al-brooks-course
45C - Trading Broad Bull Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 45C - Trading Broad Bull Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 23
- Transcript segments: 532
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the third of five videos on trading Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易宽上涨通道的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: Like a channel, you expect reversals to be common,
ZH: 在通道中，你预期经常会有回调（反转的尝试）
00:17 - 00:20
EN: but because it’s a bull trend,
ZH: 但由于它是上涨趋势
00:20 - 00:23
EN: you have to assume that most of the reversals will fail.
ZH: 所以你必须假设大多数反转都会失败
00:24 - 00:28
EN: It’s always better if you can diagnose the Broad Bull Channel early.
ZH: 尽早判断出宽上涨通道，会很有帮助
00:28 - 00:32
EN: That way there, it allows you for an earlier entry on your swing trade.
ZH: 可以让你在波段交易中更早地入场
00:33 - 00:38
EN: Because the selloffs tend to be deep, bears can make money by selling rallies
ZH: 因为回调幅度往往很深，所以空头可以通过逢高做空赚钱
00:38 - 00:41
EN: - for example, reversals down from new highs.
ZH: 例如，创新高之后的反转下跌
00:42 - 00:46
EN: Also, you have to expect that the follow-through
ZH: 此外，必须预见到创新高之后的跟随会很糟糕
00:44 - 00:46
EN: after a new high is going to be bad.
ZH: 此外，必须预见到创新高之后的跟随会很糟糕
00:46 - 00:50
EN: The bears are selling up there and the bulls are selling to take profits.
ZH: 空头逢高卖出做空，多头逢高卖出止盈
Slide 002
Time: 00:52
Bilingual Transcript
00:55 - 00:58
EN: This is a 5-minute chart showing 9 days of the Emini,
ZH: 这是ES期货9天的5分钟K线图
00:58 - 01:02
EN: and the market is trending up – lower left, upper right.
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势——从左下角涨到右上角
01:02 - 01:05
EN: There are lots of pullbacks, and some of them are pretty deep.
ZH: 有很多回调，其中一些非常深
01:05 - 01:07
EN: Therefore, it’s a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 因此这是一个宽上涨通道
01:10 - 01:15
EN: Here the market went sideways for about 2 days, 150 bars in a tight range.
ZH: 这里市场横盘了大约两天，窄震荡区间持续了150根K线
01:15 - 01:18
EN: And that’s common when the market’s in a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中，这种情况很常见
01:18 - 01:22
EN: It usually has extended periods where it’s sideways
ZH: 横盘经常会持续很久
01:22 - 01:25
EN: - for example here, and then again here, and then again here.
ZH: 例如这里，这里，还有这里
01:29 - 01:32
EN: Also, it’s common for the market to have very strong selloffs,
ZH: 此外，往往会有非常剧烈的抛售
01:32 - 01:35
EN: and at times become Always In Short.
ZH: 甚至进入单边下跌
01:35 - 01:40
EN: Strong selloff here, here, protracted selloff here,
ZH: 剧烈的抛售，还有这里，这里下跌了很久
01:40 - 01:42
EN: and then a very strong bear breakout here
ZH: 然后这里有非常强势的空头突破
01:42 - 01:46
EN: below the bottom of the entire 150 bar range.
ZH: 跌破了整个150根K线区间的低点
01:46 - 01:49
EN: The market’s Always In Short during this selloff;
ZH: 在这次抛售期间，市场处于单边下跌
01:49 - 01:52
EN: however, because it’s a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 然而，因为这是一个宽上涨通道
01:52 - 01:56
EN: unless it breaks strongly below all of the lows, including this low,
ZH: 除非它强势跌破所有低点，包括这个低点
01:56 - 01:59
EN: it’s still in a Trading Range as well as a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 否则市场就仍然处于震荡区间，也处于宽上涨通道
02:00 - 02:05
EN: At this point, once it breaks below here, it’s clearly in a Trading Range.
ZH: 此时，一旦跌破这个低点，市场显然进入了震荡区间
02:06 - 02:11
EN: When it breaks below a major Higher Low like that, it’s also in a bear trend.
ZH: 当跌破前期重要低点的时候，市场也可能处于下降趋势
02:11 - 02:14
EN: It may quickly resume back into a bull trend,
ZH: 它可能会很快恢复到上涨趋势
02:14 - 02:17
EN: but at that instant when it broke below all of these lows,
ZH: 但在它跌破所有这些低点的瞬间
02:17 - 02:20
EN: it’s in a bear trend and a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势，或震荡区间
02:20 - 02:22
EN: Once it starts to reverse up strongly,
ZH: 一旦它开始强势地反转上涨
02:22 - 02:25
EN: it’s then back to a bull trend in a Trading Range.
ZH: 就回到了上涨趋势，或震荡区间
02:30 - 02:34
EN: Whether it’s in a Trading Range or a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 无论是震荡区间，还是宽上涨通道
02:34 - 02:38
EN: traders are going to be buying reversals up from near the bottom of the range,
ZH: 交易者都会在区间下沿反转上涨时买入
02:38 - 02:42
EN: especially reversals up from breakouts below prior major lows.
ZH: 尤其是跌破前期重要低点之后的反转上涨
Slide 003
Time: 02:45
Bilingual Transcript
02:49 - 02:51
EN: As I said, selloffs are common.
ZH: 刚才也讲到，回调很常见
02:51 - 02:53
EN: Sometimes they last a lot of bars,
ZH: 有时它们会持续很多K线
02:53 - 02:57
EN: and they can often reverse the market to Always In Short.
ZH: 甚至能让市场进入单边下跌
02:57 - 03:02
EN: For example, here, clearly the market was Always In Short
ZH: 例如，在这里，很明显市场在这根K线期间处于单边下跌的状态
03:00 - 03:02
EN: somewhere in the middle of this bar.
ZH: 例如，在这里，很明显市场在这根K线期间处于单边下跌的状态
03:06 - 03:10
EN: As long as the market’s making a series of major Higher Lows,
ZH: 只要重要的低点还在不断抬高
03:10 - 03:14
EN: the bulls are going to assume that all the reversal attempts will fail,
ZH: 多头就会假设所有反转的尝试都会失败
03:14 - 03:16
EN: even if the market becomes Always In Short.
ZH: 即使市场暂时处于单边下跌之中
03:17 - 03:21
EN: When it’s Always In Short here it’s likely to go lower,
ZH: 比如这里，单边下跌，大概率还会进一步下跌
03:21 - 03:24
EN: but unless it breaks strongly below the bottom of the range,
ZH: 但除非它强势跌破区间的底部
03:24 - 03:28
EN: a reversal up is more likely than a continued trend down.
ZH: 否则更有可能反转上涨，而不是变成下降趋势
03:31 - 03:34
EN: Bulls buy reversals up from all selloffs.
ZH: 回调之后，多头在恢复上涨时买入
03:34 - 03:37
EN: Selloff, reversing up, selloff, they buy the reversal up,
ZH: 回调，恢复上涨；回调，多头买入
03:37 - 03:41
EN: they buy the reversal up, all day long, every day.
ZH: 买入押注上涨趋势恢复，每天都这样做
03:42 - 03:47
EN: They expect the reversals down to fail and for the bull trend to resume.
ZH: 他们预期反转下跌会失败，上涨趋势会继续
Slide 004
Time: 03:50
Bilingual Transcript
03:52 - 03:55
EN: All trends are constantly trying to reverse.
ZH: 所有趋势都在不断尝试反转
03:55 - 03:57
EN: That’s especially true in Broad Channels.
ZH: 尤其是在宽通道中
03:57 - 04:01
EN: Here we have a Broad Bull Channel, and at every high,
ZH: 在这个宽上涨通道里，每次创新高的时候，
04:01 - 04:06
EN: bulls take profits because they think
ZH: 多头都会卖出止盈，以防市场从宽通道变成震荡区间
04:03 - 04:06
EN: it might be a Trading Range instead of a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 多头都会卖出止盈，以防市场从宽通道变成震荡区间
04:06 - 04:12
EN: They want the Broad Bull Channel to continue, but they know that much of the time,
ZH: 他们当然希望宽上涨通道能继续， 但他们知道大多数时候市场处于震荡区间
04:10 - 04:17
EN: the market’s in a Trading Range – for example, here – and therefore they tend
ZH: 他们当然希望宽上涨通道能继续， 但他们知道大多数时候市场处于震荡区间 比如，像这样； 因此他们倾向于在前期高点附近、在创新高的时候卖出止盈
04:14 - 04:17
EN: to take profits at the prior high or above the prior high
ZH: 比如，像这样； 因此他们倾向于在前期高点附近、在创新高的时候卖出止盈
04:17 - 04:19
EN: and then look to buy again lower.
ZH: 然后等待逢低再次买入的机会
04:20 - 04:22
EN: However, it’s a trend.
ZH: 然而，这是一个趋势
04:22 - 04:26
EN: It’s a weak trend – a Broad Bull Channel is a weak bull trend, but it’s a trend,
ZH: 它是弱趋势——宽上涨通道是弱上涨趋势，但仍然是趋势
04:26 - 04:30
EN: and therefore the odds are the tops are going to fail.
ZH: 因此反转下跌的尝试大概率会失败
04:30 - 04:31
EN: Markets have inertia.
