al-brooks-course
47B - Trading in Trading Ranges
Raw transcript and slide notes for 47B - Trading in Trading Ranges.
Overview
- Slides: 18
- Transcript segments: 464
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 这是如何交易震荡区间的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:19
EN: I want to begin by talking about my 80% rule,
ZH: 我想先谈谈我的80%法则——市场具有惯性
00:17 - 00:19
EN: and that is that the market has inertia.
ZH: 我想先谈谈我的80%法则——市场具有惯性
00:19 - 00:32
EN: 80% of the time when it’s in a trend and it tries to reverse,
ZH: 当市场处于趋势，80%反转的尝试会失败； 当市场处于震荡区间，80%突破的尝试会失败
00:23 - 00:32
EN: the reversal will fail, and 80% of the time when the market’s in a Trading Range
ZH: 当市场处于趋势，80%反转的尝试会失败； 当市场处于震荡区间，80%突破的尝试会失败
00:29 - 00:32
EN: and it tries to break out, the breakout will fail and reverse.
ZH: 当市场处于趋势，80%反转的尝试会失败； 当市场处于震荡区间，80%突破的尝试会失败
00:34 - 00:39
EN: There are characteristics that distinguish legs within a trend from legs
ZH: 趋势中的波段，和震荡区间中的波段，是有一些区别的
00:39 - 00:42
EN: within a Trading Range, and I want to talk about some of those characteristics.
ZH: 我想讲一讲它们各自的特征
00:42 - 00:50
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, traders want to buy
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，交易者想在下半部分买入， 在上半部分卖出
00:47 - 00:50
EN: in the bottom half and sell in the top half.
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，交易者想在下半部分买入， 在上半部分卖出
00:54 - 00:57
EN: The market is in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场处于震荡区间
00:57 - 00:58
EN: There’s a smaller range.
ZH: 这里是一个比较小的区间
00:58 - 01:01
EN: The whole thing is a Trading Range by the end here.
ZH: 整个是一个大区间，一直到这里
Slide 002
Time: 01:05
Bilingual Transcript
01:07 - 01:11
EN: I talked about how markets have inertia, and that means
ZH: 我谈到了市场具有惯性，
01:11 - 01:14
EN: they are resistant to change, and they tend to continue what they’ve been doing.
ZH: 市场抗拒变化，倾向于继续当前的行为
01:15 - 01:22
EN: In a Trading Range, 80% of the time the market
ZH: 在震荡区间中，看起来非常强势的突破，不管是上涨还是下跌
01:18 - 01:22
EN: will have breakout attempts that are strong, up and down,
ZH: 在震荡区间中，看起来非常强势的突破，不管是上涨还是下跌
01:22 - 01:25
EN: and they’ll fail and lead to reversals
ZH: 80%都会失败并反转
01:25 - 01:27
EN: instead of a successful breakout into a trend.
ZH: 而不是成功地突破进入趋势
01:32 - 01:36
EN: We have a strong reversal down, but it stops after a bar or two.
ZH: 强势的反转下跌，但一两根K线后就停止了
01:36 - 01:39
EN: Pretty strong reversal up, it stops after 2 or 3 bars.
ZH: 强势的反转上涨，两三根K线后就停止了
01:39 - 01:42
EN: 3 consecutive bear bars, the market reverses up.
ZH: 连续3根阴线，市场反转上涨
01:46 - 01:49
EN: That lack of consecutive strong trend bars
ZH: 没有连续的强趋势K线
01:49 - 01:52
EN: - here, a lack of consecutive strong bull bars.
ZH: ——这里，没有连续的大阳线
01:52 - 01:54
EN: Here, a lack of consecutive strong bear bars.
ZH: 这里，没有连续的大阴线
01:54 - 01:59
EN: Here, we have a couple bear bars, but a tail, and then we have a doji bar
ZH: 这里有两根阴线，但它有下影线，然后是一个十字星
01:59 - 02:02
EN: and then a bear bar and then a bull bar.
ZH: 然后是阴线、大阳线
02:02 - 02:04
EN: We have a couple bear bars and then a bull bar.
ZH: 之前这里有两根阴线，然后大阳线
02:04 - 02:12
EN: That lack of consecutive strong bear bars is much more common
ZH: 震荡区间中的下跌波段，往往都缺乏连续的大阴线
02:09 - 02:12
EN: when the market is in a bear leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 震荡区间中的下跌波段，往往都缺乏连续的大阴线
02:12 - 02:15
EN: or in a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 区间中的上涨波段也是一样
02:15 - 02:17
EN: The bulls have a good bar here, but a doji here.
ZH: 这根阳线很强势，但后面是十字星
02:17 - 02:19
EN: A bull bar here, a doji here.
ZH: 阳线，十字星
02:19 - 02:23
EN: A good bull bar here, but then a follow-through bar with a tail on top,
ZH: 这跟大阳线很漂亮，但后面一根阳线的上影线很长
02:23 - 02:27
EN: and then we have a Micro Double Top here at a prior high.
ZH: 然后在前期高点附近形成了一个小双顶
02:31 - 02:35
EN: Whenever there is a good trend bar, the follow-through tends to be bad.
ZH: 在强势的趋势K线之后，跟随K线往往不是很好
02:35 - 02:36
EN: Big bull bar and then a doji bar.
ZH: 大阳线，然后是一个十字星
02:36 - 02:38
EN: Big bull bar, a doji bar.
ZH: 大阳线，十字星
02:38 - 02:40
EN: Big bull bar, a bear doji.
ZH: 大阳线，十字星
02:40 - 02:45
EN: A pair of bear bars, and then a tail below and a doji bar here.
ZH: 两根阴线，但它有下影线，然后是十字星
02:51 - 02:57
EN: The market breaks below a major low, like here, but it reverses up.
ZH: 市场略微跌破前期重要的低点，但很快反转上涨
02:57 - 02:59
EN: Here it breaks above a prior high.
ZH: 这里突破了前期的高点
02:59 - 03:00
EN: Good breakout.
ZH: 看起来很不错
03:00 - 03:01
EN: It reverses down.
ZH: 但反转下跌
03:01 - 03:03
EN: Breaks out above a high, reverses down.
ZH: 突破前期高点，反转下跌
03:03 - 03:06
EN: So bad follow-through on breakouts.
ZH: 突破之后的跟随不好
03:06 - 03:08
EN: That’s another characteristic of Trading Ranges.
ZH: 这是震荡区间的另一个特征
03:08 - 03:20
EN: So, if you see legs up and down and they break out
ZH: 如果你看到价格在突破前期高低点之后很快就反转， 说明那更有可能是震荡区间，而不是趋势
03:12 - 03:20
EN: above highs and lows but reverse, that is a sign that the market
ZH: 如果你看到价格在突破前期高低点之后很快就反转， 说明那更有可能是震荡区间，而不是趋势
03:16 - 03:20
EN: is probably in a leg in a Trading Range and not in a trend.
ZH: 如果你看到价格在突破前期高低点之后很快就反转， 说明那更有可能是震荡区间，而不是趋势
Slide 003
Time: 03:25
Bilingual Transcript
03:29 - 03:33
EN: When the market’s rallying, I pay a lot of attention to whether
ZH: 在市场上涨的时候，我非常关注空头能不能赚到钱
03:32 - 03:33
EN: or not the bears can make money.
ZH: 在市场上涨的时候，我非常关注空头能不能赚到钱
03:33 - 03:40
EN: If the bears can make money selling at a prior high or selling at a prior high
ZH: 如果空头在前期高点挂单做空并在上方加仓， 这样做可以赚钱的话，
03:38 - 03:48
EN: and scaling in, then the market is probably in a bull leg in what
ZH: 如果空头在前期高点挂单做空并在上方加仓， 这样做可以赚钱的话， 那么这个上涨波段更有可能会变成震荡区间， 而不是变成趋势
03:43 - 03:48
EN: will become a Trading Range and not a bull leg that is becoming a bull trend.
ZH: 那么这个上涨波段更有可能会变成震荡区间， 而不是变成趋势
03:52 - 03:57
EN: Here, if the bears sold above this High 1 bull flag – we have a rally,
ZH: 这里，如果空头在这个高1牛旗上方做空
03:57 - 04:02
EN: a pullback – if the bears can make money selling breakouts of bull flags,
ZH: 上涨，回调，如果空头在牛旗上方做空能赚钱
04:02 - 04:05
EN: High 1 and High 2 bull flags, that’s a problem.
