al-brooks-course
25B - Double Tops and Bottoms
Raw transcript and slide notes for 25B - Double Tops and Bottoms.
Overview
- Slides: 15
- Transcript segments: 531
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the second of two videos on Double Tops and Bottoms.
ZH: 这是双顶和双底的第2节课（共两节课）
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I want to begin by talking about how a Double Top is a test of resistance
ZH: 首先我会讲双顶是对阻力的测试（前期高点）
00:18 - 00:23
EN: (a prior high) and a Double Bottom is a test of support (a prior low).
ZH: 而双底是对支撑的测试（前期低点）
00:24 - 00:29
EN: I’ll then talk about failure of a reversal – a failed Double Top
ZH: 然后我会讲失败的反转—— 双顶反转失败，市场继续上涨；
00:29 - 00:34
EN: where the market keeps going higher or a failed Double Bottom
ZH: 以及双底反转失败，市场继续下跌
00:32 - 00:34
EN: and the market keeps going lower.
ZH: 以及双底反转失败，市场继续下跌
00:35 - 00:40
EN: Finally, I’ll talk about Measured Moves based
ZH: 最后，我会讲基于双顶和双底的MM目标位
00:38 - 00:40
EN: upon Double Tops and Double Bottoms.
ZH: 最后，我会讲基于双顶和双底的MM目标位
Slide 002
Time: 00:42
Bilingual Transcript
00:48 - 00:52
EN: Whenever the market does something, it usually has to test
ZH: 每当市场做了一些什么，通常需要先测试前期做的事情
00:52 - 00:55
EN: what it has done before it decides what to do next.
ZH: 然后再决定下一步该怎么走
00:56 - 01:01
EN: For example, if it’s selling off and reverses up, the reversal
ZH: 比如，如果市场下跌，然后反弹，
01:01 - 01:06
EN: is usually minor unless there’s first a test back down to the original low.
ZH: 市场通常需要重新测试前期的低点， 才有可能形成大反转
01:09 - 01:11
EN: Very strong bear trend.
ZH: 很强的下降趋势
01:11 - 01:13
EN: The first reversal up is probably minor.
ZH: 第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹 （注：尽管涨幅很大，但K线数量不够）
01:13 - 01:15
EN: The bear trend resumed.
ZH: 再次下跌
01:16 - 01:17
EN: The entire pattern is small.
ZH: 整个结构很小
01:17 - 01:22
EN: This is probably a minor reversal, yet it’s still a Double Bottom.
ZH: 大概率还是小反转，但它是一个双底
01:22 - 01:25
EN: What takes place here is you have bears selling all the way down.
ZH: 这里空头一路卖出做空
01:25 - 01:29
EN: Whenever the market’s in a strong trend, a breakout, or a very Tight Channel,
ZH: 当市场处于强趋势、突破或窄通道时
01:29 - 01:33
EN: the odds are it’s going lower, and the odds are the first reversal up
ZH: 大概率会继续下跌，而且第1次上涨只是小反转
01:33 - 01:38
EN: will be minor and the market will have to come back down and test those lows.
ZH: 市场通常要再次下跌，测试前期的低点
01:39 - 01:43
EN: The bear trend may continue down, or the bears may decide
ZH: 下降趋势可能会继续；或者如果空头认为
01:43 - 01:47
EN: that the rally was so strong that it’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 这里的反弹太强了，也许市场已经不是下降趋势了
01:47 - 01:50
EN: Instead, it might be a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 可能已经处于震荡区间，甚至上涨趋势
01:51 - 01:53
EN: The bears were selling all the way down.
ZH: 空头一路卖出做空
01:54 - 01:56
EN: They’re disappointed by this bar.
ZH: 他们对这根K线感到失望
01:56 - 01:58
EN: We got a reversal up.
ZH: 反弹上涨
01:58 - 02:04
EN: Some of the bears sold more here, and when they see these 2 strong bull bars
ZH: 一些空头会逢高加仓卖出更多， 但当他们看到这两根阳线收在最高
02:03 - 02:05
EN: and 3 consecutive bull bars, they decide
ZH: 一些空头会逢高加仓卖出更多， 但当他们看到这两根阳线收在最高 连续3根阳线反弹
02:05 - 02:08
EN: that maybe the market is going to pull back more.
ZH: 他们知道市场可能会有更大的反弹
02:08 - 02:12
EN: The bears who sold the absolute worst price – this close or that low
ZH: 于是那些正好卖在最低价的空头—— 在它的收盘价，或者在最低点卖出的空头，
02:12 - 02:16
EN: - then decide that if it gets near their original price,
ZH: 如果价格接近他们的初始入场价格，
02:16 - 02:18
EN: they’ll buy back their shorts.
ZH: 他们就会回补自己的空头仓位
02:18 - 02:19
EN: That’s what took place here,
ZH: 这就是这里所发生的事情
02:19 - 02:23
EN: and you can see the bears gave up and the market rallied.
ZH: 你可以看到空头放弃，市场反弹
02:23 - 02:25
EN: Yet as strong as this rally is,
ZH: 尽管这次反弹很强势
02:25 - 02:28
EN: it’s the first reversal up after a strong bear trend.
ZH: 这是强势下降趋势后的第1次向上反转
02:29 - 02:32
EN: When that’s the case, usually the reversal is minor
ZH: 在这种情况下，通常这不是大反转 （注：尽管小双底做多，已经有好几倍的盈亏比了）
02:32 - 02:35
EN: and the best the bulls get is either a Trading Range
ZH: 现在市场要么处于震荡区间
02:35 - 02:38
EN: or a bear flag and a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 要么是熊旗，然后下降趋势恢复
02:38 - 02:40
EN: Nobody knows at this point.
ZH: 此时还并不清晰（注：为什么不清晰？ 大涨，大跌，震荡区间的特征，没有明确的趋势）
02:42 - 02:45
EN: The bears finally get a chance to resume their trend,
ZH: 空头终于能够恢复他们的下降趋势了
02:45 - 02:49
EN: but big bear bar, tail, bad follow-through.
ZH: 但是大阴线，下影线很长，跟随很糟糕
02:50 - 02:53
EN: A couple bear bars with tails and then a bear doji bar.
ZH: 这些阴线都有下影线，然后是十字星
02:53 - 02:55
EN: The bulls tried to reverse up, going above that high.
ZH: 这根K线反弹到了前1根K线的高点双方
02:56 - 02:58
EN: It looks like the bears do not have a lot of conviction.
ZH: 看来空头并没有太多决心
02:59 - 03:03
EN: There are some bears who sold down here, this low or even that low,
ZH: 有一些空头在这里卖出，这里，甚至是这里，
03:03 - 03:09
EN: and they did not get out over here because they believed the reversal up
ZH: 他们没有在这里离场， 因为他们认为这只是一次反弹，是短暂的
03:07 - 03:09
EN: was minor and may be brief,
ZH: 他们没有在这里离场， 因为他们认为这只是一次反弹，是短暂的
03:09 - 03:13
EN: and the bear trend might continue down within a few bars.
ZH: 下降趋势会在几根K线内恢复（注：反弹确实足够大， 但不一定会变成上涨趋势，震荡区间的概率很高）
03:13 - 03:18
EN: They did not want to get out and then worry about how to get back in,
ZH: 他们不想离场之后再重新入场
03:18 - 03:21
EN: so they hold short, stop way up here.
ZH: 所以他们继续持有，依赖初始止损——放在起跌点上方
03:21 - 03:23
EN: The probability is high.
ZH: 空头的胜率很高
03:23 - 03:28
EN: Whenever you sell in a strong bear trend, the probability is high
ZH: 如果你在强下降趋势做空，胜率很高
03:27 - 03:31
EN: that you’re going to make money, but the risk/reward is bad.
ZH: 如果你在强下降趋势做空，胜率很高 但是盈亏比不好
03:31 - 03:32
EN: The stop is far away.
ZH: 因为止损很远
03:33 - 03:36
EN: The bears who did sell this low or that low,
ZH: 那些不幸卖在最低点的空头
03:36 - 03:39
EN: if they used a stop up here, did not get stopped out.
ZH: 如果他们把止损放在这里，止损没有被打到
03:39 - 03:44
EN: And they were able to get out around breakeven – with a profit if they scaled in.
ZH: 最终可以几乎不亏离场； 如果他们逢高加仓卖出，甚至还能赚钱
03:45 - 03:47
EN: If they sold this low and they sold the reversal up,
ZH: 如果空头卖在最低，然后在反弹时加仓，
03:47 - 03:51
EN: and then they sold more below a bear bar, below this bar,
ZH: 比如在这根阴线下方卖出更多 （注：止损远，还要考虑加仓，必须小仓位交易）
03:51 - 03:54
EN: and then got out around their original entry price,
ZH: 当价格跌回到初始入场价格附近的时候
03:55 - 04:00
EN: they made a profit on the second entry and got out around breakeven,
ZH: 他们加仓的部分可以赚较多的钱， 初始仓位小亏，接近打平
03:58 - 04:00
EN: maybe a small loss on the first entry.