ZH: 市场具有惯性
04:31 - 04:34
EN: They tend to continue to do what they’ve been doing,
ZH: 它们倾向于继续做它们一直在做的事
04:34 - 04:35
EN: and if the market’s in a bull trend,
ZH: 如果市场处于上涨趋势
04:35 - 04:38
EN: it’ll tend to continue to be in a bull trend.
ZH: 它倾向于继续保持上涨趋势
04:41 - 04:44
EN: Traders are always seeing tops, and the tops are real.
ZH: 交易者总是在找顶部，确实存在顶部结构
04:44 - 04:48
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear breakout, Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破，高点抬高的大反转
04:48 - 04:53
EN: It failed, and now we have three pushes up – one, two, three – a Wedge Top.
ZH: 反转失败了； 现在有3次上涨——1，2，3——楔形顶
04:53 - 04:55
EN: However, all of the reversals fail
ZH: 然而，所有的反转都失败了
04:55 - 04:58
EN: and the market continues to make major Higher Lows.
ZH: 重要的低点仍然在不断抬高
05:02 - 05:05
EN: Higher High Major Trend Reversal, Wedge Top.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转，楔形顶
05:05 - 05:07
EN: Now we have a big Double Top.
ZH: 现在又有一个的大双顶
05:07 - 05:10
EN: The market broke below the neckline, and what happened?
ZH: 市场跌破了颈线，然后呢？
05:10 - 05:13
EN: The bear breakout failed and the market reversed up.
ZH: 空头突破失败，市场反转上涨
05:15 - 05:17
EN: Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 扩张三角形
05:17 - 05:20
EN: We have a high, a Higher High, and a Higher High
ZH: 高点，高点抬高，高点抬高，
05:20 - 05:24
EN: - yet the Expanding Triangle top failed and we got a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 扩张三角形顶部反转失败，变成双底牛旗
05:28 - 05:29
EN: Lots of Double Tops.
ZH: 能看到很多双顶
05:29 - 05:34
EN: There’s one here, one here, one here, an attempt at one here,
ZH: 这里，这里，这里，这里
05:34 - 05:38
EN: a Double Top Lower High here, a Double Top attempt here.
ZH: 高点降低的双顶，这里也尝试形成双顶
05:38 - 05:39
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 不重要
05:39 - 05:41
EN: We have another one here, another one here.
ZH: 这里还有一个，还有这里
05:41 - 05:43
EN: If you want you can call this one a Wedge.
ZH: 你也可以说它是楔形顶
05:44 - 05:46
EN: Because it’s a bull trend, you have to assume
ZH: 因为市场处于上涨趋势，所以你必须假设
05:46 - 05:50
EN: that all of these tops are going to fail and the bull trend will continue.
ZH: 所有这些顶部反转的尝试都会失败，上涨趋势会继续
05:50 - 05:53
EN: Markets resist change.
ZH: 市场抗拒变化
05:58 - 06:03
EN: And because of that, every time the bears do get a reversal, even if it’s strong,
ZH: 正因如此，每次反转下跌，即使看起来很强势
06:03 - 06:06
EN: bulls expect it to fail and they buy a reversal up
ZH: 多头也预期它会失败，然后买入押注反转上涨
06:06 - 06:10
EN: - or they simply hold long and use a very wide stop.
ZH: 或者一直持有，使用非常宽的止损
Slide 005
Time: 06:15
Bilingual Transcript
06:16 - 06:20
EN: As I said, Broad Bull Channels contain Trading Ranges,
ZH: 之前讲过，宽上涨通道包含震荡区间
06:20 - 06:26
EN: and therefore a lot of the bars in a broad bull trend are also in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以宽上涨通道中的很多K线，同时也处于震荡区间中
06:31 - 06:36
EN: Whenever the market falls below a Higher Low or below a trend line,
ZH: 每当市场跌破前期低点，或者跌破趋势线
06:36 - 06:38
EN: it might begin to enter a Trading Range.
ZH: 可能就开始进入震荡区间了
06:38 - 06:45
EN: The bears are hoping that the break below the trend line will lead
ZH: 空头希望跌破趋势线之后，能形成顶部单反转， 但更有可能只是震荡区间
06:41 - 06:45
EN: to a Major Trend Reversal Top, but more likely a Trading Range.
ZH: 空头希望跌破趋势线之后，能形成顶部单反转， 但更有可能只是震荡区间
06:50 - 06:52
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时
06:52 - 06:57
EN: there are always both buy setups and sell setups, and both are reasonable.
ZH: 总是会同时存在做多和做空机会，两者都是合理的
07:02 - 07:05
EN: The market keeps breaking below trend lines
ZH: 市场不断跌破趋势线
07:05 - 07:08
EN: and you redraw the trend line on the next reversal up.
ZH: 恢复上涨后，可以根据新的低点重新画线
07:08 - 07:12
EN: The trend lines get flatter and the channel gets flatter and broader.
ZH: 趋势线变得更平坦，通道变得更平坦、更宽
07:15 - 07:20
EN: Every time you get a new reversal up,
ZH: 每次反转上涨都会形成新的低点，可以用它来画通道
07:17 - 07:20
EN: you have a new low that you can use to draw a channel.
ZH: 每次反转上涨都会形成新的低点，可以用它来画通道
07:22 - 07:25
EN: And you can see the lines are getting flatter
ZH: 可以看到，这些线变得更平坦
07:25 - 07:27
EN: and the channel is getting flatter and broader.
ZH: 通道变得更平、更宽
07:28 - 07:31
EN: If I had a line drawn across the top of the channel,
ZH: 如果我在通道上沿也画一条线
07:31 - 07:34
EN: the distance between the top of the channel to the bottom of the channel
ZH: 然后测量从通道上沿到下沿的距离 （注：初中数学，平行线之间的距离）
07:34 - 07:39
EN: is getting greater as we continue to draw flatter and flatter trend lines.
ZH: 随着通道越来越平，上下沿之间的距离越来越远
07:43 - 07:45
EN: Initially we had a very Tight Channel,
ZH: 一开始是一个非常窄的通道
07:45 - 07:48
EN: and by this point we have a very Broad Channel.
ZH: 到这个时候，已经变成很宽的通道了
07:48 - 07:51
EN: This was a steep channel and this is a much flatter channel.
ZH: 通道之前很陡峭，现在变得平缓得多
07:51 - 07:59
EN: That’s the natural history of a bull trend, and eventually it evolves
ZH: 这是上涨趋势的自然演变，最终它演变成震荡区间， 然后在某个时候反转进入下降趋势
07:55 - 07:59
EN: into a Trading Range, and then at some point it reverses into a bear trend.
ZH: 这是上涨趋势的自然演变，最终它演变成震荡区间， 然后在某个时候反转进入下降趋势
Slide 006
Time: 08:15
Bilingual Transcript
08:16 - 08:19
EN: Remember, the market’s in a bull trend.
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势
08:19 - 08:22
EN: At some point it transitions into a Trading Range.
ZH: 在某个时候它过渡到震荡区间
08:22 - 08:26
EN: The bulls want trend resumption up; the bears want trend reversal down.
ZH: 多头希望趋势继续上涨；空头希望趋势反转下跌
08:26 - 08:32
EN: But as long as it doesn’t reverse into a bear trend, traders will buy breakouts.
ZH: 只要它没有反转变成下降趋势，交易者就会在下跌时逢低买入
08:32 - 08:35
EN: They’ll buy breakouts below prior lows.
ZH: 他们会在跌破前期低点的时候买入
08:35 - 08:37
EN: Here we broke below a low, they buy the reversal up.
ZH: 这里跌破了一个低点，多头买入，反转上涨
08:37 - 08:40
EN: Broke below this low, buy the reversal up.
ZH: 跌破这个低点，多头买入
08:40 - 08:44
EN: Broke below this low and below that low, they’ll buy the reversal up,
ZH: 跌破这个低点，跌破那个低点，多头买入
08:44 - 08:49
EN: betting that the market will either remain
ZH: 押注市场要么继续震荡，要么恢复上涨
08:46 - 08:49
EN: in a Trading Range or the bull trend will resume.
ZH: 押注市场要么继续震荡，要么恢复上涨
08:54 - 08:56
EN: Very strong bear breakout.
ZH: 非常强势的空头突破
08:56 - 08:59
EN: At some point in here, the market’s Always In Short,
ZH: 在这个时候，市场处于单边下跌
08:59 - 09:01
EN: meaning the market will probably go lower.
ZH: 意味着价格还会跌得更低
09:01 - 09:04
EN: However, once it gets down to the bottom of the Trading Range,
ZH: 然而，一旦它跌到震荡区间的下沿
09:04 - 09:07
EN: the most important major Higher Low to the left,
ZH: 跌到左边最重要的低点
09:07 - 09:10
EN: the bears need the selloff to continue.
ZH: 空头需要继续大量抛售
09:10 - 09:18
EN: And if instead it stalls and reverses up, traders will assume
ZH: 如果止跌并反转上涨，空头就会买入回补， 同时多头买入做多
09:14 - 09:18
EN: that the bears will buy back their shorts and the bulls will buy,
ZH: 如果止跌并反转上涨，空头就会买入回补， 同时多头买入做多
09:18 - 09:24
EN: either for resumption of the Trading Range or a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 押注要么继续震荡，要么恢复上涨
09:28 - 09:32
EN: Trading Ranges often have very strong second legs down.
ZH: 震荡区间里往往有非常强势的第2段下跌
09:32 - 09:36
EN: For example, Leg 1 and then an even stronger Leg 2.