ZH: 高1和高2牛旗——那就有问题了
04:05 - 04:07
EN: That’s a sign that the bulls are not all that strong.
ZH: 这说明多头并不是那么强壮
04:10 - 04:14
EN: The bears who sold at the high of this bear bar, a High 1 bull flag,
ZH: 如果空头在这根阴线的高点挂单做空，押注高1失败，
04:14 - 04:20
EN: made money, and that should not happen, or it should not happen often,
ZH: 他们赚到了钱——如果这真的是上涨趋势的初期， 这种事不应该发生，至少不应该经常发生
04:18 - 04:20
EN: if this is the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 他们赚到了钱——如果这真的是上涨趋势的初期， 这种事不应该发生，至少不应该经常发生
04:20 - 04:24
EN: The bulls have a Double Bottom and they’re trying to reverse up.
ZH: 双底，多头尝试制造反转上涨
04:24 - 04:26
EN: Is this going to be the start of a bull trend
ZH: 这会是上涨趋势的开始吗？
04:26 - 04:29
EN: or is this going to be a bull leg in a Trading Range?
ZH: 还是说，这只是震荡区间中的一个上涨波段？
04:29 - 04:33
EN: The rally can last 2 or 3 hours.
ZH: 上涨持续了几个小时——30、40、50根K线
04:31 - 04:33
EN: 30, 40, 50 bars.
ZH: 上涨持续了几个小时——30、40、50根K线
04:33 - 04:40
EN: However, it’s still more likely going to be a leg in what
ZH: 然而，它仍然更有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而不是上涨趋势中的上涨波段
04:36 - 04:40
EN: will become a Trading Range and not the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 然而，它仍然更有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而不是上涨趋势中的上涨波段
04:43 - 04:47
EN: Can bears sell at a prior high and make money?
ZH: 空头在前期高点挂单卖出，能赚到钱吗？
04:47 - 04:48
EN: Here they could.
ZH: 这里可以
04:48 - 04:52
EN: They sell at that high and the market fell far enough for them to make a profit.
ZH: 他们在那个高点挂单卖出，回调幅度足够大，空头可以赚钱
04:55 - 04:59
EN: Can they sell a reversal down from a prior high and make money?
ZH: 从前期高点反转下跌的时候入场做空，能赚到钱吗？
04:59 - 05:00
EN: Yes, they could.
ZH: 可以
05:02 - 05:03
EN: These bears made money.
ZH: 这些空头赚钱了
05:03 - 05:06
EN: They got out here, and the same thing here.
ZH: 他们在这里止盈； 那里也是一样
05:06 - 05:09
EN: Bears selling at this high, bears selling on the reversal down.
ZH: 空头在前期高点挂限价卖单， 或者在反转下跌时用突破卖单入场
05:10 - 05:12
EN: The market fell far enough for the bears to make money.
ZH: 市场下跌得足够多，空头可以赚到钱
05:15 - 05:22
EN: Bears selling at this high using a wide stop
ZH: 空头在这个高点挂单卖出，使用宽止损并加仓， 他们也赚到钱了
05:18 - 05:22
EN: and scaling in, they made money as well.
ZH: 空头在这个高点挂单卖出，使用宽止损并加仓， 他们也赚到钱了
05:22 - 05:24
EN: They sell more higher.
ZH: 他们在上方加仓做空
05:25 - 05:29
EN: They can sell more either at a fixed number of points above,
ZH: 一些人会在固定的距离加仓，
05:29 - 05:32
EN: they can sell more above a bad bull flag, above this bear bar,
ZH: 一些人在牛旗上方加仓——在这个阴线的高点挂限价卖单
05:32 - 05:35
EN: or they can sell on a reversal down.
ZH: 一些人在反转下跌时用突破卖单加仓
05:35 - 05:37
EN: Many different ways to scale in higher.
ZH: 有很多种加仓的方式
05:43 - 05:50
EN: Then they get out at their first entry price, breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 然后他们在初始入场价格平仓， 初始仓位打平，上方加仓的部分赚钱
05:48 - 05:50
EN: and then with a profit on their higher entry.
ZH: 然后他们在初始入场价格平仓， 初始仓位打平，上方加仓的部分赚钱
05:53 - 05:54
EN: Same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
05:54 - 06:01
EN: Sell at that high, scale in higher, and the market fell back
ZH: 在那个高点挂单做空，在更高的价格加仓，
06:01 - 06:03
EN: to their original entry price and they could make money.
ZH: 等市场跌回到初始入场价格，他们就可以赚钱
06:05 - 06:10
EN: Obviously if they sell and the market immediately goes down,
ZH: 当然，如果开仓做空之后市场立刻下跌，那就不需要加仓了
06:08 - 06:10
EN: there’s no need to scale in higher,
ZH: 当然，如果开仓做空之后市场立刻下跌，那就不需要加仓了
06:10 - 06:13
EN: but sometimes they sell and the market goes up higher.
ZH: 但有时开仓做空之后市场会继续上涨
06:13 - 06:17
EN: But because the bears have been making money selling
ZH: 因为一路上逢高做空的空头一直在赚钱，
06:16 - 06:24
EN: above bars repeatedly through here, the bears are confident
ZH: 因为一路上逢高做空的空头一直在赚钱， 所以他们相信，如果在这个高点挂单做空， 使用宽止损并加仓，仍然可以赚到钱
06:19 - 06:24
EN: that they’ll make money selling at this high as well
ZH: 所以他们相信，如果在这个高点挂单做空， 使用宽止损并加仓，仍然可以赚到钱
06:22 - 06:24
EN: if they use a wide stop and scale in higher.
ZH: 所以他们相信，如果在这个高点挂单做空， 使用宽止损并加仓，仍然可以赚到钱
06:25 - 06:28
EN: Because the market fell back below the breakout point,
ZH: 因为价格跌回到了突破点的下方
06:28 - 06:35
EN: as it did for all of these breakouts – it kept pulling back
ZH: 就像之前每次突破之后一样——都回调到突破点的下方， 所以这是阶梯式上涨
06:31 - 06:35
EN: below the breakout point – that is a stairs type pattern,
ZH: 就像之前每次突破之后一样——都回调到突破点的下方， 所以这是阶梯式上涨
06:35 - 06:40
EN: and that’s more common in a bull trend
ZH: 这样的上涨趋势往往很快就会变成震荡区间
06:37 - 06:40
EN: that will soon evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这样的上涨趋势往往很快就会变成震荡区间
Slide 004
Time: 06:45
Bilingual Transcript
06:48 - 06:51
EN: The opposite’s true of a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势也是一样
06:51 - 07:01
EN: If the bulls can make money repeatedly buying below bars, scaling in,
ZH: 如果多头在前期低点挂单做多并逢低加仓， 或者在反转上涨时买入做多，一直能赚钱的话， 那么它更有可能只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
06:56 - 07:01
EN: buying reversals up, then the leg down is probably a leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时买入做多，一直能赚钱的话， 那么它更有可能只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
07:01 - 07:03
EN: and not the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 而不是下降趋势的开始
07:05 - 07:08
EN: For example, if bulls placed a limit order to buy at this low,
ZH: 例如，如果多头在这个低点挂限价买单
07:08 - 07:13
EN: betting against a successful breakout, and they can make money buying there,
ZH: 押注向下跌破失败，他们在这里买入能赚到钱
07:14 - 07:20
EN: then that makes it less likely that this is going to lead to a big bear trend.
ZH: 那么它就不太可能是一个大的下降趋势
07:20 - 07:21
EN: Here they bought that low.
ZH: 他们在前期低点挂单买入
07:21 - 07:23
EN: It rallied a point.
ZH: 市场反弹超过1个点
07:23 - 07:25
EN: They could exit with a 1 point profit.
ZH: 多头可以赚到1个点的剥头皮
07:26 - 07:27
EN: Same thing there.
ZH: 这里也是一样
07:27 - 07:28
EN: They buy at the new low.
