al-brooks-course
31D - Swing Trading and Scalping
Raw transcript and slide notes for 31D - Swing Trading and Scalping.
Overview
- Slides: 22
- Transcript segments: 605
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 这是波段交易和剥头皮交易的第4节课（共4节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: Sometimes traders will take a trade as a swing,
ZH: 有时候，交易者一开始想做一笔波段交易，
00:17 - 00:22
EN: and because of the way the price action is unfolding, they’ll convert it to a scalp.
ZH: 但随着行情的发展，他们会把它变成剥头皮交易
00:24 - 00:31
EN: One of the highest probability trades that a trader
ZH: 胜率最高的机会之一，就是在强势突破期间入场， 押注突破会继续
00:26 - 00:31
EN: can take is entering during a strong breakout,
ZH: 胜率最高的机会之一，就是在强势突破期间入场， 押注突破会继续
00:29 - 00:31
EN: betting that the breakout will continue.
ZH: 胜率最高的机会之一，就是在强势突破期间入场， 押注突破会继续
00:31 - 00:35
EN: Therefore, the math is okay to scalp in a strong breakout.
ZH: 因此，在强势突破中做剥头皮交易是合理的
00:36 - 00:40
EN: A very bad thing to do is take a trade as a scalp
ZH: 最糟糕的做法是，开始想做剥头皮交易，
00:40 - 00:44
EN: and then it starts to go against you, and you decide to convert it into a swing.
ZH: 结果市场反向运行， 然后你（因为不愿意止损）把它变成了波段交易
00:44 - 00:46
EN: That is a losing strategy.
ZH: 这是一种亏钱的策略
00:46 - 00:52
EN: You’re going for a small reward, yet you’re willing to accept an increasing loss
ZH: 你追求小利润，却愿意接受越来越大的亏损
00:52 - 00:58
EN: - so much so that you need an extremely high winning percentage
ZH: ——亏损太大了，你需要极高的胜率才能盈利
00:56 - 00:58
EN: to make the strategy profitable.
ZH: ——亏损太大了，你需要极高的胜率才能盈利
Slide 002
Time: 01:00
Bilingual Transcript
01:05 - 01:11
EN: Every new tick that comes on every chart gives you new information.
ZH: K线图上价格每跳动1个tick，都会传递出新的信息
01:11 - 01:17
EN: If you enter a trade for one reason and then the information makes you think
ZH: 如果你出于某个原因入场， 然后新的信息让你认为这笔交易的前提已经不再成立
01:15 - 01:17
EN: that your premise is no longer good,
ZH: 如果你出于某个原因入场， 然后新的信息让你认为这笔交易的前提已经不再成立
01:17 - 01:19
EN: you have to make a change to what you’re doing.
ZH: 那你就必须做出改变
01:22 - 01:24
EN: For example, we have a strong bear trend.
ZH: 例如，这是一个强下降趋势
01:24 - 01:28
EN: It’s a Sell The Close strong bear breakout at this point,
ZH: 强势的空头突破，是“卖收盘”的下降趋势
01:28 - 01:30
EN: and you have a Low 1 short.
ZH: 这里是低1做空入场点
01:30 - 01:35
EN: We have a pullback and a bear trend where the market sold off
ZH: 连续下跌了大约10根K线，途中没有阳线， 现在出现了反弹（注：超过前1根K线的高点）
01:33 - 01:35
EN: for about 10 bars without a bull body.
ZH: 连续下跌了大约10根K线，途中没有阳线， 现在出现了反弹（注：超过前1根K线的高点）
01:35 - 01:39
EN: However, 2 consecutive dojis, Trading Range price action,
ZH: 然而，连续两个十字星，这是震荡区间的价格行为
01:39 - 01:42
EN: and consecutive Sell Climaxes all the way down
ZH: 而且一路下跌是连续的抛售高潮
01:42 - 01:46
EN: - there, here, a little bit here, these 2 bars,
ZH: ——这里，这里，这里，这两根K线
01:46 - 01:52
EN: and then this entire selloff is a big breakout bar on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 然后这整段下跌，在更高的时间周期上， 就是一根跌破的大阴线
01:52 - 01:54
EN: and it’s a big Sell Climax late in a bear trend,
ZH: 并且是下降趋势后期的大抛售高潮
01:54 - 01:57
EN: breaking below the bottom of a bear channel.
ZH: 跌破了下降通道的下沿
01:57 - 01:59
EN: Chances are the market’s going to reverse soon.
ZH: 市场大概率很快就会反弹/反转
02:00 - 02:05
EN: This is a low probability short, and therefore only a swing.
ZH: 在这里做空的胜率较低，因此要做的话只能做波段
02:05 - 02:09
EN: You’re betting that an oversold market is going to get a lot more oversold.
ZH: 你在押注一个超卖的市场会变得更加超卖
02:09 - 02:11
EN: Chances are it will not.
ZH: 可能性不大
02:13 - 02:18
EN: Whenever you take a trade that does not have a very high probability of success,
ZH: 每当你在做一笔胜率较低的交易时，
02:18 - 02:19
EN: you have to be swing trading,
ZH: 你只能做波段交易
02:19 - 02:23
EN: because you need a big reward to offset the low probability.
ZH: 因为你需要一笔大的利润来弥补概率的不足
02:23 - 02:26
EN: This is not a good scalp, selling below that bear bar.
ZH: 在那个阴线下方做空，这不是一个好的剥头皮的机会
02:29 - 02:31
EN: Here we have another big bear bar.
ZH: 这里也有一根大阴线
02:31 - 02:34
EN: In fact, this is the biggest bear bar in 20 or 30 bars.
ZH: 事实上，它是过去20~30根K线中最大的阴线
02:34 - 02:38
EN: Whenever you have the biggest bear bar coming in a bear trend
ZH: 当下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线，
02:38 - 02:43
EN: after the trend has lasted 20 bars or more, it’s more likely an exhaustive end
ZH: 然后你再看到最大的大阴线，趋势更有可能即将衰竭、结束
02:43 - 02:47
EN: of the trend rather than a Measuring Gap leading to an accelerated trend down.
ZH: 而不是加速下跌变成更强的下降趋势
02:48 - 02:51
EN: When a trend ends, it converts either into a Trading Range
ZH: 当趋势结束时，它要么变成震荡区间
02:51 - 02:53
EN: or into an opposite trend.
ZH: 要么变成相反的趋势
02:53 - 03:00
EN: This is a high probability bar indicating
ZH: 这是一根“高概率K线”表明趋势即将结束
02:56 - 03:00
EN: that the trend will either end here or very soon.
ZH: 这是一根“高概率K线”表明趋势即将结束
03:00 - 03:02
EN: It’s a probable Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 这大概率是竭尽型缺口
03:02 - 03:08
EN: The gap once this bar closes is between the close of this bar
ZH: 这根K线收盘的时候，它的收盘价和突破点—— 这个低点之间存在缺口
03:06 - 03:08
EN: and the breakout point, this low.
ZH: 这根K线收盘的时候，它的收盘价和突破点—— 这个低点之间存在缺口
03:08 - 03:11
EN: High probability that that gap is going to close soon
ZH: 这个缺口大概率很快会被回补
03:11 - 03:13
EN: - and in fact, it closed 2 bars later.
ZH: ——事实上，两根K线之后就补掉了
03:16 - 03:20
EN: Had you taken this short as a swing short and then you see this big bear bar
ZH: 如果你在这里做空、打算做波段交易， 然后看到下降趋势后期的大阴线
03:20 - 03:27
EN: late in a bear trend, you have to be thinking, uh oh,
ZH: 你肯定在想：“坏了，这更有可能是趋势的结束， 而不是新一轮下跌的开始。”
03:23 - 03:27
EN: this might be the end of the trend and not the start of a new leg down.
ZH: 你肯定在想：“坏了，这更有可能是趋势的结束， 而不是新一轮下跌的开始。”
03:27 - 03:30
EN: And then you get a bull bar reversing, closing near its high.
ZH: 然后你看到一个反转的阳线，收在最高
03:30 - 03:34
EN: A swing trader should exit above this bull bar, because the premise
ZH: 波段交易者应该在这个阳线的上方离场
03:34 - 03:39
EN: of a continued bear trend is probably very low probability at this point.
ZH: 因为此时下降趋势继续的前提很大概率已经不成立了
03:39 - 03:42
EN: Probably the best the bears get is sideways for 5 or 10 bars.
ZH: 空头能获得的最好结果是横盘5~10根K线
03:44 - 03:46
EN: Did he make a profit?
ZH: 他赚到钱了吗？
03:46 - 03:47
EN: He might’ve made a very small profit.
ZH: 他可能赚到了非常小的利润
03:47 - 03:53
EN: He converted his swing trade entering here into a scalp exiting here.
ZH: 在这里离场，他是把波段交易转变为了剥头皮交易，
Slide 003
Time: 03:55
Bilingual Transcript
03:58 - 04:03
EN: We’re now in a bull swing, but it’s the first strong breakout above a bear channel.
ZH: 现在处于一个上涨波段中， 但这是第1次强势突破下降通道
Slide 004
Time: 04:00
Bilingual Transcript
04:03 - 04:06
EN: This rally is probably a minor reversal,
ZH: 这次反弹很可能只是小反转 （注：涨幅不小，但是从市场周期而言，不会变成大的上涨趋势）
04:06 - 04:10
EN: and it probably is going to convert into a Trading Range fairly soon.
ZH: 大概率很快会变成震荡区间
04:10 - 04:12
EN: If you want, you can call this a Triangle.
ZH: 你也可以说它是三角形
04:12 - 04:17
EN: We have a pair of small dojis after a big bull bar and after a down bar here.
ZH: 两个小十字星，左边是大阳线、大阴线
04:17 - 04:22
EN: First push down, second push down, and then third push down.
ZH: 第1次向下推动，第2次，第3次
04:22 - 04:25
EN: On a smaller timeframe chart, this is a Triangle,
ZH: 在较小时间周期的K线图上，这是一个三角形
04:25 - 04:27
EN: and it’s occurring fairly late in a rally,
ZH: 它出现在上涨的后期
04:27 - 04:31
EN: and this rally is probably going to be a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 而且这段上涨很可能是震荡区间中的上涨波段
04:31 - 04:34
EN: because it’s the first breakout of a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 因为这是第1次突破这个非常窄的下降通道
04:34 - 04:38
EN: The reversal up is probably minor, and then once it pulls back,
ZH: 它大概率不是大反转，要在回调之后，
04:38 - 04:42
EN: the bulls can get a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 可能会形成低点抬高的大反转机会
04:42 - 04:44
EN: Since this is part of a minor reversal,
ZH: 由于这是小反转的一部分
04:44 - 04:47
EN: it probably is not going to go up all that much higher.
