al-brooks-course
40A - Entering Late in Trends
Raw transcript and slide notes for 40A - Entering Late in Trends.
Overview
- Slides: 16
- Transcript segments: 405
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of five videos about entering late in trends.
ZH: 接下来的5节课，我们来讲在趋势后期入场
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: You’ll often hear people talking about a FOMO trade.
ZH: 你经常会听到人们谈论 FOMO交易
00:17 - 00:19
EN: F-O-M-O, fear of missing out.
ZH: FOMO的意思是“害怕错过” （注：Fear of Missing Out的首字母）
00:20 - 00:22
EN: In a bull trend there’s a bull FOMO trade.
ZH: 在上涨趋势中，会有多头的FOMO交易
00:22 - 00:27
EN: Traders are afraid to buy, but they’re afraid not to be long, so they buy small.
ZH: 他们害怕追涨，但又怕错过趋势，所以用很小的仓位买入
00:27 - 00:32
EN: And if everybody buys, the market tends to go up in a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 如果买的人足够多，就会形成回调很小的上涨趋势
00:32 - 00:35
EN: And there’s often a bear FOMO trade as well.
ZH: 也经常会有空头的FOMO交易
00:35 - 00:39
EN: When the market’s going down, everyone’s afraid to miss out,
ZH: 当市场下跌时，空头害怕错过机会
00:39 - 00:42
EN: so everyone tends to trade small, not waiting for pullbacks,
ZH: 所以不等反弹，而是直接用很小的仓位做空，
00:42 - 00:45
EN: and the result is a Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 这就导致了反弹很小的下降趋势
00:49 - 00:51
EN: We have a bull trend in a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后(窄)震荡区间
Slide 002
Time: 00:49
Bilingual Transcript
00:51 - 00:53
EN: a bull trend in a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 右边也是上涨趋势，(窄)进入震荡区间
00:53 - 00:55
EN: What’s going to happen next?
ZH: 接下来会发生什么？
00:59 - 01:02
EN: Well, we pulled back for a couple bars,
ZH: 回调了几根K线
01:02 - 01:05
EN: a little bit of a Buy Climax, Buy Climax, Buy Climax.
ZH: 有一些抢购高潮，抢购高潮，抢购高潮
01:05 - 01:11
EN: It’s reasonable to take that buy with a stop either
ZH: 在这里买入是合理的，止损可以放在最近一段上涨的起涨点下方
01:08 - 01:11
EN: below the bottom of the most recent bull leg or down here.
ZH: 在这里买入是合理的，止损可以放在最近一段上涨的起涨点下方
01:12 - 01:15
EN: And then other traders will buy the close.
ZH: 一些多头会在它的收盘买入
01:15 - 01:17
EN: We have a bull breakout, maybe good bull bar.
ZH: 多头突破，不错的阳线
01:17 - 01:19
EN: Buy the close, buy the close.
ZH: 买收盘，买收盘
01:24 - 01:27
EN: You’ll sometimes hear traders talk about “noise,”
ZH: 你会听到有的人说“噪音”一词
01:28 - 01:31
EN: that the market’s in a Tight Trading Range making lots of reversals
ZH: 意思是市场在一个窄震荡区间中来回反转
01:31 - 01:34
EN: and it’s not tradeable and it’s just noise.
ZH: 因为无法交易，所以这些都是噪音 （思考：没有交易机会，是否等于这些K线就没有任何意义呢？）
01:34 - 01:37
EN: Well, that’s really not what’s going on.
ZH: 实际情况并非如此
01:38 - 01:41
EN: When an experienced trader uses the term “noise,”
ZH: 当一个经验的交易员说“噪音”这个词，
01:41 - 01:43
EN: he’s not meaning something that is random.
ZH: 他的意思不是说这些都是完全随机的
01:43 - 01:48
EN: He’s simply meaning that the movements are too small
ZH: 他只是认为波动太小，不值得去交易 （注：但其中发生了无数笔高频交易，只是不适合手动交易）
01:46 - 01:48
EN: for him to bother to do anything.
ZH: 他只是认为波动太小，不值得去交易 （注：但其中发生了无数笔高频交易，只是不适合手动交易）
01:48 - 01:51
EN: If he’s long, he’s not going to get out if there’s noise.
ZH: 如果他持有多头仓位，他不会因为有噪音而离场
01:51 - 01:54
EN: If he’s looking to buy or looking to sell,
ZH: 如果他在考虑做多还是做空，
01:54 - 01:57
EN: he’s not going to take an entry in the presence of noise.
ZH: 他不会在有噪音的情况下入场
01:57 - 01:59
EN: He’s waiting for something bigger.
ZH: 他在等待更大的机会
01:59 - 02:02
EN: Noise is usually something that’s simply too small to trade.
ZH: 噪音通常是指波动太小而没有交易机会
02:05 - 02:06
EN: You can see what happened.
ZH: 来看后续的行情
02:06 - 02:08
EN: In this case we got trend resumption up,
ZH: 这里趋势继续上涨
02:08 - 02:12
EN: and in this case we got trend reversal down.
ZH: 而这里趋势反转下跌
02:12 - 02:20
EN: And in both situations, the market was telling us something about
ZH: 在这两个案例中，其实市场暗示了后面会发生什么， 所以这些不是噪音，不是随机的
02:15 - 02:20
EN: what is likely to follow, and therefore it’s not noise and it’s not random.
ZH: 在这两个案例中，其实市场暗示了后面会发生什么， 所以这些不是噪音，不是随机的
02:20 - 02:22
EN: It is giving us information.
ZH: 它给我们提供了信息
02:24 - 02:31
EN: I’ll talk about that more in this video,
ZH: 之后我会具体讲解这两者到底有什么区别
02:28 - 02:31
EN: what the differences between this and this
ZH: 之后我会具体讲解这两者到底有什么区别
02:31 - 02:34
EN: - and there are some important differences between the two.
ZH: ——它们有很重要的区别
02:34 - 02:38
EN: If you simply look at both Tight Trading Ranges as noise
ZH: 如果你把这两个窄震荡区间都看作噪音
02:38 - 02:40
EN: and you don’t give them any other thought,
ZH: 不去仔细观察和思考，
02:40 - 02:44
EN: you’re missing clues to what might be following.
ZH: 你就错过了很多线索
02:49 - 02:51
EN: Noise cannot exist.
ZH: 不存在噪音
02:51 - 02:52
EN: It’s not random.
ZH: 它不是随机的
02:52 - 02:57
EN: It simply means that the reversals are smaller than what you care to trade.
ZH: 只不过对你而言波动太小、无法交易
02:58 - 03:03
EN: However, there are computers out there
ZH: 然而有很多电脑程序专门做这样的剥头皮
03:00 - 03:03
EN: who are very comfortable trading those small reversals,
ZH: 然而有很多电脑程序专门做这样的剥头皮
03:03 - 03:06
EN: and they are, and they’re doing it logically, based upon math.
ZH: 他们的算法是有逻辑的，是基于数学的
03:06 - 03:09
EN: And therefore, the events are not random.
ZH: 因此，这些事件并不是随机的
Slide 003
Time: 03:10
Bilingual Transcript
03:12 - 03:15
EN: We have an opening reversal and then a bull trend.
ZH: 开盘反转，然后进入上涨趋势
03:15 - 03:19
EN: We got bull trend, Trading Range, trend resumption up.
ZH: 上涨趋势，震荡区间，趋势继续
03:23 - 03:27
EN: Very easy to not trade the bull trend here or here.