ZH: 他们加仓的部分可以赚较多的钱， 初始仓位小亏，接近打平
04:00 - 04:02
EN: Maybe they buy above this reversal up.
ZH: 空头可以在这根阳线上方离场（仍然是赚钱的）
04:04 - 04:11
EN: To take that trade, their risk was great, but by having a bad risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 追空，并且逢高加仓，空头的风险很大，盈亏比很糟糕 （注：止损远，还要考虑加仓，必须小仓位交易）
04:11 - 04:15
EN: they got high probability of making a profit or at least avoiding a loss.
ZH: 但优势是胜率很高，大概率可以赚钱，至少是不亏
04:16 - 04:20
EN: What traders want to see on the reversal back down is what will happen.
ZH: 在趋势恢复下跌的时候，交易者会关注：
04:20 - 04:23
EN: Is the reversal down going to be very strong,
ZH: 下跌是否非常强势？
04:23 - 04:25
EN: and will it look like a resumption of the bear trend?
ZH: 是否能够延续下降趋势？
04:25 - 04:31
EN: Or will it be weak and try to reverse up once or even twice at the prior low?
ZH: 还是说它比较弱，可能会在前期低点再次上涨？
04:31 - 04:34
EN: The market is testing the prior low.
ZH: 市场正在测试前期的低点
04:34 - 04:36
EN: Here, it reversed up.
ZH: 这里，大幅反弹
04:37 - 04:41
EN: For the bulls to get their reversal, they need a major Higher Low.
ZH: 对于多头来说，想要反转成功的话， 他们需要让低点抬高
04:41 - 04:44
EN: They need a pattern that has 10-20 or more bars.
ZH: 他们需要一个包含10-20根或更多K线的结构
04:44 - 04:46
EN: That’s what they have here.
ZH: 这里已经有了
04:46 - 04:50
EN: This is the potential for a Major Trend Reversal on the test of this low.
ZH: 在测试这个低点的时候，已经具备了制造大反转的潜力
04:50 - 04:51
EN: We don’t know yet.
04:51 - 04:54
EN: Ultimately it did lead to a reversal of the trend.
ZH: 最终趋势确实反转了
04:56 - 05:00
EN: When the market got down to this price level, the bulls bought.
ZH: 之前当价格降到这个区域时，多头买入了
05:00 - 05:02
EN: It got down to it again here; they bought again.
ZH: 再次跌到这个价格，多头再次买入
05:03 - 05:07
EN: The bears saw the buying here, and they saw the buying here,
ZH: 空头看到了这里的买盘，看到了这里的买盘
05:07 - 05:10
EN: but they believed the reversal up was minor
ZH: 但他们认为这不会变成上涨趋势
05:10 - 05:12
EN: because it’s the first reversal in a strong bear trend.
ZH: 因为这是强下降趋势的第1次反转上涨
05:12 - 05:16
EN: However, they paid a lot of attention to the next leg down.
ZH: 然而，他们非常关注接下来的下跌
05:17 - 05:22
EN: They saw this, all traders saw this selloff as a test of this price level.
ZH: 所有的交易者都知道，正在测试前期的低点
05:23 - 05:27
EN: Would traders buy again and form a major reversal up,
ZH: 多头是否会再次买入，制造大反转，
05:27 - 05:30
EN: either a Trading Range or a bull trend?
ZH: 让市场进入震荡区间，甚至上涨趋势？
05:31 - 05:36
EN: Or would the bears break through that level and start a new leg down?
ZH: 还是说，空头会跌破这个支撑，制造新的下跌波段？
05:38 - 05:46
EN: You can see they reversed up, second entry buy.
ZH: 反转上涨，这里是第2做多入场点 第1入场点是这根阴线的上方， 但左边是连续6~7根阴线
05:41 - 05:46
EN: First entry above a bear bar after 6 or 7 bear bars.
ZH: 第1入场点是这根阴线的上方， 但左边是连续6~7根阴线
05:45 - 05:47
EN: Most traders will not take that.
ZH: 第1入场点是这根阴线的上方， 但左边是连续6~7根阴线 大部分交易者不会在这里开仓
05:47 - 05:52
EN: Now they have a second entry buy at the bottom of a Trading Range or possibly
ZH: 现在，在震荡区间的底部出现了第2做多入场点，
05:52 - 05:57
EN: a Major Trend Reversal, and then they have a bull bar here
ZH: 甚至有大反转的可能； 做多信号K线是一根收在一半以上的阳线
05:56 - 05:57
EN: closing above its midpoint.
ZH: 甚至有大反转的可能； 做多信号K线是一根收在一半以上的阳线
05:57 - 05:59
EN: They will buy above that bar.
ZH: 多头会在那根K线上方买入
05:59 - 06:01
EN: The bears will get out and the bulls will buy.
ZH: 空头会离场，多头会买入
06:01 - 06:05
EN: It’s a Double Bottom slightly Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的双底大反转（机会）
06:05 - 06:07
EN: We have a small Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底
06:07 - 06:08
EN: Traders bought here.
ZH: 有一些反弹
06:08 - 06:10
EN: The market tried to resume down.
ZH: 市场尝试恢复下跌
06:10 - 06:14
EN: And every time it gets to the prior low, it’s a test of that low.
ZH: 每次它到达前期低点时，都是对那个低点的测试
06:14 - 06:17
EN: Will it reverse up again? It did.
ZH: 会再次反转上涨吗？确实上涨了
06:17 - 06:21
EN: Again, we’re back down to that level where bulls bought before.
ZH: 现在又跌到了前期多头大量买入的位置
06:21 - 06:25
EN: Will the bears break through that level, or will the bulls buy again?
ZH: 是空头向下跌破，还是多头再次买入？
06:25 - 06:29
EN: This is a test of the prior low, and it formed a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是对前期低点的测试，并形成了一个双底
06:32 - 06:34
EN: Another test of the low.
ZH: 又一次下跌测试
06:34 - 06:41
EN: A test of this low and a test of this low, and again, the bulls bought strongly
ZH: 测试这个低点，也是测试哪个低点 （注：或者说，测试一个区域的支撑） 多头再次买入，而且比之前都更加强势
06:39 - 06:41
EN: - this time even more strongly than the other times.
ZH: 多头再次买入，而且比之前都更加强势
06:41 - 06:43
EN: A very big tail on the bottom of this bar.
ZH: 这根K线底部有非常显著的下影线
06:43 - 06:44
EN: Very big bar.
ZH: 这是一根很大的K线 （注：大概率与经济数据，或者财经新闻有关）
06:45 - 06:46
EN: This is a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一个双底
06:47 - 06:51
EN: A test of the prior low to see if bulls would again buy at that price.
ZH: 测试前期的低点，看看多头是否会再次买入
06:52 - 06:55
EN: It confirms this level as support.
ZH: 支撑位被确认
06:57 - 06:59
EN: It’s a Double Bottom with this low.
ZH: 它和这个低点形成了双底
06:59 - 07:02
EN: It broke below the entire Trading Range and reversed up violently.
ZH: 跌破震荡区间，然后剧烈地反转上涨
07:03 - 07:09
EN: A Lower Low Major Trend Reversal below this low
ZH: 低点降低的大反转——低于这个低点，和那个低点
07:06 - 07:09
EN: and below that low after a strong reversal up.
ZH: 低点降低的大反转——低于这个低点，和那个低点
07:09 - 07:11
EN: Minor reversal.
ZH: 这一段是小反转 （注：尽管涨幅很大，但K线数量不够）
07:11 - 07:14
EN: The next leg down led to a major reversal attempt.
ZH: 再次下跌之后，尝试大反转
07:14 - 07:19
EN: It failed, and then we have a new breakout, again a test of this low
ZH: 反转失败，空头突破，再次测试这个低点，
07:19 - 07:22
EN: and the bottom of the Trading Range, and it reversed up even more strongly.
ZH: 测试震荡区间的下沿，然后更加强势地反转上涨
07:22 - 07:24
EN: Another Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 再次尝试大反转（注：另一种理解方式是， 震荡区间中的假突破，以及大涨大跌、来回反转）
07:25 - 07:29
EN: It’s confirming this area as an important support level.
ZH: 确认了这个区域是重要的支撑位
07:29 - 07:32
EN: The bulls are overwhelming the bears at this price.
ZH: 在这个价格，买盘远大于卖盘
07:34 - 07:38
EN: The market is repeatedly trying to break below this level and failing.
ZH: 市场反复尝试跌破这个区域，但是都失败了
07:38 - 07:41
EN: And usually when it does something many, many times and fails,
ZH: 通常当市场多次尝试做某件事情，但是反复失败
07:41 - 07:44
EN: it then usually tries the opposite direction.
