al-brooks-course
33F - Protective Stops
Raw transcript and slide notes for 33F - Protective Stops.
Overview
- Slides: 14
- Transcript segments: 434
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the sixth of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 这是保护性止损的第6节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:17
EN: There are many different ways to choose a protective stop.
ZH: 选择保护性止损的方法有很多种
00:17 - 00:22
EN: An important one is one based upon a Measured Move or other support and resistance.
ZH: 其中一个重要的方法是根据MM目标位或其他的支撑和阻力
00:23 - 00:26
EN: Whenever there’s a small signal bar,
ZH: 每当信号K体积比较小的时候
00:26 - 00:29
EN: if you put your stop just beyond that bar, your risk is small.
ZH: 如果你把止损放在它的外面，你的风险就很小 （注：止损距离小）
00:29 - 00:38
EN: However, whenever you have excellent risk/reward – for example,
ZH: 然而，每当你的盈亏比很好——比如风险很小的时候—— 赚钱的概率也很小
00:33 - 00:38
EN: when you have a very small risk – the probability of profit is very small as well.
ZH: 然而，每当你的盈亏比很好——比如风险很小的时候—— 赚钱的概率也很小
00:38 - 00:42
EN: It’s usually better to use at least a slightly bigger stop.
ZH: 通常使用稍大一点的止损会更好
Slide 002
Time: 00:43
Bilingual Transcript
00:48 - 00:51
EN: Different ways to view this as a Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 这里有不同的3推楔形——1，2，3
00:51 - 00:55
EN: or one, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 或者1，2，3；或者1，2，3
00:55 - 00:57
EN: Reasonable to take the sell.
ZH: 卖出做空是合理的
00:57 - 01:00
EN: A lot of reversals, a lot of two-sided trading.
ZH: 之前这里有很多反转，很多双向交易
01:00 - 01:02
EN: It went above this high, they sold.
ZH: 价格突破这个高点，他们卖出
01:02 - 01:04
EN: Went above this high, they sold.
ZH: 突破这个高点，卖出
01:04 - 01:05
EN: Above this high, they sold.
ZH: 突破这个高点，卖出
01:05 - 01:07
EN: Above this high, they sold.
ZH: 突破这个高点，卖出
01:07 - 01:10
EN: Above this high, well, they’ll probably sell
ZH: 现在突破了这个高点，他们很可能会再次卖出
01:10 - 01:13
EN: - especially given that there are multiple ways to draw a Wedge.
ZH: 特别是这里有很多个楔形（注：嵌套式楔形）
01:14 - 01:15
EN: It’s reasonable to take the short,
ZH: 所以做空是合理的
01:15 - 01:19
EN: selling below the low of this bar, and you get filled right here.
ZH: 在这根K线的低点下方挂突破卖单，订单会在这里成交
01:25 - 01:26
EN: A series of Buy Climaxes
ZH: 一系列抢购高潮
01:26 - 01:32
EN: - here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and again here.
ZH: ——这里，这里，这里，这里，这里， 这里，这里，还有这里
01:32 - 01:35
EN: Usually that results in a reversal at some point,
ZH: 这会导致市场在某个点发生反转
01:35 - 01:37
EN: and now that we have a nested Wedge,
ZH: 而现在出现了嵌套式楔形
01:37 - 01:41
EN: this is a reasonable location to bet that the market will begin to reverse.
ZH: 所以在这是一个合理的位置，来押注市场即将反转下跌
01:48 - 01:49
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势的突破
01:49 - 01:51
EN: Probably we’ll get at least a second leg up.
ZH: 大概率至少会有小的第2段上涨
01:51 - 01:54
EN: Well, this qualifies as the second leg up.
ZH: 而这里，已经符合了第2段上涨的要求
02:00 - 02:03
EN: Whenever I see a Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 每当我看到一个楔形——1，2，3
02:03 - 02:06
EN: - I want to see the pullbacks drop below the breakout point.
ZH: ——我预期看到回调，跌破突破点
02:07 - 02:08
EN: I want to see a stairs pattern.
ZH: 我想看到阶梯式上涨 （注：上涨之后有较深的回调，补掉缺口）
02:08 - 02:10
EN: I do not want to see gaps staying open.
ZH: 我不想看到缺口保持开放
02:11 - 02:15
EN: If I see gaps staying open, the market’s probably going to continue higher.
ZH: 如果缺口保持开放，就说明市场还会继续上涨
02:15 - 02:20
EN: But if the pullbacks drop below the breakout point, that’s a stairs pattern.
ZH: 但如果回调跌破突破点，那就变成了阶梯模式
02:20 - 02:26
EN: That means that the bull trend will probably soon be replaced either
ZH: 而阶梯模式意味着上涨趋势很快就会被震荡区间或下降趋势所取代
02:24 - 02:26
EN: by a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 而阶梯模式意味着上涨趋势很快就会被震荡区间或下降趋势所取代
02:31 - 02:36
EN: If you take the sell below this bar, you could put a stop just above its high
ZH: 如果你在这根K线下方卖出做空， 你可以把止损放在它的高点上方
02:37 - 02:42
EN: - or you could argue that the market went this high above this breakout point.
ZH: ——或者你可以认为，之前突破的高度是什么多
02:42 - 02:44
EN: Here’s that same distance.
ZH: 这是相同的高度
02:44 - 02:48
EN: It probably will not go further if it breaks out above this high,
ZH: 如果市场突破这个高点，大概率不会走得更远
02:48 - 02:57
EN: and therefore you look at how high this is above that, you create a box here,
ZH: 因此你可以测量这一段的高度，把这段高度平移到右边这里， 然后把止损放在它的上方
02:54 - 02:57
EN: you make the same box here, and you put a stop just above that.
ZH: 因此你可以测量这一段的高度，把这段高度平移到右边这里， 然后把止损放在它的上方
02:57 - 03:01
EN: A Measured Move based upon the height of the last stair,
ZH: 这是基于上一个阶梯的MM目标位
03:01 - 03:05
EN: betting that this stair will be no bigger than that stair,
ZH: 押注这个阶梯不会高于前一个阶梯
03:05 - 03:07
EN: and that the bull trend will weaken over time.
ZH: 押注上涨趋势将随着时间的推移而减弱
Slide 003
Time: 03:10
Bilingual Transcript
03:15 - 03:16
EN: Strong rally.
ZH: 强势上涨
03:17 - 03:19
EN: We tried to reverse, tried to reverse a second time,
ZH: 空头尝试反转，第2次尝试反转
03:19 - 03:23
EN: tried to reverse a third and fourth time, and the reversals are failing.
ZH: 第3、第4次尝试反转，但都失败了
03:23 - 03:26
EN: Bulls will look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 多头会买入做多
03:26 - 03:30
EN: It’s a Wedge bull flag, plus we have a gap here and this low.
ZH: 这是一个楔形牛旗，并且它和这个低点之间存在缺口
03:30 - 03:32
EN: Possibly a Measured Move up.
ZH: 很可能会涨到MM目标位
03:32 - 03:34
EN: Traders will buy above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 多头会在前1根K线的高点上方买入
03:34 - 03:36
EN: We have a breakout and pullback.
ZH: 突破，回调
03:36 - 03:39
EN: This would be another buy above the high of that bar.
ZH: 在这根K线的上方也是一个买入机会
03:39 - 03:41
EN: You get in right there.
ZH: 你的入场点就在这里
03:43 - 03:46
EN: If you want, you can draw it this way, as a Triangle
ZH: 你也可以这样画一个三角形
03:46 - 03:51
EN: - three pushes down, one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 3次向下推动——1，反弹；2，反弹；3
03:52 - 03:53
EN: Triangle bull flag.
