mean bull trend.
ZH: 但这不代表（整体）是上涨趋势
31:02 - 31:07
EN: It could simply be a bull leg in a bear channel or a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这可能只是宽下降通道，或震荡区间中的一段上涨
31:09 - 31:11
EN: Breakout, follow-through.
ZH: 突破，跟随
31:11 - 31:14
EN: You can call it a Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 你可以说它是头肩底——左肩、头、右肩
31:14 - 31:17
EN: Bear trend, Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 下降趋势，低点抬高的大反转
31:17 - 31:20
EN: A breakout and follow-through above the neckline.
ZH: 突破颈线，并且有跟随的阳线
31:20 - 31:21
EN: We’re Always In Long.
ZH: 暂时是单边上涨
31:21 - 31:23
EN: We might go up for a Measured Move.
ZH: 很可能会涨到MM目标位
31:23 - 31:26
EN: It might in fact be the start of a bull trend,
ZH: 它确实有可能是上涨趋势的开始
31:26 - 31:30
EN: but unless it gets above the top of the most recent Lower High,
ZH: 但除非它突破最近的重要高点，
31:30 - 31:39
EN: it’s still in a bear trend, and this could be simply a bull leg
ZH: 那么市场就仍然处于下降趋势 这可能只是宽下降通道，或震荡区间内的上涨波段而已
31:36 - 31:39
EN: within a Broad Bear Channel or a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这可能只是宽下降通道，或震荡区间内的上涨波段而已
31:41 - 31:48
EN: Traders will buy the close, confident that the probability is high
ZH: 交易者会在它的收盘买入， 确信很大的概率，涨幅至少足够让自己赚一些小钱
31:45 - 31:48
EN: that we’re going at least enough up to make a profit.
ZH: 确信很大的概率，涨幅至少足够让自己赚一些小钱
31:50 - 31:52
EN: However, unless we get above this high,
ZH: 然而，除非突破这个高点
31:52 - 31:55
EN: this rally is simply a Double Top Lower High,
ZH: 不然这就只是高点降低的双顶
31:56 - 32:00
EN: or you can call it simply a Lower High in possibly a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 或者你可以说它是宽下降通道中一个降低的高点
32:00 - 32:03
EN: and traders will look to sell the reversal down.
ZH: 交易者会等待反转下跌的做空机会
32:06 - 32:08
EN: Two legs up, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2
32:08 - 32:13
EN: This could be a 2nd Leg Trap, trapping traders into thinking it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 这可能是第2段陷阱，诱骗交易者认为这是上涨趋势
32:13 - 32:17
EN: But if you look to the left, we have not gone
ZH: 但如果你看左边的背景， 就知道还没有突破最近一个重要高点
32:15 - 32:20
EN: above the most recent major Lower High, and therefore this could simply be a trap,
ZH: 但如果你看左边的背景， 就知道还没有突破最近一个重要高点 所以这很可能只是一个的多头陷阱
32:20 - 32:25
EN: tricking traders into buying too high
ZH: 诱骗交易者在宽下降通道或震荡区间的顶部买入
32:22 - 32:25
EN: in either a bear channel or in a Trading Range.
ZH: 诱骗交易者在宽下降通道或震荡区间的顶部买入
32:27 - 32:29
EN: You can sell the reversal down there or,
ZH: 你可以在那里做空押注反转下跌，
32:29 - 32:32
EN: higher probability, sell this reversal down here.
ZH: 或者在这里做空，胜率更高
32:32 - 32:33
EN: Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 双顶熊旗
32:40 - 32:46
EN: Strong bull swing, but still possibly a pullback from this strong leg down.
ZH: 强势的上涨波段，但仍然可能只是这段像是下跌之后的反弹
Slide 020
Time: 32:40
Bilingual Transcript
32:46 - 32:50
EN: Unless we get above that high, a major Lower High,
ZH: 除非突破那个高点，那个重要的高点
32:50 - 32:52
EN: no matter how strong this rally is,
ZH: 否则，不管这段上涨多么强势，
32:52 - 32:55
EN: it still could be simply a pullback from this selloff.
