al-brooks-course
30D - Trader’s Equation and Probability
Raw transcript and slide notes for 30D - Trader’s Equation and Probability.
Overview
- Slides: 22
- Transcript segments: 389
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我说阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:11
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and probability.
ZH: 这是数学期望和概率的第4节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:15 - 00:19
EN: I want to start by talking about the importance of a 50% pullback.
ZH: 首先我想从50%%回调的重要性开始讲
00:19 - 00:25
EN: Also, the math for a trade can improve after there is a breakout.
ZH: 另外，突破之后，交易数学期望会有提升
Slide 002
Time: 00:27
Bilingual Transcript
00:31 - 00:35
EN: We have a bull trend, a decent breakout, and then a pullback.
ZH: 上涨趋势，不错的突破，然后回调
00:36 - 00:41
EN: Because there’s a strong bull trend, if there’s a 50% pullback
ZH: 因为这是强上涨趋势，如果有50%回调——
00:42 - 00:45
EN: - there’s the low of the bull trend, there’s the high of the bull trend,
ZH: 这是上涨趋势的起点，这是趋势的最高点
00:45 - 00:54
EN: here’s a 50% pullback – there’s a 60% chance of at least testing the high
ZH: 50%的回调在这里，如果在这里买入， 60%的概率在打到止损之前，至少会先测试前期高点
00:49 - 00:54
EN: before hitting a stop if a person were to buy that 50% pullback.
ZH: 60%的概率在打到止损之前，至少会先测试前期高点
00:55 - 00:58
EN: A bull trend means it’s more likely that the market will continue higher.
ZH: 上涨趋势的意思就是更有可能继续上涨
00:58 - 01:03
EN: Obviously if it reverses all the way to just above the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: 显然，如果反转、一路下跌，跌回上涨趋势的起涨点，
01:03 - 01:06
EN: the probability that it will get back to the top is small.
ZH: 那么涨回到前期高点的概率很小
01:06 - 01:09
EN: But as long as it’s pulling back to about 50%,
ZH: 但只要回调幅度是50%左右
01:09 - 01:13
EN: there’s a 60% chance that it will get here, to the top of the bull trend,
ZH: 那么有60%的概率，会至少涨回到前期的高点
01:13 - 01:16
EN: before it gets here, to the bottom of the bull trend
ZH: 而不是先跌回上涨趋势的起涨点，
01:16 - 01:19
EN: or just a little bit below, and hit a protective stop.
ZH: 或者略微跌破起涨点，打掉止损
01:23 - 01:27
EN: Many bulls will place a limit order to buy a 50% pullback.
ZH: 很多多头会在50%的地方挂限价买单
01:27 - 01:29
EN: Most would not get filled here.
ZH: 大多数订单不会在这里成交
01:29 - 01:32
EN: It usually has to fall below the limit order to get filled,
ZH: 通常需要跌破1个tick， 才能保证所有的限价买单成交
01:32 - 01:34
EN: and they would get filled on this bear bar.
ZH: 所以订单会在这根阴线上成交
01:35 - 01:39
EN: Other bulls prefer to buy on a reversal up from a 50% pullback.
ZH: 一些多头更喜欢在50%回调之后，反转上涨的时候买入
01:39 - 01:43
EN: Here, we have about an 8 bar bear Micro Channel.
ZH: 这里，大约是8根K线的下降微通道
01:43 - 01:45
EN: A lot of bulls would wait for a second entry buy,
ZH: 很多多头会等待第2做多入场点
01:45 - 01:47
EN: and here they have a bull body.
ZH: 并且这里有一根阳线
01:47 - 01:49
EN: They would buy on the reversal up above that bull body.
ZH: 他们会在这个阳线上方买入做多
01:49 - 01:52
EN: A Micro Double Bottom, a second entry.
ZH: 小双底，第2入场点
01:52 - 01:53
EN: Here’s the first entry there.
ZH: 第1入场点在这里
01:55 - 01:59
EN: These buys have a 60% chance of leading to a rally up
ZH: 在这些地方买入，有60%的概率会先涨到这里，
01:59 - 02:06
EN: to here before a selloff down to here because
ZH: 而不是先跌到这里，因为下跌之前的大背景是上涨趋势
02:02 - 02:06
EN: what preceded this selloff was a bull trend.
ZH: 而不是先跌到这里，因为下跌之前的大背景是上涨趋势
02:10 - 02:15
EN: Buying here, it’s halfway to the target and halfway to the stop.
ZH: 在这里买入，正好在止损和止盈的当中
02:15 - 02:20
EN: It’s a little bit further to the stop because the stop is just
ZH: 止损略微远一点点，因为止损刚好在起涨点的下方
02:18 - 02:20
EN: below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 止损略微远一点点，因为止损刚好在起涨点的下方
02:20 - 02:25
EN: The reward up to the high is equal to the risk down to the stop,
ZH: 上方的潜在利润，正好几乎等于止损距离，
02:25 - 02:28
EN: maybe a little bit more to the stop.
ZH: 止损距离略大一点点
02:28 - 02:35
EN: Strong momentum up, so the probability is that the market’s
ZH: 上涨的动能很强，所以大概率在跌到这里之前， 会先上涨到这里
02:32 - 02:35
EN: going to go up here before it’ll come down here.
ZH: 上涨的动能很强，所以大概率在跌到这里之前， 会先上涨到这里
02:36 - 02:39
EN: And because of that, bulls buy at a 50% pullback.
ZH: 因此，多头会在50%回调买入
02:40 - 02:45
EN: The reward is equal to the risk, but the probability is 60% or higher.
ZH: 利润等于风险，但胜率有60%甚至更高
02:46 - 02:51
EN: That is the basis for traders buying 50% pullbacks from strong trends.
ZH: 这就是交易者在强上涨趋势50%回调买入的基础
Slide 003
Time: 02:55
Bilingual Transcript
02:56 - 02:59
EN: The bulls got a breakout and there’s a Double Top.
ZH: 多头突破，但是和前期高点形成双顶
02:59 - 03:02
EN: It broke below the neckline of the Double Top in a very strong selloff.
ZH: 强势的反转下跌，跌破了双顶的颈线
03:02 - 03:05
EN: 5 consecutive bear bars, this one being very big,
ZH: 连续5根阴线，尤其它的体积非常大
03:05 - 03:09
EN: closing far below the low of the past 50 or 60 bars.
ZH: 收盘远低于过去50或60根K线的最低点
03:10 - 03:13
EN: The odds are traders will sell a 50% pullback.
ZH: 很多空头会在50%反弹的地方做空
03:16 - 03:19
EN: Bears who are short for any reason – selling down here,
ZH: 空头会出于各种原因做空——在这里卖出
03:19 - 03:21
EN: selling a 50% pullback – it doesn’t matter.
ZH: 50%反弹卖出——都可以
03:21 - 03:24
EN: Their stop is above the top of the bear trend, up here.
