al-brooks-course
45E - Trading Broad Bull Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 45E - Trading Broad Bull Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 24
- Transcript segments: 426
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on trading Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易宽上涨通道的最后1节课（共5节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: Whenever the market pulls back from a new high into the middle third
ZH: 当价格从新高回调到前一个上涨波段的中间三分之一时，
00:18 - 00:22
EN: or so of the prior bull leg, that is the buy zone.
ZH: 那就是买入区域
00:22 - 00:27
EN: That’s where bulls look to buy, and they want
ZH: 那是多头想要买入的区域，然后他们希望在前期高点上方卖出止盈
00:24 - 00:27
EN: to take profits somewhere above the prior high.
ZH: 那是多头想要买入的区域，然后他们希望在前期高点上方卖出止盈
00:28 - 00:30
EN: 50% pullbacks are common.
ZH: 50%回调很常见
00:30 - 00:37
EN: Very often the market pulls back exactly or almost exactly 50%
ZH: 市场经常精确地回调到左边上涨波段的50%附近，然后恢复上涨
00:34 - 00:37
EN: of the last bull leg and then reverses up,
ZH: 市场经常精确地回调到左边上涨波段的50%附近，然后恢复上涨
00:37 - 00:40
EN: so traders should look to buy around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 所以多头可以考虑在50%回调处买入
00:40 - 00:45
EN: Every Trading Range is a bull flag because it’s a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 因为是宽上涨通道，所以每个震荡区间都是牛旗
00:45 - 00:47
EN: The market is probably going higher.
ZH: 市场大概率会继续上涨
00:47 - 00:50
EN: So if the market enters a Trading Range within the channel,
ZH: 所以，如果上涨通道中出现了震荡区间
00:50 - 00:53
EN: traders should expect trend resumption up.
ZH: 交易者应该预期价格会向上突破
00:54 - 00:58
EN: Finally, every channel eventually evolves into a big Trading Range.
ZH: 最后，每个通道最终都会演变成一个大的震荡区间
Slide 002
Time: 01:00
Bilingual Transcript
01:03 - 01:06
EN: This is a Broad Bull Channel lasting several days.
ZH: 这个宽上涨通道持续了好几天
01:12 - 01:15
EN: A fairly Tight Bull Channel, so a strong bull trend,
ZH: 开始是很窄的上涨通道，所以是强上涨趋势
01:15 - 01:18
EN: and bulls will look to buy somewhere in the middle third.
ZH: 多头想在中间三分之一的某个地方买入
01:19 - 01:21
EN: That is the buy zone.
ZH: 那就是买入区域
01:21 - 01:26
EN: Lower third, upper third, middle third of the most recent rally,
ZH: 上三分之一，下三分之一，中间三分之一
01:26 - 01:28
EN: and that is where bulls try to buy.
ZH: 多头会尝试在那里买入
01:28 - 01:31
EN: They either buy with limit orders or on a reversal up.
ZH: 他们要么在这里挂限价买单， 要么在恢复上涨时用突破买单入场
01:35 - 01:38
EN: Buy a 50% pullback, place a limit order.
ZH: 在50%回调的地方挂限价买单
01:38 - 01:40
EN: Once the market starts to come down,
ZH: 一旦市场开始下跌回调
01:40 - 01:42
EN: you can figure out where the 50% pullback is,
ZH: 你就知道50%在哪里了（注：因为高点已经出现）
01:42 - 01:45
EN: and some bulls place a limit order to buy right there.
ZH: 一些多头会把限价买单挂在这个地方
01:45 - 01:47
EN: Their risk is below here.
ZH: 止损在起涨点下方
01:47 - 01:48
EN: Their reward is here.
ZH: 目标是前期高点
01:48 - 01:52
EN: The risk and reward are the same size, but the market’s in a bull trend,
ZH: 利润和风险差不多大，但市场处于上涨趋势
01:52 - 01:55
EN: so the probability is higher that we’ll get here
ZH: 所以更高的概率会先涨到那里
01:55 - 01:58
EN: before the stop is hit down here.
ZH: 而不是先打掉止损
02:01 - 02:04
EN: Other traders prefer to buy a reversal up,
ZH: 一些交易者更喜欢在反转上涨时买入
02:04 - 02:07
EN: which is a better way to enter if you’re a beginner.
ZH: 对于新手来说这是更好的入场方法
02:07 - 02:10
EN: You place a stop to buy above the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 在前一根K线的高点上方挂突破买单
02:10 - 02:14
EN: especially if it has a bull body, and especially if it’s a two-legged pullback
ZH: 尤其如果它是一根阳线， 尤其如果已经有两段回调（注：高2）
02:14 - 02:18
EN: or a Wedge pullback to the middle third of the most recent bull leg.
ZH: 或者3推楔形回调到中间三分之一的区域
Slide 003
Time: 02:20
Bilingual Transcript
02:27 - 02:38
EN: Broad Channels spend a lot of time sideways, and at times it’s unclear
ZH: 宽通道很多时间都在横盘，有时分不清它是否已经变成震荡区间， 还是说它只是很宽的上涨通道
02:32 - 02:38
EN: whether the channel has evolved into a Trading Range
ZH: 宽通道很多时间都在横盘，有时分不清它是否已经变成震荡区间， 还是说它只是很宽的上涨通道
02:35 - 02:38
EN: or if it’s simply still a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 宽通道很多时间都在横盘，有时分不清它是否已经变成震荡区间， 还是说它只是很宽的上涨通道
02:39 - 02:44
EN: Sometimes you’ll get pullbacks that fall below what you think is key support.
ZH: 有时，你认为的关键支撑位会被跌破
02:44 - 02:46
EN: For example, here’s a 50% pullback.
ZH: 例如，50%回调在这里
02:46 - 02:49
EN: The market has a couple legs up and it failed at the high.
ZH: 两段上涨之后，没能突破前期高点
02:49 - 02:53
EN: Is this a Lower High Major Trend Reversal and the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 它是高点降低的大反转，开始变成下降趋势？
02:53 - 02:56
EN: or is it the start of a bear leg in a Trading Range?
ZH: 还是说，它只不过是震荡区间中的下跌波段而已？
02:56 - 02:57
EN: You don’t know.
ZH: 不知道
02:59 - 03:04
EN: Some bulls will rely on a stop below the bottom
ZH: 一些多头会依靠起涨点下方的止损，然后逢低买入
03:01 - 03:04
EN: of the bull trend, and they’ll buy.
ZH: 一些多头会依靠起涨点下方的止损，然后逢低买入
03:04 - 03:06
EN: They’ll buy with a limit order at the prior low,
ZH: 他们会在前期低点下方挂限价买单
03:06 - 03:09
EN: betting the bear breakout will fail, or they’ll buy on a reversal up,
ZH: 押注向下的跌破会失败； 或者在反转上涨时用突破买单买入
03:09 - 03:12
EN: again relying on their stop down here.
ZH: 同样也是依赖这里的止损
03:13 - 03:14
EN: Here’s a bull leg.
ZH: 上涨波段
03:14 - 03:23
EN: This is the bottom third of that bull leg, and if the market is much more
ZH: 回调到了下三分之一的区域 如果市场更像是震荡区间而不是上涨趋势，比如这个矩形里的行情
03:19 - 03:23
EN: like a Trading Range than a bull trend, as it is in this rectangle,
ZH: 回调到了下三分之一的区域 如果市场更像是震荡区间而不是上涨趋势，比如这个矩形里的行情
03:24 - 03:27
EN: rather than buying in the middle third of the most recent leg up,
ZH: 那么很多人就不愿意在中间买入
03:27 - 03:32
EN: a lot of traders will trade it more like a Trading Range
ZH: 而是按照震荡区间来交易——在底部三分之一买入
03:30 - 03:32
EN: and buy in the bottom third.
