al-brooks-course
47A - Trading in Trading Ranges
Raw transcript and slide notes for 47A - Trading in Trading Ranges.
Overview
- Slides: 18
- Transcript segments: 593
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Trading Ranges.
ZH: 接下来的4节课，我们来讲如何交易震荡区间
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:20
EN: Just like channels can be tight or broad, Trading Ranges can also be tight
ZH: 就像通道一样，震荡区间有宽有窄， 应该用不同的方法去交易
00:18 - 00:20
EN: or broad, and you trade them differently.
ZH: 就像通道一样，震荡区间有宽有窄， 应该用不同的方法去交易
00:21 - 00:24
EN: I think it’s important to look for early signs of what the market
ZH: 在市场周期变化的初期识别出信号，是非常重要的
00:24 - 00:30
EN: might be doing, and therefore traders have to be aware
ZH: 交易者必须要能够发现市场正在进入震荡区间
00:27 - 00:30
EN: of the early signs that a Trading Range might be forming.
ZH: 交易者必须要能够发现市场正在进入震荡区间
Slide 002
Time: 00:31
Bilingual Transcript
00:34 - 00:36
EN: Trading Ranges can be very broad.
ZH: 震荡区间可以非常宽
00:36 - 00:38
EN: They can be very tight.
ZH: 也可以非常窄
00:42 - 00:47
EN: When they’re broad, as they are here, traders can buy for swings.
ZH: 如果是宽震荡区间，比如这个，多头可以在低位买入做波段
00:47 - 00:48
EN: They can sell for swings.
ZH: 空头可以在高位卖出做波段
00:48 - 00:49
EN: They can also scalp.
ZH: 也可以做剥头皮交易
00:49 - 00:52
EN: In general, once you think that the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 总的来说，如果你认为市场处于震荡区间
00:52 - 00:56
EN: it’s better to look to buy in the lower third and take quick profits.
ZH: 最好在底部三分之一做多并快速止盈
00:56 - 01:00
EN: Scalp and sell in the upper third and take quick profits.
ZH: 在顶部三分之一做空，然后快速止盈
01:00 - 01:00
EN: Scalp.
ZH: 剥头皮
01:03 - 01:08
EN: A good way to do it is to buy reversals up from near the bottom of the range.
ZH: 在价格从底部反转上涨时买入，是一个好的做法
01:08 - 01:12
EN: This is a second entry for a failed breakout below this low.
ZH: 这里跌破前期低点失败，是第2做多入场点
01:12 - 01:13
EN: The first went above this bar,
ZH: 第1入场点是这根K线的上方
01:13 - 01:17
EN: and then now we have a bull bar closing near its high.
ZH: 现在有一根阳线收在高位
01:17 - 01:19
EN: That’s a higher probability entry.
ZH: 在它上方买入做多的胜率更高
01:19 - 01:20
EN: Here we have a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底
01:20 - 01:22
EN: We went down on this bear bar.
ZH: 这根阴线下跌
01:22 - 01:24
EN: This bar has a bull body, so it went up.
ZH: 这根小阳线上涨
01:24 - 01:27
EN: This bar has a bear body, so it went down, and now we’re going up again.
ZH: 这根阴线再次下跌，然后再次反转上涨
01:27 - 01:29
EN: So, a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 所以是一个小双底
01:29 - 01:32
EN: Buy above the bear bar or buy above the bull bar,
ZH: 在这根阴线上方买入，或在这根阳线上方买入
01:32 - 01:36
EN: and now we have a test of this low, so now we have a small Double Bottom.
ZH: 再次下跌测试这个低点，形成了双底
01:36 - 01:38
EN: Traders will buy a reversal up.
ZH: 多头会在反转上涨时买入
01:40 - 01:45
EN: Entering with stops is a good way
ZH: 对新手来说，用突破单入场是一个好的做法
01:42 - 01:45
EN: for traders to trade when they’re starting out.
ZH: 对新手来说，用突破单入场是一个好的做法
01:45 - 01:47
EN: In fact, it’s the best way for them to trade when they’re starting out.
ZH: 事实上，对新手来说这是最好的做法
01:49 - 01:52
EN: The opposite is true at the high.
ZH: 在区间顶部也是一样
01:52 - 01:54
EN: Traders will sell reversals down.
ZH: 在反转下跌时卖出做空
01:54 - 01:57
EN: A big bull bar late in a trend,
ZH: 上涨趋势后期的大阳线
01:57 - 01:59
EN: an attempt to break above the top of the channel.
ZH: 尝试加速突破通道的上沿
01:59 - 02:00
EN: Likely to fail.
ZH: 75%的概率会失败
02:00 - 02:02
EN: Traders will sell a reversal down.
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空
02:03 - 02:07
EN: Here we have an attempt to break out above a Double Top.
ZH: 这里尝试向上突破双顶
02:07 - 02:09
EN: Traders will sell a reversal down.
ZH: 失败，在反转下跌时做空
02:09 - 02:13
EN: This is not ideal because it’s more in the middle third of the range.
ZH: 这个做空机会不是最理想， 因为目前价格在中间三分之一，而不是顶部
02:13 - 02:16
EN: This is a better sell, testing a prior high.
ZH: 这个做空机会更好——测试前期的高点
02:16 - 02:20
EN: Reversed down with a good bear bar, and now there’s another good sell signal bar
ZH: 阴线反转下跌；第二次反转下跌的做空信号K线也非常好
02:20 - 02:23
EN: – a bear bar closing near its low, good size bear body.
ZH: 阴线收在最低，体积也不小
02:23 - 02:26
EN: Traders will sell with a stop just below the low of that bear bar.
ZH: 空头会在这根阴线的下方挂突破卖单做空
02:26 - 02:32
EN: Again here, two legs up – one, pullback, two – in the top third of the range.
ZH: 还有这里，两段上涨——1，回调，2—— 涨到了区间的顶部三分之一
02:32 - 02:36
EN: Traders will look to sell, maybe not so much below this bull bar,
ZH: 交易者寻找做空机会，这根阳线不是好的做空信号
02:36 - 02:41
EN: but maybe below that bear bar or maybe below this bear bar or that bear bar.
ZH: 但可以把突破卖单挂在这根阴线下方，或者那根阴线， 或者这根阴线，还有那根阴线
02:43 - 02:46
EN: Experienced traders will enter with limit orders,
ZH: 经验丰富的交易者会用限价单入场
02:46 - 02:49
EN: betting that reversal attempts will fail.
ZH: 押注反转（或突破）的尝试会失败
02:49 - 02:52
EN: For example, here we have 4 consecutive bull bars,
ZH: 例如，这里有连续4根阳线
02:52 - 02:54
EN: all closing above their midpoints.
ZH: 全都收在一半以上
02:54 - 02:57
EN: Chances are this is a bad sell signal bar
ZH: 这根K线大概率不是好的做空信号K
02:57 - 03:01
EN: and there’ll be more buyers than sellers below the low of the bar.
ZH: 在它的下方会有更多人买入，而不是卖出
03:01 - 03:04
EN: Traders will buy with a limit order at the low of that bar and get filled here.
ZH: 多头会在这根K线的低点挂限价买单，订单会在这里成交
03:05 - 03:11
EN: The bears are trying to get a breakout below a channel, just above a prior low.
ZH: 空头尝试加速跌破下降通道， 现在就在前期低点附近
03:11 - 03:15
EN: Every breakout attempt here reverses up within a bar or two.
ZH: 这里每次向下跌破之后，都会在一两根K线之内反弹
03:15 - 03:18
EN: Chances are this breakout will reverse up as well.
ZH: 所以这次跌破也会反转上涨
03:18 - 03:21
EN: Some traders will buy with a limit order at that low.
ZH: 一些交易者会在那个低点挂限价单买入
03:21 - 03:24
EN: Many of them are willing to scale in lower.
ZH: 其中很多人愿意在更低的价格加仓
03:25 - 03:29
EN: We broke below this low and we pulled back, but the sell signal bar
ZH: 下跌，然后反弹，出现了做空信号K线
03:29 - 03:34
EN: is a doji bar and the breakout is weak, a small bear bar followed by a doji bar.
ZH: 但它是十字星，而且突破很弱—— 小阴线，然后十字星
03:34 - 03:37
EN: Therefore, this is a bad-looking Low 1 bear flag.
ZH: 所以这不是一个好的低1做空入场点
03:37 - 03:39
EN: Probably more buyers below.
ZH: 大概率在下方有很多买盘
03:39 - 03:43
EN: Traders will buy with a limit order at its low and get filled here.
ZH: 多头会在这个低点挂限价买单，在这里成交
03:43 - 03:48
EN: They’ll also buy with a limit order at a new low,
ZH: 他们还会在新低、这个低点挂限价买单，在这里成交
03:45 - 03:48
EN: at this low, and get filled here.
ZH: 他们还会在新低、这个低点挂限价买单，在这里成交
03:51 - 03:54
EN: Bears will be doing the same thing at the top.
ZH: 空头在顶部也是一样的做法
03:54 - 03:57
EN: We have a Buy Climax breaking above a prior high,
ZH: 抢购高潮，突破了前期的高点
03:57 - 04:02
EN: breaking above a bull channel, and we have a weak looking buy signal bar.
ZH: 尝试加速突破上涨通道，但是高1信号K很弱
04:02 - 04:04
EN: We have a bull doji bar.
ZH: 它基本上只是一个十字星
04:04 - 04:07
EN: Traders will sell above the high – both bars have big tails
ZH: 空头会在它的高点挂限价卖单——这两根K线的上影线都很长
04:07 - 04:10
EN: - betting that there will be more sellers than buyers up there.
ZH: 空头押注上方会有更多人卖出，而不是追涨
04:10 - 04:17
EN: Here, in the middle of the range, traders will sell
ZH: 这里，当中的区域，尤其当上涨比较弱的时候， 空头会在高点上方挂限价卖单
04:14 - 04:17
EN: with limit orders above highs, especially when the rally is weak.
