al-brooks-course
42A - Trading Climactic Reversals (Failed Breakouts)
Raw transcript and slide notes for 42A - Trading Climactic Reversals (Failed Breakouts).
Overview
- Slides: 22
- Transcript segments: 685
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the first of three videos on trading climactic reversals.
ZH: 接下来的3节课，我们来讲如何交易高潮反转
00:09 - 00:13
EN: A climactic reversal is simply a failed breakout.
ZH: 高潮反转是一次失败的突破
Slide 001
Time: 00:15
Bilingual Transcript
00:17 - 00:21
EN: Whenever you see a breakout and it does not look particularly strong,
ZH: 每当你看到一次突破，但它看起来并不是特别强势
00:21 - 00:25
EN: it usually means that the market is going to transition
ZH: 通常意味着市场很快会转变成震荡区间
00:23 - 00:25
EN: into a Trading Range fairly soon.
ZH: 通常意味着市场很快会转变成震荡区间
00:26 - 00:29
EN: Every breakout can succeed or fail.
ZH: 每次突破都可能成功或失败
00:29 - 00:32
EN: If it succeeds, it often leads to a Measured Move up,
ZH: 如果成功，通常会继续涨到MM目标位
00:32 - 00:35
EN: and the breakout bar becomes a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 突破K线就变成了测量型缺口
00:35 - 00:38
EN: If it fails, the market usually reverses to beyond the start
ZH: 如果失败，市场通常会反转到突破K线的起涨点下方
00:38 - 00:42
EN: of the breakout bar, and the bar is an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 那么这根突破K线就变成了竭尽型缺口
00:44 - 00:51
EN: I think it’s always important to be thinking about what the strong bulls
ZH: 我认为，始终考虑强多头、强空头、弱多头、弱空头分别会怎么做， 是非常重要的一件事
00:47 - 00:51
EN: and bears are doing at any time and what the weak bulls and bears are doing.
ZH: 我认为，始终考虑强多头、强空头、弱多头、弱空头分别会怎么做， 是非常重要的一件事
Slide 002
Time: 00:52
Bilingual Transcript
00:55 - 01:01
EN: One of the things that I always like to watch is whether
ZH: 我很喜欢观察，多头是否能在下降趋势中赚钱
00:58 - 01:01
EN: or not bulls can make money in a bear trend.
ZH: 我很喜欢观察，多头是否能在下降趋势中赚钱
01:01 - 01:04
EN: And if they can, that usually means the bear trend is weakening
ZH: 如果可以，那么通常意味着下降趋势正在减弱
01:04 - 01:08
EN: and the market will probably soon transition into a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场很快就会转变成震荡区间
01:13 - 01:17
EN: For example, if a bull buys this low and buys more lower,
ZH: 例如，如果一个多头在这个低点挂单买入， 然后在下方加仓，
01:17 - 01:21
EN: or simply instead of buying this low, buys the size of a scalp
ZH: 或者限价买单不是挂在这个低点，
01:21 - 01:27
EN: or two lower and makes money, that tells me that this bear channel
ZH: 而是挂在下方一两个点，然后能够赚钱， 说明这个下降通道大概率不是很强
01:25 - 01:27
EN: is probably not all that strong.
ZH: 而是挂在下方一两个点，然后能够赚钱， 说明这个下降通道大概率不是很强
01:27 - 01:29
EN: It’s a stairs pattern.
ZH: 它是阶梯式的下跌
01:29 - 01:36
EN: The pullbacks are overlapping the breakout point, and it usually means
ZH: 反弹超过了突破点（有重叠） 这通常意味着通道很快会演变成震荡区间
01:32 - 01:36
EN: that the channel will evolve into a Trading Range pretty soon.
ZH: 这通常意味着通道很快会演变成震荡区间
01:39 - 01:42
EN: For example, we have a bear breakout.
ZH: 例如，空头突破，有第2段下跌
01:41 - 01:42
EN: We have a second leg down.
ZH: 例如，空头突破，有第2段下跌
01:42 - 01:46
EN: But some bulls will be buying below every low,
ZH: 但一些多头会在每个前期低点下方买入
01:46 - 01:48
EN: and let’s say a bull bought this low.
ZH: 假设一个多头在这个低点挂单买入
01:48 - 01:50
EN: He buys at the prior low,
ZH: 他在前期低点挂单买入，
01:52 - 01:56
EN: and he’s willing to buy more a point or two lower.
ZH: 并且愿意在下方1或2个点加仓
01:56 - 01:59
EN: Remember, when he’s scaling in at a lower price,
ZH: 在逢低加仓的时候
01:59 - 02:03
EN: he always wants his next entry to be at least the size of a scalp.
ZH: 距离初始入场至少要间隔一笔剥头皮交易的距离
02:03 - 02:05
EN: In the Emini, that’s 1 point.
ZH: 在ES期货中，至少是1个点 （注：当时标普只有2000点不到）
02:05 - 02:10
EN: If he’s adding to his trade, he wants to be buying
ZH: 所以如果他要加仓，至少要距离初始入场价1~2个点
02:08 - 02:10
EN: 1 or 2 points below his first entry.
ZH: 所以如果他要加仓，至少要距离初始入场价1~2个点
02:10 - 02:13
EN: So he buys here, he might buy more here.
ZH: 所以他在这里买入，然后在这里买入更多
02:17 - 02:20
EN: And then if the market gets back to his first entry,
ZH: 如果市场回到他的初始入场点
02:20 - 02:22
EN: he can get out breakeven on his first buy
ZH: 他的初始仓位就可以打平离场
02:22 - 02:25
EN: and then with a scalp profit on his second buy.
ZH: 加仓的部分可以赚到剥头皮的利润
02:25 - 02:29
EN: And if that works, if the bulls can make money buying in a bear trend,
ZH: 如果多头的这种做法能够在下降趋势中赚到钱
02:29 - 02:33
EN: it usually means the bear trend is not particularly strong,
ZH: 通常意味着下降趋势并不是特别强势
02:33 - 02:35
EN: and it will soon transition into a Trading Range.
ZH: 并且很快会转变成震荡区间
02:38 - 02:43
EN: Again, after the bulls see that they made money buying this low,
ZH: 当多头看到之前在这个低点挂单买入可以赚钱，
02:43 - 02:45
EN: they’re more inclined to buy this low.
ZH: 那么在这个低点，他们就更加愿意挂单买入
02:46 - 02:51
EN: They place a limit order to buy at the low and buy more 1 or 2 points lower.
ZH: 他们在这个低点挂限价买单，然后在下方1~2个点加仓
02:51 - 02:54
EN: Other bulls, instead of buying at that low, they simply place a limit order
ZH: 一些多头的限价买单不是挂在这个低点，
02:54 - 02:56
EN: to buy 1 or 2 points below this low.
ZH: 而是直接挂在下方1~2个点
02:57 - 03:01
EN: Will the pullback from this breakout go back above the breakout point?
ZH: 跌破之后，会反弹回到突破点的上方吗？
03:01 - 03:06
EN: If it does, then the limit order bulls will make money.
ZH: 如果会，那么挂限价单买入的多头就能赚到钱
03:08 - 03:13
EN: They buy with a limit order here, they might add on a point or two lower here,
ZH: 他们在这个低点挂单买入，在下方1~2个点加仓
03:14 - 03:19
EN: and then they place a limit order to get out breakeven
ZH: 然后把止盈的限价卖单挂在初始的入场价格
03:17 - 03:19
EN: at their first entry – which is at that low.
ZH: 然后把止盈的限价卖单挂在初始的入场价格
03:19 - 03:23
EN: And if the market allows them to get out, then they made money.
ZH: 如果订单成交，他们就赚到钱了——
03:23 - 03:26
EN: They get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
03:24 - 03:26
EN: and with a profit on their second entry.
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
03:26 - 03:31
EN: This is a stairs pattern, where the pullback overlaps the breakout point,
ZH: 所以这是阶梯模式，反弹超过了突破点
03:31 - 03:36
EN: and it’s usually the sign of a channel
ZH: 这通常是通道很快会转变成震荡区间的信号
03:33 - 03:36
EN: that will soon transition into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这通常是通道很快会转变成震荡区间的信号
Slide 003
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:43 - 03:45
EN: Trading Ranges are always trying to reverse.
ZH: 震荡区间中总是在尝试反转
03:45 - 03:48
EN: It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up.
ZH: 下跌，上涨，下跌，上涨
03:48 - 03:52
EN: A lot of sideways bars, a lot of bars with prominent tails.
ZH: 很多横盘的K线，很多明显的上、下影线
03:52 - 03:55
EN: When you see the market behaving that way,
ZH: 当你看到市场做出这样的行为
03:55 - 03:59
EN: the market’s probably going to have Trading Range price action all day,
ZH: 市场很有可能会震荡一整天
03:59 - 04:02
EN: and you can see here, intensely sideways.
ZH: 比如这里，一直在横盘
04:02 - 04:07
EN: Lots of reversals, small bodies, and the market is in a very tight range.
ZH: 很多反转，K线很小，市场处于非常窄的区间内
04:07 - 04:15
EN: Even though the market’s having a bear breakout here, you have to suspect
ZH: 尽管这里向下跌破了，你也要怀疑（是否会进入趋势）， 还是说今天仍然会继续震荡下去
04:12 - 04:15
EN: that this type of price action will last the remainder of the day.
ZH: 尽管这里向下跌破了，你也要怀疑（是否会进入趋势）， 还是说今天仍然会继续震荡下去
04:20 - 04:26
EN: This particular Trading Range is about half the size of an average recent day,
ZH: 这个区间的高度大约是最近每天平均振幅的一半
04:26 - 04:33
EN: and therefore, if the bears get a breakout, the size of the breakout
ZH: 因此，如果向下跌破，突破的高度可能和上面这个区间的高度一样
04:30 - 04:33
EN: might be the size of this upper range.
ZH: 因此，如果向下跌破，突破的高度可能和上面这个区间的高度一样
04:40 - 04:41
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势跌破
04:41 - 04:46
EN: We have a breakout, a 3 bar breakout, and consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 连续3根阴线向下跌破
04:46 - 04:48
EN: Not particularly big, but still a 3 bar breakout
ZH: 体积并不是很大，但仍然是连续3根阴线
04:48 - 04:50
EN: and then additional breakout here.
ZH: 然后这里继续下跌
04:50 - 04:54
EN: The market’s Always In Short, but look at the size of these breakout bars.
ZH: 市场处于单边下跌，但看看这些突破K线的大小
04:54 - 04:59
EN: Are they big relative to the bars to the left? No, not at all.
ZH: 和左边的K线相比，它们明显更大吗？完全没有
04:59 - 05:02
EN: They’re really not big at all, and therefore this is a weak breakout.
ZH: 体积一点也不大，因此这是一次弱突破
05:02 - 05:04
EN: Also, look at these bars.
ZH: 再仔细观察这些K线
05:04 - 05:07
EN: They have tails below, and look at the follow-through bar.
ZH: 都有下影线；再看跟随K线
05:07 - 05:12
EN: It’s a doji bar, and we have another bear bar,
ZH: （跌破前期低点之后）十字星， 下一根阴线的下影线很长，然后又是十字星
05:09 - 05:12
EN: a breakout bar with a big tail, followed by another doji.
ZH: （跌破前期低点之后）十字星， 下一根阴线的下影线很长，然后又是十字星
05:13 - 05:16
EN: This is therefore a fairly weak breakout.
ZH: 因此，这是一次相当弱的突破
05:17 - 05:19
EN: 3 bar breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 3根阴线，但跌破前低之后的跟随不好
05:19 - 05:21
EN: Bear breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 阴线，跟随不好
05:21 - 05:25
EN: Usually means that the breakout is not going to lead to a strong bear trend.
ZH: 通常，这说明这个突破不会导致强势的下降趋势
05:34 - 05:37
EN: When you have a breakout that’s not particularly strong,
ZH: 当突破不是很强势的时候，
05:37 - 05:40
EN: you have to assume it’s going to lead to a Trading Range soon,
ZH: 你必须假设它很快会进入震荡区间
05:40 - 05:46
EN: and if it’s going to be a Trading Range, you may get a bull leg
ZH: 如果确实是震荡区间， 那么接下来的上涨波段就会修复全部跌幅——至少是大部分
05:43 - 05:46
EN: that retraces much or all of the breakout.
ZH: 如果确实是震荡区间， 那么接下来的上涨波段就会修复全部跌幅——至少是大部分
05:46 - 05:52
EN: In fact, a weak bear breakout might even lead to more
ZH: 事实上，弱空头突破之后， 可能不仅仅只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
05:50 - 05:52
EN: than just a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 事实上，弱空头突破之后， 可能不仅仅只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
05:52 - 05:54
EN: It could lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 甚至会反转成为上涨趋势
05:57 - 06:01
EN: In this particular case, it led to a Trading Range lasting 20 or 30 bars.
