al-brooks-course
34A - Actual Risk
Raw transcript and slide notes for 34A - Actual Risk.
Overview
- Slides: 15
- Transcript segments: 310
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:09
EN: This is the first of two videos on Actual Risk.
ZH: 接下来的两节课我们来讲实际风险
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:20
EN: I want to begin by talking a little bit about the Trader’s Equation
ZH: 首先我会再讲一讲数学期望， 以及我所说的“风险”到底是什么意思
00:17 - 00:20
EN: and what I mean by risk when I talk about risk and reward.
ZH: 首先我会再讲一讲数学期望， 以及我所说的“风险”到底是什么意思
00:21 - 00:26
EN: In particular, I want to talk about Actual Risk in contrast to Initial Risk.
ZH: 我会特别讲到实际风险与初始风险的对比
Slide 002
Time: 00:28
Bilingual Transcript
00:35 - 00:45
EN: A trader should only take a trade if he believes the probability of success times
ZH: 只有交易者认为数学期望大于0时，才应该进行交易 （即【成功概率 _ 潜在利润】 大于 【失败概率 _ 风险】）
00:40 - 00:45
EN: the potential reward is greater than the probability of failure times the risk.
ZH: 只有交易者认为数学期望大于0时，才应该进行交易 （即【成功概率 _ 潜在利润】 大于 【失败概率 _ 风险】）
00:45 - 00:47
EN: That is the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 这就是数学期望
00:53 - 00:56
EN: For example, we have a bull trend, about a 50% pullback,
ZH: 例如，有一个上涨趋势，大约50%回调
00:56 - 01:00
EN: a slightly Higher Low, a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 低点略微抬高，高2牛旗
01:00 - 01:05
EN: One leg down, pullback, second leg down, and a decent looking buy signal bar.
ZH: 第1段下跌（高1），反弹，第2段下跌（高2） 有不错的做多信号K线
01:06 - 01:08
EN: It’s a very deep pullback.
ZH: 这是一个非常深的回调
01:08 - 01:12
EN: We have 4 consecutive bear bars, but it held above the bottom
ZH: 有连续4根阴线，但价格保持在多头突破的起涨点上方
01:11 - 01:12
EN: of the bull breakout right here
ZH: 有连续4根阴线，但价格保持在多头突破的起涨点上方
01:12 - 01:16
EN: and above the bottom of the bull trend right here.
ZH: 当然也在上涨趋势的起涨点上方
01:18 - 01:22
EN: It’s reasonable to put a stop either below the bottom of the bull breakout,
ZH: 把止损放在多头突破的起点下方是合理的
01:22 - 01:26
EN: if this is in fact a bull trend, the market should not fall below this low.
ZH: 如果这确实是一个上涨趋势，市场就不应该跌破这个低点
01:26 - 01:31
EN: It’s also reasonable to put a stop below the bottom of the bull trend down here.
ZH: 把止损放在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方也是合理的
01:38 - 01:42
EN: Let’s say you did buy above the high of this buy signal bar
ZH: 假设你在这个做多信号K线的高点上方挂突破买单
01:42 - 01:43
EN: and you got filled right here,
ZH: 订单在这里成交了
01:43 - 01:47
EN: and you put your stop below the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 然后你把止损放在多头突破的起涨点下方
01:48 - 01:52
EN: Your risk is from your entry price, just a little bit above the high of this bar,
ZH: 你的初始风险，是从你的入场价格，也就是这根K线的高点上方
01:52 - 01:57
EN: down to your stop, which is just a little bit below the bottom of this low.
ZH: 到止损的位置，也就是这个低点下方
01:58 - 02:00
EN: This is how much you’re risking initially.
ZH: 这是你初始承担的风险
02:01 - 02:03
EN: Different traders have different stops.
ZH: 不同的交易者有不同的止损位置
02:03 - 02:12
EN: Some traders might have a stop down here; other traders might use a stop
ZH: 一些交易者可能会把止损放在这里 另一些交易者可能会使用固定金额止损， 比如10或20个ticks（或pips）
02:07 - 02:12
EN: based upon money – for example, 10 or 20 pips, or 10 or 20 ticks.
ZH: 另一些交易者可能会使用固定金额止损， 比如10或20个ticks（或pips）
02:13 - 02:18
EN: Every trader has a different idea of where his stop should be,
ZH: 每个交易者对止损位置都有不同的看法
02:19 - 02:23
EN: and therefore there’s no widespread agreement on what the Initial Risk is.
ZH: 因此初始风险并不是全都一样的
02:24 - 02:26
EN: When you take this buy above the high of this bar,
ZH: 在这根K线高点上方买入之后，
02:26 - 02:29
EN: some traders will get out below this bar,
ZH: 一些人会在它的下方离场
02:29 - 02:32
EN: some traders will get out below this bar, this bar, or this bar.
ZH: 一些人会在这根K线，或这根K线的下方离场
02:32 - 02:34
EN: Other traders will use money stops.
ZH: 一些交易者会使用固定金额止损
02:34 - 02:37
EN: There’s no agreement on what the Initial Risk is.
ZH: 并不是每个人的初始风险都一样
02:37 - 02:41
EN: Each trader has his own idea of how much he’s willing to risk initially.
ZH: 每个交易者愿意承担的风险大小都不同
Slide 003
Time: 02:45
Bilingual Transcript
02:51 - 02:53
EN: Based upon what you’re willing to risk,
ZH: 基于你的风险承受能力
02:53 - 02:57
EN: you can come up with a reasonable profit target for the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 你可以根据数学期望，来制定一个合理的利润目标
02:57 - 03:01
EN: You need the math to support the idea that this is a good trade.