ZH: 三角形牛旗
03:59 - 04:00
EN: We have a big breakout.
ZH: 左边是大幅的突破
04:00 - 04:02
EN: We’re trying to reverse up repeatedly.
ZH: 然后不断尝试继续上涨
04:02 - 04:05
EN: This is a potential Measuring Gap
ZH: 这是一个潜在的测量型缺口
04:05 - 04:08
EN: - the gap between this low and that high, the breakout point.
ZH: ——这个低点和那个高点，即突破点，之间有缺口
04:16 - 04:25
EN: If the premise that this is a bull trend is valid, the market at this point,
ZH: 如果这个上涨趋势的前提是成立的， 那么一旦你在这里或这里入场之后， 缺口就不应该被填补
04:21 - 04:25
EN: once you enter here or here, it should not close this gap
ZH: 那么一旦你在这里或这里入场之后， 缺口就不应该被填补
04:25 - 04:28
EN: until after it gets up to this high.
ZH: 而是至少会先涨到这个高点
04:28 - 04:32
EN: Therefore, it’s reasonable if you buy above this bar, get filled here,
ZH: 因此，如果你在这根K线上方买入，在这里成交；
04:32 - 04:36
EN: above this bar, get filled here, to put your stop below the bottom of the gap.
ZH: 或者在这根K线上方买入，在这里成交； 把止损放在缺口的下方是合理的
04:37 - 04:41
EN: Here’s the bottom of the gap and a stop just a little bit below.
ZH: 这是缺口的底部，止损就放在下面一点点
Slide 004
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:52 - 04:56
EN: Whenever there’s a strong bull trend, bulls like to buy a 50% pullback.
ZH: 每当看到强势的上涨趋势，多头就喜欢在50%回调买入
04:56 - 05:01
EN: This is a strong bull trend,
ZH: 这是一个相当强的上涨趋势
04:59 - 05:01
EN: reasonably strong bull trend,
ZH: 这是一个相当强的上涨趋势
05:03 - 05:05
EN: and this is a 50% pullback.
ZH: 50%回调在这里
05:05 - 05:08
EN: Some traders know bulls will buy here.
ZH: 交易者知道多头会在这里买入
05:08 - 05:13
EN: If it falls much below there, bulls will conclude it’s not a strong bull trend.
ZH: 如果50%这条线被大幅跌破，多头会认为这不再是一个强上涨趋势
05:13 - 05:15
EN: It’s either a Trading Range, maybe even a bear trend.
ZH: 要么是震荡区间，甚至可能变成下降趋势
05:18 - 05:20
EN: A strong breakout here.
ZH: 这里也是强势的突破
05:20 - 05:22
EN: Here’s the 50% pullback.
ZH: 50%回调在这里
05:29 - 05:33
EN: Let’s say you bought at the absolute worst price, right here.
ZH: 假设你很不幸，正好买在最高点，在这里
05:34 - 05:36
EN: The bull trend is strong.
ZH: 上涨趋势很强
05:36 - 05:41
EN: Probably the worst the bears will get is a Trading Range instead of a bear trend
ZH: 在这么强势的上涨之后，空头能得到的最好的情况，
05:41 - 05:44
EN: after such a strong rally, and the same is true here.
ZH: 可能也就是震荡区间，而不是下降趋势； 这里也是一样
05:44 - 05:49
EN: The reversal probably will be minor, either a bull flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 大概率只是小反转，要么是牛旗，要么是震荡区间
05:49 - 05:51
EN: In this case, it did reverse into a Trading Range.
ZH: 在这个案例中，反转确实发展成了震荡区间
05:51 - 05:56
EN: A Trading Range means that if it does fall even below 50%,
ZH: 而震荡区间意味着，即使跌破50%
05:56 - 06:00
EN: it probably will not fall below the low before it gets back up to the high.
ZH: 也大概率会先涨回到前期高点，而不是先跌破这个低点
06:04 - 06:08
EN: Because of that, some traders will put their stop just below a 50% pullback.
ZH: 因此，一些交易者会将止损放在50%回调的下方
06:08 - 06:11
EN: Here’s the rally, here’s a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这段上涨的50%回调在这里
06:11 - 06:16
EN: Some traders will put their stop just below the low of the 50% pullback.
ZH: 一些交易者会把止损放在50%回调的下方
06:18 - 06:21
EN: Here, a 50% pullback.
ZH: 它的50%回调在这里
06:21 - 06:23
EN: The bottom of the trend, the top of the trend.
ZH: 从起涨点到最高点
06:23 - 06:25
EN: Even if you bought at this high tick,
ZH: 即使你不幸买在最高点
06:25 - 06:28
EN: you could reasonably put your stop below a 50% pullback.
ZH: 你也可以合理地把止损放在50%回调的下方
06:28 - 06:31
EN: Better to put it down below the bottom of the bull leg,
ZH: 最好是放在上涨波段的起涨点下方
06:31 - 06:35
EN: but if you put it at the 50% pullback and you get stopped out here,
ZH: 但如果你放在50%回调，然后止损被打到、离场，
06:35 - 06:41
EN: you can always buy on a reversal back up – either above here,
ZH: 你总是可以在反转上涨时再次买入—— 在这个收在最高的阳线上方买入，
06:39 - 06:41
EN: above this bull bar closing on its high,
ZH: 你总是可以在反转上涨时再次买入—— 在这个收在最高的阳线上方买入，
06:41 - 06:44
EN: or above this bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 或者在这个收在最高的阳线上方买入
06:50 - 06:56
EN: If you get stopped out and the market again
ZH: 如果被止损之后，市场又反转上涨，你可以再次买入
06:53 - 06:56
EN: reverses in your direction, you can buy again.
ZH: 如果被止损之后，市场又反转上涨，你可以再次买入
Slide 005
Time: 07:00
Bilingual Transcript
07:07 - 07:12
EN: You can call this a Triple Bottom, a Head and Shoulders Bottom
ZH: 你可以把它看作三重底，或者头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
07:10 - 07:12
EN: - left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 你可以把它看作三重底，或者头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
07:12 - 07:16
EN: You can call it a Wedge, even though this did not fall below that.
ZH: 也可以说它是楔形，尽管3没有跌破2
07:16 - 07:21
EN: In any case, the bears three times tried to get a swing down and they failed,
ZH: 无论如何，空头3次尝试形成下跌波段，都失败了
07:21 - 07:26
EN: and the market’s reversing up, and it has a decent buy signal bar here.
ZH: 然后市场反转上涨，并且这里有一个不错的做多信号K线
07:26 - 07:30
EN: It’s reasonable to buy above this bar, and you get filled on this bar.
ZH: 在这根K线上方买入是合理的，突破买单会在这根K线成交
07:39 - 07:43
EN: If you’re lucky and we break above the top of the Double Top,
ZH: 如果运气好的话，价格突破双顶，
07:43 - 07:46
EN: the market will probably rally to a Measured Move up
ZH: 大概率会涨到MM目标位
07:46 - 07:49
EN: - which it turns out is at the top of this bear leg.
ZH: ——正好也是前期的这个高点附近
07:53 - 07:57
EN: If you buy, you might want to use a wider stop, thinking that, well,
ZH: 买入之后，你也可以设置一个更宽的初始止损
07:57 - 07:59
EN: if you bought here, it fell below that low;
ZH: 假如之前你在这里买入，它跌破了那个低点；
07:59 - 08:02
EN: if you buy here, it fell below this low.
ZH: 假如之前在这里买入，这个低点也被跌破了
08:02 - 08:06
EN: Maybe if you buy here, maybe it’ll get another small leg or two down.