ZH: 例如，第1段，然后更强的第2段
09:36 - 09:39
EN: Leg 1 and then an even stronger Leg 2.
ZH: 第1段，然后更强的第2段
09:39 - 09:41
EN: I call that a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 我称之为第2段陷阱
09:41 - 09:50
EN: It traps traders into thinking that the bears have won
ZH: 它诱使交易者相信空头获胜了， 已经进入下降趋势， 这次跌破会是一个大下降趋势的开始
09:44 - 09:50
EN: and that we’ve begun a bear trend, and that this breakout
ZH: 它诱使交易者相信空头获胜了， 已经进入下降趋势， 这次跌破会是一个大下降趋势的开始
09:47 - 09:50
EN: is going to be the start of a protracted bear trend,
ZH: 它诱使交易者相信空头获胜了， 已经进入下降趋势， 这次跌破会是一个大下降趋势的开始
09:50 - 09:54
EN: but instead it simply traps weak traders into selling near the low.
ZH: 然而，它只是诱使弱空头卖空在最低点 （注：以及弱多头止损在最低点）
09:56 - 09:59
EN: 2nd Leg Traps, common in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 第2段陷阱，在震荡区间中很常见
09:59 - 10:01
EN: Also common in Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中也很常见
10:06 - 10:12
EN: Every bull trend needs a series of Higher Lows, especially major Higher Lows.
ZH: 每个上涨趋势都需要低点不断抬高，尤其是重要的低点
10:12 - 10:19
EN: A major Higher Low is a Higher Low that is relatively strong
ZH: 在重要的低点后面，价格强势向上突破——通常需要创新高
10:15 - 10:19
EN: and breaks to a new high – usually breaks to a new high.
ZH: 在重要的低点后面，价格强势向上突破——通常需要创新高
10:20 - 10:22
EN: As long as it’s forming major Higher Lows,
ZH: 只要重要的低点不断抬高
10:22 - 10:24
EN: it’s in a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场就处于上涨趋势，最差也是震荡区间
10:25 - 10:29
EN: If it breaks below major Higher Lows, then it’s no longer in a bull trend.
ZH: 如果重要的低点被跌破，那就不再是上涨趋势
10:29 - 10:32
EN: It’s then either in a bear trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么处于下降趋势，要么处于震荡区间
10:33 - 10:38
EN: If it reverses up strongly, at some point it goes back to being a bull trend.
ZH: 如果强势地反转上涨，在某个时候它会回到上涨趋势
10:45 - 10:48
EN: As long as any of these reversals stay above this low,
ZH: 只要不跌破整个上涨趋势的起涨点
10:49 - 10:52
EN: the bulls still might be in a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 市场就仍然有可能处于一个宽上涨通道
10:52 - 10:55
EN: In other words, we could have a selloff all the way down here
ZH: 换句话说，有可能一直回调到这里
10:55 - 10:58
EN: and then up to a new high, and another very deep selloff,
ZH: 然后上涨创新高，然后再次深度回调
10:58 - 11:02
EN: another new high, and it still would be in a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 然后再创新高，那样的话仍然是宽上涨通道
11:02 - 11:05
EN: A very broad one, but still a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 非常非常宽，但仍然是上涨通道
Slide 007
Time: 11:10
Bilingual Transcript
11:11 - 11:17
EN: I mentioned that it’s helpful to your bottom line if you can diagnose
ZH: 我刚才说如果能够尽早判断出市场周期， 对于交易是有帮助的
11:15 - 11:17
EN: what is going on as early as possible,
ZH: 我刚才说如果能够尽早判断出市场周期， 对于交易是有帮助的
11:17 - 11:21
EN: and that allows you to trade it appropriately as early as possible.
ZH: 可以让你更早采取合适的交易策略
Slide 008
Time: 11:23
Bilingual Transcript
11:26 - 11:28
EN: Whenever I look at a chart, I’m always wondering,
ZH: 看盘的时候我总是在思考
11:28 - 11:30
EN: where are we in the market cycle?
ZH: 现在处于市场周期的哪个阶段？
11:30 - 11:31
EN: Are we in a breakout?
ZH: 是突破阶段吗？
11:31 - 11:33
EN: Are we in a reversal?
ZH: 趋势有反转吗？
11:33 - 11:34
EN: Are we in a channel?
ZH: 是在通道中吗？
11:34 - 11:35
EN: Are we in a Trading Range?
ZH: 是在震荡区间中吗？
11:35 - 11:38
EN: Sometimes we’re in several things.
ZH: 有时市场同时处于多个阶段
11:41 - 11:46
EN: Market’s going sideways and then we have 3 consecutive bull bars, 2 of them big,
ZH: 市场横盘，然后连续3根阳线，其中两根体积很大
11:46 - 11:49
EN: closing on their highs, breaking above this Lower High.
ZH: 收在最高，突破了这个高点
11:50 - 11:57
EN: The market is clearly Always In Long, and as long as the market stays
ZH: 市场显然在单边上涨，只要价格保持在这个起涨点的上方
11:54 - 11:57
EN: above the bottom of the bull trend here,
ZH: 市场显然在单边上涨，只要价格保持在这个起涨点的上方
11:57 - 12:06
EN: then the odds are any selloff will be either simply a bear leg
ZH: 那么任何下跌大概率都只是震荡区间中的下跌波段， 或者只是牛旗，然后会继续上涨
12:02 - 12:06
EN: in a Trading Range or a bull flag leading to higher prices.
ZH: 那么任何下跌大概率都只是震荡区间中的下跌波段， 或者只是牛旗，然后会继续上涨
12:13 - 12:16
EN: Sometimes Broad Bull Channels become Always In Short.
ZH: 宽上涨通道中也有单边下跌的时候
12:16 - 12:21
EN: Here we have a breakout to a new high, and then we get a series of bear bars.
ZH: 突破创新高之后，出现了一连串阴线
12:21 - 12:24
EN: At this point we have 3 bear bars with decent bodies,
ZH: 在这个时候，已经有3根较大的阴线
12:24 - 12:25
EN: 4 bear bars if you count this one.
ZH: 如果把它也算上，就是4根阴线
12:25 - 12:27
EN: Is the market Always In Short?
ZH: 市场是否处于单边下跌？
12:27 - 12:30
EN: Well, it’s more likely to go a little bit lower,
ZH: 市场确实大概率会再下跌一些
12:30 - 12:33
EN: but not necessarily below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 但不一定会跌破这个起涨点
12:33 - 12:36
EN: So in that sense, it’s Always In Short
ZH: 从这个角度来看，确实可以选择做空
12:36 - 12:38
EN: because we’re probably going a little bit lower.
ZH: 因为大概率还会再下跌一些
12:38 - 12:42
EN: For me, it’s probably big up, big down, which means big confusion,
ZH: 在我看来，这更有可能是大涨、大跌，让人感到困惑
12:42 - 12:47
EN: and the market will probably go sideways for a little while
ZH: 所以在恢复上涨趋势之前，市场大概率需要先横盘一段时间
12:45 - 12:47
EN: before the bulls try to resume up.
ZH: 所以在恢复上涨趋势之前，市场大概率需要先横盘一段时间
12:50 - 12:52
EN: A good bull bar.
ZH: 这根阳线不错
12:52 - 12:54
EN: We have a bear bar, now we have a reversal up.
ZH: 深度回调之后，价格反转上涨
12:54 - 12:56
EN: We have the bull breakout.
ZH: 之前这里多头大量买入制造了突破
12:56 - 13:01
EN: This is testing the bottom of the bull breakout,
ZH: 现在回测了突破的起点，这很常见， 而且低点抬高了
12:58 - 13:01
EN: which is common, and it’s a Higher Low.
ZH: 现在回测了突破的起点，这很常见， 而且低点抬高了
13:02 - 13:06
EN: If the bulls did exit their long after 3 or 4 bear bars,
ZH: 如果多头看到三四根阴线之后卖出离场了
13:06 - 13:09
EN: they’ll look to buy again above a strong bull bar
ZH: 他们会在一根强势的阳线上方再次买入
13:09 - 13:14
EN: - for example, above the high of this bar – just in case the bull trend resumes up.
ZH: 比如在这根K线的高点上方买入，以防自己错过上涨的波段
13:14 - 13:17
EN: They know the down side risk is not that great.
ZH: 他们知道下跌的风险不是很大
13:17 - 13:19
EN: Big up, big down, probably sideways.
ZH: 大幅上涨，大幅下跌，很可能会横盘
13:19 - 13:26
EN: Unless we break below this low, the bulls will assume
ZH: 除非跌破这个低点，否则多头认为， 这最多只是震荡区间中的下跌波段而已
13:22 - 13:26
EN: that the best the bears get is a bear leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 除非跌破这个低点，否则多头认为， 这最多只是震荡区间中的下跌波段而已
13:26 - 13:28
EN: which means it’ll be followed by a bull leg
ZH: 也就是说，之后要么是区间中的上涨波段
13:28 - 13:31
EN: in the Trading Range or by a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 要么上涨趋势恢复
13:31 - 13:34
EN: And therefore bulls are willing to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 因此多头愿意买入，押注反转上涨
13:41 - 13:45
EN: Trading Range with Lower Highs, Higher Lows – it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 震荡区间，高点降低，低点抬高——这是一个三角形
13:45 - 13:49
EN: Broad Bull Channels often spend a lot of time going sideways,
ZH: 宽上涨通道往往会在震荡区间中花费很多时间
13:49 - 13:50
EN: and this is an example.