ZH: 它继续大涨的可能性较低
04:47 - 04:50
EN: Relatively low bet for a swing up.
ZH: 押注上涨波段的胜率较低
04:55 - 04:58
EN: Since the first leg up after a very Tight Bear Channel
ZH: 因为窄下降通道后的第1次上涨
04:58 - 05:01
EN: is probably a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 大概率是震荡区间中的上涨波段
05:01 - 05:05
EN: and then you suddenly get a very big bar 15 or more bars into the range,
ZH: 然后突然出现了过去15根K线中体积最大的大阳线
05:05 - 05:08
EN: you have to be thinking of this as possibly a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 你必须考虑到这是第2段陷阱的可能性
05:08 - 05:13
EN: It’s not really a second leg unless you call this whole thing
ZH: ——如果把这里看作第1段上涨，回调，它是第2段
05:12 - 05:13
EN: first leg, pullback, second leg.
ZH: ——如果把这里看作第1段上涨，回调，它是第2段
05:13 - 05:16
EN: You can call it a Parabolic Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 你也可以说它是抛物线楔形——1，2，3
05:16 - 05:22
EN: - but a very big bull bar late in a bull leg
ZH: 总之，这个上涨波段大概率会变成震荡区间， 而它的后期又出现了超大的大阳线
05:19 - 05:22
EN: in what is probably going to be a Trading Range.
ZH: 总之，这个上涨波段大概率会变成震荡区间， 而它的后期又出现了超大的大阳线
05:22 - 05:25
EN: Probably a climactic end to the bull leg.
ZH: 很可能是这个波段最后的抢购高潮
05:25 - 05:27
EN: Also, it’s testing near the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 另外，市场正在测试下降趋势的起跌点附近
05:27 - 05:35
EN: That is a logical resistance area and a good place for bulls
ZH: 这是一个合理的阻力区， 也是多头止盈、空头入场的地方
05:31 - 05:35
EN: to take profits and for bears to start to look for shorts.
ZH: 这是一个合理的阻力区， 也是多头止盈、空头入场的地方
05:35 - 05:38
EN: You have a big bear reversal bar closing on its low.
ZH: 大的反转阴线，收在最低
05:38 - 05:42
EN: Now you have big up, big down, a Triangle late in a trend.
ZH: 现在变成了大涨、大跌； 这是波段后期的三角形
05:42 - 05:44
EN: Probable Final Flag.
ZH: 可能是末端旗形
05:46 - 05:50
EN: Most swing traders who bought above here should exit at this point.
ZH: 在这里上方买入的波段交易者现在应该离场
05:50 - 05:55
EN: Big up, big down, probably big confusion and a Trading Range.
ZH: 大涨、大跌，大的困惑，很可能进入震荡区间
05:55 - 06:00
EN: Also, you’re near the top of a Trading Range and this is probably a bull leg
ZH: 此外，现在接近震荡区间的顶部， 而它很可能是震荡区间中的上涨波段，
06:00 - 06:04
EN: in a Trading Range, which means you’re probably going
ZH: 这代表接下来很可能是区间中的下跌波段
06:02 - 06:04
EN: to get a bear leg and a range.
ZH: 这代表接下来很可能是区间中的下跌波段
06:04 - 06:08
EN: Once you see this reversal, traders should exit their swing below that low.
ZH: 一旦你看到这种反转，多头应该在那个低点下方离场， 结束这一笔波段交易
06:08 - 06:10
EN: They’ll have made a profit from here to here.
ZH: 他们的利润是从这里到这里
06:10 - 06:12
EN: It’ll be small.
ZH: 利润很小
06:12 - 06:16
EN: They began taking a swing trade, hoping that this would be the start
ZH: 他们开始是打算做波段交易的， 希望这是上涨趋势的开始——
06:16 - 06:23
EN: of a bull trend, even though it probably would have to form
ZH: 尽管需要一个大反转的结构，然后才能变成上涨趋势
06:19 - 06:23
EN: a Major Trend Reversal before you can get a bull trend.
ZH: 尽管需要一个大反转的结构，然后才能变成上涨趋势
06:23 - 06:29
EN: Low probability swing buy, and most bulls who took that swing trade
ZH: 做多的胜率不高，做波段交易的多头会在这里离场—— 就在这根阴线下方
06:27 - 06:29
EN: would get out right here, below that bear bar,
ZH: 做多的胜率不高，做波段交易的多头会在这里离场—— 就在这根阴线下方
06:29 - 06:32
EN: converting their swing into a scalp.
ZH: 把波段交易变成剥头皮交易
Slide 005
Time: 06:35
Bilingual Transcript
06:39 - 06:44
EN: Any time you take any kind of a trade, swing or scalp, after you enter
ZH: 不管你做什么类型的交易——波段还是剥头皮，
06:44 - 06:51
EN: if the premise is no longer valid, if the trade is unfolding in a way
ZH: 入场后，如果前提不再成立， 如果行情的发展不符合你的预期
06:48 - 06:51
EN: that’s not consistent with what you were expecting,
ZH: 入场后，如果前提不再成立， 如果行情的发展不符合你的预期
06:51 - 06:54
EN: you simply get out – even if it’s for a loss.
ZH: 你就应该直接离场——不管目前是赚是亏
06:56 - 06:59
EN: 4 consecutive bear bars closing on or near their lows.
ZH: 连续4根阴线收在低位
06:59 - 07:05
EN: Some traders would sell this bar, even though it’s a breakout
ZH: 有些空头会在它的收盘开仓做空—— 尽管这是跌破前期低点的第1根K线，跟随K线还没出现
07:03 - 07:05
EN: and not a follow-through bar after the breakout.
ZH: 有些空头会在它的收盘开仓做空—— 尽管这是跌破前期低点的第1根K线，跟随K线还没出现
07:05 - 07:07
EN: But some traders will take a chance.
ZH: 但有些空头会直接入场
07:07 - 07:11
EN: They’ll sell here and put a stop above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 他们在这里卖出做空，止损放在下跌波段的起点上方
07:12 - 07:13
EN: I usually wait.
ZH: 我通常会等待
07:13 - 07:17
EN: If I did not sell earlier, I usually wait for a follow-through bar
ZH: 如果我还没有入场，我通常会等一个跟随K线
07:17 - 07:20
EN: - in other words, another bear bar closing near its low.
ZH: ——如果又有收在低位的阴线，我再开仓
07:20 - 07:24
EN: And here, instead of a bear follow-through bar,
ZH: 然而这里，跟随K线不是阴线，反而是阳线
07:22 - 07:24
EN: we have a bull follow-through bar.
ZH: 然而这里，跟随K线不是阴线，反而是阳线
07:24 - 07:28
EN: That makes a bear trend less likely and a pullback
ZH: 这使得下降趋势的可能性降低，
07:28 - 07:31
EN: into at least a Trading Range or possibly a bull trend more likely.
ZH: 更有可能反弹进入震荡区间，甚至是反转成上涨趋势
07:31 - 07:37
EN: That is bad follow-through after a bear breakout
ZH: 空头跌破震荡区间/前期低点之后的跟随很糟糕
07:34 - 07:37
EN: below a Trading Range or a prior low.
ZH: 空头跌破震荡区间/前期低点之后的跟随很糟糕
07:39 - 07:44
EN: The bears who sold this close, their stop is above the top of the bear leg
ZH: 在这个收盘开仓的空头，他们的止损在下跌波段的起跌点上方
07:44 - 07:47
EN: or maybe above the top of the Sell Climax, the 4 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 或者在抛售高潮——这连续4根阴线的起点上方
07:49 - 07:50
EN: Bad follow-through.
ZH: 跟随很差
07:50 - 07:54
EN: A bull bar, a doji bar, a doji bar, another bull bar.
ZH: 阳线，十字星，十字星，又是阳线
07:54 - 08:00
EN: The bears who took this short are thinking, uh oh,
ZH: 在这里做空的空头心想： “坏了，这可能是空头陷阱，是失败的突破
07:57 - 08:00
EN: this might be a trap and a failed breakout,
ZH: 在这里做空的空头心想： “坏了，这可能是空头陷阱，是失败的突破
08:00 - 08:02
EN: and it could quickly lead to a reversal up.
ZH: 有可能很快就反转上涨。”
08:04 - 08:07
EN: Most bears would probably exit above this bull bar.
ZH: 大多数空头会在这个阳线上方离场
08:07 - 08:11
EN: Others would exit maybe above the top of this doji bar or that doji bar,
ZH: 一些人可能会在这个十字星，或那个十字星的上方离场
08:11 - 08:13
EN: or this second bull bar.
ZH: 或者在这根阳线上方离场
08:13 - 08:16
EN: And you can see, when it went above this second bull bar,
ZH: 可以看到，超过第2根阳线的时候，
08:16 - 08:17
EN: it started to accelerate upward.
ZH: 价格开始加速上涨
08:17 - 08:22
EN: This pair of bars is a sign that the final bears are giving up.
ZH: 这两根K线代表最后的空头也放弃了
08:25 - 08:30
EN: Whenever a trade goes against you, but you think your premise is still valid,
ZH: 如果一笔交易反向运行，但你认为你的前提仍然成立，
08:30 - 08:34
EN: you can scale in and simply rely on a logical stop.
ZH: 你可以加仓，依赖合理的止损
08:39 - 08:42
EN: We have a strong bull breakout after a failed bear breakout.
ZH: 空头突破失败之后，是强势的多头突破
Slide 006
Time: 08:40
Bilingual Transcript
08:43 - 08:47
EN: Just like the bears sold this close, the bulls will buy that close
ZH: 就像刚才空头在它的收盘做空， 一些多头也会在它的收盘买入
08:47 - 08:51
EN: or they’ll wait for another bull bar and buy the close of that second bull bar.
ZH: 或者他们会再等一根阳线，然后在它的收盘买入
08:51 - 08:55
EN: They have it here.
ZH: 也就是这里——尽管它的上影线很长
08:52 - 09:00
EN: Even though it has a big tail on top, you have trapped bears
ZH: 也就是这里——尽管它的上影线很长 有一些被套牢的空头希望市场回调， 给他们一个少亏离场的机会
08:56 - 09:00
EN: who are looking for any kind of a selloff
ZH: 有一些被套牢的空头希望市场回调， 给他们一个少亏离场的机会
08:58 - 09:00
EN: so they can get out with a smaller loss.
ZH: 有一些被套牢的空头希望市场回调， 给他们一个少亏离场的机会
09:00 - 09:03
EN: You’ll have bulls who did not buy the reversal up,
ZH: 有一些多头之前没有在反转上涨时做多，
09:03 - 09:06
EN: and they’re hoping for any kind of a pullback so that they can buy.