ZH: 所以在这里买入之后，完全有可能再下跌一些 （注：把止损放的太小很可能会被打掉）
08:06 - 08:13
EN: But it should not fall for a Measured Move down
ZH: 你做多的前提是市场不久之后就会上涨， 如果成立的话，市场就不应该跌到下方的MM目标位
08:09 - 08:13
EN: if your premise of a rally coming soon is valid.
ZH: 你做多的前提是市场不久之后就会上涨， 如果成立的话，市场就不应该跌到下方的MM目标位
08:14 - 08:18
EN: If it does fall below this low, then probably the market’s
ZH: 如果跌破了这个价格，那么说明市场处于持续的下降趋势
08:17 - 08:22
EN: in a continued bear trend and your thought that it’s going to reverse is wrong.
ZH: 如果跌破了这个价格，那么说明市场处于持续的下降趋势 而你认为即将反转的前提就是错误的
08:22 - 08:29
EN: And therefore, it’s reasonable to put a stop down here because if it falls below
ZH: 因此，将止损放在这里是合理的， 因为如果跌破这里，说明你的看法是错误的
08:26 - 08:29
EN: that Measured Move target, your belief is wrong,
ZH: 因为如果跌破这里，说明你的看法是错误的
08:29 - 08:32
EN: and you should be no longer holding a long trade.
ZH: 所以你就不应该继续持有多头仓位
08:35 - 08:41
EN: Some traders will use an extreme stop – the height of the bear leg,
ZH: 一些交易者会使用极端的止损—— 把整个下跌波段的高度往下翻
08:41 - 08:47
EN: and put a stop down here, looking to scale in lower
ZH: 并把止损放在这里，计划逢低加仓—— 如果跌到这里，并开始反转上涨的时候买入更多
08:44 - 08:47
EN: if it does fall down here and starts to reverse up.
ZH: 并把止损放在这里，计划逢低加仓—— 如果跌到这里，并开始反转上涨的时候买入更多
08:48 - 08:51
EN: Is that a bad thing to do?
ZH: 这么做很糟糕吗？ （注：风险很大，容易大亏）
08:51 - 08:51
EN: No.
ZH: 并不是
08:51 - 08:55
EN: Most of the bulls who do use a wide stop, like this or like this,
ZH: 大多数使用宽止损的多头，比如放在这里或这里，
08:55 - 08:58
EN: are never going to let the stop be hit.
ZH: 永远不会让止损真的被打到
08:59 - 09:02
EN: If there’s a strong bear breakout with good follow-through,
ZH: 如果有大阴线强势跌破，并且有良好的跟随
09:02 - 09:07
EN: they’ll get out on the close of the follow-through bar, well above their stop.
ZH: 他们会在跟随K线的收盘离场，远高于止损的价格
09:07 - 09:09
EN: This stop is a catastrophic stop.
ZH: 这个保护性止损是为了防止意外
09:10 - 09:14
EN: If you lose power, if an emergency happens and you have to leave,
ZH: 如果断电了，如果发生紧急情况你必须离开
09:14 - 09:17
EN: if there’s a problem with your broker, a problem with your software,
ZH: 如果券商或交易软件出了问题，或任何意外发生，
09:17 - 09:22
EN: anything, the wide stop will contain your losses
ZH: 这个止损可以限制你的损失
09:22 - 09:26
EN: but give you time to have the trade go in your direction.
ZH: 同时给你更多的时间（和空间），让交易朝着你的方向发展
Slide 006
Time: 09:30
Bilingual Transcript
09:32 - 09:34
EN: Here’s a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 左边是5分钟K线图
09:34 - 09:38
EN: and here’s the 60-minute version of this entire 5-minute chart.
ZH: 右边是它的60分钟图
09:38 - 09:44
EN: These bars are exactly these bars, the 60-minute chart, the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 它们是同样的K线，只不过一个是60分钟，一个是5分钟
09:47 - 09:50
EN: We have a Wedge Top – one, two, three.
ZH: 这里有一个楔形顶——1，2，3
09:50 - 09:54
EN: Also you can call it a bigger Wedge – one, two, three – a decent sell signal bar.
ZH: 同时也有一个更大的楔形顶——1，2，3； 并且有不错的做空信号K线
09:54 - 09:59
EN: Reasonable to take that short, betting on the Double Top and a Trading Range.
ZH: 做空是合理的，押注它是震荡区间中的双顶
10:01 - 10:04
EN: Again, different ways to draw the Wedge Top.
ZH: 这里存在不同的3推楔形
10:04 - 10:06
EN: Different computers see it differently.
ZH: 不同的计算机有不同的算法
10:07 - 10:08
EN: Another way to draw it.
ZH: 这是大的楔形顶
10:08 - 10:12
EN: But reasonable to sell here, reasonable to sell there.
ZH: 在这里卖出是合理的，在那里卖出也是合理的
10:17 - 10:22
EN: Some traders who take this short are not confident that it’s the final top,
ZH: 一些空头并无法确定它到底是不是最高点
10:22 - 10:27
EN: but they are confident that if it’s not, the market will top out pretty soon.
ZH: 但他们知道，即使这不是最高点，反转也很快就会到来
10:27 - 10:30
EN: They sold above this bar and they made money.
ZH: 之前在这个高点上方做空的空头赚钱了
10:30 - 10:32
EN: They sold above here, it went down.
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空，市场下跌
10:32 - 10:33
EN: Above here, it went down.
ZH: 在这里上方卖出，市场下跌
10:33 - 10:36
EN: Above here, it probably will go down again.
ZH: 在它的上方卖出，市场很可能会再次下跌
10:36 - 10:40
EN: And a lot of the bears who took this sell want to allow for the possibility
ZH: 很多做空的交易者在卖出时会考虑到：
10:40 - 10:44
EN: that it might go above the high but immediately reverse down.
ZH: 市场可能突破这个高点，但很快就会再次反转下跌的可能性
10:44 - 10:47
EN: They’ll use a Measured Move, for example, for their stop.
ZH: 所以他们会使用宽止损，比如放在MM目标位的上方
10:47 - 10:52
EN: We have a Double Bottom bull flag, a neckline – here’s the Measured Move up,
ZH: 双底牛旗，颈线——MM目标位在这里
10:52 - 10:54
EN: so they might put a stop just a little bit above that.
ZH: 所以他们会把止损放在它的上方一点点
10:54 - 10:59
EN: Again, they’re never going to let that stop be hit,
ZH: 再次强调，他们几乎不会让那个止损真的被打到
10:56 - 10:59
EN: or they’ll rarely ever let it be hit.
ZH: 再次强调，他们几乎不会让那个止损真的被打到
10:59 - 11:03
EN: However, if it does hit that stop, they know their premise is wrong
ZH: 然而，如果止损真的被打掉， 他们就知道这笔交易的前提已经不再成立
11:03 - 11:05
EN: and they should be out, and they should take the loss.
ZH: 所以他们应该接受损失并离场
11:05 - 11:10
EN: They’re using the wide stop because they’re confident that the premise is right.
ZH: 正因为他们对自己的判断很自信，所以才愿意用宽止损
11:10 - 11:13
EN: If they do sell here and it goes above the high of this bar,
ZH: 假设他们在这里做空，然后价格向上突破了这个高点
11:13 - 11:15
EN: they’re confident that there’ll be sellers there
ZH: 他们很有信心，知道上方会有很多卖盘，
11:15 - 11:18
EN: and the market will eventually go down,
ZH: 会让价格最终再次反转下跌
11:18 - 11:22
EN: and they don’t want to sell here and get stopped out and then miss the trade.
ZH: 他们不用太小的止损，导致错过这笔交易
11:25 - 11:28
EN: This red box is exactly this red box.