ZH: 这里，当中的区域，尤其当上涨比较弱的时候， 空头会在高点上方挂限价卖单
04:17 - 04:21
EN: It looks more like a bull leg in a Trading Range than the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 它看起来更像是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而不是上涨趋势的开始
04:21 - 04:25
EN: Here, the bulls have a great looking bull bar, but it’s a big bar,
ZH: 这里有一根非常漂亮的阳线，但是它体积很大
04:25 - 04:33
EN: and therefore traders buying above its high and putting a stop
ZH: 如果多头在它的上方买入，然后把止损放在它的低点下方， 这个止损距离比较远（注：盈亏比不好）
04:28 - 04:33
EN: below its low have big risk, and they’re buying after 2 big bear bars
ZH: 如果多头在它的上方买入，然后把止损放在它的低点下方， 这个止损距离比较远（注：盈亏比不好）
04:33 - 04:38
EN: at the top of a potential Trading Range, and therefore the probability is bad.
ZH: 而且在区间的顶部出现了连续两根阴线，做多的胜率也不高
04:38 - 04:42
EN: When that happens, you can get a bull bar, but there probably
ZH: 在这种情况下，尽管有强势的阳线，
04:42 - 04:45
EN: are going to be more sellers at its high than buyers.
ZH: 但它的上方会有更多人卖出，而不是追涨
04:45 - 04:48
EN: Experienced traders will sell with a limit order at that high,
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员会在它的高点挂限价卖单
04:48 - 04:51
EN: betting that the bulls who buy there will lose money.
ZH: 押注在那里追涨的多头会亏钱
04:54 - 04:59
EN: When a Trading Range is tight, most traders should not trade,
ZH: 如果震荡区间像这样，这么窄的话， 大多数交易者不应该在这里面交易
Slide 003
Time: 04:55
Bilingual Transcript
04:58 - 04:59
EN: especially when it’s very tight like this.
ZH: 如果震荡区间像这样，这么窄的话， 大多数交易者不应该在这里面交易
05:00 - 05:04
EN: But experienced traders will trade with limit orders and they will scalp.
ZH: 少数经验丰富的交易员会在里面用限价单剥头皮
05:10 - 05:19
EN: Trading Ranges often have legs that last 10, 20, 30 bars,
ZH: 震荡区间里经常会有持续10、20、30根K线的波段， 足够做波段交易了
05:15 - 05:19
EN: and that often is long enough for traders to make a swing trade.
ZH: 震荡区间里经常会有持续10、20、30根K线的波段， 足够做波段交易了
05:21 - 05:23
EN: A very strong bear reversal.
ZH: 非常强势的反转下跌
05:23 - 05:25
EN: 3 consecutive bear bars closing near their lows,
ZH: 连续3根阴线收在最低
05:25 - 05:28
EN: and we have a Low 1 short and now another short.
ZH: 这里是低1，现在又有一个做空信号
05:28 - 05:33
EN: It’s a reasonable swing trade, hoping that the market becomes a bear trend.
ZH: 在这里做空是合理的，押注市场进入下降趋势
05:33 - 05:38
EN: It ended up trading down for another 20 bars or so, but the selloff was weak.
ZH: 最终，市场继续下跌了20根K线，但趋势很弱
05:38 - 05:41
EN: It lacked consecutive big bear bars and it had many reversals.
ZH: 没有连续的大阴线，而且一直有反弹
05:41 - 05:45
EN: It was therefore more likely a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 因此它更有可能是震荡区间中的下跌波段
05:51 - 05:56
EN: Here, this is a very tight range within a broader range,
ZH: 这个很窄的小区间，位于大的震荡区间内部
05:56 - 06:03
EN: and when the range is tight like this – I’ll talk about tight ranges later on,
ZH: 我稍后会讲到窄区间——如果区间这么窄的话，是很难赚钱的
06:00 - 06:03
EN: but when a range is very tight like this, it’s very difficult to make money.
ZH: 我稍后会讲到窄区间——如果区间这么窄的话，是很难赚钱的
06:04 - 06:07
EN: You’re looking for a minimum scalp, maybe 1 or 2 points,
ZH: 剥头皮的最低目标是一两个点
06:07 - 06:13
EN: and it’s very difficult to make money when the range
ZH: 但这个区间太窄了，高度只有3个点， 很可能连最低目标都赚不到
06:10 - 06:13
EN: is only a little bit bigger than the size of a minimum scalp.
ZH: 但这个区间太窄了，高度只有3个点， 很可能连最低目标都赚不到
06:14 - 06:17
EN: Experienced traders will enter with limit orders.
ZH: 少数经验丰富的剥头皮交易员会用限价单入场
06:17 - 06:19
EN: Here’s a bull bar after 3 bear bars.
ZH: 3根阴线之后，有一根阳线
06:19 - 06:23
EN: They’ll buy below the bull bar, betting that it’s a bad sell.
ZH: 他们在这根阳线的下方挂限价买单， 押注在它的下方会有更多买盘
06:23 - 06:27
EN: Here’s a bear inside bar near the top of a developing Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这根空头孕线处于窄震荡区间的顶部
06:27 - 06:31
EN: Traders will sell at the high of that bar, betting that it’s a bad buy.
ZH: 他们会在它的高点挂限价卖单，押注没有人会在这里追涨
Slide 004
Time: 06:33
Bilingual Transcript
06:34 - 06:39
EN: This is a bull channel, this is a bear channel, and this is a Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨通道，下降通道，震荡区间
06:42 - 06:44
EN: When the market’s in a bull channel,
ZH: 当市场处于上涨通道时
06:44 - 06:48
EN: traders try to buy pullbacks into the bottom half of the range,
ZH: 多头想要在通道的下半部分逢低买入
06:48 - 06:50
EN: whether it’s a bull channel or a bear channel as well.
ZH: 下降通道也是一样
06:50 - 06:56
EN: If it’s a broad enough bear channel, traders will look to buy
ZH: 如果下降通道足够宽，多头也会在通道的下半部分买入做多， 比如在前期低点下方挂限价买单
06:53 - 06:56
EN: in the bottom half of the range, like below prior lows.
ZH: 如果下降通道足够宽，多头也会在通道的下半部分买入做多， 比如在前期低点下方挂限价买单
06:59 - 07:04
EN: In a bear channel, traders will look to sell in the top half of the range.
ZH: 在下降通道中，交易者会考虑在通道的上半部分逢高做空
07:04 - 07:10
EN: If the market’s in a bull channel and it has pretty deep pullbacks
ZH: 如果是宽上涨通道、有深度的回调
07:08 - 07:10
EN: - in other words, a pretty Broad Channel
ZH: 如果是宽上涨通道、有深度的回调
07:10 - 07:13
EN: - traders will look to sell in the top half of the range.
ZH: 空头也会在通道的上半部分卖出做空
07:16 - 07:20
EN: In a Trading Range, rather than simply buying in the bottom half,
ZH: 在震荡区间中，最好不要直接在下半部分买入
07:20 - 07:22
EN: it’s usually better to buy in the bottom third
ZH: 最好在底部三分之一买入（注：更保守，在更低的价格买入）
07:22 - 07:26
EN: because the market typically retraces very close to the low.
ZH: 因为市场往往会跌到区间的底部
07:30 - 07:32
EN: The opposite is true at the high.
ZH: 逢高做空也是一样
07:32 - 07:34
EN: It’s usually better to sell in the upper third
ZH: 最好在顶部三分之一卖出做空
07:34 - 07:36
EN: of the range rather than in the middle third.
ZH: 而不是在中间三分之一入场
07:36 - 07:40
EN: The middle third of the range – the market tends to spend most of its time
ZH: 市场大部分时候都在中间三分之一震荡，
07:40 - 07:46
EN: in the middle third of the range, briefly breaking in the lower third,
ZH: 偶尔跌到底部三分之一，偶尔涨到顶部三分之一
07:44 - 07:46
EN: briefly breaking in the upper third.
ZH: 偶尔跌到底部三分之一，偶尔涨到顶部三分之一
07:46 - 07:50
EN: But this is the best place to sell, and this is the best place to buy.
ZH: 这是最好的做空区域，这是最好的做多区域
07:50 - 07:55
EN: In the middle third, traders usually should do
ZH: 而在中间三分之一，交易者通常没必要去交易
07:53 - 07:55
EN: very little trading if they trade at all.
ZH: 而在中间三分之一，交易者通常没必要去交易
Slide 005
Time: 08:02
Bilingual Transcript
08:03 - 08:06
EN: Markets are either in trends or in Trading Ranges,
ZH: 市场要么处于趋势，要么处于震荡区间，
08:06 - 08:08
EN: and they transition one from the other.
ZH: 而且市场周期会转变
08:08 - 08:11
EN: A Trading Range eventually has a successful breakout,
ZH: 震荡区间最终会突破，
08:11 - 08:14
EN: and a trend eventually evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 趋势最终会进入震荡区间
08:15 - 08:20
EN: It’s helpful to look at a trend for early signs of conversion
ZH: 如果能提前发现趋势变成区间的信号，对交易会很有帮助
08:19 - 08:27
EN: into a Trading Range, because once it’s a Trading Range
ZH: 如果能提前发现趋势变成区间的信号，对交易会很有帮助 因为进入区间之后，就不能再用趋势的策略去交易了
08:23 - 08:27
EN: you’re going to be trading it differently
ZH: 因为进入区间之后，就不能再用趋势的策略去交易了
08:25 - 08:27
EN: from how you traded it when it was a trend.
ZH: 因为进入区间之后，就不能再用趋势的策略去交易了
Slide 006
Time: 08:28
Bilingual Transcript
08:31 - 08:33
EN: Strong rally here.
ZH: 强势上涨
08:34 - 08:35
EN: Strong rally here.
ZH: 这里也是强势上涨
08:36 - 08:39
EN: I always want to know what the bars to the left look like,
ZH: 我总是关注左边的背景
08:39 - 08:43
EN: and that tells me how I’m going to be trading this breakout.
ZH: 以此来决定如何交易这个突破行情
08:48 - 08:53
EN: The probability of higher prices depends a lot upon the bars to the left.
ZH: 继续上涨的概率很大程度上取决于左边的K线
08:56 - 09:02
EN: Here, we have a breakout, 3 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 左图，连续3根阳线突破，收在高位， 然后又有连续4根阳线
08:59 - 09:02
EN: closing near their highs, and another 4 consecutive bull bars,
ZH: 左图，连续3根阳线突破，收在高位， 然后又有连续4根阳线
09:02 - 09:07
EN: 2 of them good size bodies, breaking above a range.
ZH: 其中两根体积比较大； 突破了之前的震荡区间
09:07 - 09:08
EN: This is a strong breakout.