ZH: 这里和这里，很容易错过（注：不敢买）
03:28 - 03:31
EN: If you find yourself missing a lot of bull trends like that,
ZH: 如果你发现自己错过了很多这样的上涨趋势
03:31 - 03:35
EN: it’s probably because you’re afraid that the stop is too far away.
ZH: 可能是因为你害怕止损太大
03:35 - 03:39
EN: You know that no matter where you buy in here, your stop is down here,
ZH: 你知道无论你在哪里买入，你的止损都在这里
03:39 - 03:42
EN: and it might be greater than what you can afford to risk.
ZH: 这可能超出了你能承受的风险范围
03:42 - 03:45
EN: For example, if you bought high up in this bull trend,
ZH: 例如，如果你在这个上涨趋势中追涨
03:45 - 03:50
EN: your stop is 20 points away, and if you have a small account
ZH: 你的止损距离有20个点； 如果你的账户很小，无法承受20个点的风险
03:49 - 03:50
EN: you cannot risk 20 points.
ZH: 你的止损距离有20个点； 如果你的账户很小，无法承受20个点的风险
03:50 - 03:52
EN: That’s $1,000 in the Emini.
ZH: ——标普期货20个点的价值是1000美金
03:52 - 03:54
EN: And the same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
03:54 - 03:57
EN: If you bought anywhere here, your stop is all the way down here
ZH: 不管你在哪里买入，止损都在这里
03:57 - 03:59
EN: - again, possibly as much as 20 points away.
ZH: ——同样，也大约是20个点的距离
04:01 - 04:07
EN: In that kind of a situation, if it is greater risk
ZH: 类似这种行情，如果风险超出了你的承受范围
04:04 - 04:07
EN: than what you’re comfortable undertaking,
ZH: 类似这种行情，如果风险超出了你的承受范围
04:07 - 04:09
EN: then simply don’t take the trade and don’t worry about it.
ZH: 那么就不要交易，也不用纠结
04:21 - 04:29
EN: You’ll sometimes hear traders on television talking
ZH: 有时候你会听到别人说，这样“买收盘”的上涨趋势是FOMO趋势—— 交易者害怕错过
04:24 - 04:29
EN: about a Buy The Close bull trend like this as a FOMO trend,
ZH: 有时候你会听到别人说，这样“买收盘”的上涨趋势是FOMO趋势—— 交易者害怕错过
04:27 - 04:29
EN: a fear of missing out.
ZH: 有时候你会听到别人说，这样“买收盘”的上涨趋势是FOMO趋势—— 交易者害怕错过
04:29 - 04:35
EN: And what happens is the trend enters
ZH: 这里发生的情况是： 趋势进入了一个很窄的上涨通道，回调幅度非常小
04:32 - 04:35
EN: a fairly Tight Bull Channel with very small pullbacks.
ZH: 这里发生的情况是： 趋势进入了一个很窄的上涨通道，回调幅度非常小
04:36 - 04:41
EN: Everyone is fearful of a big reversal, but they’re also more afraid
ZH: 每个人都害怕突然反转下跌，但他们更害怕错过大的行情，
04:41 - 04:45
EN: of missing a big move, so they trade small, use the appropriate stop,
ZH: 所以就用很小的仓位买入，设置正确的止损
04:45 - 04:48
EN: and as the market goes higher they buy more.
ZH: 随着市场继续上涨，他们买入更多
04:48 - 04:51
EN: And the result is the market just keeps going up and up and up.
ZH: 结果造成市场不断上涨
04:51 - 04:56
EN: The traders who are waiting for a pullback sometimes have to wait
ZH: 那些等待回调的交易者，等了很久也没有等到回调
04:54 - 04:56
EN: a lot of bars before they get their pullback.
ZH: 那些等待回调的交易者，等了很久也没有等到回调
Slide 004
Time: 05:00
Bilingual Transcript
05:04 - 05:11
EN: One technique that I use in trading FOMO markets,
ZH: 遇到FOMO行情——遇到像这样几乎没有回调的上涨趋势时， 我使用的方法是：不等待回调
05:07 - 05:11
EN: small pullback markets like this – instead of waiting for the pullback,
ZH: 遇到FOMO行情——遇到像这样几乎没有回调的上涨趋势时， 我使用的方法是：不等待回调
05:11 - 05:13
EN: a lot of times I’ll simply buy the close.
ZH: 而是直接买入阳线的收盘
05:13 - 05:18
EN: Anytime I start to get 3, 4, 5 consecutive bull bars closing near their highs,
ZH: 每当我看到连续3、4、5根阳线收在高位的时候，
05:18 - 05:21
EN: I simply just buy the close, look where the stop has to be,
ZH: 我就直接在它的收盘买入，看看止损应该放在哪里
05:21 - 05:25
EN: and trade small enough so that my risk is not greater than any other trade.
ZH: 用很小的初始仓位买入，确保风险不大于平时的其它交易
05:25 - 05:29
EN: I also sometimes will trade half that size
ZH: 有时我甚至把很小的仓位再减半
05:29 - 05:31
EN: to allow for the market to pull back deeply,
ZH: 以防市场有深度回调
05:31 - 05:35
EN: and then I can buy more and lower my average entry price.
ZH: 这样我就可以买入更多，降低平均入场价格 （注：始终保证总的仓位，即使止损，亏损也不超过账户的1%或2%
05:40 - 05:42
EN: And a lot of traders just keep buying.
ZH: 一些交易者（比如机构或账户较大的个人）的做法是一直买入
05:42 - 05:44
EN: They buy at the market, they buy below bars, they buy bear closes,
ZH: 他们市价买入，在K线下方挂限价买单，在阴线的收盘买入
05:44 - 05:49
EN: they buy above bars, they buy bull closes, and they keep buying
ZH: 在K线上方挂突破买单，在阳线的收盘买入—— 一直买买买
05:49 - 05:57
EN: until the market transitions out of its breakout phase into a channel phase
ZH: 直到市场从突破阶段变成通道阶段，或变成震荡区间， 然后才改变交易的方式
05:53 - 05:57
EN: or into a Trading Range, and then they adjust their style of trading.
ZH: 直到市场从突破阶段变成通道阶段，或变成震荡区间， 然后才改变交易的方式
05:59 - 06:02
EN: These traders know what to do if the market reverses down.
ZH: 这些交易者清楚地知道：万一市场反转下跌该怎么应对
06:02 - 06:04
EN: They know how to manage their trades.
ZH: 他们知道如何管理交易
06:04 - 06:09
EN: The risk of the market falling sharply after reversing up
ZH: 在这么强势地上涨之后，市场急剧下跌的风险很小
06:07 - 06:14
EN: this strongly is small, and if it does sell off,
ZH: 在这么强势地上涨之后，市场急剧下跌的风险很小 就算有一些下跌，也几乎可以肯定， 更有可能是变成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
06:10 - 06:14
EN: almost certainly a Trading Range is more likely than a bear trend,
ZH: 就算有一些下跌，也几乎可以肯定， 更有可能是变成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
06:14 - 06:19
EN: and they can buy more lower, expecting the market to get back
ZH: 所以他们可以逢低买入更多，期待市场回到区间的上沿
06:17 - 06:22
EN: to the top of the range, where they can exit breakeven
ZH: 所以他们可以逢低买入更多，期待市场回到区间的上沿 让他们的初始仓位打平离场
06:20 - 06:22
EN: on their earliest entries up at the top of the range
ZH: 让他们的初始仓位打平离场
06:22 - 06:27
EN: and then with a profit on their later entries lower in the developing range.
ZH: 下方逢低买入的部分可以赚钱
06:29 - 06:31
EN: The same up here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
06:31 - 06:31
EN: Buy The Close.