ZH: 一个好的交易机会，一定是有数学作为支撑的
03:01 - 03:11
EN: You need, again, the probability of making money times the size
ZH: 你的赚钱概率利润，必须大于亏损概率风险
03:05 - 03:11
EN: of your profit target has to be greater
ZH: 你的赚钱概率利润，必须大于亏损概率风险
03:08 - 03:11
EN: than the probability of losing money times the size of your risk.
ZH: 你的赚钱概率利润，必须大于亏损概率风险
03:16 - 03:21
EN: Is the probability of making money 60% or higher here?
ZH: 这里赚钱的胜率有60%或更高吗？
03:21 - 03:22
EN: It might not be.
ZH: 好像没有
03:22 - 03:23
EN: It’s probably less than that.
ZH: 没有60%这么高
03:24 - 03:31
EN: In general, if ever you are uncertain that the probability is less than 60%,
ZH: 通常来说，如果你不确定胜率是否大于60% （注：大部分机会的胜率在40~60%之间）
03:31 - 03:35
EN: you should go for a reward that is at least twice your risk.
ZH: 你就应该追求至少两倍于风险的利润
03:35 - 03:38
EN: Here’s your risk, the size of this brown box,
ZH: 这个棕色框框的高度，就是你的风险
03:38 - 03:40
EN: just above the high of this bar down to your stop.
ZH: 从这根K线的高点上方，到止损的距离
03:43 - 03:45
EN: This is two times your risk.
ZH: 这是风险的两倍
03:45 - 03:48
EN: If you take this buy and put your stop down here
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，把止损放在这里
03:48 - 03:51
EN: and exit with a profit up here, the math is good.
ZH: 然后在这里止盈离场，在数学上是合理的
03:51 - 03:54
EN: The probability certainly is better than 40%.
ZH: 这里的胜率显然高于40%
03:54 - 03:59
EN: As long as the probability of reaching this goal before hitting your stop
ZH: 只要先达到这个目标位而不是先打掉止损的概率不低于40%
03:59 - 04:03
EN: is at least 40%, it’s reasonable to exit right there.
ZH: 那么在两倍止损距离的地方止盈就是合理的
04:03 - 04:06
EN: It would result in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 因为你的数学期望是正的
04:08 - 04:15
EN: For any reasonable trade, it’s always good to exit at two times your risk.
ZH: 对于任何合理的交易机会，在两倍风险距离止盈离场都是ok的
04:15 - 04:17
EN: The math is always good.
ZH: 因为在数学上合理
04:17 - 04:20
EN: It always results in a positive Trader’s Equation, so in general,
ZH: 这么做的数学期望总是为正，所以通常来说，
04:20 - 04:23
EN: if you’re not certain where you should take profits,
ZH: 如果你不确定应该在哪里止盈，
04:23 - 04:26
EN: try to take profits at two times your Initial Risk.
ZH: 可以尝试把目标放在初始风险的两倍距离
04:26 - 04:30
EN: That always results in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 这样做的数学期望肯定是正的
04:34 - 04:38
EN: For most traders, it’s reasonable to exit at two times your Initial Risk.
ZH: 对于大多数交易者来说，在两倍初始风险的地方离场是合理的
04:38 - 04:41
EN: You bought above here, here’s your Initial Risk.
ZH: 你在它的上方买入，这是你的初始风险
04:41 - 04:44
EN: If you try to exit at two times your Initial Risk,
ZH: 如果你尝试在两倍初始风险的地方离场
04:44 - 04:49
EN: the Trader’s Equation will be positive because the probability is probably
ZH: 这笔交易的数学期望就大于0，
04:49 - 04:56
EN: at least 40% that it’ll go up here before it goes down here,
ZH: 因为你是在上涨趋势的回调买入， 所以先上涨到这里，而不是先下跌的概率至少有40%
04:53 - 04:56
EN: given that you’re buying a pullback in a bull trend.
ZH: 因为你是在上涨趋势的回调买入， 所以先上涨到这里，而不是先下跌的概率至少有40%
Slide 004
Time: 05:00
Bilingual Transcript
05:03 - 05:06
EN: As I said, there are many choices for an initial stop,
ZH: 正如之前所说，初始止损有很多选择
05:06 - 05:11
EN: and therefore there are many possible Initial Risks
ZH: 根据每个交易者的选择，初始止损都不一样
05:09 - 05:11
EN: depending on the trader and which stop he chooses.
ZH: 根据每个交易者的选择，初始止损都不一样
05:17 - 05:20
EN: For example, he could put a stop below the buy signal bar,
ZH: 例如，他可以将止损放在做多信号K线的下方
05:20 - 05:23
EN: below the bottom of the bull breakout, below this Higher Low
ZH: 放在多头突破的起涨点下方，放在这个突破回调的低点下方
05:23 - 05:26
EN: after this breakout, or below the entire bull trend.
ZH: 或者放在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
05:26 - 05:34
EN: Those are all reasonable price action stops
ZH: 这些都是合理的价格行为止损—— 根据价格行为，把止损放在前期某个重要低点的下方
05:30 - 05:34
EN: - putting a stop based upon the price action, below prior lows, for example.
ZH: 这些都是合理的价格行为止损—— 根据价格行为，把止损放在前期某个重要低点的下方
05:36 - 05:38
EN: Other traders will use a stop based upon a Measured Move.
ZH: 其他交易者会根据MM目标位来设置止损
05:38 - 05:42
EN: For example, the height of this Sell Climax, a Measured Move down.
ZH: 例如，把这个抛售高潮的高度往下翻一倍
05:42 - 05:47
EN: It should not fall below this low if you’re going to have profitable trade.