ZH: 他们的止损在下降趋势的起跌点上方，在这里
03:25 - 03:28
EN: The minimum target for the bears, whether they sell the close,
ZH: 空头的最低目标——无论是在它的收盘卖出，
03:28 - 03:34
EN: sell the 50% pullback, or sell below the reversal bar down and get filled here,
ZH: 还是直接在50%挂单，还是在反转K线下方卖出， 在这里成交
03:34 - 03:37
EN: is down here, a new low in the bear trend.
ZH: 最低目标都是这里——下降趋势创新低
03:37 - 03:42
EN: The risk to the stop is about the same as the reward to the target,
ZH: 到止损位的风险，和到新低目标位的利润大致相等
03:42 - 03:46
EN: the new low – yet because the selloff was so strong,
ZH: 然而因为下跌非常强势，
03:46 - 03:52
EN: there’s probably a 60% chance that the market
ZH: 所以有60%的概率，市场会先跌到这里， 而不是先涨到上面
03:49 - 03:52
EN: is going to fall here before it’s going to go there.
ZH: 所以有60%的概率，市场会先跌到这里， 而不是先涨到上面
03:52 - 03:58
EN: Risk is equal to reward, but probability is maybe 60%.
ZH: 风险等于利润，但胜率至少是60%
03:58 - 04:01
EN: Therefore, selling a 50% pullback in a strong bear trend
ZH: 因此，在强下降趋势的50%反弹做空
04:01 - 04:06
EN: is a very good thing to do, a very good Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 是一个很好的做法，因为数学期望很好
04:09 - 04:13
EN: Often when you get a 50% pullback, the momentum up is so strong
ZH: 很多时候，当你看到反弹了50%，上涨动能非常强
04:13 - 04:17
EN: that you think that the market is reversing into a bull trend.
ZH: 以至于你认为市场正在反转成为上涨趋势
04:18 - 04:22
EN: However, as long as it does not get much above that 50% pullback,
ZH: 然而，只要它没有超出50%太多
04:22 - 04:27
EN: chances are this is a bull trap, trapping inexperienced bulls
ZH: 就有可能是一个多头陷阱，会把做多的新手都套牢，
04:27 - 04:32
EN: into buying too high when the market is still
ZH: 诱骗他们在下降趋势反弹的时候买在高位
04:30 - 04:32
EN: in a bear trend and this is simply a pullback.
ZH: 诱骗他们在下降趋势反弹的时候买在高位
04:32 - 04:34
EN: Two legs up, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2
04:34 - 04:37
EN: Look at the bad follow-through after the strong bull bar
ZH: 大阳线之后的跟随很糟糕
04:37 - 04:39
EN: and the tail on the top of the bull bar.
ZH: 而且上影线很长
04:39 - 04:43
EN: This is simply a test of this breakout point and a test of the 50% pullback.
ZH: 这只是对这个突破点和50%的测试
04:44 - 04:48
EN: Chances are the market’s going lower, even though there’s a strong bull bar.
ZH: 尽管有一根强势的大阳线，市场仍然大概率会下跌
04:52 - 04:57
EN: Bears who short here, the distance to their target (their reward)
ZH: 在这里做空的空头，到目标的距离（利润）
04:57 - 05:00
EN: is the same as the distance to their stop (their risk).
ZH: 和到止损的距离（风险）相等
05:00 - 05:05
EN: But the probability of making their reward is maybe 60%.
ZH: 但赚到这些利润的概率至少是60%
05:06 - 05:15
EN: Even though the risk is equal to the reward, the probability makes this
ZH: 即使风险等于利润，但因为胜率高， 所以这仍然是一笔不错的交易，数学期望很不错
05:10 - 05:15
EN: a very favorable trade, a very positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 即使风险等于利润，但因为胜率高， 所以这仍然是一笔不错的交易，数学期望很不错
Slide 004
Time: 05:17
Bilingual Transcript
05:20 - 05:25
EN: We have a strong selloff, maybe about a 10 or 15 bar bear Micro Channel.
ZH: 强势的抛售，连续下跌了10~15根K线的下降微通道
05:25 - 05:28
EN: No bull bars in about 10 or 15 bars.
ZH: 连续下跌10~15根K线，没有阳线
05:28 - 05:31
EN: Traders will sell a 50% pullback.
ZH: 空头会在50%反弹卖出做空
05:31 - 05:34
EN: Some will place a limit order at 50%.
ZH: 有些人会在50%挂限价卖单
05:34 - 05:37
EN: This is 50%; they’ll sell with a limit order.
ZH: 50%在这里，他们会挂限价卖单做空
05:37 - 05:39
EN: Others will sell on a reversal down.
ZH: 其他人会在反转下跌时卖出
05:40 - 05:44
EN: When you have a strong bear trend and a pullback to about 50%,
ZH: 当你看到一个强下降趋势，反弹到大约50%的时候
05:45 - 05:48
EN: there’s a 60% chance the market is going to test the bear low
ZH: 市场有60%的概率会测试下降趋势的低点
05:48 - 05:52
EN: before there’s a rally up to the top of the bear trend.
ZH: 而不是先涨回到趋势的起跌点
05:52 - 05:57
EN: In this particular case, the stop is 1 tick above the top of the bear leg,
ZH: 空头的止损放在下跌波段起跌点上方1个tick （注：ES中，1 tick = 0.25 点）
05:57 - 06:04
EN: and that’s 4.75 points above, and the reward is 4.5 points below.
ZH: 所以止损距离是4.75个点，止盈距离是4.5点
06:05 - 06:07
EN: This is a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 数学期望为正
06:07 - 06:10
EN: Reward equal to risk – actually, the risk is 1 tick bigger
ZH: 利润等于风险——实际上，风险大了1 tick
06:10 - 06:13
EN: because your stop is 1 tick above the top of the bear leg
ZH: 因为你的止损是放在起跌点上方1个tick
06:13 - 06:16
EN: - and the probability is 60%.
ZH: 而胜率是60%
06:17 - 06:20
EN: Stop above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 止损在起跌点的上方
06:21 - 06:25
EN: Some traders will simply place a limit order to sell a 50% pullback
ZH: 一些空头会直接在50%的地方挂限价卖单
06:25 - 06:27
EN: and put a stop above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 然后把止损放在起跌点上方
06:27 - 06:31
EN: Others will sell a reversal down or a second entry short,
ZH: 一些空头会在反转下跌时、或第2做空入场点卖出，
06:31 - 06:35
EN: or a third or fourth entry short, looking for a test of the bear low.
ZH: 或者在第3、第4做空入场点卖出， 预期市场测试前期低点
06:39 - 06:44
EN: Since the probability is 60% that the market will get here before it gets here
ZH: 由于60%的概率市场会先下跌而不是上涨
06:44 - 06:54
EN: - since it’s a bear trend, there’s a 60% chance of making 10 ticks
ZH: ——因为大背景是下降趋势—— 所以60%的概率， 交易者可以赚10，20，30个ticks， 而不是亏10，20，30个ticks
06:49 - 06:54
EN: before losing 10 ticks, 20 ticks or 30 ticks before losing 20 or 30 ticks,
ZH: 交易者可以赚10，20，30个ticks， 而不是亏10，20，30个ticks
06:54 - 06:57
EN: and a move down to the bear low before moving
ZH: 市场会先下跌测试前期低点，
06:57 - 07:00
EN: the same distance up to the bear high.