ZH: 在这个案例中，后面是持续了20~30根K线的震荡区间、
06:01 - 06:06
EN: Later in the day it had a reversal
ZH: 在尾盘反转上涨——低点略微降低的大反转
06:04 - 06:06
EN: from a slightly Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 在尾盘反转上涨——低点略微降低的大反转
06:06 - 06:12
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout by going mostly sideways, and then we tested down
ZH: 下降趋势，横向突破下降趋势线，测试前期低点
06:12 - 06:16
EN: at the lows and we have a second entry buy going into the close.
ZH: 然后从第2做多入场点开始，一直涨到收盘
Slide 004
Time: 06:20
Bilingual Transcript
06:22 - 06:24
EN: When you see Trading Range price action,
ZH: 当你看到震荡的价格行为时
06:24 - 06:27
EN: you’re going to be looking to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 你应该寻找低买、高卖的剥头皮机会
06:27 - 06:34
EN: You can see the videos on trading in Trading Ranges
ZH: 在震荡区间的课程中，我讲解了如何入场，以及如何管理风险
06:30 - 06:34
EN: for how to place those trades and how to manage your stops.
ZH: 在震荡区间的课程中，我讲解了如何入场，以及如何管理风险
06:39 - 06:43
EN: When I’m talking about buying, it can be buying back shorts,
ZH: 我所说的“低买”这个词，它可以指空头买入回补，
06:43 - 06:46
EN: or it also can be talking about buying for a scalp up.
ZH: 也可以指多头买入开仓做剥头皮交易
06:51 - 06:55
EN: And when I talk about selling in a Trading Range, selling high,
ZH: 当我说在震荡区间中“高卖”
06:55 - 06:58
EN: I’m talking about selling to take profits on longs
ZH: 指的是多头卖出止盈
06:58 - 07:01
EN: and then also selling to scalp shorts.
ZH: 也可以是空头卖出做空
07:02 - 07:10
EN: You’re going to exit longs on any reasonable sell signal, and at the bottom
ZH: 多头在区间顶部看到合理的卖出信号时离场； 空头在区间底部看到合理的买入信号时离场
07:07 - 07:10
EN: of the range you’re going to exit shorts on any reasonable buy signal.
ZH: 多头在区间顶部看到合理的卖出信号时离场； 空头在区间底部看到合理的买入信号时离场
Slide 005
Time: 07:15
Bilingual Transcript
07:18 - 07:24
EN: Let’s say a trader sees this as a potential bear trend
ZH: 假设一个交易者认为这是潜在的下降趋势，会持续很久
07:22 - 07:24
EN: that could last a long time.
ZH: 假设一个交易者认为这是潜在的下降趋势，会持续很久
07:24 - 07:27
EN: He might sell the close of this bar, betting that the market
ZH: 也许他在这根K线的收盘卖出做空，
07:27 - 07:31
EN: will continue down far enough at least to make a profit.
ZH: 押注还会继续下跌，至少能赚到一笔剥头皮
07:31 - 07:38
EN: A trader taking that short needs a stop
ZH: 在这里做空的空头需要把止损放在最近一个重要高点的上方， 也就是这个起跌点的上方
07:33 - 07:38
EN: above the most recent major Lower High, which is the high of this bear breakout,
ZH: 在这里做空的空头需要把止损放在最近一个重要高点的上方， 也就是这个起跌点的上方
07:38 - 07:42
EN: and it would be better if he can scale in if it pulls back.
ZH: 并且最好要在反弹的时候逢高加仓
07:47 - 07:52
EN: Now, what happens after the trader sees what followed? He sees 2 dojis, 3 dojis.
ZH: 看到后续的跟随，此时空头会怎么想？ 他看到两个十字星，三个十字星
07:52 - 07:57
EN: He’s probably disappointed, and a lot of the bears will buy back their shorts.
ZH: 空头很失望，其中很多人会买入回补
07:57 - 07:59
EN: And the bulls see that as well.
ZH: 多头也看到了这一点
07:59 - 08:01
EN: They see doji bars after a weak breakout
ZH: 他们看到弱突破之后的十字星
08:01 - 08:04
EN: and they think the market might be transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们认为市场可能很快就会进入震荡区间
08:04 - 08:06
EN: They like to take second entry buys.
ZH: 他们会在第2入场点买入
08:06 - 08:09
EN: Here’s a first entry buy above this bar,
ZH: 这根K线的高点上方是第1做多入场点
08:09 - 08:11
EN: and above this bar is a second entry buy.
ZH: 这根K线的高点上方是第2做多入场点
08:11 - 08:12
EN: This is a reasonable buy.
ZH: 这是一个合理的买点
08:12 - 08:16
EN: And now we have a slight Double Bottom, and this is even better
ZH: 现在有一个小双底，在这里买入更好，
08:16 - 08:17
EN: because we have a pair of bull bars,
ZH: 因为有连续两根阳线
08:17 - 08:21
EN: and buying above bull bars is slightly higher probability.
ZH: 在阳线的上方买入的胜率会更高一点
08:22 - 08:28
EN: Are the bulls buying for a swing up? No, this is not a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 多头预期的是上涨波段吗？ 不是，这不是一个大反转
08:28 - 08:30
EN: It’s a minor reversal after a bear breakout,
ZH: 这是空头突破之后的反弹
08:30 - 08:32
EN: so the bulls are buying for a scalp,
ZH: 所以多头只是在做剥头皮交易
08:35 - 08:37
EN: and they’ll take a scalper’s profit
ZH: 他们赚一两个点就离场
08:37 - 08:42
EN: - 1 or 2 points above – or they’ll look at a couple legs up
ZH: 或者他们预期会有两段上涨
08:42 - 08:48
EN: and sell the close of a strong bull bar, betting against a bull reversal,
ZH: 然后在大阳线的收盘卖出止盈， 因为他们不认为会有大的反转
08:48 - 08:50
EN: instead betting that it’s a minor reversal.
ZH: 所以趁着反弹的时候止盈离场
08:50 - 08:54
EN: And if you have a strong bull bar after a minor reversal has gone on
ZH: 如果反弹持续了几根K线后，又出现强势的阳线，
08:54 - 08:57
EN: for a few bars, it’s probably not going to have follow-through.
ZH: 它的后面大概率不会有跟随
08:57 - 09:00
EN: It’s probably going to reverse back down.
ZH: 更有可能反转下跌
09:05 - 09:09
EN: Now, the bears who sold this close, they’ll sell more.
ZH: 之前在它的收盘卖出做空的空头，现在会卖出更多
09:09 - 09:13
EN: If they did not get out here, they’ll say, okay,
ZH: 如果他们没有在这里离场 （注：多头入场剥头皮，所以空头可以在这里先离场）
09:13 - 09:15
EN: any reversal up’s probably going to be minor.
ZH: 说明空头认为任何上涨都只是反弹而已
09:16 - 09:20
EN: The selloff is fairly weak, so we may get a pullback that’s pretty high up,
ZH: 并不是很强的下降趋势，所以可能会有较大的反弹
09:20 - 09:24
EN: but as long as it stays below the top of this major Lower High,
ZH: 但只要价格不超过这个重要的高点
09:24 - 09:28
EN: it’s still a bear trend, and therefore it’s still okay to hold short.
ZH: 下降趋势就仍然成立，所以仍然可以继续做空
09:28 - 09:32
EN: These bears are either selling a fixed number of points above
ZH: 这些空头要么把限价卖单挂在上方1，2，或3个点
09:32 - 09:36
EN: - 1, 2, 3 points above – or at resistance, like the breakout point.
ZH: 或者挂在阻力位，比如突破点
09:36 - 09:40
EN: Or they’ll sell a strong bull close near the Moving Average.
ZH: 或者他们会在均线附近的阳线收盘卖出
09:40 - 09:44
EN: Here’s a second strong bull close, a small Wedge rally – three pushes up, one,
ZH: 这是第2个强势阳线的收盘，小的楔形反弹，3次上涨——
09:44 - 09:49
EN: pullback, two, pullback, three – or they’ll sell on a reversal down,
ZH: 1，回调；2，回调；3； 或者他们会在反转下跌时卖出
09:49 - 09:54
EN: like below that bear bar, adding to their short position from right here.
ZH: 比如在这个阴线下方卖出、加仓；初始仓位在之前这里
09:54 - 09:57
EN: And then if it gets back down to their original short,
ZH: 如果市场跌回到他们的初始入场价格
09:57 - 10:03
EN: they’ll buy back their shorts, breakeven on their first short
ZH: 他们就可以买入回补，初始仓位打平， 上方加仓的部分赚钱
10:01 - 10:03
EN: and then with a profit on their higher short.
ZH: 他们就可以买入回补，初始仓位打平， 上方加仓的部分赚钱
10:09 - 10:13
EN: The bears who sold down here willing to sit through a pullback
ZH: 那些在这里卖出的空头愿意在反弹中继续持有
10:13 - 10:15
EN: - who were hoping there would be no pullback;
ZH: ——当然，他们最好市场不反弹，
10:15 - 10:18
EN: they wanted the market just to go down – however, they were confident
ZH: 希望市场直接继续下跌； ——但他们有信心
10:18 - 10:23
EN: that the reversal would be minor, and if it’s minor,
ZH: 即使上涨，也只是小反转而已， 所以市场大概率会跌回到他们的初始入场价
10:20 - 10:23
EN: the market would probably come back to their entry price
ZH: 即使上涨，也只是小反转而已， 所以市场大概率会跌回到他们的初始入场价
10:23 - 10:25
EN: and they could get out without a loss.
ZH: 至少不会让他们亏钱
10:25 - 10:29
EN: And if they scale in higher, they can get out
ZH: 如果他们在更高的位置加仓，他们加仓的部分还能够赚钱
10:27 - 10:29
EN: with a profit on their second entry.
ZH: 如果他们在更高的位置加仓，他们加仓的部分还能够赚钱
10:30 - 10:37
EN: If you sold this close hoping for a bear trend and then you see this
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出，希望下降趋势继续； 然而你发现市场开始横盘，接着又看到大幅的反弹
10:33 - 10:37
EN: and then you see a fairly significant minor reversal,
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出，希望下降趋势继续； 然而你发现市场开始横盘，接着又看到大幅的反弹
10:38 - 10:41
EN: you’re probably thinking that instead of a bear trend,
ZH: 你很可能会觉得，市场不再是下降趋势
10:41 - 10:43
EN: the market’s forming a Trading Range,
ZH: 而是在形成震荡区间
10:43 - 10:46
EN: and they’re disappointed by the size of this rally.
ZH: 空头对这么大幅的反弹感到失望
10:46 - 10:50
EN: And because it’s a disappointing follow-through after their breakout
ZH: 又因为空头突破之后的跟随不好，
10:50 - 10:52
EN: and the breakout’s not all that strong,
ZH: 而且突破本身也没有那么强势
10:52 - 10:55
EN: the bears are probably switching to scalp mode.
ZH: 所以空头会开始做剥头皮交易 （注：对趋势没有信心）
11:00 - 11:04
EN: Sell The Close bears, they can either get out breakeven here
ZH: 卖收盘的空头，要么在这里打平离场
Slide 006
Time: 11:00
Bilingual Transcript
11:04 - 11:07
EN: or they can add to their shorts for any reason, like below a bear bar,
ZH: 或者他们逢高加仓了，比如在这根阴线下方卖出，
11:07 - 11:10
EN: at this bull close – now we have a Double Top Lower High,
ZH: 在这根阳线收盘卖出； 现在是一个双顶熊旗，
11:10 - 11:13
EN: so they could sell below that bear bar and get filled over here
ZH: 所以空头可以在那根阴线的下方挂突破卖单， 订单会在这里成交
11:13 - 11:16
EN: - looking to get out around their low close.
ZH: 他们希望价格可以跌回到之前的那个收盘价附近
11:16 - 11:18
EN: If you sold this close, your exit is here.
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出，可以在这里打平离场
11:18 - 11:24
EN: You only add on if your second entry is
ZH: 加仓的位置距离初始仓位至少要有一笔剥头皮交易的规模
11:21 - 11:24
EN: at least the size of a scalp above your first.
ZH: 加仓的位置距离初始仓位至少要有一笔剥头皮交易的规模
11:24 - 11:29
EN: In the Emini, that means you want the second entry to be
ZH: 在ES期货中，加仓的位置至少要在初始入场价格上方1个点
11:27 - 11:29
EN: at least 1 point above the first.