ZH: 多头在前期低点挂单买入
07:30 - 07:32
EN: Here they had to scale in lower.
ZH: 这里他们需要在下方加仓
07:32 - 07:34
EN: It went back to their original entry price.
ZH: 市场回到了他们的初始入场价格
07:34 - 07:37
EN: They could get out with a 1 point profit on their second entry
ZH: 那么加仓的部分就能赚到1个点
07:37 - 07:42
EN: and get out breakeven on their first entry.
ZH: 初始仓位打平——在这里买入，在同样的价格离场
07:39 - 07:42
EN: They bought here and then they get out there breakeven.
ZH: 初始仓位打平——在这里买入，在同样的价格离场
07:52 - 07:55
EN: Let’s say a bull bought below this bar.
ZH: 假设一个多头在这根阳线的低点挂限价买单
07:55 - 07:59
EN: For the bears, it’s a bear channel, a bear trend, and it’s a Low 1 bear flag.
ZH: 对于空头来说，这是下降通道、下降趋势， 这根阳线的下方是低1入场点
07:59 - 08:03
EN: But it’s a bull body and it’s after a bull bar here.
ZH: 但它是一根阳线，前面也是一根阳线
08:03 - 08:05
EN: It’s probably not a very good Low 1 bear flag,
ZH: 所以这个低1做空入场点并不好
08:05 - 08:11
EN: and therefore some bulls would buy with a limit order
ZH: 因此多头会在它的低点挂限价买单，然后赚快钱离场
08:08 - 08:11
EN: at the low of that bull bar, and then they’ll scalp out.
ZH: 因此多头会在它的低点挂限价买单，然后赚快钱离场
08:11 - 08:18
EN: Again, bulls making money in a bear trend, the bear trend
ZH: 多头能在下降趋势中赚钱，说明市场很快就会进入震荡区间
08:13 - 08:18
EN: is probably a bear leg in what will end up as a Trading Range.
ZH: 多头能在下降趋势中赚钱，说明市场很快就会进入震荡区间
08:23 - 08:24
EN: Also buying a reversal up.
ZH: 在反转上涨时买入也能赚钱
08:24 - 08:27
EN: We broke below this low, we broke below that low,
ZH: 跌破了这个低点，跌破了那个低点
08:27 - 08:30
EN: and we’re getting a reversal and a second reversal up,
ZH: 第1次反转，第2次反转
08:30 - 08:34
EN: and the bulls made money buying above that reversal bar.
ZH: 在它的上方买入，多头赚到了钱
Slide 005
Time: 08:35
Bilingual Transcript
08:40 - 08:45
EN: In Trading Ranges, a lot of the probabilities gravitate toward 50%.
ZH: 在震荡区间中，概率趋向于50%
08:45 - 08:53
EN: Setups that would normally be high probability in a trend,
ZH: 在趋势中高胜率（60%）的交易机会， 在震荡区间中就只有50%
08:49 - 08:53
EN: like a 60% setup, are closer to 50% in a Trading Range.
ZH: 在趋势中高胜率（60%）的交易机会， 在震荡区间中就只有50%
08:53 - 09:01
EN: Setups that are typically low probability in a trend,
ZH: 在趋势中低胜率（40%）的交易机会， 在区间中也变成了50%左右
08:57 - 09:01
EN: like a 40% setup are also closer to 50%.
ZH: 在趋势中低胜率（40%）的交易机会， 在区间中也变成了50%左右
09:04 - 09:08
EN: When lower probability outcomes happen more than what you’d expect,
ZH: 如果低概率事件发生的频率比预期更高
09:09 - 09:13
EN: then you have to assume the market’s probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么你就必须假设市场很可能处于震荡区间
09:20 - 09:24
EN: The first reversal down after a strong breakout to a new high.
ZH: 强势突破创新高之后，第1次反转下跌
09:24 - 09:27
EN: Probably buyers below the low of the bar.
ZH: 在这根K线下方大概率有很多买盘
09:28 - 09:34
EN: I’m not going to be buying at the low of a strong bear bar
ZH: 突破之后，如果有大阴线收在最低， 通常我不会在这里买入，因为有太多这样的陷阱
09:31 - 09:34
EN: after a breakout because too often it’s a trap.
ZH: 突破之后，如果有大阴线收在最低， 通常我不会在这里买入，因为有太多这样的陷阱
09:34 - 09:38
EN: However, the odds are there are buyers below,
ZH: 然而，在它的下方大概率会有很多买盘
09:38 - 09:41
EN: and bulls buying at that low can scale in lower.
ZH: 在它的低点买入的多头会在更低的价格加仓
09:42 - 09:46
EN: When you see a strong breakout like this, you know several things.
ZH: 当看到这样的强势突破时，你知道几件事情——
09:46 - 09:48
EN: You know the market’s probably not in a bear trend,
ZH: 你知道市场现在不是下降趋势
09:49 - 09:53
EN: but it’s either in a bull trend and it will go up without much of a pullback
ZH: 要么是上涨趋势，即使回调也很快就继续上涨
09:53 - 09:56
EN: or it’s a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range
ZH: 要么会变成震荡区间
09:56 - 10:01
EN: - in which case if you’re buying up here, you need a stop down here or down here
ZH: ——如果是这种情况，你在买入之后， 需要把止损放在这里或这里，
10:01 - 10:05
EN: because if it’s a bull leg in a Trading Range, you can get a very deep pullback.
ZH: 因为如果它真的是震荡区间，可能会有非常深度的回调
10:05 - 10:06
EN: You can get a bear leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 接下来可能会是区间中的下跌波段
10:06 - 10:09
EN: and it could even go below the bottom of the range.
ZH: 甚至可能略微跌破区间的底部再反转上涨
10:11 - 10:12
EN: Strong rally.
ZH: 强势的上涨
10:12 - 10:17
EN: 60% chance there’ll be a second leg up and bulls will buy the reversal down.
ZH: 60%的概率会有第2段上涨，所以多头会在下跌时买入
10:17 - 10:19
EN: However, it’s a possible 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 然而，它有可能是第2段陷阱
10:19 - 10:22
EN: One leg up, a Wedge rally and then a pullback,
ZH: 第1段上涨，3推楔形，然后回调
10:22 - 10:25
EN: and then a second leg up that’s especially strong.
ZH: 然后是异常强势的第2段上涨
10:25 - 10:29
EN: It’s still a 60% chance that it’s going to have a second leg up,
ZH: 仍然有60%的概率，还会有一段上涨
10:29 - 10:34
EN: but if it does have a deep pullback – in other words, if the 40% happens
ZH: 但如果真的出现深度回调——换句话说，40%的情况发生了
10:35 - 10:43
EN: - then you have to be thinking that maybe this is a rally
ZH: 那么你就必须考虑到，它也许只是震荡区间中的一段上涨， 而不是一个大的上涨趋势的开始
10:39 - 10:43
EN: that is part of a Trading Range and not the start of a big bull trend.
ZH: 那么你就必须考虑到，它也许只是震荡区间中的一段上涨， 而不是一个大的上涨趋势的开始
10:49 - 10:50
EN: Strong reversal down.
ZH: 强势的反转下跌
10:50 - 10:53
EN: A pair of bear bars and then a deep pullback.
ZH: 两根阴线，深度回调
10:53 - 11:00
EN: Therefore, this rally is more likely a bull leg in what
ZH: 因此，这段上涨更有可能会变成震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
10:57 - 11:00
EN: will become a Trading Range instead of the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 因此，这段上涨更有可能会变成震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
Slide 006
Time: 11:05
Bilingual Transcript
11:07 - 11:10
EN: Whenever something is a high probability setup in a trend
ZH: 每当你看到一个机会，它在趋势中的胜率很高
11:10 - 11:14
EN: and you see that pattern setting up in what you think is a Trading Range,
ZH: 但现在你认为市场更有可能是震荡区间
11:14 - 11:16
EN: the probability is not as high as you think.
ZH: 那么它的胜率就没有那么高了
11:16 - 11:19
EN: It’s probably more like 50% instead of 60%.