ZH: 这是强势的突破
09:08 - 09:13
EN: Probably it’ll either be a bull trend – a pullback and follow-through up
ZH: 大概率，要么是上涨趋势——回调之后继续上涨
09:13 - 09:16
EN: - or a bull leg in a bigger Trading Range.
ZH: 或者是一个大区间中的上涨波段
09:16 - 09:21
EN: In either case, buying up here is a good bet because even if it is a bull leg
ZH: 无论哪种情况，在这里买入都是一个不错的选择
09:21 - 09:24
EN: in a Trading Range, it’ll trade back down here, it’ll come back up here,
ZH: 因为就算是震荡区间，深度回调到这里，也还会再涨回来
09:24 - 09:27
EN: because Trading Ranges trade down and they trade up.
ZH: 震荡区间就是这样大跌、然后大涨
09:27 - 09:32
EN: So, this is a good buy, expecting higher prices or at least a pullback
ZH: 所以在这里买入是合理的，要么直接上涨
09:32 - 09:35
EN: that will come back to this price and you can avoid a loss.
ZH: 要么回调之后会涨回来，至少不会亏钱
09:40 - 09:43
EN: When the breakout is far above the bars to the left,
ZH: 如果突破远高于左边的K线，
09:43 - 09:46
EN: it’s more likely to be the start of a bull trend,
ZH: 那就更有可能是上涨趋势的开始
09:46 - 09:48
EN: and therefore you can expect higher prices.
ZH: 可以预期市场继续上涨
09:50 - 09:52
EN: On the other hand, look at this breakout.
ZH: 看看右图的这段上涨
09:52 - 09:54
EN: It looked even stronger than this one.
ZH: 看起来比左图更加强势
09:54 - 09:56
EN: But look to the left.
ZH: 但是看它左边的K线
09:56 - 09:59
EN: It’s not nearly as strong as the selloff that preceded it,
ZH: 远远不及左边下跌的力度
09:59 - 10:01
EN: and it did not go above this high.
ZH: 而且也没有突破前期高点
10:01 - 10:04
EN: Do you think this is a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 你觉得它是震荡区间中的上涨？
10:04 - 10:06
EN: or do you think this is the start of a big bull trend?
ZH: 还是上涨趋势的开始？
10:07 - 10:09
EN: Is it above all the bars to the left?
ZH: 有没有高于左边所有的K线？
10:09 - 10:11
EN: This was above all the bars to the left
ZH: 左图，价格突破了左边所有的K线
10:11 - 10:13
EN: and likely to have follow-through buying.
ZH: 资金很可能会继续买入
10:13 - 10:18
EN: This, we had a big move up, a big move down, and therefore big confusion,
ZH: 而这里，是大涨、大跌，因此造成了很大的困惑
10:18 - 10:21
EN: and big confusion usually means a Trading Range.
ZH: 困惑通常是代表震荡区间的特征
10:22 - 10:23
EN: Now we have another big move up.
ZH: 现在再次大涨
10:23 - 10:27
EN: So big move down, big move up – probably Trading Range.
ZH: 大跌、大涨——很可能是震荡区间
10:27 - 10:30
EN: Therefore, this is probably a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以这大概率是震荡区间中的上涨波段
10:30 - 10:34
EN: A lot of times Trading Ranges are filled with two- and three-legged moves,
ZH: 震荡区间中经常有两段和三段式的上涨和下跌
10:34 - 10:36
EN: and sometimes the two-legged moves are not so obvious.
ZH: 有时第2段陷阱不那么明显
10:36 - 10:39
EN: However, we went up here, a bull bar and then a bear bar.
ZH: 这根阳线涨到这里，然后阴线回调
10:39 - 10:43
EN: It’s possible that this is the second leg up in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这有可能就是震荡区间中的第2段上涨
10:43 - 10:46
EN: First leg here, pullback, second leg here.
ZH: 第1段，回调，第2段
10:51 - 10:55
EN: When you have a strong breakout like this, especially if it’s a second leg up
ZH: 当你看到这么强势的第2段上涨，
10:55 - 11:00
EN: but it’s not above all the bars to the recent left, the most recent 10, 20,
ZH: 但它还没有超过左边所有K线——最近10、20、30、40根K线的高点
11:00 - 11:08
EN: 30, 40 bars, it’s probably going to be a bull leg in what
ZH: 那么它更有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而不是一个大上涨趋势的开始
11:03 - 11:08
EN: will become a Trading Range and less likely to be the beginning of a bull trend.
ZH: 那么它更有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而不是一个大上涨趋势的开始
11:08 - 11:10
EN: If this continues up here, well above this bar,
ZH: 如果继续上涨，大幅突破这个高点
11:10 - 11:14
EN: and it has a couple strong bull bars like this closing above prior bars,
ZH: 并且像这里一样，有连续几根阳线收盘在前期高点上方
11:14 - 11:18
EN: then we can start talking about it as being the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 等那时再考虑它是上涨趋势的可能性
11:18 - 11:22
EN: But as long as it’s not breaking above a prior major Lower High,
ZH: 只要价格没有突破前期的重要高点
11:22 - 11:26
EN: it’s still more likely to be a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 它就仍然更有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
11:29 - 11:31
EN: Persistent breakout.
ZH: 持续的突破
11:31 - 11:37
EN: It’s a spike – on a higher timeframe chart
ZH: 它是急速上涨——在更高周期的K线图就是连续两三根大阳线； 然后回调
11:33 - 11:37
EN: it would simply be 2 or 3 bull bars – and then a pullback.
ZH: 它是急速上涨——在更高周期的K线图就是连续两三根大阳线； 然后回调
11:37 - 11:40
EN: You can call it a Triangle, you can call it a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 可以说它是三角形，也可以看作是3推楔形牛旗
11:40 - 11:45
EN: Three legs down – one and then bull bars and then two, pullback, and then three.
ZH: 3段下跌——1，阳线；2，反弹；然后3
11:45 - 11:49
EN: Spike, pullback, and channel.
ZH: 急速上涨、回调、进入通道，强上涨趋势
11:48 - 11:54
EN: Strong bull trend, and this reversed down deeply.
ZH: 急速上涨、回调、进入通道，强上涨趋势 而右图大幅反转下跌了
11:54 - 12:00
EN: Strong enough up so that it’s probably a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 非常强势的上涨，所以大概率是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而不仅仅是这段下跌的反弹
11:58 - 12:00
EN: and not a pullback in a bear trend.
ZH: 非常强势的上涨，所以大概率是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而不仅仅是这段下跌的反弹
12:00 - 12:04
EN: Therefore, even if a trader bought here, if they bought more lower,
ZH: 所以，交易者即使追涨在这个高点， 如果在下方加仓的话
12:04 - 12:09
EN: chances are they could get out with a profit on their lower entry
ZH: 他们加仓的部分能够赚钱，初始仓位可以打平离场
12:07 - 12:09
EN: and get out breakeven on their first entry.
ZH: 他们加仓的部分能够赚钱，初始仓位可以打平离场
12:09 - 12:15
EN: The point is, when the breakout is above the bars to the left,
ZH: 关键是，如果（大幅）突破左边的K线，形成趋势的概率就更高
12:13 - 12:15
EN: higher chance of being a trend.
ZH: 关键是，如果（大幅）突破左边的K线，形成趋势的概率就更高
12:15 - 12:19
EN: When it’s a strong breakout but not above the bars to the left,
ZH: 当强势的上涨没有高于左边的高点
12:19 - 12:24
EN: higher probability it’ll be a bull leg in what
ZH: 那么它更有可能会变成震荡区间，而不是进入上涨趋势
12:21 - 12:24
EN: will become a Trading Range and not the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 那么它更有可能会变成震荡区间，而不是进入上涨趋势
12:28 - 12:32
EN: I mentioned a moment ago confusion
ZH: 刚才提到，感到困惑是震荡区间的特征之一
Slide 007
Time: 12:30
Bilingual Transcript
12:30 - 12:32
EN: as being one of the hallmarks of a Trading Range.
ZH: 刚才提到，感到困惑是震荡区间的特征之一
12:36 - 12:38
EN: Strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势的空头突破
12:38 - 12:41
EN: We have 5 consecutive bear bars, 3 of them good size bodies,
ZH: 连续5根阴线，其中3根体积较大
12:41 - 12:50
EN: all 5 closing below their midpoints, and therefore you have to be thinking
ZH: 5根阴线全都收在一半以下， 所以必须考虑下降趋势的可能性
12:46 - 12:50
EN: that it could be the possible start of a bear trend
ZH: 5根阴线全都收在一半以下， 所以必须考虑下降趋势的可能性
12:50 - 12:54
EN: - or it could simply be a bear leg that could end up as a Trading Range.
ZH: 或者，也可能最终变成震荡区间
12:54 - 12:58
EN: It’s unlikely to immediately reverse up into a bull trend.
ZH: 但不太可能立刻反转成为上涨趋势
12:58 - 13:05
EN: When it’s strongly down like this, the odds are it’s either the start
ZH: 这么强势的下跌，大概率要么是下降趋势，要么是震荡区间
13:02 - 13:05
EN: of a bear trend or the start of a Trading Range.
ZH: 这么强势的下跌，大概率要么是下降趋势，要么是震荡区间
13:05 - 13:09
EN: In either case, bears will sell the first rally.
ZH: 无论哪种情况，空头都会在第1次反转上涨时卖出做空
13:09 - 13:11
EN: If it’s a trend, the pullback will be small.
ZH: 如果真的是下降趋势，那么反弹幅度会很小
13:11 - 13:16
EN: If the pullback is deep and retraces most of this,
ZH: 如果大幅反弹，那么可能正在形成震荡区间
13:14 - 13:16
EN: then we’re probably forming a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果大幅反弹，那么可能正在形成震荡区间
13:20 - 13:22
EN: Beginners will look at this
ZH: 新手看到这样的行情
13:22 - 13:25
EN: and they’ll only consider one possibility: bear trend.
ZH: 他们只能想到一种可能性：下降趋势
13:25 - 13:27
EN: But that’s not the only possibility.