ZH: 如果跌破这个低点，那么说明多头就没有机会赚钱了
05:47 - 05:51
EN: Some traders will use that as a price action stop,
ZH: 一些交易者会根据MM目标位，把初始止损放在那里，
05:50 - 05:51
EN: a stop based upon a Measured Move.
ZH: 一些交易者会根据MM目标位，把初始止损放在那里，
05:51 - 05:55
EN: From this high to that low, Measured Move down, stop just below.
ZH: 从这个高点到那个低点，往下翻一倍，把止损放在它的下方
05:55 - 06:01
EN: Or from this high to that low and a stop just below the Measured Move projection.
ZH: 或者从这个高点到那个低点，往下翻一倍，把止损放在它的下方
06:04 - 06:08
EN: Other traders like money stops, risking a certain amount of money,
ZH: 其他交易者喜欢用固定金额止损， 设置一定数量的金额，
06:08 - 06:10
EN: a certain number of ticks, a certain number of pips.
ZH: 一定数量的ticks或pips
06:10 - 06:14
EN: For example, this might be 20 pips or 20 ticks below your entry price.
ZH: 例如，把止损放在入场价格下方20个ticks或pips
06:15 - 06:20
EN: All of these are reasonable stops, and different traders will use different stops,
ZH: 所有这些都是合理的，不同的交易者会使用不同的止损
06:20 - 06:24
EN: and therefore everyone has a different Initial Risk.
ZH: 所以每个人的初始风险都不一样
06:24 - 06:27
EN: The trader who bought above the high of this bar
ZH: 同样都是在这根K线高点上方买入
06:27 - 06:29
EN: and used a stop here, that’s his Initial Risk.
ZH: 如果把止损放在这里，初始风险就只有一点点
06:29 - 06:34
EN: The trader who has a stop below here, his Initial Risk is all the way down here.
ZH: 把止损放在这里的交易者，初始风险有这么大
Slide 005
Time: 06:40
Bilingual Transcript
06:40 - 06:43
EN: We have a bull breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 大阳线突破，而且有跟随K线
06:43 - 06:46
EN: Now the probability is we’re going at least a little bit higher.
ZH: 现在的大概率至少会再上涨一些
06:49 - 06:51
EN: Here we have a strong breakout.
ZH: 再次强势突破
06:51 - 06:55
EN: We have 5 consecutive bull bars and a close above the prior high.
ZH: 连续5根阳线，而且收盘高于前期的高点
07:01 - 07:06
EN: Once you see this or this, traders will raise their initial stop
ZH: 一旦看到这个或这个，交易者就会把他们的初始止损移动到
07:06 - 07:08
EN: to below the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 最近一个重要的低点
07:08 - 07:10
EN: Once we get a breakout to a new high,
ZH: 在突破创新高之后，
07:10 - 07:13
EN: it’s a bull trend as long as it remains above this low.
ZH: 只要保持在这个低点上方，上涨趋势就仍然成立
07:14 - 07:19
EN: If it falls below this low, the market then is either in a Trading Range
ZH: 如果跌破这个低点，市场则要么出于震荡区间
07:19 - 07:23
EN: or in a bear trend, in which case you don’t want to be long here
ZH: 要么反转变成下降趋势； 在那种情况下，你不应该在这里做多
07:23 - 07:27
EN: because you bought this based upon the premise that you’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 因为你在这里买入的前提是：这是一个上涨趋势
07:28 - 07:33
EN: All of these traders who have stops down here, once the market gets here or here,
ZH: 那些把初始止损放在下方的交易者， 一旦市场涨到这里或这里
07:34 - 07:37
EN: will tighten their stop to just below the low of this bar.
ZH: 他们就会把止损抬高到这根K线的低点下方
07:45 - 07:54
EN: At this point, everyone agrees where the stop should be
ZH: 此时，每个人都同意止损应该在最近一个重要低点的下方 （注：一开始并不确定会不会继续回调）
07:49 - 07:54
EN: - below the most recent major Higher Low – and now everyone sees
ZH: 此时，每个人都同意止损应该在最近一个重要低点的下方 （注：一开始并不确定会不会继续回调）
07:54 - 07:57
EN: how big the deepest pullback was after the entry.
ZH: 因为每个人现在都确认了最深的回调幅度是多少 （注：但是既然突破创新高，就说明之前的回调已经结束了）
07:57 - 08:06
EN: If you bought right here above this buy signal bar, the deepest pullback
ZH: 如果你在这个做多信号K线的上方买入 最深的回调可能是到这根K线的低点， 可能是到这根K线的低点
08:02 - 08:06
EN: was maybe to the low of this bar, maybe to the low of this bar.
ZH: 最深的回调可能是到这根K线的低点， 可能是到这根K线的低点
Slide 006
Time: 08:10
Bilingual Transcript
08:14 - 08:17
EN: Once the market is up here, you can look back and say,
ZH: 一旦市场涨到了这里，你回过头看 （注：用上帝视角看）
08:17 - 08:23
EN: where did I have to have my stop to minimize my risk and not being stopped out?
ZH: 最小可以把止损放在哪里，就可以不用被打掉？
08:23 - 08:29
EN: Where would have been the absolute best stop
ZH: 从事后来看，最完美的止损应该放在哪里？
08:26 - 08:29
EN: on this trade in hindsight, looking back?
ZH: 从事后来看，最完美的止损应该放在哪里？
08:33 - 08:38
EN: Where is the smallest stop that I could’ve used and not be stopped out?
ZH: 最小可以把止损放在哪里，就可以不用被打掉？
08:42 - 08:45
EN: You don’t know that until the market has gone your way.
