al-brooks-course
33A - Protective Stops
Raw transcript and slide notes for 33A - Protective Stops.
Overview
- Slides: 18
- Transcript segments: 454
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 接下来的7节课，我们来讲保护性止损
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I’ll begin by answering the obvious question: why use stops?
ZH: 首先我会回答一个显而易见的问题： 为什么要设置止损？
00:19 - 00:23
EN: And the answer is, to protect yourself mostly against yourself.
ZH: 答案是，为了保护自己，主要是防止自己犯错
00:24 - 00:29
EN: A stop is useful in determining what your position size would be.
ZH: 交易者可以通过止损距离来确定仓位的大小
00:29 - 00:32
EN: Since the distance to your stop is a measure of your risk,
ZH: 因为止损距离是风险的衡量标准
00:32 - 00:37
EN: that allows you to determine what your appropriate position size should be.
ZH: 你可以根据它来确定仓位的规模
Slide 002
Time: 00:38
Bilingual Transcript
00:39 - 00:46
EN: Experienced traders always have protective stops
ZH: 经验丰富的交易者永远都会挂上保护性的止损单， 而不是只把止损放在脑子里
00:43 - 00:46
EN: in the market, not just in their heads.
ZH: 经验丰富的交易者永远都会挂上保护性的止损单， 而不是只把止损放在脑子里
00:54 - 01:00
EN: The purpose of a protective stop is to protect you,
ZH: 保护性止损的目的是保护你，保护你免受许多事情的影响
00:57 - 01:00
EN: and to protect you against many things.
ZH: 保护性止损的目的是保护你，保护你免受许多事情的影响
01:00 - 01:03
EN: For example, there may be some surprise move
ZH: 例如，可能会有一些意外的波动，
01:03 - 01:07
EN: that is much bigger against you than what you expected.
ZH: 比你预期的坏情况还要糟糕得多
01:07 - 01:13
EN: There may be problems with your computer, with your internet connection,
ZH: 你的电脑、网络、券商、甚至交易所，都可能会出现问题
01:10 - 01:13
EN: problems with your broker, problems with the exchange.
ZH: 你的电脑、网络、券商、甚至交易所，都可能会出现问题
01:13 - 01:17
EN: All kinds of problems, and a stop does give you a high degree of protection
ZH: 面对各种问题，止损能够为你提供高度的保护
01:17 - 01:21
EN: - not absolute, but a very high degree of protection.
ZH: ——虽然不是绝对的保护，但很大程度上可以提供保护 （注：前两节课讲到过例外情况）
01:21 - 01:26
EN: Most importantly, a stop protects you against yourself.
ZH: 最重要的是，止损是保护你不被自己伤害
01:26 - 01:30
EN: Traders often get emotional, especially when they’re starting out,
ZH: 交易者往往会情绪化，尤其是在他们刚开始的时候， 他们会充满希望
01:29 - 01:30
EN: and they get hopeful.
ZH: 交易者往往会情绪化，尤其是在他们刚开始的时候， 他们会充满希望
01:30 - 01:34
EN: The market starts to go against them and they don’t want to take a loss.
ZH: 当市场开始反向移动时，他们不想认亏离场
01:34 - 01:37
EN: They keep the stop in their head, not in the market.
ZH: 他们把止损放在脑子里，而不是挂在市场上
01:37 - 01:39
EN: The market goes through the stop in their head.
ZH: 市场突破了他们脑中的止损位
01:39 - 01:44
EN: They create a new fictitious stop, and the losses just keep growing
ZH: 然后他们就重新想出一个新的止损位，
01:44 - 01:47
EN: as the trader never exits the losing trade.
ZH: 导致亏损不断变大，因为他们一直不愿意止损离场
01:51 - 01:54
EN: A stop means that you have to stop what you’re doing.
ZH: 止损的意思是，你必须停止你正在做的事情
01:54 - 01:55
EN: It’s absolute.
ZH: 这是不容置疑的
01:55 - 02:00
EN: You get out, and take the loss if it’s a loss, but you get out.
ZH: 亏了就亏了，你必须要离场
02:04 - 02:08
EN: Don’t question whether you should get out, whether you should move your stop.
ZH: 不要质疑你是否应该离场，是否应该移动你的止损
02:08 - 02:13
EN: You put your stop where you put it because it made sense
ZH: 在入场的时候，你把止损放在你认为合理的地方，
02:11 - 02:21
EN: at the time you put the trade on, and if the market’s going against you
ZH: 在入场的时候，你把止损放在你认为合理的地方， 当市场反向移动，你现在却开始质疑这个止损是否正确， 说明你正在变得情绪化
02:15 - 02:21
EN: and you’re now questioning whether your stop is in the correct place,
ZH: 当市场反向移动，你现在却开始质疑这个止损是否正确， 说明你正在变得情绪化
02:19 - 02:21
EN: you’re probably getting emotional.
ZH: 当市场反向移动，你现在却开始质疑这个止损是否正确， 说明你正在变得情绪化
02:21 - 02:25
EN: And that’s the very thing the stop is designed to prevent.
ZH: 止损单就是为了防止这件事
02:25 - 02:31
EN: It’s designed to prevent you from allowing emotions to influence your decisions.
ZH: 它的目的是：防止你让情绪影响你的决定
02:31 - 02:35
EN: So let your stop be hit if it’s going to be hit, and don’t move it.
ZH: 所以，如果你的止损即将被打到， 那就让他被打到，不要去移动它
02:35 - 02:39
EN: Simply get out and wait for the next signal, knowing that losing is part
ZH: 直接离场，等待下一个信号，因为亏损是交易的一部分
02:39 - 02:43
EN: of trading and the protective stop keeps you from losing too much.
ZH: 保护性止损可以防止你有大的亏损
02:51 - 02:54
EN: I think it’s very important to understand that when you’re managing a trade,
ZH: 我认为理解这一点非常重要：当你在管理交易的时候，
02:54 - 02:58
EN: it has nothing to do with where you entered the trade.
ZH: 你之前在哪里入场并不重要
02:58 - 03:02
EN: It has only to do with what the market is currently doing at the moment.
ZH: 重要的是现在市场的价格行为
03:02 - 03:14
EN: Every instant that there’s a new tick on the chart up or down,
ZH: 每当价格有新的变化，你就获得了新的信息， 你应该根据这些新的信息去管理你的交易， 而不是根据你入场的位置
03:06 - 03:14
EN: you have new information, and the management is based upon
ZH: 你应该根据这些新的信息去管理你的交易， 而不是根据你入场的位置
03:10 - 03:14
EN: that new information, not based upon where you entered.
ZH: 你应该根据这些新的信息去管理你的交易， 而不是根据你入场的位置
03:14 - 03:18
EN: It doesn’t matter if you buy here or buy here; the stop is still there.
ZH: 无论你在这里买入，还是在这里买入
03:19 - 03:23
EN: For example, you could buy any one of these bull flags.
ZH: 例如，你可以在这里的任何一个牛旗买入做多
03:26 - 03:31
EN: Any time you enter the market,
ZH: 在你入场之后，通常有几种合理的止损选择
03:27 - 03:31
EN: there are usually several reasonable choices for stops.
ZH: 在你入场之后，通常有几种合理的止损选择
03:33 - 03:37
EN: For example, if you buy here or here, you could put a stop here,
ZH: 例如，如果你在这里或这里买入，你可以把止损放在这里
03:37 - 03:40
EN: arguing that you have a High 2 – High 1, High 2.
ZH: 因为你把看作是高2买入点——高1，高2
03:40 - 03:44
EN: You do not want it to fall below the bottom of the High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 你不希望它跌破高2牛旗的最低点
03:44 - 03:48
EN: However, you have a strong reversal up, and this is a major Higher Low,
ZH: 然而，多头强势反转之后，这个是重要的低点
03:48 - 03:50
EN: a breakout to a new Trading Range high.
ZH: 突破了左边震荡区间的高点
03:50 - 03:53
EN: Not a breakout to a new high on the chart,
ZH: 没有超过整个下降趋势的最高点，
03:53 - 03:55
EN: but a strong breakout to a new Trading Range high.
ZH: 但是强势突破了震荡区间，创了新高
03:55 - 03:58
EN: This is also an appropriate stop.
ZH: 止损放在这里也是合理的
03:59 - 04:01
EN: If you buy here or here, this is a good place for a stop.
ZH: 如果你在这里或这里买入，这是一个合理的止损位置
04:01 - 04:03
EN: This is also a good place for a stop.