ZH: 它通常会开始往反方向尝试
07:44 - 07:47
EN: It concludes that it cannot get through this level,
ZH: 既然无法跌破这个区域
07:47 - 07:50
EN: and this level therefore is probably too low.
ZH: 说明这个价格太低了，跌过头了
07:50 - 07:53
EN: Next it has to find a price that’s too high.
ZH: 所以需要向上探寻公平价格
07:55 - 07:58
EN: Another test down.
ZH: 再次向下测试
07:58 - 08:00
EN: Will it break below this low? No.
ZH: 会跌破这个低点吗？不会
08:00 - 08:03
EN: The bulls came in again, forming another Double Bottom.
ZH: 多头再次买入，又形成了一个双底
08:11 - 08:13
EN: The bears are losing conviction.
ZH: 空头越来越不坚定
08:13 - 08:16
EN: Instead of selling at new lows, they’re selling rallies,
ZH: 不敢在新低追空了，而是在反弹时逢高卖出
08:16 - 08:20
EN: but they’re taking profits near the prior low.
ZH: 并且在前期低点附近止盈（只是剥头皮，赚块钱）
08:20 - 08:23
EN: They’re not confident that the bear trend will continue.
ZH: 因为他们也不认为会有新的下降趋势
08:23 - 08:28
EN: They’re thinking that the bear trend has been replaced by a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们认为下降趋势已经结束， 取而代之的是震荡区间
08:28 - 08:33
EN: Once it’s in a Trading Range, then bulls can try to get a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 一旦进入震荡区间，多头就可以尝试进行大反转
08:33 - 08:35
EN: The bulls are buying every selloff,
ZH: 每次下跌，多头都在买入
08:35 - 08:40
EN: confident that the bulls made money buying here earlier, and again here.
ZH: 因为之前在这里买入的多头都赚钱了， 这里买入也赚钱了
08:40 - 08:43
EN: They continue to buy there, confident that they’ll make money,
ZH: 所以他们继续在这里买入，确信自己可以赚钱，
08:43 - 08:45
EN: hoping that they’ll make a lot of money.
ZH: 也许可以赚很多钱（如果大反转成功的话）
08:49 - 08:52
EN: We have a bull trend and then a bear trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势，变成下降趋势
Slide 003
Time: 08:50
Bilingual Transcript
08:56 - 09:00
EN: The market turned down here, fairly strongly.
ZH: 市场在这里反转下跌，相当强势
09:00 - 09:02
EN: It broke below the bull trend line, the bull channel.
ZH: 跌破了上涨趋势线、上涨通道
09:06 - 09:10
EN: The bulls resumed, and look what happened when it got up to this price level.
ZH: 上涨趋势恢复，但是看在这个区域发生了什么？
09:10 - 09:14
EN: It sold off again, and then it got back there again, and it sold off again.
ZH: 价格再次下跌；之后又涨到这个区域，又下跌
09:16 - 09:19
EN: This is an important price level.
ZH: 这个价格区域很重要，是阻力
09:18 - 09:19
EN: It’s resistance.
ZH: 这个价格区域很重要，是阻力
09:19 - 09:22
EN: The market is having a hard time going above this price.
ZH: 市场很难突破这个价格
09:22 - 09:28
EN: This is confirming the area as resistance, and this is confirming it again.
ZH: 阻力位被确认，再次确认
09:29 - 09:34
EN: Bulls are buying at every instant on the way up, even at the high of this bar,
ZH: 多头在上涨时不断地买入，甚至在这么高的位置追涨
09:34 - 09:37
EN: confident the first reversal down will be minor,
ZH: （尽管不幸被套）他们确信第1次下跌只是小回调
09:37 - 09:39
EN: and the market will come back up to this level
ZH: 并且市场会回到前期高点
09:39 - 09:41
EN: and they’ll be able to get out at least breakeven.
ZH: 他们至少可以打平离场
09:42 - 09:47
EN: This rally made them whole.
ZH: 再次上涨，即使是追涨在最高点的多头， 现在也不亏钱了
09:44 - 09:47
EN: The bull who bought the worst price, way up here, is now whole.
ZH: 再次上涨，即使是追涨在最高点的多头， 现在也不亏钱了
09:48 - 09:52
EN: He’s probably relieved that he can sell out of his long at breakeven.
ZH: 他松了一口气，可以平本卖出、不亏钱
09:53 - 09:57
EN: When he sees this selloff, he probably concludes the bull trend is weaker.
ZH: 当他看到这里的抛售，他知道上涨趋势变弱了
09:57 - 09:59
EN: Maybe the market is in a Trading Range.
ZH: 也许市场已经进入震荡区间
09:59 - 10:03
EN: And if it’s in a Trading Range, he does not want to be long at the top.
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，那就不要在上沿继续持有多头仓位
10:03 - 10:08
EN: He uses the test of the prior high, the test of his entry price, to get out.
ZH: 所以他趁着市场测试前期高点的时候，打平离场
10:08 - 10:09
EN: He sells.
ZH: 多头卖出
10:09 - 10:12
EN: Other bulls see this strong reversal down.
ZH: 多头看到这里的下跌非常强势
10:12 - 10:16
EN: They know it’s minor; however, it’s a sign that the bears are strong.
ZH: 他们知道这大概率是小反转； 但是，这是空头变得强大的信号
10:16 - 10:22
EN: They’re concerned that the bears may be strong again
ZH: 他们担心当价格涨回这个区域之后，空头会再次大量卖出
10:19 - 10:23
EN: when it gets up to that level, and the bulls will sell out of their longs.
ZH: 他们担心当价格涨回这个区域之后，空头会再次大量卖出 所以多头赶紧卖出手中的仓位
10:23 - 10:30
EN: The bears will sell and take a chance that instead of simply a minor reversal,
ZH: 当空头再次卖出的时候，他们不只是想要小的回调
10:29 - 10:34
EN: now we’ll get a Double Top, and possibly a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 当空头再次卖出的时候，他们不只是想要小的回调 而是想制造双顶大反转
10:37 - 10:38
EN: A Double Top.
ZH: 双顶
10:38 - 10:41
EN: Does not matter that it’s a slightly Higher High.
ZH: 第2个高点略微更高一些
10:41 - 10:44
EN: In this particular case, this Double Top is also an Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 这里，这个双顶恰好也是一个扩张三角形
10:44 - 10:49
EN: We went up here, turned down, turned down higher and higher,
ZH: 上涨，回调，高点不断抬高
10:49 - 10:50
EN: and we have a Lower Low.
ZH: 同时低点在降低
10:50 - 10:57
EN: Therefore, it’s a Double Top and it’s also a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以这是一个双顶，也是高点抬高的大反转
10:57 - 11:01
EN: Every Expanding Triangle top is a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 每个扩张三角顶部，都是高点抬高的大反转
11:01 - 11:04
EN: Even without the Expanding Triangle, it’s still a major reversal.
ZH: 即使没有扩张三角形，它仍然是大反转的结构
11:04 - 11:09
EN: We had a very strong minor reversal followed by a test of the high,
ZH: 非常强势的小反转，然后测试前期高点
11:09 - 11:12
EN: and the market found sellers again.
ZH: 卖盘再次出现
11:12 - 11:14
EN: This is a Double Top.
ZH: 这是一个双顶
11:14 - 11:16
EN: It’s a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 是高点抬高的大反转
11:16 - 11:20
EN: Then we have a slightly Lower High, a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后形成了更低的高点——高点降低的大反转
11:24 - 11:27
EN: The markets are constantly looking for confirmation.
ZH: 市场在不断确认阻力位
11:28 - 11:30
EN: It sold off strongly from this level.
ZH: 之前从这个价格大幅下跌
11:30 - 11:35
EN: What will happen if it gets up there again? Will it sell off again? And it did.
ZH: 涨回来之后，会再次下跌吗？确实下跌了
11:36 - 11:39
EN: It increases the probability that you’ll get a reversal,
ZH: 这就增加了大反转的可能性
11:39 - 11:43
EN: or at least an end of the bull trend and a conversion into a Trading Range.
ZH: 或者说，至少上涨趋势结束、进入震荡区间的概率增加了
11:45 - 11:50
EN: Higher High Major Trend Reversal, probably at least 10 bars, two legs down.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转，至少预期10根K线，两段下跌
11:50 - 11:52
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
11:52 - 11:57
EN: Here we got far more than 10 bars down, and we got far more than two legs.
ZH: 后续的大反转远远不止10根K线， 也不止两段下跌——
11:57 - 12:00
EN: One, two, three, four, five.
ZH: 1，2，3，4，5
12:05 - 12:08
EN: Strong selling at the new high.
ZH: 在新高遇到了大量抛售
12:08 - 12:09
EN: The bulls are giving up.
ZH: 多头开始放弃
12:09 - 12:11
EN: You can see they gave up here.