ZH: 就像这个案例一样
13:50 - 13:55
EN: It’s sideways here for about 40 bars, and now we’re at the apex of a Triangle.
ZH: 这里横盘了大约40根K线，现在来到了三角形的顶点
13:56 - 14:00
EN: But it’s still forming Higher Lows – here, here, and here
ZH: 低点仍然在不断抬高——这里、这里和这里
14:00 - 14:03
EN: - even though it’s not forming Higher Highs
ZH: 尽管高点还没有抬高
14:03 - 14:07
EN: - here, this is not a Higher High, this is not a Higher High, and neither is that.
ZH: ——这里，高点没有抬高，没有抬高，没有抬高
Slide 009
Time: 14:10
Bilingual Transcript
14:15 - 14:20
EN: Another strong breakout, a pause and a small second leg up,
ZH: 再次强势突破，暂停，然后是小的第2段上涨
14:20 - 14:22
EN: and now we have 3 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 现在有连续3根阴线
14:22 - 14:26
EN: Two decent size bodies, this one fairly big closing on its low.
ZH: 其中两根有不错的体积，尤其是这根大阴线收在最低
14:27 - 14:30
EN: Triangles are often final bull flags,
ZH: 三角形往往是末端牛旗
14:30 - 14:35
EN: which means the market often pulls back to the apex of that flag.
ZH: 这意味着市场通常会回测三角形的顶点
14:36 - 14:43
EN: A lot of bulls will get out if they see a breakout, a small second leg up,
ZH: 看到突破，小的第2段上涨，然后连续3根阴线（可能会回测三角形顶点） 很多多头会离场
14:40 - 14:43
EN: and then 3 bear bars breaking out of a Triangle.
ZH: 看到突破，小的第2段上涨，然后连续3根阴线（可能会回测三角形顶点） 很多多头会离场
14:50 - 14:52
EN: Is it Always In Short with these 3 bear bars?
ZH: 这3根阴线是否已经让市场处于单边下跌？
14:52 - 14:57
EN: Probably not, but it’s enough of a pullback after a Buy Climax
ZH: 还没有，但在抢购高潮之后，这样的回调足够强势
14:57 - 14:59
EN: so that the market might go sideways.
ZH: 足以让市场至少横盘一段时间
15:01 - 15:03
EN: How do you know that the market’s in a Broad Bull Channel?
ZH: 你怎么知道市场处于宽上涨通道？
15:04 - 15:09
EN: You usually need at least three legs up, so one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 通常需要至少三段上涨，比如1，回调；2，回调；3
15:09 - 15:11
EN: So at this point it’s in a bull channel,
ZH: 此时你发现市场处于上涨通道
15:11 - 15:14
EN: but usually when you get the three legs up,
ZH: 但通常来说，当你看到三段上涨时，
15:14 - 15:17
EN: it’s also in a Wedge, and that could lead to a reversal.
ZH: 它也是3推楔形顶，可能会导致反转
15:21 - 15:26
EN: Different ways to count it – one, two, three,
ZH: 有3次向上的推动——1，2，3
15:26 - 15:31
EN: or you can view this as a Double Top and then a breakout above a Double Top.
ZH: 或者可以把它看作一个双顶，然后向上突破双顶
15:31 - 15:35
EN: If the market has a Double Top, it has two legs up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 如果有双顶，说明就有两段上涨——1，回调，2
15:35 - 15:38
EN: If it breaks above the Double Top and reverses,
ZH: 如果向上突破双顶，但很快反转下跌
15:38 - 15:42
EN: that is a type of Wedge Top, even though it does not look like a Wedge.
ZH: 这也是楔形反转的一种，尽管它看上去没有楔形的形状
15:42 - 15:44
EN: It functions like a Wedge.
ZH: 但原理是一样的
15:44 - 15:49
EN: So a breakout above a Double Top that fails is the same as a Wedge Top.
ZH: 所以，突破双顶失败，和3推楔形顶，其实是一样的
15:53 - 15:56
EN: Some traders would sell the reversal down.
ZH: 一些交易者会做空押注反转下跌
15:56 - 16:00
EN: We have a breakout, a pause, a smaller bar, and a second leg up.
ZH: 突破，小K线暂停，然后第2段上涨
16:00 - 16:04
EN: We have a potential Final Flag and different ways to draw a Wedge.
ZH: 三角形是潜在的末端牛旗，而且有楔形顶
16:04 - 16:06
EN: Bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 阴线收在最低
16:06 - 16:09
EN: At a minimum, traders would expect a couple legs down,
ZH: 空头预期至少会有两段回调
16:09 - 16:11
EN: maybe a test of the apex of the Triangle.
ZH: 也许会回测三角形的顶点
16:13 - 16:15
EN: It’s okay to sell the reversal down.
ZH: 做空押注反转下跌是合理的
16:15 - 16:18
EN: Not clearly Always In Short yet.
ZH: 此时还不是明显的单边下跌
16:18 - 16:21
EN: Sideways more likely than down – although here, it ultimately went down.
ZH: 横盘的概率更大一些——尽管最终确实下跌了
16:22 - 16:24
EN: Bears will sell below bear bars.
ZH: 空头会在阴线下方卖出
16:24 - 16:25
EN: They’ll sell here.
ZH: 他们会在这里卖出
16:25 - 16:27
EN: We have an ii, small Triangle.
ZH: 有一个ii，小三角形
16:27 - 16:29
EN: They’ll sell the breakout.
ZH: 他们会在向下跌破时卖出
16:29 - 16:32
EN: And they’ll sell above bars as well
ZH: 他们也会在K线上方挂限价卖单
16:32 - 16:36
EN: - above this bar or above the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 在这根K线上方，或者在这根大阴线的上方
16:36 - 16:37
EN: And then another Low 2 short.
ZH: 然后这里是低2做空入场点
16:37 - 16:39
EN: Two legs up, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段反弹——1，回调，2
16:39 - 16:41
EN: Another reason to go short.
ZH: 也是合理的做空入场点
Slide 010
Time: 16:45
Bilingual Transcript
16:47 - 16:53
EN: A lot of times you’ll look at a chart and you’re not sure
ZH: 当你在看盘，很多时候分不清市场到底是宽上涨通道， 还是震荡区间，还是楔形顶
16:49 - 16:53
EN: if it’s a Broad Bull Channel, if it’s a Trading Range, if it’s a Wedge.
ZH: 当你在看盘，很多时候分不清市场到底是宽上涨通道， 还是震荡区间，还是楔形顶
16:54 - 16:56
EN: What you do is you simply trade what is clear,
ZH: 你需要在足够清晰的行情中交易
16:56 - 17:00
EN: and a lot of times you don’t fully get confident about
ZH: 而很多时候，你感觉市场的行为并不确定
17:00 - 17:04
EN: which pattern is dominant until well into the pattern.
ZH: 直到行情已经发展了很久
17:08 - 17:13
EN: We have a Double Bottom and we have a bear breakout
ZH: 这里有一个双底，向下跌破，两次跌破的尝试都失败了
17:11 - 17:13
EN: below the Double Bottom, but it failed twice.
ZH: 这里有一个双底，向下跌破，两次跌破的尝试都失败了
17:13 - 17:20
EN: We bounced here and we bounced again here, and the bull bars here
ZH: 下跌，立刻反弹；再次反弹，这根阳线收在最高， 所以大概率会反转上涨
17:17 - 17:20
EN: are closing near their high, probably going higher.
ZH: 下跌，立刻反弹；再次反弹，这根阳线收在最高， 所以大概率会反转上涨
17:24 - 17:28
EN: We have a good-looking bull bar here and a second buy signal bar here.
ZH: 这里有一根漂亮的阳线，这里是第2根做多信号K
17:28 - 17:31
EN: It’s reasonable to buy on a stop just above the high of that bar.
ZH: 在它的高点上方挂突破买单做多是合理的
17:35 - 17:38
EN: Consecutive bull bars breaking out.
ZH: 连续阳线向上突破
17:38 - 17:41
EN: Strong, closing on their highs, big bodies.
ZH: 强壮，收在最高，体积大
17:41 - 17:42
EN: Traders will buy that close.
ZH: 多头会在它的收盘买入
17:43 - 17:45
EN: High probability of follow-through buying.
ZH: 看到跟随再买入的胜率更高
17:45 - 17:47
EN: The market’s Always In Long.
ZH: 市场正在单边上涨
17:55 - 17:59
EN: For the bears, they see two reversals down – one, pullback, two
ZH: 对空头而言，他们看到了第2次反转下跌的做空入场点
17:59 - 18:03
EN: - and they’ll short this, especially since it’s a type of second leg up.
ZH: 他们会在这里做空，尤其是因为这像是某种第2段陷阱
18:03 - 18:06
EN: We have a pair of strong bull bars, a smaller bull bar,
ZH: 两根大阳线，一根较小的阳线（暂停）
18:06 - 18:08
EN: and then a bigger bull bar again.
ZH: 然后又是一根大阳线
18:08 - 18:09
EN: So it’s a second leg up.
ZH: 所以这是第2段上涨
18:10 - 18:13
EN: This is not a major reversal.
ZH: 这不是一个大反转的机会
18:13 - 18:15
EN: Traders selling here are looking for a scalp.