ZH: 概率变得只有50%，而不再是60%
11:26 - 11:30
EN: Head and Shoulders Top – left shoulder, head, and then right shoulder
ZH: 头肩顶——左肩、头，然后右肩
11:31 - 11:33
EN: - and there’s also a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 还有一个双顶熊旗
11:33 - 11:38
EN: You would think 60% chance we would test the low,
ZH: 你觉得有60%的概率会测试前期低点， 也就是头肩顶的颈线
11:36 - 11:38
EN: the neckline of the Head and Shoulders Top,
ZH: 你觉得有60%的概率会测试前期低点， 也就是头肩顶的颈线
11:38 - 11:44
EN: but because so much of the trading is sideways,
ZH: 但左边全都在横盘震荡，所以概率没有60%那么高
11:41 - 11:44
EN: Trading Range, the probabilities are rarely ever 60%.
ZH: 但左边全都在横盘震荡，所以概率没有60%那么高
11:44 - 11:47
EN: So, it’s closer to 50/50.
ZH: 概率降低到了50%左右
11:51 - 11:54
EN: We got a pretty strong reversal up after the selloff
ZH: 在抛售之后，价格强势地反转上涨
11:54 - 12:00
EN: - a sign that instead of a continued bear trend, Lower Highs and Lower Lows,
ZH: 说明这不会是下降趋势，高点和低点不会一直降低
12:00 - 12:02
EN: this is probably a bear leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 这段下跌更有可能会变成震荡区间
12:02 - 12:06
EN: and then this is probably the start of a bull leg in that same Trading Range.
ZH: 现在很可能正在进入区间中上涨波段
Slide 007
Time: 12:10
Bilingual Transcript
12:11 - 12:15
EN: I said that when the market’s in a Trading Range and you have a rally
ZH: 刚才讲过，如果是区间中的上涨或下跌波段，
12:15 - 12:19
EN: or a selloff, you get pullbacks beyond breakout points.
ZH: 回调或反弹经常会超过突破点
12:19 - 12:21
EN: In other words, a stairs type of pattern.
ZH: 换句话说，是阶梯式的
12:21 - 12:23
EN: That means most gaps close.
ZH: 大部分缺口都会被补掉
12:28 - 12:33
EN: Here we have a gap between the close of this bar and the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 这根K线的收盘价，和前一根K线的高点之间有缺口
12:33 - 12:36
EN: but if it’s a bull trend, higher probability the gap will stay open.
ZH: 如果是上涨趋势，缺口更有可能保持开放
12:37 - 12:43
EN: The next bar, the low fell below the high
ZH: 下一根K线跌破了突破点，缺口被填补
12:41 - 12:43
EN: of the breakout point and the gap closed.
ZH: 下一根K线跌破了突破点，缺口被填补
12:43 - 12:48
EN: That is more common if the rally is going to be a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 这样的情况会更常见
12:52 - 12:58
EN: You can see the pullback; the following bar had a low
ZH: 可以看到，回调K线的最低点，低于突破点
12:56 - 12:58
EN: below the high of the breakout point.
ZH: 可以看到，回调K线的最低点，低于突破点
13:02 - 13:11
EN: Strong breakout above a prior high, and the market immediately pulled back
ZH: 强势突破前期高点，但市场立刻回调到它的下方， 然后继续下跌了很多
13:06 - 13:11
EN: below the high, and the pullback here went far below the breakout point.
ZH: 强势突破前期高点，但市场立刻回调到它的下方， 然后继续下跌了很多
13:11 - 13:13
EN: That gap closed.
ZH: 缺口被填补了
13:22 - 13:26
EN: These pullbacks allow bears to get out without a loss.
ZH: 这样的回调让空头至少不会亏钱
13:26 - 13:32
EN: So, bears selling at this high, they could be disappointed
ZH: 比如，在那个高点挂单做空的空头， 看到大阳线突破感到失望
13:30 - 13:33
EN: by the size of this bull bar and decide they want to get out breakeven.
ZH: 比如，在那个高点挂单做空的空头， 看到大阳线突破感到失望 于是想要争取打平离场（注：而不是再追求盈利）
13:33 - 13:35
EN: The next bar fell below the breakout point,
ZH: 下一根K线跌破了突破点
13:35 - 13:37
EN: and it allowed the bears to get out breakeven.
ZH: 所以空头能够顺利地打平离场
13:37 - 13:39
EN: The same right here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
13:39 - 13:41
EN: The bears who sold at this high,
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空的空头
13:41 - 13:44
EN: the pullback was deep enough for them to make a profit.
ZH: 回调足够深，他们可以赚到钱
13:45 - 13:56
EN: If the bears can sell and avoid a loss like this
ZH: 如果空头可以不亏钱，或是像这样赚钱， 那么这个上涨波段大概率会变成震荡区间
13:49 - 13:56
EN: or make a profit like this, then the rally probably is going to be
ZH: 如果空头可以不亏钱，或是像这样赚钱， 那么这个上涨波段大概率会变成震荡区间
13:53 - 13:56
EN: a bull leg in what will end up as a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果空头可以不亏钱，或是像这样赚钱， 那么这个上涨波段大概率会变成震荡区间
13:58 - 14:00
EN: The opposite’s true for the bears.
ZH: 下降趋势中也是一样
14:00 - 14:04
EN: We have a gap between this close and that low.
ZH: 它的收盘价和那个低点之间有一个缺口
14:04 - 14:08
EN: Then we had a reversal back up above the breakout point,
ZH: 随后反弹超过了这个突破点
14:08 - 14:12
EN: and therefore the bulls who bought that low right here,
ZH: 因此在那个低点挂单买入的多头，
14:12 - 14:18
EN: if they did not scale in, this rally back above their entry price
ZH: 即使没有在下方加仓， 也能在价格涨回来的时候打平离场、避免亏损
14:16 - 14:18
EN: allowed them to get out without a loss.
ZH: 即使没有在下方加仓， 也能在价格涨回来的时候打平离场、避免亏损
14:18 - 14:22
EN: If they did scale in, the rally allowed them to make a profit.
ZH: 如果加仓的话，这笔交易能够赚钱
14:26 - 14:30
EN: We have a gap here, right here – this close and that low
ZH: 这里有一个缺口——它的收盘价和这个低点之间
14:30 - 14:34
EN: - and a bigger breakout here – this close and that low.
ZH: 还有一个更大的缺口——它的收盘价和这个低点
14:35 - 14:36
EN: Look at the pullback.
ZH: 看反弹的幅度
14:36 - 14:40
EN: The pullback went above the top of the bear swing.
ZH: 反弹甚至超过了下跌波段的起跌点
14:42 - 14:46
EN: So, bear gaps are also closing, just like the bull gaps are closing,
ZH: 所以和上涨波段一样，下跌波段中的缺口也都被补掉了
14:46 - 14:48
EN: and that’s one of the characteristics of a Trading Range.
ZH: 那是震荡区间的一个重要特征
14:53 - 14:59
EN: I want to talk a little bit about legs
ZH: 我想对比一下震荡区间中的波段和趋势中的波段
Slide 008
Time: 14:55
Bilingual Transcript
14:55 - 14:59
EN: within a Trading Range instead of in a trend.
ZH: 我想对比一下震荡区间中的波段和趋势中的波段
Slide 009
Time: 15:00
Bilingual Transcript
15:05 - 15:07
EN: Pretty good rally.
ZH: 非常好的上涨
15:07 - 15:09
EN: A very Tight Channel, a bull breakout.
ZH: 窄通道，向上突破
15:09 - 15:11
EN: But look to the left.
ZH: 但是看左边
15:12 - 15:15
EN: We’re barely above the top of the trend.
ZH: 只是略微超过前期高点
15:15 - 15:17
EN: We’re in a Broad Bull Channel at this point;
ZH: 此时市场处于宽上涨通道
15:17 - 15:21
EN: we have Higher Highs and Higher Lows, but it’s either a bull leg
ZH: 高点抬高，低点抬高， 但它要么是宽上涨通道中的上涨波段，
15:21 - 15:25
EN: in a Broad Bull Channel or a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么是震荡区间中的上涨波段，
15:26 - 15:30
EN: Look at the lack of consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 没有连续的大阳线收在最高
15:30 - 15:33
EN: The bull bars that do close on their highs are not big,
ZH: 有的阳线确实收在最高，但体积并不大
15:33 - 15:36
EN: and we do not have consecutive big bull bars.