ZH: 这也是一个合理的止损位置
04:08 - 04:16
EN: Let’s say the market has started to go up and you’re at this point,
ZH: 假设市场涨到了这里，你在这里，或者这里买入， 大多数交易者会把止损放在这个低点下方（红色线）
04:12 - 04:16
EN: or if you buy here, most traders would put their stop below this low.
ZH: 假设市场涨到了这里，你在这里，或者这里买入， 大多数交易者会把止损放在这个低点下方（红色线）
04:16 - 04:19
EN: This is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 这是一个重要的低点
04:19 - 04:21
EN: We have a strong breakout and a new high.
ZH: 因为它后面有强势的突破、创新高
04:21 - 04:27
EN: Anyone who is holding long after this breakout takes place,
ZH: 突破之后，所有还持仓做多的人， 会把止损移动 / 放到这里
04:25 - 04:27
EN: he would have his stop here.
ZH: 突破之后，所有还持仓做多的人， 会把止损移动 / 放到这里
04:27 - 04:31
EN: It doesn’t matter if he bought here or here, or if he bought here.
ZH: 无论他们是在这里、这里、或者在这里买入
04:31 - 04:37
EN: At this point, the stop for all of those traders
ZH: 在这个时候，都会把止损放在这个低点下方
04:34 - 04:37
EN: probably is going to be right here.
ZH: 在这个时候，都会把止损放在这个低点下方
04:37 - 04:41
EN: Again, it doesn’t matter where you buy; stop placement is determined by
ZH: 再次强调，你买入的位置并不重要； 市场当前的价格行为决定了止损的位置
04:41 - 04:49
EN: what the market is currently doing, and once you’ve had a strong breakout
ZH: 在市场强势突破创新高之后， 通常把止损放在新的重要低点下方，是最好的选择
04:45 - 04:49
EN: to a new high and a bull channel, it’s usually better
ZH: 在市场强势突破创新高之后， 通常把止损放在新的重要低点下方，是最好的选择
04:48 - 04:49
EN: to put your stop below that low.
ZH: 在市场强势突破创新高之后， 通常把止损放在新的重要低点下方，是最好的选择
04:50 - 04:54
EN: After this strong breakout and follow-through, if the market falls
ZH: 在这样的强势突破和跟随之后，如果市场跌破这个低点，
04:54 - 04:58
EN: below that low, then your premise of a bull channel is probably no longer valid.
ZH: 那么市场处于上涨趋势的前提可能已经不再成立
04:58 - 05:04
EN: The market then would either be in a Trading Range
ZH: 市场很可能会进入震荡区间，甚至反转成下降趋势
05:01 - 05:04
EN: or possibly even a bear trend, and therefore,
ZH: 市场很可能会进入震荡区间，甚至反转成下降趋势
05:04 - 05:07
EN: since your premise is no longer valid, you get out.
ZH: 既然你入场的前提不再成立，那就应该离场
05:07 - 05:09
EN: Again, it doesn’t matter where you bought
ZH: 再讲一遍，无论你在哪里买入，
05:09 - 05:12
EN: - if you bought up here, if you bought down here.
ZH: 在这里追涨，还是在底部就买入了
05:12 - 05:17
EN: Once you’ve seen this and the market’s now up here or anywhere in here,
ZH: 只要你看到新的突破，市场涨到了这个位置，
05:17 - 05:21
EN: this is a good, reasonable location for your stop.
ZH: 那么它就是一个好的、合理的止损位置
Slide 003
Time: 05:25
Bilingual Transcript
05:28 - 05:30
EN: We have a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转
05:30 - 05:33
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout, Higher Low.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破，低点抬高
05:33 - 05:35
EN: You can also call it a Head and Shoulders Bottom.
ZH: 你也可以说它是头肩底
05:35 - 05:38
EN: We have a breakout, 50% pullback.
ZH: 突破之后，50%回调
05:38 - 05:41
EN: A strong breakout – two legs down, one, two.
ZH: 强势的突破——然后两段回调——1，2
05:41 - 05:42
EN: Second entry buy.
ZH: 这里是第2做多入场点
05:42 - 05:43
EN: You can call it a Wedge.
ZH: 你也可以把它看作楔形牛旗
05:43 - 05:46
EN: Three pushes down – High 1, High 2, High 3.
ZH: 3次向下推动——高1，高2，高3
05:46 - 05:50
EN: In any case, you have a very good-looking buy signal bar
ZH: 总之，它是一个非常不错的做多信号K线
05:50 - 05:53
EN: and a Higher Low around a 50% pullback of this leg up.
ZH: 低点抬高，同时也是这段上涨的50%回调附近
05:54 - 05:56
EN: It’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 这是一个合理的买点
05:59 - 06:04
EN: A lot of traders only think of stops as either being very wide or very tight.
ZH: 很多交易者认为止损要么很宽，要么很窄
06:06 - 06:09
EN: Some traders use other terms as well.
ZH: 一些交易者也用其他的词汇来描述
06:17 - 06:20
EN: For example, a trader buying above here,
ZH: 例如，多头在它的上方买入
06:20 - 06:23
EN: he could put his stop here, which is fairly tight.
ZH: 他可以把止损放在这里，这是很窄的止损
06:23 - 06:25
EN: I would call that a price action stop.
ZH: 我称之为“价格行为止损”
06:25 - 06:29
EN: You’re placing the stop based upon the current price action.
ZH: 因为你根据市场当前的价格行为来确定止损的位置
06:29 - 06:35
EN: You have a Wedge bull flag, a High 2 at the second entry buy,
ZH: 这是一个楔形牛旗，也是高2的第2做多入场点， 很好的做多信号K
06:32 - 06:35
EN: a very strong bull signal bar.
ZH: 这是一个楔形牛旗，也是高2的第2做多入场点， 很好的做多信号K
06:35 - 06:39
EN: That’s a reasonable place to put your stop based upon the current price action.
ZH: 基于当前的价格行为，把止损放在这里是合理的
06:39 - 06:40
EN: So is this.
ZH: 这里也是
06:40 - 06:43
EN: This is a major Higher Low, a break to a new high
ZH: 这是一个重要的低点，之后突破创新高，
06:43 - 06:46
EN: above this high, and a strong rally.
ZH: 比它高，是一段强势的上涨
06:46 - 06:49
EN: The market should not fall below this low if it’s in a bull trend.
ZH: 如果市场处于上涨趋势，就不应该跌破这个低点
06:49 - 06:53
EN: If it falls below this low, then the market’s not in a bull trend.
ZH: 如果这个低点被跌破，就说明市场并不处于上涨趋势
06:53 - 06:57
EN: It’s either in a Trading Range or possibly a bear trend.
ZH: 它要么处于震荡区间，甚至可能是下降趋势
07:01 - 07:06
EN: Some traders like to use a money stop – for example, they might use a stop
ZH: 一些交易者喜欢用“固定金额止损”—— 例如，他们会把止损放在入场点下方10 ticks的位置
07:06 - 07:15
EN: that is 10 ticks below their entry price, or 10 pips below their entry price
ZH: （或者10 pips，如果是外汇） 或者亏100美元时止损离场
07:10 - 07:15
EN: in a Forex trade, or maybe $100 below their entry.
ZH: （或者10 pips，如果是外汇） 或者亏100美元时止损离场
07:15 - 07:20
EN: Maybe 10 pips below or 10 ticks below the signal bar.
ZH: 也可能放在信号K低点下方10 ticks（或pips）
07:20 - 07:22
EN: Some traders will look to scale in below.
ZH: 一些交易者会考虑在下方加仓买入 （那么初始的保护性止损就会更宽）
07:22 - 07:30
EN: But anyway, the point is a money stop is based upon the number of ticks or pips
ZH: 总之，他们的止损是基于一个绝对的点数或者金额， 而不仅仅基于价格行为
07:26 - 07:30
EN: or a dollar amount rather than simply based upon the price action.
ZH: 总之，他们的止损是基于一个绝对的点数或者金额， 而不仅仅基于价格行为
07:35 - 07:40
EN: Other traders just use very wide stops,
ZH: 还有一些人会使用非常宽的初始止损， 宽止损可以是基于价格行为的
07:38 - 07:40
EN: and sometimes they’ll be based upon the price action.
