al-brooks-course
44B - Trading Tight Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 44B - Trading Tight Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 13
- Transcript segments: 422
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易窄下降通道的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: I want to make an important point in this video,
ZH: 这节课主要想强调一点：
00:16 - 00:21
EN: and that is that if the market’s in a bear trend, especially a strong bear trend
ZH: 如果市场处于下降趋势，尤其是强下降趋势
00:21 - 00:24
EN: like a breakout or a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 比如突破阶段，或窄通道
00:24 - 00:31
EN: reversals are usually minor, which means they usually lead to bear flags
ZH: 反转通常无法形成相反的趋势，也就是说， 它们会变成熊旗或震荡区间
00:29 - 00:31
EN: or possibly Trading Ranges.
ZH: 反转通常无法形成相反的趋势，也就是说， 它们会变成熊旗或震荡区间
00:31 - 00:34
EN: But the odds are the bear trend will continue.
ZH: 下降趋势继续的概率很高
Slide 002
Time: 00:35
Bilingual Transcript
00:39 - 00:45
EN: At some point in here, everyone agrees that the market
ZH: 跌到这里附近，每个人都同意市场处于窄下降通道——下降趋势
00:42 - 00:45
EN: is in a Tight Bear Channel – in other words, a bear trend.
ZH: 跌到这里附近，每个人都同意市场处于窄下降通道——下降趋势
00:48 - 00:50
EN: The market keeps trying to reverse,
ZH: 市场不断尝试反转
00:50 - 00:53
EN: and every reversal is followed by lower prices.
ZH: 但每次反弹之后都会跌破创新低
00:53 - 00:56
EN: That means every reversal is either a Trading Range or a bear flag,
ZH: 也就是说，每次反转的尝试，要么变成熊旗，要么变成震荡区间
00:57 - 01:01
EN: and traders should be looking to sell reversals, not buy reversals.
ZH: 所以交易者应该顺势做空，而不是买入抄底
01:01 - 01:06
EN: Even if a seller happened to sell the lowest close in the trend at this point,
ZH: 就算空头卖在某个阶段性的最低点
01:06 - 01:10
EN: the risk of losing money is small if he manages his trade well.
ZH: 只要正确地管理，亏钱的概率是非常小的
01:10 - 01:14
EN: By managing a trade, I mean using an appropriate stop.
ZH: 管理交易的意思是：使用合理的止损
01:14 - 01:18
EN: And the probability of making money is higher if a trader can scale in
ZH: 如果能够正确加仓的话，赚钱的概率就更高了
01:18 - 01:22
EN: because any reversal is probably going to be minor
ZH: 因为任何上涨大概率都只是小反转
01:22 - 01:26
EN: and lead to a test back down to the low of the bear trend.
ZH: 市场至少会再次跌回到前期的低点
01:29 - 01:37
EN: If a trader were to sell here, he would put his stop
ZH: 如果在这里卖出做空， 应该把止损放在最近一个重要的高点上方，比如这个高点
01:32 - 01:37
EN: above the most recent major Lower High, and this is a major Lower High.
ZH: 如果在这里卖出做空， 应该把止损放在最近一个重要的高点上方，比如这个高点
01:37 - 01:39
EN: We have a series of bear bars and a new low.
ZH: 因为它后面有一连串阴线，下跌创新低
01:39 - 01:40
EN: Is this a major Lower High?
ZH: 这是一个重要的高点吗？
01:40 - 01:41
EN: I don’t know.
ZH: 不够重要
01:41 - 01:44
EN: It’s not that dramatic.
ZH: 后续的下跌还不够剧烈，没有跌太多
01:43 - 01:44
EN: There’s not much selling.
ZH: 后续的下跌还不够剧烈，没有跌太多
01:44 - 01:45
EN: It’s 3 bear bars.
ZH: 只是3根小阴线
01:45 - 01:48
EN: If you did put a stop here, I think it’s probably a minor high,
ZH: 我认为这个高点没有那么重要， 如果你把止损放在这里
01:48 - 01:52
EN: and you can see the market went above it over here, yet the bear trend resumed.
ZH: ——可以看到，尽管市场突破了它， 但下降趋势仍然恢复了
02:00 - 02:05
EN: Whenever you have a strong bear trend – in this case a very Tight Bear Channel
ZH: 每当看到强下降趋势——比如这个很窄的下降通道
02:05 - 02:13
EN: - the market usually has to become a Trading Range before the bulls have a chance
ZH: 市场通常需要先进入震荡区间， 才能让多头有机会制造大反转、进入上涨趋势
02:09 - 02:13
EN: at reversing it, creating a Major Trend Reversal into a bull trend.
ZH: 市场通常需要先进入震荡区间， 才能让多头有机会制造大反转、进入上涨趋势
02:14 - 02:19
EN: And therefore there’s very little probability
ZH: 所以如果止损设置正确，被打掉的概率是非常小的
02:17 - 02:19
EN: that an appropriate stop is going to get hit.
ZH: 所以如果止损设置正确，被打掉的概率是非常小的
02:19 - 02:21
EN: Most reversal attempts fail.
ZH: 大多数反转的尝试都会失败
02:21 - 02:25
EN: Tried to reverse, tried to reverse, tried to reverse, did not hit the stops.
ZH: 尝试反转，尝试反转，尝试反转，但没有打到空头的止损
02:31 - 02:34
EN: As I said, I think this is a fairly minor Lower High.
ZH: 正如刚才所说，我认为这个高点没有那么重要
02:34 - 02:36
EN: The rally is not all that strong.
ZH: 形成这个高点的反弹并不是很强势
02:36 - 02:37
EN: The selloff is just a few bars.
ZH: 后面的下跌也只是几根K线
02:37 - 02:39
EN: They’re not particularly big.
ZH: 阴线的体积并不是特别大
02:39 - 02:42
EN: We have bigger bars here, here, here.
ZH: 不像之前这里、这里、这里的阴线那么大
02:42 - 02:48
EN: Therefore, this might lead to a Trading Range or a bear flag,
ZH: 因此，反弹更有可能会变成震荡区间或熊旗， 而不是形成上涨趋势
02:46 - 02:48
EN: but probably not a bull trend.
ZH: 因此，反弹更有可能会变成震荡区间或熊旗， 而不是形成上涨趋势
02:49 - 02:53
EN: You can see this rally broke above the top of the bear channel,
ZH: 反弹突破了下降趋势线
02:53 - 02:55
EN: but it’s only a few bars at this point.
ZH: 但只有几根K线
02:55 - 02:59
EN: At this point it’s maybe 6 or 7 bars, and not particularly strong.
ZH: 到了这里，反弹持续了六七根K线，但并不算特别强势
02:59 - 03:06
EN: Therefore, if we form a Higher Low, especially if the Higher Low
ZH: 所以，就算低点暂时抬高—— 尤其如果只有4根K线下跌（注：K线数量不够多）
03:03 - 03:06
EN: comes from only 4 bars down, it’s probably part
ZH: 所以，就算低点暂时抬高—— 尤其如果只有4根K线下跌（注：K线数量不够多）
03:06 - 03:10
EN: of a Trading Range and not a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 那么它可能只是震荡区间的一部分，而不是大反转的结构
03:11 - 03:14
EN: The bulls tried three times to reverse the bear trend,
ZH: 多头3次尝试反转下降趋势
03:14 - 03:19
EN: and none of the reversals was enough to convert the trend to Always In Long.
ZH: 但没有一次能让市场进入单边上涨
03:19 - 03:20
EN: It remained Always In Short,
ZH: 市场一直处于单边下跌
03:20 - 03:26
EN: and therefore you can look at this as a Trading Range or as a bear flag.