ZH: 在ES期货中，加仓的位置至少要在初始入场价格上方1个点
11:29 - 11:33
EN: If a bear sold this close, he gets out breakeven here,
ZH: 如果空头在它的收盘卖出，然后在这里打平离场
11:33 - 11:40
EN: and part of the reason why the market reversed here is
ZH: 价格在这里反转上涨的一部分原因， 就是因为失望的空头在这里买入回补
11:36 - 11:40
EN: because you had disappointed bears buying at that low close.
ZH: 价格在这里反转上涨的一部分原因， 就是因为失望的空头在这里买入回补
11:45 - 11:46
EN: The bulls know that.
ZH: 多头也知道这一点
11:46 - 11:49
EN: The bulls see that they got a pretty good pullback,
ZH: 多头看到了相当不错的反弹
11:49 - 11:52
EN: and they know the bears who sold the low closes are going
ZH: 他们知道那些在最低收盘价卖出的空头
11:52 - 11:55
EN: to be buying back their shorts around those closes,
ZH: 会在入场价格附近买入回补（打平离场）
11:55 - 11:59
EN: and strong bears will place limit orders to buy at that low close,
ZH: 所以强多头会在那个收盘价挂现价买单
11:59 - 12:03
EN: betting that they’re buying at the bottom of what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 押注市场即将变成震荡区间，而他们买在区间的底部
12:03 - 12:05
EN: They’re betting against a strong bear trend.
ZH: 他们押注这不是强下降趋势
12:05 - 12:09
EN: They see the Trading Range price action, they see the weak breakout,
ZH: 他们看到震荡的价格行为，他们看到弱突破，
12:09 - 12:11
EN: they see the pretty good reversal up.
ZH: 他们看到反弹足够强势
12:11 - 12:15
EN: They think the market’s in a Trading Range, so they’ll buy for any reason
ZH: 他们认为市场处于震荡区间，所以会在底部用各种方式买入，
12:15 - 12:19
EN: near the bottom of the range, and one reason is buying at the low close.
ZH: 其中一种方式就是在前期最低的收盘价挂限价买单
12:26 - 12:28
EN: Stop entry bulls – some bulls prefer stop entries
ZH: 突破单多头——更喜欢用突破买单入场的多头——
12:28 - 12:30
EN: - they prefer second entry buys.
ZH: 他们更喜欢第二做多入场点
12:30 - 12:32
EN: Here’s a first entry buy.
ZH: 这里是第1入场点
12:32 - 12:33
EN: Not good after 4 bear bars.
ZH: 左边是4根阴线，所以不好
12:33 - 12:35
EN: Here’s a second entry buy.
ZH: 这里是第2入场点
12:35 - 12:38
EN: It’s better, but it’s still 3 dojis, no bull bar.
ZH: 比之前略好，但它们都是十字星，没有阳线作为信号
12:38 - 12:39
EN: And here’s a third entry buy.
ZH: 这里是第3做多入场点
12:39 - 12:43
EN: You can call it a second entry buy, a small Double Bottom
ZH: 也可以把它看作是第2入场点——这里是一个小的双低
12:43 - 12:44
EN: and a bigger Double Bottom.
ZH: 还有一个更大的双低
12:45 - 12:49
EN: Bulls will buy a reversal up from the bottom of the range.
ZH: 多头会在价格从底部反转上涨时买入
12:49 - 12:51
EN: This is a reasonable stop entry buy.
ZH: 在这里用突破单买入是合理的
Slide 007
Time: 12:55
Bilingual Transcript
13:01 - 13:04
EN: All through here, the market is still Always In Short,
ZH: 一直到这里，市场都仍处于下降趋势
13:04 - 13:09
EN: and because it’s still Always In Short,
ZH: 因为是下降趋势，所以大多数人买入也只是为了剥头皮
13:07 - 13:09
EN: most traders are buying only for a scalp.
ZH: 因为是下降趋势，所以大多数人买入也只是为了剥头皮
13:11 - 13:15
EN: I think it’s reasonable to look at this as a Double Bottom Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我认为把它看作一个双底大反转是合理的
13:15 - 13:17
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破
13:17 - 13:21
EN: The bears were unable to get the bear trend to resume for 15 or 20 bars,
ZH: 在接下来的15~20根K线中，空头无法恢复下降趋势
13:21 - 13:23
EN: so that’s a sign of decent Buying Pressure,
ZH: 说明有良好的买压
13:23 - 13:26
EN: and therefore buying this for a swing trade is okay.
ZH: 所以买入做波段交易是可以的
13:26 - 13:28
EN: But look at the time.
ZH: 但是看时间
13:28 - 13:33
EN: With this little time left in the day, most of the bulls
ZH: 很快就要收盘了，所以多头买入只是为了剥头皮
13:31 - 13:33
EN: who take this buy are only buying for a scalp.
ZH: 很快就要收盘了，所以多头买入只是为了剥头皮
13:40 - 13:42
EN: Most experienced traders do not like to reverse,
ZH: 大部分有经验的交易者不喜欢反向开仓 （注：比如一开始做多，然后平仓的同时反手做空）
13:42 - 13:45
EN: so most traders are not buying this close
ZH: 大部分交易者不会在这里买入做多，
13:45 - 13:49
EN: and then reversing to short here and then reversing to long here.
ZH: 然后在这里反手做空，又在这里反手做多
13:49 - 13:53
EN: Usually they like to wait a bar or two or three after they exit
ZH: 通常他们在离场后会等待两三根K线，
13:54 - 13:56
EN: before they take a trade in the opposite direction
ZH: 然后再决定是不是要做反方向的交易
13:56 - 14:00
EN: - in part because trading is a little bit tiring and they need a break,
ZH: 部分原因是交易有点累，他们需要休息
14:00 - 14:07
EN: and then the other reason is it’s hard to be objective
ZH: 另一个原因是，很难在一个趋势中持仓的同时对相反方向保持客观
14:03 - 14:07
EN: about taking an opposite trade when you’re trading in one direction.
ZH: 另一个原因是，很难在一个趋势中持仓的同时对相反方向保持客观
14:13 - 14:17
EN: Physically, it’s also sometimes difficult to trade.
ZH: 这样做的难度很大
14:17 - 14:21
EN: You’re more prone to make mistakes if you’re trying to place a reverse order.
ZH: 用反向开仓的订单更容易犯错误 （注：期货平台通常都有“一键反向开仓”的订单功能）
14:22 - 14:28
EN: However, if you can do it profitably and comfortably, then go ahead and do it.
ZH: 然而，如果这样做对你而言很轻松、能盈利，那就继续吧
14:33 - 14:40
EN: I want to talk a little bit about breakouts that succeed
ZH: 接下来我想讲成功的突破和失败的突破——测量型缺口与竭尽型缺口
Slide 008
Time: 14:35
Bilingual Transcript
14:36 - 14:40
EN: versus breakouts that fail – Measuring Gaps versus Exhaustion Gaps.
ZH: 接下来我想讲成功的突破和失败的突破——测量型缺口与竭尽型缺口
Slide 009
Time: 14:41
Bilingual Transcript
14:44 - 14:48
EN: Every trend bar is a breakout and a climax.
ZH: 每根趋势K线都是一次突破，也是一次高潮
14:52 - 14:56
EN: When I use the term “climax,” I’m usually referring to a bigger trend bar.
ZH: 当我说“高潮”这个词，我通常指的是体积较大的趋势K线
14:56 - 14:58
EN: It’s an acceleration of a move up or down.
ZH: 加速上涨，或者加速下跌
14:58 - 15:01
EN: It’s a relatively extreme change in behavior.
ZH: 是相对极端的行为
15:06 - 15:08
EN: These are all climax bars.
ZH: 这些都是高潮K线
15:08 - 15:09
EN: Relatively big bars.
ZH: 都是体积较大的K线
15:09 - 15:10
EN: Here are Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 绿色的是抢购高潮
15:10 - 15:14
EN: Here’s a 2 bar climax, here’s a 3 bar Buy Climax.
ZH: 这两根阳线，这3根阳线
15:14 - 15:18
EN: Here’s a Buy Climax based more on time
ZH: 这里也是，因为持续的时间很久——
15:18 - 15:21
EN: - 6 or 7 bars up, 5 of them bull bodies.
ZH: 连续上涨了7根K线，其中5根阳线
15:22 - 15:25
EN: And for the bears, a 2 bar Sell Climax,
ZH: 再来看抛售高潮，这两根阴线
15:25 - 15:27
EN: a big bar here, couple follow-through bars.
ZH: 这根大阴线，后面有一些小阴线
15:27 - 15:33
EN: Climax, 2 bar breakout, a 1 bar bear bar,
ZH: 这里的大阴线，还有这根阴线也是抛售高潮， 这里是一个小的抛售高潮
15:31 - 15:33
EN: 1 bar Sell Climax, a small Sell Climax.
ZH: 这里的大阴线，还有这根阴线也是抛售高潮， 这里是一个小的抛售高潮
15:33 - 15:38
EN: A small bear breakout attempt, a small reversal attempt.
ZH: 这根小阴线尝试向下跌破，尝试反转
15:44 - 15:48
EN: Most breakouts, most climaxes, are minor, and they’re just little parts
ZH: 大多数突破，大多数高潮，都是次要的，
15:48 - 15:52
EN: of Trading Ranges or channels, and most are followed by minor trends
ZH: 都只是震荡区间或通道中的一部分
15:52 - 15:55
EN: or minor reversals or simply sideways trading.
ZH: 只能形成小反转，或者进入横盘
15:57 - 16:04
EN: (You can see the video on trading in Trading Ranges and trading
ZH: 在震荡区间和宽通道的课程中， 我讲了看到这样的大阳线、大阴线该如何交易
16:01 - 16:04
EN: in Broad Channels for more information about how to trade this.)
ZH: 在震荡区间和宽通道的课程中， 我讲了看到这样的大阳线、大阴线该如何交易
Slide 010
Time: 16:10
Bilingual Transcript
16:12 - 16:19
EN: Whenever you see a big breakout – for example, a bear breakout in a bear trend
ZH: 每当你看到大的突破—— 比如下降趋势已经持续了至少20根线，再出现大阴线跌破
16:17 - 16:25
EN: after the trend has gone on for 20 or more bars – in other words,
ZH: 每当你看到大的突破—— 比如下降趋势已经持续了至少20根线，再出现大阴线跌破 换句话说——看到下降趋势后期的大阴线， 交易者判断突破是否会成功还是失败
16:20 - 16:25
EN: late in the trend – traders look for evidence
ZH: 换句话说——看到下降趋势后期的大阴线， 交易者判断突破是否会成功还是失败
16:23 - 16:25
EN: of whether the breakout will succeed or fail.
ZH: 换句话说——看到下降趋势后期的大阴线， 交易者判断突破是否会成功还是失败
16:25 - 16:29
EN: If it succeeds, they’re looking at the breakout bar as a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 如果成功，他们会把突破K线看作测量型缺口
16:29 - 16:33
EN: They’re looking for a Measured Move down based upon the height of the range.
ZH: 预期价格会跌到下方的MM目标位——把区间的高度往下翻一倍
16:33 - 16:36
EN: If it’s going to fail, they’re expecting the gap to close.
ZH: 如果认为突破会失败，那么缺口会被回补
16:36 - 16:41
EN: They’re expecting the gap between this close and these lows to fail.
ZH: 他们预期这个收盘价和这些低点之间的缺口会被补掉
16:41 - 16:44
EN: They’re expecting the market to reverse back up above these lows,
ZH: 他们预期市场会反弹到这些低点的上方
16:44 - 16:49
EN: and therefore this bar, a gap attempt is an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 那么这根大阴线制造的缺口，就是竭尽型缺口
16:52 - 16:55
EN: Here we have a bear breakout late in a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势后期的空头突破
16:55 - 16:58
EN: It’s not particularly dramatic, but it is 3 consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 并不是特别剧烈，但是有连续3根阴线
16:58 - 17:01
EN: 2 closing on their lows, and we’re breaking to a new low.
ZH: 其中两根收在最低，并且跌到了新的低点
17:07 - 17:11
EN: You can argue there’s a gap between the close of this bar
ZH: 此时，这根K线的收盘，和前期的低点之间存在缺口
17:10 - 17:11
EN: and the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 此时，这根K线的收盘，和前期的低点之间存在缺口
17:11 - 17:14
EN: That low, this low, that low, those are all gaps.
ZH: 那个低点，这个低点，这些都是缺口
17:15 - 17:22
EN: If this is an exhaustive end of the bear trend, traders expect the market
ZH: 如果它是下降趋势末期的竭尽型缺口， 交易者预期市场会反弹到这些突破点的上方
17:19 - 17:22
EN: to rally above all of those breakout points.