ZH: 买收盘的上涨趋势
06:31 - 06:37
EN: Strong breakout, a bull bar follow-through;
ZH: 强势突破，有跟随的阳线——尽管体积很小， 大概率市场还要继续上涨
06:34 - 06:37
EN: even though it’s small, chances are the market’s going higher.
ZH: 强势突破，有跟随的阳线——尽管体积很小， 大概率市场还要继续上涨
06:37 - 06:40
EN: Traders can buy one or more of these closes,
ZH: 多头在其中一个或多个K线的收盘买入
06:40 - 06:43
EN: confident that the probability is high that they’ll make money.
ZH: 相信赚钱的概率很高
Slide 005
Time: 06:45
Bilingual Transcript
06:52 - 06:53
EN: It does not matter where you bought.
ZH: 你在哪里买入并不重要
06:53 - 06:56
EN: If you bought above this bar or any of these close,
ZH: 不管你在哪根K线的收盘买入
06:57 - 06:58
EN: it’s a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
06:58 - 07:03
EN: The stop is below the most recent major Higher Low, and that is here.
ZH: 止损都应该放在最近一个重要低点的下方，也就是这里
07:05 - 07:08
EN: Traders who are waiting for a pullback, they miss a huge bull trend,
ZH: 那些等待回调的交易者，最终错过了巨大的上涨趋势
07:08 - 07:12
EN: and when the pullback comes, they don’t see it as a pullback, a bull flag.
ZH: 而当回调真的来临时，他们不认为这是回调、牛旗
07:13 - 07:18
EN: Instead, they see it as a reversal,
ZH: 而是害怕反转，以此为借口，又不敢买入了
07:15 - 07:18
EN: and then they use that as a reason not to buy.
ZH: 而是害怕反转，以此为借口，又不敢买入了
Slide 006
Time: 07:25
Bilingual Transcript
07:32 - 07:37
EN: The market’s in a Trading Range here, so bears are looking to sell high,
ZH: 市场在这里处于震荡区间，所以空头逢高卖出， 至少做一笔剥头皮交易
07:36 - 07:40
EN: at least for a scalp, and bulls are buying low,
ZH: 市场在这里处于震荡区间，所以空头逢高卖出， 至少做一笔剥头皮交易 而多头逢低买入，做剥头皮，或者波段交易
07:38 - 07:40
EN: either for a scalp or for a swing.
ZH: 而多头逢低买入，做剥头皮，或者波段交易
07:41 - 07:47
EN: Even though after 20 bars the probability of a reversal is almost
ZH: 尽管在震荡了20根K线之后， 反转的概率几乎和继续上涨的概率变得一样大
07:44 - 07:47
EN: as big as the probability for a bull trend resumption,
ZH: 尽管在震荡了20根K线之后， 反转的概率几乎和继续上涨的概率变得一样大
07:48 - 07:52
EN: it’s always slightly more likely that the trend that came before will resume.
ZH: 但前期趋势恢复的可能性总是略高一些
07:53 - 07:57
EN: Most traders would not sell here because this is very strong,
ZH: 大多数交易者不会在这里卖出，因为左边的上涨非常强势
07:57 - 08:02
EN: and now we’re starting to get 8 or 10 more bars in a small bull trend.
ZH: 然后又开始出现连续8~10根K线上涨
08:02 - 08:05
EN: Looks like we have a Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 看起来这是一个双底牛旗
08:05 - 08:07
EN: and it looks like we are resuming up.
ZH: 上涨趋势正在恢复
08:14 - 08:19
EN: The bears who did sell this high, betting on Double Top, now are trapped.
ZH: 那些在这个高点挂单做空的空头，押注这是一个双顶， 现在被套牢了
08:19 - 08:23
EN: This breakout bar and that follow-through bar is more likely going to lead
ZH: 突破之后有跟随K线，很有可能要上涨到某个MM目标位，
08:23 - 08:26
EN: to a Measured Move up, maybe based upon the height of the range.
ZH: 比如把这个区间的高度往上翻一倍
08:26 - 08:28
EN: And the bears see that and they are giving up.
ZH: 空头看到了这一点，于是止损、放弃了
08:29 - 08:31
EN: The weak bulls are trapped out.
ZH: 弱多头被困在了外面
08:31 - 08:32
EN: They don’t want to buy high.
ZH: 他们不想追涨
08:32 - 08:35
EN: They see this as a Trading Range, not as trend resumption.
ZH: 他们把它看作是震荡区间，而不是趋势恢复
08:35 - 08:38
EN: So the weak bulls are trapped out, hoping to buy a pullback.
ZH: 所以弱多头被困在外面，希望等回调再买入
08:38 - 08:40
EN: When they finally get their pullback, they’re afraid to buy
ZH: 然而当回调真的发生时，他们又(因为害怕反转而)不敢买了
08:40 - 08:44
EN: - or if they do buy, they get out with a loss as the market tries to reverse down.
ZH: ——或者如果他们确实买入了，会在回调的时候亏损离场
08:44 - 08:49
EN: In any case, the bears who sold this high are trapped into a bad trade,
ZH: 总之，那些在这个高点挂单做空的空头被套牢在一笔糟糕的交易中
08:49 - 08:55
EN: and the weak bulls are trapped out,
ZH: 而弱多头被困在外面，等待着永远不会出现的完美机会 （注：就像在机场等一艘船，永远也等不来）
08:51 - 08:55
EN: constantly hoping for a perfect setup that cannot exist.
ZH: 而弱多头被困在外面，等待着永远不会出现的完美机会 （注：就像在机场等一艘船，永远也等不来）
08:56 - 09:03
EN: Experts know that the bears are trapped in and that there are
ZH: 高手知道有很多空头被套牢了，所以他们买入做多
09:00 - 09:03
EN: a lot of weak bulls trapped out, and therefore they buy.
ZH: 高手知道有很多空头被套牢了，所以他们买入做多
09:03 - 09:11
EN: They buy with confidence, knowing that the first reversal down
ZH: 他们信心十足，知道第1次下跌很可能会变成牛旗，然后继续上涨
09:07 - 09:11
EN: probably will be a bull flag and we’ll probably continue higher.
ZH: 他们信心十足，知道第1次下跌很可能会变成牛旗，然后继续上涨
Slide 007
Time: 09:15
Bilingual Transcript
09:17 - 09:20
EN: Buy The Close trades look easy when you print the chart out
ZH: 在收盘后把K线图打印出来， 你会感觉这种“买收盘”的上涨趋势很简单
09:20 - 09:24
EN: at the end of the day, but trading them real-time can be difficult.
ZH: 但实际上交易的时候非常困难
09:24 - 09:27
EN: But you can take them as long as you’re comfortable managing
ZH: 然而，只要你能够轻松地在回调时管理交易 （注：用很小的初始仓位买入，回调时加仓）
09:27 - 09:38
EN: an attempt at a reversal, knowing that whatever reversal
ZH: 因为你知道任何下跌都大概率只是小反转，上涨趋势会恢复， 空头最多让市场变成震荡区间
09:31 - 09:38
EN: you get will probably be minor and the bull trend will resume,
ZH: 因为你知道任何下跌都大概率只是小反转，上涨趋势会恢复， 空头最多让市场变成震荡区间
09:35 - 09:38
EN: and the best the bears probably will get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为你知道任何下跌都大概率只是小反转，上涨趋势会恢复， 空头最多让市场变成震荡区间
09:38 - 09:47
EN: And if they get a Trading Range, even if you bought the worst price,
ZH: 如果真的变成震荡区间，就算你在最糟糕的价格买入—— 买在顶部——大概率仍然能赚钱，至少可以避免亏损
09:41 - 09:47
EN: the top of the bull breakout, you should be able to avoid a loss
ZH: 如果真的变成震荡区间，就算你在最糟糕的价格买入—— 买在顶部——大概率仍然能赚钱，至少可以避免亏损
09:44 - 09:47
EN: or possibly even make a profit.