ZH: 而且没有连续的大阳线
15:36 - 15:40
EN: That is a characteristic of a rally that will end up in a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间中的上涨波段都有这样的特征
15:40 - 15:45
EN: In other words, it’ll lead to a bear leg and not to a bull trend.
ZH: 换句话说，接下来会是一个下跌波段，而不是上涨趋势
15:50 - 15:57
EN: We get all of these tails on the tops of the bars
ZH: 所有这些上影线和回调，都是由于多头止盈而形成的
15:53 - 15:57
EN: and the pullbacks because the bulls are taking partial profits.
ZH: 所有这些上影线和回调，都是由于多头止盈而形成的
15:57 - 16:00
EN: When the market goes up a little, they take profits.
ZH: 当市场稍微有一些上涨，他们就止盈
16:00 - 16:04
EN: They lack confidence that the trend will continue up very far,
ZH: 多头对趋势大幅上涨缺乏信心
16:04 - 16:06
EN: so they keep taking profits.
ZH: 所以他们不断止盈
16:07 - 16:10
EN: The bears do not want to sell too low.
ZH: 空头不想卖得太低
16:10 - 16:14
EN: They see the market’s probably in a Trading Range, maybe a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 他们认为市场可能处于震荡区间，或者是宽上涨通道
16:14 - 16:15
EN: They want to sell high.
ZH: 他们想逢高做空
16:15 - 16:21
EN: They want to sell above prior highs, and very often they don’t want
ZH: 他们想要在前期高点的上方卖出做空， 而不是在前期高点下方卖出
16:18 - 16:21
EN: to sell too low below the prior high.
ZH: 他们想要在前期高点的上方卖出做空， 而不是在前期高点下方卖出
16:21 - 16:27
EN: That lack of selling by the bears can lead to a pretty strong reversal up.
ZH: 因为当中没有卖单，所以会形成非常强势的反转上涨
16:34 - 16:35
EN: They want to sell high.
ZH: 空头想要尽可能在高位卖出
16:35 - 16:37
EN: They don’t want to sell low.
ZH: 他们不想卖得太低
16:37 - 16:39
EN: So why is the market rallying?
ZH: 为什么市场强势上涨？
16:39 - 16:45
EN: It’s rallying because there are
ZH: 因为空头不愿意在这里卖出，所以没有卖盘
16:41 - 16:45
EN: not many sellers down here, so there are a lack of sellers.
ZH: 因为空头不愿意在这里卖出，所以没有卖盘
16:45 - 16:49
EN: The market has to go higher to find a price where bears are willing to sell.
ZH: 市场必须涨到更高的价格，才能找到更多愿意卖出的人
Slide 010
Time: 16:55
Bilingual Transcript
16:57 - 17:02
EN: This is I think important to distinguish from what I was just showing.
ZH: 这张图和刚才的案例是有区别的，你一定要能分辨
17:02 - 17:05
EN: We have a lack of consecutive big bull bars.
ZH: 它也没有连续的大阳线
17:05 - 17:08
EN: We have decent bull bar, but not consecutive big bull bars.
ZH: 有一些不错的阳线，但没有连续大阳线
17:08 - 17:10
EN: Terrible follow-through.
ZH: 跟随不好
17:10 - 17:12
EN: The same here, terrible follow-through, terrible follow-through.
ZH: 这里也是，跟随不好，跟随不好
17:12 - 17:19
EN: But what’s different between this rally
ZH: 那么这个上涨和之前课件中的上涨，到底有什么区别呢？
17:16 - 17:19
EN: and all the rallies that I’ve shown so far today?
ZH: 那么这个上涨和之前课件中的上涨，到底有什么区别呢？
17:23 - 17:25
EN: This: gaps.
ZH: 区别在于：缺口
17:26 - 17:29
EN: Whenever a rally looks weak and it looks like a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 当上涨趋势看起来很弱，看起来只是震荡区间中的上涨
17:29 - 17:33
EN: but it’s forming gaps and negative (body) gaps – slight overlap.
ZH: 但它制造了缺口和实体缺口——影线略有重叠
17:33 - 17:35
EN: We have a breakout and a pullback.
ZH: 突破，回调
17:35 - 17:37
EN: Could not fall below this breakout point.
ZH: 没有跌回到突破点的下方
17:37 - 17:38
EN: We have a breakout.
ZH: 突破
17:38 - 17:42
EN: Does not look all that strong, but look at the pullback – here, here, here.
ZH: 看起来并不怎么强势，但是看回调——这里、这里、这里
17:42 - 17:44
EN: Could not fall below the breakout point.
ZH: 没能跌回到突破点的下方
17:44 - 17:49
EN: If you have a rally that looks weak but it’s forming two or three gaps,
ZH: 如果一个上涨趋势看起来很弱，但形成了两三个缺口
17:49 - 17:56
EN: it’s probably a Small Pullback Bull Trend and it probably is a bull trend
ZH: 那么它大概率是回调很小的上涨趋势—— 所以是趋势，而不是震荡区间中的上涨波段
17:54 - 17:56
EN: and not a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么它大概率是回调很小的上涨趋势—— 所以是趋势，而不是震荡区间中的上涨波段
17:56 - 17:59
EN: These gaps often lead to Measured Moves up.
ZH: 有缺口，所以大概率会涨到MM目标位
18:05 - 18:10
EN: If the market’s forming gaps or negative (body) gaps, just a little bit of an overlap,
ZH: 如果有实体缺口，只是影线有一点点重叠
18:10 - 18:15
EN: do not sell at prior highs and scale in higher because you will lose money.
ZH: 不要在前期高点挂单做空并在上方加仓， 因为这样做会亏钱
18:15 - 18:18
EN: For example, if you sold this high and scaled in higher,
ZH: 例如，如果你在这个高点挂单卖出，并且在上方加仓
18:18 - 18:21
EN: it never came back below the breakout point,
ZH: 价格从未跌回到突破点的下方
18:21 - 18:25
EN: and you would have had to cover, buy back your short with a loss.
ZH: 最终你不得不买入回补，接受亏损
18:25 - 18:26
EN: You would lose money.
ZH: 这样做会亏钱
18:27 - 18:30
EN: It’s a Small Pullback Bull Trend, not a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是回调很小的上涨趋势，不是震荡区间中的上涨波段
18:34 - 18:38
EN: Here, gap, and it did lead to a Measured Move up,
ZH: 缺口，然后涨到了MM目标位
18:38 - 18:40
EN: and you can see some profit-taking at the Measured Move up.
ZH: 可以看到在MM目标位有多头卖出止盈
18:40 - 18:43
EN: Aggressive bears might sell there for a scalp.
ZH: 激进的空头会在那里做空剥头皮
18:44 - 18:47
EN: Most of the selling is due to bulls taking profits.
ZH: 大多数卖盘来自于止盈的多头
Slide 011
Time: 18:49
Bilingual Transcript
18:54 - 18:55
EN: We have a selloff.
ZH: 这段下跌
18:55 - 18:57
EN: We have a couple bear bars.
ZH: 其中有几根不错的阴线
18:57 - 18:59
EN: Why does this look weak?
ZH: 但为什么它很弱？
18:59 - 19:01
EN: Why does it look like a bear leg in a Trading Range?
ZH: 为什么只是震荡区间中的下跌波段？
19:01 - 19:04
EN: Well, the bears are lacking conviction.
ZH: 因为空头不够坚决
19:04 - 19:07
EN: We keep getting pauses after big bear bars because every time
ZH: 每次有大的阴线，后面下跌就会暂停
19:07 - 19:11
EN: the bears see a big bear bar, they see it as a gift
ZH: 因为空头把大阴线看作是市场的馈赠——
19:11 - 19:15
EN: - a surprisingly big bar allowing them to buy back their shorts for a profit.
ZH: 惊喜的大阴线，空头利用它来止盈
19:15 - 19:23
EN: They’re taking quick profits, so we keep getting reversals
ZH: 他们赚快钱离场，所以大阴线之后价格总是反弹， 而不是连续的下跌
19:19 - 19:23
EN: after big bear bars instead of a series of consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 他们赚快钱离场，所以大阴线之后价格总是反弹， 而不是连续的下跌
19:23 - 19:25
EN: The bears lack conviction.