ZH: 而是按照震荡区间来交易——在底部三分之一买入
03:33 - 03:34
EN: When it’s clearly in a bull trend,
ZH: 如果是明显的上涨趋势
03:34 - 03:38
EN: traders buy in the middle third, around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 交易者会在中间三分之一买入，大约50%回调的地方
03:38 - 03:41
EN: When it’s not so clear that it’s still in a bull trend
ZH: 如果不确定是否仍然是上涨趋势
03:41 - 03:44
EN: and it looks more like a Trading Range, traders prefer to buy
ZH: 反而看起来很像是震荡区间时， 多头更喜欢在底部三分之一买入
03:44 - 03:47
EN: in the bottom third – here or on a reversal up.
ZH: 挂限价买单，或者在这根阳线上方买入
03:53 - 03:58
EN: You can buy with a limit order somewhere around 60% or 70% down.
ZH: 你可以把限价买单挂在60%或70%回调的地方
03:59 - 04:02
EN: Some traders like to use Fibonacci numbers, but I think it’s nonsense.
ZH: 一些交易者喜欢斐波那契数列（注：黄金分割数） 但我认为那没什么意义
04:05 - 04:09
EN: Better to buy with a stop on a reversal up, especially if you’re starting out.
ZH: 最好在反转上涨时用突破买单入场，尤其对于新手来说
04:09 - 04:11
EN: Higher probability of making money.
ZH: 这样入场赚钱的概率更高
04:15 - 04:16
EN: It’s a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
Slide 004
Time: 04:15
Bilingual Transcript
04:16 - 04:24
EN: Clearly making Higher Highs and Higher Lows, and therefore you can buy
ZH: 高点和低点显然在抬高， 你可以随时随地买入，前提是使用合理的止损——
04:21 - 04:24
EN: at any time as long as you use an appropriate stop
ZH: 高点和低点显然在抬高， 你可以随时随地买入，前提是使用合理的止损——
04:24 - 04:27
EN: below the bottom of the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 放在最近一个重要低点的下方
04:27 - 04:30
EN: Strong leg up, major low.
ZH: 强势的上涨波段，它是重要低点
04:30 - 04:33
EN: Traders can buy at any time and put a stop there.
ZH: 交易者可以随时买入，然后把止损放在那里
04:33 - 04:36
EN: Another strong reversal up to a new high.
ZH: 强势反转上涨，创新高
04:36 - 04:38
EN: This then is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 它变成了重要的低点
04:38 - 04:42
EN: Traders can buy at any time and put a stop there.
ZH: 多头可以随时买入，然后把止损放在它的下方
04:50 - 04:54
EN: You can even buy at a prior high – for example,
ZH: 甚至可以在突破前期高点的时候买入
04:54 - 05:00
EN: with a stop order 1 tick above this high or 1 tick
ZH: 比如把突破买单挂在它上方1个tick， 或者挂在它的上方——关键是要使用合理的止损
04:57 - 05:00
EN: above that high – as long as you use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 比如把突破买单挂在它上方1个tick， 或者挂在它的上方——关键是要使用合理的止损
05:00 - 05:07
EN: Even buying at the high is profitable if you use the appropriate stop,
ZH: 如果你能够设置合理的止损并且加仓， 就算追涨在最高也能赚钱
05:05 - 05:07
EN: and especially if you can scale in lower.
ZH: 如果你能够设置合理的止损并且加仓， 就算追涨在最高也能赚钱
05:08 - 05:11
EN: Because a Broad Bull Channel behaves so much like a Trading Range,
ZH: 因为宽上涨通道中的价格行为非常像震荡区间
05:11 - 05:13
EN: it’s usually better not to be buying high.
ZH: 所以最好不要追涨
05:13 - 05:18
EN: You want to be buying low and you want to be selling high,
ZH: 最好在低位买入，然后在高位卖出止盈
05:16 - 05:18
EN: selling to take profits.
ZH: 最好在低位买入，然后在高位卖出止盈
05:21 - 05:23
EN: The stop is obvious.
ZH: 止损位很明显
05:23 - 05:26
EN: A very strong bull leg up, a major Higher Low.
ZH: 非常强势的上涨波段，它是重要的低点
05:26 - 05:28
EN: This is a good location for a stop.
ZH: 把止损放在它下方是合理的
05:28 - 05:31
EN: Here, we have a spike pullback channel.
ZH: 这里，极速上涨、回调、通道
05:31 - 05:33
EN: Some bulls will put their stop here.
ZH: 一些多头会把止损放在这里
05:33 - 05:34
EN: It’s probably better here.
ZH: 放在它的下方更好一些 （注：因为通道变成震荡区间，起点容易被跌破）
05:35 - 05:38
EN: We have a breakout to a new high, fairly Tight Channel.
ZH: 上涨到新高，很窄的上涨通道
05:38 - 05:43
EN: This is a major Higher Low in an ongoing bull trend,
ZH: 上涨趋势还在继续，它变成了重要的低点
05:43 - 05:45
EN: so reasonable location for a stop.
ZH: 是合理的止损位
05:45 - 05:48
EN: Strong breakout to a new high, major Higher Low.
ZH: 强势突破创新高，低点再次抬高
Slide 005
Time: 05:50
Bilingual Transcript
05:55 - 05:58
EN: Because so much of the time it looks like it’s in a Trading Range
ZH: 因为很多时候市场看起来像是处于震荡区间
05:58 - 06:05
EN: and it is in a Trading Range, rather than buying a breakout to a new high,
ZH: 这确实就是一个震荡区间， 所以最好不要像在强上涨趋势中那样追涨
06:03 - 06:05
EN: as you would do in a strong bull trend,
ZH: 这确实就是一个震荡区间， 所以最好不要像在强上涨趋势中那样追涨
06:06 - 06:09
EN: in a Broad Bull Channel it’s better to be buying pullbacks.
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中，最好在回调时逢低买入
06:15 - 06:22
EN: Rather than buying at the new high, it’s better to be buying pullbacks
ZH: 与其在创新高时追涨，不如等待突破后的回调， 因为空头会在前期高点上方卖出做空
06:18 - 06:22
EN: from the new high because bears will be selling at the new high,
ZH: 与其在创新高时追涨，不如等待突破后的回调， 因为空头会在前期高点上方卖出做空
06:22 - 06:26
EN: knowing that the reversals down will be deep enough for them to make a profit.
ZH: 他们相信会有足够深的回调，使得做空也能赚到钱
Slide 006
Time: 06:30
Bilingual Transcript
06:31 - 06:33
EN: You should take profits at prior highs.
ZH: 多头应该在前期高点止盈
06:33 - 06:38
EN: That means you should sell at prior highs, or at least take partial profits.
ZH: 可以在前期高点挂限价卖单，止盈至少一部分仓位
Slide 007
Time: 06:39
Bilingual Transcript
06:43 - 06:47
EN: Profit-taking zone: at or above the most recent high.
ZH: 止盈区域：在前期高点及它的上方
06:48 - 06:50
EN: If the bulls bought this pullback,
ZH: 如果多头在回调时买入
06:50 - 06:53
EN: they’re going to try to get out at or around that high.