ZH: 交易者预期市场会反弹到这些突破点的上方
17:27 - 17:28
EN: And that’s what happened.
ZH: 这是后续的行情
17:28 - 17:33
EN: The market reversed up, and this series of bear bars
ZH: 市场反转上涨，这一系列的阴线——我称之为竭尽型缺口
17:32 - 17:33
EN: - I call it an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 市场反转上涨，这一系列的阴线——我称之为竭尽型缺口
17:33 - 17:35
EN: You can call it a reversal.
ZH: 你可以简单地称之为反转
17:35 - 17:39
EN: It is a reversal, but the bears were hoping for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 它确实是反转，空头希望跌到下方的MM目标位
17:39 - 17:44
EN: They were hoping that the market would not get back above especially this bar,
ZH: 他们尤其不希望市场反弹到这根K线的上方——震荡区间的底部 （注：空头希望缺口保持开放）
17:43 - 17:48
EN: the bottom of the Trading Range, and instead would fall
ZH: 他们尤其不希望市场反弹到这根K线的上方——震荡区间的底部 （注：空头希望缺口保持开放） 而是希望跌到下方的MM目标位，变成测量型缺口
17:46 - 17:48
EN: for a Measured Move down, become a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 而是希望跌到下方的MM目标位，变成测量型缺口
17:48 - 17:52
EN: But because it went back above that low and back above all these lows,
ZH: 但因为价格回到了那个低点的上方， 回到了所有这些低点的上方
17:52 - 17:59
EN: this bear breakout is a failed bear breakout, and it’s a climactic end
ZH: 空头突破失败了，是下降趋势末尾的抛售高潮 ——我称之为竭尽型缺口
17:56 - 17:59
EN: of the bear trend, and I refer to it as an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 空头突破失败了，是下降趋势末尾的抛售高潮 ——我称之为竭尽型缺口
18:00 - 18:04
EN: And this is a sign that the bears are giving up.
ZH: 这是空头放弃的信号
18:04 - 18:06
EN: A series of bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 一系列阳线收在最高
18:06 - 18:08
EN: When you have 3 decent bull bars like that,
ZH: 当你看到3根不错的阳线时
18:08 - 18:11
EN: the market’s probably Always In Long.
ZH: 现在大概率只能做多了
18:11 - 18:14
EN: Probably going to get at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段上涨
18:17 - 18:21
EN: Now, we’re rallying, and now we’re accelerating upward
ZH: 继续上涨，到了这里，开始加速
18:21 - 18:24
EN: above the top of the range in a strong breakout.
ZH: 强势突破了区间的高点
18:24 - 18:29
EN: However, this is occurring about 20 bars into the bull trend.
ZH: 然而，此时上涨趋势已经持续了大约20根K线
18:29 - 18:36
EN: You have to be thinking that it might be a climactic end
ZH: 必须要考虑到，趋势更有可能衰竭，而不是变得更强
18:32 - 18:36
EN: of the bull trend instead of the beginning of a stronger leg up.
ZH: 必须要考虑到，趋势更有可能衰竭，而不是变得更强
18:36 - 18:40
EN: Right now there’s a gap between the low of this bar and the high of this bar.
ZH: 现在，这根K线的低点和这根K线的高点之间有缺口
18:40 - 18:42
EN: The market might rally for a Measured Move up,
ZH: 市场可能会继续上涨到MM目标位
18:42 - 18:46
EN: from the bottom down here to the gap here.
ZH: 从这里到缺口，往上翻一倍
18:46 - 18:47
EN: It might rally for a Measured Move up,
ZH: 如果涨到MM目标位
18:47 - 18:49
EN: and therefore this would be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 那么它就是测量型缺口
18:49 - 18:56
EN: On the other hand, whenever you get a breakout,
ZH: 然而，如果这样的突破，这样的抢购高潮， 发生在上涨趋势的后期，
18:52 - 19:00
EN: a Buy Climax late in a bull trend, it’s more likely to be
ZH: 然而，如果这样的突破，这样的抢购高潮， 发生在上涨趋势的后期， 更有可能让趋势衰竭，而不是进入新的上涨波段
18:57 - 19:00
EN: an exhaustive end of the trend than the start of a new leg up.
ZH: 更有可能让趋势衰竭，而不是进入新的上涨波段
19:00 - 19:06
EN: When you have a reasonably strong breakout like this,
ZH: 像这样较为强势的突破，通常至少会有小的第2段上涨
19:03 - 19:06
EN: usually the market will have at least a small second leg up,
ZH: 像这样较为强势的突破，通常至少会有小的第2段上涨
19:06 - 19:09
EN: and if it’s going to fail and reverse down,
ZH: 如果想要反转下跌
19:09 - 19:11
EN: usually there’ll be at least a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 至少需要一个小双顶
19:15 - 19:19
EN: At the moment that this bar closes, there’re many different gaps.
ZH: 在这根K线的收盘，产生了很多缺口
19:19 - 19:22
EN: A gap between the close of the bar and any prior high,
ZH: 这根K线的收盘，和任何前期高点之间，
19:22 - 19:26
EN: including the high of the bar right before the breakout began,
ZH: 包括和突破之前这根K线的高点，都有缺口
19:27 - 19:30
EN: and also there’s a gap between the low of this bar
ZH: 还有这根K线的低点——
19:30 - 19:33
EN: - this bar sold off and rallied, so it’s a pullback bar
ZH: 它先下跌，再上涨，所以是一根反弹K线——
19:33 - 19:36
EN: - there’s a gap between its low and the breakout point right here.
ZH: 它的低点和那个突破点之间也有缺口
19:36 - 19:41
EN: So there’s a gap – this low, that high – and it could lead to a Measured Move up
ZH: 缺口——这个低点，那个高点—— 如果是测量型缺口，可以涨到MM目标位
19:41 - 19:46
EN: from the bottom of the bull trend to the breakout point, and possibly up here.
ZH: ——从下降趋势的起涨点，到突破点，往上翻一倍
19:48 - 19:51
EN: Strong enough breakout for at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 足够强势的突破至少会有小的第2段上涨
19:51 - 19:54
EN: We have a second leg up, a channel.
ZH: 确实有，进入上涨通道
19:57 - 20:01
EN: We got a Measured Move up based upon the height of this breakout.
ZH: 涨到了MM目标位——基于这一段突破的高度
20:01 - 20:09
EN: Not a Measured Move up from the bottom of the range, from the bottom
ZH: 并不是基于整个上涨趋势的高度，但这是一个合理的MM目标位
20:05 - 20:09
EN: of the bull trend, but this is one reasonable Measured Move target.
ZH: 并不是基于整个上涨趋势的高度，但这是一个合理的MM目标位
20:10 - 20:13
EN: This particular breakout then became a Measuring Gap,
ZH: 所以这次突破是一个测量型缺口
20:13 - 20:16
EN: even though it occurred 20 or more bars into the bull trend.
ZH: 尽管它出现的时候上涨趋势已经持续了20根K线
20:16 - 20:21
EN: In general if you have a breakout occurring 20 or more bars into a bull trend,
ZH: 通常，如果上涨趋势已经持续了至少20根K线，再出现大的突破
20:21 - 20:26
EN: there’s a 60% chance the breakout will fail – it might get one more push up
ZH: 60%的概率突破会失败——可能再上涨一段，然后反转下跌
20:26 - 20:30
EN: and then fail – and a 40% chance of a Measured Move up.
ZH: 40%的概率可以涨到MM目标位
20:32 - 20:34
EN: This is still fairly early in the trend.
ZH: 这里的突破并不算特别晚
20:34 - 20:38
EN: It’s about 20 bars in, and it’s a reasonably good breakout.
ZH: 大约20多根K线，而且是相当强势的突破
20:38 - 20:42
EN: I don’t know if it’s 60% chance that it’s going to fail.
ZH: 所以失败的概率也许没有60%那么高
20:42 - 20:46
EN: Might be 50/50 that after a small second leg up, it’ll pull back.
ZH: 可能是50%的概率，在小的第2段上涨之后，会开始回调
Slide 011
Time: 20:50
Bilingual Transcript
20:50 - 20:52
EN: Strong bull trend,
ZH: 强上涨趋势
20:57 - 20:59
EN: and now we have a Buy Climax.
ZH: 它是抢购高潮
20:59 - 21:02
EN: We have a strong bull breakout – strong enough for a second leg up?
ZH: 强势的多头突破——会有第2段吗？
21:02 - 21:06
EN: Well, we got a second leg up, and look at these 2 bars.
ZH: 确实有第2段上涨，看看这两根阳线
21:06 - 21:10
EN: They’re the best looking bull bars since the trend began down here.
ZH: 他们是上涨趋势自这里以来最漂亮的大阳线
21:10 - 21:12
EN: Big bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 大阳线收在最高
21:12 - 21:16
EN: Do you think this is an acceleration of the trend and the start of a new leg up,
ZH: 你觉得市场是在加速进入新的上涨趋势呢？
21:16 - 21:20
EN: or do you think more likely it’s an exhaustive end of the trend?
ZH: 还是说趋势更有可能即将衰竭？
21:22 - 21:25
EN: The trend is fairly weak through here,
ZH: 这里之后，趋势变得很弱
21:25 - 21:28
EN: and then we’re in a Tight Trading Range here late in the bull trend.
ZH: 进入了上涨趋势后期的窄震荡区间
21:28 - 21:31
EN: Whenever you have a Tight Trading Range late in a bull trend,
ZH: 每当看到上涨趋势后期的窄震荡区间
21:31 - 21:34
EN: you have to be thinking it might be the final bull flag,
ZH: 你必须考虑它是末端牛旗的可能性
21:34 - 21:37
EN: and if we get a breakout from that final bull flag,
ZH: 向上突破牛旗之后
21:37 - 21:40
EN: the market will reverse back down to that bull flag.
ZH: 市场会下跌回到牛旗这里
21:41 - 21:48
EN: Again, 60% chance when you have an especially strong breakout late
ZH: 同样，上涨趋势后期出现了非常强势的突破， 60%的概率它是竭尽型缺口
21:45 - 21:48
EN: in a bull trend it’s going to be an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 同样，上涨趋势后期出现了非常强势的突破， 60%的概率它是竭尽型缺口
21:48 - 21:51
EN: Once this bar forms and you get a pullback bar here,
ZH: 大阳线收盘，然后回调
21:51 - 21:55
EN: the gap is between its low and the breakout point here.
ZH: 它的低点和这个突破点之间有缺口
21:55 - 21:57
EN: There’s a little bit of overlap maybe here,
ZH: 也许它们的影线之间有重叠 （注：但还有实体缺口）
21:58 - 22:04
EN: but it’s still possibly a Measuring Gap from this low to right here.
ZH: 但仍然可能是测量型缺口（注：涨到MM目标位） 从起涨点到缺口这里往上翻一倍
22:04 - 22:08
EN: And we have another breakout here and another pullback – but look at this bar.
ZH: 再次突破，然后又回调——仔细看这根K线
22:08 - 22:14
EN: Its low fell below the breakout point
ZH: 它的低点跌破了那根阴线的高点，所以这个缺口已经补掉了
22:10 - 22:14
EN: above the high of this bear bar, so it already closed that gap.
ZH: 它的低点跌破了那根阴线的高点，所以这个缺口已经补掉了
22:14 - 22:18
EN: Also, this bar was strong enough to get at least one more leg up.
ZH: 第1根大阳线足够强势，至少有小的第2段上涨
22:18 - 22:19
EN: It met the minimum requirement.
ZH: 这个最低要求已经达到了
22:19 - 22:24
EN: Now we have consecutive breakouts late in the trend, a possible Final Flag.
ZH: 现在它们是趋势后期连续的突破，前面有潜在的末端旗形
22:24 - 22:27
EN: This is probably an exhaustive move.
ZH: 它更有可能是最后一涨
22:27 - 22:32
EN: 60% chance at a minimum we’re going to test down
ZH: 至少60%的概率会下跌测试抢购高潮的起涨点
22:30 - 22:32
EN: to the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 至少60%的概率会下跌测试抢购高潮的起涨点
22:32 - 22:37
EN: When you get a Buy Climax, you should not be thinking
ZH: 当你看到抢购高潮时，你不应该想着市场会进入相反的趋势
22:35 - 22:37
EN: about a reversal into an opposite trend.
ZH: 当你看到抢购高潮时，你不应该想着市场会进入相反的趋势
22:37 - 22:41
EN: You should be thinking about an exhaustive end of the current trend.
ZH: 只不过当前的趋势会衰竭、结束
22:41 - 22:42
EN: The bulls are exhausted.
ZH: 多头已经疲惫
22:42 - 22:44
EN: They’re going to take profits.