ZH: 如果真的变成震荡区间，就算你在最糟糕的价格买入—— 买在顶部——大概率仍然能赚钱，至少可以避免亏损
09:51 - 09:53
EN: Here we have 3 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 这里有连续3根阴线
09:53 - 09:55
EN: We have a 2 bar reversal.
ZH: 之前这里是双K反转
09:55 - 10:02
EN: If you want, you can call it a Parabolic Wedge – first push here,
ZH: 你可以把它看作是抛物线楔形——1在这里， 这是2，然后第3推抢购高潮
09:58 - 10:02
EN: maybe second push here, and then third push here to a Buy Climax,
ZH: 你可以把它看作是抛物线楔形——1在这里， 这是2，然后第3推抢购高潮
10:02 - 10:05
EN: a failed breakout above the high of the day,
ZH: 突破当天的高点失败 （注：刚突破就反转下跌）
10:05 - 10:06
EN: and you have 3 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 然后出现了连续3根阴线
10:07 - 10:11
EN: However, what’s more likely: the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 更有可能是哪种情况？是下降趋势的开始呢？
10:11 - 10:13
EN: or a Trading Range and then trend resumption up?
ZH: 还是震荡区间，然后恢复上涨趋势？
10:14 - 10:15
EN: When the bull channel is this strong,
ZH: 当上涨通道这么强势，
10:15 - 10:19
EN: especially when it’s reversing off a strong selloff,
ZH: 尤其是反转了左边剧烈的抛售
10:19 - 10:22
EN: the odds are the best the bears get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间是空头能得到的最好结果
10:22 - 10:25
EN: Here they got a Trading Range that lasted 30 or more bars,
ZH: 这里市场进入震荡区间，持续了30多根K线
10:25 - 10:28
EN: but the market still resumed up.
ZH: 最终上涨趋势恢复了
10:33 - 10:35
EN: The math is really good for the bulls.
ZH: 对多头而言，他们在数学上有优势
10:35 - 10:40
EN: Obviously it’s less good the more bars that get added to the Trading Range,
ZH: 当然，震荡区间持续的K线越多，情况就越不利 （注：说明多空力量变得平衡，反转的概率越来越大）
10:40 - 10:43
EN: but especially early on, buying these closes, buying the reversal down,
ZH: 但是在震荡刚开始的时候，在它们的收盘买入， 在下跌时逢低买入，
10:43 - 10:46
EN: buying for any reason, the math is good.
ZH: 在任何地方买入，在数学上都有优势
10:46 - 10:48
EN: The Trader’s Equation is very good.
ZH: 数学期望很好
10:48 - 10:50
EN: The probability of making money is high.
ZH: 赚钱的概率很高
10:50 - 10:54
EN: The probability of the reward being greater than the Actual Risk is high,
ZH: 利润大于实际风险的概率很高
10:54 - 10:57
EN: and because of that, many of the bulls scale in.
ZH: 因此，很多多头会分批买入
10:57 - 11:00
EN: They buy more if the market goes against them.
ZH: 在下跌的时候买入更多
Slide 008
Time: 11:05
Bilingual Transcript
11:11 - 11:17
EN: Here we are rallying for 10 bars, 20 bars.
ZH: 这里上涨了十几根K线，发生了什么？ 多头的行为，是否像是知道空头被套牢了？
11:13 - 11:17
EN: What’s going on? Are the bulls acting like the bears are trapped?
ZH: 这里上涨了十几根K线，发生了什么？ 多头的行为，是否像是知道空头被套牢了？
11:17 - 11:23
EN: Are the bulls buying closes, creating a big breakout,
ZH: 多头有没有在收盘买入（所以都是阳线收在最高）， 制造大的突破，让空头痛不欲生？
11:21 - 11:23
EN: creating a lot of problem for the bears?
ZH: 多头有没有在收盘买入（所以都是阳线收在最高）， 制造大的突破，让空头痛不欲生？
11:24 - 11:32
EN: If so, the bulls are buying aggressively,
ZH: 是的，多头在激进地买入， 所以你必须假设第1次下跌最多只是震荡区间或牛旗
11:26 - 11:32
EN: and you have to assume the first reversal down
ZH: 是的，多头在激进地买入， 所以你必须假设第1次下跌最多只是震荡区间或牛旗
11:28 - 11:32
EN: will be limited to either a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 是的，多头在激进地买入， 所以你必须假设第1次下跌最多只是震荡区间或牛旗
11:33 - 11:35
EN: Think about it from a bear perspective.
ZH: 从空头的角度来看一下
11:35 - 11:42
EN: If you’re short for any reason – Double Top or possibly the top
ZH: 如果你在某个地方做空了——双顶， 或者看作是震荡区间的顶部，押注双顶反转——
11:40 - 11:42
EN: of a Trading Range, betting on a Double Top reversal
ZH: 如果你在某个地方做空了——双顶， 或者看作是震荡区间的顶部，押注双顶反转——
11:42 - 11:49
EN: - and then you start to see this, if you’re a bear and you did not exit,
ZH: 然后你开始看到这么多连续的阳线，看着亏损不断扩大， 现在你是什么心情？你的心在滴血： “苍天哪！这样的痛苦我承受不住了
11:46 - 11:49
EN: what are you thinking? You’re thinking “Oh my God, I cannot take the pain.
ZH: 现在你是什么心情？你的心在滴血： “苍天哪！这样的痛苦我承受不住了
11:49 - 11:54
EN: I’ve got to get out.” So the bears are buying, and the bulls are buying as well.
ZH: 我必须离场！”所以空头买入回补，而多头也在买入
12:00 - 12:05
EN: Up here, what’s going on? Are the bulls acting as if the bears are trapped,
ZH: 这里呢？多头的行为是否仍然像刚才一样？
12:05 - 12:10
EN: or are the bars small and sideways with lots of small reversals?
ZH: 还是说，K线体积变小，横盘，有很多小反转？
12:10 - 12:14
EN: Is the market more balanced? Are the bulls losing confidence?
ZH: 市场是否变得更平衡？多头是否失去了信心？
12:14 - 12:17
EN: Are they beginning to take profits? That’s what’s happening here.
ZH: 是否开始止盈？所以情况发生了变化。
12:17 - 12:22
EN: Instead of a Buy The Close rally with very little pullback and no bear bars,
ZH: 不再是“买收盘”的上涨趋势，不再是几乎没有阴线和回调的上涨趋势，
12:22 - 12:31
EN: very few and small tails on the tops of bars, here we’re getting bear bars,
ZH: 不再是收在最高的阳线，这里出现了阴线、阴线、阴线， 而且阳线的体积也变得很小
12:27 - 12:31
EN: bear bars, bear bars, and the bull bodies are very small.
ZH: 不再是收在最高的阳线，这里出现了阴线、阴线、阴线， 而且阳线的体积也变得很小
12:35 - 12:39
EN: What are the bulls doing? They might still be buying the low of that bull bar.
ZH: 多头现在在干什么？ 他们可能仍然会在那个阳线的低点挂限价买单
12:39 - 12:40
EN: They might be buying that bear close.
ZH: 仍然会在那根阴线的收盘买入
12:40 - 12:44
EN: They might be buying above this bar and buying more lower.