ZH: 他们的目标是在那个高点及上方卖出止盈
06:53 - 06:57
EN: If they bought a pullback here, here’s the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 如果他们在这里回调时买入，这是最近一个重要的高点
06:57 - 06:58
EN: They’ll try to get out here.
ZH: 他们会在这个价格卖出
06:58 - 07:00
EN: Here’s the most recent high.
ZH: 这是最近的高点
07:00 - 07:01
EN: They’ll try to get out there.
ZH: 他们会在这个价格卖出
07:01 - 07:07
EN: So every prior high is a profit-taking area for bulls who buy the pullbacks.
ZH: 对于买回调的多头来说，每一个前期高点都是止盈区域
07:11 - 07:14
EN: Again, you can buy for any reason, but it’s good to be buying
ZH: 再讲一遍，你可以通过任何方式买入，
07:14 - 07:22
EN: in the middle third of the prior bull leg and then taking partial
ZH: 但最好是在回调到中间三分之一的时候买入， 然后在前期高点止盈部分或全部仓位
07:18 - 07:22
EN: or full profits at or above the prior high.
ZH: 但最好是在回调到中间三分之一的时候买入， 然后在前期高点止盈部分或全部仓位
07:25 - 07:28
EN: Or you could take profits on a reversal down.
ZH: 或者你可以在反转下跌时离场
07:28 - 07:34
EN: Some traders do not want to put a limit order to take profits
ZH: 一些多头不喜欢在前期高点挂限价卖单止盈， 以防市场突破之后继续上涨
07:31 - 07:34
EN: at the prior high, just in case the market keeps going up.
ZH: 一些多头不喜欢在前期高点挂限价卖单止盈， 以防市场突破之后继续上涨
07:34 - 07:39
EN: Instead they’ll look to take profits
ZH: 当价格在前期高点附近反转下跌的时候，他们才离场
07:36 - 07:39
EN: on a reversal down from around the prior high.
ZH: 当价格在前期高点附近反转下跌的时候，他们才离场
07:39 - 07:42
EN: Here, slightly below that high, and we’re starting to reverse down.
ZH: 这里，略低于前期的高点，并且开始反转下跌
07:45 - 07:48
EN: Remember, the bears are going to be doing the same thing.
ZH: 空头也会做同样的事情
07:48 - 07:51
EN: They’re going to be selling exactly where the bulls are selling.
ZH: 多头离场的地方，正是空头入场做空的地方
07:51 - 07:55
EN: The bulls are selling to take profits; the bears are selling to make a profit.
ZH: 多头卖出止盈，空头卖出做空
07:55 - 07:59
EN: They’re betting that the pullbacks will be deep enough for them to make a scalp.
ZH: 他们押注会有足够深的回调，至少能让他们赚一笔剥头皮交易
08:00 - 08:03
EN: Sometimes the market will become Always In Short,
ZH: 有时候市场变成单边下跌
08:03 - 08:04
EN: and they can make more than a scalp.
ZH: 空头就不只是赚到剥头皮的利润了
08:04 - 08:06
EN: They can have a swing down.
ZH: 他们能赚到一个下跌波段
Slide 008
Time: 08:10
Bilingual Transcript
08:14 - 08:18
EN: A Broad Bull Channel is simply a Trading Range that’s sloped upward,
ZH: 宽上涨通道就是一个向上倾斜的震荡区间
08:18 - 08:22
EN: and it behaves like a Trading Range, and therefore bulls have to expect
ZH: 它的行为和震荡区间一样，所以多头必须考虑到深度回调的可能
08:22 - 08:27
EN: deep pullbacks and you need the stop below the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 需要把止损放在最近一个重要低点的下方
08:27 - 08:30
EN: Again, this maybe is major.
ZH: 这个低点，也许是重要的
08:30 - 08:32
EN: We came up to a new high.
ZH: 因为上涨到了新高
08:32 - 08:35
EN: A few legs up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three
ZH: 有几段上涨——1，回调；2，回调；3
08:35 - 08:37
EN: - but it’s a Spike and Channel.
ZH: ——急速变通道
08:37 - 08:44
EN: Spike, pullback, channel, and the market often falls a little bit
ZH: 急速上涨，回调，通道，市场经常会略微跌破通道的起点， 然后很快反转上涨
08:41 - 08:44
EN: below the bottom of the channel before reversing up,
ZH: 急速上涨，回调，通道，市场经常会略微跌破通道的起点， 然后很快反转上涨
08:44 - 08:47
EN: and therefore a better location if you’re looking for a swing is here.
ZH: 所以对于波段交易而言，更好的选择是把止损放在这里
08:47 - 08:50
EN: A bull who did not get out on the reversal down here,
ZH: 在反转下跌时没有提前离场的多头
08:51 - 08:54
EN: it’s better to have their stop down here rather than here.
ZH: 最好把止损放在它的下方，而不是这里
09:01 - 09:09
EN: A lot of bulls like to buy around the most recent Higher Low,
ZH: 很多多头喜欢在前期低点附近买入，不管它是不是重要的低点， 或者会在反转上涨时买入
09:05 - 09:09
EN: major or minor, or they’ll buy on a reversal up.
ZH: 很多多头喜欢在前期低点附近买入，不管它是不是重要的低点， 或者会在反转上涨时买入
09:10 - 09:12
EN: This is a type of Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一种双底
09:12 - 09:14
EN: Some computers will see this as a Double Bottom.
ZH: 一些电脑程序也会把它看作是双低
09:14 - 09:17
EN: Strong rally, pullback, and then we pulled back again,
ZH: 强势上涨，回调，再次回调
09:17 - 09:21
EN: but to a Higher Low, and therefore this is a Double Bottom.
ZH: 但没有跌破重要的低点，所以这是一个双低
09:21 - 09:24
EN: Some computers will even see this as a Double Bottom
ZH: 一些电脑程序也会把它看作是双低
09:24 - 09:30
EN: - a slightly Higher Low for the second bottom,
ZH: 这个上涨波段在回调之后，形成低点略微抬高的双底
09:26 - 09:30
EN: but it’s still a Double Bottom after the pullback from this breakout.
ZH: 这个上涨波段在回调之后，形成低点略微抬高的双底
09:30 - 09:32
EN: So this is a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 所以这是一个双底牛旗
09:32 - 09:34
EN: This is a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 它也是双底牛旗
09:34 - 09:37
EN: In both cases you’re going to look to buy the reversal up.
ZH: 不管怎么看，都可以考虑在反转上涨时买入
09:38 - 09:41
EN: Double Bottoms are rarely ever perfect.
ZH: 很少有完美的双底
09:41 - 09:44
EN: Double Tops are rarely ever perfect also.
ZH: 也很少有完美的双顶
09:49 - 09:53
EN: Remember, the odds are if you think it’s a bull channel,
ZH: 如果你认为这是上涨通道，
09:53 - 09:55
EN: every one of these reversal attempts will fail.
ZH: 那么所有这些反转的尝试大概率都会失败
09:55 - 09:59
EN: Some bulls therefore will buy the closes of big bear bars,
ZH: 因此一些多头会在大阴线的收盘买入
09:59 - 10:03
EN: betting that the follow-through will be disappointing.
ZH: 押注空头不会有好的跟随
10:03 - 10:06
EN: They basically are treating it like a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 基本上把它看作第2段陷阱
10:06 - 10:07
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
10:07 - 10:11
EN: They’re betting that the bear breakout
ZH: 多头押注这根大阴线会把在低位追空的弱空头套牢
10:09 - 10:11
EN: simply will trap weak bears into selling low.