ZH: 他们要止盈
22:44 - 22:46
EN: They’ll wait about 10 bars or so to see
ZH: 止盈之后他们会等待10根K线左右
22:46 - 22:48
EN: whether the bears can create a reversal.
ZH: 看空头是否能够制造反转
22:48 - 22:51
EN: If the bears are unable to create a convincing reversal,
ZH: 如果空头没有能力制造强势的反转
22:51 - 22:53
EN: then the bulls will buy again.
ZH: 那么多头就会再次买入
22:54 - 22:59
EN: If the bears get a pretty good leg down,
ZH: 如果空头制造了强势的下跌波段， 那么多头就算买入，也只是剥头皮，押注震荡区间
22:56 - 22:59
EN: when the bulls buy, they’ll bet on a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果空头制造了强势的下跌波段， 那么多头就算买入，也只是剥头皮，押注震荡区间
22:59 - 23:03
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion – probably a Trading Range
ZH: 大涨，大跌，造成困惑——今天剩下的行情大概率是震荡区间
23:02 - 23:07
EN: for the rest of the day, and therefore the bulls buying down here
ZH: 大涨，大跌，造成困惑——今天剩下的行情大概率是震荡区间 所以逢低买入的多头在做剥头皮交易，而不是波段
23:05 - 23:07
EN: are now scalping instead of swing trading.
ZH: 所以逢低买入的多头在做剥头皮交易，而不是波段
23:13 - 23:18
EN: If you see a climactic end of a trend
ZH: 如果你在之前某个价格买入，然后看到潜在的末期高潮， 止盈离场是好的选择
23:15 - 23:18
EN: and you’re long for any reason, it’s good to take profits.
ZH: 如果你在之前某个价格买入，然后看到潜在的末期高潮， 止盈离场是好的选择
23:18 - 23:21
EN: The market is giving you a gift.
ZH: 这是来自市场的馈赠
23:21 - 23:25
EN: It’s an exceptionally big surprise profit, and you should take it
ZH: 很惊喜突然有这么大的利润，你应该接受它
23:25 - 23:31
EN: because whenever the market gives you something that is surprising,
ZH: 因为每次市场给你一些馈赠之后，它通常都会收回去
23:28 - 23:31
EN: it usually is going to take it away.
ZH: 因为每次市场给你一些馈赠之后，它通常都会收回去
23:32 - 23:38
EN: Beginners see this – let’s say a beginner watched the whole trend,
ZH: 当新手看到这个——假设新手目睹了整个趋势， 一直希望有回调
23:37 - 23:38
EN: and hoping for a pullback.
ZH: 当新手看到这个——假设新手目睹了整个趋势， 一直希望有回调
23:38 - 23:42
EN: They got a pullback and they thought it was not very good,
ZH: 回调来了，但感觉不是很好，所以仍然没敢买入
23:41 - 23:42
EN: so they still didn’t buy.
ZH: 回调来了，但感觉不是很好，所以仍然没敢买入
23:42 - 23:43
EN: And now they see this and they think
ZH: 现在他们看到了这个：
23:43 - 23:49
EN: “Oh my gosh, this is becoming a huge bull trend.
ZH: “我靠，正在暴涨啊！我必须得买入了。” 不，恰恰相反
23:46 - 23:49
EN: I’ve got to buy.” No, that’s the exact opposite of what you should be doing.
ZH: “我靠，正在暴涨啊！我必须得买入了。” 不，恰恰相反
23:49 - 23:52
EN: You should never be buying a breakout like this.
ZH: 你绝不应该在这种突破时买入
23:52 - 23:55
EN: It’s much more likely to be an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 这更有可能是趋势衰竭之前最后的上涨，
23:55 - 23:58
EN: than an acceleration up into an even stronger trend.
ZH: 而不是加速进入更强的新趋势
23:59 - 24:01
EN: So the beginner who waited to buy all through here
ZH: 所以那个一直等待回调的新手
24:01 - 24:04
EN: because he didn’t want to buy the breakout, the stop was too far,
ZH: 他不想在突破时追涨，因为止损太远了
24:04 - 24:11
EN: and then he didn’t want to buy here because the trend is weakening
ZH: 他也不想在这里买入，因为趋势在减弱，可能会反转； 现在他看到趋势再次变强
24:08 - 24:11
EN: and might reverse – now he sees the trend getting strong again.
ZH: 他也不想在这里买入，因为趋势在减弱，可能会反转； 现在他看到趋势再次变强
24:11 - 24:12
EN: Do not buy.
ZH: 别买
24:12 - 24:15
EN: This is more likely an exhaustive end of the trend,
ZH: 这更有可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮
24:15 - 24:18
EN: and the strong bulls will take profits and the strong bears will sell,
ZH: 强多头会止盈，强空头会开始做空
24:18 - 24:23
EN: expecting the market to test down to the bottom of the breakout down here.
ZH: 押注市场会回测抢购高潮的起涨点
24:25 - 24:31
EN: Strong traders will sell the reversal down or they’ll sell closes
ZH: 强空头会在反转下跌时卖出，或者卖大阳线的收盘， 或者在这根阴线的高点上方挂限价卖单
24:28 - 24:31
EN: or they’ll sell above this bear bar.
ZH: 强空头会在反转下跌时卖出，或者卖大阳线的收盘， 或者在这根阴线的高点上方挂限价卖单
24:32 - 24:36
EN: Beginners can sell with a stop below this bear bar.
ZH: 新手可以在这根阴线下方用突破单卖出
24:36 - 24:41
EN: We have basically an ioi, and we have a second leg up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 这基本上是一个ioi组合（内-外-内）， 而且有第2段上涨——1，回调，2
24:41 - 24:44
EN: We have a bear reversal attempt here, a bear reversal attempt here,
ZH: 这里尝试反转下跌，还有这里
24:44 - 24:47
EN: and now we have a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 现在出现了收在最低的阴线
24:47 - 24:49
EN: This is a reasonable short.
ZH: 这是一个合理的做空入场点
24:49 - 24:55
EN: Minimum goal is a test of the bottom of the Buy Climax
ZH: 最低目标是测试抢购高潮的起点，然后进入震荡区间
24:53 - 24:55
EN: and transition into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最低目标是测试抢购高潮的起点，然后进入震荡区间
24:59 - 25:06
EN: If a trader prefers higher probability, he can wait to see
ZH: 如果想要更高的胜率，可以等看到3或4根连续的阴线之后， 在阴线的收盘卖出
25:02 - 25:06
EN: 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars and then start to sell closes.
ZH: 如果想要更高的胜率，可以等看到3或4根连续的阴线之后， 在阴线的收盘卖出
25:06 - 25:11
EN: The only problem about selling this close is you’re very close to the target.
ZH: 在它的收盘卖出的问题是，已经离目标很近了
25:12 - 25:14
EN: The market might bounce there.
ZH: 市场随时可能反弹
25:14 - 25:18
EN: After 5 bear bars, if you sold here, the fifth bear bar,
ZH: 连续5根阴线，如果你在第5根阴线的收盘卖出
25:18 - 25:25
EN: chances are the reversal up will be minor – but you still have to rely
ZH: 任何上涨大概率都只是反弹—— 但你必须把初始止损放在这里，而且剩余的利润已经不多了
25:22 - 25:25
EN: on your stop up here, and there might not be much profit left
ZH: 任何上涨大概率都只是反弹—— 但你必须把初始止损放在这里，而且剩余的利润已经不多了
25:25 - 25:29
EN: because strong bears will buy back shorts down here,
ZH: 因为强空头会在这个起涨点止盈
25:29 - 25:34
EN: and strong bulls will start looking to buy
ZH: 如果看到价格开始稳定，强多头也会买入
25:32 - 25:34
EN: if they see the market stabilize around that low.
ZH: 如果看到价格开始稳定，强多头也会买入
25:37 - 25:39
EN: Another opportunity to sell is here.
ZH: 另一个做空的入场点是在这里
25:39 - 25:43
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear breakout, and a Lower High.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破，高点降低
25:43 - 25:46
EN: Tight Bull Channel, so not a strong sell,
ZH: 窄上涨通道，所以第1做空入场点没那么好
25:46 - 25:50
EN: but now you have a second entry sell here – a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 现在出现了第2做空入场点——高点降低的大反转
25:50 - 25:52
EN: You have a small bear body.
ZH: 信号K线是小阴线
25:52 - 25:55
EN: The end of the day, it’s not going to be a major reversal.
ZH: 已经快要收盘，所以不太会是大反转
25:55 - 25:57
EN: It’s probably only going to be a scalp.
ZH: 更有可能是一笔剥头皮的机会
25:57 - 25:59
EN: However, it’s a reasonable scalp.
ZH: 这样的剥头皮交易是合理的
26:04 - 26:11
EN: Some traders like higher probability trades, and they like to wait
ZH: 一些交易者想要更高的胜率， 他们会等到市场明显下跌之后再入场
26:08 - 26:11
EN: until the market is clearly strongly bearish.
ZH: 一些交易者想要更高的胜率， 他们会等到市场明显下跌之后再入场
26:11 - 26:16
EN: So selling the third, fourth, or fifth close, it’s a higher probability trade,
ZH: 所以在第3、第4、第5根阴线的收盘卖出做空，是高胜率的入场点
26:16 - 26:24
EN: but your stop is up here whether or not you sold that close
ZH: 但止损都在这里——不论你是在它的收盘卖出， 还是在它的下方卖出，还是在第5根阴线收盘卖出
26:19 - 26:24
EN: or sold below this bear bar or sold the fifth bear bar.
ZH: 但止损都在这里——不论你是在它的收盘卖出， 还是在它的下方卖出，还是在第5根阴线收盘卖出
26:25 - 26:34
EN: The later you’re selling after you see evidence of a strong bear trend
ZH: 等看到空头强势的证据再入场， 你用更大的风险来换取更高的胜率
26:30 - 26:34
EN: or strong bears, you’re paying for that higher probability with greater risk.
ZH: 等看到空头强势的证据再入场， 你用更大的风险来换取更高的胜率
26:34 - 26:37
EN: You’re selling further from where your stop is.
ZH: 止损的距离变得更远
26:37 - 26:43
EN: And it’s still reasonable to do it, although I personally don’t want
ZH: 这样做仍然是合理的，尽管我个人不想在上涨趋势日中去追空
26:40 - 26:43
EN: to be selling this low down in a bull trend day,
ZH: 这样做仍然是合理的，尽管我个人不想在上涨趋势日中去追空
26:43 - 26:46
EN: especially when I think the target is the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 尤其是我认为做空的目标就是抢购高潮的起涨点
26:46 - 26:49
EN: so there might not be much left to the trade.
ZH: 剩余的利润已经很少了
26:49 - 26:53
EN: However, the probability of making money if you take that short is high.
ZH: 但是在这里做空的胜率是很高的
26:53 - 26:59
EN: It’s higher than the probability selling with a stop
ZH: 比在这根阴线下方卖出，或者在它的收盘价卖出的胜率要更高
26:57 - 26:59
EN: below this bear bar or selling that close.
ZH: 比在这根阴线下方卖出，或者在它的收盘价卖出的胜率要更高
27:00 - 27:02
EN: And that’s always the case.
ZH: 概率和盈亏比总是矛盾的
27:02 - 27:07
EN: All trading is a tradeoff between good risk/reward and probability.
ZH: 所有交易都需要在盈亏比和概率之间做权衡
27:07 - 27:14
EN: If you wait for a higher probability trade, your stop is going to be
ZH: 如果等待更高胜率的机会， 止损就会比较远，所以盈亏比就会变差
27:11 - 27:14
EN: further away, so your risk/reward profile is worse.
ZH: 如果等待更高胜率的机会， 止损就会比较远，所以盈亏比就会变差
27:14 - 27:17
EN: If you sell this close and use a very tight stop,
ZH: 如果在它的收盘卖出，并且用窄止损
27:18 - 27:21
EN: your probability is low, but the risk/reward ratio is good.
ZH: 这样做的胜率低，但盈亏比很好
27:21 - 27:25
EN: You’re risking very little for a big reward relative to your risk.
ZH: 你尝试用很小的风险来换取巨大的利润
27:30 - 27:36
EN: As I said, experienced traders, when they see a big bull bar
ZH: 正如之前所说，经验丰富的交易者 当他们看到上涨趋势后期出现这样的大阳线突破
27:33 - 27:36
EN: breaking out late in a trend like this,
ZH: 当他们看到上涨趋势后期出现这样的大阳线突破
27:36 - 27:39
EN: especially with a potential Final Flag, they’re going to sell.