ZH: 因此，你可以把它看作是震荡区间或熊旗
03:26 - 03:30
EN: Usually if it’s just a few bars, I call it a pullback, a bear flag.
ZH: 通常，如果只有几根K线，我就称之为反弹、熊旗
03:30 - 03:31
EN: And here we have two legs up.
ZH: 尽管这里有两段上涨
03:31 - 03:34
EN: It’s still probably a pullback, a bear flag.
ZH: 它仍然大概率只是反弹、熊旗
03:34 - 03:38
EN: Once it gets to be about 20 bars, I tend to use the term “Trading Range.”
ZH: 一旦发展到20根K线左右，我就开始用“震荡区间”这个词
03:38 - 03:43
EN: However, the odds still favor trend resumption down rather than trend reversal up.
ZH: （尽管进入了震荡区间）继续下跌的概率仍然高于反转上涨
03:43 - 03:45
EN: There’s just not much Buying Pressure.
ZH: 买压实在不够大
03:45 - 03:52
EN: The rallies are just not strong enough to make traders believe
ZH: 反弹并不够强势， 不足以让交易者相信多头真的能掌控市场、形成上涨趋势
03:48 - 03:52
EN: that the bulls actually can take control and create a bull trend.
ZH: 反弹并不够强势， 不足以让交易者相信多头真的能掌控市场、形成上涨趋势
03:59 - 04:06
EN: No clear Major Trend Reversal pattern and no Wedge Bottom,
ZH: 通常需要明显的大反转结构、楔形底等，才能制造大反转， 但这里都没有
04:04 - 04:06
EN: which often leads to a major reversal.
ZH: 通常需要明显的大反转结构、楔形底等，才能制造大反转， 但这里都没有
04:07 - 04:12
EN: Therefore, only a 30% chance
ZH: 因此，这些反转的尝试只有30%的概率能成功进入上涨趋势
04:09 - 04:12
EN: that any one of these reversals will lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 因此，这些反转的尝试只有30%的概率能成功进入上涨趋势
04:12 - 04:20
EN: 70% chance the reversals will be minor and lead to bull legs
ZH: 70%的概率，它们最多只是震荡区间中的上涨波段，或者只是熊旗
04:17 - 04:20
EN: in Trading Ranges or simply become bear flags.
ZH: 70%的概率，它们最多只是震荡区间中的上涨波段，或者只是熊旗
04:20 - 04:25
EN: Bear flag, here it’s a bear flag, still probably a bigger bear flag,
ZH: 熊旗，它也是熊旗，这个仍然是熊旗，只不过略大一些
04:25 - 04:26
EN: like a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 双顶熊旗
04:26 - 04:29
EN: At this point I would call it a Trading Range,
ZH: 到了这里，我会说它是一个震荡区间
04:29 - 04:31
EN: but not much Buying Pressure
ZH: 但买压不够大
04:31 - 04:36
EN: and still not enough bars to make the probability the same
ZH: 也还没有足够多的K线使得多空双方的概率接近50对50
04:34 - 04:36
EN: for the bulls as it is for the bears.
ZH: 也还没有足够多的K线使得多空双方的概率接近50对50
04:36 - 04:39
EN: The probability still favors trend resumption down.
ZH: 趋势继续下跌的概率仍然更大
04:45 - 04:49
EN: A reasonably strong bear breakout to a new low, a series of 4 bear bars.
ZH: 相当强势的跌破创新低，连续4根阴线
Slide 003
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:49 - 04:50
EN: One of them is pretty big.
ZH: 其中有一根阴线很大
04:50 - 04:53
EN: I would call this a major Lower High.
ZH: 所以它变成了一个重要的高点
04:53 - 04:59
EN: As long as the trend is continuing
ZH: 只要重要的高点不断降低，下降趋势就仍然完好
04:54 - 04:59
EN: to make major Lower Highs, the trend is in effect.
ZH: 只要重要的高点不断降低，下降趋势就仍然完好
04:59 - 05:02
EN: If the market starts to go above major Lower Highs,
ZH: 如果市场开始突破重要的高点
05:02 - 05:03
EN: then it’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 那就不一定还是下降趋势了
05:03 - 05:07
EN: It’s then either a Trading Range or possibly a bull trend.
ZH: 很可能要么是震荡区间，甚至变成了上涨趋势
05:13 - 05:16
EN: As I said, we have a new low and 3 bear bars,
ZH: 刚才也讲到，这里下跌创新低，但只有3根阴线
05:16 - 05:19
EN: but they’re not particularly big compared to the prior breakouts,
ZH: 和前面的突破相比，这些阴线的体积也不大
05:19 - 05:23
EN: and therefore this is not a major Lower High.
ZH: 所以这个高点就没有那么重要
05:23 - 05:27
EN: It’s a minor Lower High, and that increases the chances
ZH: 它是一个次要的高点，这增加了横盘的概率
05:25 - 05:27
EN: that we’re going to go sideways.
ZH: 它是一个次要的高点，这增加了横盘的概率
05:30 - 05:32
EN: This is an acceptable stop,
ZH: 止损放在这里也能接受——
05:32 - 05:34
EN: just a little bit above the top of this Lower High.
ZH: 就放在这个高点的上方
05:35 - 05:39
EN: If you get stopped out and the market remains Always In Short,
ZH: 如果你被止损了，但市场仍然处于下降趋势，
05:39 - 05:42
EN: you look to sell again either here or here.
ZH: 你可以在这里、或这里再次入场做空
05:52 - 05:55
EN: In general if the market’s Always In Short and it rallies,
ZH: 通常来说，如果市场在单边下跌，然后有一些反弹
05:55 - 06:01
EN: and let’s say you exit for any reason – let’s say you exited above this bull bar
ZH: 假设出于某个原因你提前离场了—— 假设在创新低之后，你在这根阳线的上方离场了
05:59 - 06:10
EN: after a Lower Low – it’s still Always In Short
ZH: 假设出于某个原因你提前离场了—— 假设在创新低之后，你在这根阳线的上方离场了 尽管反弹了六七根K线，但市场仍然处于下降趋势， 所以坚定的趋势交易者会在强势阴线的下方再次卖出做空
06:03 - 06:10
EN: after these 6 bars, 7 bars, and therefore always in bears will look to sell again
ZH: 尽管反弹了六七根K线，但市场仍然处于下降趋势， 所以坚定的趋势交易者会在强势阴线的下方再次卖出做空
06:08 - 06:10
EN: below a bear bar that closes below its low.
ZH: 尽管反弹了六七根K线，但市场仍然处于下降趋势， 所以坚定的趋势交易者会在强势阴线的下方再次卖出做空
06:11 - 06:15
EN: That would be below this bar, and they would get filled right here.
ZH: 比如在这根阴线下方挂突破卖单，订单会在这里成交
Slide 004
Time: 06:20
Bilingual Transcript
06:21 - 06:27
EN: A lot of bears prefer to use the top of a major Lower High for their stop,
ZH: 很多空头更偏向于把止损放在重要的高点上方
06:27 - 06:29
EN: and some of these bears, if they sell here
ZH: 其中一部分人，如果他们在这里卖出做空，
06:29 - 06:34
EN: and they see the market rally for 6 bars, 7 bars, they’ll add on.
ZH: 然后看到市场反弹了六七根K线，他们会加仓
06:34 - 06:35
EN: They’ll sell more.
ZH: 在上方卖出更多
06:35 - 06:38
EN: They’ll look to sell below a bear bar and get filled here.