ZH: 你在开仓的时候是不知道的， 直到市场突破之后你才知道
Slide 007
Time: 08:50
Bilingual Transcript
08:50 - 08:53
EN: And that brings me into the topic of Actual Risk.
ZH: 这就引出了实际风险的话题
08:53 - 08:56
EN: How much did you really risk on the trade?
ZH: 你在这笔交易中实际上承担了多少风险？
Slide 008
Time: 08:57
Bilingual Transcript
09:02 - 09:05
EN: The bulls bought here above the high of this buy signal bar.
ZH: 多头在这个做多信号K线的高点上方买入
09:09 - 09:12
EN: You have a strong breakout here or all the way up here.
ZH: 市场强势突破，一路涨到这里
09:12 - 09:15
EN: At some point you’re going to raise your stop, but in any case,
ZH: 在某个时候你可以抬高你的止损，但无论如何，
09:15 - 09:17
EN: once you have a reasonably strong breakout,
ZH: 一旦出现了比较强势的突破
09:17 - 09:21
EN: you know how much money you had to risk to stay in the trade.
ZH: 你就知道了实际上你所承担的最大风险是多少
09:28 - 09:32
EN: When the market is here, if you entered right here above this bar,
ZH: 涨到这里之后——如果之前你在这根K线上方入场，
09:33 - 09:37
EN: the tightest stop that you could have used was right below the low of this bar.
ZH: 你本可以使用的最窄的止损，就在这根K线的低点下方 （注：开仓时并不知道）
09:37 - 09:44
EN: So the actual money that you risked on this trade was from your entry price
ZH: 所以你在这笔交易中实际承担的风险是： 从入场价格，到这个理论上的完美止损位
09:42 - 09:44
EN: to this theoretically perfect stop
ZH: 所以你在这笔交易中实际承担的风险是： 从入场价格，到这个理论上的完美止损位
09:44 - 09:49
EN: - which you did not know existed until the market went your way.
ZH: ——尽管你一开始并不知道，等突破后才知道这一点
09:51 - 09:55
EN: Once the market is here and you look back, this stop is probably
ZH: 当市场涨到这里之后，回过头去看，
09:55 - 10:00
EN: the tightest stop that you could have used
ZH: 这个是你可以使用的最小的止损 正好不会被打掉，可以让你继续持有
09:57 - 10:00
EN: that would’ve avoided you being stopped out of your trade.
ZH: 这个是你可以使用的最小的止损 正好不会被打掉，可以让你继续持有
10:06 - 10:10
EN: From your entry price to that stop just below the low of your entry bar,
ZH: 从你的入场价格，到这个入场K线低点下方的止损
10:10 - 10:13
EN: that is how much you actually had to risk on this trade.
ZH: 就是你在这笔交易中实际上承担的风险
10:13 - 10:16
EN: Your Initial Risk might’ve been here, it may’ve been here, it may’ve been here.
ZH: 你的初始风险可能在这里，可能在这里，也可能在这里
10:17 - 10:19
EN: Different traders use different stops,
ZH: 不同的交易者使用不同的止损方法
10:19 - 10:21
EN: and therefore their Initial Risk was different.
ZH: 因此他们的初始风险不同
10:21 - 10:24
EN: But every trader who bought above the high of this bar,
ZH: 但是，所有在这根K线高点上方买入的交易者
10:24 - 10:31
EN: at this point knew that his Actual Risk
ZH: 此时都知道，他的实际风险就在他的入场K线低点下方
10:28 - 10:31
EN: was just to below the low of his entry bar.
ZH: 此时都知道，他的实际风险就在他的入场K线低点下方
10:32 - 10:35
EN: All of the traders, no matter where their original stop was,
ZH: 所有交易者，无论他们的初始止损在哪里
10:35 - 10:40
EN: now know that they only had to risk this much in hindsight.
ZH: 现在都知道，实际上他们只承担了这一点点风险
Slide 009
Time: 10:42
Bilingual Transcript
10:46 - 10:48
EN: Here we have a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 这里是一个高2牛旗
10:48 - 10:49
EN: We have a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
10:49 - 10:52
EN: High 1 bull flag, a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 高1牛旗，一个高2牛旗
10:56 - 11:00
EN: A reasonable initial stop is below the bottom of the bull breakout,
ZH: 合理的初始止损在多头突破的起涨点下方
11:00 - 11:02
EN: maybe below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 或者在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
11:02 - 11:07
EN: Let’s say you put your initial stop here, below the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 假设你把初始止损放在多头突破的起涨点下方
11:10 - 11:16
EN: Then your risk was from above the high of the entry bar,
ZH: 那么你的风险是：从信号K线的高点上方——也就是你开仓的位置
11:14 - 11:19
EN: where you got long, down to your stop, just below the low of that bull bar.
ZH: 那么你的风险是：从信号K线的高点上方——也就是你开仓的位置 到你的止损——这个阳线的低点下方 （注：红色框框的高度）
11:24 - 11:29
EN: The market pulled back, did not quite reach your stop, and then it went your way.
ZH: 市场回调，没有打到你的止损，然后重新上涨
11:29 - 11:35
EN: However, once the market did this – a strong breakout above your entry price
ZH: 一旦市场像这样强势突破之后
11:36 - 11:39
EN: - you now have a good idea of what you actually had to risk to stay in the trade.
ZH: 你就知道你实际上承担了多少风险
11:46 - 11:49
EN: All you had to do was risk to below the low of this bar.
ZH: 你实际上承担的风险是到这根K线的低点
11:49 - 11:54
EN: If your stop was just a little bit below that bar,
ZH: 如果你的止损刚好放在那根K线的低点下方
11:54 - 11:57
EN: that’s all you needed to not have been stopped out.