ZH: 而不是先涨回到趋势的起跌点
07:00 - 07:02
EN: The Trader’s Equation is positive.
ZH: 数学期望为正
Slide 005
Time: 07:05
Bilingual Transcript
07:07 - 07:13
EN: In general when you have a high probability trade, the risk/reward ratio is bad.
ZH: 通常，如果一笔交易的胜率很高，盈亏比就比较差
07:13 - 07:17
EN: In other words, the risk/reward ratio is maybe 1:1.
ZH: 换句话说，盈亏比可能是1:1
07:17 - 07:21
EN: That means that the reward is usually not bigger
ZH: 也就是说，利润不会比风险大多少
07:19 - 07:21
EN: than the risk or not much bigger than the risk.
ZH: 也就是说，利润不会比风险大多少
07:21 - 07:27
EN: It usually means either a big risk or a small reward, or both,
ZH: 通常这意味着风险很大，或者利润很小，或者两者兼有
07:27 - 07:30
EN: or reward equal to risk, not much bigger than risk.
ZH: 或利润等于风险，不会比风险大很多
07:34 - 07:38
EN: Even if you sell this for a scalp, you have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 即使你在这里做空，做剥头皮交易， 数学期望也是正的
07:38 - 07:41
EN: Let’s say you’re looking to scalp for 1 or 2 points
ZH: 假设你打算剥头皮，赚1或2个点
07:41 - 07:43
EN: and use a stop of 1 or 2 points.
ZH: 止损也设置为1或2个点
07:43 - 07:48
EN: Chances are if you enter at a 50% pullback, any number of ticks down
ZH: 如果你在50%反弹时入场，下跌任何距离——
07:48 - 07:53
EN: - let’s say 7 ticks down, you’ll get there before it goes 7 ticks up.
ZH: 假设是7 ticks， 会先下跌7 ticks，而不是先上涨7 ticks
07:53 - 07:55
EN: 15 ticks down before it goes 15 ticks up.
ZH: 或者会先下跌15 ticks，而不是先上涨15 ticks
07:57 - 08:00
EN: In general it’s better to take this as a swing trade,
ZH: 通常来说，最好做波段交易
08:00 - 08:04
EN: looking for a test of this low and putting your stop up here.
ZH: 预期会测试这个低点，然后把止损放在这里
08:04 - 08:08
EN: That is the most reasonable stop, the top of the bear trend.
ZH: 这是最合理的止损，下降趋势的起跌点
Slide 006
Time: 08:10
Bilingual Transcript
08:12 - 08:15
EN: This is the Euro versus the Dollar, a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟图
08:17 - 08:18
EN: and there’s a strong reversal.
ZH: 强势反转上涨
08:18 - 08:21
EN: Strong bull breakout, 3 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，连续3根阳线
08:21 - 08:27
EN: A lot of traders will place a limit order
ZH: 很多交易者会在50%回调的地方挂限价买单做多
08:23 - 08:27
EN: to buy at a 50% pullback or on a reversal up.
ZH: 很多交易者会在50%回调的地方挂限价买单做多
08:28 - 08:32
EN: Because the trend is strong, if you buy a 50% pullback,
ZH: 因为趋势足够强，所以如果在50%回调买入，
08:32 - 08:36
EN: there’s a 60% chance that the market will get to the top of the bull trend
ZH: 60%的概率会先涨回到前期高点
08:36 - 08:43
EN: and test the bull high before it falls below the bottom
ZH: 而不是先跌到趋势的起涨点、把下方的打掉
08:40 - 08:43
EN: of the bull trend and hits the stop just below that low.
ZH: 而不是先跌到趋势的起涨点、把下方的打掉
08:44 - 08:50
EN: In this particular case, it’s 32 pips to this high and 32 pips to that low.
ZH: 在这个案例中，到前期高点的距离是32 pips， 到那个低点的距离也是32 pips
08:50 - 08:52
EN: The stop is 1 pip below.
ZH: 止损在下方1个pip
08:52 - 08:58
EN: There’s a 60% chance, approximately, of reaching that high and making 32 pips
ZH: 大约有60%的概率，涨到那个高点，赚32 pips
08:58 - 09:02
EN: before it hits the stop below this low, 33 pips below.
ZH: 而不是跌破这个止损，亏33 pips
09:03 - 09:07
EN: Even though the reward is equal to the risk and is not twice the risk,
ZH: 即使利润等于一倍风险，而不是两倍，
09:08 - 09:12
EN: the 60% probability of success makes the Trader’s Equation positive,
ZH: 60%的胜率使得数学期望为正
09:12 - 09:15
EN: and therefore mathematically it’s a good trade.
ZH: 因此从数学上讲，这是一笔好的交易
09:17 - 09:19
EN: The stop is just below the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 止损在上涨波段的起涨点下方
09:21 - 09:27
EN: Bulls will either buy with a limit order
ZH: 多头会在50%的地方挂限价买单， 或者在反转上涨时买入
09:24 - 09:27
EN: at a 50% pullback or on the reversal up.
ZH: 多头会在50%的地方挂限价买单， 或者在反转上涨时买入
09:28 - 09:31
EN: Very often when you get a 50% pullback in a reasonably strong bull trend,
ZH: 很多时候，当你看到一个强上涨趋势有50%回调，
09:31 - 09:37
EN: the selloff is so strong, it looks like the bull trend
ZH: 下跌看上去也非常强，似乎上涨趋势失败了，正在被反转
09:35 - 09:37
EN: is failing and it’s reversing.
ZH: 下跌看上去也非常强，似乎上涨趋势失败了，正在被反转
09:37 - 09:41
EN: However, the odds are that if you take the 50% buy,
ZH: 然而，如果你在50%回调买入，
09:41 - 09:45
EN: you’re going to make money – even if the reversal down is strong.
ZH: 就算反转的下跌很强，你大概率还是可以赚钱
09:48 - 09:54
EN: Reasonably strong bull reversal, 60% probability
ZH: 强上涨趋势，60%的概率你可以赚32 pips
09:53 - 09:57
EN: that you make 32 pips before your stop is hit 33 pips below.
ZH: 强上涨趋势，60%的概率你可以赚32 pips 而不是止损被打掉，亏33 pips
09:59 - 10:02
EN: In fact, you could make much more than 32 pips.
ZH: 实际上，你的利润可以远超32 pips
10:02 - 10:07
EN: In this particular case, a trader would have made much more
ZH: 在这个案例中，你的利润可以远超33 pips的风险
10:05 - 10:07
EN: before losing 32 pips.