ZH: 他们会在阴线的下方加仓，订单在这里成交
06:39 - 06:45
EN: They’ll take the second entry as long as it’s at least two
ZH: 只要加仓的地方距离初始入场点至少有两三个点 （注：剥头皮最小目标的两到三倍）
06:42 - 06:45
EN: or three times bigger than the minimum scalp.
ZH: 只要加仓的地方距离初始入场点至少有两三个点 （注：剥头皮最小目标的两到三倍）
06:45 - 06:50
EN: In the Emini, a minimum scalp is 1 point, and therefore the bears will sell more
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点，
06:50 - 06:55
EN: below a bear bar if the second entry is 2 or 3 points above the first.
ZH: 如果它比初始入场价格高两三个点的话， 空头会在它的下方加仓做空
06:55 - 06:58
EN: Sometimes it’s 5 or 6 or 7 points above the first,
ZH: 有时加仓的位置比初始入场价格高5、6、7个点
06:58 - 07:03
EN: but as long as the stop has not been hit, traders will add on.
ZH: 只要止损没被打掉（注：且前提仍然成立的话） 空头就可以加仓
07:03 - 07:07
EN: The goal is to get out breakeven at their original entry
ZH: 目标是初始仓位打平
07:08 - 07:12
EN: and then with a profit that is at least as big
ZH: 加仓的部分至少可以赚到剥头皮的利润
07:10 - 07:12
EN: as a minimum scalp on their second entry.
ZH: 加仓的部分至少可以赚到剥头皮的利润
07:18 - 07:22
EN: It has to fall below that first entry to get filled,
ZH: 市场必须跌破初始入场价格1个tick，才能确保成交 （注：这里是刚好碰到，没能再往下1个tick）
07:22 - 07:28
EN: so most of the bears who sold this close
ZH: 所以大部分在这里开仓做空、并且在这根阴线下方加仓的空头， 没有能够在这里止盈
07:24 - 07:28
EN: and/or below this bear bar did not get filled here.
ZH: 所以大部分在这里开仓做空、并且在这根阴线下方加仓的空头， 没有能够在这里止盈
07:28 - 07:31
EN: It hit their limit order price, but did not fill.
ZH: 价格刚好碰到了他们的限价买单，但不一定能成交
07:31 - 07:35
EN: A lot of those bears would then get out above a bull reversal bar
ZH: 这些空头之中的很多人会在反转的阳线上方离场
07:35 - 07:37
EN: or possible Double Bottom Higher Low.
ZH: 这里也是潜在的低点抬高的双底
07:37 - 07:42
EN: Even though it’s still probably minor – not enough bars down for a major reversal
ZH: 尽管这个双底大概率也只是小反转—— 没有足够多的K线来形成大反转结构
07:42 - 07:46
EN: - a lot of the bears will get out and then look to sell again
ZH: 很多空头会暂时先离场，然后等待再次做空的机会
07:46 - 07:48
EN: below another bear bar, for example here.
ZH: 比如在这根阴线下方再次卖出
07:53 - 07:57
EN: You do not have to get out here because this is still a minor reversal.
ZH: 不离场也可以，因为它仍然只是小反转
07:57 - 08:02
EN: 7 bars up, not moving up all that far, not consecutive big bull trend bars,
ZH: 尽管上涨了7根K线，但涨幅并不大，没有连续的大阳线
08:02 - 08:03
EN: not much Buying Pressure.
ZH: 买压不够大
08:03 - 08:07
EN: And then the test of the low is only 3 or 4 bars,
ZH: 然后回测前期低点，只下跌了三四根K线
08:07 - 08:12
EN: and that’s usually not enough for a major pattern.
ZH: 通常这样的结构太小了，不足以形成大反转
08:09 - 08:12
EN: It’s usually too small for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 通常这样的结构太小了，不足以形成大反转
08:12 - 08:15
EN: Usually it’s a minor reversal and a Trading Range.
ZH: 大概率只是小反转、震荡区间
08:15 - 08:22
EN: However, it’s reasonable to get out because there’s probably better
ZH: 然而，空头提前离场是合理的， 因为此时反转上涨的概率比之前的30%更高了
08:19 - 08:22
EN: than a 30% chance that we’re going a lot higher.
ZH: 然而，空头提前离场是合理的， 因为此时反转上涨的概率比之前的30%更高了
08:23 - 08:27
EN: And then you could always sell again when the bear trend resumes, if it resumes.
ZH: 如果反转失败，下降趋势恢复， 空头可以再次卖出做空
Slide 005
Time: 08:30
Bilingual Transcript
08:31 - 08:34
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel, and on the next higher timeframe,
ZH: 非常窄的下降通道，在略微更高的时间周期，
08:34 - 08:38
EN: a 15-minute chart or a 30- or 60-minute chart,
ZH: 比如15分钟、或30分钟、或60分钟的K线图上
08:38 - 08:41
EN: it’s probably just a series of bear bars closing on or near their lows.
ZH: 它很可能就是一连串阴线收在最低
08:41 - 08:44
EN: It’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 它在更高的时间周期上就是一次突破
08:44 - 08:46
EN: Very strong bear trend.
ZH: 非常强的下降趋势
08:46 - 08:49
EN: The pullbacks are all very small and only a few bars.
ZH: 反弹都很小，只有几根K线
08:49 - 08:52
EN: Traders should trade it like a breakout – only sell.
ZH: 应该像交易突破一样去交易它——只做空、不做多
08:52 - 08:56
EN: You cannot make money buying when a trend is this small
ZH: 通道这么窄，反弹这么小，做多是赚不到钱的
08:55 - 08:56
EN: and the pullbacks are this small.
ZH: 通道这么窄，反弹这么小，做多是赚不到钱的
09:02 - 09:04
EN: You could argue that we’re in a Trading Range here,
ZH: 也许有人说这里是震荡区间
09:04 - 09:08
EN: but once you have a decent size breakout with a decent follow-through bar,
ZH: 然而，一旦有较大的阴线向下跌破，而且还有好的跟随，
09:08 - 09:16
EN: a bear bar closing near its low, the market’s probably going down
ZH: 也是一根阴线收在最低，那么市场至少会继续下跌到MM目标位， 甚至这个下降趋势可能会持续一整天
09:11 - 09:16
EN: for at least a Measured Move and possibly
ZH: 也是一根阴线收在最低，那么市场至少会继续下跌到MM目标位， 甚至这个下降趋势可能会持续一整天
09:14 - 09:16
EN: a bear trend for the remainder of the day.
ZH: 也是一根阴线收在最低，那么市场至少会继续下跌到MM目标位， 甚至这个下降趋势可能会持续一整天
09:16 - 09:18
EN: The market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 已经进入单边下跌
09:18 - 09:21
EN: The odds are it’s going at least a little bit lower.
ZH: 至少会再下跌一些
09:25 - 09:26
EN: How do you enter?
ZH: 怎么入场？
09:26 - 09:29
EN: Simplest thing to do is right around the close of that bar,
ZH: 最直接的方法，就是在跟随K线收盘时
09:29 - 09:32
EN: either a few seconds before or a few seconds later,
ZH: 早几秒晚几秒都可以
09:32 - 09:39
EN: you just hit “Sell the Market” and put your stop
ZH: 点击“市价卖出”，然后把止损放在大阴线的上方， 或者放在这个高点的上方
09:35 - 09:39
EN: just above the top of the Sell Climax, or maybe above this Lower High.
ZH: 点击“市价卖出”，然后把止损放在大阴线的上方， 或者放在这个高点的上方
09:44 - 09:47
EN: You can also sell above any bar,
ZH: 也可以在任何一根K线的上方挂限价卖单
09:47 - 09:50
EN: betting that reversal attempts will be minor and they’ll fail.