ZH: 就不会被止损离场
11:58 - 12:00
EN: It’s less than your Initial Risk.
ZH: 它小于你的初始风险
12:00 - 12:05
EN: You did not know that this was the perfect stop until the market went your way,
ZH: 直到强势突破之前，你都无法知道这个完美的止损到底在哪里
12:05 - 12:09
EN: but once you were up here and you looked back, and you say,
ZH: 但是在突破之后，你回过头看的时候，
12:09 - 12:14
EN: what was the smallest stop that I could have used and not have been stopped out?
ZH: 最小可以把止损放在哪里，就可以不用被打掉？
12:14 - 12:18
EN: – it’s 1 tick or 1 pip below the low of this bar, so right here.
ZH: ——就在这里，在这根K线低点下方1个tick
12:18 - 12:20
EN: This is your Actual Risk.
ZH: 这就是你的实际风险 （注：用简单的话说，就是在盈利之前，最多一度先浮亏了多少钱）
12:20 - 12:23
EN: Your entry price to that theoretically perfect stop.
ZH: 从入场价，到那个理论上的完美的止损 （注：“完美的止损”这个表达方式可能会造成误解）
12:27 - 12:32
EN: Actual Risk, entry price to the perfect stop, and any trader
ZH: 实际风险——入场价格到完美止损的距离， （注：知道自己实际上冒了多少风险，而不是让你去预知“完美止损”在哪里）
12:32 - 12:41
EN: who bought here or anywhere through here, once the market is up here
ZH: 任何在这里，或这里某个地方买入的交易者， 当市场上涨创新高之后，就知道这是一个重要的低点
12:38 - 12:41
EN: he can look back and say this is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 当市场上涨创新高之后，就知道这是一个重要的低点
12:41 - 12:44
EN: His Actual Risk was to just below that low,
ZH: 他的实际风险就在那个低点下方
12:44 - 12:48
EN: and it doesn’t matter where he bought through here or anywhere in here.
ZH: 不管他的入场点是在这里，还是这里的某个地方
12:48 - 12:49
EN: Doesn’t matter where his stop was.
ZH: 不管他的初始止损放在哪里
12:49 - 12:56
EN: At this point, the Actual Risk for any of these bulls
ZH: 在这一时刻，所有这些多头的实际风险， 就是在这根K线的低点下方
12:52 - 12:56
EN: is just below the low of this bar.
ZH: 在这一时刻，所有这些多头的实际风险， 就是在这根K线的低点下方
Slide 010
Time: 13:00
Bilingual Transcript
13:02 - 13:03
EN: You have to get out at some time,
ZH: 你在某个时刻总归需要离场的
13:03 - 13:07
EN: so you have to have a logical plan to take profits.
ZH: 所以你必须要有一个合理的止盈计划
13:11 - 13:14
EN: As I said, there are many choices for an initial stop,
ZH: 就像之前所说，初始止损有很多选择，
13:14 - 13:19
EN: which generates the Initial Risk, and therefore there are many possible profit
ZH: 每个人的初始风险不同，如果都根据初始风险来制定目标，
13:19 - 13:24
EN: targets if you’re using Initial Risk to generate your profit target.
ZH: 就会产生很多个止盈的目标
13:28 - 13:32
EN: However, once the market starts to go strongly in your direction,
ZH: 然而，当市场强势地朝着你的方向突破之后，
13:32 - 13:35
EN: you know where the perfect stop had to be,
ZH: 你就知道完美的止损在哪里 （注：不用太在意“完美的止损”这个说法）
13:35 - 13:37
EN: and therefore you know what your Actual Risk was.
ZH: 所以你就知道了你的实际风险是多少
13:37 - 13:41
EN: And that’s true for any trader who bought anywhere in here.
ZH: 对于所有在这里买入的交易者而言， 实际风险的位置都是真实的
13:41 - 13:44
EN: His Actual Risk was to just below the low of this bar.
ZH: 他们的实际风险就在这根K线的低点下方
13:44 - 13:47
EN: The bull who bought above this bar, this is his Actual Risk.
ZH: 在这根K线高点上方买入的多头，这是他的实际风险
13:52 - 13:57
EN: Computers often use Actual Risk to create profit targets.
ZH: 电脑程序经常根据实际风险来决定利润目标
13:57 - 14:00
EN: So for example, computers who bought above the high of this bull bar
ZH: 例如，计算机在这个阳线的高点上方买入
14:00 - 14:06
EN: for a High 2 bull flag, if they put a stop down here initially
ZH: 因为这是高2牛旗， 如果把初始止损放在这里，或这里，没有被打到
14:04 - 14:06
EN: or a stop down here, they did not get stopped out.
ZH: 因为这是高2牛旗， 如果把初始止损放在这里，或这里，没有被打到
14:06 - 14:10
EN: They held long despite this pullback below their entry price.
ZH: 尽管一度有回调，但它仍然继续持有
14:10 - 14:15
EN: Once the market started to go their way, they would generate profit targets,
ZH: 一旦市场开始恢复上涨，电脑程序就会开始生成利润目标
14:15 - 14:17
EN: many of them using Actual Risk.
ZH: 其中很多程序就根据实际风险（去生成目标）
14:17 - 14:20
EN: Their Actual Risk is the height of this blue box down
ZH: 它们的实际风险就是这个蓝色框框的高度
14:20 - 14:27
EN: to where the perfect stop was, and therefore one times Actual Risk
ZH: 把这个高度向上平移，一倍实际风险的目标就在这里
14:24 - 14:27
EN: is the top of this blue box right there.