ZH: 空头不够坚定
19:25 - 19:28
EN: They do not believe the market is going down very far.
ZH: 他们不相信价格会大幅下跌
19:34 - 19:36
EN: They’re not selling at lows.
ZH: 他们不愿意追空
19:36 - 19:37
EN: They’re waiting to sell pullbacks.
ZH: 他们只想等反弹的时候卖出
19:37 - 19:43
EN: They’re buying back their shorts every strong bear bar,
ZH: 每次看到大阴线，他们就止盈，以防价格反弹
19:41 - 19:43
EN: betting that the market will pull back.
ZH: 每次看到大阴线，他们就止盈，以防价格反弹
19:50 - 19:54
EN: The bulls see that as well, but they don’t want to be buying high.
ZH: 多头也看到了这一点，但他们不想在高位买入
19:54 - 19:57
EN: They suspect it’s a Trading Range, and they prefer to buy low.
ZH: 他们怀疑现在是震荡区间，所以更倾向于在低位买入
19:58 - 20:04
EN: These little reversals are more due to bears taking profits
ZH: 这些小反弹主要是由空头止盈造成的，而不是多头买入
20:02 - 20:11
EN: and then selling again than from bulls buying, because they’re not willing
ZH: 这些小反弹主要是由空头止盈造成的，而不是多头买入 因为多头不想买在震荡区间的顶部，然后被套牢
20:06 - 20:11
EN: to buy too high up in a weak rally or at the top of a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为多头不想买在震荡区间的顶部，然后被套牢
20:17 - 20:25
EN: The bulls want to buy low, and the market’s falling
ZH: 多头想逢低买入，市场下跌是因为缺乏买盘， 而不是因为空头有多么兴奋
20:21 - 20:25
EN: because of a lack of buyers, not because of enthusiastic sellers.
ZH: 多头想逢低买入，市场下跌是因为缺乏买盘， 而不是因为空头有多么兴奋
20:25 - 20:29
EN: The bears keep buying back their shorts every time there’s a strong bear bar.
ZH: 每次看到大阴线，空头都利用它来止盈
Slide 012
Time: 20:33
Bilingual Transcript
20:38 - 20:40
EN: We have a bear bar, bad follow-through.
ZH: 阴线，跟随很糟糕
20:40 - 20:42
EN: Bear bar’s not all that big.
ZH: 这些阴线体积并不大
20:43 - 20:46
EN: Bad follow-through, bad follow-through, lots of reversals up
ZH: 跟随糟糕，跟随糟糕，价格一直反弹
20:46 - 20:49
EN: - but a Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 但它是反弹很小的下降趋势
20:49 - 20:54
EN: We’re getting gaps, and that increases the chances that this is a bear trend
ZH: 空头制造了很多缺口，所以更有可能是下降趋势，
20:54 - 20:56
EN: and not just a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 而不仅仅只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
20:56 - 21:01
EN: It’s a very strong type of bear trend, even though it looks weak.
ZH: 尽管看起来很弱，但这是一个非常强的下降趋势，
21:01 - 21:03
EN: Traders should not be buying.
ZH: 不能做多
21:08 - 21:10
EN: A pullback not overlapping the breakout point.
ZH: 反弹没有超过突破点
21:10 - 21:13
EN: A pullback not overlapping a breakout point.
ZH: 反弹没有超过突破点
21:13 - 21:17
EN: Small Pullback Bear Trend that is a bear trend.
ZH: 它是反弹很小的下降趋势
21:17 - 21:22
EN: It turns out we got a reversal and you can call the whole thing a Trading Range,
ZH: 尽管最终反转上涨了，最终是震荡区间日
21:22 - 21:27
EN: but when you see a selloff that does not look strong, yet it’s forming gaps,
ZH: 但当你看到一个下降趋势，看起来不强，却一直在制造缺口
21:27 - 21:29
EN: it’s probably a Small Pullback Bear Trend
ZH: 那很有可能是反弹很小的下降趋势
21:29 - 21:32
EN: and therefore it’s probably going lower – a lot lower.
ZH: 所以大概率会继续下跌——下跌很多
21:32 - 21:34
EN: Do not look to buy.
ZH: 不能做多
21:40 - 21:42
EN: We have a gap.
ZH: 因为有缺口
21:42 - 21:46
EN: We fell below a Measured Move, from here to this potential Measured Move.
ZH: 从这个高点到缺口的MM目标位被跌破了
21:46 - 21:50
EN: We did fall to a Measured Move based upon this gap.
ZH: 然后跌到下一个缺口的MM目标位
21:50 - 21:51
EN: It became a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 它是测量型缺口
21:52 - 21:54
EN: So, when you’re seeing a Small Pullback Bear Trend
ZH: 所以，当你在反弹很小的下降趋势中看到缺口，
21:54 - 22:00
EN: and you’re getting gaps, you have to be thinking that one
ZH: 你必须考虑到，价格会跌到某个缺口的MM目标位
21:58 - 22:00
EN: or more of those gaps will lead to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 你必须考虑到，价格会跌到某个缺口的MM目标位
Slide 013
Time: 22:05
Bilingual Transcript
22:08 - 22:13
EN: I talked about the characteristics of a Trading Range leg versus a trend leg.
ZH: 我讲解了震荡区间中的波段，和趋势中的波段各自的特征
22:14 - 22:19
EN: All the signs that the market’s in a Trading Range
ZH: 表明市场处于震荡区间的信号，是由交易者的策略发出的
22:16 - 22:19
EN: are due to how traders are trading.
ZH: 表明市场处于震荡区间的信号，是由交易者的策略发出的
22:25 - 22:28
EN: The traders believe the selloffs will not get too far,
ZH: 交易者认为市场不会下跌太多
22:28 - 22:31
EN: and therefore they don’t want to sell near the bottom,
ZH: 所以他们不想在低位卖出做空
22:31 - 22:34
EN: and the bulls believe the selloffs and bear breakouts will fail,
ZH: 多头认为空头向下跌破的尝试会失败
22:34 - 22:37
EN: and they’re looking to buy low, betting on a reversal up.
ZH: 所以他们逢低买入，押注价格会反转上涨
22:37 - 22:41
EN: Then the opposite is true when the market gets up near prior highs.
ZH: 当市场接近前期高点时也是一样
22:41 - 22:44
EN: The bears are much more interested in selling rallies,
ZH: 空头更愿意在反弹时卖出做空
22:44 - 22:47
EN: but they’re not willing to hold their shorts for very long
ZH: 但他们不愿意持有太久
22:47 - 22:51
EN: because they’re not confident the reversals down will get very far,
ZH: 因为他们对大幅下跌没有信心
22:51 - 22:53
EN: and the bulls are not willing to buy high.
ZH: 同时多头不愿意在高位追涨
22:54 - 22:58
EN: They’re looking to sell rallies to take profits
ZH: 他们在低位买入之后，利用反弹的机会止盈
22:56 - 22:58
EN: on the longs that they bought lower.
ZH: 他们在低位买入之后，利用反弹的机会止盈
22:59 - 23:01
EN: Bulls are buying low, selling high.
ZH: 多头逢低做多，逢高止盈
23:01 - 23:04
EN: Bears are selling high and buying low.
ZH: 空头逢高做空，逢低止盈
23:04 - 23:06
EN: So, both bulls and bears are buying low, selling high,
ZH: 所以，多头和空头都在低买、高卖
23:06 - 23:10
EN: and both are taking quick profits, and the result is a Trading Range.
ZH: 而且都在剥头皮赚快钱，所以导致了震荡区间
23:10 - 23:13
EN: That is why when the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 这就是为什么当市场处于震荡区间时
23:13 - 23:16
EN: traders should look to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 交易者应该低买、高卖，做剥头皮交易
23:16 - 23:17
EN: Take quick profits.
ZH: 赚了就跑
23:19 - 23:22
EN: The bulls actually are buying bear reversals,
ZH: 多头会在大阴线的收盘买入
23:22 - 23:24
EN: betting that the reversals will fail.
ZH: 押注空头反转失败
23:24 - 23:32
EN: So, a strong bear bar, a lot of bulls will buy that if they think
ZH: 大阴线，多头在它的收盘买入，押注这是震荡区间， 他们也会在反转上涨时买入
23:29 - 23:32
EN: this is a Trading Range, and they’ll also buy a reversal up.