ZH: 在这里做空的空头是为了剥头皮
18:16 - 18:21
EN: After 5 consecutive bull bars and 4 of the bull bars closing on their highs,
ZH: 在连续5根阳线之后——而且其中4根是大阳线收在最高，
18:21 - 18:23
EN: the reversal is probably minor.
ZH: 大概率只是小反转（注：后续下跌的幅度很大， 但持续时间很短且只有一段下跌，并不能称之为趋势，所以仍然是小反转）
18:23 - 18:30
EN: But given that it’s a Low 2 and we have two small legs up here,
ZH: 但考虑到它是低2，也许会有足够深的回调， 使得做空能够剥头皮赚一些钱
18:27 - 18:30
EN: it might fall far enough for the bears to make a scalp.
ZH: 但考虑到它是低2，也许会有足够深的回调， 使得做空能够剥头皮赚一些钱
18:36 - 18:39
EN: A bear breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 大阴线（突破），并且有阴线跟随
18:39 - 18:42
EN: Some bears will sell the close, expecting at least a little bit more down.
ZH: 一些空头会在跟随阴线的收盘卖出，预期至少还会再下跌一些
Slide 011
Time: 18:45
Bilingual Transcript
18:50 - 18:53
EN: The market’s reversing up from a Higher Low.
ZH: 市场从抬高的低点开始反转上涨
18:53 - 18:55
EN: Therefore, it might be forming a channel.
ZH: 所以可能正在形成通道
18:55 - 18:58
EN: The lines are not parallel, but that does not matter.
ZH: 通道线不是很平行，但这并不关键
18:58 - 19:01
EN: A lot of times you’ll get other highs and lows,
ZH: 很多时候会有其它的高点和低点
19:01 - 19:07
EN: and it takes a lot of bars before it’s clearly a channel
ZH: 需要很多根K线才能形成一个比较平行的通道
19:05 - 19:07
EN: with fairly parallel lines.
ZH: 需要很多根K线才能形成一个比较平行的通道
19:10 - 19:12
EN: Can you buy this bear close?
ZH: 可以在这根阴线的收盘买入吗？
19:12 - 19:14
EN: We got 5 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 有连续5根阴线
19:14 - 19:18
EN: Well, it’s not great to buy the close, but some bulls will buy it.
ZH: 此时最好不要买它的收盘，但一些多头会这么做 （注：虽然没有跌破起涨点，但此时不是明显的强上涨趋势）
19:18 - 19:23
EN: It’s about a 50% pullback – we’re testing the breakout point above this high
ZH: 市场正在回测前期的这个突破点，
19:23 - 19:29
EN: - and they’ll bet that big up,
ZH: 多头押注这是大涨、大跌，更有可能是震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
19:24 - 19:29
EN: big down means Trading Range more likely than bear trend.
ZH: 多头押注这是大涨、大跌，更有可能是震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
19:29 - 19:34
EN: A bull trend that’s as strong as this rarely ever becomes a bear trend,
ZH: 如此强势的上涨趋势很少会直接变成下降趋势
19:34 - 19:38
EN: and therefore this selloff is probably a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以这次抛售大概率只是震荡区间内的下跌波段
19:38 - 19:43
EN: The bulls who do buy would put their stop below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 买入的多头会把止损放在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
19:45 - 19:49
EN: This is the biggest bear bar of the entire selloff.
ZH: 这是整个抛售中最大的阴线
19:49 - 19:55
EN: Given that the odds are we’re not going to fall below the bottom
ZH: 考虑到市场需至少需要横盘一段时间，才会跌破起涨点
19:52 - 19:55
EN: of the bull trend without at least going sideways first,
ZH: 考虑到市场需至少需要横盘一段时间，才会跌破起涨点
19:55 - 20:00
EN: this could be an exhaustive Sell Climax, a bigger bear bar late in a bear trend,
ZH: 这根大阴线可能是竭尽型的抛售高潮—— 回调后期出现体积最大的阴线
20:00 - 20:03
EN: and therefore some bulls will buy the close.
ZH: 因此一些多头会在它的收盘买入
20:07 - 20:10
EN: Higher probability: buy the reversal up,
ZH: 更高胜率的做法：在反转上涨时买入
20:10 - 20:14
EN: especially if you have a pretty good-looking bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 特别是如果有一根漂亮的阳线收在最高
20:14 - 20:15
EN: This is a reasonable Buy The Close bar.
ZH: 在这根K线的收盘买入是合理的
20:15 - 20:18
EN: All of these bars are reasonable Buy The Close bars,
ZH: 所有这些阳线都可以买收盘
20:18 - 20:25
EN: and therefore if there’s a selloff and it does not fall below the bottom
ZH: 因此，如果回调没有跌破上涨趋势的起涨点 很多多头会在强势的阳线上方买入
20:22 - 20:25
EN: of the bull trend, a lot of bulls will buy above a strong bull bar,
ZH: 因此，如果回调没有跌破上涨趋势的起涨点 很多多头会在强势的阳线上方买入
20:25 - 20:27
EN: betting that we’ll get back to that high close.
ZH: 押注价格会回到那个最高的收盘价
20:28 - 20:31
EN: That would allow them to get out breakeven on their first buy
ZH: 让他们的初始仓位可以打平离场
20:31 - 20:33
EN: and then with a profit on their second buy.
ZH: 加仓的部分可以赚钱
20:38 - 20:42
EN: We have a bull breakout above a bear channel, a bear channel in a bull trend.
ZH: 下降通道被向上突破了——处于上涨趋势中的下降通道
20:42 - 20:48
EN: It’s a bull flag, and traders will buy a High 1 pullback from this bull breakout.
ZH: 它是牛旗，在突破之后，交易者会在高1牛旗买入
20:48 - 20:53
EN: Or they’ll buy a Double Bottom bull flag after this breakout.
ZH: 或者在突破之后的双底牛旗买入（注：即高2牛旗）
20:58 - 21:01
EN: Triangle, forming Higher Lows.
ZH: 三角形，低点抬高
21:01 - 21:03
EN: Very strong bull breakout.
ZH: 非常强势的多头突破
21:03 - 21:05
EN: Stronger than the bear reversal.
ZH: 比回调下跌时更加强势
21:05 - 21:08
EN: Traders will assume the market will go higher.
ZH: 交易者认为市场会继续上涨
21:08 - 21:13
EN: We have a bull ioi, a bull bar and an ioi at the apex of a Triangle.
ZH: 这里有一个多头的ioi结构（内-外-内）， 最后一根孕线是阳线，处在三角形的顶点（即将突破）
21:13 - 21:16
EN: Bulls will buy above the high of this bull bar on a stop.
ZH: 多头会在这根阳线的高点上方买入
Slide 012
Time: 21:20
Bilingual Transcript
21:22 - 21:25
EN: Because Broad Channels have deep selloffs,
ZH: 因为宽通道中有深度回调
21:25 - 21:28
EN: bears can make money as well as the bulls.
ZH: 所以空头和多头一样，也可以赚钱
Slide 013
Time: 21:29
Bilingual Transcript
21:37 - 21:41
EN: Some bears will look at this and say, “Well, it’s not all that strong,”
ZH: 一些空头认为这里是震荡区间： “额，多头也没有那么强势”
21:41 - 21:44
EN: and they’ll place limit orders to sell at the high and scale in higher.
ZH: 他们会在前期高点挂限价卖单，并且在更高的位置加仓
21:45 - 21:48
EN: If I see a strong bar like this, I’m not going to sell at that high.
ZH: 如果我看到那么强势的阳线，我不会在那个高点挂限价卖单
21:48 - 21:50
EN: I’ll wait to see what follows.
ZH: 我会等待后续的跟随
21:53 - 21:56
EN: 6 consecutive bear bars closing below their midpoints.
ZH: 连续6根阴线收在一半以下
21:56 - 21:59
EN: Chances are we’re in a Trading Range,
ZH: 很有可能处于震荡区间
21:59 - 22:03
EN: and at this point we have a smaller Triangle within a larger Triangle.
ZH: 这里有一个小三角形，嵌套在更大的三角形里面
22:03 - 22:06
EN: The bull breakout probably will fail to get very far
ZH: 向上突破之后大概率不会涨太多
22:06 - 22:09
EN: before coming back to the apex of the Triangle.
ZH: 很快会回测三角形的顶点
22:09 - 22:12
EN: Some bears will sell either at the top of the Triangle
ZH: 一些空头会在三角形的最高点挂单做空
22:12 - 22:16
EN: or 1 or 2 or 3 points higher up, expecting the market
ZH: 或者把卖单挂在上方1~3个点，
22:16 - 22:19
EN: to come back down to the breakout point.
ZH: 押注市场会跌回到突破点
22:23 - 22:26
EN: Bears always pay attention to breakouts and pullbacks.
ZH: 空头总是关注突破后的回调幅度
22:27 - 22:33
EN: Here we have a very strong bull breakout, but as strong as it was,
ZH: 这里多头的突破非常强势， 但仍然跌回到了突破点的下方
22:30 - 22:33
EN: it came back below the breakout point.
ZH: 这里多头的突破非常强势， 但仍然跌回到了突破点的下方
22:33 - 22:37
EN: What do you think the bears will believe if the market breaks above this high?
ZH: 那么再次创新高的时候，你觉得空头会怎么想？
22:37 - 22:40
EN: They believe that even if it goes up higher,
ZH: 他们认为，就算继续上涨，
22:40 - 22:42
EN: just like after this strong breakout,
ZH: 就像之前这里的强势突破一样，
22:42 - 22:44
EN: there’ll be a pullback below the breakout point.