ZH: 还有一些人会使用非常宽的初始止损， 宽止损可以是基于价格行为的
07:40 - 07:45
EN: For example, they might put a stop below the entire bull trend
ZH: 例如，他们可能会把止损放在整个上涨趋势的起点下方
07:44 - 07:53
EN: all the way down here, or they may use a stop that’s several hundred dollars
ZH: 例如，他们可能会把止损放在整个上涨趋势的起点下方 或者把亏损限定在几百美金， 或者放在入场点下方30，40，50 pips / ticks的地方
07:47 - 07:53
EN: below their entry price, or 30, 40, or 50 ticks,
ZH: 或者把亏损限定在几百美金， 或者放在入场点下方30，40，50 pips / ticks的地方
07:50 - 07:53
EN: 30, 40, 50 pips below their entry price.
ZH: 或者把亏损限定在几百美金， 或者放在入场点下方30，40，50 pips / ticks的地方
07:53 - 07:56
EN: And that is an example of a wide stop,
ZH: 这就是一个宽止损的例子
07:56 - 08:00
EN: which could be a money stop or price action stop.
ZH: 可以是价格行为止损，也可以是固定金额止损
08:03 - 08:06
EN: You could put a stop based upon a Measured Move.
ZH: 你也可以把止损放在MM目标位的地方
08:06 - 08:07
EN: We have a strong breakout.
ZH: 多头强势突破
08:07 - 08:11
EN: It should lead to a Measured Move up or down.
ZH: 应该会去到向上或向下的MM目标位
08:11 - 08:17
EN: If the market starts to reverse, some traders will want to give the market room
ZH: 如果市场开始反转，一些交易者希望给市场留一些空间，
08:17 - 08:20
EN: in case the market forms a Trading Range instead of a bear trend.
ZH: 以防市场形成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势 （注：防止假突破打掉止损）
08:21 - 08:28
EN: A logical location for the stop would be just at
ZH: 逻辑上合理的止损位置， 通常就是在（反向）MM目标位的下方
08:24 - 08:28
EN: or below a Measured Move down – usually just below a Measured Move down.
ZH: 逻辑上合理的止损位置， 通常就是在（反向）MM目标位的下方
08:34 - 08:39
EN: Once the market starts to go your way, you raise your stop in a bull trend,
ZH: 市场开始按照预期上涨之后， 你再根据重要的低点抬高止损
08:39 - 08:41
EN: and that is called a trailing stop.
ZH: 这叫做“追踪止损”
08:41 - 08:45
EN: If your stop was initially here and then we got a breakout here,
ZH: 如果你的止损一开始放在这里， 当市场再次突破之后，
08:45 - 08:49
EN: a lot of traders will put their stop below the most
ZH: 很多交易者会把止损移动到最近一个重要低点的下方， 也就是这里
08:47 - 08:49
EN: recent major Higher Low, which is right here.
ZH: 很多交易者会把止损移动到最近一个重要低点的下方， 也就是这里
08:49 - 08:52
EN: That’s called trailing the stop up.
ZH: 这叫做抬高止损
08:52 - 08:54
EN: After every strong breakout to a new high,
ZH: 每次市场强势突破创新高，
08:54 - 08:59
EN: raise the stop to below the bottom of that major Higher Low.
ZH: 就可以把止损抬高到最新的重要低点下方
09:04 - 09:08
EN: Lots of decent stop entry buys in a bull trend.
ZH: 在上涨趋势中，有很多好的突破单入场点（绿色框框）
Slide 004
Time: 09:05
Bilingual Transcript
09:13 - 09:15
EN: Most experienced traders will get out
ZH: 大部分经验丰富的交易者会在这个重要低点的下方离场
09:15 - 09:18
EN: below the bottom of the most recent major Higher Low.
09:18 - 09:20
EN: Is this a major Higher Low here? I don’t know.
ZH: 它是一个重要的低点吗？不好说
09:20 - 09:22
EN: The breakout’s not all that strong.
ZH: 突破并不是那么强势
09:22 - 09:26
EN: Here we have a decent bull bar, decent follow-through,
ZH: 这根大阳线后面有阳线跟随，然后继续上涨
09:25 - 09:26
EN: and then additional follow-through.
ZH: 这根大阳线后面有阳线跟随，然后继续上涨
09:26 - 09:31
EN: This is, I think, a fairly important price – as is this and as is this.
ZH: 所以我认为它是一个非常重要的价格——就像它和它一样
09:31 - 09:35
EN: These are all major Higher Lows, here, here, and here.
ZH: 这些都是重要的低点，这里，这里和这里
09:35 - 09:40
EN: Most bulls, no matter where they bought, if they were still long up here
ZH: 大多数多头，无论他们在哪里买入， 如果他们此时仍然持有多头仓位，
09:40 - 09:44
EN: and we had this surprise bar, they would have a stop
ZH: 然后遇到这根意外的大阴线， 他们在这个低点下方的止损（突破卖单）就会被触发，
09:43 - 09:46
EN: below this bar and they would get out right here.
ZH: 然后遇到这根意外的大阴线， 他们在这个低点下方的止损（突破卖单）就会被触发， 在这个位置离场
09:53 - 09:57
EN: Some instead would have a stop down here or here.
ZH: 有些人的止损可能放在这里或这里
09:57 - 10:05
EN: Once they saw this big bear bar, they would conclude the bear bar was big enough
ZH: 但是他们看到这么大的阴线，会得出结论， 这个阴线足够大，至少会有第2段下跌
10:02 - 10:05
EN: so that we would get at least a second leg down,
ZH: 但是他们看到这么大的阴线，会得出结论， 这个阴线足够大，至少会有第2段下跌
10:05 - 10:07
EN: and they would get out on the close of that bar.
ZH: 所以他们应该在这根阴线的收盘离场 （注：提前离场，没有必要等止损被打到）
10:13 - 10:16
EN: We have a spike and a pullback and then a channel.
ZH: 急速上涨、回调、然后进入通道
10:16 - 10:18
EN: A spike and pullback bull trend.
ZH: 这是急速变通道的上涨趋势
10:18 - 10:20
EN: A lot of traders expect the market to come down
ZH: 很多交易者预期市场会跌回到通道的起点
10:20 - 10:23
EN: to the bottom of the channel, maybe a little bit below.
ZH: 也许会略微跌破一些
10:23 - 10:28
EN: They’ll put a stop several ticks or several pips
ZH: 所以他们会把止损放在这个回调最低点（通道起点） 下方几个ticks的位置
10:26 - 10:30
EN: below the bottom of the pullback, expecting the market to come down there.
ZH: 所以他们会把止损放在这个回调最低点（通道起点） 下方几个ticks的位置 做好了市场跌到这里的准备
10:30 - 10:34
EN: Other traders will assume that spike, pullback, channel will lead
ZH: 其他交易者知道急速、回调、通道最终会变成震荡区间
10:34 - 10:42
EN: to a Trading Range, and a Trading Range can trade down here,
ZH: 震荡区间可以跌到这里，但是之后会再次上涨
10:39 - 10:42
EN: but it will have a rally afterwards.
ZH: 震荡区间可以跌到这里，但是之后会再次上涨
10:42 - 10:46
EN: They’ll instead use a wider stop below the bottom of the bull trend
ZH: 所以他们会使用更宽的初始止损， 放在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
10:46 - 10:48
EN: instead of just below the bottom of the channel,
ZH: 而不是只放在通道的起点下方
10:48 - 10:51
EN: thinking that the market might fall below this low,
ZH: 因为他们认为就算市场跌破了这个低点，
10:51 - 10:58
EN: but as long as it stays above this low, it probably will enter
ZH: 但只要能保持在这个低点之上， 就仍然可能是震荡区间，他们可以在反弹时逢高离场
10:55 - 10:58
EN: a Trading Range and therefore they could exit higher.
ZH: 但只要能保持在这个低点之上， 就仍然可能是震荡区间，他们可以在反弹时逢高离场
10:59 - 11:04
EN: If they’re long from any of these entries and they hold through a pullback here,
ZH: 如果他们之前在某个地方做多了， 然后在下跌的时候一直持有，
11:04 - 11:08
EN: betting on a bounce, they could get out with a smaller loss
ZH: 押注（震荡区间）会有反弹； 那么在这里买入的人就可以少亏一些离场
11:08 - 11:13
EN: if they bought up here, or with a bigger profit if they had bought down here.