ZH: 多头押注这根大阴线会把在低位追空的弱空头套牢
Slide 009
Time: 10:15
Bilingual Transcript
10:22 - 10:25
EN: Remember, bulls are trying to buy pullbacks.
ZH: 多头想要在回调时买入
10:25 - 10:29
EN: They want to buy below the high because they know
ZH: 他们想要在低位买入，因为高位会有很多卖盘
10:28 - 10:29
EN: there’ll be a lot of sellers at the high.
ZH: 他们想要在低位买入，因为高位会有很多卖盘
10:29 - 10:34
EN: Other bulls will sell to take profits, and bears will sell to go short.
ZH: 其他多头会卖出止盈，空头会卖出做空
10:34 - 10:37
EN: Therefore, if everyone’s looking to buy low,
ZH: 因此，如果每个人都只愿意逢低买入
10:37 - 10:40
EN: there’s sometimes a lack of buyers near the top.
ZH: 那么在上沿就没有足够多的买盘
10:47 - 10:50
EN: The result can be a sell vacuum.
ZH: 结果就变成了真空下跌——
10:50 - 10:59
EN: The bulls do not want to buy too high, so when the market starts to go down,
ZH: 没有人想在高位买入（注：上方和中间没有买单） 导致价格急剧地反转下跌，然后多头在下沿突然出现
10:54 - 10:59
EN: it often can go very fast and then suddenly the bulls appear.
ZH: 没有人想在高位买入（注：上方和中间没有买单） 导致价格急剧地反转下跌，然后多头在下沿突然出现
11:00 - 11:03
EN: Here we got a gap down and the bulls did not want to buy here;
ZH: 这里跳空低开，因为多头不想在这里买入
11:03 - 11:06
EN: however, they were very happy to buy this low.
ZH: 但他们非常乐意在低位入场
11:06 - 11:09
EN: That’s what I’m talking about, about a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 这就是我所说的第2段陷阱
11:10 - 11:14
EN: In the top third, top half, a lot of times the market will fall quickly
ZH: 在上面三分之一，或者上半部分，很多时候市场会迅速下跌
11:14 - 11:17
EN: because the buyers do not want to buy too high.
ZH: 因为多头不愿意在高位挂买单
11:17 - 11:20
EN: And then when it falls low enough, all of a sudden the bulls
ZH: 当价格跌到足够低的位置时，
11:20 - 11:23
EN: buy aggressively, overwhelming the bears.
ZH: 多头突然出现、大量买入，造成急剧的反转 （注：同时空头买入回补，而且没有空头愿意在低位挂限价卖单）
11:35 - 11:38
EN: There are often many choices for a stop.
ZH: 通常有多个止损位的选择
Slide 010
Time: 11:35
Bilingual Transcript
11:38 - 11:42
EN: If the choices are reasonable, using any of them is fine.
ZH: 如果这些选择是合理的，那么任选其一即可
11:42 - 11:45
EN: If you use a tighter stop, it’s going to get hit more often,
ZH: 如果选择窄止损，那么被打到的频率会更高
11:45 - 11:46
EN: but you’ll lose less.
ZH: 但每次亏损更小
11:46 - 11:49
EN: If you use a wider stop, it will get hit less often
ZH: 如果使用较宽的止损，被打到的次数更少，
11:49 - 11:52
EN: and you’ll lose more when it gets hit.
ZH: 但每次打到的时候亏损更大
11:52 - 12:00
EN: However, if you take 10 trades with the tight stop,
ZH: 如果用窄止损和宽止损各做10笔交易， 最后总的利润是差不多的
11:55 - 12:00
EN: 10 trades with the wide stop, you’ll end up making
ZH: 如果用窄止损和宽止损各做10笔交易， 最后总的利润是差不多的
11:58 - 12:00
EN: about the same amount of money.
ZH: 如果用窄止损和宽止损各做10笔交易， 最后总的利润是差不多的
12:00 - 12:01
EN: So it’s a matter of personal preference.
ZH: 所以这主要看个人的喜好
12:02 - 12:05
EN: The key is the stops have to be reasonable.
ZH: 关键是止损必须合理
12:05 - 12:10
EN: If you use a stop that is too tight or too wide, you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 如果止损太宽，或者太窄，你肯定会亏钱
12:12 - 12:13
EN: A major Higher Low.
ZH: 重要的低点
12:13 - 12:16
EN: So we have a strong bull breakout, a reversal up.
ZH: 上涨，回调，再次上涨创新高
12:16 - 12:18
EN: This is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 所以它是重要的低点
12:18 - 12:22
EN: That is a reasonable location for a stop, just below that low.
ZH: 把止损放在它的下方是合理的
12:27 - 12:33
EN: We have a new low reversing up, slightly Higher Low
ZH: 价格在这里反转上涨，略微高于前期的低点—— 从新高回调下跌到这里
12:30 - 12:33
EN: after a strong selloff from a new high.
ZH: 价格在这里反转上涨，略微高于前期的低点—— 从新高回调下跌到这里
12:38 - 12:41
EN: As I said, some traders would look at this as major.
ZH: 刚才已经讲过，一些交易者认为这个低点很重要
12:41 - 12:45
EN: Others would say this is really major and this is minor.
ZH: 一些交易者认为它是次要的，这个才是重要的低点
12:45 - 12:49
EN: It’s an important minor, but it’s probably not really a major Higher Low.
ZH: 它不是真正的重要低点
12:50 - 12:52
EN: Is it reasonable to put a stop here?
ZH: 把止损放在它的下方合理吗？
12:52 - 12:53
EN: It probably is.
ZH: 也许可以
12:53 - 12:56
EN: But in general, if you’re not getting out on the reversal down,
ZH: 但通常来说，如果你不打算在反转下跌初期提前离场的话
12:56 - 12:59
EN: it’s probably better to put the stop down here,
ZH: 最好把止损放在它的下方
12:59 - 13:02
EN: which is clearly a major Higher Low.
ZH: 因为它很明显是重要的低点
13:09 - 13:11
EN: If a trader did buy for any reason
ZH: 如果多头在某个地方买入，
13:11 - 13:13
EN: and put a stop down here, he’d get stopped out.
ZH: 并且把止损设置在这里，他会被止损
13:14 - 13:17
EN: But we’re still forming a Higher Low on this reversal up.
ZH: 但价格在这里反转上涨，低点仍然抬高了
13:17 - 13:21
EN: He can always buy again on the reversal up after his stop was hit.
ZH: 在止损被打掉之后，他总是可以在反转上涨时再次买入
Slide 011
Time: 13:25
Bilingual Transcript
13:27 - 13:32
EN: 50% pullback, very important location for any trade.
ZH: 50%回调，对于任何交易来说都是非常重要的位置
Slide 012
Time: 13:33
Bilingual Transcript
13:38 - 13:42
EN: We’re getting very deep pullbacks, but Higher Lows and Higher Highs,
ZH: 有非常深的回调，但低点和高点都在抬高
13:42 - 13:44
EN: so we’re in a bull trend even though it’s weak.
ZH: 所以仍然是上涨趋势，尽管它很弱
13:45 - 13:48
EN: The bears are in control for a lot of bars
ZH: 有很多时间是空头在掌控市场
13:48 - 13:51
EN: - here, 50, 60, 70 bars, the bears are in control.
ZH: ——这里的50、60、70根K线，市场由空头主导
13:51 - 13:58
EN: Here, 30 bars the bears are in control, but we’re still forming Higher Lows
ZH: 这里的30根K线由空头主导，但低点和高点仍然在抬高， 所以依旧是上涨趋势
13:56 - 13:58
EN: and Higher Highs, so it’s still a bull trend.