ZH: 也会回调到突破点的下方
22:45 - 22:48
EN: Bears selling at this high will scale in higher,
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空的空头会在上方加仓
22:48 - 22:51
EN: betting that the market will come back below the breakout point.
ZH: 押注市场会跌回到突破点以下
23:01 - 23:06
EN: Because the market is going sideways so much and having deep pullbacks,
ZH: 因为价格主要是横向移动，而且有深度的回调
23:06 - 23:09
EN: the bulls are less confident that the trend is going to be strong.
ZH: 多头对趋势的强度并没有那么多信心
23:10 - 23:14
EN: They therefore tend to buy pullbacks and not breakouts to new highs.
ZH: 因此他们倾向于在回调时买入，而不是创新高的时候去追涨
23:15 - 23:18
EN: Although here clearly bulls bought, a lot of bulls will not buy that.
ZH: 尽管这里，显然有多头在买入，但很多人不会在这里追涨
23:18 - 23:27
EN: They only want to buy pullbacks, and then they’ll either take profits
ZH: 他们只愿意在回调时买入，然后在创新高的时候止盈， 或者在发现价格涨不动了的时候止盈
23:22 - 23:27
EN: at the new high or they’ll take profits when the market starts to stall.
ZH: 他们只愿意在回调时买入，然后在创新高的时候止盈， 或者在发现价格涨不动了的时候止盈
23:32 - 23:38
EN: The bears know that the bulls will do that, that the bulls will take profits
ZH: 空头知道多头会这样做——在创新高时止盈，并等待回调再买入
23:36 - 23:38
EN: at new highs and prefer to buy pullbacks,
ZH: 空头知道多头会这样做——在创新高时止盈，并等待回调再买入
23:38 - 23:43
EN: and the bears therefore are not worried about too much buying at the prior high,
ZH: 因此空头不担心在前期高点的上方还会有很多买盘
23:43 - 23:46
EN: and they’ll sell at the prior high and sell more higher.
ZH: 他们会在前期的高点挂单做空，并且在逢高加仓
Slide 014
Time: 23:49
Bilingual Transcript
23:54 - 24:00
EN: For example, since there was a very strong breakout here
ZH: 例如，看到尽管有这么强的突破， 但仍然回调到了突破点的下方
23:57 - 24:00
EN: yet the pullback fell below the breakout point,
ZH: 例如，看到尽管有这么强的突破， 但仍然回调到了突破点的下方
24:00 - 24:03
EN: some bears will place a limit order to sell at this high
ZH: 一些空头会在这个高点挂限价卖单做空
24:03 - 24:07
EN: or at this high or that high, expecting
ZH: 或者挂在这个、这个高点，
24:07 - 24:09
EN: that there’ll be a pullback below the breakout point.
ZH: 押注这次也会回调到突破点的下方
24:10 - 24:13
EN: If they sell here and it goes straight down, they make money.
ZH: 如果卖出之后立刻下跌，那么他们就赚钱
24:13 - 24:16
EN: If they sell here and it goes up higher, they’ll sell more higher
ZH: 如果卖出之后，价格继续上涨，他们就会加仓卖出
24:16 - 24:20
EN: and then get out breakeven when the market drops below their entry point.
ZH: 当市场跌回到初始入场点的时候平仓离场
24:20 - 24:22
EN: So they get out breakeven on their first sell
ZH: 于是初始仓位打平，
24:22 - 24:24
EN: and with a profit on their higher sell.
ZH: 上方加仓的部分赚钱
24:28 - 24:33
EN: Scale in higher.
ZH: 关于加仓—— 在讲加仓的单元，我讲解了很多种不同的加仓方法
24:30 - 24:33
EN: I talk about different ways to do that in the videos on scaling in.
ZH: 关于加仓—— 在讲加仓的单元，我讲解了很多种不同的加仓方法
24:33 - 24:38
EN: Some traders do a fixed number of points higher – 2 points, 3 points, 4 points
ZH: 一些空头会在固定的距离——2、3、4个点——用限价卖单加仓
24:38 - 24:41
EN: - and some traders sell with a stop on a reversal down.
ZH: 一些空头会在反转下跌时用突破卖单加仓
24:41 - 24:46
EN: You want your second entry at least the size
ZH: 加仓的位置距离初始入场点，至少要隔开一笔剥头皮交易的大小
24:44 - 24:46
EN: of a minimum scalp above the first entry.
ZH: 加仓的位置距离初始入场点，至少要隔开一笔剥头皮交易的大小
24:46 - 24:50
EN: So a minimum scalp in the Emini is 1 point;
ZH: 比如在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
24:50 - 24:52
EN: you want your second entry at least 1 point higher.
ZH: 所以加仓至少要隔开1个点
24:52 - 24:55
EN: The bars here are big, about 5 points tall.
ZH: 今天的波动比较大，每根K线大约5个点
24:56 - 25:01
EN: Therefore, if you are scaling in, it’s better to be scaling
ZH: 所以如果想要加仓的话，距离最好要隔开超过1个点
24:59 - 25:01
EN: in more than 1 point above your first entry.
ZH: 所以如果想要加仓的话，距离最好要隔开超过1个点
25:01 - 25:05
EN: Better to be scaling in 2, 3, 4, or 5 points above your first entry.
ZH: 最好在上方2、3、4或5个点的位置加仓
25:10 - 25:13
EN: A lot of traders prefer to scale in on a reversal down,
ZH: 很多空头更喜欢在反转下跌时加仓
25:13 - 25:19
EN: as long as that second entry is at least as big as a scalp above the first.
ZH: 只要加仓的位置至少比初始入场点高1个点
25:19 - 25:23
EN: They prefer to be two to three times bigger than the minimum scalp.
ZH: 最好是两三个点（注：剥头皮最小目标的两三倍）
25:27 - 25:31
EN: We dropped a little bit below this high, and that allowed the bears
ZH: 这里略微跌破了前期的突破点
25:31 - 25:33
EN: to get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 使得空头可以让初始仓位打平
25:33 - 25:35
EN: and then with a profit on either of their second entries.
ZH: 然后加仓的部分赚钱
25:39 - 25:48
EN: Some bears will hold part of their position short until either the end
ZH: 一些空头会继续持有一部分头寸，直到收盘， 或者直到出现合理的做多机会
25:44 - 25:48
EN: of the day or until there’s a reasonable buy setup.
ZH: 一些空头会继续持有一部分头寸，直到收盘， 或者直到出现合理的做多机会
25:48 - 25:51
EN: Here, this is not a particularly good buy setup,
ZH: 这里，它不算是一个特别好的做多机会 （注：距离收盘只有几根K线了）
25:51 - 25:53
EN: but we’re getting a lot of tails below bars.
ZH: 但K线底部有很多下影线
25:53 - 25:55
EN: We’re near this prior low.
ZH: 已经跌到了前期低点附近
25:55 - 25:57
EN: We might get profit-taking into the close,
ZH: 在收盘前可能会有空头平仓（导致价格反弹）
25:57 - 26:00
EN: so it’s reasonable to get out on a reversal up.
ZH: 所以在它的上方离场是合理的
Slide 015
Time: 26:05
Bilingual Transcript
26:08 - 26:16
EN: Traders are always trying to decide if there’s a 60% probability of the next bar
ZH: 交易者总是在判断，接下来的几根K线上涨或下跌的概率是否有60% （注：从而决定做多还是做空会更有优势）
26:13 - 26:16
EN: or next few bars going up or going down.
ZH: 交易者总是在判断，接下来的几根K线上涨或下跌的概率是否有60% （注：从而决定做多还是做空会更有优势）
26:23 - 26:25
EN: We have a Wedge Bottom and then a rally.
ZH: 楔形底，然后反转上涨
26:26 - 26:30
EN: A lot of the bulls will buy closes, including even this close,
ZH: 很多多头会买收盘，包括这根阳线的收盘
26:30 - 26:33
EN: betting that the first reversal down will be minor
ZH: 押注即使回调，第1次下跌也只是小反转
26:33 - 26:37
EN: and lead either to a Trading Range or to a bull flag.
ZH: 然后变成震荡区间或牛旗
26:42 - 26:46
EN: We have a big outside up bar and a small Wedge.
ZH: 在小楔形底之后，出现了强势的吞噬阳线
26:46 - 26:49
EN: Reasonable to buy above the high of that bar.
ZH: 在它的上方买入做多是合理的
26:49 - 26:53
EN: Or here we have a second entry buy, also a good-looking buy signal bar.
ZH: 这里是第2做多入场点，也是一个漂亮的阳线
26:53 - 26:54
EN: Reasonable to buy above its high.
ZH: 在它的高点上方买入是合理的
26:55 - 26:59
EN: 60% chance we’ll go at least high enough up for a small profit.
ZH: 60%的概率，至少能够赚一笔剥头皮的利润
27:06 - 27:10
EN: Higher probability: you wait until there are consecutive strong bull bars,
ZH: 胜率更高的做法：等待连续的大阳线
27:10 - 27:16
EN: and traders will either buy at the market right before the close of the bar,
ZH: 然后要么市价买入，要么在阳线收盘时买入
27:14 - 27:16
EN: or they’ll buy at the close of the bar.