ZH: 但那不是唯一的可能性
13:27 - 13:35
EN: Realistically, a strong selloff like this is either the start
ZH: 实际上，这么强势的抛售， 要么是下降趋势，要么会变成震荡区间
13:31 - 13:35
EN: of a bear trend or a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 实际上，这么强势的抛售， 要么是下降趋势，要么会变成震荡区间
13:39 - 13:43
EN: Traders know that nothing is 100%, and even when they see
ZH: 交易者知道没有什么是百分之百确定的
13:43 - 13:50
EN: a strong selloff like this, there’s probably only a 60% chance
ZH: 即使是这么强势的抛售， 变成下降趋势并跌到MM目标位的概率也只是60%
13:47 - 13:50
EN: it’s going to lead to a Measured Move down and a trend,
ZH: 即使是这么强势的抛售， 变成下降趋势并跌到MM目标位的概率也只是60%
13:50 - 13:53
EN: and there’s a 40% chance that it will not
ZH: 有40%的概率它不是趋势
13:53 - 13:57
EN: - that it will reverse up and most likely become a Trading Range.
ZH: ——而是反转上涨，变成震荡区间
13:57 - 14:03
EN: It could reverse up into a bull trend, but when it’s this strongly down,
ZH: 也有可能反转成为上涨趋势， 但在这么强的下跌之后，通常第一次上涨只是小反转
14:00 - 14:03
EN: usually the first reversal up is minor
ZH: 也有可能反转成为上涨趋势， 但在这么强的下跌之后，通常第一次上涨只是小反转
14:03 - 14:05
EN: and you get a Trading Range instead of a bull trend.
ZH: 要先变成震荡区间，而不是直接变成上涨趋势
14:07 - 14:08
EN: Now we have a reversal.
ZH: 价格反转上涨
14:08 - 14:11
EN: We have 4 bull bars, all closing above their midpoints,
ZH: 连续4根阳线，全都收在一半以上
14:11 - 14:16
EN: 3 closing on their highs, undoing much of the bearishness
ZH: 其中3根收在最高，修复了之前大部分的跌幅
14:15 - 14:16
EN: that we have right here.
ZH: 其中3根收在最高，修复了之前大部分的跌幅
14:21 - 14:23
EN: Look to the left.
ZH: 看左边
14:23 - 14:28
EN: It’s still below this high, so this could very well be
ZH: 目前还没有突破这个高点， 所以现在只能判断它是震荡区间中的上涨
14:27 - 14:28
EN: a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 目前还没有突破这个高点， 所以现在只能判断它是震荡区间中的上涨
14:28 - 14:33
EN: Strong enough reversal up, probably if we reverse down bulls
ZH: 上涨足够强势，所以就算再次下跌
14:33 - 14:35
EN: will buy it and we’ll test back up here again.
ZH: 多头还会买入，让价格涨回到这里
14:41 - 14:44
EN: Big down, big up creates big confusion.
ZH: 大跌、大涨，造成大的困惑
14:44 - 14:47
EN: Big confusion usually results in a Trading Range.
ZH: 困惑通常会让市场进入震荡区间
14:47 - 14:51
EN: You have disappointed bears who are disappointed by seeing this,
ZH: 空头看到这么大幅的反弹，感到很失望
14:51 - 14:53
EN: and you might get disappointed bulls.
ZH: 多头接下来也有可能会失望
14:53 - 14:56
EN: Disappointment is one of the hallmarks of a Trading Range;
ZH: 失望也是震荡区间的特征之一
14:56 - 14:58
EN: the other is confusion and by disappointment.
ZH: 另一个特征是困惑
14:58 - 15:01
EN: This is an example of disappointment.
ZH: 这是空头感到失望的案例
15:01 - 15:02
EN: The bears think they’re going to get a bear trend
ZH: 他们以为要进入下降趋势了
15:02 - 15:04
EN: and then they get a big reversal up.
ZH: 结果却大幅反转上涨
15:04 - 15:06
EN: Some bulls think it’s going to be a bull trend,
ZH: 现在，一些多头认为这会是上涨趋势
15:06 - 15:09
EN: but if it’s a Trading Range, they’ll soon be disappointed.
ZH: 但如果是震荡区间，他们很快就会感到失望
Slide 008
Time: 15:15
Bilingual Transcript
15:16 - 15:22
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, you never know where the bottom
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，你永远不知道底部和顶部到底在哪里， 直到价格强势地反转
15:19 - 15:22
EN: or top is until after there’s a pretty strong reversal.
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，你永远不知道底部和顶部到底在哪里， 直到价格强势地反转
15:23 - 15:26
EN: At this moment, this is a pretty good candidate for the bottom,
ZH: 此时，这个低点很可能就是区间的底部
15:26 - 15:30
EN: and after this strong selloff, this is a pretty good candidate for the top.
ZH: 同时，因为这段强势的下跌，它很可能就是区间的顶部
15:30 - 15:40
EN: But Trading Ranges constantly break above prior highs,
ZH: 但震荡区间经常会略微突破前期的高点，甚至是这种重要的高点； 也经常略微跌破前期重要的低点，然后很快反转
15:34 - 15:40
EN: even major highs like this, and they constantly break below lows,
ZH: 但震荡区间经常会略微突破前期的高点，甚至是这种重要的高点； 也经常略微跌破前期重要的低点，然后很快反转
15:38 - 15:40
EN: even a major low like this, and then reverse.
ZH: 但震荡区间经常会略微突破前期的高点，甚至是这种重要的高点； 也经常略微跌破前期重要的低点，然后很快反转
15:41 - 15:42
EN: Markets have inertia.
ZH: 市场具有惯性
15:42 - 15:47
EN: Remember my inertia rule: 80% of the time when the market’s trying to break out
ZH: 我的惯性法则是：当市场尝试突破进入趋势时，
15:47 - 15:55
EN: into a trend, it’s going to fail and it will reverse,
ZH: 不管上涨或下跌看起来有多么强势，80%的尝试都会失败
15:51 - 15:55
EN: even if the leg down or the leg up is strong.
ZH: 不管上涨或下跌看起来有多么强势，80%的尝试都会失败
16:00 - 16:06
EN: If traders think it’s a Trading Range – and after big down, big up,
ZH: 如果在大跌、大涨之后，交易者认为这很可能是震荡区间，
16:04 - 16:16
EN: they are thinking Trading Range – they’ll start to look to sell near the top
ZH: 如果在大跌、大涨之后，交易者认为这很可能是震荡区间， 他们会开始考虑在高位做空，押注不会有上涨趋势， 也会在低位做多，押注不会变成下降趋势
16:08 - 16:16
EN: and scale in higher, betting against a bull trend, and they’ll look to buy
ZH: 他们会开始考虑在高位做空，押注不会有上涨趋势， 也会在低位做多，押注不会变成下降趋势
16:12 - 16:16
EN: near the bottom and scale in lower, betting against a bear trend.
ZH: 他们会开始考虑在高位做空，押注不会有上涨趋势， 也会在低位做多，押注不会变成下降趋势
16:17 - 16:22
EN: They’ll take quick profits because buying down here,
ZH: 在低位买入之后，他们会快速止盈， 因为他们不认为上涨会持续很久
16:20 - 16:22
EN: they’re not expecting a bull trend.
ZH: 在低位买入之后，他们会快速止盈， 因为他们不认为上涨会持续很久
16:22 - 16:24
EN: They’re expecting a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们预期这只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
16:24 - 16:27
EN: Up here, they’re going to take quick profits as well
ZH: 高位做空之后，他们也会快速止盈
16:27 - 16:29
EN: because they’re not expecting a bear trend.
ZH: 因为他们不认为会有大的下降趋势
16:29 - 16:33
EN: They’re expecting a selloff that will be a bear leg in the Trading Range.
ZH: 他们预期这只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
Slide 009
Time: 16:35
Bilingual Transcript
16:35 - 16:39
EN: The bears have a small second leg down here, a better second leg down here.
ZH: 第1段下跌之后，这里有一个小的第2段下跌； 也可以说这是更大的第2段下跌
16:40 - 16:43
EN: They were expecting a second leg down after such a strong selloff,
ZH: 空头认为，在这么大的抛售之后，应该会有第2段下跌
16:43 - 16:47
EN: but the bulls are expecting a second leg up after such a strong rally.
ZH: 然而，多头看到这么强势的反弹，认为会有第2段上涨
16:47 - 16:50
EN: Remember, Trading Ranges often have two-legged moves
ZH: 要知道，震荡区间中经常有两段式的移动
16:50 - 16:56
EN: - one, pullback, two, one, pullback, two – and after such a strong rally,
ZH: ——1，回调，2； 1，反弹，2 在这么强势的上涨之后，大概率会回测这个高点
16:54 - 16:56
EN: chances are we’re going to test back up.
ZH: 在这么强势的上涨之后，大概率会回测这个高点
16:56 - 17:00
EN: This might be the test up, but this is strong enough
ZH: 也许这就是第2段上涨，但因为它足够强势
17:00 - 17:03
EN: so that we’re probably going to come up to this high close area.
ZH: 所以大概率会涨回到这个收盘价附近
17:08 - 17:10
EN: Consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 连续两根阴线
17:10 - 17:11
EN: Maybe it’s a bear trend again.
ZH: 也许下降趋势恢复了？
17:11 - 17:12
EN: It’s not.
ZH: 没有！
17:12 - 17:14
EN: You see this and you thought it was a bear trend.
ZH: 之前看到这个，你觉得是下降趋势
17:14 - 17:15
EN: You were disappointed.
ZH: 但后来感到失望
17:15 - 17:18
EN: You see this, you think it was a bull trend, and now you’re disappointed.
ZH: 看到这个，你觉得是上涨趋势，再次失望
17:18 - 17:20
EN: Now you’re seeing bear bars again.
ZH: 现在你又看到了阴线下跌
17:20 - 17:23
EN: Well, we have big down, big up, big confusion.
ZH: 左边是大跌、大涨，造成大的困惑
17:23 - 17:27
EN: We’re probably in a Trading Range, and therefore,
ZH: 市场大概率正处于震荡区间
17:27 - 17:30
EN: while this might be a Measuring Gap – this close is below that low
ZH: 虽然这可能是一个测量型缺口——它的收盘价低于那个低点
17:30 - 17:36
EN: and we might get a Measured Move down based upon the height
ZH: 可能会跌到MM目标位——把这个小区间的高度往下翻一倍； 但这个缺口大概率会被补掉
17:32 - 17:36
EN: of this small Trading Range – more likely the gap will close
ZH: 可能会跌到MM目标位——把这个小区间的高度往下翻一倍； 但这个缺口大概率会被补掉
17:36 - 17:40
EN: and this will end up as a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终这段下跌只是震荡区间的一部分而已
17:44 - 17:47
EN: Gap between this close and that low.