ZH: 这两个红色框框对应的是相同的位置，
11:29 - 11:34
EN: If you were looking at the 60-minute chart when you took this short,
ZH: 在60分钟图上，这里就是你开仓做空的地方
11:32 - 11:34
EN: you would be shorting right here.
ZH: 在60分钟图上，这里就是你开仓做空的地方
Slide 007
Time: 11:39
Bilingual Transcript
11:42 - 11:45
EN: You can think of a wide stop, like here,
ZH: 5分钟上的宽止损，比如放在这里，
11:45 - 11:49
EN: as an ordinary stop on the 60-minute chart.
ZH: 在60分钟的图上，其实就是一个常规的止损距离
11:54 - 11:58
EN: On the 60-minute chart, if you were to sell below the low of this bear bar
ZH: 如果你根据60分钟的图交易，在这根阴线下方挂突破卖单
11:58 - 12:02
EN: - reversal down, three pushes up – you’d be filled right here.
ZH: ——3推楔形顶，反转下跌—— 订单会在这里成交
12:04 - 12:07
EN: And that would be here on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 对应5分钟图上的这个位置
12:07 - 12:13
EN: This price on the 60-minute chart, if you took that short
ZH: （再讲一遍）如果你根据60分钟图， 在这根反转阴线的下方卖出做空
12:10 - 12:13
EN: on the 60-minute chart below this bear reversal
ZH: （再讲一遍）如果你根据60分钟图， 在这根反转阴线的下方卖出做空
12:13 - 12:17
EN: and then you looked at the 5-minute chart, this is where you’d be filled.
ZH: 对应到5分钟图，这里就是你开仓的位置
12:20 - 12:26
EN: If you took that short, you would put your stop
ZH: 如果在这里做空，你的止损就在起跌点上方， 也就是这个高点上方
12:22 - 12:26
EN: above the top of the bear trend, just above this high.
ZH: 如果在这里做空，你的止损就在起跌点上方， 也就是这个高点上方
12:28 - 12:33
EN: Had you looked at the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 如果看5分钟图，止损就在这段下跌的起点上方
12:30 - 12:33
EN: your stop would’ve been here, at the top of this selloff.
ZH: 如果看5分钟图，止损就在这段下跌的起点上方
12:33 - 12:35
EN: And that’s reasonable.
ZH: 这是合理的
12:35 - 12:36
EN: It’s a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这是一个窄下降通道
12:36 - 12:39
EN: Probably the first reversal up, bears will sell it.
ZH: 如果出现第1次反弹，空头会卖出
12:39 - 12:41
EN: Bulls will sell it as well.
ZH: 多头也会卖出
12:41 - 12:44
EN: The bulls who buy will be buying only for a scalp.
ZH: 那些买入的多头只是做一笔剥头皮交易
12:44 - 12:49
EN: The bulls who were long will use any rally to get out with a smaller loss.
ZH: 之前买入被套牢的多头，会在反弹时卖出，减少亏损
12:49 - 12:54
EN: Therefore, the stop should not be hit on the first reversal up.
ZH: 因此，第1次反弹的时候，不应该打到这个止损 （注：也就是说，如果打掉止损，说明这个前提错误，应该离场）
13:00 - 13:04
EN: I think it’s important to realize that if you have a small signal bar
ZH: 我认为重要的是要意识到，如果信号K线很小
13:04 - 13:08
EN: and you put a stop just beyond it, your risk is small
ZH: 然后你把止损放在它的外面，那么你的风险就很小
13:08 - 13:12
EN: - but whenever you have small risk, you’re probably going to lose money.
ZH: ——但风险很小的时候，你更有可能会亏钱
13:12 - 13:14
EN: You have a small probability of success,
ZH: 成功的概率很低
13:14 - 13:20
EN: and therefore a very tight stop is rarely ever a good thing to use.
ZH: 所以止损太窄不是一个好的选择
Slide 008
Time: 13:22
Bilingual Transcript
13:26 - 13:30
EN: Here we have a bull trend and we have another breakout to a new high.
ZH: 上涨趋势，再次突破创新高
13:30 - 13:32
EN: This is a reasonable High 1 buy.
ZH: 这是一个合理的高1买点
13:37 - 13:43
EN: However, let’s say the signal bar is only 3 pips tall or 3 ticks tall.
ZH: 假设这个信号K的高度只有3 ticks（或pips）
13:43 - 13:48
EN: If you put your stop just below it, then you’re risking about 5 pips or 5 ticks.
ZH: 如果你把止损放在它的下面， 那么风险大约是5 ticks（或pips）
13:48 - 13:53
EN: You buy 1 tick above, 1 pip above; your stop is 1 tick or 1 pip below.
ZH: 你在上方1个tick（或pip）买入； 止损放在下方1个tick（或pip）
13:53 - 14:00
EN: Your risk is 5 ticks or 5 pips, and that’s small,
ZH: 相对于前期这么大的波段而言， 你的风险非常小，只有5 ticks（或pips）
13:56 - 14:00
EN: especially compared to the size of the leg before it.
ZH: 相对于前期这么大的波段而言， 你的风险非常小，只有5 ticks（或pips）
14:07 - 14:13
EN: Whenever you have a very small stop, that means you have excellent risk/reward.
ZH: 如果你的风险很小，就代表你的盈亏比非常好
14:13 - 14:16
EN: Small risk, big reward.
ZH: 小风险，大回报
14:16 - 14:18
EN: It also means that you have low probability.
ZH: 也意味着成功的概率很低
14:18 - 14:23
EN: If you have a low probability of success, you have a high probability of losing money.
ZH: 也就是说止损大概率会被打掉，导致你亏钱
14:24 - 14:30
EN: It’s rarely ever a good idea to put your stop
ZH: 把止损放在非常小的信号K线下方从来都不是一个好的选择
14:27 - 14:30
EN: below the bottom of a very small signal bar.
ZH: 把止损放在非常小的信号K线下方从来都不是一个好的选择
14:30 - 14:33
EN: Instead, it’s better to look to the left,
ZH: 相反，应该看左边的趋势
14:33 - 14:35
EN: look for the most recent strong rally,
ZH: 找到最近一个强势的上涨波段
14:36 - 14:39
EN: and put your stop below the bottom of that most recent strong rally.
ZH: 然后把止损放在它的起涨点下方
14:39 - 14:45
EN: If it’s a bull trend, it should not fall here
ZH: 如果上涨趋势还成立，就不应该先下跌打掉止损， 而是应该先至少有足够剥头皮的涨幅
14:42 - 14:45
EN: before going up far enough to make a profit.
ZH: 如果上涨趋势还成立，就不应该先下跌打掉止损， 而是应该先至少有足够剥头皮的涨幅
14:47 - 14:50
EN: There are many different alternatives for a wider stop.
ZH: 宽止损有很多不同的选择
14:51 - 15:00
EN: The point is, if you have a very small signal bar, do not use the low of the bar
ZH: 关键是，如果信号K线很小，就不要把止损放在它的下方
14:56 - 15:00
EN: for your stop because the risk is too small.
ZH: 关键是，如果信号K线很小，就不要把止损放在它的下方
15:00 - 15:04
EN: That automatically tells you that the probability of making money is low.
ZH: 因为风险太小，代表赚钱的胜率也很低
15:04 - 15:06
EN: In other words, you’ll probably lose money.
ZH: 换句话说，你大概率会亏钱
15:11 - 15:13
EN: Some traders will use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 一些交易者会设置正确的止损
15:13 - 15:17
EN: They’ll buy here, trade small, and then when you get a second entry,
ZH: 他们用小仓位在这里买入，然后出现第2次入场的机会时
15:17 - 15:19
EN: they’ll buy more here or above this bull bar.