ZH: 押注所有的上涨都只是小反转、都会失败
09:51 - 09:53
EN: And any time you see a bull close,
ZH: 每当你看到有一根阳线收盘，
09:53 - 09:56
EN: an attempt to reverse the trend, the channel is very tight.
ZH: 尝试反转下降趋势，但这个下降通道非常窄
09:56 - 09:59
EN: The reversal attempts almost certainly fail,
ZH: 反转的尝试几乎一定会失败
09:59 - 10:01
EN: and therefore you can sell bull closes.
ZH: 所以你可以在阳线的收盘卖出做空
10:03 - 10:07
EN: Or if you prefer stop entries you see a reversal attempt like this
ZH: 或者，如果你偏向于用突破单入场，
10:07 - 10:14
EN: and you see bad follow-through, a bear bar, on the next bar place a stop order
ZH: 当你看到这根阳线尝试反转， 但后面的跟随很糟糕，是阴线 你可以在它的下方挂突破卖单，就在这个地方
10:11 - 10:14
EN: to go short just below its low, right here.
ZH: 你可以在它的下方挂突破卖单，就在这个地方
10:14 - 10:16
EN: Another bull breakout attempt and then a bear bar.
ZH: 多头再次尝试反转，但跟随是阴线
10:16 - 10:19
EN: You sell on a stop right below its low.
ZH: 在它的下方挂突破卖单
10:19 - 10:20
EN: You get filled right here.
ZH: 在这里成交
10:21 - 10:26
EN: The bulls who bought see that they’re not getting consecutive big bull trend bars
ZH: 那些买入的多头，发现没有连续的大阳线
10:26 - 10:29
EN: breaking far above the top of the bear channel.
ZH: 没有大幅突破下降趋势线
10:29 - 10:30
EN: They have a second attempt here,
ZH: 他们在这里又尝试了一次
10:30 - 10:34
EN: and the bear trend is resuming a second time here.
ZH: 下降趋势第2次恢复
10:34 - 10:37
EN: The bear trend tried to resume here; the bulls got one more leg up.
ZH: 这里是下降趋势第1次尝试恢复， 多头又制造了一段反弹
10:37 - 10:41
EN: If the bear trend is resuming a second time, usually the bulls give up,
ZH: 如果下降趋势第2次恢复，通常多头就会放弃
10:41 - 10:47
EN: and that’s one of the reasons why Low 2 shorts
ZH: 这就是为什么在强下降趋势中， 低2做空入场点这么可靠的原因之一
10:44 - 10:47
EN: are so reliable in strong bear trends.
ZH: 这就是为什么在强下降趋势中， 低2做空入场点这么可靠的原因之一
10:50 - 10:52
EN: Where do you put the stop?
ZH: 止损放在哪里？
10:52 - 10:54
EN: Is it reasonable to put your stop right above the breakout?
ZH: 放在突破的阴线上方是否合理？
10:54 - 10:57
EN: Well, if this is going to be the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 嗯，如果接下来真的是一个大的下降趋势
10:57 - 11:01
EN: it should not go above the top of this 2 bar bear breakout,
ZH: 那么这两根阴线的起跌点就不应该被跌破
11:01 - 11:05
EN: and therefore it’s reasonable to use the tight stop or even a tight stop here.
ZH: 所以把止损放在这里或这里是合理的，尽管它们比较窄
11:05 - 11:09
EN: The most recent major Lower High is probably here, the start of the bear trend.
ZH: 最近一个重要的高点在这里，整个下降趋势的起跌点
11:09 - 11:11
EN: But these are reasonable.
ZH: 这两个也是合理的
11:12 - 11:15
EN: In general, any reasonable stop is good,
ZH: 通常来说，任何合理的止损都可以
11:15 - 11:20
EN: and if you take this trade 10 times using a tight stop versus using a wider stop,
ZH: 用窄止损做100笔交易，再用宽止损做100笔交易
11:20 - 11:23
EN: your total profit will be about the same.
ZH: 最后总的利润是差不多的
11:23 - 11:25
EN: You’ll lose more often with the tighter stop;
ZH: 窄止损会更频繁地被打掉（但每次亏得比较少）
11:25 - 11:33
EN: however, the few times you do lose with the wider stop
ZH: 尽管宽止损更少被打掉，但最终两者总的亏损是差不多的
11:29 - 11:33
EN: will be about the same as the total losses from the tighter stop.
ZH: 尽管宽止损更少被打掉，但最终两者总的亏损是差不多的
11:33 - 11:36
EN: Any reasonable stop is appropriate.
ZH: 任何合理的止损都是正确的
Slide 006
Time: 11:40
Bilingual Transcript
11:42 - 11:44
EN: Once you decide that the market’s Always In Short,
ZH: 一旦你判断市场处于单边下跌
11:44 - 11:46
EN: then you believe the market is going down,
ZH: 那么说明你相信它会继续下跌
11:46 - 11:50
EN: and that means you have to get short at least a small position.
ZH: 所以你至少应该用小仓位做空
11:50 - 11:54
EN: And as I said, the easiest way to get short is simply sell at the market.
ZH: 刚才说了，最简单直接的方式就是市价卖出
11:59 - 12:04
EN: We have a pullback, and once you have a pullback
ZH: 这里有一些反弹， 一旦出现反弹，就意味着趋势进入了通道阶段
12:02 - 12:04
EN: the market is then in a channel phase.
ZH: 这里有一些反弹， 一旦出现反弹，就意味着趋势进入了通道阶段
12:04 - 12:12
EN: We have a bear Micro Channel, no pullback here for about 7 or 8 bars,
ZH: 下降微通道，连续下跌7根K线没有反弹，通道非常窄； 现在有一些反弹
12:09 - 12:12
EN: fairly Tight Channel, and now we’re reversing up.
ZH: 下降微通道，连续下跌7根K线没有反弹，通道非常窄； 现在有一些反弹
12:12 - 12:15
EN: The first pullback will almost certainly fail
ZH: 第一次反弹几乎一定会失败
12:15 - 12:17
EN: and the market will go at least a little bit lower.
ZH: 市场至少还会再下跌一些
12:17 - 12:20
EN: Once you get a pullback in any kind of a breakout
ZH: 不管是什么样的突破，只要开始反弹——
12:20 - 12:23
EN: - here we have a strong bear breakout and still follow-through,
ZH: 强势跌破，连续良好的跟随，
12:23 - 12:26
EN: no pullback through these 3 bars – now we got a pullback.
ZH: 接下来的3根K线也没有反弹——现在开始反弹了
12:26 - 12:29
EN: So for me, that’s the start of a channel phase.
ZH: 在我看来，这是通道阶段的开始
12:29 - 12:31
EN: Obviously the channel began up here.
ZH: 当然，也可以说通道从这里就开始了
12:32 - 12:35
EN: We have a breakout in the channel and then another pullback,
ZH: 它是通道中的一次突破，然后再次反弹
12:35 - 12:39
EN: so we have a breakout here and then a resumption of the bear channel.
ZH: 这里跌破之后，下降通道恢复 （注：其实就是通道中的强势下跌波段）
12:39 - 12:42
EN: We had a bear channel and then a bear breakout,
ZH: 下降通道，然后向下突破
12:42 - 12:45
EN: and now the channel phase is resuming again.
ZH: 现在回到了通道阶段
12:50 - 12:56
EN: Another bear breakout, strong enough so that we’ll probably get
ZH: 再次向下跌破，足够强势，所以至少还有一段下跌
12:54 - 12:56
EN: at least a small second leg down,
ZH: 再次向下跌破，足够强势，所以至少还有一段下跌
12:56 - 13:00
EN: and we obviously got another 50 or 60 bars down.