ZH: 也许会在这根K线上方挂突破买单，并且打算在更低的价格加仓
12:44 - 12:49
EN: However, they’re no longer creating a strong Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 然而，他们的买盘不再形成一个强势的“买收盘”的上涨趋势
12:49 - 12:52
EN: They’re no longer holding onto their longs.
ZH: 他们不再坚定持有，而是开始剥头皮
12:51 - 12:52
EN: They’re scalping.
ZH: 他们不再坚定持有，而是开始剥头皮
12:52 - 13:00
EN: They’re buying low and taking quick profits, and therefore the bulls
ZH: 他们逢低买入之后，快速止盈， 说明多头认为趋势正在过渡到震荡区间
12:57 - 13:00
EN: see the trend as transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们逢低买入之后，快速止盈， 说明多头认为趋势正在过渡到震荡区间
13:01 - 13:07
EN: Well, what do the bears do when they start to see
ZH: 那么，当空头开始看到市场像这样横盘时， 他们会怎么做？他们开始在K线上方卖出做空，
13:04 - 13:07
EN: the market go sideways like this? They start to sell above bars
ZH: 那么，当空头开始看到市场像这样横盘时， 他们会怎么做？他们开始在K线上方卖出做空，
13:07 - 13:10
EN: and they start to sell bull closes near the top,
ZH: 如果有阳线收盘在上沿附近，他们卖出做空
13:10 - 13:17
EN: confident that the bull trend is not going to resume at least
ZH: 相信至少在几根K线内上涨趋势不会恢复， 很可能会继续横盘，甚至下跌
13:13 - 13:17
EN: for a few more bars and that we’re probably going to go sideways or down,
ZH: 相信至少在几根K线内上涨趋势不会恢复， 很可能会继续横盘，甚至下跌
13:17 - 13:21
EN: and therefore they can make money with limit orders scalping.
ZH: 因此空头用限价单做剥头皮赚钱
Slide 009
Time: 13:25
Bilingual Transcript
13:29 - 13:30
EN: A fairly prominent tail.
ZH: 上影线很长
13:31 - 13:35
EN: It’s still Buy The Close, but now we have a fairly big bear bar,
ZH: 仍然处于“买收盘”（的上涨趋势）， 但现在出现了一根很大的阴线
13:35 - 13:38
EN: a Micro Double Top, and this is pretty climactic.
ZH: 有小双顶，而且这是抢购高潮
13:38 - 13:42
EN: 4 consecutive bull bars with very little overlap occurring late in a bull trend.
ZH: 连续4根阳线几乎没有重叠，发生在上涨趋势的后期
13:42 - 13:45
EN: I don’t have the Measured Move drawn,
ZH: 这里我没有画出MM目标位
13:45 - 13:47
EN: but this breakout is probably a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 但这个突破大概率是一个测量型缺口
13:47 - 13:49
EN: We’re probably around a Measured Move up.
ZH: 这个价格大约就是MM目标位附近
13:49 - 13:53
EN: It’s a third push down – one, two, three
ZH: 它也是第3推了——1，2，3
13:53 - 13:55
EN: - and therefore it’s also a possible Wedge.
ZH: 所以是一个潜在的楔形顶
13:56 - 13:59
EN: If you’re buying up here, you have to change your goal.
ZH: 如果你在这里追涨了，现在就必须改变目标
14:00 - 14:02
EN: A continued rally like this is not likely.
ZH: 不太可能一直这么涨下去
14:02 - 14:07
EN: After 10, 15 bars, it’s probably not going to go up for 20 or 30 bars.
ZH: 已经上涨了10到15根K线，很难一直持续到20、30根K线
14:07 - 14:11
EN: Probably soon we’ll start to transition from a strong bull trend
ZH: 所以大概率市场即将从一个强上涨趋势
14:11 - 14:14
EN: into a Trading Range or a weak bull trend.
ZH: 过渡到震荡区间，或者弱下降趋势
14:17 - 14:20
EN: That tail on top of the bar, especially after this climactic move
ZH: 这个显著的上影线，特别是出现在抢购高潮之后，
14:20 - 14:25
EN: and this reversal down, are signs that the bulls are beginning to take profits.
ZH: 还有这根大阴线，是多头开始止盈的信号
14:25 - 14:29
EN: Their stop is too far away; they have to reduce their risk.
ZH: 他们的止损太远了，必须降低风险 （注：降低利润回撤的风险）
14:29 - 14:32
EN: The easiest way to do it is by reducing their position.
ZH: 最简单的方法就是减仓
14:32 - 14:33
EN: They’re selling.
ZH: 他们在卖出
14:40 - 14:43
EN: Can you buy that close? Can you buy below the low of this bull bar?
ZH: 可以在它的收盘买入吗？ 可以在这根阳线的低点挂限价买单吗？
14:43 - 14:49
EN: I think you can only do it if you’re willing
ZH: 除非你愿意使用较宽的初始止损，并且逢低加仓
14:45 - 14:49
EN: to use a wide stop and scale in lower.
ZH: 除非你愿意使用较宽的初始止损，并且逢低加仓
14:52 - 14:56
EN: Maybe you put a stop below this bar, the final Buy Climax,
ZH: 比如把止损放在最后抢购高潮的抵账点下方
14:56 - 14:59
EN: testing the breakout point here.
ZH: 它测试了这里的突破点
14:59 - 15:00
EN: We have this gap.
ZH: 这里有缺口
15:00 - 15:03
EN: Technically the best stop is all the way down here.
ZH: 技术上来说，最好的止损位置是在这里
15:03 - 15:06
EN: A lot of times when you get a Buy Climax, especially late in a bull trend,
ZH: 很多时候，当你看到抢购高潮，尤其是在趋势的后期，
15:07 - 15:12
EN: there’s a magnet just below its low and the market often comes down
ZH: 它的起涨点是一个磁铁， 市场往往会正好下跌到它的下方，然后立刻反弹
15:10 - 15:18
EN: to just below that low and then bounces, and then the Buy Climax
ZH: 它的起涨点是一个磁铁， 市场往往会正好下跌到它的下方，然后立刻反弹 然后这个抢购高潮就变成了后续震荡区间中的一段上涨
15:14 - 15:18
EN: becomes a bull leg in an eventual Trading Range.
ZH: 然后这个抢购高潮就变成了后续震荡区间中的一段上涨
15:18 - 15:25
EN: Like this – Buy Climax and then a selloff to below its low,
ZH: 比如像这样——抢购高潮，跌到它的起跌点附近， 然后横盘震荡了很多K线
15:21 - 15:25
EN: testing near this low, and the market goes sideways for a lot of bars.
ZH: 比如像这样——抢购高潮，跌到它的起跌点附近， 然后横盘震荡了很多K线
Slide 010
Time: 15:30
Bilingual Transcript
15:34 - 15:40
EN: Let’s say you bought this close and you were disappointed
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘买入，你对它的长上影线， 以及后面的两根K线感到失望
15:37 - 15:40
EN: by the big tail on the top of the bar and by the 2 bars that followed.
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘买入，你对它的长上影线， 以及后面的两根K线感到失望
15:41 - 15:44
EN: You’re thinking that, well, yes it was Buy The Close,
ZH: 你在想：“嗯，之前确实是买收盘的上涨趋势，
15:44 - 15:46
EN: but the down side risk is small.
ZH: 下跌的概率很小
15:46 - 15:50
EN: However, maybe it’ll go sideways a few bars and resume up.
ZH: 也许会横盘几根K线，然后恢复上涨
15:50 - 15:53
EN: A lot of the bulls who bought the close of that bar,
ZH: 在它的收盘买入的多头，
15:53 - 15:57
EN: they did not like the tail and they did not like this follow-through.