ZH: 这里的30根K线由空头主导，但低点和高点仍然在抬高， 所以依旧是上涨趋势
14:02 - 14:10
EN: Because it’s a bull trend, by definition it’s probably
ZH: 既然是上涨趋势，根据定义， 它大概率会上涨到新高，而不是跌到新低
14:06 - 14:10
EN: going to form a new high before it forms a new major low.
ZH: 既然是上涨趋势，根据定义， 它大概率会上涨到新高，而不是跌到新低
14:13 - 14:18
EN: At a 50% pullback for the bulls, the reward equals the risk.
ZH: 在50%回调的地方，利润等于风险
14:21 - 14:22
EN: Strong bull leg.
ZH: 强势的上涨波段
14:22 - 14:23
EN: Here’s the 50% pullback.
ZH: 这里是50%回调
14:24 - 14:30
EN: If a trader at this instant were to buy, he’s looking for a test
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这里买入，目标是回到前期高点， 止损放在起涨点下方
14:28 - 14:30
EN: of the high and his stop is below the low.
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这里买入，目标是回到前期高点， 止损放在起涨点下方
14:30 - 14:32
EN: His reward is equal to the risk.
ZH: 这笔交易的利润等于风险
14:33 - 14:34
EN: But we’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 但市场处于上涨趋势
14:34 - 14:39
EN: Therefore, it’s more likely he’s going to make a profit than it
ZH: 因此他更有可能赚钱，而不是亏损
14:38 - 14:39
EN: is he’s going to lose money,
ZH: 因此他更有可能赚钱，而不是亏损
14:43 - 14:47
EN: and therefore bulls will buy with a limit order at a 50% pullback.
ZH: 所以多头会在50%回调挂限价买单
14:57 - 15:01
EN: Stop just below the bottom of the major low.
ZH: 止损就放在起涨点下方
15:05 - 15:08
EN: Here, the bulls have two legs up.
ZH: 这里，两段上涨之后
15:08 - 15:09
EN: Maybe a Trading Range.
ZH: 可能是震荡区间
15:09 - 15:11
EN: It did not reach his target.
ZH: 没有达到多头的目标（前期高点）
15:11 - 15:13
EN: However, it’s starting to reverse down.
ZH: 价格开始反转下跌
15:13 - 15:16
EN: A lot of bulls will exit, maybe below this bear bar.
ZH: 很多多头会在这根阴线的下方离场
15:17 - 15:20
EN: They would exit because if the market’s turning into a Trading Range
ZH: 因为如果市场变成震荡区间
15:20 - 15:23
EN: and they bought fairly low, they want to sell high,
ZH: 他们之前在相对较低的价格买入， 现在希望在高位卖出
15:23 - 15:27
EN: and they’ll convert to scalping more and swing trading less.
ZH: 所以交易者会更多地剥头皮，而不是再继续做波段交易
15:27 - 15:32
EN: The bears see it as a Double Top or a slightly Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 空头把它看作是双顶，或高点降低的大反转机会
15:32 - 15:37
EN: Bull trend, bear breakout, Lower High, and they might get a reversal down.
ZH: 上涨趋势，跌破趋势线，高点降低， 空头希望市场会反转下跌
Slide 013
Time: 15:40
Bilingual Transcript
15:44 - 15:46
EN: A low, a rally.
ZH: 从这个低点开始上涨
15:46 - 15:48
EN: Remember, this is a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这里是50%回调
15:48 - 15:51
EN: Traders bought it here, and they might either buy it here
ZH: 多头在这里买入，他们可能会在这里再次买入
15:51 - 15:54
EN: or on a reversal up from a pullback below the 50% line.
ZH: 或者在价格从50%下方反转上涨时买入
15:59 - 16:05
EN: They can either take profits with a limit order
ZH: 他们可以在前期高点挂限价卖单止盈， 或者在反转下跌时用突破卖单离场
16:02 - 16:05
EN: at the prior high or on a reversal down.
ZH: 他们可以在前期高点挂限价卖单止盈， 或者在反转下跌时用突破卖单离场
16:06 - 16:11
EN: Here’s a bear bar at the end of the session.
ZH: 马上就要收盘了，多头可以在这根阴线的下方离场
16:08 - 16:11
EN: They could sell out of their longs below that bear bar.
ZH: 马上就要收盘了，多头可以在这根阴线的下方离场
16:18 - 16:20
EN: Reasonably strong leg up.
ZH: 相当强势的上涨波段
16:20 - 16:25
EN: A lot of traders will place a limit order
ZH: 很多交易者会在50%回调挂限价买单，也就是绿色框框的位置
16:22 - 16:25
EN: to buy at a 50% pullback, this green box.
ZH: 很多交易者会在50%回调挂限价买单，也就是绿色框框的位置
16:26 - 16:28
EN: Stop down here, profit target up here.
ZH: 止损在这里，目标在这里
16:28 - 16:30
EN: Others will buy on a reversal up.
ZH: 一些多头会在反转上涨时买入
16:30 - 16:36
EN: Slightly higher probability because the market’s reversing up
ZH: 这样做的胜率略高一些， 因为价格正在从50%回调这个支撑位反转上涨
16:33 - 16:36
EN: from the support of a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这样做的胜率略高一些， 因为价格正在从50%回调这个支撑位反转上涨
16:41 - 16:49
EN: Again, they can exit with a limit order, selling out of their longs
ZH: 和刚才一样，他们可以在前期高点挂限价卖单卖出止盈， 也可以在这根反转小阴线的下方用突破卖单离场
16:45 - 16:49
EN: at the prior high or on a reversal down below that little reversal bar.
ZH: 和刚才一样，他们可以在前期高点挂限价卖单卖出止盈， 也可以在这根反转小阴线的下方用突破卖单离场
16:50 - 16:51
EN: That’s a second entry sell.
ZH: 那也是空头的第2做空入场点
16:51 - 16:54
EN: We tried to reverse down below this bear bar,
ZH: 这根阴线下方是第1做空入场点
16:54 - 16:57
EN: and then just 2 bars later we’re trying to reverse down again,
ZH: 两根K线之后，再次尝试反转下跌
16:57 - 17:02
EN: and it’s either in a Broad Bull Channel or possibly in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场目前要么是宽上涨通道，要么是震荡区间
17:02 - 17:06
EN: In both cases it’s reasonable to get out of longs on a second reversal down
ZH: 不管是哪种情况，多头在第2次反转下跌时离场都是合理的选择
17:06 - 17:16
EN: because bears will sell, knowing that the probability is higher of making money
ZH: 因为空头在卖出做空——他们知道在宽上涨通道或震荡区间中， 第2次反转下跌时做空有更高的概率能赚钱
17:11 - 17:16
EN: after a second reversal down in a Broad Bull Channel or in a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为空头在卖出做空——他们知道在宽上涨通道或震荡区间中， 第2次反转下跌时做空有更高的概率能赚钱
Slide 014
Time: 17:19
Bilingual Transcript
17:21 - 17:24
EN: Couple of weeks of a channel, fairly broad.
ZH: 持续了几个礼拜的上涨通道，相当的宽
17:24 - 17:27
EN: Looks tight, but in fact on the 5-minute chart it’s broad.
ZH: 看起来很窄，但实际上在5分钟图上它是宽通道
17:27 - 17:31
EN: The market was Always In Short and was in a bear trend day this day,
ZH: 这里市场在单边下跌，是一个下降趋势日
17:31 - 17:36
EN: but that bear trend is simply a Higher Low in a bull channel.