ZH: 在低位买入的人则是可以多赚一些离场
Slide 005
Time: 11:15
Bilingual Transcript
11:21 - 11:29
EN: Everyone is naturally very hopeful, very understanding,
ZH: 自然而然地，每个人都会充满希望、善解人意、宽仁大度； 他们认为市场的涨跌也符合这些情感
11:25 - 11:29
EN: and very forgiving, and they assume that the market will behave consistent
ZH: 自然而然地，每个人都会充满希望、善解人意、宽仁大度； 他们认为市场的涨跌也符合这些情感
11:29 - 11:32
EN: with those feelings – but that’s not the way markets work.
ZH: ——然而，市场不是这么运行的
11:40 - 11:46
EN: A beginner often thinks of the market as a person
ZH: 新手经常把市场当作一个人—— 一个没有意识到自己在犯错的人
11:43 - 11:46
EN: who does not realize that he is making a mistake.
ZH: 新手经常把市场当作一个人—— 一个没有意识到自己在犯错的人
11:46 - 11:51
EN: I think it’s natural for a beginner to think of the market as a person.
ZH: 我认为新手把市场当作一个人是很自然的
11:51 - 11:54
EN: In every other aspect of life, you’re interacting with people,
ZH: 生活中的方方面面，你都在与他人互动
11:54 - 11:56
EN: and now you’re interacting with the market.
ZH: 现在，你在和市场互动
11:56 - 12:00
EN: You tend to personalize the market and think of it as a person.
ZH: 你倾向于把市场拟人化，把它当作一个人
12:00 - 12:02
EN: And a beginner, when he sees something like this,
ZH: 一个新手，当他看到这样的情况时，
12:02 - 12:05
EN: thinks the person (the market) is making a mistake,
ZH: 新手会认为这个人（市场）犯错了
12:05 - 12:08
EN: but he does not realize what a terrible mistake he’s making.
ZH: 但他没有意识到，其实是自己正在犯一个很可怕的错误
12:09 - 12:16
EN: People tend to be forgiving, and a beginner has a natural inclination
ZH: 人类往往是宽容的， 所以新手自然会倾向于给市场一个机会，让它纠正自己的错误
12:13 - 12:16
EN: to give the market a chance to fix its mistake,
ZH: 人类往往是宽容的， 所以新手自然会倾向于给市场一个机会，让它纠正自己的错误
12:16 - 12:19
EN: redeem itself and become a good person again.
ZH: 让市场“改过自新”，重新做一个好市场
12:22 - 12:26
EN: Maybe he’ll look at this as a bear trap, a failed bear breakout.
ZH: 他会把这看作是空头陷阱，看作是一次失败的空头突破
12:26 - 12:31
EN: He’ll come up with all kinds of reasons to deny that this is real.
ZH: 为了否认反转下跌的事实，他会想出各种理由——
12:36 - 12:41
EN: It’s still above the bottom of the channel,
ZH: 仍然在通道的起点上方， 仍然在上涨趋势的起涨点上方
12:39 - 12:41
EN: it’s still above the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 仍然在通道的起点上方， 仍然在上涨趋势的起涨点上方
12:41 - 12:46
EN: Maybe a beginner who is not using a stop will give the market more time.
ZH: 这个新手没有挂止损单，他想给市场更多的时间：
12:46 - 12:50
EN: “Maybe the market will see it’s making a mistake and it’ll go back up.”
ZH: “也许市场马上就意识到自己错了，然后重新上涨”
Slide 006
Time: 12:53
Bilingual Transcript
12:53 - 12:56
EN: Now we have a second bar, and it has a bear body.
ZH: 第2根K线出现了，实体部分是小阴线
12:56 - 13:02
EN: That is follow-through, and it increases the chances
ZH: 这是合格的跟随， 增加了空头突破成功、市场继续下跌的可能性
12:59 - 13:02
EN: that this is real and that the market’s going to go lower.
ZH: 这是合格的跟随， 增加了空头突破成功、市场继续下跌的可能性
13:06 - 13:08
EN: Let’s take a look at a beginner who bought right here
ZH: 假设一个新手在这里买入
13:08 - 13:11
EN: and now the market’s down here, with a big bear breakout
ZH: 现在市场在这里，大阴线向下跌破
13:11 - 13:14
EN: well below his entry price, and we have
ZH: 远低于他的入场价
13:14 - 13:17
EN: a follow-through bar as well, another bear body.
ZH: 而且跟随K线也是阴线
13:22 - 13:24
EN: The beginner does not want to exit a trade too early
ZH: 新手不想止损离场，
13:24 - 13:29
EN: because he’ll feel like a loser, and he knows
ZH: 因为他听说成功的交易者每天都在赚钱 所以他觉得止损就等于失败
13:27 - 13:29
EN: that experienced traders are making money all day long.
ZH: 因为他听说成功的交易者每天都在赚钱 所以他觉得止损就等于失败
13:33 - 13:37
EN: The beginner starts thinking about the personality traits of good traders
ZH: 新手开始思考成功交易员的优秀品质有哪些——
13:37 - 13:41
EN: - disciplined, they’re positive, they don’t worry about losses.
ZH: 遵守纪律、乐观积极、不怕亏钱
13:41 - 13:44
EN: The beginner wants to think like a winner.
ZH: 新手想要像胜利者一样思考
13:44 - 13:48
EN: All he’s doing is trying to justify holding onto a losing position,
ZH: 但是，所有这些都只是他不愿意止损的借口
13:48 - 13:50
EN: a position that he really needs to exit.
ZH: 他真正需要做的是立刻离场
13:55 - 13:59
EN: He doesn’t want to look at this as a reversal with follow-through,
ZH: 新手不想承认这是一个有跟随的强势突破
13:59 - 14:05
EN: and he doesn’t want to believe that the market now favors the bears,
ZH: 他不愿意相信市场和概率现在都站在空头那边
14:04 - 14:05
EN: the probability favors the bears.
ZH: 他不愿意相信市场和概率现在都站在空头那边
14:06 - 14:09
EN: He just simply denies what’s in front of him.
ZH: 他只想找借口来否认眼前的事实
14:09 - 14:11
EN: We have a spike, pullback, channel,
ZH: 急速上涨、回调、通道
14:11 - 14:14
EN: we have a huge bear breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 巨大的阴线，还有跟随K线
14:14 - 14:17
EN: The odds are we’re Always In Short, which means the probability
ZH: 很可能已经进入单边下跌，
14:17 - 14:23
EN: is we’re either going to go sideways or down and the first rally,
ZH: 也就是说，（即使有）第1次反弹之后， 要么横盘，要么继续下跌，所以交易者会卖出做空
14:21 - 14:23
EN: traders will sell it and we’ll go down.
ZH: 也就是说，（即使有）第1次反弹之后， 要么横盘，要么继续下跌，所以交易者会卖出做空
14:27 - 14:33
EN: So he bought here, he sees the bear breakout and the follow-through bar well
ZH: 新手在这里买入，他看到大阴线和跟随K线远低于他的入场价
14:33 - 14:40
EN: below his entry price – he’s still hoping that there’s a chance
ZH: 但他仍然抱有希望，认为这可能是一个抬高的低点， 然后上涨趋势恢复
14:36 - 14:40
EN: that this will be a Higher Low and lead to trend resumption up,
ZH: 但他仍然抱有希望，认为这可能是一个抬高的低点， 然后上涨趋势恢复
14:40 - 14:47
EN: even though if he was objective looking at this, he’d say,
ZH: 如果他可以客观地看待这个行情， 他就能知道：不对，一直在下跌，之后最多也就是横盘
14:43 - 14:47
EN: no, we’re going down, or at least we’re going sideways.
ZH: 如果他可以客观地看待这个行情， 他就能知道：不对，一直在下跌，之后最多也就是横盘
14:53 - 14:55
EN: People want to be virtuous.
ZH: 人类都向往高尚的品德
14:55 - 14:57
EN: Again, they want to personify the market.
ZH: 同样，他们想把市场拟人化
14:57 - 15:00
EN: They want to think of the market as a person,
ZH: 他们想把市场看作一个人
15:00 - 15:06
EN: and the beginner wants to allow the market to fix its bad behavior.
ZH: 而新手希望让市场改正它的不良行为
15:07 - 15:11
EN: The beginner wants to be forgiving because being forgiving is virtuous,
ZH: 新手想要宽容，因为宽容是一种美德，
15:11 - 15:13
EN: and he wants to see himself as a good person.
ZH: 他希望自己被看作一个好人
15:13 - 15:21
EN: Again, these are just all the kinds of thoughts and feelings
ZH: 再次强调，这些只是新手不愿意止损的借口和理由
15:17 - 15:21
EN: that beginners have to justify staying in a losing trade.