ZH: 在这个案例中，你的利润可以远超33 pips的风险
10:07 - 10:10
EN: Therefore, the reward is much better than simply 1:1.
ZH: 因此，盈亏比远远不止1:1
10:10 - 10:14
EN: Swing bulls will buy this 50% pullback, put a stop down here,
ZH: 做波段交易的多头会在50%回调买入，然后把止损放在这里
10:14 - 10:17
EN: and they’ll just hold until their premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 并会一直持有，直到上涨趋势的前提不再有效
10:17 - 10:20
EN: Maybe they’ll get out here, maybe they’ll get out here.
ZH: 也许他们会在这里离场，也许会在这里离场
10:20 - 10:25
EN: And if they do, their reward is much bigger than their risk.
ZH: 如果这样做的话，利润远大于风险
10:25 - 10:28
EN: That’s an even stronger Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 那么数学期望就更好了
Slide 007
Time: 10:30
Bilingual Transcript
10:34 - 10:35
EN: Here we have a bull leg.
ZH: 这个上涨波段
10:35 - 10:41
EN: It’s 52 pips tall, and we have a pullback that’s 28 pips down from the high.
ZH: 总共的高度是52 pips，从高点回调了28 pips
10:41 - 10:45
EN: Strong enough bull breakout, probably we’ll test that high.
ZH: 多头突破足够强势，所以大概率会测试那个高点
10:46 - 10:56
EN: Buying with a limit order at a 50% pullback, a trader has a 60% chance
ZH: 在50%回调挂限价单买入， 60%的概率测试前期高点，可以赚26 pips
10:51 - 10:56
EN: of testing the high, making 26 pips, before the market goes down
ZH: 在50%回调挂限价单买入， 60%的概率测试前期高点，可以赚26 pips
10:56 - 11:00
EN: and hits the stop 1 pip below the low (27 pips).
ZH: 而不是下跌打掉止损，亏27 pips
11:01 - 11:09
EN: Therefore, a bull buying here has a 60% chance
ZH: 所以在这里买入的多头有60%的概率赚26 pips， 而不是亏27 pips
11:04 - 11:09
EN: of making 26 pips before losing 27 pips.
ZH: 所以在这里买入的多头有60%的概率赚26 pips， 而不是亏27 pips
11:09 - 11:12
EN: That is a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 数学期望大于0
11:12 - 11:15
EN: and therefore mathematically it makes sense to take the trade.
ZH: 因此，从数学上讲，这笔交易是合理的
11:17 - 11:19
EN: Stop is below the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 止损在上涨波段的起跌点下方
11:20 - 11:23
EN: Some traders place the limit order to buy at 50%.
ZH: 一些多头在50%的地方挂限价单买入
11:23 - 11:26
EN: Other traders buy a reversal up.
ZH: 一些多头会在反转上涨时买入
11:26 - 11:30
EN: Here we have a High 2 buy – High 1 and then a second entry, High 2.
ZH: 这里有高2买点——高1，然后是第2入场点，即高2
11:34 - 11:38
EN: Whenever you have a 60% probability, you have a high probability trade.
ZH: 如果一笔交易的胜率达到60%，就是一笔高胜率的交易
11:38 - 11:41
EN: That means that you have bad risk/reward.
ZH: 这意味着盈亏比不会很好
11:41 - 11:48
EN: Bad risk/reward means that you have a reward
ZH: 盈亏比不好的意思是，相对于风险而言利润比较小， 或者风险很大
11:45 - 11:48
EN: that’s small relative to the risk or a big risk.
ZH: 盈亏比不好的意思是，相对于风险而言利润比较小， 或者风险很大
11:49 - 11:53
EN: In general, any time the reward is less than two times the risk,
ZH: 通常，只要利润小于两倍风险
11:53 - 11:55
EN: I call it a bad risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 我就认为这个盈亏比不好
11:55 - 11:59
EN: But I often take trades where the risk/reward ratio is 1:1,
ZH: 但是，我经常做盈亏比1:1的交易，
11:59 - 12:03
EN: the reward equals the risk, if the probability is 60% or higher.
ZH: 利润等于风险，前提是我判断胜率至少有60%
12:08 - 12:10
EN: Even a scalp has a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 这里即使做剥头皮交易，数学期望也是正的
12:10 - 12:14
EN: For example, if you buy this and place a stop 10 pips down,
ZH: 例如，如果在这里买入，止损放在下方10 pips
12:14 - 12:19
EN: looking to take a 10 pips profit, chances are 60% that you’ll make money.
ZH: 同时止盈目标也是10 pips， 那么60%的概率你可以赚钱
12:19 - 12:26
EN: What about buying this and putting a stop 13 pips down,
ZH: 那么止损13 pips，目标13 pips可以吗？ 因为市场出于上涨趋势
12:22 - 12:26
EN: looking to make 13 pips? We’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 那么止损13 pips，目标13 pips可以吗？ 因为市场出于上涨趋势
12:26 - 12:29
EN: Chances are you’ll make a reward equal to your risk as long
ZH: 所以只要你的止损不超过上涨趋势的起涨点，
12:29 - 12:33
EN: as your risk is no more than this stop below the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 你就更有可能赚钱，而不是亏钱
12:34 - 12:40
EN: It doesn’t matter if it’s 5 pips, 10 pips,
ZH: 不管是5，10，还是15个pips的利润和风险
12:36 - 12:40
EN: 15 pips for the risk and 5, 10, or 15 pips for the reward.
ZH: 不管是5，10，还是15个pips的利润和风险
12:40 - 12:44
EN: 60% chance you’ll make your reward before your stop is hit.
ZH: 60%的概率你可以赚钱，而不是被止损亏钱
Slide 008
Time: 12:50
Bilingual Transcript
12:50 - 12:52
EN: Many traders like to enter early
ZH: 很多交易者都想要尽早入场，
12:52 - 12:56
EN: because the risk is less and the reward is greater.
ZH: 因为风险更小，潜在利润更大
12:56 - 12:59
EN: Other traders prefer to enter after a strong breakout,
ZH: 也有交易者更喜欢在强势突破之后再入场
12:59 - 13:01
EN: when the probability is higher.
ZH: 因为此时的胜率更高
13:01 - 13:05
EN: The math can actually be better after a strong breakout.
ZH: 实际上，强势突破后的数学期望会更好
Slide 009
Time: 13:06
Bilingual Transcript
13:13 - 13:16
EN: Here we have a Trading Range and the bulls are trying to get trend resumption.
ZH: 这里有一个震荡区间，多头正在尝试恢复上涨趋势
13:16 - 13:18
EN: Bull trend, Trading Range, bull breakout.
ZH: 上涨趋势，震荡区间，多头突破
13:18 - 13:25
EN: 3 bull bars here, a bull bar here closing
ZH: 这里有3根阳线，这根阳线的收盘高于过去50根K线的最高点
13:21 - 13:25
EN: above the top of the past 50 bar Trading Range.