ZH: 当然，后来继续下跌了五六十根K线
13:06 - 13:10
EN: Again, if a trader is flat and he did not go short,
ZH: 和刚才一样，如果目前没有仓位，或者还没有做空
13:11 - 13:13
EN: he can sell the close of that bear bar.
ZH: 可以在阴线的收盘卖出
13:13 - 13:16
EN: We have a bear breakout bar closing below its midpoint
ZH: 向下跌破的这根阴线收在低位
13:16 - 13:19
EN: and then we have a second bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 跟随的阴线也收在最低
13:20 - 13:26
EN: It’s in general not best to sell at the bottom of any channel, but it’s reasonable.
ZH: 总体来说，在通道的下沿卖出不是最好的选择， 但也是合理的做法
13:26 - 13:28
EN: This is a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的下降通道
13:28 - 13:29
EN: It’s a breakout on a higher timeframe.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上是突破
13:29 - 13:31
EN: The odds are we’re going lower.
ZH: 大概率会继续下跌
13:31 - 13:36
EN: Again, the easiest way to enter, if you’re flat and you’re wondering what to do,
ZH: 再讲一遍，如果目前没有做空，但是想入场应该怎么办？
13:36 - 13:40
EN: you find out where your stop is – that determines your risk
ZH: 首先确定止损该放在哪里——这决定了你的风险是多少
13:40 - 13:42
EN: and that tells you what position size you can take
ZH: 根据止损距离，你可以算出应该用多少仓位
13:42 - 13:44
EN: - and just trade small and sell at the market.
ZH: 然后直接市价卖出就可以了
13:45 - 13:51
EN: Either you can wait for this bar to close near its low
ZH: 你可以等它收盘收在最低，然后点击“市价卖出”， 订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
13:47 - 13:51
EN: and then just sell at the market and get filled on the next bar,
ZH: 你可以等它收盘收在最低，然后点击“市价卖出”， 订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
13:50 - 13:54
EN: the open of the next bar, or just sell a second or two before this bar closes.
ZH: 你可以等它收盘收在最低，然后点击“市价卖出”， 订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交 或者在它收盘前一两秒开仓
Slide 007
Time: 14:00
Bilingual Transcript
14:04 - 14:10
EN: Whenever the market’s in a bear trend, one of the first things
ZH: 每当市场处于下降趋势的时候， 我总是会先去观察限价单多头能不能赚钱
14:06 - 14:10
EN: I always look at is whether or not the limit order bulls can make money.
ZH: 每当市场处于下降趋势的时候， 我总是会先去观察限价单多头能不能赚钱
14:10 - 14:13
EN: If a bull buys at a prior low and scales in lower,
ZH: 如果一个多头在前期低点挂限价单买入，并且在更低的价格加仓
14:14 - 14:17
EN: will the rally go above the breakout point?
ZH: 反弹会超过突破点吗？
14:17 - 14:20
EN: That would allow him to get out breakeven on his first entry
ZH: 如果超过突破点，那么这些多头的初始仓位就能打平
14:20 - 14:22
EN: and then with a scalper’s profit on his lower entry.
ZH: 加仓的部分能赚到剥头皮的利润
14:23 - 14:26
EN: And look: we have a gap, and here we have another gap.
ZH: 仔细看：这里有缺口，这里又有缺口
14:26 - 14:31
EN: This market is not allowing limit order bulls to make money,
ZH: 市场没有让限价单多头赚到钱
14:31 - 14:33
EN: and therefore it’s a very tight bear trend.
ZH: 因此，这是一个非常窄的下降趋势
14:33 - 14:38
EN: It’s a Small Pullback Bear Trend, and the odds are it’s going lower.
ZH: 是反弹很小的下降趋势，大概率会继续下跌
14:38 - 14:41
EN: However, once the bulls can start to make money,
ZH: 然而，一旦多头开始赚钱
14:41 - 14:48
EN: then I call it a stairs pattern, and that increases the chances
ZH: 我就称之为阶梯模式，这增加了市场很快变成震荡区间的概率
14:45 - 14:48
EN: that the market will soon evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 我就称之为阶梯模式，这增加了市场很快变成震荡区间的概率
14:50 - 14:56
EN: Whenever there’s a breakout and then a bar trades above the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 在突破之后，如果一根K线超过了前一根K线的最高点，那就是反弹
14:53 - 14:56
EN: that’s a pullback, and I always assume
ZH: 在突破之后，如果一根K线超过了前一根K线的最高点，那就是反弹
14:56 - 14:59
EN: that the market is in the early part of a channel.
ZH: 此时我会假设市场开始进入通道阶段
14:59 - 15:07
EN: If there are stairs – in other words, breakouts that pull back
ZH: 如果有阶梯——换句话说，突破、反弹超过突破点， 那就是又一个双向交易的信号（注：做多也能赚到钱）
15:02 - 15:07
EN: beyond breakout points – that is another sign of two-sided trading,
ZH: 如果有阶梯——换句话说，突破、反弹超过突破点， 那就是又一个双向交易的信号（注：做多也能赚到钱）
15:07 - 15:10
EN: and instead of a breakout, which is one-sided,
ZH: 市场不再处于单边的突破阶段了
15:10 - 15:13
EN: the market now has some two-sided trading.
ZH: 现在做多做空都能赚钱
15:13 - 15:14
EN: It’s probably in a channel.
ZH: 所以大概率是通道阶段
15:17 - 15:20
EN: Here, we have a breakout below this low
ZH: 这里跌破了前期的低点，
15:25 - 15:30
EN: and the top of this pullback
ZH: 但反弹的最高点超过了突破点
15:27 - 15:30
EN: is above the breakout point, that low,
ZH: 但反弹的最高点超过了突破点
15:30 - 15:33
EN: and therefore this is a stair step down.
ZH: 所以这是阶梯式的下跌
15:33 - 15:36
EN: That’s a good sign that the breakout phase has ended
ZH: 说明突破阶段已经结束
15:36 - 15:38
EN: and the market is now in a channel.
ZH: 市场现在处于通道中
15:38 - 15:42
EN: This pullback is not enough for limit order bulls to be buying.
ZH: 这个反弹不足以让限价单多头赚钱
15:42 - 15:47
EN: This channel is still far too tight, and bulls should not be buying.
ZH: 通道仍然太窄，不应该买入做多
15:47 - 15:51
EN: However, it’s one sign that the breakout phase has ended
ZH: 然而，这是突破阶段结束的一个信号
15:51 - 15:53
EN: and the channel phase has begun.
ZH: 说明通道阶段已经开始
Slide 008
Time: 15:55
Bilingual Transcript
16:03 - 16:07
EN: Whenever you look at a chart and you believe it’s a trend
ZH: 每当你看着K线图，认为市场处于趋势的时候
16:07 - 16:12
EN: - for example, somewhere in here you have to conclude
ZH: ——例如，在这里的某个地方，你必须判断市场处于下降趋势
16:10 - 16:18
EN: that the market’s in a bear trend – then you know that there’s a 60% chance
ZH: ——例如，在这里的某个地方，你必须判断市场处于下降趋势 说明你知道至少有60%的概率，会继续下跌
16:14 - 16:18
EN: or more that the market will go lower, at least a little bit lower.
ZH: 说明你知道至少有60%的概率，会继续下跌
16:19 - 16:22
EN: Whenever you look at it, you say, “Oh, where are all the big bear bars?