ZH: 尤其是左边有潜在的末端牛旗，他们会卖出
27:39 - 27:43
EN: They’ll sell that close, and they’ll certainly sell the close
ZH: 他们会在它的收盘卖出，并且肯定会在第2段上涨时继续卖出
27:42 - 27:51
EN: of the second leg up, betting that it’s much more likely an exhaustive end
ZH: 他们会在它的收盘卖出，并且肯定会在第2段上涨时继续卖出 押注趋势更有可能会衰竭， 押注市场会先跌回到这里，而不是先上涨相同的距离
27:46 - 27:51
EN: of the move and the market is more likely to come down here
ZH: 押注趋势更有可能会衰竭， 押注市场会先跌回到这里，而不是先上涨相同的距离
27:49 - 27:51
EN: than go up for the same distance.
ZH: 押注趋势更有可能会衰竭， 押注市场会先跌回到这里，而不是先上涨相同的距离
Slide 012
Time: 27:55
Bilingual Transcript
27:59 - 28:06
EN: Here we have a strong bear bar, and it’s probably the strongest,
ZH: 这里有一根大阴线，可能是整个下降趋势中最大的大阴线， 而且它收在最低
28:02 - 28:06
EN: the biggest looking bear body of this entire trend,
ZH: 这里有一根大阴线，可能是整个下降趋势中最大的大阴线， 而且它收在最低
28:04 - 28:06
EN: plus it’s closing on its low.
ZH: 这里有一根大阴线，可能是整个下降趋势中最大的大阴线， 而且它收在最低
28:06 - 28:13
EN: When you look at this, do you think “wow, the bear trend is accelerating
ZH: 当你看到这个，你是否认为：“哇哦！正在加速下跌， 即将进入更强的下降趋势”？
28:10 - 28:13
EN: and we’re going to get an even stronger bear trend”?
ZH: 当你看到这个，你是否认为：“哇哦！正在加速下跌， 即将进入更强的下降趋势”？
28:13 - 28:17
EN: Or are you thinking “wow, this is about the 15th bar in this bear leg
ZH: 还是认为：“哼，这个下跌波段已经有15根K线，
28:17 - 28:24
EN: and about the 50th bar in this bear trend, and it’s the best looking bear bar
ZH: 而整个下降趋势已经持续了50根K线， 它是过去20根K线中体积最大的大阴线”？
28:21 - 28:24
EN: in the entire past 20 bars or so”?
ZH: 而整个下降趋势已经持续了50根K线， 它是过去20根K线中体积最大的大阴线”？
28:24 - 28:35
EN: Well, there’s a 60% chance it’s an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 60%的概率趋势即将衰竭，会反弹到这个起跌点的上方， 40%的概率会继续下跌到某个MM目标位
28:29 - 28:35
EN: and we’ll trade back above its high and a 40% chance we’re going
ZH: 60%的概率趋势即将衰竭，会反弹到这个起跌点的上方， 40%的概率会继续下跌到某个MM目标位
28:33 - 28:35
EN: to get some kind of a Measured Move down.
ZH: 60%的概率趋势即将衰竭，会反弹到这个起跌点的上方， 40%的概率会继续下跌到某个MM目标位
28:35 - 28:39
EN: Is it a Measuring Gap, maybe from this high down to that gap?
ZH: 是测量型缺口，从这个高点到缺口（往下翻一倍）？
28:39 - 28:44
EN: Or is it an Exhaustion Gap? 60% chance it’s an exhaustive end of the trend.
ZH: 还是竭尽型缺口？60%它是趋势结束前最后的下跌
28:44 - 28:50
EN: Only 40% chance you’re going to get a swing down
ZH: 只有40%的概率，没有反弹而是进入新的波段
28:48 - 28:50
EN: from here without pulling back first.
ZH: 只有40%的概率，没有反弹而是进入新的波段
28:56 - 28:59
EN: It’s really tempting for beginners, when they see this, to say,
ZH: 这对于新手来说很有诱惑力，他们会想：
28:59 - 29:04
EN: “Gosh, I didn’t sell any of this, but now we have an even stronger bear bar.
ZH: “哎，之前没有入场做空， 但现在出现了更强势的阴线，我必须做空了。”
29:02 - 29:07
EN: I’ve got to sell.” It’s tempting to do that,
ZH: “哎，之前没有入场做空， 但现在出现了更强势的阴线，我必须做空了。” 它诱惑你去做空，但你恰恰不应该那样做
29:05 - 29:07
EN: but that’s the exact opposite of what you should be doing.
ZH: 它诱惑你去做空，但你恰恰不应该那样做
29:07 - 29:10
EN: You should realize that the strong bears see this
ZH: 你应该意识到强空头会怎么做：
29:10 - 29:15
EN: and say “Wow, I was not expecting that.
ZH: “哇，超出预期了，感谢市场，我要利用这个机会止盈。
29:12 - 29:15
EN: What a gift.
ZH: “哇，超出预期了，感谢市场，我要利用这个机会止盈。
29:13 - 29:15
EN: I’m going to use it to take profits.
ZH: “哇，超出预期了，感谢市场，我要利用这个机会止盈。
29:15 - 29:21
EN: We’re late in a bear trend and now the market’s giving me a very big bear bar,
ZH: 下降趋势的后期，市场给了我这么大的阴线， 让我能在非常低的价格买入回补”
29:19 - 29:21
EN: allowing me to buy back my shorts at a very low price.”
ZH: 下降趋势的后期，市场给了我这么大的阴线， 让我能在非常低的价格买入回补”
29:21 - 29:30
EN: And when the bulls see that, they’re saying, “Huh, that shouldn’t have happened.
ZH: 当多头看到这个，他们会说：“哼，最后的下跌了， 这是衰竭前的抛售高潮，很快就会反弹，我要买入做多”
29:25 - 29:30
EN: That’s got to be an exhaustive Sell Climax,
ZH: 当多头看到这个，他们会说：“哼，最后的下跌了， 这是衰竭前的抛售高潮，很快就会反弹，我要买入做多”
29:27 - 29:30
EN: and we’re probably going to trade up.
ZH: 当多头看到这个，他们会说：“哼，最后的下跌了， 这是衰竭前的抛售高潮，很快就会反弹，我要买入做多”
29:29 - 29:30
EN: I’m looking to buy.”
ZH: 当多头看到这个，他们会说：“哼，最后的下跌了， 这是衰竭前的抛售高潮，很快就会反弹，我要买入做多”
29:35 - 29:42
EN: A beginner can buy the reversal up here – higher probability
ZH: 新手可以在反转上涨时入场做多， ——这里胜率更高，低点抬高的双低大反转
29:39 - 29:42
EN: to take the Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 新手可以在反转上涨时入场做多， ——这里胜率更高，低点抬高的双低大反转
29:42 - 29:46
EN: We have a bear trend, a bull breakout that lasted about 15 or 20 bars,
ZH: 下降趋势，反弹持续了15~20根K线
29:47 - 29:49
EN: and we have a second entry buy.
ZH: 现在是第2做多入场点
29:49 - 29:53
EN: This channel is very tight, and plus it’s not that many bars down.
ZH: 这个下降通道很窄，而且K线数量不够多
29:53 - 29:57
EN: It’s probably a minor reversal, and this is a second entry buy.
ZH: 所以这里大概率只是小反转； 现在是第2做多入场点
29:57 - 30:00
EN: And now we’re about 20 bars into the correction;
ZH: 横盘了大约20根K线
30:00 - 30:03
EN: this is a higher probability for a swing up into the close.
ZH: 此时开始上涨到收盘的概率变得更高
30:08 - 30:11
EN: Strong bulls, experts, will buy that close,
ZH: 强多头会在它的收盘买入
30:11 - 30:17
EN: betting that we’re probably not going to fall very far
ZH: 押注不会再下跌太多，这很可能就是今天的最低点
30:14 - 30:17
EN: and we might be buying the low of the day.
ZH: 押注不会再下跌太多，这很可能就是今天的最低点
Slide 013
Time: 30:20
Bilingual Transcript
30:22 - 30:27
EN: I want to talk a little bit about the behavior of strong and weak traders.
ZH: 接下来我想讲强、弱交易者在行为上的不同
Slide 014
Time: 30:28
Bilingual Transcript
30:30 - 30:32
EN: Strong bull trend.
ZH: 强上涨趋势
30:36 - 30:40
EN: Now what happens up here? Some bulls did not want to buy.
ZH: 这里发生了什么？一些多头不想买入
30:40 - 30:43
EN: Bad follow-through, tail, dojis.
ZH: 糟糕的跟随，上影线，十字星
30:43 - 30:46
EN: They’re looking at this, it’s not all that strong
ZH: 他们觉得这不够强势，想等待回调再买入
30:45 - 30:46
EN: - if they want to buy a pullback.
ZH: 他们觉得这不够强势，想等待回调再买入
30:46 - 30:51
EN: And they finally have a pullback and they decide, “Well, it’s not that strong.
ZH: 终于等到了回调，但他们决定： “哎，趋势不够强，等出现了强势的信号再买吧。”
30:49 - 30:51
EN: I’ve got to wait for strength before I buy again.”
ZH: 终于等到了回调，但他们决定： “哎，趋势不够强，等出现了强势的信号再买吧。”
30:51 - 30:54
EN: And then they see this big bull bar and another big bull bar.
ZH: 然后他们看到这根大阳线，还有这根大阳线
30:54 - 30:59
EN: Those weak bulls who did not buy down here suddenly decide to buy.
ZH: 之前不敢买入的弱多头，突然决定在这里追涨
30:59 - 31:07
EN: They see extreme strength, and they’re hoping that the trend now
ZH: 他们看到了极端的上涨，并且希望趋势会比之前变得更强； 那是错误的做法
31:03 - 31:07
EN: is going to become much stronger than it was below, and that’s a mistake.
ZH: 他们看到了极端的上涨，并且希望趋势会比之前变得更强； 那是错误的做法
31:07 - 31:11
EN: When you see extreme strength occurring late in a trend,
ZH: 当你看到趋势后期出现极端的大阳线
31:11 - 31:13
EN: it’s more likely the final move.
ZH: 这更有可能是最后的上涨
31:13 - 31:15
EN: It’s more likely an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 趋势更有可能衰竭
31:15 - 31:18
EN: than the start of an even stronger leg up.
ZH: 而不是进入更强的波段
31:21 - 31:25
EN: The weak bulls buy, but the strong bulls have already bought,
ZH: 弱多头在这里追涨，但强多头早就买入了
31:25 - 31:29
EN: and they see this as a great opportunity to sell at a very good price.
ZH: 现在他们把这个当做是高价卖出止盈的好机会
31:29 - 31:32
EN: So the strong bulls are selling, not buying.
ZH: 所以强多头在卖出，而不是买入
31:32 - 31:38
EN: And the weak bears who’ve been selling every reversal,
ZH: 而弱多头希望有反转，一直做空，最终在这里放弃了
31:36 - 31:38
EN: hoping for a bear trend, finally give up.
ZH: 而弱多头希望有反转，一直做空，最终在这里放弃了
31:38 - 31:42
EN: So part of this buying is the weak bears buying back their shorts;
ZH: 所以此时的买盘，一是来自于弱空头买入回补，
31:42 - 31:46
EN: part of it is the weak bulls buying, hoping for a strong trend up.
ZH: 二是来自于弱多头买入追涨，希望进入新的趋势
31:46 - 31:48
EN: But there are not enough weak traders.
ZH: 但弱交易者的钱不足以影响市场
31:48 - 31:49
EN: Most traders are strong.
ZH: 强交易者才可以
31:49 - 31:53
EN: Most traders are institutional, and they’re doing the opposite.
ZH: 大多数成交量来自于机构，他们做相反的事情
31:53 - 31:57
EN: The strong bulls see this and this, they’re taking profits.
ZH: 强多头看到这两根大阳线，他们在止盈
31:57 - 32:00
EN: They’re going to wait 10 bars or more before they look to buy again.
ZH: 然后等待至少10根K线，才会再次买入
32:00 - 32:03
EN: They expect that this is an exhaustive end of the trend.
ZH: 他们预期趋势衰竭、暂停
32:03 - 32:06
EN: And the strong bears see the same thing, and they’re selling.
ZH: 强空头看到了同样的事情，他们也在卖出
Slide 015
Time: 32:10
Bilingual Transcript
32:14 - 32:21
EN: Again, the weak bears who have been selling, selling,
ZH: 然而，那些在上涨途中不断卖出、卖出、卖出、卖出的弱空头， 他们终于无法承受亏损，放弃了
32:17 - 32:21
EN: selling, selling, can’t take it anymore and they give up.
ZH: 然而，那些在上涨途中不断卖出、卖出、卖出、卖出的弱空头， 他们终于无法承受亏损，放弃了
32:21 - 32:22
EN: They buy back their shorts.