ZH: 这里有3根阳线，这根阳线的收盘高于过去50根K线的最高点
13:25 - 13:27
EN: The context is good for trend resumption up.
ZH: 背景有利于上涨趋势的恢复
13:27 - 13:29
EN: The market’s in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 市场处于突破模式
13:29 - 13:32
EN: We have 3 bull bars here, and now we have a pretty good size bull bar.
ZH: 这里有3根阳线，现在又有了这根非常大的阳线
13:33 - 13:36
EN: 60% probability, maybe even more, that a trader buying
ZH: 如果在它的收盘买如做多，60%甚至更高的概率，
13:36 - 13:41
EN: that close will make a reward equal to or greater than the risk.
ZH: 利润是大于等于风险的
13:41 - 13:44
EN: He would put a stop either below that low or below this low,
ZH: 止损放在这个低点，或那个低点的下方
13:44 - 13:49
EN: and 60% chance he’ll make his profit before his stop gets hit.
ZH: 60%的概率可以赚钱，而不是被止损
13:52 - 13:56
EN: So, let’s say a trader buys the close of that bull breakout bar.
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这根阳线的收盘买入做多
13:58 - 14:02
EN: He can put a stop 1 tick below the bottom of the bull breakout bar.
ZH: 他可以把止损放在这根突破大阳线的低点下方1个tick
14:02 - 14:07
EN: The market usually will not fall below the bull bar if it’s going higher.
ZH: 如果市场之后会继续上涨，通常是不会跌破这根大阳线的
14:07 - 14:10
EN: Sometimes it’ll pull back below that bull bar and continue up.
ZH: 偶尔也会先跌破它，然后再上涨
14:10 - 14:12
EN: Most of the time, if it’s going higher,
ZH: 大多数情况下，如果之后继续上涨
14:12 - 14:15
EN: it will not fall below the low of that breakout bar.
ZH: 是不会跌破这根突破大阳线的最低点的
14:15 - 14:21
EN: In this particular case, if you buy that close and you put your stop below,
ZH: 在这个案例中，如果你在它的收盘买入， 并且把止损放在下方
14:21 - 14:24
EN: your stop is 8 ticks below your entry.
ZH: 你的止损距离是8 ticks
14:28 - 14:32
EN: Since you’re risking 8 ticks to below the bottom of the bull bar,
ZH: 因为你承担的风险是8 ticks
14:32 - 14:35
EN: your minimum reward should be 8 ticks above.
ZH: 你的利润目标至少应该是8 ticks
14:35 - 14:38
EN: And the breakout is strong enough so that there’s a 60% chance
ZH: 突破足够强势，因此如果你在它的收盘买入，
14:38 - 14:44
EN: if you buy that close, you’ll hit this profit target before you hit that stop.
ZH: 60%的概率你会赚到8 ticks，而不是被止损
14:44 - 14:46
EN: Therefore, the Trader’s Equation is good.
ZH: 所以数学期望是好的
14:50 - 14:54
EN: Let’s say you chose not to exit and instead looked at this as a swing trade.
ZH: 假设你选择不离场，而是决定做波段交易
Slide 010
Time: 14:50
Bilingual Transcript
14:55 - 14:57
EN: This is where you would have exited.
ZH: 你原本会在这里止盈离场
14:57 - 14:59
EN: This was your 8 ticks profit target.
ZH: 8个ticks的利润目标在这里
14:59 - 15:01
EN: But let’s say instead, you held long.
ZH: 但是假设你选择继续持有
15:02 - 15:07
EN: As the size of the breakout grows, so does the size of the target.
ZH: 随着突破继续，目标位也变得更远
15:08 - 15:12
EN: For example, let’s say you bought the close of this bar.
ZH: 例如，假设你在这根K线的收盘买入
15:12 - 15:16
EN: Now your stop is still here, but your target is a Measured Move
ZH: 你的止损仍然在这里，但你的目标是MM目标位——
15:16 - 15:20
EN: based from that close to this low, and your target is now here.
ZH: 从它的收盘到这个低点往上翻一倍， 所以现在目标位在这里
15:21 - 15:23
EN: Some bulls keep buying closes.
ZH: 一些多头会在每根K线的收盘买入（不断加仓）
15:23 - 15:30
EN: The stop is still down here, but since this is a reasonable breakout entry,
ZH: 止损仍然在这里，但由于在这个突破买入是合理的
15:31 - 15:34
EN: chances are 60% the market will go for a Measured Move up
ZH: 所以市场有60%的概率会涨到MM目标位
15:35 - 15:37
EN: before it hits the stop below the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 而不是打掉上涨趋势起涨点下方的止损
15:42 - 15:45
EN: If you buy that close, your stop is still here,
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘买入，止损仍然在这里
15:45 - 15:49
EN: but now you have a 60% chance of making a 14 tick profit.
ZH: 但现在你有60%的概率赚到14个ticks
15:49 - 15:55
EN: Your stop is now 14 ticks below that close, so 60% chance if you buy this close,
ZH: 下方的止损距离是14 ticks， 所以如果你在这里买入，60%的概率，
15:55 - 15:59
EN: you’re going to get there and make 14 ticks before it hits your stop down here.
ZH: 你可以赚到14 ticks，而不是而不是被止损亏14 ticks
16:09 - 16:13
EN: The bulls who bought this close and held, and now the market is here,
ZH: 在它的收盘买入并持有的多头，现在价格在这里
16:13 - 16:19
EN: they have a 60% chance of making 14 ticks above this close,
ZH: 他们有60%的概率可以再赚多14 ticks
16:20 - 16:24
EN: which is 20 ticks above their original close, while risking only 8 ticks.
ZH: 所以总的利润目标来到了20 ticks， 但只冒了8 ticks的风险
16:24 - 16:26
EN: They bought that close.
ZH: 他们是在这个阳线的收盘买入的
16:26 - 16:28
EN: Their stop is still 8 ticks below their entry price,
ZH: 止损距离仍然是8 ticks
16:28 - 16:33
EN: but now that we have this close, the market has a 60% chance of getting here.
ZH: 但又出现了一根大阳线，有60%的概率会涨到这里
16:33 - 16:38
EN: So these bulls have a 60% chance of making 20 ticks
ZH: 所以现在他们有60%的概率可以赚20 ticks
16:38 - 16:41
EN: before an 8 tick stop is hit.
ZH: 而不是被止损亏8 ticks
16:42 - 16:44
EN: So, excellent Trader’s Equation at this point.
ZH: 所以，这个时候的数学期望变得非常好
16:44 - 16:48
EN: The math is getting better as the breakout continues.
ZH: 随着突破的继续，数学期望变得越来越好
Slide 011
Time: 16:50
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 012
Time: 16:55
Bilingual Transcript
16:57 - 16:59
EN: We have another bar in the breakout.
ZH: 新的阳线，突破继续，
16:59 - 17:02
EN: Some bulls will buy that close, stop down here.
ZH: 一些多头会在它的收盘买入，止损还是放在这里
17:02 - 17:04
EN: The breakout is strong.