ZH: 他们会在这根K线的上方买入更多
15:21 - 15:26
EN: Using that wide stop allows them to buy more if they want to buy more.
ZH: 宽止损让他们可以在合适的地方加仓买入更多
15:26 - 15:30
EN: It also allows the market to go a little bit further against them.
ZH: 宽止损给了市场更多的回调空间
15:30 - 15:35
EN: They can hold onto the position, and then the trade ultimately is profitable.
ZH: 让交易者可以继续持仓，最终盈利
Slide 009
Time: 15:40
Bilingual Transcript
15:42 - 15:44
EN: We have a Trading Range and a breakout.
ZH: 震荡区间，向上突破
15:44 - 15:46
EN: Possibly a failed breakout.
ZH: 可能是一次失败的突破
15:46 - 15:52
EN: Some traders will sell the reversal down below that bar, that inside bar.
ZH: 一些交易者会在那根孕线的下方卖出做空
15:52 - 15:56
EN: They’ll sell on a stop below its low and they’ll get filled right here.
ZH: 他们在它的下方挂突破卖单，订单在这里成交
15:59 - 16:02
EN: Let’s say the bar is 3 pips tall.
ZH: 假设这根K线的高度是3 pips
16:02 - 16:07
EN: Then if you sell 1 pip below, your stop is 1 pip above.
ZH: 你在它下方1个pip开仓，止损放在上方1个pip
16:07 - 16:09
EN: Your risk is 5 pips.
ZH: 所以你的风险是5 pips（3+1+1）
16:09 - 16:10
EN: Very small.
ZH: 风险很小
16:16 - 16:19
EN: Why will you probably lose money?
ZH: 为什么这么做大概率会亏钱？
16:19 - 16:23
EN: If your risk is small, your risk/reward ratio is excellent,
ZH: 如果风险很小，那么盈亏比就非常好
16:23 - 16:28
EN: and whenever you have an excellent risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 每当你的盈亏比很好时，赚钱的概率就会变低
16:26 - 16:28
EN: you have low probability of making money.
ZH: 每当你的盈亏比很好时，赚钱的概率就会变低
16:28 - 16:32
EN: That means that most of the time, you’ll get stopped out and you’ll lose money.
ZH: 也就是说，大部分时候你的止损会被打掉，然后亏钱
16:32 - 16:36
EN: Whenever you have a very small sell signal bar like this,
ZH: 当你看到这么小的做空信号K线
16:36 - 16:39
EN: it’s a mistake to put your stop just above the high of the bar.
ZH: 把止损放在它的上方是一个错误的决定
16:39 - 16:43
EN: You need a wider stop to improve your probability.
ZH: 你需要用一个更宽的止损来提高胜率
16:50 - 16:53
EN: You could use a money stop, like 10 or 20 pips above,
ZH: 你可以用固定金额止损，比如10或20个pips
16:53 - 16:56
EN: or you could use a stop based upon a Measured Move.
ZH: 或者你可以根据MM目标位来设置止损
16:57 - 17:02
EN: The key is to trade small, and you can always add on if the market goes your way.
ZH: 关键是要用小仓位，如果市场确实下跌，你随时都可以加仓
17:04 - 17:07
EN: The market went above the high of the sell signal bar
ZH: 市场突破了做空信号K线的高点
17:07 - 17:09
EN: and then it started to reverse down again
ZH: 但很快就开始反转下跌
17:09 - 17:12
EN: - maybe a Wedge Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: ——3推楔形顶，也是高点抬高的大反转
17:12 - 17:17
EN: Some bears who sold here used the wide stop, did not get stopped out.
ZH: 一些在这里做空的空头使用了宽止损，没有被打到
17:17 - 17:20
EN: Might sell more here, betting on a second entry short.
ZH: 可能会在这里加仓卖出更多，这里是第2做空入场点
17:20 - 17:22
EN: Failed breakout above a Trading Range.
ZH: 向上突破区间失败
17:22 - 17:26
EN: That is a higher probability short than is this.
ZH: 这里做空的胜率比之前这里更高
17:27 - 17:30
EN: Second entry trades are usually higher probability.
ZH: 第2入场点通常有更高的胜率
17:35 - 17:37
EN: Strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势的突破上涨
17:37 - 17:39
EN: It’s a High 1 bull flag.
ZH: 这里是高1牛旗
17:40 - 17:42
EN: It’s a small buy signal bar.
ZH: 这是一个小的做多信号K线
17:42 - 17:45
EN: Probably better not to put a stop just below its low,
ZH: 最好不要把止损放在它的低点下方
17:45 - 17:47
EN: although it would not get hit here.
ZH: 尽管这里它确实没有被打到
17:47 - 17:52
EN: Instead, put your stop below the bottom of the most recent strong bull breakout.
ZH: 最好把止损放在最近一次强势突破的起涨点下方
17:52 - 17:55
EN: A wider stop means higher probability of success.
ZH: 宽止损意味着胜率更高
17:55 - 17:57
EN: A wider stop is greater risk.
ZH: 也意味着风险更大
17:57 - 17:59
EN: Greater risk means worse risk/reward.
ZH: 风险大，所以盈亏比不好
17:59 - 18:03
EN: Bad risk/reward means higher probability of success.
ZH: 通过牺牲盈亏比，来换取更高的胜率
18:03 - 18:06
EN: Too small a stop, the risk is too small.
ZH: 如果止损很小，风险很小
18:06 - 18:08
EN: The probability of winning is too small.
ZH: 那么赚钱的概率也很小
18:14 - 18:15
EN: This is a daily chart.
ZH: 这个是日K线
Slide 010
Time: 18:15
Bilingual Transcript
18:16 - 18:20
EN: If you don’t want to trade small positions on the daily chart,
ZH: 如果你不想在日K线上用很小的仓位交易
18:20 - 18:24
EN: one alternative is to use options to express your opinion.
ZH: 可以选择用期权作为替代
18:29 - 18:33
EN: Let’s say you look at the chart at this point and you say,
ZH: 假设你在这里发现：“哇！非常不错的空头突破
18:31 - 18:33
EN: wow, that’s a pretty good bear breakout.
ZH: 假设你在这里发现：“哇！非常不错的空头突破
18:33 - 18:36
EN: Very Tight Channel, probably going lower.
ZH: 下降通道很窄，很可能会继续下跌
18:36 - 18:41
EN: And you look at the chart and say, “Wow, this is a daily chart.
ZH: 但这是日K线，止损在这里——15天之前的这个高点， 风险太大了。”
18:39 - 18:41
EN: My stop is up here, 15 days higher.
ZH: 但这是日K线，止损在这里——15天之前的这个高点， 风险太大了。”
18:41 - 18:51
EN: That’s just too much to risk.” Instead of selling here
ZH: 如果不想承担这么远的止损， 你可以选择买入看跌期权，或者用看跌期权的价差策略（put spread）
18:46 - 18:51
EN: and putting your stop up there, an alternative is to buy puts or buy a put spread.
ZH: 如果不想承担这么远的止损， 你可以选择买入看跌期权，或者用看跌期权的价差策略（put spread）
18:59 - 19:05
EN: If this were a stock, traders would call that a stock replacement strategy.
ZH: 如果它是股票，这就是用期权替代股票的策略
19:05 - 19:10
EN: For example, let’s say you short the stock,
ZH: 例如，假设你卖空这只股票，现在你的止损变得非常远
19:07 - 19:10
EN: and now your stop is very far away, and you want to stay short.
ZH: 例如，假设你卖空这只股票，现在你的止损变得非常远
19:10 - 19:14
EN: You believe the market’s going lower, but you do not want that much risk.