ZH: 大阴线，多头在它的收盘买入，押注这是震荡区间， 他们也会在反转上涨时买入
23:39 - 23:42
EN: When the market’s near the top, bears will do the opposite.
ZH: 当市场接近区间顶部时，空头也是一样的做法
23:42 - 23:44
EN: Every time they see a strong bull bar,
ZH: 每当他们看到一根大阳线
23:45 - 23:48
EN: they’ll sell it and they’ll sell a reversal down.
ZH: 他们就卖出做空，或者在反转下跌时卖出做空
23:49 - 23:52
EN: A bull breakout, bears will sell and they’ll take profits.
ZH: 向上突破时，空头做空，并快速止盈
23:53 - 23:55
EN: Take quick profits on the way down.
ZH: 在下跌过程中赚了就跑
23:59 - 24:07
EN: Neither the bulls nor the bears believe that the market’s going to go
ZH: 多头和空头都不认为价格会有很大的波动， 所以他们赚快钱离场
24:02 - 24:07
EN: very far up or down, and the result is they take quick profits.
ZH: 多头和空头都不认为价格会有很大的波动， 所以他们赚快钱离场
24:07 - 24:11
EN: Sometimes they can swing trade, but in general they’re not expecting
ZH: 有时区间足够宽，也可以做波段交易，
24:11 - 24:15
EN: a big trend up or down, and they’re looking to take quick profits.
ZH: 但总体上他们并不期待会有大幅的上涨或下跌
Slide 014
Time: 24:19
Bilingual Transcript
24:20 - 24:23
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, traders should look to buy low
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，交易者应该逢低买入——
24:23 - 24:27
EN: - buy in the bottom half – and sell high – sell in the top half.
ZH: 在下半部分买入； 逢高卖出——在上半部分卖出
Slide 015
Time: 24:28
Bilingual Transcript
24:33 - 24:36
EN: At this point the market’s in a Trading Range right here,
ZH: 此时市场处于震荡区间
24:36 - 24:38
EN: and this is the top half.
ZH: 这是区间的上半部分
24:38 - 24:44
EN: Bears are going to sell in the top half and bulls
ZH: 空头会在上半部分卖出做空，同时多头会卖出止盈
24:41 - 24:44
EN: are going to sell out of their longs to take profits.
ZH: 空头会在上半部分卖出做空，同时多头会卖出止盈
24:48 - 24:50
EN: In the bottom half, the opposite is true.
ZH: 等价格跌到下半部分
24:50 - 24:54
EN: The bears are going to buy back their shorts
ZH: 空头买入止盈，多头买入做多
24:52 - 24:54
EN: and the bulls are going to buy to get long.
ZH: 空头买入止盈，多头买入做多
24:57 - 25:07
EN: As more bars get added, the Trading Range can expand, and you get a new top half
ZH: 随着K线越来越多，震荡区间会扩张， 上半部分和下半部分的范围发生了变化，但交易的方法不变
25:03 - 25:07
EN: and a new bottom half, and traders will do the same as they did earlier.
ZH: 随着K线越来越多，震荡区间会扩张， 上半部分和下半部分的范围发生了变化，但交易的方法不变
25:07 - 25:08
EN: Same here.
ZH: 一样的策略
25:08 - 25:10
EN: At this point the Trading Range high is up here,
ZH: 此时，区间的高点在这里，
25:10 - 25:14
EN: the low is down here, and bears will look to sell in the top half
ZH: 低点在那里，空头会在上半部分做空
25:14 - 25:16
EN: and bulls will look to buy in the bottom half.
ZH: 多头会在下半部分买入
25:21 - 25:29
EN: Because both bulls and bears are buying low, selling high,
ZH: 因为多空双方都在低买、高卖、赚快钱， 所以市场继续横盘震荡
25:25 - 25:29
EN: and taking quick profits, the market continues sideways.
ZH: 因为多空双方都在低买、高卖、赚快钱， 所以市场继续横盘震荡
25:29 - 25:33
EN: The market will create a Trading Range when traders trade that way.
ZH: 当交易者这样交易时，市场就形成了震荡区间
25:39 - 25:42
EN: As a trader, if you see evidence of a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果看到了震荡区间的信号
25:42 - 25:45
EN: you should do exactly what the institutions are doing,
ZH: 你应该完全按照机构的方法去交易——
25:45 - 25:47
EN: and that’s buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 低买、高卖，剥头皮赚快钱
25:48 - 25:51
EN: Here’s my acronym: BLSHS.
ZH: 缩写：BLSHS （注：Buy Low Sell High Scalp的首字母）
Slide 016
Time: 25:54
Bilingual Transcript
25:58 - 26:01
EN: Trading Ranges often have very deep pullbacks,
ZH: 震荡区间里经常会有非常深的回调或反弹
26:01 - 26:05
EN: and therefore a lot of traders prefer to buy in the bottom third
ZH: 因此很多交易者更喜欢在底部三分之一买入，
26:05 - 26:09
EN: and sell in the top third and do nothing in the middle third.
ZH: 在顶部三分之一卖出， 在中间三分之一的时候不做交易
26:10 - 26:12
EN: At this point we have a Trading Range.
ZH: 此时市场处于震荡区间
26:12 - 26:14
EN: It looks like a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 它看起来像是震荡区间中的一个上涨波段
26:14 - 26:18
EN: Traders want to sell in the top third and buy in the bottom third,
ZH: 交易者想在顶部三分之一卖出， 在底部三分之一买入
26:18 - 26:21
EN: either with limit orders or reversals up.
ZH: 要么挂限价单，要么在反转上涨时用突破单买入
26:22 - 26:25
EN: At this point the Trading Range is bigger.
ZH: 到了这里，震荡区间扩大了
26:25 - 26:28
EN: Traders want to sell in the top third, buy in the bottom third.
ZH: 交易者想在顶部三分之一卖出，底部三分之一买入
26:30 - 26:32
EN: A bigger Trading Range.
ZH: 更大的震荡区间
26:32 - 26:35
EN: Whenever the market’s in the bottom third, they’re looking to buy,
ZH: 每当价格跌到底部三分之一，多头就找机会做多
26:35 - 26:39
EN: either with a limit order on a reversal up – and when it’s in the top third,
ZH: 要么挂限价买单，要么在反转上涨时用突破单买入； 当价格涨到顶部三分之一
26:39 - 26:42
EN: they’re looking for reasons to sell, like a reversal down.
ZH: 空头就找机会做空，比如在反转下跌时卖出
26:42 - 26:44
EN: Especially a reversal down above a prior high.
ZH: 尤其是当价格从前期高点上方反转下跌的时候
26:49 - 26:57
EN: In general, stops can be very far away because a lot of traders
ZH: 通常来说，止损有可能比较大， 因为很多交易者会使用宽止损并加仓，所以风险比较大
26:52 - 26:57
EN: will use wide stops and scale in, and the result is the risk is big.
ZH: 通常来说，止损有可能比较大， 因为很多交易者会使用宽止损并加仓，所以风险比较大
26:57 - 27:00
EN: So, the risk/reward ratio is not all that good.
ZH: 盈亏比并没有那么好
27:00 - 27:04
EN: You’re taking quick profits, so the reward is not all that big.
ZH: 剥头皮赚快钱，所以利润并不大
27:05 - 27:12
EN: Because most breakouts fail, the probability is low
ZH: 但大部分突破都会失败， 在顶部追涨，或者在底部追空，胜率是很低的
27:09 - 27:12
EN: when buying near the top and selling near the bottom.
ZH: 但大部分突破都会失败， 在顶部追涨，或者在底部追空，胜率是很低的
27:12 - 27:15
EN: If you’re buying up here betting on a breakout, you’re probably going to lose.
ZH: 如果在这里追涨，押注突破成功，大概率是会亏钱的
27:15 - 27:17
EN: The probability is the breakout will fail.
ZH: 突破更有可能会失败
27:17 - 27:25
EN: The opposite’s true selling in the lower third, betting on the breakout
ZH: 同样，在底部三分之一做空， 押注向下跌破、进入下降趋势，这么做的胜率很低
27:22 - 27:25
EN: and the conversion into a bear trend, a low probability bet.