ZH: 他们也希望有一些回调，可以让他们逢低买入
09:06 - 09:11
EN: Buying up here, you’re betting on either a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 在这个高位买入，你押注的是上涨趋势，或震荡区间
09:11 - 09:15
EN: If it’s a Trading Range, it’ll sell off
ZH: 如果这是震荡区间，回调之后它会涨回到区间的顶部
09:13 - 09:15
EN: and it’ll come back up to the top of the range.
ZH: 如果这是震荡区间，回调之后它会涨回到区间的顶部
09:15 - 09:18
EN: This is a high probability trade.
ZH: 这是一笔高胜率的交易
09:18 - 09:22
EN: Buying this close has a high probability of either making a profit
ZH: 在它的收盘买入，有很大的概率可以盈利，
09:22 - 09:25
EN: or avoiding a loss, if you can scale in lower.
ZH: 或者至少不会亏钱——如果你能逢低加仓的话
09:27 - 09:31
EN: You buy that close, you put a stop below the bottom of the bull swing,
ZH: 在它的收盘买入，把止损放在上涨波段的起点下方
09:33 - 09:35
EN: and then you’re disappointed by the follow-through.
ZH: 然后你跟随感到失望
09:35 - 09:37
EN: 1 bear bar, 2 bear bars, 3 bear bars.
ZH: 1根阴线，2根阴线，3根阴线
09:37 - 09:41
EN: Maybe it’s going to reverse down, just like this bear breakout reversed up.
ZH: 也许会反转下跌，就像这个空头突破被反转上涨一样
09:42 - 09:46
EN: More likely, after a failed bear breakout and a strong bull breakout,
ZH: 空头突破失败，然后多头尝试突破， 之后更有可能的是，
09:46 - 09:50
EN: the best the bears will get is a Trading Range for 5 or 10 bars,
ZH: 空头能得到的最好结果就是一个持续5~10根K线的震荡区间
09:51 - 09:55
EN: and therefore the bulls who bought up here can hold through these bear bars,
ZH: 因此，在这里买入的多头可以在这些阴线期间继续持有
09:55 - 10:00
EN: betting that the market will come back up to that high close
ZH: 押注市场会回到那个最高的收盘价——也就是他们的入场点
09:58 - 10:03
EN: where they bought before it gets down
ZH: 押注市场会回到那个最高的收盘价——也就是他们的入场点 而不是先打掉他们的止损——在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
10:00 - 10:03
EN: to their stop below the bottom of the bull swing.
ZH: 而不是先打掉他们的止损——在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
10:06 - 10:10
EN: These bulls might add on at a scalp lower.
ZH: 一些多头会在下方剥头皮的距离加仓
10:10 - 10:15
EN: For example, if this is a 5-minute Forex chart, they might add on 10 pips lower.
ZH: 例如，如果这是外汇的5分钟K线图， 他们会在下方10 pips的位置加仓
10:15 - 10:18
EN: If it’s an Emini chart, they might add on 1 or 2 points lower.
ZH: 如果是ES，他们会在下方1~2个点的位置加仓
10:18 - 10:23
EN: They always want to add on at least as big as a scalp below
ZH: 加仓的位置至少要隔开一笔剥头皮的距离，
10:23 - 10:29
EN: because they’re trying to get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 这样，当市场回到他们的入场价时， 他们的初始仓位可以打平，
10:26 - 10:29
EN: if the market gets back to their first entry,
ZH: 这样，当市场回到他们的入场价时， 他们的初始仓位可以打平，
10:29 - 10:32
EN: and they want to make a scalper’s profit on their second entry.
ZH: 而加仓的部分可以赚到一笔剥头皮的利润
10:33 - 10:36
EN: Many bulls will look to enter above a bull bar.
ZH: 很多多头会在一根阳线的上方加仓
10:36 - 10:41
EN: We have a doji here, not particularly strong, but they might enter above this bar
ZH: 这里有一个十字星，不是特别强， 但他们可能会在这根K线上方买入
10:41 - 10:44
EN: - no fill – or they might enter above this bar.
ZH: ——没有触发—— 然后他们会在这根K线上方挂突破买单
10:44 - 10:47
EN: We have an iii and a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: iii结构，有收在高位的阳线
10:47 - 10:50
EN: If this entry point above the high of this small bull bar
ZH: 如果这根小阳线的高点，
10:50 - 10:55
EN: is at least as big as a scalp below this close, it’s a reasonable entry,
ZH: 距离它的收盘价，至少相隔一笔剥头皮的距离， 那么这就是合理的加仓位置
10:55 - 10:58
EN: betting that we’ll come back to that close at a minimum.
ZH: 押注市场至少会回到那个收盘价
11:00 - 11:02
EN: And you can see what happened.
ZH: 可以看到发生了什么
11:02 - 11:04
EN: Bulls bought this close, they did not like this.
ZH: 多头在它的收盘买入，对回调感到不满意
11:04 - 11:07
EN: They decided they wanted to get out breakeven if the market
ZH: 他们决定，如果市场回到他们的入场点，
11:07 - 11:12
EN: got back to their close, and some of them will add on here as long as the distance
ZH: 他们就打平离场； 一些人也会在这里加仓，
11:12 - 11:16
EN: between this and that is at least as big as a scalp.
ZH: 前提是距离初始仓位至少有一笔剥头皮的距离
11:16 - 11:19
EN: And what happened when we got back to that close?
ZH: 当价格回到它的收盘时，发生了什么？
11:19 - 11:24
EN: It went a little bit above, and that allowed these bulls
ZH: 稍微超过了一点点，让这些多头能够用限价卖单打平离场
11:22 - 11:31
EN: to exit with a limit order breakeven, and if they bought more here,
ZH: 稍微超过了一点点，让这些多头能够用限价卖单打平离场 如果他们在这里加仓了，加仓的部分就可以赚一些小钱
11:26 - 11:31
EN: then they made a scalp profit
ZH: 如果他们在这里加仓了，加仓的部分就可以赚一些小钱
11:28 - 11:31
EN: when the market went back slightly above their first price.
ZH: 如果他们在这里加仓了，加仓的部分就可以赚一些小钱
11:34 - 11:40
EN: The bulls who bought here, they were using a swing stop,
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，不管他们打算做波段还是剥头皮， 用的都是波段交易的止损
11:38 - 11:40
EN: whether or not they were scalping or swing trading.
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，不管他们打算做波段还是剥头皮， 用的都是波段交易的止损
11:40 - 11:44
EN: It’s high probability that they would make money or not lose money,
ZH: 他们盈利，至少是不亏钱的概率很高
11:44 - 11:50
EN: so it’s okay to scalp, and they got a scalp on their second entry
ZH: 所以剥头皮是可以的，他们加仓的部分赚到了剥头皮的利润， 而初始仓位是打平离场
11:47 - 11:50
EN: and they get out breakeven on their first.
ZH: 所以剥头皮是可以的，他们加仓的部分赚到了剥头皮的利润， 而初始仓位是打平离场
Slide 007
Time: 11:55
Bilingual Transcript
11:57 - 12:00
EN: As long as the breakout is continuing, you can repeat the process.
ZH: 只要突破继续，你就可以重复这个过程
12:01 - 12:04
EN: You can use a swing stop and scale in if the market goes against you.
ZH: 当市场反向运行（但前提仍然成立）， 你可以使用波段交易的止损（宽止损）并加仓
12:05 - 12:09
EN: If you sell anywhere in here, your stop is up here.
ZH: 如果你在这里的任何地方做空了， 你的止损在这里
12:09 - 12:13
EN: It does not matter if you sell that close or this close or below this bull bar.
ZH: 不管你在它的收盘还是它的收盘， 还是在这个阳线下方开仓，
12:13 - 12:18
EN: Even selling below this bear bar, the stop for all of those trades is up here.
ZH: 即使是在这个阴线下方开仓做空， 止损全都在这里
12:20 - 12:23
EN: Let’s say you happen to sell right down here,
ZH: 假设你恰好在它的收盘卖出，
12:23 - 12:25
EN: the lowest close of the entire selloff.
ZH: 几乎卖在整个下降趋势的最低点
12:25 - 12:29
EN: When you’re taking that short, you don’t know that it’s the final bear bar,
ZH: 当你开仓的时候，你并不知道这是最后一根阴线，
12:29 - 12:31
EN: but you soon discover that it is.
ZH: 但很快你就发现它确实是
12:31 - 12:34
EN: Mathematically, it’s still a reasonable thing to do.
ZH: 数学上，这仍然是一笔合理的交易
12:35 - 12:39
EN: We have consecutive Sell Climaxes – bear bar here, bear bar here,
ZH: 连续的抛售高潮——这里，这里
12:39 - 12:43
EN: and 3 bear bars, a Sell Climax, and then 2 bear bars,
ZH: 这里3根阴线，抛售高潮，这两根阴线
12:43 - 12:46
EN: a Sell Climax, but a fairly big bear bar.
ZH: 抛售高潮，体积相对较大
12:46 - 12:49
EN: Possible 1 bar Final Flag and a tail.
ZH: 这根K线可能是末端熊旗； 而它有较明显的下影线
12:49 - 12:52
EN: Probably going to get a pullback and a Trading Range soon.
ZH: 可能很快就会反弹进入震荡区间
12:52 - 12:57
EN: The math is still okay to sell that close because the first reversal up
ZH: 从数学上讲，在它的收盘做空仍然是合理的，
12:57 - 13:00
EN: from a Tight Bear Channel probably is going to be either a bull leg
ZH: 因为窄下降通道之后的第1次上涨要么会变成震荡区间，
13:00 - 13:05
EN: in a Trading Range or it’ll be a bull channel that becomes a bear flag.
ZH: 要么会变成上涨通道，也就是熊旗
13:05 - 13:10
EN: In other words, the odds are whatever rally we get will come back down
ZH: 换句话说，反弹不会先打到空头的止损，
13:10 - 13:13
EN: and test this close before it gets up to that swing stop.
ZH: 而是会先回落，测试这个收盘价
13:16 - 13:19
EN: Therefore, some traders will sell this close
ZH: 因此，一些空头会在它的收盘做空
13:19 - 13:21
EN: and look to sell more higher, and put a stop up here.
ZH: 并且做好逢高加仓的打算，把止损放在这里
13:21 - 13:27
EN: Scale-in traders have to trade small because whatever risk they have,
ZH: 打算加仓的交易者必须用非常小的仓位交易，
13:27 - 13:30
EN: it has to be no greater than the risk on any other trade.
ZH: 这样他们就不会冒太大的风险
13:30 - 13:34
EN: And if they enter a second time or even a third time, the total risk
ZH: 如果他们加仓1次甚至两次，
13:34 - 13:38
EN: from all three entries has to be no greater
ZH: 3笔仓位加起来，总的风险不应该超过平时其它交易的风险
13:37 - 13:40
EN: than the risk on any other trade, so they have to trade small.