ZH: 他们买入回补
32:27 - 32:34
EN: Those weak bears who were selling, selling, selling and finally giving up,
ZH: 那些一直卖出、卖出的弱空头， 他们也知道这很可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮
32:31 - 32:34
EN: they know it might be a climactic end of the trend,
ZH: 那些一直卖出、卖出的弱空头， 他们也知道这很可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮
32:34 - 32:37
EN: but they’re so exhausted and so afraid of losing any more
ZH: 但他们已经崩溃，无法继续承受亏损
32:37 - 32:41
EN: - they’ve lost so much already today – that they just have to get out.
ZH: ——他们今天已经亏了很多钱，不得不放弃
32:42 - 32:48
EN: They’re just afraid that even though the chance
ZH: 他们非常害怕（继续上涨），即使它是测量型缺口的概率最多只有40%
32:44 - 32:48
EN: of it being a Measuring Gap is small, 40% or less,
ZH: 他们非常害怕（继续上涨），即使它是测量型缺口的概率最多只有40%
32:48 - 32:49
EN: they don’t want to take the chance.
ZH: 他们无法再承担这样的风险
32:49 - 32:53
EN: They’ve already lost too much today, so they have to buy back their shorts.
ZH: 他们今天已经亏了太多钱，所以不得不回补他们的空单
33:01 - 33:06
EN: Once the weak bears buy back their shorts,
ZH: 弱空头买入回补之后，他们就不会再次卖出做空了
33:04 - 33:06
EN: they’re not going to be selling again.
ZH: 弱空头买入回补之后，他们就不会再次卖出做空了
33:06 - 33:11
EN: And once the weak bulls finally make the mistake of buying the breakout,
ZH: 同时，弱多头犯了错——在抢购高潮追涨
33:11 - 33:15
EN: who’s left to buy? The strong bulls are not buying up here,
ZH: 还有人会买入吗？ 强多头不会在这里买入
33:15 - 33:18
EN: and the strong bears, are they going to exit their shorts? No.
ZH: 而强空头，他们会在这里放弃吗？不会
33:18 - 33:22
EN: The reason why they’re strong is they’re never going to exit their shorts.
ZH: 他们之所以是强空头，就是因为他们不会轻易放弃 （注：认知强、心态强、账户大）
33:22 - 33:26
EN: They’re going to have stops way up, and they will keep scaling in here.
ZH: 他们的初始止损很远，而且会继续逢高加仓做空
33:26 - 33:29
EN: Who’s left to buy? There’s nobody left to buy.
ZH: 还有谁会买入？没有人会买了
Slide 016
Time: 33:35
Bilingual Transcript
33:36 - 33:38
EN: The strong bulls took the difficult trade.
ZH: 强多头之前做出了艰难的决定
33:38 - 33:40
EN: They bought the breakout early on,
ZH: 他们在反转初期买入
33:40 - 33:42
EN: they bought the High 1 bull flag, the High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 他们在高1牛旗、高2牛旗买入
33:42 - 33:44
EN: They bought closes all the way up.
ZH: 他们一路买收盘
33:45 - 33:48
EN: Their stop is now very far below.
ZH: 现在，他们的止损很远
33:48 - 33:51
EN: When the market is up here, they’re starting to take profits.
ZH: 涨到这里之后，他们开始止盈
33:51 - 33:55
EN: When they see this, they’re thinking, “Wow, that’s a surprise.
ZH: 当他们看到这个，会想：“哇，这是市场给我的惊喜”
33:55 - 33:57
EN: My stop is still down here, maybe down here.
ZH: 多头的保护性止损在这里，或者这里
33:57 - 34:00
EN: It’s much further down than I want it to be.
ZH: 多头其实不想承担这么大的风险
34:00 - 34:03
EN: I want to reduce my risk, so I’m going to take partial or full profits.”
ZH: 所以他们需要减少风险——止盈部分或全部仓位。
34:09 - 34:12
EN: The reason the weak bulls did not buy here? They’re afraid of risk.
ZH: 为什么弱多头不愿意在这里买入？因为他们害怕风险
34:12 - 34:14
EN: All they think about is risk.
ZH: 他们的脑子里面只有风险
34:14 - 34:16
EN: They don’t want to blow their account.
ZH: 他们不想爆仓
34:16 - 34:20
EN: They worked hard to save enough money to try to become a trader,
ZH: 他们辛苦地工作，终于存了足够的钱，尝试成为交易员
34:20 - 34:21
EN: and all they think about is risk.
ZH: 所以过于在乎风险
34:21 - 34:24
EN: They don’t think about reward or probability,
ZH: 他们没有考虑到利润和概率
34:24 - 34:27
EN: and therefore they’re afraid to take the breakout trade.
ZH: 因此不敢在突破时买入
34:27 - 34:29
EN: So they missed the trade.
ZH: 导致最终错过了交易
34:29 - 34:34
EN: And the strong bears see this as a strong breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 强空头知道，在更高的时间周期，市场处于强势突破阶段
34:34 - 34:39
EN: Even though it’s bull bar, bad follow-through, bull, bad follow-through, bull,
ZH: 尽管——大阳线，跟随糟糕；大阳线，跟随糟糕； 大阳线，跟随糟糕；
34:38 - 34:43
EN: bad follow-through, on a higher timeframe chart – for example,
ZH: 尽管——大阳线，跟随糟糕；大阳线，跟随糟糕； 大阳线，跟随糟糕； 但在更高的时间周期，比如—— 这是5分钟图，在15分钟图上，
34:40 - 34:43
EN: this is a 5-minute chart; on a 15-minute chart,
ZH: 但在更高的时间周期，比如—— 这是5分钟图，在15分钟图上，
34:43 - 34:46
EN: it’s a very strong bull breakout – those strong bears are not selling.
ZH: 这是非常强势的多头突破； 所以强空头不会在这里卖出
34:46 - 34:48
EN: They know the market’s going higher.
ZH: 他们知道市场会继续上涨
Slide 017
Time: 34:50
Bilingual Transcript
34:55 - 34:59
EN: When the strong bulls see this, they know it’s the weak bears giving up,
ZH: 当强多头看到这个，他们知道弱空头在放弃，
34:59 - 35:02
EN: and they know that the weak bulls are finally buying.
ZH: 而且会有弱多头在这里追涨
35:02 - 35:06
EN: The bulls who were afraid to buy all the way down here are finally buying.
ZH: 之前一直害怕追涨的弱多头，终于忍不住买入了
35:06 - 35:14
EN: They know there’s nobody left to buy, and therefore this is probably
ZH: 所以强多头知道，接下来没有人再买入了， 因此可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮——止盈的好机会
35:10 - 35:14
EN: a climactic end of the trend – a good time to take profits.
ZH: 所以强多头知道，接下来没有人再买入了， 因此可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮——止盈的好机会
35:18 - 35:19
EN: They take profits.
ZH: 他们卖出止盈
35:19 - 35:21
EN: As soon as this bar closes, they take profits.
ZH: 当这根K线收盘时，他们止盈
35:21 - 35:23
EN: It creates that bear bar.
ZH: 所以造成了这根阴线
35:23 - 35:26
EN: Some bulls wait for a second leg up after this breakout.
ZH: 一些多头预期会有小的第2段上涨
35:26 - 35:27
EN: They take profits.
ZH: 然后卖出止盈
35:27 - 35:34
EN: That creates that bear bar, this bear bar, and then more and more bulls
ZH: 多头止盈，造成了那根阴线、这根阴线， 然后越来越多的多头止盈——与此同时空头也在卖出
35:31 - 35:34
EN: are taking profits – and bears are doing the same thing.
ZH: 多头止盈，造成了那根阴线、这根阴线， 然后越来越多的多头止盈——与此同时空头也在卖出
35:34 - 35:35
EN: They’re selling.
ZH: 空头卖出做空
35:35 - 35:37
EN: They’re selling that close, creates that bear bar.
ZH: 他们在它的收盘卖出，制造了那根阴线
35:37 - 35:39
EN: They’re selling that close, creates that bear bar.
ZH: 他们在它的收盘卖出，制造了这根阴线
35:39 - 35:42
EN: And then more and more traders are selling.
ZH: 于是越来越多的交易者开始卖出
35:42 - 35:46
EN: The remaining bulls sell out and the remaining bears sell in.
ZH: 还没离场的多头赶紧卖出止盈， 还没入场的空头赶紧卖出做空
35:51 - 35:57
EN: A lot of the bulls are holding onto their longs,
ZH: 很多多头一直持有，等待弱空头最终放弃的信号
35:54 - 35:57
EN: waiting for some sign that the final weak bears give up.
ZH: 很多多头一直持有，等待弱空头最终放弃的信号
35:57 - 36:02
EN: And when they see this, they know the bears are giving up
ZH: 看到这个，他们知道弱空头放弃了，于是开始止盈
36:00 - 36:02
EN: and are looking to take profits.
ZH: 看到这个，他们知道弱空头放弃了，于是开始止盈
36:02 - 36:03
EN: The bulls are taking profits.
ZH: 多头正在卖出止盈
36:06 - 36:09
EN: They know the opportunity is probably going to be brief
ZH: 他们知道止盈的机会是短暂的
36:09 - 36:15
EN: because they know that the strong bears are going to look at it
ZH: 因为在强空头的眼中，这是绝佳的高位做空的机会
36:12 - 36:15
EN: as a great opportunity to sell at a high price.
ZH: 因为在强空头的眼中，这是绝佳的高位做空的机会
36:16 - 36:19
EN: A lot of Trading Range trading here, a lot of Trading Range trading here,
ZH: 这里有很多震荡的价格行为， 这里也有很多震荡的价格行为——
36:19 - 36:22
EN: bad follow-through after the bull bars.
ZH: 每根大阳线之后的跟随都不好
36:22 - 36:25
EN: The market is soon probably going to convert into a Trading Range,
ZH: 所以市场很可能马上就要转变成震荡区间
36:25 - 36:29
EN: and this Buy Climax is probably going to be the end of the rally.
ZH: 这个抢购高潮很可能就是最后的上涨
36:29 - 36:34
EN: And therefore, traders will be selling
ZH: 所以交易者想要在未来震荡区间的顶部卖出
36:31 - 36:34
EN: at the top of what might become a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以交易者想要在未来震荡区间的顶部卖出
Slide 018
Time: 36:40
Bilingual Transcript
36:41 - 36:44
EN: If you’re a strong bull and you take your profits here or here,
ZH: 如果你是强多头，你在这里或这里卖出止盈了
36:44 - 36:47
EN: are you going to buy again 2 or 3 bars later? No.
ZH: 你会两三根K线之后就立刻再次买入吗？不会
36:47 - 36:51
EN: If you bought down here and you’re finally taking profits,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，然后一直到这里止盈
36:51 - 36:54
EN: you’re not going to be buying again 2 or 3 bars later.
ZH: 你不会很着急地再次入场
36:54 - 36:56
EN: You’re going to wait at least 10 bars.
ZH: 而是至少会等待10根K线
36:56 - 37:07
EN: You also know that the market is likely to test down to the bottom
ZH: 因为你知道市场大概率会下跌，去测试抢购高潮的起涨点， 所以在这之前你不会买入，而且只有看到了合理的做多机会时，你才会再次入场
36:59 - 37:07
EN: of the most recent Buy Climax, and therefore you’re not going to buy
ZH: 因为你知道市场大概率会下跌，去测试抢购高潮的起涨点， 所以在这之前你不会买入，而且只有看到了合理的做多机会时，你才会再次入场
37:03 - 37:07
EN: until the market gets down there, and only if you get a reasonable buy setup.
ZH: 因为你知道市场大概率会下跌，去测试抢购高潮的起涨点， 所以在这之前你不会买入，而且只有看到了合理的做多机会时，你才会再次入场
37:07 - 37:11
EN: And you probably want to wait for
ZH: 多头会等待至少两段下跌或横盘之后，再考虑买入
37:09 - 37:11
EN: at least a couple legs sideways to down before you buy again.
ZH: 多头会等待至少两段下跌或横盘之后，再考虑买入
37:13 - 37:18
EN: If a strong bull thought the pullback
ZH: 如果强多头认为，回调最多只有一两根K线， 那么他根本就不会在这里离场
37:15 - 37:18
EN: was just going to be a bar or two, he’s not going to exit.
ZH: 如果强多头认为，回调最多只有一两根K线， 那么他根本就不会在这里离场
37:18 - 37:22
EN: He thinks it’s just going to be a little pullback, he’s not going to exit.
ZH: 如果他觉得只是小回调，就没必要离场了，继续持有即可
37:21 - 37:22
EN: He’s going to hold long.