ZH: 然后要么市价买入，要么在阳线收盘时买入
27:16 - 27:20
EN: When I talk about “buy the close,” I’m talking about as soon as the market closes,
ZH: 当我提到“买收盘”，意思是在K线收盘的瞬间，
27:20 - 27:24
EN: you hit “Buy the Market” and you get filled at the open of the next bar.
ZH: 你点击“市价买入”，订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
27:24 - 27:28
EN: Or a second or so before the bar closes, you hit “Buy the Market”
ZH: 或者在K线收盘前一两秒，点击“市价买入”
27:28 - 27:31
EN: and you get filled right around the close of this bar.
ZH: 那么订单正好在它收盘时成交
27:33 - 27:37
EN: Traders buying up here have a higher probability of a profit – at a minimum,
ZH: 在这里买入的交易者有更高的胜率能赚钱，至少是MM目标位——
27:37 - 27:44
EN: based upon a Measured Move from the open of the first bar
ZH: 比如从突破第1根K线的开盘价， 到最后一根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍
27:41 - 27:44
EN: to the close of the final bar of the breakout, which would be up here.
ZH: 比如从突破第1根K线的开盘价， 到最后一根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍
27:45 - 27:48
EN: However, whenever you get higher probability,
ZH: 然而，每当你得到了更高的胜率
27:48 - 27:51
EN: usually the stop is further away, so your risk is greater.
ZH: 通常止损就会比较远，所以风险更大
Slide 016
Time: 28:00
Bilingual Transcript
28:01 - 28:04
EN: One of the characteristics of a Broad Bull Channel
ZH: 宽上涨通道的一个特点是
28:04 - 28:08
EN: is that the follow-through is often bad when a market breaks out to a new high,
ZH: 突破创新高之后的跟随往往比较差
28:08 - 28:11
EN: and that’s in part because bulls will take profits
ZH: 其中一个原因是多头在新高卖出止盈——
28:11 - 28:12
EN: - they prefer to buy pullbacks
ZH: 他们更愿意在回调时逢低买入
28:12 - 28:16
EN: and not breakouts to new highs – and bears start to short.
ZH: 而不是在创新高的时候追涨； 同时空头开始做空
Slide 017
Time: 28:17
Bilingual Transcript
28:24 - 28:26
EN: We have a bull breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 大阳线突破，然后跟随
28:27 - 28:31
EN: This is a breakout bar of this bull flag, and this is the follow-through bar.
ZH: 这根大阳线(1)突破了牛旗，这根大阳线(2)是它的跟随
28:31 - 28:34
EN: This is also a breakout bar above this high,
ZH: 同时，大阳线(2)突破了前期高点
28:34 - 28:36
EN: and then this is the follow-through bar.
ZH: 然后这个小阳线是跟随K线
28:42 - 28:44
EN: Terrible follow-through for the bulls.
ZH: 这几根阴线对多头而言是非常糟糕的跟随
28:44 - 28:47
EN: As I said, strong consecutive bull bars,
ZH: 像这么强势的连续阳线，
28:47 - 28:51
EN: probably we’ll get at least a 60% chance of a Measured Move up.
ZH: 至少60%的概率会涨到MM目标位
28:52 - 28:56
EN: But this follow-through is terrible, and it creates big up, big down.
ZH: 但这个跟随非常糟糕，变成了大涨、大跌
28:56 - 29:01
EN: It increases the likelihood that the market will go sideways
ZH: 增加了市场横盘一段时间、而不是直线上涨的可能性
28:59 - 29:01
EN: for a while instead of straight up.
ZH: 增加了市场横盘一段时间、而不是直线上涨的可能性
29:07 - 29:10
EN: A lot of the bulls will take profits on the reversal down.
ZH: 很多多头会在反转下跌时止盈
29:11 - 29:13
EN: Small Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 小的第1段，回调，第2段
29:13 - 29:16
EN: Big Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 大的第1段，回调，第2段
29:16 - 29:18
EN: And you could even argue a Parabolic Wedge
ZH: 甚至可以说这里有一个抛物线楔形
29:18 - 29:23
EN: - one, pullback, two, pause, and three, pause,
ZH: ——1，回调；2，暂停；3，暂停
29:23 - 29:26
EN: and then you get a bear doji bar, a small bear reversal bar.
ZH: 然后出现了一个空头十字星，它是一根小的反转K线
29:26 - 29:29
EN: Some bulls will take partial profits there.
ZH: 一些多头会在这里止盈一部分
29:29 - 29:33
EN: Or once they see 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 或者，一旦看到三四根连续的阴线
29:33 - 29:36
EN: they’ll exit on the close of that third or fourth bear bar.
ZH: 他们就会在第3或第4根阴线收盘时离场
29:40 - 29:44
EN: The bears know the bulls are getting out, and therefore the bears will sell,
ZH: 空头知道多头正在离场，因此他们也会开始做空
29:44 - 29:49
EN: knowing that the bulls just got out
ZH: 因为空头知道，多头刚刚离场，不会在一两根K线之内就再次买入
29:46 - 29:49
EN: and they’ll be less willing to buy a bar or two later.
ZH: 因为空头知道，多头刚刚离场，不会在一两根K线之内就再次买入
29:52 - 29:55
EN: And the bears were able to make a scalp down.
ZH: 做空剥头皮的空头成功赚钱了
30:00 - 30:04
EN: We have 5 consecutive bear bars closing below their midpoints, near their lows.
ZH: 连续5根阴线收盘在一半以下、接近最低点
30:04 - 30:07
EN: The market’s Always In Short for many traders.
ZH: 对许多交易者来说，市场暂时处于单边下跌
30:07 - 30:11
EN: However, it’s still a Higher Low above the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 然而，目前价格仍然高于上涨趋势的起涨点
30:12 - 30:15
EN: This is more likely a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 这个下跌波段更有可能变成震荡区间
30:15 - 30:19
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion usually means sideways.
ZH: 大涨、大跌、造成困惑，通常意味着会横盘一段时间
30:19 - 30:24
EN: Traders do not want to be selling too low
ZH: 因为空头认为它很有可能是震荡区间，所以他们不想在低位卖出做空
30:21 - 30:24
EN: in what they think is going to be a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为空头认为它很有可能是震荡区间，所以他们不想在低位卖出做空
30:31 - 30:35
EN: Again, did not hit the stop below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 再讲一遍，这里没有打到起涨点下方的止损
Slide 018
Time: 30:37
Bilingual Transcript
30:43 - 30:46
EN: It’s a Higher Low, a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 低点太高了，有一根阳线收在最高
30:46 - 30:52
EN: You have Buy The Close bulls from here
ZH: 之前买收盘的多头感到失望，还没有打平离场的机会
30:48 - 30:52
EN: who were disappointed but never had an opportunity to get out.
ZH: 之前买收盘的多头感到失望，还没有打平离场的机会
30:52 - 30:55
EN: Once they were disappointed by this bar or this bar,
ZH: ——他们从这根，或者这根K线开始，对趋势感到失望
30:55 - 30:57
EN: the market never went back to that close.
ZH: 之后市场始终没有回到他们的初始入场价格
30:58 - 31:01
EN: Usually these bulls will buy more above a bull bar,
ZH: 通常这些多头会在阳线上方买入更多
31:01 - 31:05
EN: betting that the market will come back to that close and allow them to get out.
ZH: 押注市场会回到那个最高的收盘价，给他们离场的机会
31:05 - 31:08
EN: If you do something reasonable and you manage it reasonably,
ZH: 如果你的入场、以及后续的管理都是合理的
31:08 - 31:11
EN: usually you can avoid a loss and make a profit.
ZH: 通常你可以赚钱，至少可以避免亏损
31:11 - 31:17
EN: Bulls buying here, disappointed by this, buy more above a bull bar here,
ZH: 多头在这里买入，对它感到失望， 在这根阳线上方加仓
31:17 - 31:22
EN: betting that it will come back up here to let them out breakeven
ZH: 押注市场会涨回到这里，让他们的初始仓位打平， 下方加仓的部分赚钱
31:20 - 31:22
EN: on their first entry and with a profit on their lower entry.
ZH: 押注市场会涨回到这里，让他们的初始仓位打平， 下方加仓的部分赚钱
31:26 - 31:31
EN: The bears know that, and if they did sell this third consecutive bear bar’s close
ZH: 空头知道这一点，所以如果他们真的在第3根阴线的收盘卖出做空了，
31:31 - 31:35
EN: and they did not take profits down here, they will get out above that bull bar.
ZH: 并且没有在这里止盈，那么他们会在这根阳线上方离场
31:40 - 31:42
EN: And bulls buy with a stop.
ZH: 同时多头会用突破买单入场
31:42 - 31:47
EN: Even if a bull did not buy this close and hold long for all of this,
ZH: 不管多头之前没有在它的收盘买入并一直持有
31:47 - 31:51
EN: any bull who bought for any reason here, did not buy at all,
ZH: 不管多头是否在之前的某个地方买入了
31:51 - 31:55
EN: if they’re flat, they know the odds are if you get this bull bar,
ZH: 他们都知道，在这根阳线出现之后
31:55 - 31:58
EN: Buy The Close bulls from up here are going to buy.
ZH: 之前买收盘的多头会在这里加仓
31:58 - 32:05
EN: And other bulls will buy as well, expecting the market
ZH: 所以其他多头也会买入，押注市场会涨回到那个收盘价， 因为在它的收盘买入是合理的
32:01 - 32:05
EN: to get back to that close, because it was reasonable to buy that close.