ZH: 把这个高度向上平移，一倍实际风险的目标就在这里
14:32 - 14:37
EN: Since they’re buying in a reasonably good bull trend, many of them will get out
ZH: 因为它们是在一个相当不错的上涨趋势中买入的
14:37 - 14:40
EN: with a profit that is equal to one times their Actual Risk.
ZH: 所以很多程序会在一倍实际风险的地方离场
14:41 - 14:44
EN: It was a reasonably high probability trade when they put it on.
ZH: 在开仓的时候，这是一笔高胜率交易
14:44 - 14:48
EN: It became lower probability after this pullback.
ZH: 在回调之后，胜率变低 （注：趋势变弱，所以胜率变低）
14:48 - 14:51
EN: Most traders would be happy to take at least partial profits
ZH: 因此当市场涨到一倍实际风险的时候，
14:51 - 14:55
EN: once the market went as far as they actually had to risk on the trade.
ZH: 大多数交易者已经感到满足，止盈至少一部分仓位
14:55 - 14:56
EN: And you can see what happened
ZH: 可以看到发生了什么
14:56 - 14:59
EN: when it got up to one times Actual Risk; it sold off.
ZH: 当市场涨到一倍实际风险之后，开始回调了
14:59 - 15:02
EN: When it got up there again, it sold off again.
ZH: 再次涨到那里，又下跌
15:02 - 15:08
EN: That tells you that a lot of computers use
ZH: 这就说明很多电脑程序会根据实际风险来决定利润目标
15:05 - 15:08
EN: Actual Risk to generate a profit target.
ZH: 这就说明很多电脑程序会根据实际风险来决定利润目标
Slide 011
Time: 15:10
Bilingual Transcript
15:18 - 15:24
EN: Whenever you’re taking a trade where the probability is high – in other words,
ZH: 每当你做一笔高胜率的交易——也就是说， 你很确定你可以赚钱
15:22 - 15:24
EN: you’re fairly certain you’re going to make money,
ZH: 每当你做一笔高胜率的交易——也就是说， 你很确定你可以赚钱
15:24 - 15:28
EN: the probability is at least 60%, otherwise you would not be certain
ZH: 概率至少是60%，否则你不会感到确定
15:29 - 15:36
EN: - the math is always okay to go for a profit target
ZH: 此时去追求一倍实际风险的利润，是合理的做法
15:32 - 15:36
EN: that’s equal to one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 此时去追求一倍实际风险的利润，是合理的做法
15:37 - 15:41
EN: However, it’s always good to go for two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 任何情况下（胜率40~60%） 追求两倍实际盈亏比总是一个好的做法
15:41 - 15:42
EN: Sometimes it’s unrealistic.
ZH: 有时两倍并不现实
15:42 - 15:46
EN: If you bought here and you were disappointed by the size of this pullback,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，然后对这么深的回调感到失望
15:46 - 15:50
EN: a lot of traders would simply try to exit at one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 许多交易者会直接在一倍实际风险的地方离场
15:51 - 15:57
EN: On any trade, the math is always good to go for a profit of two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 在任何交易中，追求两倍实际风险的利润， 这么做在数学上总归是合理的
16:03 - 16:06
EN: Here we have profit-taking at one times the Actual Risk,
ZH: 这里，在一倍实际风险的地方出现了回调
16:06 - 16:09
EN: and that tells you that computers are taking profits there,
ZH: 说明有电脑程序在那里止盈
16:09 - 16:12
EN: and they took them again up here.
ZH: 它们在这里再次止盈
16:12 - 16:19
EN: And that tells you that exiting at one times Actual Risk
ZH: 所以说明在高胜率的交易中， 追求一倍的实际盈亏比是合理的做法
16:15 - 16:19
EN: in a high probability trade is a reasonable thing to do.
ZH: 所以说明在高胜率的交易中， 追求一倍的实际盈亏比是合理的做法
16:26 - 16:30
EN: Profit targets lead to pullbacks,
ZH: 目标位止盈导致回调，
16:30 - 16:33
EN: and therefore they are resistance in a bull trend.
ZH: 因此上涨趋势中的目标位是阻力
16:34 - 16:37
EN: When the bulls take profits, the bulls are selling.
ZH: 多头在卖出止盈
16:37 - 16:38
EN: The bears are always selling.
ZH: 而空头总是在卖出
16:38 - 16:41
EN: The bears know where the profit targets are as well,
ZH: 空头也知道目标位在哪里
16:41 - 16:42
EN: and they’ll sell up here as well.
ZH: 所以他们也会在这里卖出
16:43 - 16:48
EN: In a bear trend, where you take profits in a bear trend creates support.
ZH: 下降趋势中，空头的目标位制造了支撑
16:48 - 16:50
EN: The bears buy back their shorts.
ZH: 空头买入回补
16:50 - 16:53
EN: The bulls know where the bears are buying back their shorts,
ZH: 多头知道空头会在哪里平仓
16:53 - 16:55
EN: and the bulls buy there as well.
ZH: 所以多头也会在那里买入
16:55 - 16:57
EN: You usually get some kind of a bounce.
ZH: 因此造成一定的反弹
17:02 - 17:03
EN: The bulls take profits here.
ZH: 多头在这里止盈
17:03 - 17:11
EN: The bears know the bulls will take profits there, so some traders will sell
ZH: 空头知道多头会在那里止盈， 所以他们会在多头止盈的地方卖出做空，剥头皮
17:08 - 17:11
EN: for a scalp at that profit-taking location for the bulls.