ZH: 它仍然可能只是这段抛售之后的反弹
33:00 - 33:01
EN: Here’s a 50% pullback.
ZH: 50%反弹在这里
33:02 - 33:05
EN: As long as the market stays below the 50% pullback,
ZH: 只要价格保持在50%反弹之下，
33:06 - 33:10
EN: then the probability is at least 50% chance that we’re going lower.
ZH: 那么至少有50%的概率会继续下跌
33:11 - 33:14
EN: Below the 50% pullback, the probability favors the bears.
ZH: 如果反弹幅度小于50%，那么概率偏向空头
33:18 - 33:22
EN: The bears selling here have greater risk.
ZH: 在这里做空的空头，承担了更大的风险
33:22 - 33:25
EN: They have higher probability; that’s always accompanied with greater risk.
ZH: 他们有更高的胜率，这总是伴随着更大的风险
33:30 - 33:32
EN: The bulls need to break above this Lower High.
ZH: 多头需要突破这个重要高点
33:32 - 33:35
EN: Otherwise, we could still be in a bear trend.
ZH: 否则，市场仍然处于下降趋势
33:40 - 33:42
EN: Again, if it gets above the Lower High,
ZH: 再次强调，如果它突破了这个重要高点
33:42 - 33:47
EN: it’s no longer a bear trend because a bear trend needs Lower Highs.
ZH: 就不再是下降趋势，因为下降趋势需要高点降低
Slide 021
Time: 33:55
Bilingual Transcript
33:55 - 33:59
EN: Down here, the risk is great for the bears
ZH: 在这里，做空的风险很大
33:59 - 34:03
EN: - their stop is way up here – and the probability is high.
ZH: 因为止损在很上面的地方，但胜率高
34:04 - 34:09
EN: If you’re selling down here, the reward might simply be a Measured Move down
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，利润目标可能只是这个小震荡区间的MM
34:08 - 34:09
EN: based upon the height of this Trading Range.
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，利润目标可能只是这个小震荡区间的MM
34:09 - 34:13
EN: We have a Double Top bear flag, and the risk is greater than that.
ZH: 这是一个双顶熊旗，但风险比利润大
34:14 - 34:17
EN: The distance to this high, if you’re selling down here,
ZH: 止损在这个高点上方，而你在这里开仓做空，
34:17 - 34:20
EN: is greater than a Measured Move down.
ZH: 止损大于这个MM目标位
34:20 - 34:24
EN: So the reward is less than the risk, so it’s a bad risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 所以利润小于风险，因此盈亏比很糟糕
34:24 - 34:30
EN: but a high probability of making money for the bears
ZH: 但对于空头来说，在这里做空，把止损放在上方， 赚到钱的概率很高
34:28 - 34:30
EN: if they’re selling down here and stop up here.
ZH: 但对于空头来说，在这里做空，把止损放在上方， 赚到钱的概率很高
34:31 - 34:34
EN: If you start selling above the 50% pullback,
ZH: 如果你在50%反弹的上方卖出做空，
34:34 - 34:39
EN: the risk is getting less because the stop is getting closer,
ZH: 风险变小了，因为止损更近了，
34:39 - 34:43
EN: and the probability is getting less as well, the probability for the bears.
ZH: 但空头赚到钱的概率也在变小，
34:44 - 34:47
EN: And if you’re selling in the top third of the bear leg,
ZH: 如果你在下跌波段的顶部三分之一卖出做空
34:47 - 34:51
EN: there’s a greater chance that we’ll get a break above the protective stop,
ZH: 保护性止损被打到的概率就更大，
34:51 - 34:54
EN: a greater chance that this is a Trading Range instead of a bear trend.
ZH: 这更有可能会是震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
34:55 - 34:58
EN: It’s 60% chance of the bulls getting above that high
ZH: 多头有60%的概率突破那个高点
34:58 - 35:02
EN: and only a 40% chance of the bears getting to a new low.