ZH: 3笔仓位加起来，总的风险不应该超过平时其它交易的风险 所以必须用很小的仓位
13:40 - 13:44
EN: The stop is far away, and they’re adding to a position.
ZH: 止损很远，而且他们在加仓
13:50 - 13:54
EN: Some traders who sold this close would look to sell more maybe 2 points higher,
ZH: 一些在这个收盘卖出做空的空头， 会在上方2个点的距离卖出更多
13:54 - 13:56
EN: and they would get filled right here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
13:56 - 14:00
EN: They would keep their stop here, above the top of the bear swing.
ZH: 他们的止损一直在这里——下跌波段的起跌点上方
14:00 - 14:04
EN: It’s a swing stop, but they’re confident that the first reversal up
ZH: 这是波段交易的止损位， 他们相信第1次上涨只是小反转，
14:04 - 14:15
EN: would be minor, becoming either a bull channel, bear flag
ZH: 会变成熊旗，或者震荡区间 ——最终都会再次下跌，测试那个收盘价
14:08 - 14:15
EN: - in which case they would expect a selloff back down to test that close
ZH: 会变成熊旗，或者震荡区间 ——最终都会再次下跌，测试那个收盘价
14:12 - 14:15
EN: - or it could simply be a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 会变成熊旗，或者震荡区间 ——最终都会再次下跌，测试那个收盘价
14:15 - 14:19
EN: Trading Range, you get a leg up, you expect a leg down back to that close.
ZH: 震荡区间，上涨的波段，预期也会有下跌的波段， 回测前期的最低收盘价
14:20 - 14:22
EN: Look what happened here.
ZH: 看看这里发生了什么
14:22 - 14:24
EN: The trader sold here.
ZH: 空头在这里做空
14:24 - 14:25
EN: He sold more 2 points higher.
ZH: 然后在上方2个点的距离卖出更多
14:25 - 14:28
EN: He placed a limit order to get out at that low close.
ZH: 他在那个最低的收盘价挂了一个限价买单
14:28 - 14:30
EN: The market hit his order.
ZH: 市场碰到了他的订单
14:30 - 14:32
EN: Most traders would not be filled.
ZH: 大部分订单无法成交 （注：需要多跌1个tick才能确保成交）
14:33 - 14:36
EN: Then we get a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 然后出现了一根收在最高的阳线
14:36 - 14:40
EN: Traders at this point would assume that these Sell The Close bears are trapped
ZH: 这个时候，交易者会认为那些空头被套牢了
14:40 - 14:42
EN: and they’re going to buy back their shorts.
ZH: 他们会买回他们的空头仓位
14:42 - 14:45
EN: You can see this big bull trend bar – it’s a Give-up Bar.
ZH: 这根大阳线是空头的放弃K线
14:45 - 14:49
EN: Traders who are aware of what’s going on – traders selling this close,
ZH: 在这个收盘卖出做空的空头， 意识到了现在的情况，
14:49 - 14:53
EN: disappointed by the bull bar, selling more higher, trying to get out breakeven
ZH: 对阳线感到失望，逢高加仓，争取打平离场——
14:53 - 14:56
EN: on their first entry and with a scalp profit on their second
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚小钱
14:56 - 14:59
EN: - most of them did not get out with a profit.
ZH: 大部分人没有能在这里止盈离场 （注：如之前所说，只有一部分订单能成交）
14:59 - 15:02
EN: They exited above here, around breakeven on their second entry
ZH: 他们在它的上方离场，加仓的部分差不多打平，
15:02 - 15:05
EN: and with a small loss on their first entry.
ZH: 而初始仓位略微亏损
Slide 008
Time: 15:10
Bilingual Transcript
15:10 - 15:13
EN: Other traders would see that and say, well,
ZH: 一些交易者会认为，
15:13 - 15:15
EN: it’s still probably a minor reversal up.
ZH: 这大概率仍然只是小反弹
15:15 - 15:18
EN: This is not enough bars up, not enough bars down,
ZH: 这个结构中没有足够多的K线，
15:18 - 15:20
EN: for this to be a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 不足以成为大反转的结构
15:20 - 15:24
EN: It’s therefore a minor trend reversal as long as we stay
ZH: 因此，只要价格仍然低于最近一个重要的高点，
15:24 - 15:28
EN: below the top of the most recent major Lower High, the top of this bear breakout.
ZH: 也就是低于空头突破的起跌点，就仍然只是小反转
15:28 - 15:31
EN: And therefore they’ll add on again.
ZH: 因此，他们会再次加仓
15:31 - 15:35
EN: For example, they might add on 2 points above their second entry,
ZH: 比如，他们会在第2次入场价（第1次加仓的价格） 上方两个点的位置加仓
15:35 - 15:37
EN: and they’d get filled here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
15:37 - 15:40
EN: Or they would sell on a reversal down, below a bear bar,
ZH: 或者在反转下跌时，他们会在阴线下方挂突破卖单
15:40 - 15:42
EN: and they’d get filled right here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
15:42 - 15:43
EN: It’s a big Low 2 short.
ZH: 这是一个大的低2结构
15:44 - 15:49
EN: One leg up, there’s the Low 1, second leg up, and then this is the Low 2.
ZH: 第1段上涨，这是低1； 第2段上涨，这是低2
15:49 - 15:54
EN: It’s also around a 50% pullback in what could end up being a bear channel
ZH: 同时也大约是50%反弹，这可能是一个大的下降通道
15:54 - 15:56
EN: - a reasonable location for bears to sell.
ZH: ——对于空头而言是合理的做空点
15:58 - 16:01
EN: The swing down tested the low close,
ZH: 下跌，测试了前期最低的收盘价
16:01 - 16:04
EN: and they get out breakeven on their first entry,
ZH: 空头的初始仓位打平离场
16:04 - 16:09
EN: 2 points profit on their second entry, 4 points profit on their third entry.
ZH: 第1次加仓的部分赚两个点， 第2次加仓的部分赚4个点
16:10 - 16:13
EN: But again, they only take that trade if they’re trading small enough
ZH: 再次强调，这样做的前提是必须用很小的仓位
16:13 - 16:20
EN: so that the entire risk from all three entries is no more
ZH: 保证3笔仓位加起来的总风险不会大于平时其它交易（的风险）
16:17 - 16:20
EN: than they would have on any other trade.
ZH: 保证3笔仓位加起来的总风险不会大于平时其它交易（的风险）
Slide 009
Time: 16:25
Bilingual Transcript
16:26 - 16:30
EN: When you’re entering during a strong breakout in the direction of the breakout,
ZH: 当你在强势突破期间，顺着突破的方向入场时，
16:30 - 16:37
EN: you have a high probability of making money, and therefore it’s reasonable
ZH: 你的胜率会非常高，因此，如果你的反应足够快， 做剥头皮是合理的
16:34 - 16:37
EN: to scalp if you can make the decisions fast enough.
ZH: 你的胜率会非常高，因此，如果你的反应足够快， 做剥头皮是合理的
Slide 010
Time: 16:39
Bilingual Transcript
16:44 - 16:46
EN: When there’s a strong bear breakout,
ZH: 当出现强势的空头突破时
16:46 - 16:54
EN: the probability of the market moving down X number of ticks
ZH: 市场先跌X个ticks， 而不是先涨X个ticks的概率高达60~80%
16:50 - 16:54
EN: before it goes up X number of ticks is between 60% and 80%.
ZH: 市场先跌X个ticks， 而不是先涨X个ticks的概率高达60~80%
16:54 - 16:59
EN: X can be any size – 2 ticks, 5 ticks, 15 ticks, 27 ticks.
ZH: X可以是任何大小——2 ticks，5 ticks， 15 ticks，27 ticks
17:00 - 17:03
EN: Strong bear breakout, good follow-through.
ZH: 强势的空头突破，良好的跟随
17:03 - 17:07
EN: If you sell this close, there’s at least a 60% chance
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘做空，至少有60%的胜率，
17:07 - 17:11
EN: that the market will fall X number of ticks before it goes up X number of ticks.
ZH: 市场会先跌X个ticks，而不是先涨X个ticks
17:11 - 17:12
EN: You pick the number.
ZH: 你自己决定X是多少
17:12 - 17:16
EN: 5 ticks, probably will fall 5 ticks before it goes up 5 ticks.
ZH: 5 ticks——大概率会先跌5 ticks，而不是先涨5 ticks
17:16 - 17:20
EN: 10 ticks, probably will fall 10 ticks before it goes up 10 ticks.
ZH: 10 ticks——大概率会先跌10 ticks， 而不是先涨10 ticks
17:21 - 17:22
EN: It’s a high probability sell.
ZH: 做空的胜率很高
17:22 - 17:27
EN: At least a 60% chance of a Measured Move based upon the height of the breakout
ZH: 至少有60%的，会跌到MM目标位——基于突破的高度
17:27 - 17:31
EN: - the open of this first bar, the close of that final bar.
ZH: ——从突破第1根K线的开盘，到最后1根K线的收盘
17:33 - 17:36
EN: Let’s say you were using a 2-point stop.
ZH: 假设你设置了两个点（8 ticks）的止损
17:36 - 17:39
EN: Strong momentum down, strong breakout.
ZH: 强势跌破，空头的动能很强
17:39 - 17:44
EN: 60% chance the market will fall 2 points before it rallies 2 points.
ZH: 60%的概率会先跌两个点，而不是先涨两个点
17:45 - 17:48
EN: Reward equal to risk, but probability 60%
ZH: 利润等于风险，但胜率至少是60%
17:48 - 17:51
EN: because of the strength of the bear breakout.
ZH: 因为空头突破非常强势
17:54 - 17:59
EN: Therefore, it’s a reasonable Trader’s Equation
ZH: 因此，在一倍风险的地方止盈离场， 这笔交易的数学期望仍然是合理的
17:56 - 17:59
EN: to exit with a reward equal to your risk.
ZH: 因此，在一倍风险的地方止盈离场， 这笔交易的数学期望仍然是合理的
17:59 - 18:04
EN: You sell that close, and if you want to use the 2-point stop,
ZH: 在它的收盘开仓做空，两个点的止损距离，就在这里
18:02 - 18:04
EN: your stop is right there.
ZH: 在它的收盘开仓做空，两个点的止损距离，就在这里
18:04 - 18:07
EN: You can place a limit order to get out with a 2-point profit,
ZH: 你可以挂一个限价卖单，赚两个点离场，
18:07 - 18:08
EN: which would be right here.
ZH: 就在这个地方
18:12 - 18:15
EN: Here’s a 60-minute chart of the euro versus the dollar.