ZH: 然而这段下跌只是形成了上涨趋势中有一个抬高的低点
17:43 - 17:45
EN: 20 day bull channel.
ZH: 持续了20天的上涨通道
17:45 - 17:47
EN: It’s a very Tight Channel on the 60-minute chart.
ZH: 在60分钟图上，它看起来很窄
17:48 - 17:50
EN: The pullbacks are 20 or 30 points.
ZH: 但回调的幅度有20、30个点
17:50 - 17:54
EN: That’s tight on a 60-minute chart, but if you’re trading it
ZH: 尽管在60分钟图上是窄通道， 但如果你在5分钟图上交易，
17:54 - 17:59
EN: on the 5-minute chart, those pullbacks are big and the channel is broad.
ZH: 那些回调幅度非常大，通道很宽
18:03 - 18:07
EN: Every Broad Bull Channel has Trading Ranges within them,
ZH: 每个宽上涨通道内都有震荡区间
18:08 - 18:12
EN: and you can see the Trading Ranges are forming higher and higher up,
ZH: 可以看到这些区间越来越高
18:12 - 18:15
EN: so they’re trending Trading Ranges.
ZH: 所以是震荡上涨
18:17 - 18:23
EN: The odds of trend resumption up are better
ZH: 上涨趋势中，继续上涨的概率比反转下跌的概率更高
18:20 - 18:23
EN: than the odds of trend reversal down when you’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势中，继续上涨的概率比反转下跌的概率更高
Slide 015
Time: 18:20
Bilingual Transcript
18:26 - 18:27
EN: Trading Range BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 震荡区间是突破模式
18:27 - 18:33
EN: Typically 50% chance you get a reversal down, 50% chance you get a reversal up.
ZH: 平时是50%概率向上突破，50%概率向下突破
18:34 - 18:37
EN: 50% chance the first breakout up or down will fail and reverse.
ZH: 50%概率第一次突破，不论向上还是向下，会失败
18:38 - 18:40
EN: However, the trend up is very strong.
ZH: 然而，上涨趋势很强势
18:40 - 18:43
EN: The odds always slightly favor the trend continuing.
ZH: 所以趋势继续的概率总是略微高一些
18:43 - 18:48
EN: So trend resumption up is always slightly more likely than trend reversal down.
ZH: 继续上涨的概率总是略微高于反转下跌的概率
18:48 - 18:50
EN: If you get enough bars in the range,
ZH: 如果区间持续了很久
18:50 - 18:53
EN: the probability starts to become close to 50/50.
ZH: 那么概率开始接近50对50
18:57 - 19:03
EN: Every Trading Range has both a reasonable buy setup and a reasonable sell setup.
ZH: 每个震荡区间里，都同时存在合理的做多、做空机会
19:04 - 19:07
EN: The buy setup is usually a Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 做多机会通常是双底牛旗
19:07 - 19:11
EN: and the sell setup is usually some kind of a Double Top.
ZH: 做空机会通常是某种双顶
19:11 - 19:14
EN: Remember, every Major Trend Reversal is a type of Double Top.
ZH: 所有的顶部大反转都属于双顶
19:14 - 19:17
EN: Sometimes you get a Lower High.
ZH: 只不过有时高点降低，有时高点抬高
19:15 - 19:17
EN: Other times you get a Higher High.
ZH: 只不过有时高点降低，有时高点抬高
19:20 - 19:24
EN: Here we have an Expanding Triangle, yet the trend continued up.
ZH: 这里有一个扩张三角形，但趋势继续上涨
19:24 - 19:26
EN: In fact, it accelerated up.
ZH: 事实上，它加速上涨了
19:28 - 19:34
EN: Higher High Major Trend Reversal, which is a Double Top,
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转，是双顶的一种， 只不过第2个高点更高一些
19:31 - 19:34
EN: type of Double Top where the second high is higher.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转，是双顶的一种， 只不过第2个高点更高一些
19:36 - 19:37
EN: Trend continuing up.
ZH: 继续上涨
19:37 - 19:42
EN: Here, a Double Top, neckline, broke below the neckline but reversed back up.
ZH: 这里也有双顶，这是它的颈线， 向下跌破，但最终还是恢复上涨
19:46 - 19:49
EN: A Final Flag, a bull breakout that’s reversing down.
ZH: （窄震荡区间）潜在的末端牛旗， 刚突破就反转下跌
19:52 - 19:54
EN: Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 头肩顶
19:54 - 19:58
EN: Started to break to the downside, but failed and continued back up.
ZH: 尝试向下跌破，失败了，恢复上涨
20:00 - 20:02
EN: Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 扩张三角形
20:02 - 20:03
EN: Tried to reverse down.
ZH: 尝试反转下跌
20:03 - 20:06
EN: The bulls bought it and the bull trend continued.
ZH: 多头买入，趋势继续
20:09 - 20:11
EN: Another Final Flag reversal, similar to this.
ZH: 又是一个潜在的末端牛旗反转，和刚才这里很像
20:12 - 20:15
EN: A Tight Trading Range, a breakout, a reversal down.
ZH: 窄震荡区间，略微突破，反转下跌
20:22 - 20:26
EN: Many of the patterns have two or more ways to label them.
ZH: 很多结构都有不同的名称
20:26 - 20:27
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 但那些不是关键
20:27 - 20:29
EN: Don’t lose sight of the goal.
ZH: 不要忽略了本质
20:29 - 20:31
EN: The bears are looking for a top.
ZH: 本质是空头在寻找顶部反转的机会
20:31 - 20:35
EN: You want to call this a Final Flag top,
ZH: 它叫末端牛旗反转，还是叫头肩顶？
20:33 - 20:35
EN: do you want to call it a Head and Shoulders Top?
ZH: 它叫末端牛旗反转，还是叫头肩顶？
20:35 - 20:35
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 无所谓
20:35 - 20:37
EN: Expanding Triangle top.
ZH: 扩张三角形顶
20:37 - 20:41
EN: Every Expanding Triangle top is also a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 扩张三角形顶也都是高点抬高的大反转结构
20:41 - 20:42
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 无所谓
20:42 - 20:45
EN: The bears are simply looking for a reasonable sell setup,
ZH: 空头只是在寻找一个合理的做空机会
20:45 - 20:49
EN: and all of these are reasonable – which means a trader can sell.
ZH: 而所有这些都是合理的——也就是说空头可以做空
20:50 - 20:55
EN: Most of these shorts either turn into small profits or small losses.
ZH: 但大部分要么是小赚，要么是小亏
Slide 016
Time: 21:00
Bilingual Transcript
21:01 - 21:09
EN: Whenever a top fails, the bears are going to give up and they’re going
ZH: 每当筑顶失败（注：继续创新高），空头就会放弃， 他们买入止损；同时多头会买入做多
21:05 - 21:09
EN: to buy back their shorts for a loss, and the bulls will buy as well.
ZH: 每当筑顶失败（注：继续创新高），空头就会放弃， 他们买入止损；同时多头会买入做多
21:11 - 21:14
EN: The bears who sell for any reason, they’re giving up.
ZH: 不管空头在哪里入场，现在都放弃了
21:14 - 21:17
EN: The bears who sell, they ultimately give up.
ZH: 做空的空头，最终止损离场
21:17 - 21:22
EN: The bears who sold this top, if they’re still holding short, they give up.
ZH: 在这个双顶做空的空头，如果仍然持有的话，会在这里放弃
21:22 - 21:26
EN: The bears who sold this top, it breaks above their stop, they give up.