ZH: 突破很强势
17:04 - 17:07
EN: 60% chance the market will go a Measured Move up
ZH: 60%的概率会涨到MM目标位
17:07 - 17:11
EN: from this close to that stop before it gets to that stop.
ZH: 从它的收盘到止损的距离，往上翻一倍
17:13 - 17:18
EN: The stop for these bulls is 23 ticks below the low of the bull breakout,
ZH: 这些多头的止损距离是23 ticks
17:19 - 17:21
EN: and therefore they have a 60% chance of the market
ZH: 因此，他们有60%的概率可以赚23 ticks
17:21 - 17:26
EN: going 23 ticks higher before it goes 23 ticks down.
ZH: 而不是止损被打掉、亏23 ticks
17:27 - 17:29
EN: Very good Trader’s Equation for buying that close.
ZH: 所以在它的收盘买入，数学期望也是好的
17:30 - 17:34
EN: They buy that close, and their new target is 23 ticks above.
ZH: 买入之后，他们的目标在上面23 ticks的位置
17:34 - 17:39
EN: 60% chance it’ll get here before it hits their stop down here.
ZH: 有60%的概率可以达到
17:46 - 17:48
EN: What about the bulls who bought this close?
ZH: 那么之前在这里买入的多头呢？
17:48 - 17:52
EN: Well, their stop is still 8 ticks below their entry,
ZH: 他们的止损仍然在入场点下方8 ticks
17:52 - 17:55
EN: but now their target is 38 ticks above their entry,
ZH: 但新的目标在入场点上方38 ticks
17:55 - 17:58
EN: so they have a 60% chance at this point
ZH: 所以此时，他们有60%的概率
17:58 - 18:03
EN: that they’ll make 38 ticks while risking only 8 ticks.
ZH: 可以赚到38 ticks，但风险只有8 ticks
18:03 - 18:06
EN: They bought this close, and as the breakout continues,
ZH: 他们在这根阳线的收盘买入，随着突破的继续
18:07 - 18:11
EN: their reward gets much, much better, but their risk stays the same.
ZH: 他们的利润变得越来越大，但风险保持不变
18:11 - 18:13
EN: And the probability stays the same.
ZH: 胜率也保持不变
18:13 - 18:16
EN: Once we’re at this close, 60% chance Measured Move up.
ZH: 在它的收盘，有60%的概率涨到MM目标位
18:16 - 18:20
EN: Once we’re at this close, 60% chance Measured Move up.
ZH: 新的阳线，60%的概率涨到MM目标位
18:20 - 18:25
EN: The risk stays the same, the probability stays at 60%, but the reward grows.
ZH: 风险保持不变，概率也一直是60%，但利润在增长
18:26 - 18:31
EN: As the breakout continues, the math gets better and better
ZH: 随着突破的继续，在这根阳线买入的交易者， 他们的数学期望变得越来越好
18:29 - 18:31
EN: for the bulls who bought that first close.
ZH: 随着突破的继续，在这根阳线买入的交易者， 他们的数学期望变得越来越好
Slide 013
Time: 18:35
Bilingual Transcript
18:37 - 18:40
EN: The bulls who bought here, their minimum target is here,
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，他们的最低目标在这里，
18:40 - 18:43
EN: equidistant to their stop (23 ticks).
ZH: 和止损的距离相等 (23 ticks)
18:43 - 18:47
EN: They could get out right here and have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 他们可以在这里离场，因为数学期望是正的
18:47 - 18:49
EN: Reward equal to risk.
ZH: 利润等于风险
18:49 - 18:56
EN: Probability when you buy here 60% that you’ll get to your target
ZH: 60%的概率赚钱，而不是亏钱
18:54 - 18:56
EN: before the market hits your stop.
ZH: 60%的概率赚钱，而不是亏钱
18:59 - 19:02
EN: You can see the tail above the pink line.
ZH: 可以看到粉色线上面的上影线
19:02 - 19:05
EN: That means there was some profit-taking from the bulls who bought that close.
ZH: 这说明在这里买入的多头，至少止盈了一部分
19:12 - 19:17
EN: The bulls who bought this close never had more than an 8 tick risk.
ZH: 在这根阳线买入的多头，风险从来没有大于8个ticks过
19:17 - 19:20
EN: Their risk was always to just below the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 他们的风险一直在起涨点的下方
19:21 - 19:24
EN: No matter how big the breakout went, that’s where their stop was.
ZH: 无论突破变得多大，他们的止损都在那里
19:24 - 19:30
EN: Once you have a major Higher Low, a reasonably strong breakout
ZH: 直到回调、再次强势突破，形成了一个重要的低点， 他们才会把止损移动上来
19:28 - 19:30
EN: to a new high, they might raise their stop.
ZH: 直到回调、再次强势突破，形成了一个重要的低点， 他们才会把止损移动上来
19:30 - 19:34
EN: But certainly their Initial Risk was only 8 ticks,
ZH: 但他们的初始风险一直只有8 ticks
19:34 - 19:37
EN: yet their reward was way up here.
ZH: 但他们的利润一直增长到了这里
19:37 - 19:42
EN: Once we had this close, they had a 60% chance of making 38 pips,
ZH: 一旦这根阳线收盘，他们有60%的概率可以赚38 ticks
19:42 - 19:44
EN: and you can see some traders took profits here.
ZH: 可以看到有一些多头在这里止盈
19:44 - 19:46
EN: That’s what caused that tail.
ZH: 所以才会有这个上影线
19:49 - 19:53
EN: This is a 60-minute chart of the Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar.
ZH: 这是美元兑加元的60分钟图
Slide 014
Time: 19:50
Bilingual Transcript
19:55 - 19:58
EN: We’re in a bear trend, a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势，非常窄的下降通道
19:58 - 20:01
EN: Very few bull bars, and they’re all small.
ZH: 阳线数量很少，而且体积都很小
20:01 - 20:04
EN: Now we’re getting a bear breakout, a big bear bar,
ZH: 现在出现了大阴线跌破
20:04 - 20:07
EN: closed below the low of the past 50 or 60 bars.
ZH: 收盘低于过去50~60根K线的最低点
20:07 - 20:09
EN: Probability is we’re going to go lower
ZH: 大概率会继续下跌
20:09 - 20:13
EN: - at least to a reward as big as the risk.
ZH: 利润至少和风险一样大
20:15 - 20:17
EN: Strong breakout, good context.
ZH: 强势突破，背景良好
20:19 - 20:24
EN: That means high probability, 60% or more, that traders selling this close
ZH: 这意味着在它的收盘做空的交易者， 大概率，60%或更多，
20:24 - 20:27
EN: will make a reward equal to their risk.
ZH: 可以赚到等同于风险的利润
20:31 - 20:39
EN: Even a scalper going for a small reward has a 60% probability
ZH: 即使是剥头皮交易者， 也有60%的概率赚到1：1的盈亏比
20:36 - 20:39
EN: of making a reward equal to his risk.