ZH: 这是欧元兑美元的60分钟K线图
Slide 011
Time: 18:15
Bilingual Transcript
18:16 - 18:25
EN: In a strong bull breakout, the probability of making X pips up
ZH: 在一个强势的多头突破中，先上涨X个pips， 而不是先下跌X个pips的概率高达60~80%
18:21 - 18:25
EN: before X pips down is between 60% and 80%.
ZH: 在一个强势的多头突破中，先上涨X个pips， 而不是先下跌X个pips的概率高达60~80%
18:25 - 18:27
EN: It doesn’t matter what X pips are.
ZH: 不管X是多少
18:27 - 18:31
EN: It could be X could be 5 pips, so the probability of making 5 pips
ZH: X可以是5，所以赚5 pips，
18:31 - 18:34
EN: before losing 5 pips is at least 60%.
ZH: 而不是亏5 pips的概率至少是60%
18:34 - 18:40
EN: The probability of making 29 pips before losing 29 pips, at least 60%.
ZH: 赚29 pips，而不是亏29 pips的概率是60%
18:42 - 18:45
EN: Therefore, the risk equals the reward,
ZH: 因此，风险等于利润，
18:45 - 18:48
EN: but the probability is high, 60% or greater.
ZH: 但胜率很高，有60%或更高
18:48 - 18:52
EN: This trade has a good Trader’s Equation and it’s a good strategy.
ZH: 这笔交易的数学期望不错，这是一个好的策略
18:53 - 18:56
EN: Here we have a very big bull bar breaking out of a Trading Range.
ZH: 这里有一个非常大的阳线，突破了震荡区间
18:56 - 18:57
EN: Bull trend resumption.
ZH: 上涨趋势恢复
18:57 - 19:01
EN: Bull trend, Trading Range, two legs down – one, pullback, two
ZH: 上涨趋势，震荡区间，两段下跌——1，反弹，2
19:01 - 19:05
EN: - and now we’re clearly breaking to the up side and we have a follow-through bar.
ZH: 现在明显向上突破了，而且还有跟随K线
19:05 - 19:10
EN: When you have a strong breakout, close above the high of the past 30 bars,
ZH: 强势的多头突破，收盘高于过去30根K线的最高点
19:10 - 19:11
EN: and then you have a strong follow-through bar,
ZH: 并且跟随K线也很好
19:11 - 19:17
EN: there’s a 60% chance the market is going to rally for a Measured Move based
ZH: 60%的概率，市场会涨到某个MM目标位， 基于突破的高度，比如——
19:15 - 19:17
EN: upon the size of the breakout – for example,
ZH: 60%的概率，市场会涨到某个MM目标位， 基于突破的高度，比如——
19:17 - 19:21
EN: from the open of the first bar to the close of the final bar.
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘到最后1根K线的收盘
19:21 - 19:23
EN: The breakout grew here, and it grew here.
ZH: 突破继续，继续
19:23 - 19:28
EN: If you entered here, there was a 60% chance it would go for a Measured Move
ZH: 如果你在这里入场，60%的概率会涨到MM目标位——
19:28 - 19:32
EN: from this open to that close before it fell below this low.
ZH: 从这个开盘到那个收盘（往上翻一倍）， 而不是先跌破这个低点
19:32 - 19:36
EN: Good strategy to buy the close of that follow-through bar.
ZH: 在那个跟随K线的收盘买入是一个好的策略
19:38 - 19:42
EN: Let’s say you wanted to risk 50 pips and go for a profit target of 50 pips.
ZH: 假设你愿意冒50 pips的风险， 利润目标也是50 pips
19:42 - 19:45
EN: You buy that close, you place a stop 50 pips below.
ZH: 你在这个收盘买入，止损放在下面50 pips
19:45 - 19:50
EN: There’s a 60% chance it’ll go up 50 pips before it goes down 50 pips.
ZH: 60%的概率，市场会先上涨50 pips， 而不是先下跌50 pips
19:50 - 19:54
EN: You can place a limit order to take profits 50 pips above,
ZH: 你可以在上方50 pips的距离挂限价卖单
19:54 - 19:57
EN: and you can see the high of this bar is slightly above that limit order,
ZH: 可以看到，这根K线的高点略微高于你的限价单，
19:57 - 19:59
EN: and you would’ve been filled right here.
ZH: 所以你的止盈单可以在这里成交
20:00 - 20:03
EN: You would exit with a 50-pip profit.
ZH: 这样你就赚了50 pips离场
20:03 - 20:05
EN: I would call that a scalp on a 60-minute chart.
ZH: 我会说它是60分钟图上的一笔剥头皮交易
20:05 - 20:10
EN: You held for only a couple bars, a few bars, and you did not allow any pullbacks.
ZH: 你只持有了几根K线，没有经历任何回调
20:12 - 20:16
EN: This is obviously a strong bull trend in the Emini, a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是ES的5分钟K线图，显然是强上涨趋势
Slide 012
Time: 20:12
Bilingual Transcript
20:16 - 20:18
EN: You can see gaps and negative gaps [Body Gaps].
ZH: 你可以看到缺口和负缺口（实体缺口）
20:18 - 20:24
EN: This high, this low, this high, these lows, this high, these lows.
ZH: 这个高点，这个低点；这个高点，这些低点； 这个高点，这些低点（之间存在缺口）
20:24 - 20:26
EN: It’s a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
20:26 - 20:29
EN: Chances are it’s going to continue a long time.
ZH: 它可能会持续很长时间
20:30 - 20:33
EN: Always In direction is clear.
ZH: 明显处于单边上涨
20:33 - 20:37
EN: Probability is high enough so you can scalp repeatedly instead of swing trading.
ZH: 概率足够高，因此你可以不断地剥头皮，
20:38 - 20:44
EN: For example, a bull scalper can keep buying for any reason
ZH: 多头可以反复入场离场，每次赚1~2个点
20:41 - 20:44
EN: and repeatedly take 1 to 2 points profit.
ZH: 多头可以反复入场离场，每次赚1~2个点
20:44 - 20:48
EN: He could buy below a bear reversal bar, he could buy a bear close,
ZH: 可以在反转阴线下方买入，可以在阴线的收盘买入，
20:48 - 20:50
EN: betting that the bear reversal attempt will fail.
ZH: 押注空头反转的尝试会失败
20:50 - 20:53
EN: He can buy above a bull bar, betting on trend resumption.
ZH: 他可以在阳线上方买入，押注趋势恢复
20:53 - 20:57
EN: We have a bull flag, a Triangle, a bull breakout, a pullback,
ZH: 牛旗，三角形，多头突破，回调
20:57 - 21:00
EN: High 2 pullback – High 1, High 2 – he can buy that.
ZH: 高2回调——高1，高2——可以在这里买入
21:00 - 21:01
EN: You can buy at the market.
ZH: 也可以市价买入
21:01 - 21:04
EN: You can buy for any reason and keep trailing your stop
ZH: 可以出于任何原因买入，然后使用追踪止损——
21:04 - 21:06
EN: below the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 止损放在最近一个重要的低点下方
21:06 - 21:09
EN: A bull breakout here, breakout here.
ZH: 多头突破，这里再次突破
21:09 - 21:10
EN: Maybe you put your stop down here.
ZH: 此时你可以把止损放在这里
21:11 - 21:16
EN: If you buy anywhere in here, you have a new breakout
ZH: 如果你在这里的某个地方买入了， 然后再次突破创新高，有几根不错的阳线
21:14 - 21:16
EN: to a new high with a couple strong bull bars.
ZH: 如果你在这里的某个地方买入了， 然后再次突破创新高，有几根不错的阳线
21:16 - 21:19
EN: If this is going to continue as a Small Pullback Bull Trend,
ZH: 如果市场继续处于这个回调很小的上涨趋势，
21:19 - 21:21
EN: it should not fall below this low.
ZH: 它就不应该跌破这个低点
21:21 - 21:25
EN: So if you buy at any point, even if you bought down here,
ZH: 所以不管你在哪里买入，就算你在很早之前就买入了，
21:25 - 21:30
EN: after you’ve had this leg up, traders can raise their stop to right here.
ZH: 在这段突破之后，都可以把止损抬高的这里
21:32 - 21:39
EN: You could buy and take a point or two profit and just buy repeatedly,
ZH: 你买入之后可以赚1
2个点迅速止盈； 然后再次入场，再赚12个点止盈
21:36 - 21:39
EN: taking 1 or 2 points profit, and you can see
ZH: 你买入之后可以赚1
2个点迅速止盈； 然后再次入场，再赚12个点止盈
21:39 - 21:41
EN: there are at least 10 reasonable buy scalps.
ZH: 可以看到这里至少有10个合理的剥头皮机会
21:41 - 21:45
EN: In fact, there are probably 20 or 30 good buy scalps during this bull trend.
ZH: 实际上，在这个上涨趋势中， 可能有20甚至30个好的剥头皮机会
21:46 - 21:47
EN: So you can buy, exit.
ZH: 所以你可以买入，止盈
21:47 - 21:48
EN: Buy, take profit.
ZH: 买入，止盈
21:48 - 21:48
EN: Buy, take profit.
ZH: 买入，止盈
21:48 - 21:49
EN: Buy, take profit.
ZH: 买入，止盈
21:52 - 21:55
EN: However, as simple as that sounds, it’s very hard to do
ZH: 然而，听起来容易，做起来难
Slide 013
Time: 21:55
Bilingual Transcript
21:55 - 21:59
EN: because a lot of times you’ll exit and then you’ll need to take a break,
ZH: 很多时候，在离场之后，你想要休息一下，
21:59 - 22:03
EN: an emotional break, for several bars, and then you will not reenter.
ZH: 精神上放松几根K线，然后就不愿意再次买入了
22:03 - 22:04
EN: You’ll start thinking that maybe it’ll pull back
ZH: 你会开始想，也许它会回调
22:04 - 22:07
EN: and you’ll get a deeper pullback, maybe it’ll reverse.
ZH: 也许会有更深的回调，也许会反转
22:08 - 22:12
EN: Most traders cannot keep entering and taking profits, entering and taking profits.
ZH: 大多数交易者反复入场、离场、入场、离场
22:12 - 22:14
EN: You end up missing too many trades.
ZH: 所以最终你会错过很多机会
22:19 - 22:20
EN: Strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势的多头突破
22:20 - 22:22
EN: 4 big bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 4根大阳线收在最高
22:22 - 22:32
EN: It’s much more profitable and much more reliably profitable to buy
ZH: 买入，然后坚定持有，直到上涨趋势不再成立， 这样做能赚更多钱（注：而且更轻松）
22:28 - 22:32
EN: and hold on as long as the premise of a strong bull trend is valid.
ZH: 买入，然后坚定持有，直到上涨趋势不再成立， 这样做能赚更多钱（注：而且更轻松）
22:34 - 22:37
EN: For example, you buy above this bull bar and you hold to the end of the day,
ZH: 例如，你在这个阳线上方买入，并一直持有到尾盘
22:37 - 22:40
EN: and you have a bear bar closing on its low,
ZH: 然后你看到这根阴线收在最低
22:40 - 22:44
EN: betting that the market will have some profit-taking into the close.