ZH: 也许你会认为：“额，我好像没看到大阴线？
16:22 - 16:24
EN: These bear bars are fairly small.
ZH: 这些阴线都很小
16:24 - 16:26
EN: The market keeps reversing.
ZH: 一直有一些反弹
16:26 - 16:27
EN: Maybe it’s not really a bear trend.
ZH: 也许它并不是真正的下降趋势
16:27 - 16:30
EN: Maybe it’s a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.”
ZH: 也许这个下跌波段很快就会变成震荡区间。”
16:30 - 16:35
EN: However, you look at how tight it is and you can see a gap
ZH: 然而，看看它有多么窄， 而且在这个低点和那个高点之间存在缺口
16:34 - 16:39
EN: between this low and that high, and then we got gaps
ZH: 然而，看看它有多么窄， 而且在这个低点和那个高点之间存在缺口 在这个高点和这个低点之间也有缺口
16:37 - 16:39
EN: between this high and this low.
ZH: 在这个高点和这个低点之间也有缺口
16:39 - 16:41
EN: The market is strongly bearish.
ZH: 显然强势看跌
16:41 - 16:43
EN: You know it’s going lower.
ZH: 你知道它会继续下跌
16:43 - 16:46
EN: It never feels like 60% or 70% chance of making money,
ZH: 也许永远感觉不到60%或70%那么自信
16:46 - 16:52
EN: but when a bear channel is this tight, it is 60% to 70% chance of making money
ZH: 但这么窄的下降通道，不管什么时候入场做空， 不管出于什么理由做空
16:52 - 16:56
EN: entering at any time, for any reason, using the appropriate stop.
ZH: 只要设置合理的止损，有60%到70%的概率可以赚钱
17:02 - 17:05
EN: Here we got 3 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 这里有连续3根阳线
17:05 - 17:07
EN: Maybe the trend is reversing.
ZH: 趋势正在反转吗？
17:07 - 17:10
EN: No, the channel is still very tight, and therefore any reversal,
ZH: 不，这个通道仍然非常窄，因此任何上涨
17:10 - 17:14
EN: even 3 consecutive bull bars, is most likely minor
ZH: 即使有连续3根阳线，也只是小反转
17:14 - 17:17
EN: and it will be followed by a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 后面下降趋势会恢复的
17:19 - 17:22
EN: When you’re watching this real time, it’s easy to get frightened.
ZH: 在实盘的时候，很容易感到害怕
17:22 - 17:30
EN: “Oh my gosh, I’m short and it’s going to take my money.
ZH: “妈呀，我刚才做空了，机构要割我韭菜了，止损要被打掉了！” 但实际上止损被打掉的概率很小
17:25 - 17:30
EN: It’s going to hit my stop.” Well, the reality is the odds of that are small.
ZH: “妈呀，我刚才做空了，机构要割我韭菜了，止损要被打掉了！” 但实际上止损被打掉的概率很小
17:30 - 17:31
EN: Any reversal is minor.
ZH: 都只是小反转而已
17:31 - 17:34
EN: Until after there’s a big minor reversal,
ZH: 除非出现了非常强势的小反转 （然后开始形成大反转的结构）
17:34 - 17:39
EN: the odds of the market converting into a Trading Range or a bull trend are small.
ZH: 否则市场进入震荡区间或上涨趋势的概率是很小的
17:46 - 17:48
EN: What about the probability for the bears?
ZH: 空头在胜率上的优势如何？
17:48 - 17:51
EN: I said the probability is high that it’s going lower.
ZH: 我讲了，继续下跌的概率很高
17:51 - 17:53
EN: Well, when you start having pullbacks like this,
ZH: 然而，出现这样的反弹之后
17:53 - 17:58
EN: the probability of lower prices is not quite as high
ZH: 继续下跌的概率就不像强势突破时那么高了
17:56 - 17:58
EN: as when you have a strong breakout.
ZH: 继续下跌的概率就不像强势突破时那么高了
17:58 - 18:00
EN: However, it’s still very high.
ZH: 但仍然足够高
18:01 - 18:05
EN: Also, because of the pullbacks, there’s less time pressure.
ZH: 此外，如果有反弹的话，时间上的压力就比较小
18:05 - 18:07
EN: That gives you more opportunity to trade.
ZH: 给了你更多的交易机会
18:07 - 18:10
EN: In other words, do I sell here or do I wait a few bars?
ZH: 如果你不确定：我应该直接做空，还是再等几根K线？
18:10 - 18:12
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 不用着急
18:12 - 18:16
EN: You can wait a few bars and see
ZH: 你可以等几根K线，发现两段反弹并没有反转趋势
18:13 - 18:16
EN: that a couple legs up are not reversing the trend.
ZH: 你可以等几根K线，发现两段反弹并没有反转趋势
18:16 - 18:19
EN: Then you can sell a Low 2 short below that bear bar.
ZH: 然后你可以在那根阴线的下方卖出——它是低2做空入场点
18:29 - 18:36
EN: No matter where you short, if you’re trading this on a higher timeframe chart
ZH: 如果你在更高的时间周期交易，它是一次突破， 没有反弹，所以止损在这个高点上方
18:33 - 18:36
EN: and you see that it’s a breakout, no pullbacks, your stop is up here.
ZH: 如果你在更高的时间周期交易，它是一次突破， 没有反弹，所以止损在这个高点上方
18:36 - 18:40
EN: If you’re trading it on the 5-minute chart, your stop might be there or here.
ZH: 如果你就在5分钟图上交易，你的止损可以放在这里，或这里
18:40 - 18:44
EN: So the risk is about the same as for a breakout.
ZH: 和突破时入场的止损差不多大
18:46 - 18:50
EN: The reward, usually a little bit less because you’re getting pullbacks,
ZH: 但利润可能会少一些，因为开始出现反弹
18:50 - 18:53
EN: and that means the trend is a little bit weaker.
ZH: 说明趋势变弱了一点点
18:53 - 18:57
EN: However, the risk/reward is still good and the probability is still good,
ZH: 但盈亏比仍然很不错，胜率也足够高
18:57 - 18:59
EN: and traders should short.
ZH: 所以应该做空
Slide 009
Time: 19:05
Bilingual Transcript
19:06 - 19:11
EN: The biggest problem that you have is the evolution of a channel
ZH: 最大的问题是，通道会演变为震荡区间
19:10 - 19:19
EN: into a Trading Range – yet even the first reversal up, if it’s very strong,
ZH: 最大的问题是，通道会演变为震荡区间 但第一次反转，不管多么强势，都是小反转， 也就是说至少会跌回到前期的低点
19:15 - 19:19
EN: is still minor, which means you’ll still probably get a test down
ZH: 但第一次反转，不管多么强势，都是小反转， 也就是说至少会跌回到前期的低点
19:19 - 19:23
EN: and the bulls will probably need
ZH: 而多头需要一个大的结构，比如某种双底，才能制造大反转
19:21 - 19:23
EN: a Major Trend Reversal, some kind of a Double Bottom.
ZH: 而多头需要一个大的结构，比如某种双底，才能制造大反转
19:23 - 19:25
EN: Here, it’s a Higher Low.
ZH: 这里是低点抬高的（大反转）
19:25 - 19:26
EN: Could be a Lower Low.
ZH: 也可能低点降低的（大反转）
19:27 - 19:30
EN: And at this point we don’t know if it’s going to lead to a major reversal.