ZH: 你相信市场还会继续下跌，想继续做空， 但你不想承担这么大的风险
19:14 - 19:18
EN: An alternative is to buy back your short so that you’re flat
ZH: 替代的方法是，回补空头仓位 （注：即止盈平仓卖空的股票）
19:18 - 19:26
EN: and then go ahead and replace your short position
ZH: 然后买入看跌期权或价差策略，效果和卖空股票是接近的 （注：通常会选择深度价内的长期期权，类似LEAPS call / put）
19:22 - 19:26
EN: with either long puts or a put spread.
ZH: 然后买入看跌期权或价差策略，效果和卖空股票是接近的 （注：通常会选择深度价内的长期期权，类似LEAPS call / put）
19:24 - 19:26
EN: So you buy puts or you buy a put spread.
ZH: 然后买入看跌期权或价差策略，效果和卖空股票是接近的 （注：通常会选择深度价内的长期期权，类似LEAPS call / put）
19:26 - 19:34
EN: Your risk is contained and smaller, and you’re still able to hold on
ZH: 这样，你的风险就得到了控制，变得更小； 并且让你能够在下跌波段中继续持有
19:31 - 19:34
EN: for a swing down if the swing down continues.
ZH: 这样，你的风险就得到了控制，变得更小； 并且让你能够在下跌波段中继续持有
19:34 - 19:39
EN: What about something more complicated, some other complicated options strategy?
ZH: 还有很多更复杂的期权策略，可以做吗？
19:40 - 19:41
EN: Not worth it.
ZH: 没必要（注：期权有无数组合，并且可以随时动态地调整， 但对于普通交易者而言，没有必要把事情做复杂）
19:41 - 19:49
EN: 90% of the time, trading simply a call or a put or a call spread
ZH: 90%的时间里，只做单腿的看涨、看跌期权， 或者做双腿的价差组合，就足够好了
19:46 - 19:49
EN: or a put spread is a very good choice.
ZH: 90%的时间里，只做单腿的看涨、看跌期权， 或者做双腿的价差组合，就足够好了
19:54 - 19:56
EN: We’ve got a pretty good bull trend here,
ZH: 这是一个相当不错的上涨趋势
Slide 011
Time: 19:55
Bilingual Transcript
20:00 - 20:02
EN: and therefore you can buy for any reason.
ZH: 因此你可以根据任何原因买入
20:02 - 20:04
EN: You could buy below a bar, betting the reversal will fail.
ZH: 你可以在K线下方买入，押注反转会失败
20:04 - 20:06
EN: You can buy above a bar, a High 2 buy.
ZH: 你可以在K线上方买入，这里是高2买点
20:06 - 20:10
EN: We got a breakout of a High 2 bull flag, a pullback, a breakout of the pullback,
ZH: 高2牛旗，向上突破，然后回调，再次上涨的时候买入
20:10 - 20:13
EN: and then here another breakout of a small bull flag.
ZH: 突破左边的小牛旗，也可以买入
20:13 - 20:16
EN: It doesn’t matter why you buy.
ZH: 不管怎么买都可以
20:18 - 20:22
EN: Here, we have a pullback that did not fall below this high.
ZH: 这里的回调，并没有跌破前期的突破点 （注：测量型缺口）
20:22 - 20:25
EN: We have the potential for a Measured Move up,
ZH: 所以很可能会涨到MM目标位——
20:25 - 20:30
EN: from down here or here to this gap up here.
ZH: 从起涨点，到缺口，把这段高度往上翻一倍
20:37 - 20:40
EN: If you’re trading, if you’re buying for any reason in here,
ZH: 如果你在这里某个地方买入了
20:40 - 20:43
EN: the important thing to do is use a reasonable stop.
ZH: 重要的是使用合理的止损
20:43 - 20:48
EN: You don’t want it to be too small because, as I said, small stop means small risk.
ZH: 止损不能太小，正如之前所说，如果风险太小
20:48 - 20:51
EN: Small risk means you’ll probably lose money.
ZH: 胜率也会变得很低
20:51 - 20:53
EN: It’s a low probability of success.
ZH: 成功赚到钱的概率很低
20:54 - 20:58
EN: And should you use a stop all the way down here if you buy here?
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，是否应该把止损放在这么远的地方？
20:58 - 21:02
EN: Well, that could be much bigger than what you’re comfortable risking.
ZH: 我想你肯定不愿意冒这么大的风险（盈亏比太差）
21:02 - 21:05
EN: That could be unreasonable as well.
ZH: 所以这也是不合理的选择
21:11 - 21:14
EN: You’re always making tradeoffs among the variables in the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 交易者总是在风险、利润和概率之间权衡
21:15 - 21:18
EN: When you have a strong breakout like this or like this,
ZH: 当出现这么强势的突破，
21:18 - 21:20
EN: the probability is high that the market’s going higher.
ZH: 市场继续上涨的概率很高
21:21 - 21:26
EN: Whenever the probability is high,
ZH: 而每当概率很高的时候，盈亏比就不会太好
21:23 - 21:26
EN: you always are going to have a bad risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 而每当概率很高的时候，盈亏比就不会太好
21:27 - 21:30
EN: That usually means that the stop is far away.
ZH: 这通常意味着止损会很远
21:30 - 21:37
EN: If you buy here, the stop is far away, and you’re buying late,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，止损很远； 并且因为你入场晚，所以剩余的利润空间就不多了
21:33 - 21:37
EN: and therefore there’s less reward remaining in the trade.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，止损很远； 并且因为你入场晚，所以剩余的利润空间就不多了
21:38 - 21:41
EN: High probability buying a strong breakout like this,
ZH: 所以在强势突破时买入，胜率很高
21:41 - 21:44
EN: usually means bad risk/reward.
ZH: 但盈亏比不会很好
21:48 - 21:50
EN: That’s the tradeoff.
ZH: 这就是权衡
21:50 - 21:53
EN: Whenever you’re taking a trade because it has high probability,
ZH: 每当你选择一个高胜率的交易机会时
21:53 - 21:57
EN: you pay for that high probability with bad risk/reward.
ZH: 你牺牲了盈亏比，来换取更高的胜率
22:00 - 22:02
EN: Let’s say you bought anywhere in here.
ZH: 假设你在这里的任何地方买入
22:02 - 22:05
EN: One choice would be putting a stop below the bottom of the gap,
ZH: 一种选择是把止损放在缺口低点下方
22:05 - 22:07
EN: betting that the gap will remain open.
ZH: 押注缺口会保持开放
22:07 - 22:10
EN: Obviously the best stop is here, but for some traders,
ZH: 显然最好的止损在这里，但对于一些交易者而言，
22:10 - 22:14
EN: that’s too much to risk, and therefore they need a tighter stop.
ZH: 这个止损距离太大了，所以他们需要更窄的止损
22:14 - 22:18
EN: One choice is right below the high of the breakout bar,
ZH: 另一种选择是把止损放在突破K线的下方，
22:18 - 22:20
EN: betting that maybe we’ll get a Measured Move up.
ZH: 押注会达到上方的MM目标位
22:23 - 22:26
EN: You could also put your stop below the low of this breakout bar,
ZH: 你也可以把止损放在这个突破K线的低点下方
22:26 - 22:28
EN: or even below the low of this bar.
ZH: 甚至放在这根K线的低点下方
22:28 - 22:30
EN: I would not put it below this bar.
ZH: 我不会放在它的下方（注：指最低的那条绿色线）
22:30 - 22:32
EN: It’s so close to the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 因为它和这个波段的起涨点很近
22:32 - 22:35
EN: I would instead put it here instead of here.