ZH: 再次强调，这些只是新手不愿意止损的借口和理由
15:21 - 15:23
EN: They’re all wrong.
ZH: 这些都是错误的想法
Slide 007
Time: 15:25
Bilingual Transcript
15:30 - 15:41
EN: At any given instant, there’s always a reason to be long
ZH: 在任何时候，都存在做多和做空的理由， 但有时候，其中一方的成功率非常低
15:33 - 15:41
EN: and there’s always a reason to be short, but sometimes one side
ZH: 在任何时候，都存在做多和做空的理由， 但有时候，其中一方的成功率非常低
15:37 - 15:41
EN: has a terrible probability, a very low probability of success.
ZH: 在任何时候，都存在做多和做空的理由， 但有时候，其中一方的成功率非常低
15:42 - 15:46
EN: The beginner who bought up here and now is sitting with a loss,
ZH: 在这里买入的新手现在正面临亏损
15:46 - 15:52
EN: he wants to pretend that he’s being objective and that he’s analyzing this
ZH: 他想假装自己是客观的， 他模仿专业交易员的样子去分析这个市场
15:50 - 15:52
EN: just the way any professional trader would look at it.
ZH: 他想假装自己是客观的， 他模仿专业交易员的样子去分析这个市场
15:57 - 16:03
EN: He comes up with all kinds of plausible reasons to justify his staying long.
ZH: 他想出了各种看似合理的理由， 作为自己不止损的借口
16:08 - 16:12
EN: There’s follow-through, but it’s only a doji body and it’s still a Higher Low
ZH: 突破之后确实有跟随，但它只是十字星， 而且仍然是更高的低点
16:12 - 16:15
EN: above the bottom of the channel, above the bottom of the spike.
ZH: 高于通道的起点，高于上涨趋势的起点
16:15 - 16:21
EN: Maybe if he holds on, he’ll get a bounce
ZH: 也许再坚持一下，就会有反弹，让它少亏一些离场
16:18 - 16:21
EN: that will allow him to get out with a smaller loss.
ZH: 也许再坚持一下，就会有反弹，让它少亏一些离场
16:21 - 16:23
EN: Maybe it’ll bounce back above his entry price
ZH: 甚至可能会反弹到他的入场价上方，
16:23 - 16:25
EN: and he’ll be able to get out breakeven.
ZH: 这样他就可以打平离场了 （注：事实上，很可能打平之后也不愿意离场，然后又亏回去）
16:32 - 16:35
EN: The beginner is going to come up with every possible thing
ZH: 新手会想尽一切办法来找借口、装鸵鸟，
16:35 - 16:43
EN: that he can conceive of to avoid thinking about the real reason
ZH: 从而避免思考明明在下跌，他却仍然做多、不愿意止损的原因 （注：因为直面错误很难，找借口很简单，所以都倾向于做简单的决定）
16:39 - 16:43
EN: why he’s holding long when the market’s clearly bearish.
ZH: 从而避免思考明明在下跌，他却仍然做多、不愿意止损的原因 （注：因为直面错误很难，找借口很简单，所以都倾向于做简单的决定）
16:43 - 16:46
EN: Why do you think the beginner is holding long?
ZH: 你认为，为什么新手还继续持有？
16:46 - 16:48
EN: He bought here, and now the market has done this.
ZH: 他在这里买入，现在市场已经跌成这个鬼样子了
16:48 - 16:51
EN: Why is he holding long? There’s one reason.
ZH: 他为什么还在持有？原因只有一个——
16:56 - 16:59
EN: He’s afraid to take a loss, because if he takes a loss,
ZH: 他害怕承认亏损。 因为如果他接受了损失，
16:59 - 17:01
EN: he sees himself as a loser.
ZH: 他就觉得自己是一个失败者
17:01 - 17:06
EN: And if he takes enough losses, his account will slowly disappear.
ZH: 他认为，如果他不断地这样亏损， 最终他的账户会慢慢亏完
17:06 - 17:11
EN: He’s afraid of the death of his dream
ZH: 他想成为一个成功的交易员，他害怕自己的梦想破灭
17:08 - 17:11
EN: of becoming a successful professional trader.
ZH: 他想成为一个成功的交易员，他害怕自己的梦想破灭
17:11 - 17:17
EN: That is the fundamental issue, and he’s coming up with all kinds
ZH: 这是不愿意止损的根本原因， 尽管他找了各种借口来避免直面自己的内心，
17:15 - 17:19
EN: of reasons to avoid that thought, but that is his thought.
ZH: 这是不愿意止损的根本原因， 尽管他找了各种借口来避免直面自己的内心， 但这才是他真正的想法
17:19 - 17:22
EN: He’s afraid of death, the death of his dream.
ZH: 他害怕自己的梦想破灭
17:23 - 17:25
EN: He’s got to get over it.
ZH: 交易者必须要克服这一点
17:25 - 17:27
EN: When you trade, you’re going to lose.
ZH: 只要你交易，就一定会有亏损
17:27 - 17:29
EN: You’re going to lose some of the time, and as you get better,
ZH: 你会有一些亏损的交易，但随着你水平的提高，
17:29 - 17:31
EN: you lose less often and your losses become smaller.
ZH: 你亏损的频率会减少，亏损的金额也会变小
17:31 - 17:35
EN: But even experienced traders are going to lose some of the time,
ZH: 即使是经验丰富的交易员，也一定会有亏损的交易
17:35 - 17:37
EN: and you can’t dwell on the losses.
ZH: 所以你不能沉溺在亏损之中
17:37 - 17:42
EN: You have to make the correct management decisions
ZH: 你必须做出正确的管理决策，必须依赖你的止损
17:40 - 17:42
EN: and you have to rely on your stop.
ZH: 你必须做出正确的管理决策，必须依赖你的止损
Slide 008
Time: 17:45
Bilingual Transcript
17:49 - 17:51
EN: The beginner’s still long.
ZH: 那个新手还在坚持
17:51 - 17:55
EN: He sees a bear bar, a doji bar, a bear bar, a bull bar, and he’s arguing,
ZH: 他看到阴线、十字星、阴线、阳线，
17:55 - 18:00
EN: “Oh, consecutive Sell Climaxes with still a Higher Low.
ZH: 所以他又想到了借口：“这是连续的抛售高潮， 而且仍然是抬高的低点，
17:59 - 18:03
EN: Maybe we’ll get a 50% bounce and I can exit
ZH: 所以他又想到了借口：“这是连续的抛售高潮， 而且仍然是抬高的低点， 也许会有一个50%的反弹，让我可以少亏一些离场“
18:01 - 18:06
EN: with a smaller loss.” It’s a mistake.
ZH: 也许会有一个50%的反弹，让我可以少亏一些离场“ 这是错误的，这些都是辩解
18:04 - 18:06
EN: It’s all a justification.
ZH: 这是错误的，这些都是辩解
18:06 - 18:08
EN: He’s just simply denying what’s in front of him,
ZH: 他只是在否认眼前的事实
18:08 - 18:11
EN: hoping that he will not be forced to take a loss.
ZH: 抱着挽回亏损的希望
18:11 - 18:14
EN: Maybe he can lower his stop down here,
ZH: 他觉得也许可以把止损放大到这里——
18:14 - 18:17
EN: the next logical support area, the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 这是下一个“合理的”支撑区域， 因为他是上涨趋势的起涨点
18:17 - 18:19
EN: Spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 急速，回调，通道
18:24 - 18:32
EN: He’s thinking calmly that “Okay, I want to stay objective.
ZH: 他假装冷静地思考：“我要客观， 我要向专业交易员一样思考
18:29 - 18:32
EN: I want to think about this the way the pros would think about it,
ZH: 他假装冷静地思考：“我要客观， 我要向专业交易员一样思考
18:32 - 18:37
EN: and the pros certainly could manage their way out of this trade
ZH: 专业交易员肯定可以通过完美的管理手段，来避免亏损”
18:36 - 18:39
EN: and avoid a loss.” But that’s not true.
ZH: 专业交易员肯定可以通过完美的管理手段，来避免亏损” 但这不是真的
18:39 - 18:40
EN: Pros take losses.
ZH: 专业交易员会果断止损
18:40 - 18:45
EN: When the market is going against them
ZH: 当市场反向移动，当入场的前提不再成立， 我们会立刻止损离场
18:42 - 18:45
EN: and their premise is no longer valid, we take our losses.