ZH: 即使是剥头皮交易者， 也有60%的概率赚到1：1的盈亏比
20:39 - 20:43
EN: For example, if he’s scalping for 12 ticks while risking 11 ticks,
ZH: 例如，如果他打算冒12 pips的风险赚12 pips
20:43 - 20:46
EN: 15 ticks while risking 15 ticks,
ZH: 或者冒15 pips的风险赚15 pips
20:46 - 20:50
EN: 60% chance he’ll reach his target before his stop is hit.
ZH: 60%的概率可以赚钱，而不是被止损亏钱
20:51 - 20:52
EN: That’s the minimum goal.
ZH: 这是最低目标
20:52 - 20:54
EN: Most traders should still swing trade
ZH: 大多数交易者应该做波段交易，
20:54 - 20:58
EN: and try to get a reward at least two times their risk.
ZH: 并尝试赚到至少两倍风险的利润
Slide 015
Time: 21:00
Bilingual Transcript
21:01 - 21:07
EN: A trader can sell this close, maybe put a stop just
ZH: 空头在它的收盘卖出做空， 把止损放在下跌波段的起跌点上方
21:04 - 21:10
EN: above the top of the bear leg or a stop above the top of the bear breakout.
ZH: 空头在它的收盘卖出做空， 把止损放在下跌波段的起跌点上方 或者放在空头突破的起跌点上方
21:10 - 21:13
EN: If this is going to be a successful swing down,
ZH: 如果这是一个成功的下跌波段
21:13 - 21:15
EN: it should not get to the top of this bear bar.
ZH: 反弹就不应该超过这根阴线的高点
21:16 - 21:19
EN: If you sell that close and your stop is here,
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘做空，止损放在这里——
21:19 - 21:23
EN: just above the high of the bar, you’re risking 19 pips.
ZH: 就放在这根K线的高点上方，你的风险是19 pips
21:23 - 21:26
EN: Because the breakout is strong and the context is good,
ZH: 因为突破很强势，背景也很好
21:26 - 21:30
EN: 60% chance it’ll fall 19 pips from your entry
ZH: 60%的概率市场会先下跌19 pips
21:30 - 21:33
EN: before it rallies 19 pips to your stop.
ZH: 而不是上涨19 pips打掉你的止损
21:39 - 21:48
EN: Sell that close, stop up here, 60% chance we’re going to fall
ZH: 在它的收盘卖出，止损放在这里， 60%的概率会下跌到这里——利润等于风险
21:44 - 21:48
EN: to this level – a target equal to the risk.
ZH: 60%的概率会下跌到这里——利润等于风险
Slide 016
Time: 21:55
Bilingual Transcript
21:59 - 22:00
EN: Tight Channel.
ZH: 窄通道
Slide 017
Time: 22:00
Bilingual Transcript
22:00 - 22:02
EN: A breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上是突破
22:04 - 22:06
EN: Some traders instead will sell this close.
ZH: 一些空头会在它的收盘卖出做空
22:06 - 22:09
EN: Their stop is still above the top of the bear breakout.
ZH: 他们的止损仍在空头突破的起点上方
22:09 - 22:16
EN: Their risk is greater, but there’s still a 60% chance the market
ZH: 他们冒了更大的风险， 但下跌到MM目标位的概率仍然是60%
22:14 - 22:16
EN: will fall for a Measured Move.
ZH: 他们冒了更大的风险， 但下跌到MM目标位的概率仍然是60%
22:16 - 22:19
EN: Therefore, their profit is greater as well.
ZH: 所以，他们的利润也更大
22:20 - 22:24
EN: A Sell The Close bear trend, so bears keep selling closes.
ZH: 这是一个“卖收盘”的下降趋势， 所以空头会在每根K线的收盘都卖出
22:24 - 22:26
EN: They don’t sell every close – some will sell this close,
ZH: 并不是让你也在每根K线的收盘都卖出—— 一些空头在它的收盘卖出
22:26 - 22:29
EN: others sell this close, others sell this close.
ZH: 一些空头在它的收盘卖出，一些空头在它的收盘卖出
22:30 - 22:37
EN: No matter which close you sell, 60% chance the market will fall
ZH: 无论你在哪根K线的收盘卖出， 市场跌到MM目标位的概率都是60%
22:34 - 22:37
EN: for a Measured Move from your entry to the stop.
ZH: 无论你在哪根K线的收盘卖出， 市场跌到MM目标位的概率都是60%
22:39 - 22:49
EN: The stop is still 1 pip above the top of that bear breakout,
ZH: 即使你在这里卖出，止损仍在那个高点上方1个pip 但是这些空头的风险是34 pips
22:42 - 22:49
EN: even if you sell here, but the bears who sold here are now risking 34 pips.
ZH: 即使你在这里卖出，止损仍在那个高点上方1个pip 但是这些空头的风险是34 pips
22:49 - 22:55
EN: They have a 60% chance that the market
ZH: 市场有60%先下跌34 pips，而不是打掉他们的止损
22:51 - 22:55
EN: will fall 34 pips before it hits that stop.
ZH: 市场有60%先下跌34 pips，而不是打掉他们的止损
22:57 - 22:58
EN: Here’s the minimum target.
ZH: 这是最低目标
23:02 - 23:06
EN: The bears who sold here, they’re still only risking to this line,
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头，他们的风险仍然只是这一段
23:06 - 23:08
EN: which is 19 pips.
ZH: 一共19 pips
23:08 - 23:10
EN: These bears are risking 19 pips.
ZH: 这些空头冒着19 pips的风险
23:10 - 23:14
EN: Since there’s a 60% chance at this point that we’re going to fall here,
ZH: 由于在这一刻，有60%的概率下跌到这里
23:14 - 23:18
EN: the bears who sold here have a 60% chance
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头有60%的概率，
23:18 - 23:22
EN: of making 49 pips while risking only 19 pips.
ZH: 可以冒19 pips的风险，但是赚49 pips
23:22 - 23:27
EN: As the breakout continues, the math for these bears
ZH: 随着突破的继续，这些空头的数学期望变得越来越好
23:26 - 23:27
EN: gets better and better and better.
ZH: 随着突破的继续，这些空头的数学期望变得越来越好
23:27 - 23:32
EN: Their risk stays the same, but their reward continues
ZH: 他们的风险保持不变， 但利润随着突破的继续而不断增长
23:31 - 23:32
EN: to grow as the breakout grows.
ZH: 他们的风险保持不变， 但利润随着突破的继续而不断增长
23:34 - 23:37
EN: These bears should not be too quick to take profits,
ZH: 这些空头没必要急于止盈
23:37 - 23:40
EN: because their target keeps getting further and further away.
ZH: 因为他们的利润目标越来越大
23:40 - 23:43
EN: Their reward continues to grow as the breakout grows.
ZH: 随着突破的继续，他们的利润不断增长
Slide 018
Time: 23:44
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 019
Time: 23:48
Bilingual Transcript
23:51 - 23:54
EN: It’s still a Sell The Close bear trend, a bear Micro Channel.