ZH: 这个收盘价和那个低点之间有缺口
17:47 - 17:50
EN: It might lead to a Measured Move down from this high to that low,
ZH: 可能会跌到MM目标位——从这个高点到那个低点，往下翻一倍
17:56 - 18:00
EN: but more likely it’s a two-legged move down in a Trading Range.
ZH: 但它更有可能只是震荡区间中的两段式下跌
18:00 - 18:06
EN: Skilled traders will look at that and say, we got a bear bar, but a bull bar.
ZH: 专业的交易者看到这个——阴线，阳线；阴线，阳线
18:04 - 18:06
EN: We have a bear bar, but a bull bar.
ZH: 专业的交易者看到这个——阴线，阳线；阴线，阳线
18:06 - 18:08
EN: The follow-through after the bear bars is bad.
ZH: 阴线之后的跟随很糟糕
18:08 - 18:11
EN: We have a big tail on the bottom of this bull bar.
ZH: 而且这根阴线的下影线很长
18:11 - 18:13
EN: The bear bar here is shrinking compared to that bar.
ZH: 相比前一根阴线，它的体积在萎缩
18:13 - 18:17
EN: We’re in an area where the bulls bought strongly twice – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 在这个区域，之前多头两次大量买入——1，回调，2
18:17 - 18:21
EN: This is probably more likely a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以这大概率只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
18:24 - 18:25
EN: The bulls will be looking to buy.
ZH: 多头会买入
18:25 - 18:28
EN: They’ll buy this close, they’ll buy at that low,
ZH: 多头会在它的收盘买入，会在那个低点挂限价买单
18:28 - 18:31
EN: and they’ll certainly buy the reversal up
ZH: 肯定也会在反转上涨时用突破单买入
18:31 - 18:35
EN: - and they’ll be scalping, because they’re not expecting a bull trend.
ZH: 而且赚了就跑，因为多头不期待会有上涨趋势
18:35 - 18:39
EN: They’re expecting that any rally will not go very far
ZH: 他们预期不会有很大的涨幅，市场会继续横盘震荡
18:37 - 18:39
EN: and that the market will continue sideways.
ZH: 他们预期不会有很大的涨幅，市场会继续横盘震荡
18:43 - 18:45
EN: Double Bottom Higher Low.
ZH: 双底，高于最低点
Slide 010
Time: 18:45
Bilingual Transcript
18:45 - 18:48
EN: You can call it a bear trend, bull breakout,
ZH: 你可以说，这是下降趋势，强势突破趋势线
18:48 - 18:50
EN: Double Bottom, Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 双底，低点抬高的大反转
18:51 - 18:57
EN: But only 40% of Major Trend Reversals actually lead to a Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 但只有40%的大反转机会能真正成功——变成上涨趋势
18:55 - 18:57
EN: into an opposite trend, a bull trend.
ZH: 但只有40%的大反转机会能真正成功——变成上涨趋势
18:57 - 19:01
EN: More likely this rally is a two-legged move up in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这更有可能只是震荡区间中的两段式上涨
19:01 - 19:03
EN: A lot of times the legs are nested.
ZH: 很多时候波段是嵌套的
19:03 - 19:07
EN: Two legs up – one, pullback, two – two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2； 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
19:07 - 19:09
EN: The first leg subdivided into two legs.
ZH: 第1段下跌可以细分成两段
19:09 - 19:14
EN: The second leg subdivided into a Wedge – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 第2段下跌可以细分成3推楔形底—— 1，反弹；2，反弹；3
19:15 - 19:18
EN: This might be simply two legs up in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这可能只是震荡区间中的两段上涨
19:18 - 19:20
EN: This could be a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 可能是第2段陷阱
19:20 - 19:30
EN: It’s very common in a Trading Range to get a second leg
ZH: 震荡区间中，经常会出现非常强势的第2段上涨， 让人感觉会进入上涨趋势、涨到MM目标位，但很快就反转下跌了
19:23 - 19:30
EN: that is especially strong, making traders believe it’ll be a Measuring Gap
ZH: 震荡区间中，经常会出现非常强势的第2段上涨， 让人感觉会进入上涨趋势、涨到MM目标位，但很快就反转下跌了
19:27 - 19:30
EN: and the start of a bull trend, and then it simply reverses.
ZH: 震荡区间中，经常会出现非常强势的第2段上涨， 让人感觉会进入上涨趋势、涨到MM目标位，但很快就反转下跌了
19:30 - 19:38
EN: You’ll also get 2nd Leg Traps near the bottom, trapping beginners into thinking
ZH: 也会有第2段下跌陷阱，让新手以为会向下跌破区间，
19:35 - 19:38
EN: that the Trading Range is going to break to the down side,
ZH: 也会有第2段下跌陷阱，让新手以为会向下跌破区间，
19:38 - 19:41
EN: and that strong second leg reverses back up.
ZH: 但很快就反转上涨
19:47 - 19:53
EN: 5 consecutive bull bars, 4 of them closing
ZH: 连续5根阳线，其中4根收在一半以上，两根阳线收在最高
19:50 - 19:53
EN: above their midpoints, 2 closing on their highs.
ZH: 连续5根阳线，其中4根收在一半以上，两根阳线收在最高
19:53 - 19:55
EN: Beginners see this as a breakout.
ZH: 新手认为这是突破
19:55 - 20:00
EN: Just like the bears thought that this bear bar
ZH: 就像之前他们认为这根K线能成功地跌破前期低点
19:57 - 20:00
EN: was going to successfully break out below this low,
ZH: 就像之前他们认为这根K线能成功地跌破前期低点
20:00 - 20:10
EN: beginning bulls think that this bar is going to remain a breakout
ZH: 现在他们认为这根阳线能成功地突破前期高点， 这根阳线能让价格维持在这个高点的上方
20:05 - 20:10
EN: above this high, and this close is going to remain above that high.
ZH: 现在他们认为这根阳线能成功地突破前期高点， 这根阳线能让价格维持在这个高点的上方
20:10 - 20:11
EN: But look to the left.
ZH: 但是看左边
20:11 - 20:15
EN: We’re still below the top of the bear leg, and this could be simply
ZH: 价格仍然低于这个起跌点，
20:15 - 20:19
EN: a big two-legged move up – one, pullback, and two
ZH: 所以可能只是大的两段式上涨结构——1，回调，2
20:19 - 20:22
EN: - where the pullback subdivided and the rally subdivided.
ZH: 回调和上涨都能细分成更多段
20:22 - 20:25
EN: It’s not clearly bullish yet.
ZH: 还不是明显的上涨趋势
20:25 - 20:28
EN: It’s still more likely a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 更有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
20:28 - 20:30
EN: and therefore bears will look to sell
ZH: 因此空头会找机会做空
20:30 - 20:33
EN: and bulls will look to sell out of their longs to take profits.
ZH: 多头会利用这样的大阳线来止盈
20:38 - 20:41
EN: Two legs up, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段式上涨——1，回调，2
20:41 - 20:43
EN: Two legs down, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
20:43 - 20:45
EN: Two legs up, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段式上涨——1，回调，2
20:45 - 20:47
EN: Probable 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 有可能是第2段陷阱
20:47 - 20:56
EN: I’ll talk about that later, where you have a very strong
ZH: 之后会讲到，这样强势的第2段上涨诱使交易者相信市场进入了上涨趋势， 诱使多头追涨在高位
20:50 - 20:56
EN: 2nd Leg Trapping traders into thinking the market is turning
ZH: 之后会讲到，这样强势的第2段上涨诱使交易者相信市场进入了上涨趋势， 诱使多头追涨在高位
20:53 - 20:56
EN: into a trend, but it traps bulls into buying high.
ZH: 之后会讲到，这样强势的第2段上涨诱使交易者相信市场进入了上涨趋势， 诱使多头追涨在高位
20:56 - 21:00
EN: You get 2nd Leg Traps at the bottom, trapping bears into selling low.
ZH: 区间底部的第2段下跌诱使空头卖在最低点
21:00 - 21:03
EN: Trading Ranges disappoint traders.
ZH: 震荡区间让交易者失望
21:03 - 21:10
EN: Chances are the bulls will be disappointed
ZH: 多头大概率会失望，并且反转下跌——就像这样
21:05 - 21:10
EN: and we’ll get a reversal – which we did.
ZH: 多头大概率会失望，并且反转下跌——就像这样
Slide 011
Time: 21:15
Bilingual Transcript
21:17 - 21:22
EN: A very Tight Channel lasting 8 bars, 4 with pretty good bear bodies,
ZH: 很窄的下降通道，持续了8根K线，其中4根阴线的体积很大
21:22 - 21:24
EN: and 7 bars without a bull body.
ZH: 连续7根K线不是阳线
21:24 - 21:28
EN: Beginners see that as what they hope is the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 新手以为这是下降趋势的开始
21:29 - 21:35
EN: A big Low 2 rally – one, pullback, two – so the bears are hoping
ZH: 空头把它看作是大的低2熊旗（注：即两段反弹） 1，反弹，2
21:35 - 21:38
EN: this is a big bear flag after this initial selloff,
ZH: 空头认为这都是这段下跌之后的熊旗
21:38 - 21:41
EN: and they’re hoping to get trend resumption down.
ZH: 他们希望下降趋势恢复
21:46 - 21:51
EN: Experienced traders know that bear legs accelerate near the bottom
ZH: 经验丰富的交易者知道，价格往往会加速跌到区间底部
21:51 - 21:54
EN: and the bear leg looks strongest near the bottom of the range,
ZH: 下跌波段在区间底部看上去最强势
21:54 - 21:57
EN: and the bull legs often look strongest near the top of the range,
ZH: 上涨波段在区间顶部看上去最强势
21:57 - 21:59
EN: yet Trading Ranges have inertia.
ZH: 但震荡区间具有惯性
21:59 - 22:02
EN: 80% of the breakout attempts will fail.
ZH: 80%突破的尝试会失败
22:02 - 22:04
EN: We tried to get a bear breakout.
ZH: 尝试向下跌破
22:04 - 22:04
EN: It failed.
ZH: 失败了
22:04 - 22:07
EN: A bull breakout, a bear breakout, a bear breakout,
ZH: 尝试向上突破，向下突破，向下突破
22:07 - 22:09
EN: a bull breakout, a bear breakout.