ZH: 空头知道多头会在那里止盈， 所以他们会在多头止盈的地方卖出做空，剥头皮
Slide 012
Time: 17:15
Bilingual Transcript
17:19 - 17:24
EN: Some of the bulls who bought here will buy more lower above a bull bar,
ZH: 一些多头在这里买入之后，会在下面的阳线上方买入更多
17:24 - 17:26
EN: so they’ll add to their position right here.
ZH: 也就是说他们会在这里加仓
17:28 - 17:33
EN: As long as they believe that the market is still Always In Long in a bull trend
ZH: 只要他们相信市场仍然处于上涨趋势，会继续上涨，
17:33 - 17:42
EN: and that it will go higher, they’ll continue to add on lower
ZH: 他们就会逢低加仓——尤其是在阳线上方加仓买入， 加仓的位置和初始入场价格之间要隔开一定的距离
17:36 - 17:42
EN: - especially above bull bars, as long as the second entry
ZH: 他们就会逢低加仓——尤其是在阳线上方加仓买入， 加仓的位置和初始入场价格之间要隔开一定的距离
17:39 - 17:42
EN: is at least the size of a scalp below the first entry.
ZH: 他们就会逢低加仓——尤其是在阳线上方加仓买入， 加仓的位置和初始入场价格之间要隔开一定的距离
17:47 - 17:51
EN: Many traders who bought here and bought more here,
ZH: 很多在这里买入，并逢低加仓的多头
17:52 - 17:57
EN: as long as the second entry is at least the size of a scalp below the first,
ZH: 加仓的位置距离初始入场价格至少有一笔剥头皮的空间
17:57 - 18:00
EN: they’ll take profits when the market gets back to their first entry.
ZH: 当市场回到初始入场价格时，他们会离场
18:00 - 18:04
EN: They get out breakeven at their first entry and then with a scalp
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分剥头皮小赚
18:03 - 18:08
EN: on their second entry, and you can see the hesitation
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分剥头皮小赚 所以市场在这个价格出现了犹豫 （注：因为一部分多头卖出止盈了）
18:06 - 18:08
EN: when the market got back to their first entry price.
ZH: 所以市场在这个价格出现了犹豫 （注：因为一部分多头卖出止盈了）
Slide 013
Time: 18:15
Bilingual Transcript
18:17 - 18:21
EN: When you look at any chart, 90% of the bars are in a channel
ZH: 在任何一张K线图上， 90%的K线都在通道或震荡区间中
18:21 - 18:26
EN: or a Trading Range, and that means the probability is not especially high,
ZH: 这意味着多空双方的概率都不是特别高
18:26 - 18:32
EN: and therefore a reasonable minimal reward is always two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 因此合理的最低利润就是实际风险的两倍
18:32 - 18:38
EN: If the Actual Risk is too small, a lot of traders will go
ZH: 如果实际风险太小，许多交易者会去追求两倍于初始风险的利润
18:36 - 18:38
EN: for a reward that is two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 如果实际风险太小，许多交易者会去追求两倍于初始风险的利润
18:40 - 18:44
EN: Two times Actual Risk always results in a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 两倍实际风险足以让数学期望为正
18:44 - 18:49
EN: and since Initial Risk is almost always at least as big as Actual Risk,
ZH: 因为初始风险一定大于等于实际风险 （注：除非你不止损，导致实际风险更大）
18:49 - 18:55
EN: if you go for two times Initial Risk,
ZH: 所以，如果你追求两倍于初始风险的利润， 数学期望一定更加好
18:52 - 18:55
EN: that will also always result in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 所以，如果你追求两倍于初始风险的利润， 数学期望一定更加好
19:00 - 19:03
EN: Let’s say a trader saw a bull trend, a 50% pullback,
ZH: 假设交易者看到上涨趋势，50%回调
19:03 - 19:05
EN: and they bought above the high of this bull bar.
ZH: 他们在这个阳线的高点上方买入
19:07 - 19:10
EN: Their idea is either it’s a pullback
ZH: 他们的假设是，要么这是上涨趋势中的回调
19:10 - 19:14
EN: in a bull trend or a pullback in a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么是震荡区间中的回调
19:14 - 19:18
EN: Maybe the market will simply go up to that high and go sideways.
ZH: 也许市场涨到前期高点之后，会开始横盘
19:18 - 19:20
EN: In either case, it’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 无论哪种情况，这都是一个合理的买点
19:24 - 19:28
EN: And let’s say he puts his stop just below the low of his buy signal bar.
ZH: 假设他把止损放在做多信号K线的下方
19:29 - 19:35
EN: Then his Initial Risk is from his entry price here to his stop
ZH: 那么他的初始风险是：从入场价到止损—— 就在做多信号K线下方
19:33 - 19:35
EN: just below his buy signal bar there.
ZH: 那么他的初始风险是：从入场价到止损—— 就在做多信号K线下方
19:40 - 19:48
EN: As I said, the math is always good to take profits
ZH: 刚才提到，在两倍实际风险，或两倍初始风险的地方止盈， 在数学上肯定是合理的做法
19:44 - 19:48
EN: at two times Actual Risk or two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 刚才提到，在两倍实际风险，或两倍初始风险的地方止盈， 在数学上肯定是合理的做法
19:48 - 19:51
EN: Here, here’s one times Initial Risk right here,
ZH: 一倍初始风险在这里，
19:51 - 19:54
EN: and here’s two times Initial Risk right here.
ZH: 两倍初始风险在这里
19:54 - 19:59
EN: Therefore, it’s mathematically reasonable to take partial or full profits here
ZH: 因此，在这里止盈部分或全部，在数学上是合理的
19:59 - 20:03
EN: if you bought there and put a stop here below your buy signal bar.