ZH: 那我不如直接放在起涨点的下方
22:35 - 22:38
EN: But these are other reasonable choices.
ZH: 但这些都是合理的选择
22:40 - 22:42
EN: You could put your stop all the way down at the bottom
ZH: 当然，你也可以把止损放在整个大趋势的起涨点下方
22:42 - 22:45
EN: of the bull trend down here or here;
ZH: 比如在这里或这里
22:45 - 22:48
EN: however, after 50 or 60 bars rallying,
ZH: 然而，在上涨了50~60根K线之后
22:48 - 22:51
EN: most traders would not use a stop that wide.
ZH: 绝大多数交易者不会使用这么宽的止损
22:51 - 22:52
EN: They would use a tighter stop.
ZH: 他们会把止损收窄
Slide 012
Time: 23:00
Bilingual Transcript
23:01 - 23:10
EN: Beginners often make the mistake of pretending that the risk
ZH: 新手经常犯的一个错误是：低估了自己的所承担的风险
23:05 - 23:10
EN: they’re exposing themselves to is really not as risky as they think.
ZH: 新手经常犯的一个错误是：低估了自己的所承担的风险
23:15 - 23:19
EN: For example, let’s say you buy a High 1 bull flag or a High 2 bull flag here.
ZH: 例如，假设在这里的高1或高2买入
23:23 - 23:25
EN: Can you put your stop below the bottom of the bull trend?
ZH: 然后把止损放在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
23:25 - 23:28
EN: That is an appropriate location for the stop.
ZH: 这是一个合理的止损位置
23:28 - 23:31
EN: If you’re a beginner, you take that a trade
ZH: 如果新手做了这笔交易
23:31 - 23:35
EN: and you put your stop down here, knowing it’s the right place for the stop.
ZH: 然后把止损放在这里，心里知道这是正确的止损位
23:35 - 23:38
EN: Most beginners will panic and say
ZH: 但大部分新手会感到惊慌：
23:38 - 23:40
EN: “Oh my gosh, I never thought it would get down here.
ZH: “天哪！没想到真的会跌那么多！
23:40 - 23:43
EN: I really did not intend to risk that much.”
ZH: 我真的没有打算冒这么大的风险！”
23:43 - 23:45
EN: They knew it was the right place for the stop,
ZH: 他们知道这是正确的止损位置
23:45 - 23:52
EN: but they never were willing to hold onto their positions and rely on that stop.
ZH: 但他们实际上并不愿意依赖这个止损并且坚定持有
24:00 - 24:05
EN: Whenever you’re entering late in a trend, far above the most reasonable stop,
ZH: 如果你入场晚，止损很远，
24:05 - 24:08
EN: your risk is great and you have to trade small,
ZH: 那么你的风险就很大，所以必须用小仓位交易
24:08 - 24:11
EN: because you have to remain within your comfort zone,
ZH: 因为你必须呆在（心理、情绪的）舒适圈内
24:11 - 24:17
EN: and you have to make sure that you are not risking any more
ZH: 并且你要保证这笔交易的风险不会比平时的交易更大
24:14 - 24:17
EN: on this trade than you would on any other trade.
ZH: 并且你要保证这笔交易的风险不会比平时的交易更大
24:18 - 24:22
EN: There’s always the possibility that before we get a second leg up,
ZH: 在第2段上涨之前，总是有可能会先有深度的回调
24:22 - 24:29
EN: we’ll get a very deep pullback, and instead of this being the start
ZH: 在第2段上涨之前，总是有可能会先有深度的回调 那么这就不是一个大的上涨趋势的开始， 而是会变成震荡区间
24:24 - 24:29
EN: of a bull trend, it might be a bull leg
ZH: 那么这就不是一个大的上涨趋势的开始， 而是会变成震荡区间
24:27 - 24:29
EN: in what would end up being a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么这就不是一个大的上涨趋势的开始， 而是会变成震荡区间
24:30 - 24:33
EN: If you buy up here for any reason, the correct stop is down here.
ZH: 不管出于什么原因买入，正确的止损都在这里
24:33 - 24:38
EN: If it falls below this low, your premise of a bull trend is probably not valid.
ZH: 如果这个低点被跌破，上涨趋势的前提就不再有效
24:38 - 24:41
EN: However, instead of a bull trend, it could be a Trading Range
ZH: 然而，它有可能不是上涨趋势，而是震荡区间
24:41 - 24:46
EN: and fall very far down, not hit your stop – and if that’s true
ZH: 可能会下跌很多，但没有打到你的止损
24:46 - 24:48
EN: and it is a Trading Range, it’ll probably come back up
ZH: ——如果确实是这样，是震荡区间，
24:48 - 24:50
EN: to your original entry price.
ZH: 那么市场大概率会回到你的初始入场价格
24:50 - 24:54
EN: Had you bought here, and you bought more maybe above a bull bar here,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，并且在这里的阳线上方加仓
24:54 - 24:57
EN: you could hold on for the market to come back to your entry price,
ZH: 你就可以一直持有，等到市场回到初始入场价格的时候
24:57 - 25:01
EN: get out breakeven on your first entry and with a profit on your lower entry.
ZH: 第一笔仓位打平，下方加仓的部分赚钱
25:03 - 25:08
EN: The point is, whenever you take a trade and you see the obvious stop,
ZH: 重点是，在交易时，每当你看到一个合理的止损
25:08 - 25:10
EN: you rely on that stop.
ZH: 你就要依赖它
25:11 - 25:14
EN: If you cannot risk that much, do not take the trade.
ZH: 如果你不能承担那么大的风险，就不要做这笔交易
25:19 - 25:21
EN: Even though the market pulled back very deeply,
ZH: 尽管市场回调得很深，
25:21 - 25:25
EN: I think most traders would see it as still Always In Long.
ZH: 我认为大多数交易者仍然更愿意做多，而不是做空
25:25 - 25:27
EN: We had a pair of bear bars here,
ZH: 这里有几根大阴线
25:27 - 25:32
EN: but possibly a Wedge bull flag – a bear channel, bull flag.
ZH: 但更可能是楔形牛旗——下降通道，牛旗
25:33 - 25:36
EN: For the rest of it, it never had consecutive big bear trend bars,
ZH: 接下来，再也没有出现过连续的大阴线
25:36 - 25:39
EN: and therefore it’s probably still a bull flag.
ZH: 因此它仍然大概率是一个牛旗
25:39 - 25:44
EN: It’s probably a bear leg in a Trading Range, and not the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 更有可能是震荡区间中的一段下跌，而不是下降趋势的开始
25:44 - 25:48
EN: If it’s a Trading Range and it sells off, it probably will rally again
ZH: 如果这确实是震荡区间中的抛售， 那么市场就会再次反弹
25:48 - 25:50
EN: and get back up to the top of the range.
ZH: 回到区间的上沿
25:55 - 26:03
EN: Many traders who bought here, if they see 3 bear bars closing
ZH: 许多在这里买入的交易者，如果看到3根阴线收在低位， 他们会提前离场，这是合理的做法
25:59 - 26:03
EN: below their midpoints or on their lows, would just exit, and that’s reasonable.
ZH: 许多在这里买入的交易者，如果看到3根阴线收在低位， 他们会提前离场，这是合理的做法
26:03 - 26:05
EN: And then they can buy again on a reversal up.
ZH: 然后他们可以在反转上涨时再次买入
26:06 - 26:11
EN: It’s okay to hold on, betting that the market will not fall below the bottom
ZH: 一直持有也是可以的，押注市场不会跌破上涨趋势的起涨点
26:11 - 26:13
EN: of the bull trend, and you can add on lower.