ZH: 在这里做空的空头，市场上涨打掉了他们的止损，他们放弃了
21:29 - 21:31
EN: The bulls know the bears are going to give up,
ZH: 多头知道空头会在创新高时放弃，
21:32 - 21:38
EN: and therefore the bulls will buy looking for some kind
ZH: 所以他们买入做多，预期市场会涨到某个MM目标位， 比如把这个震荡区间的高度往上翻一倍
21:34 - 21:38
EN: of a Measured Move up based upon the height of the top.
ZH: 所以他们买入做多，预期市场会涨到某个MM目标位， 比如把这个震荡区间的高度往上翻一倍
Slide 017
Time: 21:40
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 018
Time: 21:45
Bilingual Transcript
21:45 - 21:49
EN: Every Trading Range is a bull flag when you’re in a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中，每个震荡区间都是牛旗
21:49 - 21:54
EN: If enough bars form, then the probability gets close to 50/50,
ZH: 如果持续了很长时间，那么概率变得接近50对50
21:55 - 21:58
EN: but in general you have to assume that if the market’s
ZH: 但通常来说，如果市场处于宽上涨通道，你就必须假设：
21:58 - 22:05
EN: in a Broad Bull Channel, every one of those Trading Ranges
ZH: 每个震荡区间都更有可能继续上涨，而不是反转下跌
22:01 - 22:05
EN: is more likely to continue up than to reverse down.
ZH: 每个震荡区间都更有可能继续上涨，而不是反转下跌
Slide 019
Time: 22:06
Bilingual Transcript
22:08 - 22:10
EN: Here we have six Trading Ranges.
ZH: 这里一共有6个震荡区间
22:10 - 22:14
EN: Different ways to draw them, but I chose to draw them this way.
ZH: 有不同的画法，我选择这样标记
22:21 - 22:25
EN: Every one of the Trading Ranges is either a bull flag
ZH: 每个震荡区间要么是牛旗，或者至少包含牛旗
22:24 - 22:31
EN: or it contains a bull flag, and the bear breakout below the bull flag
ZH: 每个震荡区间要么是牛旗，或者至少包含牛旗 向下跌破牛旗的尝试大概率会失败，然后上涨趋势恢复
22:28 - 22:31
EN: is probably going to reverse and the bull trend will probably continue
ZH: 向下跌破牛旗的尝试大概率会失败，然后上涨趋势恢复
22:31 - 22:37
EN: because trends have inertia, which means they tend to resist change,
ZH: 因为趋势具有惯性，它们抗拒变化
22:37 - 22:40
EN: and that means that they tend to continue up.
ZH: 也就是说趋势往往会继续上涨
22:44 - 22:47
EN: A breakout above a bear channel, and we have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 向上突破了下降趋势线，然后有一个双底
22:47 - 22:50
EN: Double Bottom bull flag within the Trading Range.
ZH: 它是震荡区间内的双底牛旗
22:52 - 22:57
EN: If you want, you can call this a Triangle, and the bulls got a breakout.
ZH: 你也可以说它是三角形，然后多头向上突破
22:58 - 23:00
EN: A Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 楔形牛旗
23:00 - 23:03
EN: We tried to reverse up, tried to reverse up again here,
ZH: 尝试恢复上涨，这里再次尝试恢复上涨
23:03 - 23:07
EN: trying to reverse up again a third time, and that makes it a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 现在是第3次尝试恢复上涨，所以是楔形牛旗
23:10 - 23:11
EN: Double Bottom.
ZH: 双底
23:13 - 23:14
EN: Another Wedge bear channel.
ZH: 又一个楔形下降通道
23:14 - 23:18
EN: Every Wedge bear channel is a bull flag when you’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势中，每个楔形下降通道都是牛旗
23:21 - 23:24
EN: Failed breakout below the bottom of the Trading Range, maybe.
ZH: 向下跌破震荡区间，但大概率是失败的
23:24 - 23:27
EN: We don’t know yet.
ZH: 但目前还不知道后续的行情是什么样
23:25 - 23:27
EN: We don’t know what the bars to the right look like.
ZH: 但目前还不知道后续的行情是什么样
Slide 020
Time: 23:30
Bilingual Transcript
23:35 - 23:38
EN: Again, because the market’s clearly in a trend,
ZH: 再讲一遍，因为市场显然处于上涨趋势
23:38 - 23:40
EN: even though it’s in BreakOut Mode,
ZH: 所以就算是突破模式
23:40 - 23:43
EN: the odds are always going to slightly favor the bulls
ZH: 向上突破的概率总是略微更高一些
23:43 - 23:46
EN: - sometimes greatly favor the bulls if the Trading Range is brief.
ZH: 震荡的时间越短，多头的优势就越大
23:47 - 23:50
EN: As long as it continues to make Higher Lows and Higher Highs,
ZH: 只要低点和高点都继续抬高
23:50 - 23:52
EN: it’s still in a bull trend.
ZH: 那就仍然是上涨趋势
23:55 - 24:02
EN: Easier for the bulls to make money than it is for the bears
ZH: 做多赚钱比做空容易，这就是上涨趋势的特点
23:58 - 24:02
EN: to make money, and that’s because it’s in a bull trend.
ZH: 做多赚钱比做空容易，这就是上涨趋势的特点
24:02 - 24:08
EN: It’s more likely to go up than down, and bears making money
ZH: 更有可能上涨，而不是下跌， 所以做空最多只能剥头皮
24:06 - 24:08
EN: are only making a little bit of money.
ZH: 更有可能上涨，而不是下跌， 所以做空最多只能剥头皮
24:09 - 24:12
EN: Some of the bulls who are buying, they’re buying down here
ZH: 而一些多头，他们在这里就买入了，
24:12 - 24:16
EN: and they’re riding it all the way up, and they have a huge swing profit.
ZH: 然后一路坚定持有，最终赚到了巨大的波段利润
24:16 - 24:20
EN: The best the bears can get is an occasional brief swing down.
ZH: 空头最多赚到一个短暂的回调
24:27 - 24:30
EN: A day trader is going to trade each one of these days individually.
ZH: 日内交易者每天都是单独交易的
24:31 - 24:38
EN: Here we have a bear trend day in a bigger bull trend,
ZH: 总体是一个很大的上涨趋势，这一天是下降趋势日， 你必须押注这只是一次回调
24:34 - 24:38
EN: but it’s still a bear trend day, and you have to bet
ZH: 总体是一个很大的上涨趋势，这一天是下降趋势日， 你必须押注这只是一次回调
24:36 - 24:38
EN: it’s going to be a bull flag.
ZH: 总体是一个很大的上涨趋势，这一天是下降趋势日， 你必须押注这只是一次回调
24:38 - 24:40
EN: But if you’re a day trader, you’re going to be selling
ZH: 但如果做日内交易，你会在5分钟图上做空
24:40 - 24:44
EN: because the 5-minute chart during this day is in a bear trend.
ZH: 因为这一天的5分钟图是强下降趋势
24:49 - 24:54
EN: This is a Broad Bull Channel, and here we have
ZH: 宽上涨通道，这里加速向上突破了
Slide 021
Time: 24:50
Bilingual Transcript
24:52 - 24:54
EN: a bull breakout above the bull channel.
ZH: 宽上涨通道，这里加速向上突破了
24:54 - 25:00
EN: However, 75% of the time if you get a breakout
ZH: 然而，75%的时间里，如果市场尝试加速突破上涨通道的上沿， 突破会（在5根K线内）失败
24:58 - 25:00
EN: above a bull channel, it’s going to fail.