ZH: 当市场反向移动，当入场的前提不再成立， 我们会立刻止损离场
18:50 - 18:57
EN: The pros know when they’re wrong, and they just get out
ZH: 专业交易员能意识到自己犯错了， 所以我们会立刻认错、离场，不会纠结
18:53 - 18:57
EN: with a loss when they’re wrong and they don’t worry about it.
ZH: 专业交易员能意识到自己犯错了， 所以我们会立刻认错、离场，不会纠结
18:57 - 19:00
EN: They just accept that nothing is 100% probable.
ZH: 我们知道没有任何事情是100%的
19:00 - 19:03
EN: Even the best things are only 60% probable.
ZH: 即使是最好的情况，也只有60%的概率
19:03 - 19:05
EN: That means you’re going to be wrong 40% of the time.
ZH: 也就是说，40%的时间里你会犯错
19:05 - 19:07
EN: That’s part of the business.
ZH: 这就是交易的一部分
19:07 - 19:09
EN: When you’re wrong, you exit.
ZH: 错了，就离场
Slide 009
Time: 19:15
Bilingual Transcript
19:16 - 19:21
EN: Now we’ve had a breakout to a new low of the day, 4 consecutive bear bars here.
ZH: 然后继续下跌，创了日内的新低
19:21 - 19:23
EN: Consecutive Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 连续的抛售高潮
19:23 - 19:25
EN: It’s probably going to collapse into the end of the day.
ZH: 看上去像是要一直崩盘到收盘为止
19:25 - 19:30
EN: The beginner thinks, “Okay, I’d better just admit that I’m wrong and take my loss.”
ZH: 新手终于崩溃了：“好吧，我承认我错了，我愿意承担亏损”
19:36 - 19:39
EN: He thinks he traded just like a pro, he gave the market room.
ZH: 他认为自己像专业交易员一样交易了， 他给了市场下跌的空间，
19:39 - 19:45
EN: This is just one of those situations
ZH: 最后大亏，只是今天运气不好， 遇到了专业交易员也会亏钱的行情
19:41 - 19:45
EN: that even an experienced trader would lose money,
ZH: 最后大亏，只是今天运气不好， 遇到了专业交易员也会亏钱的行情
19:48 - 19:52
EN: and he finally ends up taking his loss on the breakout to a new low.
ZH: 最终，在市场跌破新低的时候，他止损离场了
19:52 - 19:55
EN: We’re clearly in a strong bear trend.
ZH: 因为显然市场处于强下降趋势
Slide 010
Time: 20:00
Bilingual Transcript
20:01 - 20:04
EN: On the other hand, when I look at this, I’m thinking, hmm.
ZH: 然而，当我看到这样的行情，我想的是：嗯…
20:04 - 20:08
EN: Big bear bar.
ZH: 大阴线，大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
20:05 - 20:08
EN: Probably at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 大阴线，大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
20:08 - 20:09
EN: Another big bear bar.
ZH: 又一根大阴线
20:09 - 20:12
EN: Looks like probably a little bit lower,
ZH: 看起来还会继续下跌一些
20:12 - 20:13
EN: but now we have consecutive Sell Climaxes
ZH: 但现在是连续的抛售高潮
20:13 - 20:19
EN: - here, here, a 2 bar Sell Climax here, another Sell Climax here.
ZH: ——这里，这里，这两根阴线，还有这里也是抛售高潮
20:19 - 20:22
EN: And look at the follow-through – a doji, a bull bar, a bull bar.
ZH: 看它们的跟随——十字星，阳线，阳线
20:22 - 20:26
EN: This looks like a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range,
ZH: 这看起来像是震荡区间中的下跌波段
20:26 - 20:28
EN: so we’ll probably bounce soon.
ZH: 所以很快就可能会反弹
20:28 - 20:33
EN: Also, it’s an Expanding Triangle – low, low, lower.
ZH: 另外，这是一个扩张三角形——低点，更低，更低
20:33 - 20:36
EN: Not a good shape, but still an Expanding Triangle,
ZH: 形状并不标准，但仍然是一个扩张三角形
20:36 - 20:40
EN: and it’s also possibly a breakout below a developing Trading Range.
ZH: 也可能是正在尝试跌破一个潜在的震荡区间，
20:41 - 20:44
EN: Beginner’s looking at this as the end of the world,
ZH: 新手感觉世界末日来了
20:44 - 20:46
EN: and he cannot just stay long anymore.
ZH: 他实在无法继续持有了
20:46 - 20:50
EN: He bought high, the market’s now very low.
ZH: 他在高位买入，现在跌了这么多
20:50 - 20:52
EN: He just lost way too much money.
ZH: 他亏了太多钱
20:52 - 20:56
EN: But that’s not what an objective, experienced trader is going to see.
ZH: 但一个客观的、经验丰富的交易员并不是这样看待市场的 （注：你亏了多少钱，和市场接下来的涨跌，没有任何关系）
20:56 - 21:01
EN: He’s going to see a series of consecutive Sell Climaxes and a new low.
ZH: 专业交易员看到了一系列连续的抛售高潮
21:01 - 21:05
EN: This is probably a bear leg in what’s going to become a Trading Range.
ZH: 而这个下跌波段很可能会转变成震荡区间
21:07 - 21:12
EN: And therefore, traders are expecting 10 bars, two legs up pretty soon,
ZH: 因此，交易者预期很快就会有两段10K的反弹上涨
21:13 - 21:17
EN: and they’re starting to look to buy, and this is what we got.
ZH: 所以他们开始寻找买入做多的机会， 后续的行情是这样
21:18 - 21:22
EN: The beginner exited his long down here on the break to a new low,
ZH: 新手在跌破新低的时候止损离场，
21:22 - 21:26
EN: and the experienced trader is looking at Trading Range price action.
ZH: 而经验丰富的交易员发现这是震荡区间的价格行为
21:26 - 21:30
EN: Spike, pullback, channel, and probably a conversion into a Trading Range.
ZH: 急速下跌、反弹、通道，很可能会转变成震荡区间
21:30 - 21:36
EN: And therefore, once the channel has gone on
ZH: 因此，随着下降通道的发展，几段下跌之后， 大概率会开始上涨
21:33 - 21:36
EN: and has had several legs down, it probably is going to go up.
ZH: 因此，随着下降通道的发展，几段下跌之后， 大概率会开始上涨
21:36 - 21:39
EN: The opposite of this – spike, pullback, channel;
ZH: 同样——急速上涨、回调、通道
21:39 - 21:42
EN: after several pushes up, it’s probably going to go down.
ZH: 在极端上涨之后，大概率会开始下跌
Slide 011
Time: 21:45
Bilingual Transcript
21:47 - 21:52
EN: No one left to sell at this price, and the weak bulls finally gave up.
ZH: 没有人愿意在这么低的位置做空， 弱多头（比如刚才讲的那个新手）放弃在最低点
21:52 - 21:59
EN: The bulls who bought all through here and did not get out
ZH: 那些在这里买入之后，没有及时认错离场的多头， 最终在最低点放弃、止损
21:55 - 21:59
EN: when the market told them they were wrong, they finally give up.
ZH: 那些在这里买入之后，没有及时认错离场的多头， 最终在最低点放弃、止损
22:00 - 22:02
EN: The strong bulls are never going to give up.
ZH: 而强多头永远不会放弃
22:02 - 22:04
EN: They’re going to hold and buy more as the market goes down.
ZH: 他们会坚定持有，并且在下跌时加仓买入更多
22:04 - 22:12
EN: The bears who did sell up here or through here are expecting
ZH: 那些在这里或这里卖出做空的空头， 也预期市场随时会反弹，所以他们正在止盈
22:09 - 22:12
EN: the market to bounce soon as well, and they’re taking profits.
ZH: 那些在这里或这里卖出做空的空头， 也预期市场随时会反弹，所以他们正在止盈
22:12 - 22:16
EN: So the strong bears are taking profits.
ZH: 强空头在止盈，然后等待逢高做空的机会
22:15 - 22:16
EN: They want to sell higher.
ZH: 强空头在止盈，然后等待逢高做空的机会
22:16 - 22:20
EN: No one left to sell at this price, and the result is a rally.
ZH: 剩下的交易者都不愿意在这里卖出，所以导致了反弹
22:25 - 22:29
EN: Strong bears sold here, sold here, take profits,
ZH: 强空头在这里、这里卖出做空，然后止盈
22:29 - 22:32
EN: and do not want to sell again 1 or 2 bars later.