ZH: 如果你在那里买入，然后把止损放在做多信号K线的下方
Slide 014
Time: 20:10
Bilingual Transcript
20:11 - 20:16
EN: We have a breakout here, a pullback, and a strong Buy Climax.
ZH: 突破，回调，强势的抢购高潮
20:16 - 20:19
EN: If you’re buying this close, you need a wide stop
ZH: 如果你在她的收盘买入，你需要用到宽止损
20:19 - 20:23
EN: - either below the Buy Climax bottom or below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: ——要么在抢购高潮的起点下方， 要么在整个上涨趋势的起点下方
20:26 - 20:30
EN: Let’s say you buy that close and you’re disappointed by this,
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘买入，并对回调感到失望
20:30 - 20:32
EN: but your premise of a bull trend is still valid
ZH: 但你认为上涨趋势的前提仍然有效
20:32 - 20:35
EN: in your mind and you rely on your stop.
ZH: 所以你决定依赖初始止损
20:40 - 20:42
EN: The market starts to go your way.
ZH: 最终市场恢复上涨
20:42 - 20:46
EN: Actual Risk is from your entry price, which is buying this close,
ZH: 实际风险是：从你的入场价格——即这个收盘价
20:46 - 20:48
EN: to just below the low of the pullback.
ZH: 到回调的最低点
20:49 - 20:51
EN: This is the size of your Actual Risk.
ZH: 这是实际风险的大小
20:53 - 20:56
EN: You bought a strong bull breakout.
ZH: 你在强势突破的时候买入
20:56 - 21:02
EN: 60% chance you’ll get a move up that is at least as big as your Actual Risk.
ZH: 60%的概率，涨幅至少会等于你的实际风险
21:03 - 21:05
EN: This is your target, up here.
ZH: 你的目标就在这个位置
21:05 - 21:09
EN: Here’s your Actual Risk, from your entry price to your stop.
ZH: 这是你的实际风险——从入场价格到止损的距离
21:09 - 21:12
EN: That’s how much you actually had to risk.
ZH: 这是你在这笔交易中实际上所承担的风险
21:12 - 21:13
EN: This is a reasonable target,
ZH: 这是一个合理的目标
21:13 - 21:16
EN: one times your Actual Risk and a high probability buy.
ZH: 高胜率的做多机会，一倍实际盈亏比
21:21 - 21:23
EN: Yet we have a Double Top here.
ZH: 然而在这里出现了一个双顶
21:24 - 21:27
EN: The bulls tried to get to that target here and failed.
ZH: 多头尝试达到那个目标，但是失败了
21:27 - 21:31
EN: They tried strongly to get to that target and failed again.
ZH: 再次尝试，又失败了
21:31 - 21:32
EN: What do you do?
ZH: 你该怎么办？
21:37 - 21:39
EN: I would exit longs.
ZH: 我会平仓离场
21:39 - 21:43
EN: Since the bulls twice tried to get to their target and were unable to get there,
ZH: 既然多头两次尝试达到他们的目标，但是都失败了
21:43 - 21:47
EN: and we have 2 decent bear bars, the market traded below,
ZH: 并且有2根不错的阴线
21:47 - 21:50
EN: and if the market goes below here again a second time,
ZH: 然后市场第2次反转下跌
21:50 - 21:53
EN: it’s a second entry sell, maybe for a Wedge.
ZH: 这是空头的第2做空入场点； 另外还有大的楔形顶
21:53 - 21:56
EN: One reversal down, two reversals down,
ZH: 一次反转下跌，两次反转下跌
21:56 - 21:58
EN: three reversals down, and now a second entry.
ZH: 三次反转下跌，又是第2做空入场点
21:59 - 22:03
EN: It’s reasonable to get out here, even though the market did not reach your target.
ZH: 提前离场是合理的，尽管市场还没有达到你的目标
22:03 - 22:05
EN: Your premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 因为你的前提已经不再成立
22:05 - 22:07
EN: You bought what you thought was a bull trend,
ZH: 你认为这是强上涨趋势，所以买入 （注：但是很快就深度回调）
22:07 - 22:10
EN: and now we have a Wedge Top or a Double Top.
ZH: 现在又出现了楔形顶+双顶 （注：反转风险很大）
Slide 015
Time: 22:15
Bilingual Transcript
22:15 - 22:19
EN: I began talking about the Trader’s Equation and risk.
ZH: 这节课我先讲了数学期望和风险
22:19 - 22:21
EN: There are actually two kinds of risk.
ZH: 事实上，有两种风险
22:21 - 22:23
EN: Initial Risk, the distance to your stop.
ZH: 初始风险——入场价格到初始止损的距离
22:23 - 22:25
EN: Everyone has a different stop location,
ZH: 每个人的初始止损位置不同
22:25 - 22:28
EN: and therefore everyone has a different Initial Risk.
ZH: 因此每个人的初始风险不同
22:29 - 22:32
EN: Once you’re in a trade and the market strongly goes your way,
ZH: 开仓之后，一旦市场朝着你的方向强势突破
22:32 - 22:35
EN: you can look back and find out where the perfect stop had to be.
ZH: 你就可以找到“完美的止损”在哪里
22:35 - 22:40
EN: Where would you have had to have a stop so that you would not get stopped out?
ZH: 最小把止损放在哪里，就可以避免被打到？
22:41 - 22:45
EN: That is your Actual Risk: from your entry price to the perfect stop.
ZH: 那就是你的实际风险：从入场价格，到完美止损的距离
22:50 - 22:51
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
22:51 - 22:54
EN: This is the first of two videos on Actual Risk.
ZH: 实际风险的第1节课，就先讲到这里
22:54 - 22:57
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程