ZH: 尾盘很可能会有空头获利止盈
22:44 - 22:52
EN: You’re going to make far more money buying here and exiting there
ZH: 在这里买入，在那里离场， 比不断反复入场、离场能赚到更多的钱
22:48 - 22:52
EN: than buying and exiting repeatedly on the way up.
ZH: 在这里买入，在那里离场， 比不断反复入场、离场能赚到更多的钱
22:55 - 22:58
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the euro versus the dollar.
ZH: 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟K线图
Slide 014
Time: 22:55
Bilingual Transcript
22:58 - 23:04
EN: Very strong bear trend, so a trader can sell at any point and scalp if he wants.
ZH: 非常强的下降趋势，所以交易者可以在任何地方做空， 做剥头皮交易
23:04 - 23:08
EN: High probability of making money if you’re scalping, and you can do it repeatedly.
ZH: 如果你做剥头皮，赚钱的概率很高，所以可以反复做
23:10 - 23:14
EN: The direction is clearly down, and we’re probably going lower.
ZH: 显然处于下降趋势，大概率还会继续下跌
23:14 - 23:21
EN: Therefore, high probability of making a reward
ZH: 因此，不管风险是多少，赚到1倍盈亏比的概率很高
23:17 - 23:21
EN: at least as big as your risk, wherever your risk is.
ZH: 因此，不管风险是多少，赚到1倍盈亏比的概率很高
23:23 - 23:30
EN: A bear scalper could keep selling, taking 20 pips profit and then selling again,
ZH: 做空的剥头皮交易者可以不断卖出，赚20 pips离场， 然后再次卖出，一整天都这么做
23:28 - 23:30
EN: and do that all day long.
ZH: 做空的剥头皮交易者可以不断卖出，赚20 pips离场， 然后再次卖出，一整天都这么做
23:31 - 23:34
EN: We have a bear breakout, a follow-through bar.
ZH: 空头突破，跟随K线，在它的收盘卖出
23:33 - 23:34
EN: Sell the close.
ZH: 空头突破，跟随K线，在它的收盘卖出
23:34 - 23:37
EN: A bull bar, so a pullback, sell below the bear bar.
ZH: 这根阳线是反弹，然后在阴线下方卖出
23:37 - 23:39
EN: We have another pullback, sell below the bear bar.
ZH: 又有一些反弹，在阴线下方卖出
23:39 - 23:42
EN: A little inside bar, sell below its low.
ZH: 小的孕线，在它的低点下方卖出
23:42 - 23:46
EN: You can sell the high of this bull bar, betting the reversal up will fail.
ZH: 你可以在这个阳线的高点挂单做空， 押注反转上涨的尝试会失败
23:46 - 23:49
EN: We have a bigger pullback here; you sell below the bear bar
ZH: 有一个更大的反弹，可以在这根阴线，
23:49 - 23:51
EN: or you take the second entry short below this bear bar.
ZH: 或者在这根阴线下方做空——这是第2做空入场点
23:51 - 23:55
EN: Many, many opportunities to scalp here, each one for 20 pips.
ZH: 这里有很多很多剥头皮的机会， 每笔交易都能赚20 pips
23:57 - 24:01
EN: However, most traders cannot keep entering and taking profits.
ZH: 然而，大多数交易者无法做到反复地入场、离场
Slide 015
Time: 24:00
Bilingual Transcript
24:01 - 24:07
EN: They’ll end up not entering again often enough,
ZH: 最终，他们因为交易的频率不够，于是错过了很多机会
24:04 - 24:07
EN: and they’ll end up missing too many good trades.
ZH: 最终，他们因为交易的频率不够，于是错过了很多机会
24:09 - 24:14
EN: Here we have a strong bear breakout
ZH: 强势的空头突破，跌破了这个窄震荡区间，而且有好的跟随
24:11 - 24:14
EN: and a follow-through bar below a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 强势的空头突破，跌破了这个窄震荡区间，而且有好的跟随
24:14 - 24:17
EN: A reasonable short, maybe on the close of that bar.
ZH: 这是合理的做空机会，在它的收盘开仓卖出
24:17 - 24:21
EN: There’s no good reason to get out anywhere through here.
ZH: 途中在这里，这里，都没有任何离场的理由
24:20 - 24:21
EN: Maybe here.
ZH: 途中在这里，这里，都没有任何离场的理由
24:21 - 24:24
EN: The biggest bear breakout late in a bear trend,
ZH: 直到下降趋势后期最大的空头突破
24:24 - 24:26
EN: probably an exhaustive end of the trend.
ZH: 抛售高潮，趋势很可能即将衰竭
24:26 - 24:29
EN: Micro Double Bottom, a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 小双底，有阳线收在最高
24:29 - 24:32
EN: Reasonable location to take profits, final profits,
ZH: 最终在这里止盈离场是合理的
24:32 - 24:35
EN: or maybe here when we’re starting to enter a Triangle.
ZH: 或者在这里离场—— 因为市场进入了三角形（窄震荡区间）
24:39 - 24:46
EN: So a trader selling here and just holding through all of this made a lot of pips
ZH: 所以，如果你在这里开仓做空，然后一直持有， 可以赚很多钱
24:46 - 24:52
EN: - probably a lot more than the scalper who tried to sell,
ZH: 比反复入场、离场、入场、离场的剥头皮交易者赚得多得多
24:49 - 24:52
EN: take profits, sell, take profits, sell, take profits.
ZH: 比反复入场、离场、入场、离场的剥头皮交易者赚得多得多
Slide 016
Time: 24:55
Bilingual Transcript
24:56 - 25:00
EN: Sometimes traders get a surprisingly quick, big profit.
ZH: 市场偶尔会突然奖励交易者——短时间内赚到很多钱
25:03 - 25:08
EN: Oftentimes when you’re swing trading, the stop is very far from the current price,
ZH: 通常当你在做波段交易的时候，止损距离当前的价格很远
25:08 - 25:12
EN: and therefore the risk is very big compared to the remaining reward.
ZH: 因此，与剩余的利润相比，风险非常大
25:12 - 25:17
EN: When that’s the case, you have to be careful about managing your trade.
ZH: 在这种情况下，你必须要小心地管理你的交易
25:19 - 25:23
EN: We have a bear swing and a bear flag, yet we get a bull breakout.
ZH: 下跌波段，熊旗，但是反而向上突破
25:23 - 25:25
EN: We have a pullback from that breakout
ZH: 突破之后有一些回调
25:25 - 25:28
EN: - probably we’re going to get at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 大概率，至少会有小的第2段上涨
25:28 - 25:30
EN: This might end up as a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终它可能会变成震荡区间
25:30 - 25:31
EN: We might test the top of the range.
ZH: 可能会去测试区间的顶部
25:31 - 25:34
EN: It’s reasonable to buy on a stop above that bear bar,
ZH: 在那个阴线上方用突破单买入做多是合理的
25:34 - 25:36
EN: looking for at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 押注至少有小的第2段上涨
25:37 - 25:41
EN: Stop below the bottom of the bear leg, if you’re taking that buy,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，然后把止损放在下跌波段的最低点下方
25:44 - 25:50
EN: and a Measured Move up from the bottom of the bear trend
ZH: 从下降趋势最低点到这段上涨最高点的MM目标位， 就在这个地方
25:47 - 25:50
EN: to the top of this leg up takes you right here.
ZH: 从下降趋势最低点到这段上涨最高点的MM目标位， 就在这个地方
25:50 - 25:54
EN: And you can see what happened when the market reached a Measured Move target.
ZH: 可以看到，当市场到达MM目标位时发生了什么
25:54 - 25:56
EN: A lot of selling.
ZH: 有很多卖盘
25:56 - 26:00
EN: It’s also a breakout above this Lower High, the top of the bear swing,
ZH: 同时也是在测试这个前期的高点
26:00 - 26:02
EN: and you always have some selling there.
ZH: 在这种地方，总是会有一些卖盘
26:02 - 26:05
EN: You’ll have bears exiting with stops.
ZH: 一些空头会用突破买单在这里离场
26:05 - 26:09
EN: You’ll have the bulls who bought here looking at this as a gift,
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，把这个看作是市场的馈赠
26:09 - 26:11
EN: a surprisingly quick big profit,
ZH: ——短时间让他们赚到了很多钱——
26:11 - 26:15
EN: and they’ll take points at or above a prior high.
ZH: 所以他们在这个高点附近止盈
26:15 - 26:19
EN: You’ll have other bears who will look at this as a potential Trading Range
ZH: 也有一些空头会把这个看作是一个大的震荡区间——
26:19 - 26:22
EN: - big down, big up, big confusion, Trading Range likely
ZH: 大跌，大涨，大的困惑，这是震荡区间的特征
26:22 - 26:24
EN: - they’ll place limit orders to sell here.
ZH: 所以他们会在这里挂限价卖单，开仓做空
26:24 - 26:27
EN: So lots of reasons to sell around that prior high.
ZH: 所以有很多理由，应该在那个高点附近卖出
26:28 - 26:33
EN: Whenever a trader is buying for a swing and the market quickly reaches
ZH: 如果你原本是为了做波段交易而买入， 但是市场很快就到达了一个合理的目标位，
26:33 - 26:38
EN: a logical target, it’s perfectly fine to exit, even if it’s on the same bar.
ZH: 就算是入场之后的同1根K线就达到了目标， 止盈离场是完全合理的做法
26:39 - 26:41
EN: Is that a swing or a scalp?
ZH: 那到底算是波段还是剥头皮？
26:41 - 26:45
EN: Well, you got a swing size profit, but in a scalp timeframe.
ZH: 你赚到了波段的利润，但是持仓时间却很短
26:45 - 26:49
EN: The very same bar in which you entered, you took profits.
ZH: 你在入场的同一根K线上止盈
26:55 - 26:58
EN: One of the terrible things that beginners sometimes do
ZH: 新手有时会犯的一个非常可怕的错误是，
Slide 017
Time: 26:55
Bilingual Transcript
26:58 - 27:06
EN: is they take a trade for a scalp, it does not go their way,
ZH: 他们打算做一笔剥头皮，但是没有朝着预期的方向发展， 然后他们就把它做成了波段交易（不止损，越亏越多）
27:02 - 27:06
EN: it starts to go against them, and they decide to convert the scalp into a swing.
ZH: 他们打算做一笔剥头皮，但是没有朝着预期的方向发展， 然后他们就把它做成了波段交易（不止损，越亏越多）
27:06 - 27:08
EN: That is a losing strategy.