ZH: 然后你可以在更低的位置加仓
26:16 - 26:23
EN: A lot of bulls will exit, and when the bears see 3 consecutive bear bars
ZH: 许多多头会提前离场； 而当空头看到连续3根阴线收在低位时，他们会做空
26:20 - 26:23
EN: closing on or near their lows, they’ll sell.
ZH: 许多多头会提前离场； 而当空头看到连续3根阴线收在低位时，他们会做空
26:23 - 26:25
EN: Here’s a High 1 buy.
ZH: 这里是高1做多入场点
26:25 - 26:29
EN: 3 bars down, a pullback, 3 bear bars, probably sellers above.
ZH: 连续3根阴线下跌，反弹，在这个高点上方大概率有很多卖盘
26:29 - 26:33
EN: So traders will sell this close and they’ll sell at the high of this bar,
ZH: 所以交易者会在它的收盘卖出， 也会在这根K线的高点挂限价卖单
26:34 - 26:38
EN: betting that it’s a bad buy signal and therefore probably sellers above,
ZH: 押注这是一个糟糕的做多信号，押注上方有卖盘
26:38 - 26:40
EN: and at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 押注至少会有小的第2段下跌
26:45 - 26:47
EN: We have a spike down, a breakout,
ZH: 急速下跌，这是突破
26:47 - 26:52
EN: and then three pushes down – one, two, three or four.
ZH: 然后3次向下推动——1，2，3，还有4
26:52 - 26:57
EN: That’s a Spike and Channel Wedge Bottom, and most importantly it’s a Higher Low.
ZH: 这是急速变通道的楔形底，更重要的是，低点仍然高于起涨点
26:57 - 27:00
EN: It never clearly became Always In Short.
ZH: 没有明确地进入单边下跌
27:00 - 27:04
EN: If you relied on your stop and managed your trade correctly,
ZH: 如果你依赖正确的止损，并正确管理这笔交易
27:04 - 27:10
EN: you could buy again on the reversal up above this bull bar or this bull bar
ZH: 你可以在这个、这个或这个阳线上方再次买入， 突破买单会在这里成交
27:08 - 27:10
EN: or this bull bar, get filled here,
ZH: 你可以在这个、这个或这个阳线上方再次买入， 突破买单会在这里成交
27:10 - 27:13
EN: and the market would come back to your original entry price.
ZH: 市场会回到你的初始入场价格
27:13 - 27:18
EN: You get out breakeven on your first entry and with a profit on your lower entry.
ZH: 第一笔仓位打平，下方加仓的部分赚钱
Slide 013
Time: 27:20
Bilingual Transcript
27:26 - 27:29
EN: Sometimes when you have a wide stop, it’s going to get hit.
ZH: 偶尔你的宽止损也会被打到
27:29 - 27:33
EN: Even if the stop makes really good sense, it’s still going to get hit.
ZH: 即使是再合理的止损，也有概率被打到
27:33 - 27:37
EN: You have to trade small enough so that if the stop does get hit,
ZH: 所以你的仓位必须足够小，这样的话， 就算止损真的被打到
27:37 - 27:42
EN: you do not lose any more on that trade than you do on any other trade.
ZH: 你在这笔交易中亏的钱，也不会比平时其它交易更多
27:46 - 27:52
EN: For example, we have a bear trend and a Low 1 bear flag, maybe a Low 2 bear flag.
ZH: 例如，下降趋势，低1熊旗，然后低2熊旗
27:52 - 27:55
EN: This is a breakout, potential gap and Measured Move up.
ZH: 多头（反转）突破，这里有测量型缺口， 可能会涨到上方的MM目标位
27:55 - 27:56
EN: It’s not a terrible short.
ZH: 这不是一个很烂的做空机会
27:56 - 27:57
EN: It’s an okay short.
ZH: 做空是可以的
27:57 - 27:59
EN: This certainly is an okay short.
ZH: 当然是合理的做空
27:59 - 28:04
EN: If you want, you can call it a Low 1 or a Low 2, a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 你可以把它看作低1，或者因为是小双顶，可以看作是低2
28:03 - 28:04
EN: You can call it a Low 2.
ZH: 你可以把它看作低1，或者因为是小双顶，可以看作是低2
28:04 - 28:06
EN: Selling below that bar, you get filled here.
ZH: 在它的下方挂突破卖单，订单在这里成交
28:10 - 28:14
EN: And let’s say you put a stop above the top of this Sell Climax
ZH: 假设你把止损放在这个抛售高潮的起跌点上方，
28:14 - 28:17
EN: or above the top of the entire bear trend.
ZH: 或放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方
28:17 - 28:19
EN: Either one is reasonable.
ZH: 两者都是合理的选择
28:22 - 28:24
EN: And then we got this huge bull breakout.
ZH: 结果出现了这个巨大的多头突破
28:24 - 28:32
EN: Whether you put your stop above the top of the final bear Sell Climax
ZH: 不管你把止损放在这里或这里，都会被打到
28:29 - 28:32
EN: or the entire bear trend, your stop got hit.
ZH: 不管你把止损放在这里或这里，都会被打到
28:32 - 28:34
EN: And that’s going to happen.
ZH: 有时确实会出现这样的情况
28:34 - 28:40
EN: In general, a stop is going to get hit on about 40%
ZH: 通常来说，在40%的交易中止损会被打到， 当你更有经验之后，会越来越少
28:37 - 28:40
EN: of the trades until you become experienced.
ZH: 通常来说，在40%的交易中止损会被打到， 当你更有经验之后，会越来越少
28:45 - 28:49
EN: Traders who did put their stop above the top of the bear trend
ZH: 如果交易者把止损放在下降趋势的起跌点上方，
28:49 - 28:53
EN: got stopped out over here, but if you trade small enough
ZH: 他们会在这里止损离场； 但是如果你的仓位足够小，
28:53 - 28:58
EN: so that if you get stopped out, you do not lose any more on this trade
ZH: 那么就算止损被打到，你的亏损也不会比平时其它的交易更多
28:58 - 29:02
EN: than you do on any other trade, it’s basically erasing
ZH: 最多就是把上一笔交易赚的钱亏了回去
29:02 - 29:07
EN: your last positive winning trade and not your last 10 positive winning trades.
ZH: 而不是一次亏完10笔交易的盈利
29:13 - 29:21
EN: I talked about how Measured Move targets can be useful in determining
ZH: 这节课我讲了如何根据MM目标位来确定合理的止损
Slide 014
Time: 29:15
Bilingual Transcript
29:18 - 29:21
EN: where a reasonable stop should be,
ZH: 这节课我讲了如何根据MM目标位来确定合理的止损
29:21 - 29:24
EN: and that’s true for other support and resistance as well.
ZH: 对于其他支撑和阻力也是如此
29:24 - 29:30
EN: Also, sometimes you’ll have a reasonable setup and the signal bar is very small.
ZH: 此外，有时你发现了一个合理的机会，但信号K线非常小
29:30 - 29:34
EN: It’s usually a mistake to put the stop just beyond the signal bar.
ZH: 把止损放在它的外面通常不是好的选择
29:34 - 29:37
EN: Small signal bars fail too often.
ZH: 小的信号K线经常失败
29:37 - 29:40
EN: The market goes beyond the signal bar
ZH: 市场可以反向突破这个信号K线，打掉你的止损，
29:40 - 29:43
EN: and then again resumes in your intended direction.
ZH: 然后重新回到你预期的方向
29:43 - 29:46
EN: It’s usually better to use at least a slightly wider stop.
ZH: 所以最好使用略微宽一点的止损
29:50 - 29:51
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
29:51 - 29:53
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
29:53 - 29:57
EN: This is the sixth of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 保护性止损的第6节课，就先讲到这里