ZH: 短时间内不会再次入场
22:32 - 22:36
EN: They want to sell high, and therefore there’s a buy vacuum.
ZH: 他们想在高位卖出，因此存在买入真空区 （注：这个区域只有买单，没有卖单，所以必须上涨）
22:36 - 22:41
EN: There’s an absence of sellers at this price, and the market gets vacuumed up
ZH: 在这个价格没有卖盘， 价格就被“吸”到了前期反弹的高点——
22:40 - 22:44
EN: to prior pullbacks – this high, maybe even this high.
ZH: 在这个价格没有卖盘， 价格就被“吸”到了前期反弹的高点—— 这个高点，甚至涨到这个高点
22:49 - 22:52
EN: Spike, channel down, consecutive Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 急速下跌、通道，连续的抛售高潮
22:52 - 22:57
EN: Probably we’re going to get 10 bars, two legs sideways to up, maybe more.
ZH: 很可能会有两段10K的反弹，甚至更多
22:57 - 23:02
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom here, a second entry buy here, a bull bar here.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底，这里是第2做多入场点， 信号K线是阳线
23:02 - 23:05
EN: Should get at least to this high, probably to that high.
ZH: 目标至少是这个高点，甚至那个高点
23:05 - 23:09
EN: This is a reasonable buy, so we should get at least to that high.
ZH: （这根阳线的上方）是一个合理的买点， 所以至少会再次测试那个高点
23:09 - 23:13
EN: Bulls will buy for a test of that high, test of this high.
ZH: 多头的目标是去测试这个、和这个高点
23:18 - 23:21
EN: Where you put your stop determines how much money you’re going to risk.
ZH: 止损的位置决定了你的风险是多少金额
Slide 012
Time: 23:20
Bilingual Transcript
23:22 - 23:27
EN: The amount of money that you’re willing to risk always determines
ZH: 你愿意承担的金额决定了仓位的大小
23:25 - 23:27
EN: how big a position you should take.
ZH: 你愿意承担的金额决定了仓位的大小
23:27 - 23:32
EN: You never want to risk more on any trade than you would on any other trade.
ZH: 每一笔交易冒的风险应该都是差不多的
Slide 013
Time: 23:33
Bilingual Transcript
23:39 - 23:45
EN: Whenever you’re looking to enter a trade,
ZH: 在入场交易之前，首先要看止损位在哪里
23:42 - 23:45
EN: you first look where your stop has to be.
ZH: 在入场交易之前，首先要看止损位在哪里
23:46 - 23:47
EN: That determines your risk.
ZH: 因为它决定了你的风险
23:47 - 23:51
EN: That also determines how big a position size you can take.
ZH: 也决定了你应该用多大的仓位
23:51 - 23:55
EN: You can therefore adjust the size of your position based upon
ZH: 因此你就可以根据止损距离调整仓位的大小
23:55 - 24:03
EN: where the appropriate stop would be, and you rely on your stop
ZH: 并且只要入场的前提仍然有效，就可以依赖初始值孙
24:00 - 24:03
EN: as long as your premise is valid.
ZH: 并且只要入场的前提仍然有效，就可以依赖初始值孙
24:03 - 24:08
EN: If the price action tells you that your original premise is wrong, get out.
ZH: 如果价格行为告诉你，你的前提是错误的，那就离场
24:08 - 24:09
EN: Take the loss.
ZH: 接受亏损
24:09 - 24:11
EN: Do not wait for your stop to be hit.
ZH: 没必要等到止损被打掉
24:15 - 24:21
EN: On every trade, the total dollars that you’re risking
ZH: 每一笔交易的风险金额不能超出你的舒适区
24:18 - 24:21
EN: has to be no bigger than your comfort level.
ZH: 每一笔交易的风险金额不能超出你的舒适区
24:27 - 24:30
EN: If you’re thinking too much about the size of how much you can lose on a trade,
ZH: 如果你过于担心这笔交易可能亏损的金额，
24:30 - 24:32
EN: you’re not going to trade properly.
ZH: 你就无法做出正确的决定
24:32 - 24:36
EN: You’re not going to manage the trade properly, and you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 无法正确地管理这笔交易，于是导致亏钱
24:36 - 24:40
EN: You cannot be thinking about money, and therefore you have to trade small.
ZH: 你不能一直想着钱的金额，因此你必须用很小的仓位交易
24:40 - 24:43
EN: You should always trade the “I don’t care” size.
ZH: 永远都用“不在乎”的仓位进行交易
24:43 - 24:47
EN: Trade small enough so you really don’t care very much if you lose.
ZH: 仓位非常小，以至于亏了你也完全不在乎
24:47 - 24:52
EN: That way there, you can manage the trade properly and make objective decisions
ZH: 这样，你才可以正确地管理交易，做出客观的决策，
24:52 - 24:55
EN: and do what those decisions tell you to do.
ZH: 并且把决策落实到执行中
24:58 - 25:03
EN: For example, if you buy here – a bull flag, bull breakout, a Wedge bull flag,
ZH: 例如，如果你在这里买入——这是多头突破之后的楔形牛旗
25:03 - 25:08
EN: High 1, High 2, High 3 – a good place for a stop is either right
ZH: ——高1，高2，高3——止损放在楔形牛旗的下方，
25:08 - 25:14
EN: below the bottom of the Wedge or below the bottom
ZH: 或者放在最近一次多头突破的起涨点下方， 放在这个重要低点下方，是合理的选择
25:11 - 25:14
EN: of the most recent bull breakout, a major Higher Low.
ZH: 或者放在最近一次多头突破的起涨点下方， 放在这个重要低点下方，是合理的选择
25:18 - 25:21
EN: The risk is from your entry price to the stop.
ZH: 从入场点到止损的距离就是你的风险
25:21 - 25:23
EN: That’s your initial risk, at least.
ZH: 至少，这是你的初始风险 （注：实际风险并不一定等于初始风险）
25:24 - 25:26
EN: And let’s assume this is your average risk.
ZH: 假设这是你的平均风险
25:26 - 25:30
EN: Let’s say this is as much as you’re willing to risk on any trade.
ZH: 也就是平时每一笔交易中你愿意承担的最大风险
25:32 - 25:36
EN: If this is your average position size and this is your average risk.
ZH: 假设这是你的平均仓位，这是你的平均风险
Slide 014
Time: 25:35
Bilingual Transcript
25:41 - 25:43
EN: You’re buying in a strong bull trend.
ZH: 你在一个强上涨趋势中买入做多
25:43 - 25:50
EN: The probability is that the market’s going to reward you
ZH: 大概率可以赚到等同于风险的利润
25:46 - 25:50
EN: with a profit that is at least as big as your risk.
ZH: 大概率可以赚到等同于风险的利润
25:50 - 25:59
EN: If you’re buying here and this is a logical stop, 60% chance the market’s
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，这是合理的止损位， 60%的概率市场会先上涨同样的距离， 而不是先打掉你的止损
25:55 - 25:59
EN: going to go up that same distance before it gets to your stop.
ZH: 60%的概率市场会先上涨同样的距离， 而不是先打掉你的止损
26:03 - 26:07
EN: Because the probability is high, you can take a reward
ZH: 因为胜率足够高，所以即使利润只是等于风险，
26:07 - 26:13
EN: that’s equal to one times your risk and still have a good Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 这笔交易的数学期望仍然是好的， 这笔交易数学上是合理的
26:11 - 26:13
EN: The math makes sense.
ZH: 这笔交易的数学期望仍然是好的， 这笔交易数学上是合理的
26:13 - 26:21
EN: We’re buying here, using the appropriate stop, and then taking partial
ZH: 我们在这里买入，使用合理的止损， 然后在一倍风险的距离止盈部分或全部仓位
26:18 - 26:21
EN: or full profits at that same distance up.
ZH: 我们在这里买入，使用合理的止损， 然后在一倍风险的距离止盈部分或全部仓位
26:23 - 26:26
EN: It’s more likely that the market’s going to go that distance up
ZH: 市场更有可能先上涨这么多，而不是先下跌这么多，
26:26 - 26:33
EN: before it goes that distance down, and therefore exiting
ZH: 所以在一倍风险距离的位置止盈离场是合理的做法
26:30 - 26:33
EN: with a reward equal to your risk makes sense.
ZH: 所以在一倍风险距离的位置止盈离场是合理的做法
Slide 015
Time: 26:35
Bilingual Transcript
26:38 - 26:40
EN: Let’s say you’re still long at this point.