ZH: 他们不喜欢这个上影线，不喜欢后续的跟随
15:57 - 16:00
EN: So what do you do if you’re a Buy The Close bull who bought that close
ZH: 如果你按照买收盘的方法，在它的收盘买入追涨， 但是现在感到失望
16:00 - 16:07
EN: and now you’re disappointed? Well, a lot of those bulls will place a limit order
ZH: 你会怎么做？很多多头会在入场价格挂限价卖单，打平离场， 不愿意再更高的价格盈利加仓了
16:04 - 16:07
EN: to get out breakeven, and a lot of bulls will not buy higher.
ZH: 你会怎么做？很多多头会在入场价格挂限价卖单，打平离场， 不愿意再更高的价格盈利加仓了
16:07 - 16:12
EN: And the result is you get this: the bulls, instead of buying higher,
ZH: 所以造成了这样的结果：多头没有继续追涨，
16:12 - 16:16
EN: are now instead looking to get out around breakeven, around that close,
ZH: 而是希望打平离场，就在收盘价附近离场
16:16 - 16:21
EN: and the absence of buying resulted in this vacuum down to that close.
ZH: 上方没有买盘，导致价格回落到它的收盘价
16:22 - 16:25
EN: The bulls at this point, after these 2 doji bars,
ZH: 此时，在这两个十字星之后，
16:25 - 16:29
EN: are thinking that maybe they bought the final high close of the day.
ZH: 多头在想，也许他们买在了当天最高的收盘价
16:35 - 16:40
EN: What’s more likely, a continued strong bull trend or sideways to down?
ZH: 哪种情况更有可能？上涨趋势继续，还是震荡下跌？
16:40 - 16:42
EN: Probably sideways to down.
ZH: 更有可能震荡下跌
16:42 - 16:45
EN: Buy The Close bulls disappointed by the tail and disappointed
ZH: 买收盘的多头对上影线感到失望
16:45 - 16:48
EN: by the follow-through, and then you get this reversal down.
ZH: 对跟随感到失望，然后你看到了价格反转下跌
16:48 - 16:52
EN: A lot of the bulls will get out breakeven if they bought that close,
ZH: 那些在它的收盘买入的多头，很多都打平离场
16:52 - 16:55
EN: and they’ll wait 5 or 10 or more bars to see what we get.
ZH: 他们会等待5根、10根，甚至更多K线，观察之后再做决定
16:55 - 16:58
EN: Maybe we’ll get a deep pullback and they can buy lower,
ZH: 也许会有深度回调，这样他们就能在更低的价格买入
16:58 - 17:01
EN: or maybe we’ll simply go sideways and get a good looking buy setup,
ZH: 或者，如果只是横盘，并且再次出现好的做多机会
17:01 - 17:07
EN: and then they’ll buy again here, after they’ve given the bears
ZH: 他们会再次买入——多头给了空头10根K线的时间
17:04 - 17:07
EN: 10 or more bars to take control.
ZH: 他们会再次买入——多头给了空头10根K线的时间
17:07 - 17:11
EN: If they see the bears unable to take control, the bulls will buy again.
ZH: 如果他们看到空头无法掌控市场，就会再次买入
17:18 - 17:22
EN: Had you bought here and the market just sold off abruptly like this,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，市场突然这样下跌
17:22 - 17:25
EN: you can buy more lower, like two legs down – one, pullback, two,
ZH: 你可以逢低买入更多，比如两段回调——1，反弹，2
17:25 - 17:29
EN: buy above a bull bar here or here, and rely on your stop
ZH: 在这根，或这根阳线上方买入，依赖初始止损
17:29 - 17:32
EN: - either below this last leg up or all the way down here.
ZH: ——止损要么在这个起涨点下方，或者放在这里
17:35 - 17:39
EN: As I said, a lot of the bulls who bought this close did not like that tail,
ZH: 正如之前所说，很多在这个收盘买入的多头对上影线感到失望
17:39 - 17:44
EN: and then they certainly did not like 2 bars right
ZH: 他们当然也不喜欢后面两个十字星，又回到了这个收盘价
17:42 - 17:44
EN: afterwards coming back to that close.
ZH: 他们当然也不喜欢后面两个十字星，又回到了这个收盘价
17:44 - 17:47
EN: The Buy The Close bulls are trying to sell.
ZH: 这些买收盘的多头开始想要卖出离场了
17:47 - 17:50
EN: They want the market to come back below that close and sell,
ZH: 当价格再次回到这个收盘价的时候，他们会离场
17:50 - 17:56
EN: and a lot of the bulls would exit breakeven after they see 1 or 2 of these bars.
ZH: 很多人，在看到一两根这样的K线之后，就会打平离场
17:56 - 17:58
EN: So they’ll start to sell around breakeven.
ZH: 所以他们会在入场价格附近卖出
17:58 - 18:01
EN: After this big bear bar, the bulls who did not get out
ZH: 在看到这个大阴线之后，还没离场的多头更加失望
18:01 - 18:07
EN: are even more disappointed, and they’re looking to sell any little bounce
ZH: 他们会利用任何小反弹来卖出，争取打平，或者小赚一点点
18:05 - 18:07
EN: to get out with breakeven or a small profit.
ZH: 他们会利用任何小反弹来卖出，争取打平，或者小赚一点点
18:12 - 18:15
EN: I also want to talk a little bit about a FOMO bear trade,
ZH: 我也想讲一讲空头的FOMO交易
Slide 011
Time: 18:15
Bilingual Transcript
18:16 - 18:22
EN: bear traders afraid to miss out, and therefore they just sell
ZH: 空头害怕错过趋势，所以他们直接卖出做空， 于是形成了很强的下降趋势
18:20 - 18:22
EN: and it results in a very strong bear trend.
ZH: 空头害怕错过趋势，所以他们直接卖出做空， 于是形成了很强的下降趋势
Slide 012
Time: 18:24
Bilingual Transcript
18:25 - 18:31
EN: We went sideways when we had a bear breakout,
ZH: 横盘，然后空头突破，几乎没有什么反弹的下降趋势
18:28 - 18:31
EN: and then a Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 横盘，然后空头突破，几乎没有什么反弹的下降趋势
18:36 - 18:37
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势跌破
18:38 - 18:42
EN: We closed below the low of the past 30 or 40 bars, near the low of the bar.
ZH: 收盘价低于过去30~40根K线的低点，收在最低
18:42 - 18:44
EN: The bar is much bigger than the prior bars,
ZH: 它的体积比之前的K线要大得多
18:44 - 18:47
EN: and then the next bar has a bear body as well.
ZH: 然后下一根K线也是阴线
18:47 - 18:50
EN: The odds are we’re going at least a little bit lower.
ZH: 大概率至少还会再下跌一些
18:58 - 19:02
EN: Traders can sell for any reason, like on the close of this bar or, better,
ZH: 交易者可以用任何方法卖出，比如在这根K线的收盘，
19:02 - 19:06
EN: the close of that bar, and the stop goes above the top of this bear reversal.
ZH: 或者那根K线的收盘更好，止损放在反转下跌的起跌点上方
19:08 - 19:15
EN: Some traders look at this and say “Oh my gosh, I have to risk
ZH: 一些交易者说：“哎呀，如果在这里追空， 我必须冒6~7个点的风险，
19:12 - 19:15
EN: 6 or 7 points to take that trade if I sell that close,
ZH: 一些交易者说：“哎呀，如果在这里追空， 我必须冒6~7个点的风险，
19:15 - 19:18
EN: and that’s far more than I am comfortable risking.