ZH: 这仍然是“卖收盘”的下降趋势，下降微通道
23:54 - 23:56
EN: No pullbacks since over here.
ZH: 从这里开始就没有过反弹
23:57 - 23:59
EN: Reasonably strong breakout.
ZH: 相当强势的突破
23:59 - 24:03
EN: Some bears will sell that close, and their stop is above the top
ZH: 一些空头会在它的收盘卖出， 止损放在抢购高潮的起跌点上方，
24:03 - 24:07
EN: of the bear Sell Climax, which is 1 pip above this bear bar.
ZH: 就在这根阴线上方1个 pip
24:08 - 24:11
EN: Their stop is 59 pips above their entry.
ZH: 止损距离是59 pips
24:11 - 24:13
EN: They sell here, stop here.
ZH: 他们在这里开仓，止损在这里
24:13 - 24:17
EN: They’re looking for a Measured Move down, 59 pips below.
ZH: 他们希望跌到MM目标位——在下方59 pips的位置
24:17 - 24:20
EN: And because the breakout is strong and the context is good,
ZH: 并且因为突破强势，背景良好
24:20 - 24:24
EN: they have a 60% chance of the market falling 59 pips down to here
ZH: 有60%的概率市场会先下跌59 pips
24:24 - 24:27
EN: before it rallies 59 pips up there.
ZH: 而不是上涨59 pips
24:39 - 24:43
EN: The bears who sold here, their stop is still only 19 pips.
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头，他们的止损仍然只有19 pips
24:43 - 24:48
EN: But once the market is here, there’s a 60% chance of it falling here.
ZH: 然而一旦跌到这里之后， 市场有60%的概率下跌到这个MM目标位
24:48 - 24:55
EN: These bears now are risking 19 pips and have a 60% chance of making 99 pips.
ZH: 这些空头只冒了19 pips的风险， 但是有60%的概率可以转到99 pips
24:56 - 25:01
EN: As the breakout continues to grow, their probability stays 60%
ZH: 随着突破的继续增长， 他们赚到MM目标位的概率保持在60%——
25:01 - 25:05
EN: that they’ll make a Measured Move based upon the current close to the stop,
ZH: 从目前这根阴线到止损的距离往下翻一倍
25:05 - 25:08
EN: and their risk is still here.
ZH: 而风险始终只有这么多
25:08 - 25:11
EN: So their risk stays the same, the probability stays the same,
ZH: 所以他们的风险保持不变，概率保持不变，
25:11 - 25:15
EN: but as the breakout grows, their reward gets bigger.
ZH: 但随着突破的增长，他们的利润变得越来越大
25:15 - 25:18
EN: And therefore, selling here and holding
ZH: 因此，在这里做空并持有，
25:18 - 25:23
EN: as the breakout continues, you improve your Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 随着突破的继续，数学期望不断提高，变得越来越好
25:22 - 25:23
EN: The math gets better.
ZH: 随着突破的继续，数学期望不断提高，变得越来越好
Slide 020
Time: 25:25
Bilingual Transcript
25:30 - 25:37
EN: Strong reversal up at the Measured Move target
ZH: 基于突破的最后一根阴线收盘价的MM目标位， 达到之后，价格立刻反弹
Slide 021
Time: 25:30
Bilingual Transcript
25:33 - 25:37
EN: based upon the last close of the Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 基于突破的最后一根阴线收盘价的MM目标位， 达到之后，价格立刻反弹
25:37 - 25:47
EN: That tells you that a lot of traders took partial profits, maybe full profits,
ZH: 这说明很多空头都在MM目标位的地方 止盈部分，甚至全部仓位
25:43 - 25:47
EN: and a Measured Move down from that close to where the stop is.
ZH: 这说明很多空头都在MM目标位的地方 止盈部分，甚至全部仓位
25:47 - 25:50
EN: You can see when the market got there, there was a lot of buying,
ZH: 可以看到，价格跌到哪里，有很多买盘，
25:50 - 25:53
EN: and a lot of that buying is bears taking profits
ZH: 很多都是空头在止盈
25:53 - 25:57
EN: - and some of it is from bulls knowing the bears will take profits,
ZH: 也有多头知道空头会在这里止盈，
25:57 - 26:00
EN: so the bulls buy for a scalp.
ZH: 所以买入做剥头皮交易
26:04 - 26:09
EN: The bears who took the first short and held never had more than 19 pips risk.
ZH: 在这里，突破初期入场做空并持有的空头， 冒的风险始终不超过19 pips
26:09 - 26:14
EN: Their stop was above the high of that initial big bear breakout.
ZH: 他们的止损一直在最初突破的大阴线上方
26:16 - 26:23
EN: When they initially sold, they had a 60% chance
ZH: 一开始，他们有60%的概率可以赚19 pips
26:20 - 26:23
EN: of making 19 pips before the stop was hit.
ZH: 一开始，他们有60%的概率可以赚19 pips
26:24 - 26:30
EN: At this point, they had a 60% chance
ZH: 然而到了这里，他们有60%的概率可以赚99 pips
26:27 - 26:30
EN: of making 99 pips before their stop was hit.
ZH: 然而到了这里，他们有60%的概率可以赚99 pips
Slide 022
Time: 26:35
Bilingual Transcript
26:35 - 26:39
EN: I began by talking about the importance of a 50% pullback in a strong trend.
ZH: 这节课我先讲了强趋势中50%回调的重要性
26:39 - 26:43
EN: If you’re in a strong trend and you have a 50% pullback,
ZH: 如果市场出于强趋势，而且有50%回调或反弹
26:43 - 26:47
EN: chances are 60% or higher the trend will resume
ZH: 至少60%的概率趋势会恢复，
26:47 - 26:50
EN: and test the extreme of the trend.
ZH: 去测试前期的最高/低点
26:50 - 26:52
EN: For example, in a bull trend, it’ll test the high
ZH: 例如，在强上涨趋势中，市场会测试前期高点，
26:52 - 26:54
EN: before it hits the stop below the low.
ZH: 而不是先跌破趋势的起涨点
26:56 - 26:59
EN: If you’re entering in a strong breakout and you hold
ZH: 如果你在一个强势的突破中开仓并持有
26:59 - 27:03
EN: as the breakout continues to grow, your math actually improves.
ZH: 随着突破的继续增长，你的数学期望会越来越好
27:03 - 27:06
EN: Your probability stays at 60% of a Measured Move profit,
ZH: 始终有60%的概率可以赚到MM目标位
27:06 - 27:10
EN: your risk remains the same, but as the breakout grows,
ZH: 而且风险保持不变，但随着突破的增长
27:10 - 27:14
EN: the Measured Move target grows, and that means the reward grows as well.
ZH: MM目标位不断变大，所以利润在变大
27:19 - 27:20
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
27:20 - 27:22
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
27:22 - 27:27
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and probability.
ZH: 数学期望和概率的第4节课，就先讲到这里