ZH: 我们看不到后面有没有成功地大反转
19:30 - 19:33
EN: However, this is such a strong bull breakout
ZH: 但这一段上涨是如此的强势
19:33 - 19:36
EN: that the odds are we’re going to get a test back up here
ZH: 很大的概率，至少会回测前期的高点
19:36 - 19:40
EN: and the bear channel has now evolved into a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降通道现在已经变成震荡区间了
19:40 - 19:44
EN: Trading Range means it goes up, it goes down,
ZH: 震荡区间意味着市场上涨、下跌、然后会尝试再次上涨
19:43 - 19:44
EN: and then it tries to go up again.
ZH: 震荡区间意味着市场上涨、下跌、然后会尝试再次上涨
19:52 - 20:01
EN: Whenever you have a bear channel, there’s a 75% chance that eventually
ZH: 只要是下降通道，最终就有75%的概率会向上突破， 然后市场进入震荡区间
19:57 - 20:01
EN: you’ll get a bull breakout and the market evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 只要是下降通道，最终就有75%的概率会向上突破， 然后市场进入震荡区间
20:01 - 20:06
EN: 25% chance you’ll get a strong bear breakout
ZH: 25%的概率市场能加速向下跌破，进入更强的下降趋势
20:04 - 20:06
EN: and then an even stronger bear trend,
ZH: 25%的概率市场能加速向下跌破，进入更强的下降趋势
20:06 - 20:10
EN: starting the market cycle over again.
ZH: 市场周期重新开始——空头突破、反弹、进入下降通道
20:08 - 20:10
EN: Bear breakout and then channel down.
ZH: 市场周期重新开始——空头突破、反弹、进入下降通道
20:12 - 20:15
EN: Once you look at this chart at the end of the day and ask yourself,
ZH: 如果收盘之后回过头来看
20:15 - 20:18
EN: where did the Trading Range begin?, you’d say, well,
ZH: 震荡区间是从哪里开始？
20:18 - 20:22
EN: it’s actually been sideways for a whole bunch of bars, like 60 or 70 bars.
ZH: 实际上一直在震荡，可能有六七十根K线
20:22 - 20:25
EN: It’s still in a bear trend, still in a bear channel,
ZH: 此时仍然处于下降趋势，仍然是下降通道
20:25 - 20:29
EN: but once you have this strong rally and then you see it going sideways here,
ZH: 然而，一旦出现了强势的反弹，接着开始横盘
20:29 - 20:35
EN: you look back and you’ll discover that actually,
ZH: 回过头看，你会发现这个部分同时也处于震荡区间
20:32 - 20:35
EN: it was also in a Trading Range here.
ZH: 回过头看，你会发现这个部分同时也处于震荡区间
20:35 - 20:38
EN: And even though this is still part of the bear channel,
ZH: 尽管此时下降通道还没结束
20:38 - 20:43
EN: this part of the bear channel was a bear leg in what became a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降通道的最后一段，很快就变成了震荡区间
Slide 010
Time: 20:45
Bilingual Transcript
20:51 - 20:53
EN: We have a breakout to a new low.
ZH: 这里跌破了前期的低点
20:53 - 20:56
EN: Just lasted 1 bar, and then you get a pullback.
ZH: 只持续了一根K线，然后立刻反弹
20:57 - 21:00
EN: And as trends go on, they tend to become weaker,
ZH: 随着趋势的发展，它往往会变弱
21:00 - 21:02
EN: and they tend to evolve into Trading Ranges,
ZH: 往往会演变成震荡区间
21:02 - 21:05
EN: and there are signs that the process might be beginning.
ZH: 而且能够找到市场周期变化的信号
21:05 - 21:10
EN: For example, if the breakout just lasts 1 bar
ZH: 例如，如果突破只持续了一根K线就反弹
21:09 - 21:10
EN: and then we’re starting to get a bounce,
ZH: 例如，如果突破只持续了一根K线就反弹
21:10 - 21:14
EN: it might be weakening and might soon evolve into a Trading Range
ZH: 说明趋势可能变弱了，即将进入震荡区间
21:14 - 21:18
EN: if limit order bulls buying at that low and scaling in lower can make money.
ZH: 限价单多头在那个低点挂单买入，并逢低加仓， 如果这样做能赚钱——
21:18 - 21:21
EN: Does this pullback go above the breakout point?
ZH: 反弹有没有超过突破点？
21:21 - 21:24
EN: That’s another sign that it might be evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是通道变成震荡区间的另一个信号
21:25 - 21:28
EN: A brief breakout – again, brief breakout and another reversal.
ZH: 这里的突破又很短暂，很快就反弹了
21:28 - 21:33
EN: So these are all signs that the market might be evolving
ZH: 这些都是市场可能正在从通道演变成震荡区间的信号
21:31 - 21:33
EN: from a channel into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这些都是市场可能正在从通道演变成震荡区间的信号
21:38 - 21:43
EN: The bears are starting to see bars with fairly conspicuous tails on the bottom,
ZH: 空头发现，K线的底部开始出现明显的下影线
21:43 - 21:46
EN: and that means at the end of the bar, traders are buying.
ZH: 这代表临近收盘的时候，有更多交易者在买入
21:46 - 21:49
EN: That makes it likely that the bears are getting weaker
ZH: 很可能空头的力量正在衰弱
21:49 - 21:51
EN: and the bulls are getting stronger,
ZH: 而多头越来越强壮
21:51 - 21:54
EN: and the market might be evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 导致市场即将进入震荡区间
21:58 - 22:05
EN: Also, you look at the follow-through – you get a series of bear bars
ZH: 还有，观察跟随——之前是一连串阴线， 但现在阴线后面的跟随变成了阳线
22:02 - 22:05
EN: and you start getting bull bars after the bear bars.
ZH: 还有，观察跟随——之前是一连串阴线， 但现在阴线后面的跟随变成了阳线
22:05 - 22:07
EN: Here you get a bear bar and then a bull bar reversing it.
ZH: 阴线，很快被阳线反转
22:07 - 22:09
EN: A bear bar and then another reversal.
ZH: 阴线，然后又被反转
22:09 - 22:11
EN: A bear bar and then a doji and a bull bar.
ZH: 阴线，然后是十字星和阳线
22:11 - 22:13
EN: A bear bar and another reversal.
ZH: 阴线，又被反转
22:13 - 22:17
EN: Traders are starting to buy after the close of strong bear bars.
ZH: 在强势阴线收盘后，更多交易者在买入
22:17 - 22:21
EN: Instead of selling and getting consecutive bear bars, they’re starting to buy.
ZH: 没有继续抛售、制造连续的阴线， 现在交易者开始买入
22:21 - 22:25
EN: That means traders are buying low, and that’s one of the signs of a Trading Range.
ZH: 交易者在逢低买入，这是进入震荡区间的信号
22:25 - 22:26
EN: Buy low.
ZH: 逢低买
22:29 - 22:31
EN: Bear bars, not particularly big.
ZH: 阴线，没有特别大
22:31 - 22:38
EN: So instead of a series of big bear bars – we were getting bigger bear bars here,
ZH: 不像趋势刚开始的时候，在突破阶段， 有连续的大阴线，越来越大
22:35 - 22:38
EN: earlier in the trend during the breakout phase
ZH: 不像趋势刚开始的时候，在突破阶段， 有连续的大阴线，越来越大
22:39 - 22:43
EN: - now we’re getting a series of bear bars, but they’re not quite as big.
ZH: 现在尽管也是连续的阴线，但体积没那么大
22:43 - 22:45
EN: Also, they’re shrinking.
ZH: 而且一根比一根小
22:45 - 22:46
EN: Look at this body.
ZH: 看它们的实体部分
22:46 - 22:49
EN: A little bit smaller, a little bit smaller, and now even a bull body.