ZH: 向上突破，向下突破
22:09 - 22:14
EN: It’s better to bet on reversals than bet on successful breakouts.
ZH: 与其押注突破成功，不如押注价格会反转
22:16 - 22:21
EN: Two small legs down – one and then a High 1 and then a High 2.
ZH: 两段小的下跌——1，这里是高1，然后这里是高2
22:21 - 22:24
EN: A Double Bottom bull flag and a rally,
ZH: 双底牛旗，反转上涨
22:24 - 22:27
EN: a Small Pullback Bull Trend for the rest of the day.
ZH: 回调很小的上涨趋势，一直涨到收盘
22:27 - 22:32
EN: But it’s still in the Trading Range, and therefore bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 但目前仍然处于震荡区间； 它是区间内的上涨波段
22:32 - 22:34
EN: bear leg in a Trading Range, not the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 然后区间内的下跌波段，而不是下降趋势的开始
22:34 - 22:36
EN: and bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 它也是区间内的上涨波段
Slide 012
Time: 22:40
Bilingual Transcript
22:44 - 22:48
EN: In Trading Ranges, as I said, traders are constantly disappointed,
ZH: 刚才说过，在震荡区间里，交易者一直感到失望
22:48 - 22:52
EN: and sometimes you’ll get good-looking setups and they just don’t seem to work,
ZH: 有时候会出现看起来很好的机会，但就是赚不到大的波段
22:52 - 22:56
EN: and that means that the probability is never quite as high as you want.
ZH: 这意味着胜率并没有你想象的那么高
22:56 - 23:00
EN: Bad setups seem to work pretty well when you think,
ZH: 同时，看上去很糟糕的机会，却经常能赚钱
23:00 - 23:05
EN: “gosh, they shouldn’t work at all.” They’re low probability bets,
ZH: 你心想：“啊？这就直接反转了？” 原本是低胜率的机会，但在震荡区间中却经常能成功
23:03 - 23:05
EN: but they work much more often than you think.
ZH: 你心想：“啊？这就直接反转了？” 原本是低胜率的机会，但在震荡区间中却经常能成功
23:05 - 23:13
EN: So, there are very few really high probability setups
ZH: 所以，震荡区间中的交易机会，胜率不会太高，也不会太低
23:10 - 23:13
EN: and very few really low probability setups.
ZH: 所以，震荡区间中的交易机会，胜率不会太高，也不会太低
23:13 - 23:18
EN: The probabilities tend to hover closer to 50% instead of 40% and 60%.
ZH: 概率往往更接近于50%，而不是40%和60%
23:18 - 23:20
EN: It generates confusion.
ZH: 震荡区间会造成困惑
23:26 - 23:29
EN: 5 consecutive bear bars and a doji bar.
ZH: 连续5根阴线，然后一个十字星
23:29 - 23:32
EN: You think, “well that’s a bad looking buy.” Well, it’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 你心想：“这不是一个好的买入点” 然而，这是震荡区间
23:32 - 23:37
EN: You don’t know that at this moment, but if ever you see bad looking buy signals
ZH: 尽管此时你还不知道它是区间， 但如果你看到这么烂的做多信号，
23:37 - 23:41
EN: lead to profitable trades or bad looking sell signals lead to profitable trades,
ZH: 或者很烂的做空信号，都能够赚钱
23:42 - 23:46
EN: then you’re having low probability trades working pretty well.
ZH: 说明低胜率的交易机会成功了
23:46 - 23:49
EN: You have to assume that the market’s probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么你就必须假设市场很可能处于震荡区间
23:54 - 23:55
EN: The same right there.
ZH: 这里也是一样
23:55 - 24:00
EN: 4 consecutive bull bars, yet we had a swing down lasting more than 20 bars.
ZH: 连续4根阳线，但接着下跌了20根K线
24:05 - 24:09
EN: We have a Double Bottom or a slightly Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里有一个双底，或者说是低点抬高的大反转结构
24:09 - 24:12
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout, Higher Low.
ZH: 下降趋势，突破趋势线，低点抬高
24:12 - 24:14
EN: A High 2 buy, good-looking bull bar.
ZH: 高2做多入场点，信号K线很漂亮
24:15 - 24:16
EN: You think it’s a high probability trade,
ZH: 你感觉在这里做多的胜率很高
24:16 - 24:19
EN: but the market went sideways for about 30 bars.
ZH: 但市场横盘了将近30根K线
24:23 - 24:27
EN: A bull body after 3 bull bars and the market’s trying to turn up.
ZH: 连续3根阳线，市场正在反转上涨
24:27 - 24:30
EN: You wouldn’t think it would lead to much of a selloff,
ZH: 你感觉不会有大幅的下跌
24:30 - 24:33
EN: but we had 2 big bear bars and two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 但接着却出现了两根大阴线——1，反弹，2
24:33 - 24:37
EN: Low probability sell, but it still got two legs down.
ZH: 低胜率的做空机会，但仍然得到了两段下跌
24:37 - 24:44
EN: Low probability events are not as low probability as you think
ZH: 在震荡区间里，原本低概率的事件，现在概率没那么低了
24:41 - 24:44
EN: when the market’s in a Trading Range, and if you see
ZH: 在震荡区间里，原本低概率的事件，现在概率没那么低了
24:44 - 24:47
EN: low probability events being profitable up and down,
ZH: 如果你看到低胜率的做多和做空机会也能赚钱
24:47 - 24:50
EN: that’s a sign that the market is probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 那就是市场处于震荡区间的一个信号
Slide 013
Time: 24:53
Bilingual Transcript
24:53 - 24:56
EN: You’re not going to trade a chart that looks like this.
ZH: 在交易的时候不会看这样的图
24:56 - 24:58
EN: This is 200 or 300 bars.
ZH: 图上有两三百根K线
24:58 - 25:02
EN: You’re only going to be trading a screen that has 100 bars or so.
ZH: 你交易的时候图上有100根K线就足够了
25:02 - 25:07
EN: However, I’m putting all these bars here
ZH: 我在图里放这么多K线，是为了说明支撑和阻力的重要性
25:04 - 25:07
EN: to illustrate a point about support and resistance.
ZH: 我在图里放这么多K线，是为了说明支撑和阻力的重要性
25:12 - 25:16
EN: Prior highs are resistance, and if the market breaks above a prior high,
ZH: 前期的高点是阻力，如果市场突破了一个前期高点
25:16 - 25:18
EN: then that prior high becomes support.
ZH: 那么这个阻力就变成了支撑
25:18 - 25:20
EN: We broke out above these highs and it became support.
ZH: 突破了这两个高点，然后它变成了支撑
25:20 - 25:22
EN: The market reversed up.
ZH: 市场恢复上涨
25:24 - 25:30
EN: When the market reverses down here, at the time you don’t know that
ZH: 市场反转下跌，在这个时候，你还不知道它是阻力 但是在看到反转下跌之后
25:27 - 25:30
EN: that is resistance, but after it has reversed down,
ZH: 市场反转下跌，在这个时候，你还不知道它是阻力 但是在看到反转下跌之后
25:30 - 25:36
EN: you assume that it’s resistance, and if the market
ZH: 可以假设这个价格有阻力，如果市场再度涨到这里， 很可能会再次下跌
25:33 - 25:36
EN: gets up there again, it’ll sell off again.
ZH: 可以假设这个价格有阻力，如果市场再度涨到这里， 很可能会再次下跌
25:36 - 25:38
EN: So prior highs are always resistance.
ZH: 所以，前期的高点经常是阻力
25:39 - 25:41
EN: We tried to rally here.
ZH: 尝试上涨，但下跌了
25:40 - 25:41
EN: We sold off.
ZH: 尝试上涨，但下跌了
25:41 - 25:44
EN: You expect that when we get back there, maybe the bears will win again
ZH: 再次涨到这个价格时，你预期会再次下跌，
25:44 - 25:47
EN: and the bears will win again, and you expect the bears to win again,
ZH: 再次下跌，仍然预期会再次下跌
25:47 - 25:50
EN: but here they didn’t win so well and we went to a new high.
ZH: 但这里没有下跌多少，就向上突破了
25:50 - 25:52
EN: However, the bears won above this high.
ZH: 然而，空头在这个高点再次大量卖出
25:53 - 25:59
EN: Resistance is a force above the current price
ZH: 阻力，就是指现在的价格上方，会有更多人卖出，而不是买入
25:56 - 25:59
EN: where there might be more sellers than buyers.
ZH: 阻力，就是指现在的价格上方，会有更多人卖出，而不是买入
26:05 - 26:06
EN: Support is the opposite.
ZH: 支撑则正好相反
26:06 - 26:09
EN: Support is a level below the current price,
ZH: 支撑，就是指现在的价格下方
26:09 - 26:13
EN: where there probably are going to be more buyers than sellers.
ZH: 大概率有更多人会买入而不是卖出
26:13 - 26:16
EN: Support keeps the market from falling too far,
ZH: 支撑使得市场不会下跌太多
26:16 - 26:18
EN: and it tends to keep the market in a Trading Range.
ZH: 让市场继续在区间里震荡
26:19 - 26:21
EN: A prior low, the market reversed up.
ZH: 前期低点，市场反转上涨
26:21 - 26:23
EN: Broke below this low, reversed up.
ZH: 略微跌破这个低点，反转上涨
26:23 - 26:25
EN: The market reversed up repeatedly here.
ZH: 这里市场多次尝试反转上涨
26:26 - 26:28
EN: When it got down there again, it reversed up.
ZH: 当价格再次跌到这里，又上涨了
26:28 - 26:30
EN: When it got near it again, it reversed up.
ZH: 又跌到这个价格附近，还是反转上涨
26:36 - 26:41
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, the bulls and bears alternate control.
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，多头和空头频繁地交换控制权
26:41 - 26:43
EN: The bulls make money during the bull legs
ZH: 多头在上涨波段期间赚钱
26:43 - 26:46
EN: and the bears make money during the bear legs.
ZH: 空头在下跌波段期间赚钱
Slide 014
Time: 26:50
Bilingual Transcript
26:52 - 26:57
EN: A range is simply a market that’s mostly sideways with repeated reversals.