ZH: 你可以看到多头在这里放弃了
12:11 - 12:15
EN: The bears see the bulls giving up, and they’re selling as well.
ZH: 空头看到多头放弃，他们更加激进地卖出
12:17 - 12:18
EN: Micro Double Top.
ZH: 小双顶
12:18 - 12:21
EN: Up, down, a little bit up, down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；略微上涨，下跌
12:21 - 12:25
EN: Traders will sell below this bull bar, the neckline of this Micro Double Top.
ZH: 交易者会在这个阳线下方卖出——这是小双顶的颈线
12:25 - 12:27
EN: Then we have a Double Top bear flag here,
ZH: 然后这里有一个双顶熊旗
12:27 - 12:31
EN: which is also a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 同时也是高点降低的大反转
12:31 - 12:34
EN: A Low 2 – Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 低2做空点——低1，低2
12:34 - 12:36
EN: Traders will sell below the low of this bar,
ZH: 交易者会在这根K线的低点下方卖出
12:36 - 12:38
EN: taking a chance that we’re going to get a swing down.
ZH: 押注会有下跌的波段
Slide 004
Time: 12:40
Bilingual Transcript
12:45 - 12:48
EN: The bull trend needs Higher Highs, and more importantly,
ZH: 上涨趋势需要高点不断抬高，但更重要的是，
12:48 - 12:53
EN: the bull trend needs Higher Lows, especially major Higher Lows.
ZH: 需要低点不断抬高，尤其是重要的低点（不能被跌破）
12:53 - 12:59
EN: A major Higher Low is a Higher Low that results in a strong rally,
ZH: 如果某个低点的后面，是强势突破创新高， 那么它就是重要的低点
12:57 - 12:59
EN: usually to a new high.
ZH: 如果某个低点的后面，是强势突破创新高， 那么它就是重要的低点
12:59 - 13:02
EN: This is more or less a minor Higher Low.
ZH: 这个低点并没有那么重要
13:02 - 13:05
EN: It has a new rally, but the bars are not all that big.
ZH: 尽管上涨到了新的高点，但K线并不是很大
13:05 - 13:07
EN: There’s not much buying here.
ZH: 不是特别强势
13:07 - 13:09
EN: This is also a minor Higher Low.
ZH: 同理，之前这个低点也是相对次要的
13:09 - 13:11
EN: This is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 但是它是重要的低点
13:11 - 13:17
EN: The bears tried to reverse strongly; the bulls reversed back up
ZH: 空头尝试反转下跌；但是多头更强势地买入，创新高
13:14 - 13:17
EN: even stronger and got a new high.
ZH: 空头尝试反转下跌；但是多头更强势地买入，创新高
13:18 - 13:20
EN: As long as the market is staying above this low,
ZH: 只要价格维持在这个低点的上方
13:20 - 13:24
EN: the bulls will assume the bull trend is intact.
ZH: 多头就假设上涨趋势仍然完好
13:24 - 13:28
EN: But once it falls below that low, bulls and bears will conclude
ZH: 然而，一旦它被跌破，多头和空头就知道，
13:28 - 13:30
EN: that the bull trend has ended.
ZH: 上涨趋势已经结束了
13:30 - 13:36
EN: The market then has either evolved into a Trading Range, or into a bear trend.
ZH: 市场要么进入震荡区间，要么变成下降趋势
13:42 - 13:46
EN: We have a Double Top.
ZH: 双顶，这是双顶的颈线
13:43 - 13:46
EN: This is the neckline of the Double Top.
ZH: 双顶，这是双顶的颈线
13:46 - 13:52
EN: If the market falls below this low, the bears will assume that the bull trend
ZH: 当价格跌破颈线，空头就预期上涨趋势已经结束
13:52 - 13:54
EN: has ended, and maybe they’ll get a swing down.
ZH: 也许能获得下跌的波段
13:55 - 14:00
EN: This is a strong rally to a new high, so it’s a very important Higher Low.
ZH: 市场从这个低点强势上涨创新高， 所以它是一个非常重要的低点
14:00 - 14:02
EN: It’s also the neckline of this Double Top.
ZH: 同时也是这个双顶的颈线
14:02 - 14:05
EN: You can see we have a breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 阴线跌破，而且还有跟随K线
14:05 - 14:08
EN: Probably going to fall for about a Measured Move.
ZH: 很可能会继续下跌到MM目标位
14:08 - 14:10
EN: The bull trend tried to resume.
ZH: 上涨趋势尝试恢复
14:10 - 14:13
EN: It tested the breakout point, a little bit above the breakout point,
ZH: 它测试了突破点，反弹略高于突破点
14:13 - 14:15
EN: and then reversed down again.
ZH: 然后继续下跌
14:15 - 14:20
EN: That’s common, to get a breakout below a key support level.
ZH: 这很常见，当关键的支撑位被跌破，
14:20 - 14:22
EN: The support becomes resistance.
ZH: 支撑变成了阻力
14:22 - 14:25
EN: The market tests it, and then resumes back down.
ZH: 突破回测之后，趋势继续下跌
14:30 - 14:33
EN: These 2 bars represent the bulls giving up.
ZH: 这两根K线代表着多头的放弃
14:33 - 14:37
EN: They’re disappointed, they exited, and they’ll wait to buy again lower.
ZH: 多头失望离场，等待在更低的位置再次买入
14:41 - 14:42
EN: And the bears know that.
ZH: 空头知道这一点
14:42 - 14:46
EN: The bears know the bulls will give up below such a strong rally.
ZH: 空头知道多头会把止损放在这个低点下方
14:46 - 14:49
EN: The bears will sell below the neckline of this Double Top.
ZH: 所以空头会在双顶颈线的下方卖出做空
14:49 - 14:50
EN: It’s a major Higher Low.
ZH: 这是一个重要的低点
14:50 - 14:53
EN: Then here, the bull trend is trying to resume.
ZH: 这里有一些反弹，
14:53 - 14:58
EN: The bears expect at least a second leg down after a 2-bar bear breakout.
ZH: 但是在这两根大阴线的突破之后， 空头预期至少会有第2段下跌
14:58 - 15:01
EN: They’ll sell below this bar or below that bear bar.
ZH: 他们会在这根K线，或那个阴线的下方卖出做空
15:01 - 15:05
EN: Now we broke above the resistance level, the neckline of the Double Top.
ZH: 现在价格回测了双顶的颈线
15:05 - 15:12
EN: Bears assume the reversal up will fail, and they’ll look to sell
ZH: 空头押注反转会失败，他们在这根阴线下方卖出—— 这里有一个双顶；
15:09 - 15:12
EN: either below this bear bar – we have a Double Top here
ZH: 空头押注反转会失败，他们在这根阴线下方卖出—— 这里有一个双顶；
15:12 - 15:15
EN: - or below this Micro Double Top.
ZH: 或者，在这个小双顶下方做空
15:15 - 15:16
EN: 3 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 连续3根阳线（有买压）
15:16 - 15:20
EN: A lot of bears prefer to take a second entry short.
ZH: 所以很多空头更倾向于在第2做空入场点卖出
15:20 - 15:23
EN: So instead of selling below this bear bar, they’ll sell below this bear bar.
ZH: 所以他们不会在这个阴线下方卖出， 而是在这个阴线下方卖出
15:23 - 15:28
EN: It’s a second entry short, Double Top test of the neckline.
ZH: 在反弹回测颈线之后，这是第2做空入场点
15:31 - 15:33
EN: Traders look for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 交易者在寻找下方的MM目标位
15:33 - 15:34
EN: We have a Double Top.
ZH: 双顶
15:34 - 15:39
EN: The Measured Move might be based upon the lower of the two highs
ZH: MM目标位可能是从较低的高点到颈线 （往下翻一倍）
15:38 - 15:42
EN: and then the neckline, or it could even be the higher of the two highs.
ZH: MM目标位可能是从较低的高点到颈线 （往下翻一倍） 也可能是从较高的高点到颈线
15:43 - 15:46
EN: Traders will first look at the newer support level,
ZH: 交易者会先看新的支撑位——
15:46 - 15:48
EN: the Measured Move based upon the Lower High.
ZH: 从较低高点到颈线的MM目标位
15:48 - 15:52
EN: If it falls below that level, they’ll then look at a Measured Move
ZH: 如果这个目标位被跌破， 他们再看下一个目标位——
15:52 - 15:56
EN: based upon the higher of the two highs and see what the market does there.
ZH: 从较高的高点到颈线的MM目标位， 然后观察市场在那里的行为
15:56 - 15:59
EN: And you can see – I don’t have it drawn in,
ZH: 我没有把第2个MM目标位画出来，但你可以看到
15:59 - 16:02
EN: but this is about the Measured Move based upon the higher of the two highs.
ZH: 从第2个高点到颈线的MM，大约就是在这个位置
Slide 005
Time: 16:05
Bilingual Transcript
16:10 - 16:12
EN: A bear trend needs Lower Lows.