ZH: 这是亏损的策略
Slide 018
Time: 27:10
Bilingual Transcript
27:13 - 27:15
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the Emini.
ZH: 这是ES的5分钟K线图
27:15 - 27:19
EN: It’s really impossible for most traders to scalp repeatedly in a trend.
ZH: 对大多数交易者来说，在趋势中反复剥头皮是非常困难的
27:20 - 27:25
EN: It’s okay to look for really great setups and use big volume,
ZH: 等待很好的机会，然后重仓交易，
27:25 - 27:28
EN: and you can theoretically make a living doing that.
ZH: 理论上你可以靠这个赚钱
27:28 - 27:31
EN: Most professional traders, even those who scalp most of the time,
ZH: 但是大多数职业交易员，即使是那些一直做剥头皮的人，
27:31 - 27:34
EN: swing as much as they can because they know
ZH: 也会尽可能地做波段交易，因为他们知道，
27:34 - 27:38
EN: that it’s very difficult to make money simply scalping alone.
ZH: 仅靠剥头皮交易赚钱是非常困难的
27:38 - 27:41
EN: You have to swing trade at least part of the time.
ZH: 至少一部分时间要做波段交易
27:42 - 27:46
EN: I have a video in this series on extreme scalping,
ZH: 在这个课程的Bonus 14，我展示了实盘的极限剥头皮交易
27:46 - 27:48
EN: and I talk more about how to scalp repeatedly.
ZH: 关于如何反复地剥头皮，之后会更详细地讲
27:50 - 27:53
EN: If you have a great setup, don’t scalp,
ZH: 如果你发现了一个很好的机会，不要剥头皮，
27:53 - 27:56
EN: because it’s probably going to end up being a swing trade.
ZH: 因为它最终大概率会是一个很好的波段交易
27:56 - 28:00
EN: Great setups do not happen often, but when they do happen,
ZH: 好的机会不常见，但当它们出现时，
28:00 - 28:03
EN: you have to be aware that you have a great setup in front of you.
ZH: 你必须意识到，你的面前有一个非常棒的机会
28:04 - 28:05
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 看这个
28:05 - 28:07
EN: We have a bear trend, we have a bull reversal attempt.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头尝试反转
28:07 - 28:08
EN: It failed.
ZH: 失败了
28:08 - 28:12
EN: We’re trying to reverse up again here – strong enough breakout to the down side,
ZH: 这里再次尝试反转上涨——向下的突破足够强势，
28:12 - 28:14
EN: probably at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
28:14 - 28:17
EN: Maybe this is the second leg down, but not a good buy signal bar,
ZH: 也许这是第2段下跌，但没有好的做多信号K线
28:17 - 28:19
EN: so a lot of traders will not buy that.
ZH: 所以很多交易者不会在这里买入
28:19 - 28:23
EN: But again, we have another strong reversal up, just like we had here.
ZH: 然而，价格大幅反弹，就像之前这里一样
28:23 - 28:27
EN: We have another attempt down by the bears, and another reversal bar,
ZH: 再次下跌，又出现了反转的阳线
28:27 - 28:29
EN: and this bar is closing on its high.
ZH: 而且它收在最高
28:29 - 28:31
EN: This is a third entry buy.
ZH: 这是第3做多入场点
28:31 - 28:36
EN: It’s a small Expanding Triangle – too small to call this a Major Trend Reversal;
ZH: 这是一个小的扩张三角形—— 结构太小，不能说它是大反转的结构
28:36 - 28:41
EN: however, it could be a Trading Range bottom that could lead to a reversal up.
ZH: 然而，这可能是震荡区间的底部，可能会反转上涨
28:41 - 28:45
EN: This is a high probability trade for at least a scalp,
ZH: 这是一笔高胜率的交易机会——至少可以剥头皮
28:45 - 28:49
EN: and if you’re taking this for a scalp, it’s better to be aware
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，打算做剥头皮， 你也应该意识到，
28:49 - 28:53
EN: that this could be the end of a leg down
ZH: 这可能是下跌波段的结束
28:53 - 28:56
EN: and we could easily test the top of this Sell Climax.
ZH: 很容易就会上涨，测试这个抛售高潮的起跌点
28:56 - 28:58
EN: And therefore, if you’re looking for a scalp,
ZH: 因此，如果打算做剥头皮，
28:58 - 29:00
EN: I would not be too quick to take profits.
ZH: 我不会太快止盈
29:00 - 29:04
EN: I would consider swinging at least part of the trade.
ZH: 我会考虑至少一部分仓位去做波段
29:07 - 29:08
EN: The math, it’s okay for scalping.
ZH: 数学上，剥头皮交易是合理的
29:08 - 29:12
EN: You buy above the high of this bar, you get filled early on
ZH: 你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单，
29:12 - 29:17
EN: during this big bull trend bar, and you can scalp for 2 points, risking 2 points.
ZH: 在这根大阳线的早期就成交了， 你可以冒两个点的风险，轻松地赚到两个点
29:17 - 29:19
EN: The probability is high that you’ll make your 2 points.
ZH: 很大的概率，你可以赚到两个点
29:19 - 29:21
EN: The math is acceptable for a scalp.
ZH: 数学上，剥头皮是可以接受的
29:23 - 29:28
EN: However, if you’re thinking about a possible swing trade and you do not exit here,
ZH: 然而，如果你考虑到波段的可能性， 并且没有在这里离场，
29:28 - 29:32
EN: you wait for a logical end to the trend – is this a logical end to the trend?
ZH: 然后等待趋势结束的合理信号—— 这是趋势结束的信号吗？
29:32 - 29:33
EN: Probably not.
ZH: 大概率不是
29:33 - 29:34
EN: What about this?
ZH: 那这个呢？
29:34 - 29:39
EN: Well, you got 5 bars up without a bear body and you got a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 连续上涨了5根K线，途中没有阴线， 而且这个上涨通道非常的窄
29:39 - 29:41
EN: Probably the first reversal down will be minor,
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是小反转
29:41 - 29:43
EN: and we’ll get at least a little bit more up.
ZH: 至少会再上涨一些
29:43 - 29:46
EN: Strong bull breakout here, at least one more leg up.
ZH: 这里有强势的多头突破，至少还有1段上涨
29:46 - 29:48
EN: Maybe this is the one more leg up.
ZH: 也许这就是第2段上涨
29:48 - 29:50
EN: We’re getting near the top of the bear trend;
ZH: 现在已经接近下降趋势的起跌点
29:50 - 29:54
EN: it could be converting into a Trading Range – big down, big up, Trading Range.
ZH: 它可能会变成震荡区间——大跌、大涨，震荡区间
29:54 - 29:58
EN: This is a reasonable place for traders to exit.
ZH: 在这里离场是合理的
29:58 - 30:03
EN: If he bought here and he exited here, he took about 10 points profit,
ZH: 如果在这里买入，在这里离场，最终赚了10个点的利润
30:03 - 30:07
EN: and that’s better than five 2-point scalps.
ZH: 远远好于做5笔两个点的剥头皮交易
30:07 - 30:11
EN: The trader who bought here and took the 2-point scalp misunderstood
ZH: 在这里买入，做两个点剥头皮的多头，
30:11 - 30:14
EN: that this could lead to a pretty good reversal up, a swing up.
ZH: 没有意识到这有可能会变成一个非常好的反转上涨的波段
30:14 - 30:18
EN: Maybe a swing down for a couple hours, swing up for a couple hours.
ZH: 也许在下跌几个小时之后，会上涨几个小时
30:18 - 30:21
EN: This is a good setup for a swing up,
ZH: 这是一个好的做多的波段机会
30:21 - 30:25
EN: and in general it’s better not to be too quick to take profits
ZH: 通常，最好不要太快止盈
30:25 - 30:27
EN: and try to swing at least part of your trade.
ZH: 至少一部分仓位做波段交易
30:33 - 30:36
EN: One of the biggest reasons for beginners losing money
ZH: 新手亏钱的最大原因之一是：
Slide 019
Time: 30:35
Bilingual Transcript
30:36 - 30:40
EN: is that they confuse swing trades with scalp trades.
ZH: 他们混淆了波段交易和剥头皮交易
30:42 - 30:46
EN: They mix up swing and scalp entries and exits.
ZH: 他们混淆了波段和剥头皮的入场和离场
30:46 - 30:49
EN: For example, if you take a swing trade, manage it as a swing trade.
ZH: 例如，如果你想做波段交易，就按照波段交易来管理
30:49 - 30:50
EN: Don’t scalp.
ZH: 不要剥头皮
30:52 - 30:57
EN: A small Expanding Triangle, consecutive Sell Climaxes here, here, here.
ZH: 小的扩张三角形；这里，这里，这里是连续的抛售高潮
30:58 - 30:59
EN: A good-looking buy signal bar.
ZH: 一个漂亮的做多信号K线
30:59 - 31:04
EN: Bull bar closing on its high, bull follow-through bar,
ZH: 阳线收在最高，还有跟随K线，也是阳线收在最高
31:02 - 31:04
EN: bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 阳线收在最高，还有跟随K线，也是阳线收在最高
31:04 - 31:06
EN: This is a reasonably good swing setup.
ZH: 这是一个相当好的波段机会
31:07 - 31:12
EN: If you bought thinking “Oh wow, what a great possibility for a swing trade.
ZH: 如果你买入的时候想：“哇！很有可能是一笔波段交易！
31:12 - 31:17
EN: Maybe we’ll test here, maybe we’ll test here,” don’t scalp for 2 points profit.
ZH: 也许会测试这里，也许会测试这里” 那就不要在赚了两个点之后就止盈
31:17 - 31:20
EN: If you entered thinking that it was a reasonable swing trade,
ZH: 如果你入场时认为这是一笔合理的波段交易
31:20 - 31:21
EN: don’t convert it into a scalp.
ZH: 那就不要把它做成剥头皮交易
31:27 - 31:31
EN: If you’re buying this for a swing trade, manage it like a swing trade,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，是为了做波段， 那就按照波段交易去管理
31:31 - 31:36
EN: and you exit up here when the probability of higher prices becomes much less.
ZH: 然后在这里离场，因为继续上涨的概率已经变得很小
Slide 020
Time: 31:40
Bilingual Transcript
31:40 - 31:44
EN: Another big problem with beginners is they think they’re taking a scalp,
ZH: 新手的另一个大问题是：他们一开始想做剥头皮，
31:44 - 31:47
EN: and then they decide to manage it like a swing trade.
ZH: 结果最后做成了波段交易
31:47 - 31:49
EN: That is a losing strategy.
ZH: 这样做是亏损的策略
31:51 - 31:55
EN: If you take a trade planning to scalp, rely on a scalp stop
ZH: 如果剥头皮，就按照剥头皮的止损去执行，
31:55 - 31:57
EN: and don’t pretend it’s now a swing trade.