ZH: 然而，75%的时间里，如果市场尝试加速突破上涨通道的上沿， 突破会（在5根K线内）失败
25:01 - 25:04
EN: This is the 25% of the time when it does not.
ZH: 这个属于25%的成功案例
25:04 - 25:07
EN: You have a strong breakout above a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 强势地向上突破了宽上涨通道
25:07 - 25:09
EN: You have a pullback and then you have another channel,
ZH: 回调之后，进入了新的上涨通道
25:09 - 25:12
EN: and then eventually it evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后最终变成震荡区间
25:12 - 25:15
EN: The market cycle starts over with a strong breakout.
ZH: 市场周期从强势的突破开始——
25:15 - 25:19
EN: So breakout, pullback, channel, and then Trading Range.
ZH: 突破，回调，通道，然后变成区间
25:32 - 25:38
EN: The market was trying to reverse repeatedly, and here we broke out strongly
ZH: 市场反复尝试反转下跌，但最终强势地向上突破了
25:38 - 25:42
EN: and the character of the market changed from a bull channel
ZH: 这个上涨趋势大部分时候应该变成震荡区间，
25:42 - 25:44
EN: - which should have evolved into a Trading Range
25:44 - 25:51
EN: - to a new bull breakout, and therefore the market’s
ZH: 但突破让市场进入了新的周期，所以大概率会涨到某个MM目标位
25:48 - 25:51
EN: probably going to get some kind of a Measured Move up.
ZH: 但突破让市场进入了新的周期，所以大概率会涨到某个MM目标位
25:55 - 25:57
EN: And it’s a breakout again.
ZH: 再讲一下这个突破
25:57 - 26:00
EN: Normally a bull channel evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 通常上涨通道会变成震荡区间
26:00 - 26:02
EN: 25% of the time you get a breakout,
ZH: 只有25%的时候突破会成功
26:03 - 26:05
EN: and you trade it as you would any other breakout.
ZH: 就像交易其它突破一样去交易它
26:05 - 26:07
EN: The market cycle is starting over.
ZH: 市场周期重新开始
Slide 022
Time: 26:10
Bilingual Transcript
26:12 - 26:15
EN: Every channel eventually evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 每个通道最终都会演变成震荡区间
26:15 - 26:18
EN: Sometimes a very big range, but still a Trading Range.
ZH: 只不过有时候会变成很大的区间
Slide 023
Time: 26:19
Bilingual Transcript
26:23 - 26:27
EN: This is a 120-minute Emini chart, Globex market.
ZH: 这是ES的120分钟，包含电子时段 （注：即包含盘前、盘后的行情，ES每天交易23个小时）
26:30 - 26:31
EN: We have a channel here.
ZH: 这里有一个通道
26:31 - 26:33
EN: We have a bigger channel here.
ZH: 这里有一个更大的通道
26:33 - 26:35
EN: Nothing lasts forever.
ZH: 没有什么是永恒的
26:35 - 26:38
EN: Eventually everything evolves into something else.
ZH: 市场周期最终一定会变化
26:38 - 26:47
EN: Channels usually evolve into Trading Ranges, which means bull channels 75%
ZH: 通道往往会演变成震荡区间， 也就是说75%的上涨通道都会向下跌破，进入下跌波段
26:43 - 26:47
EN: of the time have a bear breakout and then a bear swing,
ZH: 通道往往会演变成震荡区间， 也就是说75%的上涨通道都会向下跌破，进入下跌波段
26:47 - 26:50
EN: and the entire chart ends up as a big Trading Range.
ZH: 最终整张图看起来是一个巨大的震荡区间
26:56 - 27:03
EN: Only 25% chance you’re going to get a successful bull breakout
ZH: 只有25%的概率，加速向上突破能成功，然后市场周期重新开始
26:59 - 27:03
EN: above a bull channel and then start the market cycle over again.
ZH: 只有25%的概率，加速向上突破能成功，然后市场周期重新开始
27:09 - 27:17
EN: 75% chance a bull breakout above the channel is going to fail
ZH: 75%的概率加速突破会失败，最终反转进入下降通道
27:14 - 27:17
EN: and eventually the market will have a bear channel
ZH: 75%的概率加速突破会失败，最终反转进入下降通道
27:17 - 27:20
EN: and usually forms a large Trading Range.
ZH: 然后变成一个大的震荡区间
27:28 - 27:31
EN: Once the market starts falling below major Higher Lows,
ZH: 一旦市场开始跌破重要的低点
27:32 - 27:35
EN: like here, then it’s no longer a bull trend.
ZH: 比如这里，那么它就不再是上涨趋势
27:35 - 27:37
EN: It’s either a bear trend or a big Trading Range.
ZH: 此时要么是下降趋势，要么是大的震荡区间
27:38 - 27:40
EN: As long as it keeps making major Higher Lows,
ZH: 只要重要的低点继续抬高
27:40 - 27:43
EN: it’s either a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么就仍然是上涨趋势，或震荡区间
Slide 024
Time: 27:52
Bilingual Transcript
27:53 - 27:55
EN: I began by talking about the buy zone.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲解了买入区域
27:55 - 28:03
EN: When the market’s in a bull trend, you try to buy a pullback
ZH: 当市场处于上涨趋势，多头会在回调到中间三分之一的时候买入
27:58 - 28:03
EN: to the middle third of the prior rally, the prior leg up.
ZH: 当市场处于上涨趋势，多头会在回调到中间三分之一的时候买入
28:03 - 28:10
EN: Bulls tend to take profits above the prior high,
ZH: 多头往往会在前期高点上方卖出止盈， 同时空头会在那里做空剥头皮
28:07 - 28:10
EN: above the top of the bull trend, and bears will scalp up there.
ZH: 多头往往会在前期高点上方卖出止盈， 同时空头会在那里做空剥头皮
28:11 - 28:20
EN: 50% pullbacks are important because if the market retraces 50%
ZH: 50%回调很重要，因为如果多头在50%回调时买入的话
28:16 - 28:20
EN: of the prior bull leg, a trader buying at that instant
ZH: 50%回调很重要，因为如果多头在50%回调时买入的话
28:20 - 28:24
EN: has a higher probability of a new high than he does
ZH: 涨回到前期高点的概率更高
28:24 - 28:27
EN: of the market falling below the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 而不是先跌破起涨点
28:27 - 28:31
EN: Risk and reward are equal, but probability favors the bulls,
ZH: 风险和利润差不多，但做多的胜率更高
28:31 - 28:35
EN: and therefore buying a 50% pullback in a bull trend has good math.
ZH: 所以在上涨趋势中，在50%回调时买入在数学上具有优势
28:37 - 28:42
EN: Every Trading Range in a broad bull trend is a bull flag.
ZH: 宽上涨通道中，每个震荡区间都是牛旗
28:42 - 28:50
EN: The odds are the market will continue higher because the market
ZH: 继续上涨的概率很高，因为市场处于上涨趋势， 那些震荡区间只是上涨趋势的一部分
28:45 - 28:50
EN: is in a bull trend and those Trading Ranges are just part of the bull trend.
ZH: 继续上涨的概率很高，因为市场处于上涨趋势， 那些震荡区间只是上涨趋势的一部分
28:50 - 28:55
EN: Eventually every channel evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终每个通道都会演变成震荡区间
28:59 - 29:00
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
29:00 - 29:02
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
29:03 - 29:06
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on trading Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 如何交易宽上涨通道的5节课，到这里就全部讲完了