ZH: 下降趋势需要低点不断降低
16:12 - 16:17
EN: More importantly, it needs Lower Highs – lower major highs.
ZH: 更重要的是，它需要高点不断降低， 尤其是重要的高点（不能被突破）
16:17 - 16:23
EN: A major high is a high that has a strong selloff, preferably to a new low.
ZH: 如果之后强势下跌创新低，那么这就是一个重要的高点
16:24 - 16:29
EN: As long as the market is forming major Lower Highs, it’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 只要重要的高点不断降低，那么市场就处于下降趋势
16:29 - 16:33
EN: If it goes above a major Lower High here, maybe here,
ZH: 如果重要的高点，比如这里、这里，被突破
16:33 - 16:40
EN: the bear trend probably has ended, and the market has either evolved
ZH: 那么下降趋势很有可能已经结束， 市场要么处于震荡区间，要么反转成上涨趋势
16:37 - 16:40
EN: into a Trading Range or reversed into a bull trend.
ZH: 市场要么处于震荡区间，要么反转成上涨趋势
16:44 - 16:49
EN: We tried to sell off.
ZH: 空头在努力地抛售，但是在这里形成了双底
16:46 - 16:49
EN: A fairly decent selloff, yet we Double Bottomed here.
ZH: 空头在努力地抛售，但是在这里形成了双底
16:49 - 16:51
EN: Slightly Lower Low Double Bottom.
ZH: 低点略微降低的双底
16:51 - 16:53
EN: We tried to reverse up; it failed.
ZH: 第1次尝试上涨，失败
16:53 - 16:57
EN: We tried to reverse up a second time, and we got 4 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 再次尝试反转上涨，这次制造了连续4根阳线
16:57 - 17:02
EN: closing above their midpoints and closing
ZH: 全都收在高位，而且突破了这个双底的颈线
17:00 - 17:02
EN: above the neckline of this Double Bottom.
ZH: 全都收在高位，而且突破了这个双底的颈线
17:03 - 17:07
EN: That means most traders conclude that the bear trend has ended,
ZH: 这意味着大多数交易者认为下降趋势已经结束
17:07 - 17:14
EN: and the market has either evolved into a Trading Range
ZH: 市场要么变成震荡区间，要么变成上涨波段，甚至是上涨趋势
17:10 - 17:14
EN: or into a bull swing or a bull trend.
ZH: 市场要么变成震荡区间，要么变成上涨波段，甚至是上涨趋势
17:24 - 17:27
EN: The bears are clearly disappointed.
ZH: 显然，空头会感到失望
17:27 - 17:29
EN: More and more bears are giving up here.
ZH: 越来越多的空头正在放弃
17:29 - 17:34
EN: By the end of this bull breakout, bears are definitely disappointed.
ZH: 看到这么强势的多头突破，空头肯定会感到失望
17:34 - 17:40
EN: They expect higher prices, so they’ll exit, exit for any reason.
ZH: 他们知道还会继续上涨，所以他们赶紧离场； 空头在上涨时不断离场
17:39 - 17:40
EN: They were exiting all the way up.
ZH: 他们知道还会继续上涨，所以他们赶紧离场； 空头在上涨时不断离场
17:40 - 17:43
EN: They were giving up during this 4-bar rally.
ZH: 空头在4根阳线上涨期间放弃了
17:43 - 17:46
EN: And they’ll wait to sell higher – maybe here, maybe here.
ZH: 然后他们等待在更高的价格做空—— 也许在这里，或者这里
17:49 - 17:55
EN: The bulls see the strong rally, and they see the market breaking
ZH: 多头看到强势的反弹，看到双底的颈线被突破
17:53 - 17:55
EN: above the neckline of the Double Bottom.
ZH: 多头看到强势的反弹，看到双底的颈线被突破
17:55 - 17:59
EN: The bulls will buy on a stop just above this high, expecting a Measured Move up
ZH: 多头会在这个高点上方挂突破买单， 预期会有向上的MM目标位
17:59 - 18:06
EN: and at least two legs up – one, pullback, two or one, pullback, two.
ZH: 而且至少是两段上涨——1，回调，2； 或者1，回调，2
18:09 - 18:12
EN: Minimum target, a Measured Move based upon the height of the Double Bottom,
ZH: 最低目标是基于双底高度的MM目标位
18:12 - 18:15
EN: this low slightly below that low.
ZH: 这个低点略低于那个低点
18:15 - 18:19
EN: The market broke strongly above that high, went up to the top of the bear trend.
ZH: 市场强势突破了这个目标位， 一直涨到下降趋势的起跌点
18:23 - 18:24
EN: A Wedge selloff.
ZH: 楔形下降通道
18:24 - 18:25
EN: Three pushes down.
ZH: 3次向下推动
18:25 - 18:30
EN: Spike, pullback, second push, pullback, third or fourth push down.
ZH: 急速下跌，反弹；第2推，反弹； 然后第3或第4次下跌
18:30 - 18:33
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
18:33 - 18:38
EN: And it’s a breakout test – a test of the breakout
ZH: 这也是突破回测——突破双顶颈线之后的回调测试
18:35 - 18:38
EN: above the neckline of the Double Bottom.
ZH: 这也是突破回测——突破双顶颈线之后的回调测试
18:38 - 18:39
EN: Good support level.
ZH: 这是很好的支撑位
18:39 - 18:41
EN: It was resistance; the bulls broke above it.
ZH: 它之前是阻力，被多头突破之后
18:41 - 18:45
EN: It’s support here, and it’s support again here.
ZH: 变成了支撑，这里再次提供支撑
18:45 - 18:47
EN: So now we have a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 所以这是双底牛旗
18:47 - 18:51
EN: Bull trend, pullback to a Double Bottom.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调形成双底
18:51 - 18:52
EN: Bulls will buy the reversal up,
ZH: 多头会买入做多
18:52 - 18:56
EN: especially since it’s a Wedge Double Bottom with this low.
ZH: 尤其这是一个楔形熊旗，而且和它组成了双底
Slide 006
Time: 18:58
Bilingual Transcript
19:02 - 19:03
EN: The market’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场处于震荡区间
19:03 - 19:05
EN: We have a bull trend and a Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后开始做多
19:05 - 19:07
EN: We could get trend reversal down.
ZH: 有反转下跌的可能
19:07 - 19:09
EN: The bears see a Double Top.
ZH: 空头把它看作双顶
19:09 - 19:11
EN: We could get trend resumption up.
ZH: 也有可能继续上涨
19:11 - 19:15
EN: The bulls see a bear channel, bull flag, and then a breakout,
ZH: 多头认为这是下降通道，是牛旗；
19:15 - 19:18
EN: and then a pullback to a Double Bottom.
ZH: 向上突破，然后回调，形成双底
19:18 - 19:20
EN: They expect the bull trend to resume up.
ZH: 们预期上涨趋势会恢复
19:24 - 19:27
EN: Any time the market goes sideways for 20 or more bars,
ZH: 每当市场横盘超过20根K线
19:27 - 19:31
EN: I stop using the term “pullback” and I begin to use the term “Trading Range.”
ZH: 我就不再说它是“回调”， 而是开始用“震荡区间”这个词
19:31 - 19:36
EN: A pullback is a small Trading Range where you assume the trend will continue.
ZH: 回调是一个小震荡区间，你预期趋势会继续；
19:37 - 19:41
EN: Once the pullback grows to 20 or more bars, I use the term “Trading Range,”
ZH: 一旦回调发展到20根或更多K线， 我就开始用“震荡区间”这个词
19:41 - 19:45
EN: and when I say that, I mean the probability for trend resumption up
ZH: 当我这样说时，我的意思是： 趋势恢复上涨的概率，
19:45 - 19:49
EN: is about the same as the probability for trend reversal down.
ZH: 和反转下跌的概率已经几乎相等
19:49 - 19:52
EN: Bulls and bears are balanced.
ZH: 多空双方的力量是均衡的
19:52 - 19:54
EN: Whenever the market is in a Trading Range,
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，
19:54 - 19:58
EN: it always has both a reasonable buy signal and a reasonable sell signal.
ZH: 总是既有合理的做多信号，也有合理的做空信号
20:01 - 20:03
EN: For the bears, they have a Double Top.
ZH: 对于空头来说，他们有一个双顶
20:03 - 20:06
EN: You can call it a slightly Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 你可以说它是高点略微降低的大反转（机会）
20:06 - 20:09
EN: Bull trend, bear breakout, testing the old high
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破，测试前期高点，
20:09 - 20:13
EN: and trying to reverse down, and a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 并尝试反转下跌；这里还有一个小双顶
20:13 - 20:16
EN: Up, pullback, up again, maybe a little Triangle.
ZH: 上涨，下跌，再上涨，也可以看作是小三角形
20:16 - 20:19
EN: It’s a sell signal below that inside bar.