ZH: 越来越小，越来越小，然后干脆变成阳线了
22:50 - 22:53
EN: Lack of momentum as the market’s getting lower.
ZH: 下跌的动能越来越小了
22:53 - 22:56
EN: Lack of interest in selling as the market’s going lower.
ZH: 在这么低的价格，交易者不再愿意卖出
23:01 - 23:03
EN: Lack of consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 没有连续的大阴线
23:03 - 23:04
EN: Big bear bar and then a doji bar.
ZH: 大阴线，然后十字星
23:04 - 23:09
EN: Big bear bar and then a doji bar instead of a big bear bar and then a bear bar.
ZH: 大阴线后面的跟随是十字星，而不是又一根阴线
Slide 011
Time: 23:15
Bilingual Transcript
23:17 - 23:21
EN: All through here, it’s still a strong bear trend,
ZH: 在这里，仍然是一个强下降趋势
23:21 - 23:24
EN: and you can sell the same setups that you would during a breakout.
ZH: 你可以像交易突破一样，去卖出做空
23:24 - 23:28
EN: You can sell at the market, you can sell bear closes, you can sell bull closes.
ZH: 可以市价卖出，可以在阴线收盘卖出，可以在阳线的收盘卖出
23:28 - 23:30
EN: The odds are high that we’re going lower.
ZH: 继续下跌的概率很高
23:30 - 23:34
EN: However, as it begins to weaken and becomes more two-sided,
ZH: 然而，当趋势开始变弱，当多头也能赚钱的时候，
23:34 - 23:39
EN: traders start to sell only rallies instead of at the market, even at new lows.
ZH: 交易者开始等反弹再卖出，而不是市价卖出， 更不会在创新低时追空
23:42 - 23:47
EN: So what’s the big difference between a very strong bear trend and a breakout?
ZH: 那么，通道和突破之间最重要的区别是什么？
23:53 - 23:58
EN: In a breakout traders will sell at prior lows, betting that we’re going lower.
ZH: 在突破时，交易者会在跌破前一个低点的时候卖出， 押注价格还会更低
24:04 - 24:08
EN: In a channel they start to buy at prior lows to take profits
ZH: 而在通道里，创新低的时候，他们会买入止盈
24:08 - 24:11
EN: and then sell rallies around the midpoint of the prior bear leg.
ZH: 然后当价格反弹到一半左右的时候再次卖出
24:13 - 24:18
EN: So once a trend starts to weaken, instead of just selling at new lows
ZH: 一旦趋势开始变弱，空头就不会在创新低的时候追空，
24:18 - 24:21
EN: or at any time, traders prefer only to sell pullbacks.
ZH: 不像突破时会在任何时间卖出， 现在他们只愿意在反弹的时候卖出
24:28 - 24:33
EN: Instead of selling as the market’s going down
ZH: 不会在创新低的时候追空，而是等待反弹
24:30 - 24:33
EN: and breaking out to a new low, it’s bouncing.
ZH: 不会在创新低的时候追空，而是等待反弹
24:33 - 24:37
EN: So traders are starting to take partial profits at new lows.
ZH: 他们开始在创新低的时候止盈
24:42 - 24:44
EN: When the range is fairly big,
ZH: 如果区间很大，
24:44 - 24:47
EN: the bears don’t necessarily take profits at the prior low.
ZH: 空头不一定正好在前期低点止盈
24:47 - 24:51
EN: They might take profits 1, 2, or 3 points below the prior low.
ZH: 而是会把止盈买单挂在前期低点下方1、2、3个点
24:51 - 24:54
EN: However, the bears are still buying at the low,
ZH: 但总的来说，空头在前期低点附近买入
24:54 - 24:59
EN: and the result is you get a rally that goes above the prior low.
ZH: 于是造成反弹超过突破点
24:59 - 25:01
EN: The bears do not want to sell down here.
ZH: 空头不愿意在这么低的价格卖出
25:01 - 25:02
EN: They want to take profits here.
ZH: 他们想在这里止盈
25:02 - 25:06
EN: The bears want to sell higher, so there’s nobody to sell here.
ZH: 空头想在更高的价格卖出，所以这里没有人愿意卖出
25:06 - 25:09
EN: The bears are buying, the bulls are buying, and the result is a rally.
ZH: 空头买入止盈，多头买入开仓，结果就形成了反弹
25:10 - 25:12
EN: It’s still a bear trend,
ZH: 它仍然是下降趋势
25:12 - 25:15
EN: and therefore the bulls are unwilling to hold onto longs.
ZH: 因此多头不愿意长期持有多头仓位
25:15 - 25:16
EN: They’re buying and scalping.
ZH: 他们赚了就跑
25:16 - 25:20
EN: They’re buying down here, scaling in lower, and taking profits up here.
ZH: 他们在这里挂单买入，逢低加仓，反弹回来的时候止盈
25:20 - 25:24
EN: And the bears are selling somewhere in the middle of the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 而空头在50%反弹附近卖出做空
25:24 - 25:27
EN: So down here, bulls and bears are buying,
ZH: 跌下来的时候，多头和空头都在买入
25:27 - 25:31
EN: and then up here, both bulls and bears are selling.
ZH: 涨到这里，多头和空头都在卖出
25:31 - 25:35
EN: The bulls are selling out of longs and the bears are selling back into shorts.
ZH: 反弹的时候，多头卖出止盈；空头重新入场
25:35 - 25:40
EN: Down here, bears are buying out of their shorts to take profits,
ZH: 跌下来，空头买入回补、止盈
25:40 - 25:42
EN: and the bulls are starting to buy for a scalp up.
ZH: 多头开始买入做剥头皮交易
25:43 - 25:48
EN: That’s a sign that a channel is transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是通道正在过渡到震荡区间的信号
Slide 012
Time: 25:50
Bilingual Transcript
25:57 - 26:02
EN: Earlier on, when the channel is very tight, any bull buying at the prior low
ZH: 趋势的早期，通道非常窄，
26:02 - 26:05
EN: with a limit order is failing to make money.
ZH: 用限价单逢低做多的多头完全赚不到钱
26:05 - 26:08
EN: That’s a sign of a fairly strong bear trend.
ZH: 那是下降趋势很强的信号
26:08 - 26:13
EN: If bull scalpers cannot make money buying at prior lows and scaling in lower,
ZH: 剥头皮交易者在前一个低点挂单买入，并逢低加仓， 如果他们这样做赚不到钱
26:13 - 26:17
EN: that means the market is very strongly bearish and probably going lower.
ZH: 说明市场处于很强的下降趋势，还会继续下跌
26:18 - 26:22
EN: When the channel is very tight like this, most bulls will not buy.
ZH: 看到这么窄的下降通道，大部分多头都不会买入
26:22 - 26:26
EN: Most of these little pullbacks are caused by bears taking partial profits.
ZH: 这些小反弹主要是由空头止盈部分仓位所造成的
Slide 013
Time: 26:30
Bilingual Transcript
26:32 - 26:34
EN: I wanted to make the very important point in this video
ZH: 这节课我讲了一个非常重要的内容——
26:34 - 26:39
EN: that whenever the market is in a Tight Bear Channel, reversals are minor.
ZH: 如果市场处于窄下降通道，那么上涨都只是小反转
26:39 - 26:43
EN: That means they become bear flags or maybe small Trading Ranges,
ZH: 它们变成熊旗，或者小的震荡区间
26:43 - 26:46
EN: and the odds are high that the bear trend will continue.
ZH: 然后趋势继续下跌的概率非常高
26:50 - 26:51
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
26:51 - 26:54
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
26:54 - 26:57
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易窄下降通道的第2节课，就先讲到这里