ZH: 区间的意思，就是指市场基本上都在横盘，并且来回反转
27:05 - 27:11
EN: Usually a Trading Range has at least one bull leg lasting 10 or 20 bars
ZH: 通常震荡区间里至少有一个持续10或20根K线的上涨波段
27:11 - 27:14
EN: or more and one bear leg lasting 10 or 20 bars.
ZH: 以及至少一个持续10或20根K线的下跌波段
27:14 - 27:18
EN: The market’s usually Always In Long and also Always In Short.
ZH: 有时做多更好，有时做空更好
27:18 - 27:22
EN: You get some kind of big up, big down, big confusion appearance to the chart,
ZH: 当你在K线图上看到大涨、大跌的行情，并感到困惑时，
27:22 - 27:25
EN: and you have to assume the market is probably sideways
ZH: 就把你需假设市场大概率会横盘
27:25 - 27:27
EN: - especially when you look at these bars.
ZH: 特别是看这些K线
27:27 - 27:29
EN: It keeps reversing every 2 or 3 bars.
ZH: 每上涨两三根K线就下跌
27:29 - 27:30
EN: It lacks consecutive big bars.
ZH: 没有连续的大阳线
27:30 - 27:32
EN: We have consecutive big bars here,
ZH: 这里有连续的大阳线
27:32 - 27:35
EN: but disappointing and terrible follow-through.
ZH: 但后续的跟随令人失望，非常糟糕
27:37 - 27:43
EN: When you look at a chart and you see a swing up
ZH: 当你看到这样的上涨波段，显然是单边上涨，只能做多
27:40 - 27:43
EN: where the market’s clearly Always In Long,
ZH: 当你看到这样的上涨波段，显然是单边上涨，只能做多
27:43 - 27:45
EN: you see a swing down where it’s clearly Always In Short,
ZH: 但很快变成下跌波段，单边下跌、只能做空
27:45 - 27:48
EN: you have to assume the market’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 你必须假设市场正处于震荡区间
27:49 - 27:56
EN: Usually before you can conclude that the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 通常需要看到两段上涨和两段下跌， 才能得出震荡区间的结论
27:52 - 27:56
EN: you need to see two legs up and two legs down.
ZH: 通常需要看到两段上涨和两段下跌， 才能得出震荡区间的结论
27:56 - 27:58
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
27:58 - 28:01
EN: One – one or one, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，或者1，反弹，2
28:01 - 28:03
EN: So, at this point the market is probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以，此时可以判断市场大概率处于震荡区间
28:03 - 28:05
EN: It’s still possibly a bull trend.
ZH: 仍然有可能是上涨趋势
28:05 - 28:08
EN: It might be forming a Double Bottom and it may rally forever.
ZH: 可能会形成双底，然后一直上涨
28:08 - 28:10
EN: Here, it rallied for 100 bars.
ZH: 这里，市场上涨了约100根K线
28:10 - 28:14
EN: So, it was in a bull trend, and it was also in a bear trend.
ZH: 在这一刻，市场处于上涨趋势，也同时处于下降趋势
28:14 - 28:17
EN: It could’ve sold off forever and this could’ve been the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 有可能会一直下跌，那么它就变成了下降趋势的起跌点
28:17 - 28:19
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 每当市场处于震荡区间时
28:19 - 28:24
EN: it’s also always in a bull trend and always in a bear trend.
ZH: 它总是同时具备上涨趋势和下降趋势的特征
28:24 - 28:27
EN: However, only one side ultimately wins.
ZH: 然而，最终的胜者只有一个
28:27 - 28:29
EN: Here, the bulls won for about 100 bars.
ZH: 这里，多头掌控了大约100根K线
28:36 - 28:41
EN: Once you see two legs up and two legs down – it could be an either/or;
ZH: 一旦你看到两段上涨和两段下跌
28:41 - 28:43
EN: it could be two legs down and then two legs up
ZH: 也可以先是两段下跌，然后再两段上涨
28:43 - 28:49
EN: - you have to assume that the market is more likely
ZH: 你必须假设市场更有可能处于震荡区间， 而不是上涨或下跌通道
28:46 - 28:49
EN: in a Trading Range than in a bull or bear channel.
ZH: 你必须假设市场更有可能处于震荡区间， 而不是上涨或下跌通道
28:52 - 28:55
EN: Two legs up, two legs down.
ZH: 两段上涨，两段下跌
28:55 - 28:58
EN: You have to conclude that we’re now in a Trading Range
ZH: 你必须判断出现在处于震荡区间
28:58 - 29:04
EN: and we’re probably going to go sideways for an indefinite number of bars.
ZH: 大概率会横盘一段时间，10~20根K线，甚至更久
29:02 - 29:04
EN: 10 or 20 bars, maybe more.
ZH: 大概率会横盘一段时间，10~20根K线，甚至更久
29:07 - 29:13
EN: Ultimately the market went sideways for, I don’t know, 250 bars or so.
ZH: 最终市场横盘了大约250根K线——整个屏幕
29:11 - 29:13
EN: The entire screen.
ZH: 最终市场横盘了大约250根K线——整个屏幕
29:16 - 29:24
EN: I mentioned before that when the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 刚才有提到，震荡区间中上涨和下跌的波段， 通常可以细分成两段或三段
29:20 - 29:24
EN: the legs up and down often have subdivisions into two legs or three legs.
ZH: 刚才有提到，震荡区间中上涨和下跌的波段， 通常可以细分成两段或三段
29:25 - 29:31
EN: You can see this first leg up – one, pullback, two
ZH: 比如这里——1，回调，2； 第1段又能细分成1，回调，2；或者看作3推——1，2，3
29:27 - 29:31
EN: - subdivided into one, pullback, two, or into a Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 比如这里——1，回调，2； 第1段又能细分成1，回调，2；或者看作3推——1，2，3
29:35 - 29:37
EN: Two legs down, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
29:38 - 29:41
EN: Two big legs up, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 大的两段上涨——1，回调，2
29:41 - 29:43
EN: This had a subdivision into two legs.
ZH: 它可以细分成两段
29:43 - 29:45
EN: This subdivided into three.
ZH: 它可以细分成三段
29:46 - 29:48
EN: So, this breakout led to a Wedge.
ZH: 所以，这段上涨是3推楔形
29:48 - 29:49
EN: Or you can do it the other way.
ZH: 或者也可以这样数
29:49 - 29:51
EN: This could be a Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 这是3推楔形——1，2，3
29:51 - 29:53
EN: - and then this breakout led to two legs up.
ZH: 后面是两段上涨——1，2
29:54 - 29:59
EN: Two legs up – one, pullback, two
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2
29:59 - 30:02
EN: - and it subdivided into multiple other smaller patterns.
ZH: 第1段中有很多小的结构
30:04 - 30:07
EN: Two legs down – one, pullback, maybe two
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，可能2跌到这里
30:07 - 30:12
EN: - well, two continued down and now it became one, pullback, Wedge.
ZH: 继续下跌，所以变成了1，反弹，楔形底
30:12 - 30:15
EN: So, Spike and Channel bear trend.
ZH: 急速下跌变通道的下降趋势
Slide 015
Time: 30:18
Bilingual Transcript
30:23 - 30:26
EN: You sometimes hear me use the term “fractal.”
ZH: 你有时会听到我说“分形”这个词 （注：几何术语，意思是大结构中有相似的小结构）
30:26 - 30:34
EN: Markets are fractal, and by that what I mean is that any pattern
ZH: 市场具有分形，任何结构通常都能细分成更小的相似结构
30:30 - 30:34
EN: that you see often subdivides into smaller similar patterns.
ZH: 市场具有分形，任何结构通常都能细分成更小的相似结构
30:39 - 30:43
EN: A Trading Range subdivides into lots of smaller Trading Ranges.
ZH: 震荡区间里有许多更小的震荡区间
30:46 - 30:51
EN: This is a Trading Range, this is a Trading Range, and this is a Trading Range,
ZH: 这是震荡区间，这是震荡区间，这也是震荡区间
30:51 - 30:54
EN: and within them there are smaller Trading Ranges as well.
ZH: 在它们内部，也有更小的震荡区间
31:01 - 31:08
EN: Inside Trading Ranges, you frequently see doji bars
ZH: 在震荡区间中，你经常能看到十字星—— 收盘在中间，上下影线很长
31:04 - 31:08
EN: - bars that close near their middle and have prominent tails.
ZH: 在震荡区间中，你经常能看到十字星—— 收盘在中间，上下影线很长
31:09 - 31:17
EN: A single doji bar is a 1-bar Trading Range, and if you were to look
ZH: 十字星本身就是一个震荡区间，如果从更小的时间周期去看， 你可以看到它是震荡区间
31:14 - 31:17
EN: at a smaller timeframe chart, you would see that it’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 十字星本身就是一个震荡区间，如果从更小的时间周期去看， 你可以看到它是震荡区间
31:17 - 31:19
EN: For example, this bull doji.
ZH: 比如，这个多头十字星
31:19 - 31:21
EN: The market went down and it went up.
ZH: 市场先下跌，再上涨
31:21 - 31:23
EN: Like this, down and up.
ZH: 就像这样，下跌，上涨
31:24 - 31:27
EN: Big down, big up usually results in a Trading Range,
ZH: 大跌、大涨，通常会导致震荡区间
31:27 - 31:30
EN: and therefore when you see a lot of dojis on the chart,
ZH: 所以，如果你在K线图上看到很多十字星
31:30 - 31:33
EN: you’re probably going to be mostly in a sideways market.
ZH: 说明现在市场很可能在横盘
Slide 016
Time: 31:35
Bilingual Transcript
31:40 - 31:45
EN: Traders are always looking for signs of whether
ZH: 交易者总是在寻找市场是否处于趋势或震荡区间的信号
31:42 - 31:45
EN: or not the market is in a trend or in a Trading Range.
ZH: 交易者总是在寻找市场是否处于趋势或震荡区间的信号
31:46 - 31:48
EN: When I think the market might be in a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果我认为市场可能处于震荡区间，
31:48 - 31:51
EN: I’m looking for evidence that it probably is.
ZH: 那我就会去寻找证据
31:57 - 32:01
EN: Very often as soon as the day begins or the session begins,
ZH: 通常，在一天或一个时段的开盘
32:01 - 32:04
EN: you can tell from the first bar that a Trading Range is likely.