ZH: 我不想承担这么大的止损距离
19:18 - 19:22
EN: I’m going to sell a pullback,” and they wait and wait and wait.
ZH: 我要等反弹的时候再入场。”
19:22 - 19:30
EN: When they finally get a pullback, they think “Oh, it’s a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 然而当反弹真的出现时，他们想： “额，这是楔形底，1，2，3”，所以还是没有做空
19:26 - 19:30
EN: Trying to reverse up, again, and a third time,” and they don’t sell.
ZH: 然而当反弹真的出现时，他们想： “额，这是楔形底，1，2，3”，所以还是没有做空
19:30 - 19:36
EN: And then they’re trapped out again by this and they’re hoping
ZH: 再次错过了机会，然后又开始希望在下次反弹时做空， 但又觉得这个反弹不够大，
19:34 - 19:40
EN: to sell another pullback, and this pullback’s not big enough,
ZH: 再次错过了机会，然后又开始希望在下次反弹时做空， 但又觉得这个反弹不够大， 最终犹犹豫豫，错过了整个趋势
19:37 - 19:40
EN: and they end up missing the entire trade.
ZH: 最终犹犹豫豫，错过了整个趋势
Slide 013
Time: 19:45
Bilingual Transcript
19:50 - 19:55
EN: All weak traders are afraid of risk, and the weak bulls
ZH: 所有弱的交易者都害怕风险
19:55 - 19:58
EN: are afraid of risk as well, especially in a bear trend.
ZH: 弱多头也害怕风险，尤其是在下降趋势中
19:59 - 20:03
EN: And because of that, they want small risk, and they end up buying reversals
ZH: 他们希望自己的风险很小， 于是在一个非常强的下降趋势中
20:03 - 20:05
EN: in a very strong bear trend, thinking that
20:05 - 20:10
EN: “If I buy above this bull bar, my stop is below the low.
ZH: 他们心想：“如果我在这个阳线上方买入， 止损在这个低点下方，风险很小。”
20:08 - 20:10
EN: I’m not risking much.”
ZH: 他们心想：“如果我在这个阳线上方买入， 止损在这个低点下方，风险很小。”
20:10 - 20:14
EN: But if you do that one, two, three, four, five times, at the end of the day
ZH: 如果你这样做了一次，两次，三次，四次，五次
20:14 - 20:18
EN: you did not lose much money on any one of those five entries;
ZH: 到了尾盘一看，尽管没有任何一笔大的亏损
20:18 - 20:21
EN: however, when you put the five of them together,
ZH: 但5笔亏损加起来就变成了大亏
20:21 - 20:25
EN: you needed up losing a lot of money in your effort to reduce risk.
ZH: 想要降低风险，反而导致最终亏了很多钱
20:27 - 20:31
EN: It would’ve been much more profitable to sell and use the appropriate stop
ZH: 如果做空，并且设置正确的止损，原本能赚不少钱的
20:31 - 20:35
EN: even though it was far away, but much higher probability of making money.
ZH: 尽管止损很远，但赚钱的概率更高
20:43 - 20:45
EN: The weak bulls buy every small reversal,
ZH: 弱多头总是在小反弹时买入
20:45 - 20:48
EN: especially above a bull bar closing near its high.
ZH: 尤其是看到有阳线收在高位
20:48 - 20:50
EN: They’re constantly seeing Wedge Bottoms.
ZH: 他们总是在找楔形底
20:50 - 20:53
EN: One reversal, two reversal, three reversals,
ZH: 1，2，3
20:53 - 20:57
EN: and then a failed breakout below a Wedge, and now a second leg down.
ZH: 然后这里又做多，这里又做多
20:57 - 21:03
EN: Trying to reverse again, and now another Wedge
ZH: 看到这里，发现又是一个楔形底——1，2，3—— 然后止损了之后，又做多
20:59 - 21:03
EN: - one, two, three – and then a failed breakout below that Wedge.
ZH: 看到这里，发现又是一个楔形底——1，2，3—— 然后止损了之后，又做多
21:03 - 21:07
EN: They’re constantly seeing reasons why the market will reverse up,
ZH: 他们不断寻找市场反转上涨的理由
21:07 - 21:19
EN: even though they know that the probability is high that every one
ZH: 尽管内心也知道，更大的概率是每次反弹变成熊旗， 然后下降趋势继续，而不是向上反转
21:10 - 21:19
EN: of these reversals is much more likely to become a bear flag
ZH: 尽管内心也知道，更大的概率是每次反弹变成熊旗， 然后下降趋势继续，而不是向上反转
21:14 - 21:19
EN: leading to a resumption of the bear trend than it is to become a bull trend.
ZH: 尽管内心也知道，更大的概率是每次反弹变成熊旗， 然后下降趋势继续，而不是向上反转
21:19 - 21:22
EN: These are minor reversals, not a major reversal into a bull trend.
ZH: 这些都是小反转，而不是大反转变成上涨趋势
21:27 - 21:31
EN: And as I said, the loss on every one of these is small,
ZH: 正如之前所说，虽然每次的亏损都很小
21:31 - 21:35
EN: but if you take enough of them, you’re going to end up losing a lot,
ZH: 但如果一直小亏，最终也是很多钱
21:35 - 21:39
EN: and it’s comparable to bleeding to death from a thousand papercuts.
ZH: 账户被铁杵磨成针了
21:40 - 21:42
EN: You still end up dead.
ZH: 最终难逃一死
Slide 014
Time: 21:45
Bilingual Transcript
21:49 - 21:55
EN: I think one of the best techniques to avoid missing
ZH: 防止错过下降趋势的最佳做法，就是在收盘卖出
21:53 - 21:55
EN: a strong bear trend is to sell closes.
ZH: 防止错过下降趋势的最佳做法，就是在收盘卖出
22:00 - 22:03
EN: Once you look at the market and you see it selling off strongly
ZH: 一旦你看到市场剧烈地抛售
22:03 - 22:06
EN: and you’re saying “Oh my gosh, I want to sell a pullback,”
ZH: 心想：“我害怕，我要等反弹再做空”
22:06 - 22:09
EN: sell at the market and use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 别等，直接市价做空，并且设置正确的止损
22:10 - 22:13
EN: If you’re desperate to get in, the market’s probably going lower.
ZH: 当你急切地想要入场时，市场往往会继续下跌
22:14 - 22:16
EN: Probably going lower because everyone wants to sell.
ZH: 因为每个人都想入场做空
22:23 - 22:27
EN: And everyone’s afraid of missing out, and therefore everyone’s trading.
ZH: 每个人都害怕错过机会，所以每个人都在卖出
22:27 - 22:30
EN: The stop is wide, and therefore they trade small.
ZH: 止损很远，所以他们用小仓位交易
22:30 - 22:32
EN: However, if enough traders do it,
ZH: 然而，只要有足够多的人在小仓位卖出
22:32 - 22:35
EN: the result is a relentless Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 也能形成一个无情的、几乎没有反弹的下降趋势
22:35 - 22:39
EN: You sell the breakout, another breakout, sell that close,
ZH: 跌破时卖出，再次跌破，在它的收盘卖出
22:39 - 22:41
EN: trying to reverse up – don’t buy the reversal.
ZH: 看到反弹——不要买入做多
22:41 - 22:42
EN: Sell the reversal.
ZH: 而是在反弹时卖出
22:42 - 22:44
EN: Sell at the high of this bull bar.
ZH: 在这个阳线的高点挂限价卖单
22:44 - 22:45
EN: Sell that bull close.
ZH: 在这根阳线的收盘卖出
22:45 - 22:48
EN: We have another breakout attempt here.