ZH: 空头会在那根孕线下方做空
20:19 - 20:22
EN: However, it did not succeed.
ZH: 然而大反转没能成功 （注：不过空头至少赚到了剥头皮的利润）
20:24 - 20:27
EN: For the bulls, they see this as a bull flag with a strong reversal up.
ZH: 在多头看来，这个牛旗被强势突破了
20:27 - 20:32
EN: They’ll buy above this bar, or they’ll wait for this Wedge bull flag
ZH: 他们会在这根K线上方买入， 或者他们会在这个楔形牛旗上方买入，
20:31 - 20:36
EN: and buy above here, or they’ll buy above this Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 他们会在这根K线上方买入， 或者他们会在这个楔形牛旗上方买入， 或者他们会在这个双底牛旗上方买入
20:37 - 20:42
EN: You can also call it a Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head,
ZH: 你也可以说它是头肩底——左肩，头，右肩，
20:42 - 20:45
EN: and then right shoulder where the right shoulder is a Double Bottom.
ZH: 右肩有双底的结构
20:50 - 20:54
EN: Every pattern, no matter how good, fails some of the time,
ZH: 不管一个结构看起来多么漂亮，都有可能会失败
Slide 007
Time: 20:50
Bilingual Transcript
20:54 - 20:57
EN: and that includes Double Tops and Double Bottoms.
ZH: 这包括双顶和双底
Slide 008
Time: 20:57
Bilingual Transcript
21:01 - 21:04
EN: We have a Double Top – this high, that high,
ZH: 双顶——这个高点，那个高点
21:04 - 21:08
EN: this high, that high, and this high and that high.
ZH: 这个高点，那个高点；还有这个高点和那个高点
21:08 - 21:10
EN: The bears are trying to get a reversal down.
ZH: 空头尝试反转下跌
21:11 - 21:16
EN: The bears who shorted will put their stops
ZH: 做空的空头会把止损放在双顶的上面， 放在这里的某个地方
21:13 - 21:16
EN: above the Double Top, somewhere over here.
ZH: 做空的空头会把止损放在双顶的上面， 放在这里的某个地方
21:20 - 21:26
EN: Many choices for a neckline,
ZH: 有多个选择，因为大部分时候高点并不完全一样高
21:22 - 21:26
EN: because most of the time the tops are not exactly at the same level.
ZH: 有多个选择，因为大部分时候高点并不完全一样高
21:27 - 21:30
EN: In any case, this is an obvious Double Top.
ZH: 总之，这是一个明显的双顶
21:30 - 21:34
EN: If it breaks above it, the market may rally for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 如果它被向上突破，市场可能会上涨到MM目标位
21:34 - 21:36
EN: The bears expect a Double Top here
ZH: 空头预期这是双顶反转，
21:36 - 21:40
EN: and here to fall below the neckline for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 跌破颈线，然后跌到MM目标位
21:41 - 21:46
EN: If it breaks above the Double Top, traders expect a Measured Move up.
ZH: 如果反而向上突破，交易者也会预期MM目标位的涨幅
21:49 - 21:51
EN: We have a small Double Bottom here, a bigger Double Bottom
ZH: 这里有一个小的双底，这是更大的双底
21:51 - 21:53
EN: - this low and that low.
ZH: ——这个低点和那个低点
21:54 - 22:00
EN: I could also do a Measured Move based upon this big Double Top
ZH: 也可以基于这个大双顶的高度， 往上翻一倍作为MM目标位
21:58 - 22:00
EN: using this neckline for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 也可以基于这个大双顶的高度， 往上翻一倍作为MM目标位
22:00 - 22:02
EN: I always look at the nearest target first.
ZH: 我总是先看最近的目标
22:02 - 22:06
EN: This is a Trading Range within a bigger Trading Range.
ZH: 这个小震荡区间处在更大的区间内部 （所以先用它来画MM）
22:09 - 22:13
EN: If it goes beyond the first target, then I look at higher targets.
ZH: 如果第1个目标被突破，我再看更远的目标
22:15 - 22:18
EN: For example, maybe the market is using
ZH: 比如，用这个双顶到颈线的高度，
22:18 - 22:20
EN: this Double Top neckline for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 往上翻一倍作为MM目标位
22:20 - 22:24
EN: If it goes above that, then I’ll look at a Double Top here
ZH: 如果继续上涨，那么我会用这个双顶到颈线的高度，
22:24 - 22:28
EN: and here with this neckline, and look at a Measured Move up there to see
ZH: 往上翻一倍作为MM目标位，
22:28 - 22:30
EN: what the market does when it gets there.
ZH: 然后看市场到达那里之后会怎么做
22:30 - 22:34
EN: You can see here, we have a Double Top at that Measured Move,
ZH: 可以看到，市场在MM目标位形成了双顶
22:34 - 22:36
EN: and the market’s starting to turn down.
ZH: 然后开始下跌
22:36 - 22:39
EN: A good location for the bulls to take at least partial profits.
ZH: 对于多头来说，这是一个非常好的止盈位置
Slide 009
Time: 22:42
Bilingual Transcript
22:44 - 22:45
EN: A bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势
22:45 - 22:47
EN: We tried to get a reversal.
ZH: 尝试反转上涨
22:47 - 22:49
EN: Minor reversal.
ZH: 只是小反弹
22:50 - 22:52
EN: We tested the prior low.
ZH: 测试了前期的低点
22:52 - 22:54
EN: Traders are looking for a possible Double Bottom.
ZH: 交易者在寻找潜在的双底
22:54 - 22:58
EN: First reversal up, pretty Tight Channel.
ZH: 下降通道很窄，大多数交易者不会在第1次上涨时买入
22:57 - 22:58
EN: Most traders will not buy that.
ZH: 下降通道很窄，大多数交易者不会在第1次上涨时买入
22:58 - 23:02
EN: Then we got a second reversal up here or here; they will buy this.
ZH: 然后在这里或这里，有第2次反转上涨； 多头会在这里买入
23:02 - 23:06
EN: But weak entry bar, weak follow-through,
ZH: 但入场K线很弱，跟随很弱
23:06 - 23:08
EN: and then weak follow-through all through here.
ZH: 这里的跟随也很弱
23:08 - 23:11
EN: This does not look like it’s going to be a successful reversal.
ZH: 这看起来不像是一个成功的反转
23:13 - 23:17
EN: Traders therefore will start to wonder if the Double Bottom will fail
ZH: 因此，交易者会开始怀疑，双底是否会失败，
23:17 - 23:19
EN: and the market will fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 市场可能会下跌到MM目标位
23:19 - 23:23
EN: Traders will look to sell on a breakout below the Double Bottom,
ZH: 空头会在双底被突破时卖出做空
23:23 - 23:25
EN: and they’ll look for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 并且预期跌到MM目标位
23:27 - 23:31
EN: They’ll sell below that low, looking for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 他们会在那个低点下方卖出，预期跌到MM目标位
23:31 - 23:32
EN: We have a pretty good breakout.
ZH: 非常不错的空头突破
23:32 - 23:35
EN: Probably we’ll get a second leg down.
ZH: 大概率会有第2段下跌
23:35 - 23:40
EN: We came up and tested the bottom of the Double Bottom,
ZH: 反弹，测试了双底的下沿，回测突破点，然后继续下跌
23:38 - 23:40
EN: the breakout point, and we sold off again.
ZH: 反弹，测试了双底的下沿，回测突破点，然后继续下跌
23:40 - 23:45
EN: We sold off at this price, we tested that price again, we sold off again.
ZH: 之前在这里下跌，现在测试了它之后，再次下跌
23:45 - 23:50
EN: Bears will sell below this bear bar as well, looking for a swing down.
ZH: 空头也会在这个阴线下方卖出，预期会有下跌的波段
23:50 - 23:55
EN: They’ll sell the breakout just below this low on a stop,
ZH: 他们会在这个低点下方挂突破卖单
23:55 - 23:57
EN: and then they’ll sell the reversal down.
ZH: 并且会在反弹之后继续卖出做空
Slide 010
Time: 24:00
Bilingual Transcript
24:02 - 24:05
EN: Double Tops and Double Bottoms, whether they fail or succeed,
ZH: 双顶和双底，无论它们的反转失败还是成功
24:05 - 24:08
EN: often lead to Measured Moves.
ZH: 通常都会去到某个MM目标位
Slide 011
Time: 24:09
Bilingual Transcript
24:12 - 24:14
EN: The market rallied strongly.
ZH: 强势上涨
24:14 - 24:19
EN: The bears tried to resume the small bear trend, and it rallied up again.
ZH: 空头尝试反转，但是市场再次上涨
24:19 - 24:25
EN: We have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一个双底，这是双底的颈线
24:22 - 24:25
EN: This is the neckline of the Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一个双底，这是双底的颈线
24:25 - 24:29
EN: If it goes above that neckline, traders will look for a Measured Move up,
ZH: 如果颈线被向上突破，交易者会预期涨到MM目标位
24:29 - 24:33
EN: and they’ll use that Measured Move target as an area to take profits.