ZH: 同样，在底部三分之一做空， 押注向下跌破、进入下降趋势，这么做的胜率很低
27:29 - 27:37
EN: Therefore, if you’re looking to buy at the top, your stop is far away,
ZH: 如果你在顶部买入，你的止损很远、风险很大， 剩余的利润也不多，而且胜率又低
27:34 - 27:37
EN: the risk is big, probably not much reward, and the probability is low.
ZH: 如果你在顶部买入，你的止损很远、风险很大， 剩余的利润也不多，而且胜率又低
27:37 - 27:41
EN: That’s a bad Trader’s Equation for traders looking to buy high.
ZH: 所以在顶部追涨的数学期望很差
27:41 - 27:44
EN: The opposite is true for traders looking to sell low.
ZH: 在底部做空也是一样
27:44 - 27:46
EN: If you’re selling down here, your stop is up here.
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，止损在很上面
27:46 - 27:47
EN: Your risk is big.
ZH: 所以风险大
27:48 - 27:53
EN: Your reward is probably not great; because we’re in a Trading Range,
ZH: 剩余的利润大概率不多了， 因为市场处于震荡区间，不会下跌很远
27:51 - 27:53
EN: it’s probably not going to fall all that far.
ZH: 剩余的利润大概率不多了， 因为市场处于震荡区间，不会下跌很远
27:53 - 27:59
EN: So, you have bad risk/reward and you have low probability
ZH: 不但盈亏比很糟糕，而且胜率也低， 因为大部分突破的尝试都会失败
27:57 - 27:59
EN: because most breakout attempts fail.
ZH: 不但盈亏比很糟糕，而且胜率也低， 因为大部分突破的尝试都会失败
27:59 - 28:03
EN: This attempt to convert into a bear trend probably will fail.
ZH: 让市场进入下降趋势的尝试大概率会失败
28:03 - 28:06
EN: So, it’s better to look to buy low and sell high.
ZH: 所以，最好逢低买入，逢高卖出
Slide 017
Time: 28:10
Bilingual Transcript
28:13 - 28:17
EN: A stop entry is a bet on a breakout and a trend.
ZH: 用突破单入场，是押注突破成功、进入趋势
28:21 - 28:30
EN: When the market’s in a Tight Trading Range, instead of buying with stops
ZH: 当市场处于窄震荡区间时， 与其在顶部用突破买单做多、押注上涨趋势， 不如用限价卖单逢高做空
28:25 - 28:30
EN: at the top betting on a trend, it’s better to sell with a limit order
ZH: 与其在顶部用突破买单做多、押注上涨趋势， 不如用限价卖单逢高做空
28:29 - 28:32
EN: at the top, betting on a continued Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 与其在顶部用突破买单做多、押注上涨趋势， 不如用限价卖单逢高做空 押注窄震荡区间会继续
28:32 - 28:36
EN: Instead of selling with a stop at the bottom betting on the conversion
ZH: 与其在底部用突破卖单做空、押注下降趋势，
28:36 - 28:39
EN: into a trend, it’s better to be buying with a limit order,
ZH: 不如用限价买单逢低做多
28:39 - 28:44
EN: betting on a failed breakout and a reversal back up
ZH: 押注突破失败，会反弹回到窄区间里面
28:43 - 28:44
EN: into the Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 押注突破失败，会反弹回到窄区间里面
28:44 - 28:47
EN: When the range is very tight, most traders should not trade.
ZH: 如果区间非常窄，那么大部分人都不应该交易
28:53 - 28:55
EN: It’s a limit order market.
ZH: 它是限价单市场
28:55 - 28:59
EN: Easier to make money selling above bars and buying below,
ZH: 逢高做空、逢低做多、押注突破失败，更容易赚钱 （注：新手不应该这样做，因为没有能力应对突如其来的突破）
28:57 - 28:59
EN: betting that breakouts will fail.
ZH: 逢高做空、逢低做多、押注突破失败，更容易赚钱 （注：新手不应该这样做，因为没有能力应对突如其来的突破）
28:59 - 29:02
EN: A limit order is basically the opposite of a stop order.
ZH: 限价单基本上就是突破单的对手盘
29:02 - 29:06
EN: A stop order is betting that a trend is beginning;
ZH: 突破单押注趋势开始
29:06 - 29:10
EN: a limit order is betting that there’ll be a reversal instead of a trend.
ZH: 限价单押注会有反转，而不是进入趋势
29:13 - 29:18
EN: Better to be looking to buy below and sell above and not the opposite.
ZH: 在区间里最好逢低买入，逢高卖出，不要做反了
29:27 - 29:31
EN: Very often you’ll get very big signal bars inside of Trading Ranges.
ZH: 在震荡区间里，你经常会看到非常大的信号K线
29:32 - 29:35
EN: They look strong, but if you look to the left,
ZH: 它们看起来很强，但如果看左边
29:35 - 29:38
EN: you see the market’s in a Trading Range, so the context is bad.
ZH: 你发现市场处于震荡区间，所以背景并不好
29:38 - 29:42
EN: So, for example, here we have a very big bear bar.
ZH: 例如，这里有一根非常大的阴线
29:42 - 29:44
EN: Do you really want to be selling below that big bear bar?
ZH: 可以在它的下方卖出做空吗？
29:44 - 29:45
EN: No.
ZH: 不能
29:45 - 29:50
EN: It’s a big bar, so the risk is big – at a minimum the stop is above the bar,
ZH: 它的体积很大，所以止损很远——至少放在它的高点上方
29:50 - 29:54
EN: maybe all the way up here – and it’s forcing you to sell
ZH: 甚至放在这个高点上方； 它迫使你在区间的底部卖出做空
29:53 - 29:54
EN: at the bottom of a Trading Range.
ZH: 甚至放在这个高点上方； 它迫使你在区间的底部卖出做空
29:54 - 29:57
EN: So, the reward is small and the probability is bad.
ZH: 利润很小、胜率很低
29:57 - 30:01
EN: Probably more buyers than sellers below that big bear bar.
ZH: 在这根大阴线的下方，大概率会有更多人买入，而不是卖出
30:02 - 30:05
EN: The opposite’s true here with this big bull bar.
ZH: 这根大阳线也是一样
30:05 - 30:07
EN: The bar is big, so the stop is far.
ZH: 体积很大，所以止损很远
30:07 - 30:08
EN: The risk is great.
ZH: 风险很大
30:08 - 30:12
EN: There’s not much reward because it’ll probably remain in a Trading Range,
ZH: 剩余的利润不多了，因为市场大概率会继续震荡
30:12 - 30:15
EN: and the probability is not good buying in the top half,
ZH: 在上半部分做多的胜率也不高
30:15 - 30:18
EN: and therefore, more likely sellers above
ZH: 所以上方会有更多人卖出
30:18 - 30:21
EN: and better to make money selling with limit orders above.
ZH: 在上方挂限价卖单做空更容易赚钱
Slide 018
Time: 30:25
Bilingual Transcript
30:26 - 30:30
EN: I began by talking about my 80% rule, and that is that
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了我的80%法则——
30:30 - 30:33
EN: 80% of breakout attempts in a Trading Range fail.
ZH: 震荡区间里80%突破的尝试都会失败
30:33 - 30:36
EN: Traders should look for reversals instead of breakouts.
ZH: 交易者应该预期反转，而不是突破
30:36 - 30:42
EN: Next, I talked about characteristics of legs
ZH: 然后，我讲解了震荡区间中的波段， 和趋势中的波段有什么区别
30:39 - 30:42
EN: within a Trading Range in contrast to those within a trend.
ZH: 然后，我讲解了震荡区间中的波段， 和趋势中的波段有什么区别
30:43 - 30:47
EN: Finally, when the market’s in a Trading Range, traders should look to buy
ZH: 最后，如果市场处于震荡区间，
30:47 - 30:51
EN: in the bottom half and sell in the top half and take quick profits.
ZH: 交易者应该在底部做多、在顶部做空，并且赚快钱离场
30:55 - 30:56
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
30:56 - 30:59
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
30:59 - 31:03
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 如何交易震荡区间的第2节课，就先讲到这里