ZH: 所以其他多头也会买入，押注市场会涨回到那个收盘价， 因为在它的收盘买入是合理的
32:05 - 32:08
EN: And after you were disappointed you never had a chance to get out.
ZH: 在多头感到失望之后，他们还没有获得打平离场的机会
32:09 - 32:11
EN: So this is a good buy for the bulls
ZH: 所以对于多头来说这是一个很好的入场点
32:11 - 32:13
EN: and a good place for bears to buy back their shorts.
ZH: 因此空头也应该在它的上方离场
Slide 019
Time: 32:20
Bilingual Transcript
32:22 - 32:24
EN: Bull breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 多头突破，跟随不好
32:25 - 32:27
EN: Bull breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 多头突破，跟随不好
32:28 - 32:29
EN: Two legs sideways.
ZH: 两段横向的移动
32:29 - 32:31
EN: We have big up, big down, big confusion.
ZH: 之前大涨、大跌，造成困惑
32:31 - 32:33
EN: You expect a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是震荡区间的特征
32:33 - 32:35
EN: Trading Range has a lot of two-legged moves.
ZH: 震荡区间里有很多两段式的移动
32:35 - 32:38
EN: Here we have Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 这里是1，回调，2
32:38 - 32:45
EN: Slightly Lower High, but still a second leg up.
ZH: 高点略微降低； 这个大的第2段上涨可以细分成更小的1，回调，2
32:42 - 32:45
EN: It subdivided into Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 高点略微降低； 这个大的第2段上涨可以细分成更小的1，回调，2
32:45 - 32:51
EN: It even subdivided further into one, pullback, two, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 小的第2段甚至还能细分成1，回调，2
32:56 - 32:57
EN: Potential Double Top.
ZH: 潜在的双顶
32:57 - 33:00
EN: We have two legs up in what is probably a Trading Range.
ZH: 潜在的震荡区间中已经有两段上涨
33:00 - 33:06
EN: Bulls will take profits on a stop on a reversal down below
ZH: 多头会在那根阴线的下方挂突破卖单离场， 同时空头入场做空剥头皮
33:03 - 33:06
EN: that bear bar, and bears will sell for a scalp.
ZH: 多头会在那根阴线的下方挂突破卖单离场， 同时空头入场做空剥头皮
33:12 - 33:15
EN: Very strong bull leg, stronger than the bear leg.
ZH: 这段上涨非常强势，比回调下跌更强
33:15 - 33:18
EN: Most traders will assume the market’s still Always In Long,
ZH: 所以大部分交易者仍然认为做多更好
33:18 - 33:23
EN: and therefore they believe it’s more likely to go higher than to reverse down.
ZH: 他们相信继续上涨的概率要大于反转下跌
Slide 020
Time: 33:25
Bilingual Transcript
33:28 - 33:30
EN: The market went sideways.
ZH: 市场横盘
33:30 - 33:35
EN: Now it’s in a small Triangle within a bigger Triangle after a strong rally.
ZH: 现在处于一个小三角形，嵌套在一个更大的三角形内
33:35 - 33:37
EN: Odds are an attempt at a second leg up.
ZH: 左边的上涨很强势，所以更大的概率会尝试形成第2段上涨
33:43 - 33:48
EN: Low 1 and then Low 2, and the Low 2 subdivided into Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 大的低1，低2； 低2又细分成小的低1，低2
33:49 - 33:52
EN: And it’s a Triangle, but probably Always In Long.
ZH: 这是一个三角形，但仍然做多会更好一些
33:53 - 33:59
EN: This is a small Triangle within a bigger Triangle after a strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势上涨之后，出现了嵌套式三角形的结构
34:03 - 34:06
EN: On a reversal up – Higher Low, Higher Low
ZH: 尝试恢复上涨，低点抬高、抬高
34:06 - 34:09
EN: - traders see it is sideways, forming Higher Lows, Triangle.
ZH: 交易者看到市场横盘，但低点不断抬高，三角形
34:10 - 34:12
EN: The bears will buy back shorts and the bulls will buy again,
ZH: 空头会买入回补，多头再次入场
34:12 - 34:16
EN: especially above a bull bar, and especially if there’s a second entry buy.
ZH: 尤其是在阳线上方，尤其是在第2做多入场点
34:17 - 34:21
EN: Here there’s a first entry buy above this bear bar or above this bull doji,
ZH: 第1入场点是在这根阴线上方，或这个多头十字星的上方
34:21 - 34:25
EN: and then a better looking bull bar here for a second entry buy.
ZH: 这里出现了一根更漂亮的阳线，它的上方是第2入场点
Slide 021
Time: 34:30
Bilingual Transcript
34:31 - 34:33
EN: Strong breakout and again bad follow-through.
ZH: 强势突破，但跟随还是不好
34:36 - 34:40
EN: Wedge, three pushes up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 楔形，3次向上的推动——1，回调；2，回调；3
34:41 - 34:44
EN: We may go higher, but this is possibly a Wedge Top.
ZH: 也许还能上涨一些，但这大概率是一个楔形顶
34:49 - 34:52
EN: A breakout of a Triangle late in a bull trend.
ZH: 趋势后期突破三角形牛旗
34:52 - 34:55
EN: Usually the Triangle becomes the final bull flag.
ZH: 这个三角形往往会变成末端牛旗
34:55 - 34:57
EN: The breakout goes up 3, 4, or 5 bars.
ZH: 向上突破了3、4、5根K线以后
34:57 - 35:01
EN: Usually reverses down back to the apex of the Triangle.
ZH: 通常会反转下跌，回测三角形的顶点
35:05 - 35:09
EN: And there’s a small Triangle here, so BreakOut Mode,
ZH: 这个小三角形很窄，所以是突破模式
35:09 - 35:10
EN: and we’re getting a bear breakout.
ZH: 现在向下跌破
35:15 - 35:19
EN: Bulls will exit long on the breakout below the Triangle
ZH: 多头会在跌破三角形的时候离场，
35:19 - 35:21
EN: or on the close of this strong bear bar,
ZH: 或者在大阴线的收盘离场
35:21 - 35:25
EN: and bears will sell expecting a test down to the apex of the Triangle.
ZH: 空头会做空，押注市场下跌回测三角形的顶点
35:28 - 35:31
EN: If the bears did not take partial profits there,
ZH: 如果空头没有在这里止盈一部分
Slide 022
Time: 35:30
Bilingual Transcript
35:31 - 35:34
EN: they could’ve held for a swing until the end of the day.
ZH: 他们也可以继续持有做波段，直到收盘
35:41 - 35:43
EN: Higher probability?
ZH: 更高胜率的做法是？
35:43 - 35:46
EN: Instead of selling up here – we have a bear breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 不是在这根阴线下跌时卖出——大阴线跌破，并且有好的跟随阴线
35:46 - 35:50
EN: Strong enough selloff, probably we’ll get a second leg down.
ZH: 下跌足够强势，大概率会有第2段下跌
35:50 - 35:54
EN: Maybe a Measured Move based upon the height of this upper Trading Range.
ZH: 也许会跌到上方这个区间的MM目标位
35:54 - 35:58
EN: So, high probability short for at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 所以这是高胜率的做空机会，至少会有小的第2段下跌
36:03 - 36:08
EN: In Broad Bull Channels, it’s a channel because you have a lot of reversals,
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中有很多反转
Slide 023
Time: 36:05
Bilingual Transcript
36:08 - 36:14
EN: but the odds are since the market’s in a bull trend,
ZH: 但毕竟是上涨趋势，所以大概率反转的尝试会失败， 即使看上去是很好的做空机会
36:10 - 36:14
EN: most of the reversal attempts will fail, even if they look pretty good.
ZH: 但毕竟是上涨趋势，所以大概率反转的尝试会失败， 即使看上去是很好的做空机会
36:14 - 36:17
EN: It’s always good to diagnose any pattern early
ZH: 尽早判断出市场周期总归是有帮助的
36:17 - 36:19
EN: because it allows you to enter early.
ZH: 它能让你更早入场
36:19 - 36:22
EN: Often your stop is closer, so your risk is less,
ZH: 这样的话止损更近、风险更小
36:22 - 36:24
EN: and there’s much more profit potential.
ZH: 潜在的利润空间很大
36:25 - 36:30
EN: In a Broad Bear Channel, the bulls sell above prior highs to take profits,
ZH: 在宽上涨通道里，多头在前期高点上方卖出止盈
36:30 - 36:35
EN: and the bears sell above prior highs looking for at least a scalp back down.
ZH: 空头在前期的高点上方卖出做空，押注至少有剥头皮的机会
36:36 - 36:45
EN: Also, because it’s a channel, you have to assume that breakouts to new highs
ZH: 此外，因为它是宽通道，所以必须假设创新高之后的跟随不会太好 ——突破到新高之后很可能会出现一些阴线
36:41 - 36:45
EN: are going to have bad follow-through – bear bars after a breakout to a new high.
ZH: 此外，因为它是宽通道，所以必须假设创新高之后的跟随不会太好 ——突破到新高之后很可能会出现一些阴线
36:45 - 36:51
EN: It’s a sign of bulls taking profits and bears selling for a scalp down.
ZH: 那说明多头卖出止盈，空头入场剥头皮
36:55 - 36:56
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
36:56 - 36:58
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
36:58 - 37:03
EN: This is the third of five videos on trading Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 如何交易宽上涨通道的第3节课，就先讲到这里