ZH: 他们会把那个MM目标位作为止盈的区域
24:34 - 24:39
EN: Good looking buy signal bar – two legs down,
ZH: 漂亮的做多信号K线——两段下跌，1，反弹，2； 和它形成了双底
24:37 - 24:39
EN: one, pullback, two, and a Double Bottom.
ZH: 漂亮的做多信号K线——两段下跌，1，反弹，2； 和它形成了双底
24:39 - 24:41
EN: Traders will buy on a reversal.
ZH: 多头会在反转上涨时买入
24:41 - 24:45
EN: They’ll buy just above the high of this bull bar and get filled right here.
ZH: 他们会在这个阳线的高点上方买入，订单会在这里成交
24:46 - 24:51
EN: Some traders bought above here and might have held long with a stop below there.
ZH: 一些前期在这里买入的多头，可能会一直持有， 依赖下方的初始止损
24:51 - 24:55
EN: Most traders probably would have gotten out below one of these bear bars,
ZH: 大多数人会在这里某个阴线的下方离场
24:55 - 24:58
EN: and it looks like a lot of traders gave up here
ZH: 看起来多头在这里放弃了
24:58 - 25:01
EN: - yet the market stayed above that low.
ZH: 然而价格维持在那个低点的上方
25:02 - 25:06
EN: If traders did exit their longs, they’ll buy on the reversal up,
ZH: 如果多头之前暂时离场了， 他们会在反转上涨时再次入场
25:06 - 25:08
EN: betting on a successful Double Bottom.
ZH: 押注双底反转可以成功
25:10 - 25:12
EN: Here’s the Measured Move.
ZH: MM目标位在这里
25:12 - 25:14
EN: Double Bottom, neckline, Measured Move up.
ZH: 双底，颈线，MM目标位
25:14 - 25:16
EN: Look what took place there.
ZH: 看看在那里发生了什么
25:16 - 25:17
EN: We reversed down.
ZH: 市场反转下跌
25:17 - 25:20
EN: We reversed down because the bulls who bought for any reason,
ZH: 因为之前买入的多头，不管他们在哪里买的——
25:20 - 25:24
EN: either here or buying closes, or buying a bull flag here,
ZH: 在这里，在阳线的收盘，或者在牛旗买入，
25:24 - 25:27
EN: or a High 2 bull flag here – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2
ZH: 或者在高2牛旗买入——1，回调，2——
25:29 - 25:32
EN: - a lot of them have limit orders to take partial profits here.
ZH: 他们都会把限价卖单挂在这里，至少止盈一部分
25:32 - 25:34
EN: Others will sell on the reversal down.
ZH: 一些多头也会在反转下跌时卖出
25:34 - 25:37
EN: Micro Double Top – up, pullback, up again.
ZH: 小双顶——上涨，回调，再上涨
25:37 - 25:41
EN: They’ll sell below that bar or maybe sell below these bear bars.
ZH: 多头会在那根K线下方卖出， 或者在这些阴线下方卖出
25:42 - 25:46
EN: Bears know the bulls will take profits, and some bears will sell
ZH: 空头知道多头会在这里止盈， 所以一些空头会挂限价卖单做空
25:45 - 25:48
EN: with limit orders either there or on the reversal down,
ZH: 空头知道多头会在这里止盈， 所以一些空头会挂限价卖单做空 或者在反转下跌时卖出做空，
25:48 - 25:50
EN: hoping for at least a scalp down.
ZH: 期待至少能赚到剥头皮的利润
Slide 012
Time: 25:54
Bilingual Transcript
25:59 - 26:00
EN: Double Bottom.
ZH: 双底
26:04 - 26:08
EN: We have a very deep pullback from this rally, but it held above this low.
ZH: 非常深度的回调，但是仍然在这个低点的上方
26:08 - 26:10
EN: The bulls see that as bullish.
ZH: 多头认为这是看涨的信号
26:10 - 26:13
EN: They see this as simply a pullback from this very strong bull breakout,
ZH: 他们认为这只是多头突破之后的深度回调
26:13 - 26:15
EN: and now we have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 现在形成了双底
26:15 - 26:17
EN: They’ll buy on the reversal up
ZH: 他们会在反转上涨时买入
26:17 - 26:20
EN: and look for a Measured Move up above this neckline.
ZH: 并且预期突破颈线，涨到MM目标位
26:23 - 26:24
EN: Here’s another chart.
ZH: 右边是另一张图 （注：左边就是刚才的案例）
26:24 - 26:25
EN: We have a Double Top.
ZH: 双顶
26:25 - 26:27
EN: We have a neckline of the Double Top here.
ZH: 双顶的颈线在这里
26:28 - 26:30
EN: And how I look at this is this way.
ZH: 我是这样看的
26:30 - 26:33
EN: We have a strong bull breakout, similar to this.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，类似左边这里
26:33 - 26:36
EN: We have a deep pullback, similar to this.
ZH: 深度回调，类似于这里
26:38 - 26:42
EN: Therefore, theoretically bulls would try to buy here again for a Double Bottom.
ZH: 因此，理论上多头可能会再次买入，形成双底
26:43 - 26:47
EN: Sometimes instead of getting the Double Bottom, we get a strong bear breakout.
ZH: 有时候没有形成双底，而是强势地向下跌破
26:47 - 26:52
EN: When that happens, I look at it as an attempt at a Double Bottom.
ZH: 当这种情况发生时，我把它看作是形成双底的尝试
26:53 - 26:57
EN: If I see a strong bull breakout like this and then a reversal below its low,
ZH: 如果我看到这么的强势多头突破， 但是反转跌破了它的起涨点，
26:57 - 27:02
EN: I view it as an attempted Double Bottom and a failed Double Bottom,
ZH: 我把它看作是失败的双底尝试
27:02 - 27:03
EN: and I look for a Measured Move down
ZH: 然后我寻找向下的MM目标位
27:03 - 27:07
EN: - even though there was not much of an attempt at a Double Bottom.
ZH: 尽管这里并没有什么反弹
27:07 - 27:08
EN: Strong bull breakout.
ZH: 但是强势的多头突破
27:08 - 27:11
EN: The bulls should have created a Double Bottom;
ZH: 多头本应该尝试形成双底的
27:11 - 27:14
EN: they could not create anything like a Double Bottom.
ZH: 然而这里多头什么都没做到
27:14 - 27:19
EN: If we fall below this low, I’m going to assume the market will behave
ZH: 如果跌破这个低点，我会当作这里有一个双底
27:19 - 27:27
EN: as if there was a Double Bottom, and we broke below its low.
ZH: 在向下突破的时候，我把多头突破的高度往下翻一倍， 作为MM目标位
27:22 - 27:27
EN: I’m looking for a Measured Move down based upon the height of that bull breakout.
ZH: 在向下突破的时候，我把多头突破的高度往下翻一倍， 作为MM目标位
27:31 - 27:34
EN: To me, this is a bull breakout, an attempt at a Double Bottom.
ZH: 在我看来，这是多头突破，尝试形成双底
27:34 - 27:36
EN: The attempt failed.
ZH: 尝试失败了
27:36 - 27:37
EN: We broke to the down side.
ZH: 向下跌破
27:37 - 27:40
EN: I’m going to look for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 跌到MM目标位
27:44 - 27:46
EN: We have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 双底
Slide 013
Time: 27:45
Bilingual Transcript
27:46 - 27:49
EN: We reversed up to the neckline, yet did not break above it.
ZH: 上涨到颈线，但是没能突破它
27:49 - 27:52
EN: And now we have a potential Double Top.
ZH: 这就变成了一个潜在的双顶
27:52 - 27:56
EN: Bulls will buy above the reversal up from the prior low, a Double Bottom.
ZH: 多头在前期低点买入，形成双底
27:56 - 28:01
EN: Bears will sell the reversal down from the prior high, a potential Double Top.
ZH: 空头在前期高点卖出，形成双顶
28:03 - 28:06
EN: Whenever there’s both a Double Bottom and a Double Top,
ZH: 如果同时存在双顶和双底
28:06 - 28:10
EN: the market’s in a Trading Range, and Trading Ranges often have failed breakouts.
ZH: 那么市场就处于震荡区间， 而且震荡区间的突破经常都会失败
28:10 - 28:12
EN: In fact, most breakouts fail.
ZH: 事实上，大多数突破的尝试都会失败
28:12 - 28:15
EN: We tried to break to the down side, we reversed up.
ZH: 尝试向下突破，反转上涨
28:15 - 28:17
EN: We tried to break to the up side, we reversed down.
ZH: 尝试向上突破，反转下跌
28:23 - 28:25
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破
28:25 - 28:27
EN: Test of the prior low.