ZH: 假设此时你仍然持有多头仓位
26:40 - 26:43
EN: What do you see? You see a spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 你看到了什么？急速上涨、回调、进入通道
26:43 - 26:49
EN: It’s a nested Wedge – spike, pullback, channel, spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 这是一个嵌套式的楔形顶—— 急速，回调，通道；急速，回调，通道
26:49 - 26:53
EN: We have a nested Wedge.
ZH: 嵌套式的楔形，可以找到不同的3推结构
26:51 - 26:53
EN: Different ways to draw the three pushes up.
ZH: 嵌套式的楔形，可以找到不同的3推结构
26:53 - 26:55
EN: You have a series of Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 有一系列抢购高潮
26:55 - 27:00
EN: You have one, two, three, four, five, six.
ZH: 1，2，3，4，5，6
27:01 - 27:08
EN: I have four written here – one, two, three – but it’s really five,
ZH: 这里我标注了4个—— 但实际上是1，2，3，4，5，6，7，8
27:06 - 27:10
EN: six, seven, eight, a lot of consecutive Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 这里我标注了4个—— 但实际上是1，2，3，4，5，6，7，8 很多连续的抢购高潮
27:10 - 27:13
EN: The odds are we’re going to get a pullback pretty soon.
ZH: 所以大概率很快就会开始回调
27:14 - 27:17
EN: The bears theoretically will sell below this bar,
ZH: 空头理论上会在这根K线下方卖出做空，
27:17 - 27:20
EN: betting on at least 10 bars, two legs down.
ZH: 押注至少会有两段10K的回调
27:20 - 27:23
EN: A lot of traders will not take the first sell.
ZH: 很多空头不会在第1入场点开仓
27:23 - 27:28
EN: A lot of bulls, however, will exit on a second reversal down
ZH: 然而，在一个嵌套式的楔形顶之后， 很多多头会在第2次反转下跌时离场
27:27 - 27:28
EN: after a nested Wedge Top.
ZH: 然而，在一个嵌套式的楔形顶之后， 很多多头会在第2次反转下跌时离场
27:29 - 27:32
EN: Many of the bulls will get out here if they did not scalp out earlier.
ZH: 之前没有在通道上沿止盈的多头， 很多都会在这里离场
27:33 - 27:37
EN: Aggressive bears would sell either here or here.
ZH: 而激进的空头会在这里或这里卖出做空
27:37 - 27:44
EN: Other bears would wait until they see the big bear breakout or follow-through
ZH: 其他空头会等看到大阴线跌破、并且有跟随之后， 再开仓做空，押注至少会跌到MM目标位
27:40 - 27:44
EN: and then sell, expecting at least a Measured Move down.
ZH: 其他空头会等看到大阴线跌破、并且有跟随之后， 再开仓做空，押注至少会跌到MM目标位
Slide 016
Time: 27:45
Bilingual Transcript
27:49 - 27:56
EN: Again, some bears will see the big bear breakout,
ZH: 再讲一遍，一些空头看到了大阴线跌破， 并且跟随K线也是阴线， 然后他们会在跟随K线的收盘卖出做空
27:52 - 27:56
EN: see the bear bar on the next bar, and then sell the close,
ZH: 并且跟随K线也是阴线， 然后他们会在跟随K线的收盘卖出做空
27:56 - 27:58
EN: expecting a Measured Move down.
ZH: 预期至少跌到MM目标位
28:00 - 28:06
EN: If you take that short, your stop at a minimum is
ZH: 如果要做空，止损至少放在空头突破的起跌点上方——
28:04 - 28:06
EN: above the top of the bear breakout – the bear reversal,
ZH: 如果要做空，止损至少放在空头突破的起跌点上方——
28:06 - 28:09
EN: the bear Sell Climax, whatever you want to call it
ZH: 空头反转，抛售高潮——无论你怎么叫它；
28:09 - 28:11
EN: - or above the top of the bear trend.
ZH: 或者放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方
28:16 - 28:19
EN: However, look at the size of the risk.
ZH: 然而，看看风险的大小
28:20 - 28:24
EN: I said if this is your average risk for your average position size,
ZH: 之前假设这是你的平均仓位和风险，
28:24 - 28:28
EN: now if you take this sell, the risk is twice your average,
ZH: 现在，假如你在这里做空，风险是平时的两倍 （注：矩形的高度就是风险，现在大约是之前的两倍）
28:28 - 28:33
EN: and that means if you take this sell, you have to reduce your position size
ZH: 也就是说，如果你想在这里做空，你就必须减小仓位，
28:33 - 28:37
EN: because you want the total dollars at risk to be the same.
ZH: 因为风险的总金额应该保持一致
28:37 - 28:44
EN: If your stop is twice as far away, you have to trade a half
ZH: 如果你的止损距离变成了平时的两倍， 那么就必须用一半、甚至更小的仓位去交易
28:41 - 28:44
EN: of your normal position size, maybe even less.
ZH: 如果你的止损距离变成了平时的两倍， 那么就必须用一半、甚至更小的仓位去交易
28:45 - 28:49
EN: This stop location determines the size of the position of your short.
ZH: 止损的距离决定了你仓位的大小
Slide 017
Time: 28:55
Bilingual Transcript
28:55 - 28:58
EN: Strong bear breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 大阴线跌破、有阴线跟随
28:58 - 29:03
EN: 60% probability you’re going to get a Measured Move down
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到MM目标位——把止损距离翻一倍
29:01 - 29:03
EN: based upon the distance to your stop.
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到MM目标位——把止损距离翻一倍
29:04 - 29:12
EN: 60% chance if you sell here, the market is going to go down here,
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，60%的概率市场会先下跌这么多， 而不是先上涨这么多
29:09 - 29:12
EN: this distance, before it goes up here.
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，60%的概率市场会先下跌这么多， 而不是先上涨这么多
29:15 - 29:21
EN: Because it’s a 60% probability of reaching a reward equal to your risk,
ZH: 因为60%的概率你可以赚到等同于风险的利润，
29:21 - 29:27
EN: you can take all of your position off or part
ZH: 所以在一倍风险的位置止盈部分或全部仓位， 是合理的做法
29:23 - 29:27
EN: of your position off at one times your initial risk.
ZH: 所以在一倍风险的位置止盈部分或全部仓位， 是合理的做法
29:29 - 29:30
EN: This is the distance.
ZH: 这是风险
29:30 - 29:32
EN: Here’s the same distance.
ZH: 相等的高度
29:32 - 29:34
EN: Reasonable location to take profits,
ZH: 这是合理的止盈位置
29:34 - 29:37
EN: and you can see a lot of traders did take profits here.
ZH: 你可以看到很多空头在这里止盈
29:42 - 29:47
EN: Again, if you sold here and used the correct stop, your risk is twice normal.
ZH: 再强调一遍：如果你在这里做空，并且使用合理的止损， 你的风险是平时的两倍
29:48 - 29:53
EN: Your position size is half normal, but because your risk is twice normal,
ZH: 所以你的仓位要减半； 由于止损距离是平时的两倍
29:53 - 29:56
EN: you need a profit that is twice normal as well
ZH: 你的利润距离也必须是平时的两倍，
29:56 - 29:58
EN: to make the Trader’s Equation positive.
ZH: 这样数学期望才能为正
30:04 - 30:07
EN: I talked about the reason why traders use stops.
ZH: 这节课我讲了为什么交易者一定要挂好止损单
Slide 018
Time: 30:05
Bilingual Transcript
30:07 - 30:11
EN: Protective stops are to protect you against anything unexpected,
ZH: 保护性止损的目的是保护你免受任何意外的情况，
30:11 - 30:16
EN: and if you’re a beginner, they’re very useful to protect you against yourself.
ZH: 尤其如果你是新手，它们非常有用， 可以保护你免受自己情绪的影响
30:18 - 30:21
EN: The stop’s location determines how much you have at risk,
ZH: 止损的位置决定了风险的大小
30:21 - 30:24
EN: and that determines your position size.
ZH: 风险的大小又决定了仓位的大小
30:24 - 30:28
EN: If the stop is twice as far away as you normally have it,
ZH: 如果止损距离是平时的两倍
30:28 - 30:31
EN: you have to trade a position that is half of your normal size.
ZH: 那么你就必须把仓位减半 （注：使得每一笔交易的金额总风险大致相同）
30:36 - 30:37
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
30:37 - 30:39
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
30:39 - 30:44
EN: This was the first of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 保护性止损的第1节课就先讲到这里