ZH: 这里又向下跌破了
22:48 - 22:50
EN: You sell below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 在前一根K线的低点下方挂突破卖单
22:50 - 22:52
EN: You sell above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 在前一根K线的上方挂限价卖单
22:53 - 22:57
EN: Because of the potential Wedge,
ZH: 由于可能是楔形底，所以我不会在那个阳线上方卖出
22:55 - 22:57
EN: I personally would not sell the high of that bull bar.
ZH: 由于可能是楔形底，所以我不会在那个阳线上方卖出
22:57 - 23:00
EN: However, we have a Double Top bear flag here.
ZH: 然而，这里有一个双顶熊旗
23:00 - 23:03
EN: I do not have the Moving Average drawn in,
ZH: 这里我没有显示均线
23:03 - 23:05
EN: but it’s probably just below the Moving Average.
ZH: 但它可能就在均线下方
23:05 - 23:08
EN: We have a decent bear bar, so I’d sell below the low of that bar,
ZH: 不错的阴线，所以我会在它的低点下方卖出
23:08 - 23:10
EN: and then sell closes all the way down.
ZH: 然后一路卖收盘 （注：羡慕爷爷有超大资金，可以一直盈利加仓）
23:11 - 23:14
EN: Every one of these bear closes, you wait until it closes,
ZH: 任何这些阴线，你在它们收盘的时候，
23:14 - 23:19
EN: you get your finger on the button – as soon as it closes near its low,
ZH: 只要它收盘在低位，你就点击“市价卖出”
23:17 - 23:19
EN: you just hit “Sell the Market.”
ZH: 只要它收盘在低位，你就点击“市价卖出”
23:19 - 23:21
EN: And a lot of traders are doing that.
ZH: 很多交易者都是这么做的
23:21 - 23:23
EN: Look at the open of this bar.
ZH: 所以，仔细看这根K线的开盘价，
23:23 - 23:26
EN: It’s at the high of this bar, and look at the close of the bar below.
ZH: 就是它的最高价； 再看这根K线的收盘价
23:26 - 23:30
EN: As soon as that bar closed, a lot of traders hit sell the close,
ZH: 在它收盘的瞬间，很多交易者点击“卖出”
23:30 - 23:33
EN: and the result was the high of this bar,
ZH: 所以导致这根K线的高点，
23:33 - 23:35
EN: the open of this bar, is below that close.
ZH: 同时也就是它的开盘价，低于前一根K线的收盘价 （注：即跳空低开）
23:35 - 23:36
EN: And the same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
23:36 - 23:41
EN: It tells you that the bears are extremely bearish and extremely eager to sell.
ZH: 这告诉你空头非常激进，急切地想要卖出
23:41 - 23:43
EN: As soon as any one of these bars closes,
ZH: 在每一根K线收盘的时候，
23:43 - 23:46
EN: a lot of traders are just selling at the market.
ZH: 很多交易者就点击“市价卖出”
23:47 - 23:50
EN: You have other traders just selling at the market as the market’s falling.
ZH: 也有交易者在下跌的时候直接市价卖出
23:50 - 23:51
EN: They don’t wait for the close.
ZH: 他们甚至不想等到K线收盘
23:51 - 23:52
EN: They just sell.
ZH: 一心卖空
23:52 - 23:55
EN: Very strongly bearish Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 非常强势的卖收盘下降趋势
23:58 - 24:02
EN: If you take any of these sells, your stop is up here.
ZH: 不论你在哪里入场做空，你的止损都在这里
24:02 - 24:06
EN: After 3 or 4 bars down, you have a strong enough breakout,
ZH: 在下跌了3或4根K线后，这是足够强的突破
24:06 - 24:08
EN: a lot of the bears will move their stop here.
ZH: 所以很多空头会把止损降低到这里
24:08 - 24:11
EN: So these bears, their stop is here.
ZH: 这些空头的初始止损在这里
24:11 - 24:15
EN: And once you see 3 or 4 bars here, you can tighten your stop
ZH: 一旦看到3~4根K线跌破创新低，
24:15 - 24:17
EN: to above the high of this most recent bear breakout
ZH: 就可以把止损降低到最近的起跌点上方
24:17 - 24:21
EN: - and that’s true for the bears who sold here or up here as well.
ZH: 对于那些在这里或这里入场的空头而言也是如此
24:21 - 24:26
EN: Once you’ve had a new breakout, it’s probably going to be a major Lower High.
ZH: 一旦跌破创新低，它就变成了一个重要的高点
24:26 - 24:31
EN: You can move the stop down, trail it to just above the major Lower High.
ZH: 你可以移动止损，追踪到最近一个重要高点的上方
Slide 015
Time: 24:35
Bilingual Transcript
24:36 - 24:39
EN: I began by talking about very strong bull trends – trends that,
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了非常强势的上涨趋势——
24:39 - 24:43
EN: when you look at them, you say “Oh my gosh, I really want to buy a pullback.”
ZH: 当你看到这些趋势，你会想：“求求了，我要在回调时买入”
24:43 - 24:49
EN: That is a fear of missing out trade, a FOMO trade, and experienced traders,
ZH: 这就是FOMO，害怕错过机会，
24:49 - 24:53
EN: when they start wanting to buy pullbacks, they buy at least a small position
ZH: 有经验的交易者，当他们内心产生这种想法时， 他们会至少用小仓位市价买入，
24:53 - 24:58
EN: at the market because they’re afraid the market
ZH: 以防市场继续上涨很久之后，才有回调
24:55 - 24:58
EN: may go a long way up before there’s a pullback.
ZH: 以防市场继续上涨很久之后，才有回调
24:58 - 25:01
EN: They’re afraid of missing out, so they buy small.
ZH: 他们不想错过趋势，所以小仓位入场
25:02 - 25:05
EN: The opposite is true in a very strong bear trend.
ZH: 在非常强势的下降趋势中也是一样
25:05 - 25:07
EN: If you’re looking at the trend and you’re saying,
ZH: 如果你看着K线图，然后心想：
25:07 - 25:11
EN: “Oh my gosh, I really want a pullback so I can sell with smaller risk,”
ZH: “能不能给我一个反弹的机会，让我以更小的风险卖出做空”
25:11 - 25:17
EN: that means it’s a fear of missing out trend, a Sell The Close bear trend,
ZH: 说明这是一个FOMO的下降趋势，是“卖收盘”的下降趋势
25:17 - 25:22
EN: and it’s much better to simply do what everyone else is doing
ZH: 直接市价卖出，会是更好的选择，就像专业交易员所做的那样
25:21 - 25:22
EN: and just sell at the market.
ZH: 直接市价卖出，会是更好的选择，就像专业交易员所做的那样
25:22 - 25:25
EN: Trade small enough and use the appropriate stop,
ZH: 用足够小的仓位，并设置合理的止损
25:25 - 25:29
EN: hoping that the market quickly goes your way so you can take a quick profit
ZH: 如果市场继续下跌，你就可以快速止盈（剥头皮）
25:29 - 25:33
EN: knowing that if you get a reversal, the odds are very high it’ll be minor.
ZH: 同时你也知道，就算有一些反弹， 很大的概率只是小反转
25:33 - 25:39
EN: You can sell more higher and then avoid a loss
ZH: 你可以逢高加仓，这样跌回来的时候至少也不会亏钱
25:36 - 25:39
EN: when it gets back to your original entry point.
ZH: 你可以逢高加仓，这样跌回来的时候至少也不会亏钱
25:43 - 25:44
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
25:44 - 25:47
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
25:47 - 25:50
EN: This is the first of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 在趋势后期入场的第1节课，就先讲到这里
Slide 016
Time: 25:54
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.