ZH: 空头只有40%的概率会跌到新低
35:03 - 35:07
EN: But the risk for the bears is less because they’re very close to the stop,
ZH: 但空头的风险较小，因为他们离止损更近
35:07 - 35:09
EN: and the reward is greater.
ZH: 而且潜在利润更大
35:09 - 35:10
EN: It’s very far away.
ZH: 新低在很远的地方
35:11 - 35:14
EN: Bears selling up here have a much better risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头有更好的盈亏比
35:14 - 35:17
EN: but a much smaller probability of making money.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率要小得多
35:18 - 35:23
EN: Down here, bears have worse risk/reward, but higher probability.
ZH: 在这里，做空的盈亏比很差，但胜率更高
35:27 - 35:32
EN: In the bottom half of the bear trend, the probability favors the bears.
ZH: 在下降趋势的下半部分，概率偏向空头
Slide 022
Time: 35:30
Bilingual Transcript
35:32 - 35:35
EN: 60% chance we’re going to a new low.
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到新低
35:36 - 35:40
EN: And the probability gets less the higher up the market goes,
ZH: 随着市场上涨，空头的胜率会变小
35:40 - 35:43
EN: and the risk/reward ratio gets better for the bears.
ZH: 但盈亏比越来越好
35:43 - 35:46
EN: The risk is less, and the reward is greater.
ZH: 风险更小，利润更大
35:49 - 35:53
EN: In the top third, the risk/reward clearly favors the bears.
ZH: 在顶部三分之一，显然空头的盈亏比更好
35:53 - 35:59
EN: The chance of a new low is less, but the reward is very big relative to the risk.
ZH: 尽管跌到新低的概率比较低， 但相对于风险，潜在利润非常大
36:04 - 36:09
EN: When you have a strong rally like this, but it’s below the top of the bear trend,
ZH: 当你看到这样的强势反弹，但仍然低于下降趋势的起跌点时
Slide 023
Time: 36:05
Bilingual Transcript
36:09 - 36:13
EN: you don’t know how many dollars waiting to sell,
ZH: 你并不知道有多少资金在等着卖出
36:13 - 36:18
EN: how many dollars view this as simply a buy vacuum test of resistance.
ZH: 并不知道有多少资金把它看作是对顶部阻力的真空测试
36:18 - 36:22
EN: Is this simply a 2nd Leg Trap – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2
ZH: 是否只是第2段陷阱——1，回调，2
36:22 - 36:24
EN: - with a lot of bears looking to sell in the upper third?
ZH: 会有很多空头等着在顶部三分之一卖出做空？
36:24 - 36:27
EN: You don’t know until you see the reversal down.
ZH: 直到看到下跌反转，才知道
36:31 - 36:36
EN: The probability favors the bulls, but the risk/reward is better for the bears.
ZH: 概率偏向多头，但空头的盈亏比更好
36:36 - 36:39
EN: There are always bears willing to sell.
ZH: 总是有空头愿意卖出做空
36:39 - 36:43
EN: Once you see the reversal down, the probability is getting better for the bears,
ZH: 一旦你看到价格开始反转下跌，空头的胜率就在变高
36:43 - 36:47
EN: but if you sell down here, the risk is greater.
ZH: 但如果你在这里卖出，风险更大
36:51 - 36:55
EN: In this video, I talked about risk, reward, and probability,
ZH: 这节课，我主要讲了风险、利润和概率
Slide 024
Time: 36:55
Bilingual Transcript
36:55 - 36:58
EN: and I tried to emphasize the importance of probability.
ZH: 并且我尝试强调概率的重要性
36:58 - 37:01
EN: A trader cannot simply think about a risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 交易者不能只考虑盈亏比
37:02 - 37:07
EN: A great risk/reward ratio is meaningless
ZH: 如果赚钱的概率非常小，盈亏比再好也没有意义
37:04 - 37:07
EN: if the probability of making money is very small.
ZH: 如果赚钱的概率非常小，盈亏比再好也没有意义
37:11 - 37:12
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
37:12 - 37:14
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
37:14 - 37:19
EN: This is the second of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and Probability.
ZH: 数学期望和概率的第2节课，就先讲到这里