ZH: 测试前期低点
28:27 - 28:32
EN: Slightly above the prior low, so a slightly Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 比前期低点略高一点， 所以是低点略微抬高的大反转结构
28:32 - 28:33
EN: Not much Buying Pressure.
ZH: 没有什么买压
28:33 - 28:37
EN: Very tight range, not a high probability buy setup.
ZH: 震荡区间很窄，不是一个高胜率的做多机会
28:37 - 28:41
EN: It rallied to that high, but the rally is weak.
ZH: 反弹到那个高点，但反弹很弱
28:41 - 28:45
EN: Reduces the chances we’ll get a successful bull breakout,
ZH: 降低了多头成功突破的概率
28:45 - 28:47
EN: and the bears created a Double Top.
ZH: 空头制造了一个双顶
28:48 - 28:51
EN: The bulls who bought above here and held long,
ZH: 在这里买入并持有的多头，
28:51 - 28:55
EN: their stop did not get hit; 3 did not fall below that low.
ZH: 他们的止损没有被打掉，3没有跌破1
28:59 - 29:03
EN: Double Top here and here, and traders who sold here,
ZH: 这里和这里是双顶，之前做空的空头，
29:03 - 29:07
EN: if they put their stop here, that also did not get hit.
ZH: 如果他们把止损放在这里，也没有被打到
29:07 - 29:10
EN: This high did not go above that high.
ZH: 4没有突破2的高点
29:10 - 29:13
EN: So at this point the bulls theoretically can be still long,
ZH: 所以在这个时候，理论上多头仍然有理由做多 （低点抬高）
29:13 - 29:15
EN: and the bears can be short.
ZH: 同时空头有理由做空（高点降低）
Slide 014
Time: 29:20
Bilingual Transcript
29:21 - 29:25
EN: We have a Double Bottom with 1 and 5 again.
ZH: 1和5，再次形成双底
29:26 - 29:30
EN: You can call it a Double Bottom with 3 and 5, 1 and 5.
ZH: 这里有很多双底，3和5，1和5
29:30 - 29:31
EN: Different computers see it differently.
ZH: 不同的电脑程序有不同的算法
29:32 - 29:34
EN: 5 fell slightly below 3.
ZH: 5略低于3
29:34 - 29:40
EN: It’s hard to see here, but it’s closer to the green line here than 3 is here.
ZH: 这里也许看得不是很清楚，但5确实比3更低
29:40 - 29:43
EN: Yet 5 did not fall below 1.
ZH: 但5没有跌破1的低点
29:43 - 29:47
EN: The bulls are still hoping for a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 多头仍然希望会有低点抬高的大反转
29:47 - 29:50
EN: and a Measured Move up based upon the height of this Trading Range.
ZH: 然后涨到MM目标位——把震荡区间的高度翻一倍
29:55 - 29:57
EN: We broke to the up side to a new high.
ZH: 突破到了新的高点
29:57 - 30:01
EN: The bulls are hoping this is a Double Bottom, a break above the neckline
ZH: 多头希望这是一个双底，突破颈线
30:01 - 30:04
EN: - which is here or here, same price
ZH: ——就是这条线
30:04 - 30:08
EN: - and they want a Measured Move up, yet we got a reversal down.
ZH: 然后上涨到MM目标位； 然而市场开始反转下跌
30:10 - 30:13
EN: The bulls got a breakout above the Double Top,
ZH: 多头尝试突破双顶，
30:13 - 30:18
EN: and that’s also the neckline of the Double Bottom created by 1 and 3.
ZH: 同时也是1和3这个双底的颈线
30:18 - 30:21
EN: So 1 and 3, this is the neckline.
ZH: 1，3，双底，这是颈线
30:21 - 30:25
EN: We broke above it, yet the breakout failed.
ZH: 尝试突破，但是失败了
30:31 - 30:33
EN: Whenever you have a Double Top and a breakout
ZH: 如果向上突破双顶失败，
30:33 - 30:35
EN: that fails, you have three pushes up.
ZH: 那就是3次向上的推动
30:35 - 30:41
EN: One plus two for the Double Top, and the third push up, the failed breakout.
ZH: 双顶本身就有两次推动，再加上第3次，失败的突破
30:41 - 30:43
EN: To me, that’s a type of Wedge.
ZH: 这是楔形顶 （复习：在楔形的课程里已经详细讲过了）
30:43 - 30:50
EN: Even though it looks nothing like a Wedge, the market three times tried
ZH: 尽管它看上去不像楔形，但原理是一样的 市场3次尝试上涨，3次都失败了
30:47 - 30:50
EN: to go up and failed three times.
ZH: 市场3次尝试上涨，3次都失败了
30:50 - 30:52
EN: Therefore, it functions like a Wedge,
ZH: 因此，它的功能和楔形一样
30:52 - 30:55
EN: and you have to assume you’ll get some kind of a reversal down.
ZH: 预期会反转下跌
30:55 - 30:58
EN: Maybe a couple legs down – one, pullback, two,
ZH: 也许有两段下跌——1，反弹，2；
30:58 - 31:02
EN: or Tight Channel, so one, pullback, two.
ZH: 或者，因为它是窄通道，所以1，反弹，2
31:04 - 31:07
EN: 3 strong bear bars, 2 closing near their lows.
ZH: 3根强势的阴线都收在低位
31:08 - 31:10
EN: 8 bars down.
ZH: 连续8根K线下跌
31:10 - 31:12
EN: Strong sellers.
ZH: 空头很强势
31:13 - 31:14
EN: Probably we’re going lower.
ZH: 很可能还要继续下跌
31:15 - 31:17
EN: The bulls tried a bull breakout and failed,
ZH: 多头尝试向上突破，但是失败了
31:17 - 31:20
EN: and now we’re getting an even stronger bear breakout.
ZH: 现在空头突破的力度更加强势
31:20 - 31:22
EN: Chances are it’ll be successful.
ZH: 大概率会成功
31:27 - 31:30
EN: It could be another failed breakout and a reversal up,
ZH: 当然，可能空头突破也会失败，然后又反转上涨 （注：毕竟是震荡区间，突破的概率不高）
31:30 - 31:33
EN: but after a strong attempt to break to the up side that failed,
ZH: 但是在多头突破失败之后，
31:33 - 31:38
EN: and now we have 3 consecutive bear bars – it looks like 8 bars down here
ZH: 这里有连续3根较强的阴线—— 一共连续下跌了8根K线（高点降低）
31:38 - 31:44
EN: - chances are this reversal up will be simply a pullback from this breakout
ZH: 这里的上涨很有可能只是空头突破之后的反弹
31:44 - 31:46
EN: and a bear flag, and that we’ll go lower.
ZH: 更有可能只是熊旗，还会继续下跌
31:48 - 31:53
EN: Bears will sell below the bear bar, expecting some kind of a second leg down.
ZH: 空头会在这个阴线下方卖出，预期有第2段下跌
31:59 - 32:05
EN: In this video I talked about how a Double Top
ZH: 这节课，我讲了双顶是对前期高点的测试（测试阻力）
Slide 015
Time: 32:00
Bilingual Transcript
32:02 - 32:05
EN: is a test of the first top (a test of resistance).
ZH: 这节课，我讲了双顶是对前期高点的测试（测试阻力）
32:05 - 32:09
EN: A Double Bottom is a selloff testing a prior low (a test of support).
ZH: 双底是对前期低点的测试（测试支撑）
32:09 - 32:13
EN: And that is why the reversals are so often good.
ZH: 这就是为什么会导致反转
32:13 - 32:15
EN: The market twice tries to do something and fails;
ZH: 市场两次尝试做某事并失败
32:15 - 32:18
EN: it then tries to go the opposite direction.
ZH: 然后开始朝着相反的方向移动
32:18 - 32:19
EN: You get a reversal.
ZH: 所以有反转的机会
32:20 - 32:25
EN: All patterns sometimes reverse,
ZH: 所有的反转结构，包括双顶和双底，都有失败的时候
32:22 - 32:25
EN: and that’s true of Double Tops and Bottoms as well.
ZH: 所有的反转结构，包括双顶和双底，都有失败的时候
32:26 - 32:29
EN: When they do fail, traders look for a Measured Move.
ZH: 当它们反转失败时，交易者预期反向的MM目标位
32:29 - 32:37
EN: And finally, I talked a little bit about Measured Moves based upon the height
ZH: 最后，我讲了如何根据双顶或双底的高度， 去寻找突破后的MM目标位
32:34 - 32:37
EN: of the Double Top, or the height of the Double Bottom.
ZH: 最后，我讲了如何根据双顶或双底的高度， 去寻找突破后的MM目标位
32:43 - 32:44
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
32:44 - 32:46
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
32:46 - 32:51
EN: This is the second of two videos on Double Tops and Bottoms.
ZH: 双顶和双底的两节课，到这里就全部讲完了