ZH: 不要假装是在做波段交易
31:59 - 32:02
EN: Here we have a small pullback after a Buy Climax.
ZH: 这里的抢购高潮之后，小幅回调了一些
32:02 - 32:05
EN: Traders should expect at least a little bit more up,
ZH: 交易者预期至少还会再涨一点
32:05 - 32:08
EN: but we’re getting near the top of the bear trend.
ZH: 但是已经接近下降趋势的起跌点了
32:08 - 32:10
EN: Big down, big up, big confusion.
ZH: 大跌，大涨，大的困惑
32:10 - 32:12
EN: Probably going sideways soon.
ZH: 大概率即将进入横盘
32:12 - 32:16
EN: And look at the number of small doji bars
ZH: 看一看自从第1次回调之后，趋势中小十字星的数量
32:14 - 32:16
EN: since the market had this first pullback.
ZH: 看一看自从第1次回调之后，趋势中小十字星的数量
32:16 - 32:18
EN: This looks like a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这看起来像是震荡区间中的上涨波段
32:18 - 32:20
EN: If you’re buying up here,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入
32:20 - 32:22
EN: you might be buying pretty close to the top of that range.
ZH: 你很可能买在震荡区间的顶部
32:23 - 32:26
EN: This is a Buy Climax late in a bull trend.
ZH: 这是上涨趋势后期的抢购高潮
32:26 - 32:34
EN: Probably going to be an Exhaustion Gap, and the market will probably pull back
ZH: 很可能是竭尽型缺口，市场大概率会回调到突破点的下方， 以及抢购高潮起涨点的下方
32:30 - 32:34
EN: below the breakout point and below the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 很可能是竭尽型缺口，市场大概率会回调到突破点的下方， 以及抢购高潮起涨点的下方
32:34 - 32:39
EN: Buying up here, low probability bet that you’re going to get much higher prices.
ZH: 在这里买入，继续上涨的概率较低
32:40 - 32:43
EN: Three pushes up, one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向上推动——1，2，3
32:43 - 32:46
EN: Nested Wedge, one, two, three.
ZH: 嵌套式楔形——1，2，3
32:50 - 32:53
EN: There are many firms out there that specialize in high frequency trading,
ZH: 有很多机构专门做高频交易
Slide 021
Time: 32:50
Bilingual Transcript
32:53 - 32:56
EN: and they do it using computer algorithms.
ZH: 他们使用计算机算法进行交易
32:56 - 32:59
EN: There are a few traders, very successful, profitable scalpers,
ZH: 有少数非常成功的剥头皮交易员，
32:59 - 33:03
EN: who manually do high frequency trading.
ZH: 他们手动做高频交易 （注：手动的高频远远比不上电脑程序）
33:04 - 33:06
EN: High frequency trading is a type of scalp.
ZH: 高频交易是剥头皮交易的一种（极端）
33:06 - 33:09
EN: You’re looking for a small profit, usually your risk is not all that big,
ZH: 你的目标是很小的利润，通常风险也很小
33:09 - 33:13
EN: and you need a high probability of success to do it profitably.
ZH: 你需要很高的胜率才能盈利
33:14 - 33:18
EN: Computers can take every signal and manage the trades perfectly.
ZH: 电脑程序可以抓住所有机会，并且完美地管理交易
33:19 - 33:22
EN: For example, these are all reasonable scalps.
ZH: 例如，这些都是合理的剥头皮机会
33:23 - 33:26
EN: Small bear flag, sell the close, sell the close.
ZH: 小熊旗，在它和它的收盘卖出做空
33:26 - 33:31
EN: Sell the reversal up, betting it’ll be either a bull leg
ZH: 在反弹的时候卖出，押注这只是震荡区间或熊旗中的一段上涨
33:29 - 33:31
EN: in a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 在反弹的时候卖出，押注这只是震荡区间或熊旗中的一段上涨
33:31 - 33:34
EN: Sell the reversal down, same thing here.
ZH: 在反转下跌时卖出做空，这里也是一样
33:34 - 33:38
EN: Strong bull bar in a Tight Bear Channel; first reversal up will probably fail.
ZH: 窄下降通道中的大阳线，第1次反转上涨大概率会失败
33:38 - 33:41
EN: We have a selloff, a second close.
ZH: 大阴线，有跟随阴线，做空
33:40 - 33:41
EN: Sell it.
ZH: 大阴线，有跟随阴线，做空
33:41 - 33:44
EN: Here we have a bear bar after a Buy Climax.
ZH: 在抢购高潮之后有一根阴线
33:44 - 33:46
EN: Disappointing bar.
ZH: 多头感到失望
33:46 - 33:48
EN: Probably will pull back at least a little bit more.
ZH: 可能会有更多的回调
33:48 - 33:51
EN: The bulls will probably need at least a Micro Double Bottom before they buy.
ZH: 多头至少需要看到小双底才会买入 （注：所以空头有一次逢高做空的剥头皮机会）
33:51 - 33:53
EN: Here we have a second leg up.
ZH: 这里有第2段上涨
33:53 - 33:54
EN: We’re getting fairly high up in the range.
ZH: 已经到了区间的顶部附近
33:54 - 33:57
EN: We have a breakout above the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 突破了抛售高潮的起跌点
33:57 - 34:00
EN: Bears will sell again, bulls will take profits.
ZH: 空头会再次做空，多头会止盈离场
34:00 - 34:04
EN: Here we have a bull flag, but it’s a doji after a Buy Climax.
ZH: 这里有一个牛旗，但它是抢购高潮后的十字星
34:04 - 34:05
EN: Low probability buy.
ZH: 做多的胜率较低
34:05 - 34:07
EN: Therefore traders will sell.
ZH: 所以反而可以做空
34:07 - 34:09
EN: We have a High 2 buy, but a bear doji.
ZH: 这是高2买点，但是有小阴线
34:09 - 34:11
EN: Probably at least a little bit more down.
ZH: 大概率还会至少再下跌一些
34:11 - 34:15
EN: We have a bull breakout, a second leg up and a bear bar.
ZH: 多头突破，第2段上涨，然后是阴线
34:15 - 34:16
EN: Sell the reversal down.
ZH: 做空，押注反转下跌
34:16 - 34:21
EN: Here, we have probably a Lower High Major Trend Reversal, a weak rally,
ZH: 这里，高点降低的大反转机会，上涨较弱
34:21 - 34:23
EN: small bars, probably going at least a little bit more down.
ZH: K线体积都很小，大概率还会再下跌一些
34:23 - 34:26
EN: All are reasonable scalps.
ZH: 这些都是合理的剥头皮机会
34:27 - 34:29
EN: Many buy scalps as well.
ZH: 也有很多做多的剥头皮机会
34:29 - 34:33
EN: You buy the reversal up, you buy closes, you buy below that bull bar,
ZH: 反转上涨时买入，在它的收盘买入， 在那个阳线下方逢低买入，
34:33 - 34:35
EN: betting that the bear reversal will fail.
ZH: 押注空头反转的尝试会失败
34:35 - 34:39
EN: Here we have a Micro Double Top – up here, down here, up here.
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶——上涨，下跌，再上涨
34:39 - 34:43
EN: Probably going to get at least a second leg up from this strong rally,
ZH: 这个强势上涨之后，大概率至少会有小的第2段上涨
34:43 - 34:44
EN: so traders will buy that low.
ZH: 所以交易者会在那个低点挂限价买单
34:44 - 34:46
EN: They’ll buy the bear close.
ZH: 他们也会买阴线的收盘
34:46 - 34:48
EN: They’ll buy above this bar, a High 2 buy.
ZH: 他们会在这根K线上方买入——这是高2做多入场点
34:48 - 34:50
EN: High 1 above this bar, High 2 here.
ZH: 这根K线的上方是高1，这里是高2
34:50 - 34:57
EN: Here we’ve got a Wedge bull flag, three pushes down
ZH: 这里有一个楔形牛旗，3次向下推动—— 1，2，然后3，甚至4
34:53 - 34:57
EN: - one, two, and then three or four.
ZH: 这里有一个楔形牛旗，3次向下推动—— 1，2，然后3，甚至4
34:57 - 34:59
EN: You have a bull inside bar, a Higher High Double Bottom.
ZH: 有多头孕线，低点抬高的双底
34:59 - 35:02
EN: You’ve got a bull breakout of the Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 向上突破牛旗
35:02 - 35:05
EN: You have a pullback.
ZH: 回调之后，这里有一个小的牛旗
35:03 - 35:05
EN: Here you got a small bull flag,
ZH: 回调之后，这里有一个小的牛旗
35:05 - 35:08
EN: here you got a Micro Double Bottom and a Higher Low.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底，低点抬高
35:08 - 35:12
EN: All of these are reasonable scalps, and computers can take all of them
ZH: 这些都是合理的剥头皮机会，电脑程序可以全部执行
35:12 - 35:15
EN: - and a really good trader can take all or most of them.
ZH: 一个非常优秀的交易员也可以抓住全部，或大部分机会
35:15 - 35:17
EN: But very few traders can do that,
ZH: 但只有很少人能做到
35:17 - 35:23
EN: and many who can do not want to do it because it’s not fun for them.
ZH: 很多人就算能做到，也不想这么做， 因为这实在没有乐趣
35:25 - 35:29
EN: It’s very difficult for people to do this profitably and for the long term.
ZH: 很难稳定盈利，也很难长期这么做
35:29 - 35:35
EN: Therefore, traders should not be looking for manual high frequency type of scalps.
ZH: 因此，交易者不应该尝试做手动的高频交易
Slide 022
Time: 35:40
Bilingual Transcript
35:40 - 35:44
EN: In this video, I talked about how you can enter a trade as a swing,
ZH: 这节课，我先讲了有时候你打算做波段交易，
35:44 - 35:46
EN: but then as the trade unfolds,
ZH: 但随着行情的发展，
35:46 - 35:50
EN: you decide it’s no longer a valid swing and you could scalp out.
ZH: 你发现波段交易的前提已经不再成立， 此时可以剥头皮离场
35:52 - 35:56
EN: When there’s a strong breakout, the probability of the market continuing is high,
ZH: 在强势突破期间，趋势继续的概率非常高
35:56 - 35:58
EN: and therefore traders can scalp.
ZH: 因此可以做剥头皮交易
35:58 - 36:01
EN: In any high probability situation, traders can scalp.
ZH: 在任何高胜率的情况下，交易者都可以做剥头皮
36:02 - 36:07
EN: Finally, if you manage a scalp like a swing, you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 最后，我强调了，如果把剥头皮交易做成了波段交易， 你一定会亏钱
36:12 - 36:13
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
36:13 - 36:15
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
36:15 - 36:19
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 波段交易和剥头皮交易的4节课，到这里就全部讲完了