ZH: 如果他觉得只是小回调，就没必要离场了，继续持有即可
37:26 - 37:32
EN: The strong bulls want to see if the bears are going to be able
ZH: 强多头想看看，空头是否能制造强势的反转下跌
37:30 - 37:32
EN: to create a strong reversal down.
ZH: 强多头想看看，空头是否能制造强势的反转下跌
37:33 - 37:36
EN: So they want to wait at least 10 bars or so to see how strong the bears are,
ZH: 所以他们想等待至少10根K线，看看空头有没有反转的能力，
37:36 - 37:40
EN: and if the bears are not all that strong, then the bulls will buy again.
ZH: 如果空头不行，那么多头会再次买入
37:40 - 37:45
EN: But after 10 bars down and a Tight Channel and an exhaustive Buy Climax,
ZH: 但抢购高潮之后，在窄通道中下跌了10根K线
37:45 - 37:51
EN: they suspect the market is going to be in a Trading Range
ZH: 多头怀疑今天接下来市场都会在震荡区间中运行， 尤其是因为这些小K线
37:47 - 37:51
EN: for the rest of the day, especially with all of these small bars here.
ZH: 多头怀疑今天接下来市场都会在震荡区间中运行， 尤其是因为这些小K线
37:51 - 37:54
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion – usually means a Trading Range.
ZH: 大涨、大跌、造成困惑——这通常是震荡区间的特征
37:54 - 37:56
EN: We have a Tight Trading Range here.
ZH: 这里有一个窄区间
37:56 - 37:58
EN: Trading Range price action.
ZH: 震荡的价格行为
Slide 019
Time: 38:00
Bilingual Transcript
38:04 - 38:09
EN: The strong bears know the bulls will see this as an opportunity to take profits
ZH: 强空头知道多头会利用这个机会止盈
38:09 - 38:15
EN: and that the bulls will not buy again for at least 5 or 10 bars
ZH: 而且他们在5~10根K线内，或者至少在测试这个起涨点之前，不会重新买入
38:12 - 38:20
EN: and at least after a test of this low, and therefore it’s a great opportunity
ZH: 而且他们在5~10根K线内，或者至少在测试这个起涨点之前，不会重新买入 所以这是非常好的剥头皮做空机会， 目标是抢购高潮的起涨点
38:17 - 38:20
EN: to sell for a scalp down to that low.
ZH: 所以这是非常好的剥头皮做空机会， 目标是抢购高潮的起涨点
38:26 - 38:29
EN: They’re doing the exact same thing that the bulls are doing.
ZH: 此时空头和多头在做完全一样的事情
38:29 - 38:34
EN: The bulls are selling to take profits; the bears are selling to get short.
ZH: 多头在卖出止盈；空头在卖出做空
38:38 - 38:42
EN: Initial target: the bottom of the most recent Buy Climax right down here,
ZH: 初始目标：这个抢购高潮的起涨点
38:42 - 38:46
EN: and the bulls and bears both know a Trading Range is likely.
ZH: 并且双方都知道有可能会进入震荡区间
38:46 - 38:50
EN: This is a good location for the bears to take profits on these shorts.
ZH: 对于空头来说，在这里止盈是非常好的
38:50 - 38:57
EN: Tight Channel.
ZH: 窄下降通道，多头不会直接买入； 止跌、横盘了一会儿之后，多头会在这里买入
38:51 - 38:57
EN: The bulls probably will not buy until we go sideways a little bit,
ZH: 窄下降通道，多头不会直接买入； 止跌、横盘了一会儿之后，多头会在这里买入
38:55 - 38:57
EN: and then they’ll buy here.
ZH: 窄下降通道，多头不会直接买入； 止跌、横盘了一会儿之后，多头会在这里买入
38:57 - 38:59
EN: A small Double Bottom – this low, that low
ZH: 小双底——这个低点，那个低点
38:59 - 39:02
EN: - above that bull bar first entry, above this bull bar second entry.
ZH: 这根阳线上方是第1入场点，这根阳线上方是第2入场点
39:02 - 39:05
EN: But they’re only looking for a scalp up at this point.
ZH: 但这里多头只是预期做一笔剥头皮交易
39:05 - 39:08
EN: A lot of small sideways bars, a lot of doji bars.
ZH: 很多小的横盘K线，很多十字星
39:08 - 39:12
EN: The market’s probably going to be sideways for the rest of the day.
ZH: 市场接下来大概率就是横盘震荡了
39:20 - 39:23
EN: Now, some strong bears started selling here.
ZH: 一些强空头在这里就开始做空了
39:23 - 39:25
EN: Maybe they started selling here.
ZH: 甚至假设他们在这里就做空了
39:25 - 39:30
EN: In any case, by definition a strong bear
ZH: 无论如何，根据强空头的定义， 他们不会轻易地被迫回补空单
39:27 - 39:30
EN: is not going to be forced to buy back his shorts.
ZH: 无论如何，根据强空头的定义， 他们不会轻易地被迫回补空单
39:30 - 39:31
EN: Only rarely.
ZH: 极少数情况会
39:31 - 39:33
EN: He’s looking to short.
ZH: 他们会一直做空
39:33 - 39:34
EN: He’s going to look to sell higher.
ZH: 他们会在更高的价格加仓
39:34 - 39:38
EN: Not many bears are selling here, but they’re definitely selling here,
ZH: 很少有强空头在这里卖出，但肯定会在抢购高潮卖出
39:38 - 39:44
EN: and these bears, they’re going to need to see a really strong rally
ZH: 除非看到真正强势的上涨，否则这些空头不会离场的
39:43 - 39:44
EN: for them to get out of their shorts.
ZH: 除非看到真正强势的上涨，否则这些空头不会离场的
39:44 - 39:49
EN: They’ll look at any rally as an opportunity
ZH: 对他们而言，任何的上涨都是加仓做空的好机会 （注：比如NVDA，越下跌，越是买入的好机会；只不过这里是反过来）
39:47 - 39:49
EN: to sell more at an even better price.
ZH: 对他们而言，任何的上涨都是加仓做空的好机会 （注：比如NVDA，越下跌，越是买入的好机会；只不过这里是反过来）
Slide 020
Time: 39:55
Bilingual Transcript
39:59 - 40:04
EN: Will the strong bulls keep buying, trying to force the strong bears out? No.
ZH: 强多头会不会继续买入，尝试逼迫那些空头止损离场？ 不会
40:04 - 40:07
EN: They know the market’s too expensive now.
ZH: 他们知道现在的价格太高了
40:07 - 40:09
EN: They see a lot of Trading Range price action.
ZH: 他们看到了很多震荡的价格行为
40:09 - 40:11
EN: They see a rally with a lot of Trading Range price action.
ZH: 正因为这个上涨趋势中有很多震荡的价格行为
40:11 - 40:14
EN: They know the market’s probably entering a Trading Range,
ZH: 所以市场很可能会进入震荡区间
40:14 - 40:17
EN: and the bears know that as well, and the bears are going to sell more higher.
ZH: 空头也知道这一点，所以空头会逢高卖出更多
40:17 - 40:23
EN: And therefore, the bulls are not going to be buying up here,
ZH: 因此多头不会在这里去尝试轧空 （注：轧空，大量买入，价格上涨，逼迫空头大亏止损）
40:20 - 40:23
EN: trying to force those strong bears to give up,
ZH: 因此多头不会在这里去尝试轧空 （注：轧空，大量买入，价格上涨，逼迫空头大亏止损）
40:23 - 40:26
EN: because they know they’re going to fail.
ZH: 因为多头知道轧空不会成功
40:26 - 40:33
EN: They know too many other bulls are going to be taking profits
ZH: 有太多其它的多头会止盈，没有足够多的人在这里买入， 那么价格就无法继续上涨
40:28 - 40:33
EN: and there will not be enough strong bulls buying up here
ZH: 有太多其它的多头会止盈，没有足够多的人在这里买入， 那么价格就无法继续上涨
40:31 - 40:33
EN: to make the market go higher.
ZH: 有太多其它的多头会止盈，没有足够多的人在这里买入， 那么价格就无法继续上涨
40:37 - 40:42
EN: Too many bulls eager to take profits, not enough bulls wanting to buy,
ZH: 太多多头急于止盈，没有足够多的多头愿意追涨， 同时太多空头在卖出做空
40:40 - 40:42
EN: too many bears wanting to sell.
ZH: 太多多头急于止盈，没有足够多的多头愿意追涨， 同时太多空头在卖出做空
Slide 021
Time: 40:45
Bilingual Transcript
40:51 - 40:58
EN: My general rule after a Buy Climax is the bulls will wait about 10 bars
ZH: 在抢购高潮之后，我的通用法则是： 多头等待大约10根K线、两段下跌或横盘之后，才会再次买入
40:56 - 40:58
EN: and two legs sideways to down before buying again.
ZH: 在抢购高潮之后，我的通用法则是： 多头等待大约10根K线、两段下跌或横盘之后，才会再次买入
40:58 - 41:03
EN: They want to see if the bears are strong enough to create a strong bear trend.
ZH: 他们想看看空头是否有能力制造强势的下降趋势
41:03 - 41:05
EN: If they are, the bulls do not want to buy.
ZH: 如果是，那么多头不会买入
41:05 - 41:08
EN: However, if the bears are not particularly strong
ZH: 然而，如果空头并没有很强壮
41:08 - 41:10
EN: - and they were not particularly strong here
ZH: ——比如这里，就不是特别强
41:10 - 41:12
EN: - then they’ll look to buy for a scalp back up.
ZH: 那么多头就会买入（至少）做一笔剥头皮交易
41:20 - 41:22
EN: Overbought market, Buy Climax.
ZH: 超买，抢购高潮
41:22 - 41:26
EN: They know the breakout is going to attract strong bears,
ZH: 多头知道这种大阳线会吸引强空头卖出
41:26 - 41:31
EN: and therefore they expect the market is going to have
ZH: 所以预期市场很难再有多少上涨了
41:29 - 41:31
EN: a hard time going much higher.
ZH: 所以预期市场很难再有多少上涨了
41:31 - 41:34
EN: They’re going to switch to looking to buy value.
ZH: 多头会开始切换到逢低买入的模式
41:34 - 41:38
EN: Instead of buying a breakout, betting on continued momentum,
ZH: 不再追涨，不再押注动能
41:38 - 41:40
EN: they’re now only willing to buy value.
ZH: 而是回归价值，逢低买入
41:40 - 41:41
EN: They want a pullback.
ZH: 他们想要回调
41:41 - 41:42
EN: They want to buy cheap.
ZH: 他们想在低价买入
41:47 - 41:50
EN: Market pulling back, the bears unable to get a strong reversal.
ZH: 市场回调，空头无法制造强势的反转
41:50 - 41:53
EN: We’re in the neighborhood of the bottom of the Buy Climax, in the neighborhood
ZH: 现在价格处于抢购高潮起涨点的附近，
41:53 - 41:56
EN: of this Tight Trading Range where the market went sideways earlier.
ZH: 处于之前这个窄震荡区间附近
41:57 - 41:59
EN: The bulls will begin to look to buy.
ZH: 多头开始寻找买入的机会
41:59 - 42:00
EN: Very Tight Channel.
ZH: 下降通道很窄
42:00 - 42:03
EN: They’ll wait for a second entry buy, like above this bar or above that bar.
ZH: 多头会等待第2入场点，比如在这根K线上方，或那根K线上方
Slide 022
Time: 42:08
Bilingual Transcript
42:08 - 42:16
EN: I began by talking about how a weak breakout usually means
ZH: 这节课我先讲了：弱突破通常意味着市场不会进入趋势， 而是会很快进入震荡区间
42:12 - 42:16
EN: that instead of a trend, the market will soon transition into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这节课我先讲了：弱突破通常意味着市场不会进入趋势， 而是会很快进入震荡区间
42:17 - 42:25
EN: I then talked about how breakouts can succeed and lead to Measured Moves,
ZH: 然后我讲了：成功的突破会去到MM目标位，成为测量型缺口； 而失败的突破变成竭尽型缺口
42:21 - 42:25
EN: becoming Measuring Gaps, or fail and become Exhaustion Gaps.
ZH: 然后我讲了：成功的突破会去到MM目标位，成为测量型缺口； 而失败的突破变成竭尽型缺口
42:25 - 42:30
EN: And finally, I talked about how weak and strong traders behave with breakouts.
ZH: 最后，我分析了强、弱交易者在面对突破时分别会做出什么行为
42:34 - 42:35
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
42:35 - 42:37
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
42:37 - 42:41
EN: This is the first of three videos on trading climactic reversals.
ZH: 如何交易高潮反转的第1节课，就先讲到这里