ZH: 可以从第1根K线看出震荡区间的可能性
32:10 - 32:13
EN: If you start seeing early signs of a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果开始看到震荡区间早期的信号
32:13 - 32:17
EN: traders will begin to trade it like a Trading Range rather than like a trend.
ZH: 交易者就会开始按照区间来交易，而不是趋势
32:18 - 32:19
EN: Here’s the start of a day.
ZH: 这是今天的开盘
32:19 - 32:22
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion.
ZH: 大涨，大跌，令人困惑
32:22 - 32:23
EN: Big up again.
ZH: 再次大涨
32:23 - 32:25
EN: Probably going to be a Trading Range.
ZH: 大概率是震荡区间
32:25 - 32:29
EN: Here we have a breakout of a channel with lots of reversals.
ZH: 高开，尝试加速突破这个弱上涨通道，失败
32:30 - 32:35
EN: Instead of consecutive bear bars, we have a bear bar
ZH: 并没有连续的大阴线，而是一根阴线，一根阳线，影线很长
32:33 - 32:35
EN: and a bull bar and prominent tails.
ZH: 并没有连续的大阴线，而是一根阴线，一根阳线，影线很长
32:35 - 32:37
EN: A couple bear bars, good bull bar.
ZH: 两根阴线，一根大阳线
32:37 - 32:41
EN: Increases the chances that today is going
ZH: 增加了今天会有很多震荡的价格行为的可能性
32:39 - 32:41
EN: to have a lot of Trading Range price action.
ZH: 增加了今天会有很多震荡的价格行为的可能性
32:50 - 32:56
EN: Everybody knows that a Trading Range will eventually evolve
ZH: 每个人都知道，震荡区间最终会进入趋势——会突破
32:54 - 32:56
EN: into a trend, that there’ll be a breakout.
ZH: 每个人都知道，震荡区间最终会进入趋势——会突破
32:57 - 33:10
EN: However, they also know that while it’s in a Trading Range
ZH: 但他们也知道，在明确地进入趋势之前， 按照震荡区间去交易、押注突破失败，
33:00 - 33:10
EN: and until it clearly has broken out into a trend,
ZH: 但他们也知道，在明确地进入趋势之前， 按照震荡区间去交易、押注突破失败，
33:04 - 33:10
EN: traders can make much more money trading it like a Trading Range,
ZH: 但他们也知道，在明确地进入趋势之前， 按照震荡区间去交易、押注突破失败，
33:08 - 33:10
EN: betting against successful breakouts
ZH: 但他们也知道，在明确地进入趋势之前， 按照震荡区间去交易、押注突破失败，
33:10 - 33:13
EN: - knowing that eventually they’ll probably lose.
ZH: ——尽管最后一笔交易可能会亏钱
33:13 - 33:17
EN: Eventually one of their times when they sell at the top or buy at the bottom,
ZH: 最终，当他们在底部做多，或顶部做空时
33:17 - 33:19
EN: there’ll be a successful breakout into a trend.
ZH: 市场突破进入突破
33:19 - 33:27
EN: So, if they buy at the bottom, it’ll end up breaking
ZH: 比如，他们在底部买入，但价格向下跌破进入下降趋势； 或者在顶部卖空，价格向上突破进入上涨趋势
33:22 - 33:27
EN: into a bear trend eventually, or if they sell at the top,
ZH: 比如，他们在底部买入，但价格向下跌破进入下降趋势； 或者在顶部卖空，价格向上突破进入上涨趋势
33:24 - 33:27
EN: eventually it’ll break out into a bull trend.
ZH: 比如，他们在底部买入，但价格向下跌破进入下降趋势； 或者在顶部卖空，价格向上突破进入上涨趋势
33:27 - 33:33
EN: But they’ll make enough money on all the prior trades
ZH: 但在之前的交易中，他们赚了足够多的钱， 远远大于最后一笔交易的亏损，所以总体仍然是盈利的
33:30 - 33:33
EN: to offset the final loss, if they even get the final loss.
ZH: 但在之前的交易中，他们赚了足够多的钱， 远远大于最后一笔交易的亏损，所以总体仍然是盈利的
33:34 - 33:40
EN: A lot of traders won’t take that last trade because there’ll be signs
ZH: 很多交易者能够避开最后那笔亏损的交易， 因为通常都会有信号，暗示市场可能会突破进入趋势
33:37 - 33:40
EN: that the market might be evolving into a trend.
ZH: 很多交易者能够避开最后那笔亏损的交易， 因为通常都会有信号，暗示市场可能会突破进入趋势
Slide 017
Time: 33:45
Bilingual Transcript
33:50 - 33:52
EN: I’m always looking at the bars.
ZH: 我总是在观察K线
33:52 - 33:55
EN: What is the evidence that the market might be in a trend?
ZH: 有没有证据表明市场可能已经进入趋势？
33:56 - 33:59
EN: Well, we have consecutive bear bars, but they’re not particularly big,
ZH: 有连续的阴线，但体积不是特别大
33:59 - 34:02
EN: and if you look to the left, we see multiple reversals.
ZH: 而且看左边，价格一直在反转
34:02 - 34:07
EN: The bodies seem a little bit too small
ZH: K线的体积有点小，不足以改变目前的价格行为
34:04 - 34:07
EN: to change the price action that we’re seeing.
ZH: K线的体积有点小，不足以改变目前的价格行为
34:08 - 34:10
EN: Also, the tails are a little bit prominent.
ZH: 另外，影线有点长
34:10 - 34:12
EN: Tail on top of this bar, tail below that bar.
ZH: 这根K线有上影线，那根K线有下影线
34:12 - 34:15
EN: Here we’re getting a bull reversal, but prominent tails
ZH: 这里价格反转上涨，但是它的上下影线很长
34:15 - 34:18
EN: and the bodies are not all that big.
ZH: 这些阳线的体积也不是很大
34:18 - 34:21
EN: Therefore, this is more likely a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 因此，这更有可能是震荡区间中的上涨波段
34:21 - 34:23
EN: than the start of a strong bull trend.
ZH: 而不是强上涨趋势的开始
34:26 - 34:29
EN: More bars with prominent tails.
ZH: 这些K线都有很长的影线
34:29 - 34:33
EN: We’re trying to get a bull breakout,
ZH: 这里开始反转上涨，但一些阳线的上影线很长
34:30 - 34:33
EN: but several of these bars have tails on top.
ZH: 这里开始反转上涨，但一些阳线的上影线很长
34:33 - 34:35
EN: Here we’re getting a bull breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 大阳线，有跟随
34:35 - 34:40
EN: Tail on top, and we’re not clearly far above the bars to the left.
ZH: 但是有上影线，而且没有大幅突破左边的高点
34:40 - 34:41
EN: The same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
34:41 - 34:44
EN: We’re selling off, but we’re getting tails on the bottom of the bars,
ZH: 市场在下跌，但有一些下影线
34:44 - 34:48
EN: and therefore the selloff is probably not all that strong.
ZH: 因此抛售可能并不那么强势
34:51 - 34:53
EN: A lot of the bars have small bodies.
ZH: 很多K线的体积都很小
34:53 - 34:56
EN: If they’re small enough, you can call them a doji,
ZH: 如果体积非常小，你可以称之为十字星
34:56 - 34:58
EN: or you can simply call them small trend bars.
ZH: 或者说是小的趋势K线
34:58 - 35:06
EN: Instead of consecutive big bars closing on their highs on the legs up
ZH: 没有连续的大阳线收在最高，也没有连续的大阴线收在最低
35:03 - 35:06
EN: or consecutive big bars closing on their lows on the way down,
ZH: 没有连续的大阳线收在最高，也没有连续的大阴线收在最低
35:06 - 35:10
EN: we’ve got a lot of bars with small bodies and prominent tails
ZH: 这些K线的实体部分很小，影线很长
35:10 - 35:14
EN: - evidence that the market’s more likely in a Trading Range.
ZH: ——这些都是市场处于震荡区间的证据
35:19 - 35:20
EN: Lots of Tight Trading Ranges.
ZH: 很多窄震荡区间
35:21 - 35:22
EN: Lots of overlap.
ZH: 很多重叠
35:22 - 35:25
EN: Many reversals in a very small range.
ZH: 在一个非常小的区间内来回反转
35:25 - 35:28
EN: That is further evidence of a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 那也是市场处于窄震荡区间的证据
35:33 - 35:36
EN: I talked about how Trading Ranges can be broad or tight,
ZH: 这节课我讲了震荡区间有宽有窄
Slide 018
Time: 35:35
Bilingual Transcript
35:36 - 35:41
EN: and when they’re broad, traders can buy low, sell high,
ZH: 如果是宽区间，交易者可以低买、高卖、剥头皮， 可以用突破单或限价单入场
35:39 - 35:41
EN: and scalp, and they can enter with stops or limit orders.
ZH: 如果是宽区间，交易者可以低买、高卖、剥头皮， 可以用突破单或限价单入场
35:41 - 35:44
EN: When they’re tight, most traders should not trade,
ZH: 如果是窄区间，大部分交易者就不应该交易了
35:44 - 35:47
EN: but experienced traders will trade them with limit orders.
ZH: 非常有经验的交易员会用限价单剥头皮
35:47 - 35:52
EN: I’m also always looking for early signs
ZH: 我也总是想尽早发现市场进入震荡区间的信号
35:50 - 35:52
EN: that the market might be in a Trading Range.
ZH: 我也总是想尽早发现市场进入震荡区间的信号
35:52 - 35:56
EN: Are there a lot of bars with prominent tails, small bodies?
ZH: 有没有很多小K线、影线很长？
35:56 - 36:01
EN: Is there an absence of consecutive strong trend bars up or down?
ZH: 是否没有连续的大阳线或大阴线？
36:01 - 36:02
EN: Are there a lot of reversals?
ZH: 是否一直来回反转？
36:02 - 36:05
EN: Are there a lot of two-legged moves up and down?
ZH: 有没有很多两段式的上涨和下跌？
36:05 - 36:08
EN: All of that is evidence that the market is probably in a Trading Range,
ZH: 那些都是市场大概率处于震荡区间的证据
36:08 - 36:12
EN: and if it is, I’m going to start trading it as if it’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果我看到这些证据，我就会开始按照震荡区间的方法交易
36:17 - 36:18
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
36:18 - 36:20
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
36:20 - 36:24
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading within Trading Ranges.
ZH: 如何交易震荡区间的第1节课，就先讲到这里